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NFL.com's Bucky Brooks has Mariota Falling to #13 w/ Saints


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bucky brooks "outstanding pocket passer"

 

outstanding

pocket

passer

 

"everything you want in a franchise quarterback"

 

 

get on the train shane

 

 

https://youtu.be/0guPsv-4zX4

Love the qualifier--universally repeated in these Mariota evals--"but can he throw those NFL style passes?" Very reassuring. Again, you're drafting a QB whose weakness is passing the football. But, hey, 4.4 speed, baby.

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There was an article in the ESPN Insider that says Oakland should upgrade their QB position by selecting Mariota. http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/draft2015/story/_/id/12522570/oakland-raiders-replace-derek-carr-marcus-mariota-2015-nfl-draft

Here is a part of the article for those don't have access.

On the surface Carr's rookie campaign compares favorably to other recent seasons by rookie QBs. He threw fewer interceptions (12) and completed a higher percentage of passes (58.1 percent) than Andrew Luck did (18, 54.1 percent) and he was the ninth rookie since the merger to throw at least 20 touchdown passes (21).

A deeper dive into Carr's numbers suggest his 2014 season left a lot to be desired, however. Carr finished the season with a 38.4 Total QBR, which ranked 28th out of 33 qualified quarterbacks. His QBR didn't rank favorably among other recent rookies, either. Of the 27 rookies to qualify since 2006 -- as far back as Total QBR data goes -- Carr's QBR ranks 15th, sandwiched between EJ Manuel (38.4) and Geno Smith (35.9).

Carr's QBR suffered because of minimal gains made on his passes. He averaged a mere 5.46 yards per attempt last season, which was not only worst in the NFL last season, it was one of the worst all time.

In the history of the NFL, only three quarterbacks have thrown at least 500 passes in a season and averaged fewer than 5.50 yards per attempt: Carr, Joey Harrington and Chris Weinke. Harrington and Weinke both did so within the first two years of their careers, and neither lasted long in the NFL.

Carr's inability to hit the deep ball contributed to his low yards per attempt. Carr completed a league-worst 22.4 percent of his passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield last season, and it's not as though his receivers were to blame. The Raiders lacked big-name receivers in 2013 as well, but the team ranked 12th overall completing deep passes (38.1 percent).

Was Carr's 2014 season a true showcase of the player he is and will be, or is it too early to tell?

ESPN Insider Mike Sando explored the topic last April and found that quarterbacks generally don't show great improvement in Total QBR beyond their first 16 starts.

There have been 44 quarterbacks to make their first 16 NFL starts since 2006 (not including Carr), and the average difference in QBR from their first 16 starts and their career totals is just 5.1 points.

Quarterbacks who started with a QBR under 40 (as Carr did) have seen even smaller differences (3.9 points on average). The biggest increase was by Mark Sanchez, whose career QBR is 9.8 points better than his first 16 starts (28.9).

A QBR of 50.0 is considered average, so Carr would need an improvement of nearly 12 points over his career to reach that mark. Only Matthew Stafford, who has improved by 13.4 points from his first 16 starts, has reached those levels. Stafford also had the talent level to be drafted No. 1 overall in 2009, and dealt with injuries early in his career.

It's possible Carr can improve upon his first 16 starts, and adding stability to the running game or drafting a top wide receiver would potentially help that endeavor. But regardless of the moves the Raiders could make, it's unlikely he'll improve to the level of an above-average NFL starter.

Best for business

Since their last playoff appearance in 2002 the Raiders have posted the worst winning percentage in the NFL, going 56-136 (.292). The Raiders have started 18 quarterbacks in that span and only Jason Campbell has a winning record (11-7). It's no coincidence, either, that the winningest teams in this time frame (Patriots, Colts, Steelers, Packers, Broncos) all benefited from elite quarterback play.

Since the JaMarcus Russell disaster, the Raiders simply haven't been in a position to draft a top quarterback prospect like Mariota, either by their own doings (trades) or by not bottoming out far enough. The Raiders didn't have a first-round pick in either 2011 or 2012, and picked 12th and fifth the past two years. The Raiders tried acquiring quarterbacks in that stretch, utilizing eight picks from 2012-14 to acquire seven quarterbacks, but that strategy has not helped matters.

Raiders Draft Picks Used To Acquire QBs Since 2007

Quarterback Pick Used How Acquired

Derek Carr 2014 2nd Round Draft

Matt Flynn 2014 5th Round Trade

Matt Schaub 2014 6th Round Trade

Carson Palmer 2013 2nd Round Trade

Tyler Wilson 2013 4th Round Draft

Terrelle Pryor 2012 3rd Round Supplemental Draft

Jason Campbell 2012 4th Round Trade

It might seem like overkill to add Mariota to that list, but if Carr doesn't improve enough, the Raiders would be right back in this position again, hoping a top prospect is available when they pick.

Mariota carries the potential of a franchise quarterback, something Carr has yet to display at either level. In college Carr logged three full seasons as Fresno State's quarterback and never posted a QBR season higher than 77.0. By comparison, Mariota's worst QBR in three seasons as Oregon's starter was 86.2.

Their performances at the collegiate level could be indicative of their ceilings in the professional ranks. There were 83 college quarterbacks from 2004-14 who logged three or more seasons of sub-80 QBRs. That group saw seven NFL starters last season: Carr, Nick Foles, Geno Smith, Austin Davis, Christian Ponder, Jake Locker and Chad Henne. As of now, Foles and Carr appear to be the only two of that group with a starting job in 2015. Quarterbacks with at least one season of QBR at or above 80 in the past 10 collegiate seasons include Luck, Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Alex Smith, Teddy Bridgewater, Andy Dalton, Robert Griffin III and Sam Bradford.

Adding Mariota wouldn't hurt the Raiders financially either. Carr's contract goes through the 2017 season and doesn't count more than $1.7 million against the cap in any year, which makes him a trade asset (it's not unreasonable to think the Raiders could land a second- and fourth-rounder for Carr, given the need at the QB position for many teams in the league), and at worst a fairly priced backup.

Mariota also may help attract free agents to Oakland. Despite entering this free-agency period with the second-most cap space available, the Raiders have been unable to attract impact players. Center Rodney Hudson and linebacker Curtis Lofton are the only two players the Raiders have signed this offseason who played half their team's snaps last season.

The numbers suggest Carr is unlikely to develop into anything more than an average NFL QB. On draft day the Raiders could find themselves in a position to improve the most important position, and that's an opportunity they shouldn't let pass by.

Everyone (coaches and players ) that have seen Derek Carr play, know the Raiders have found their franchise Qb.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/03/24/andy-reid-impressed-by-derek-carr/ ask Darrelle Revis how good Derek Carr is as carr went right after him.

The Raiders have to upgrade some more pieces on offense, but Derek Carr isn't one of them. maybe the Raiders will trade Carr to the Jets- Not.

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I respectfully disagree. The pass rushers will be asked to continue doing what they've been doing up to this point and will all be able to contribute in some capacity from day one. There are many things Mariota will be asked to do that he has never done before, therefore nobody knows if he can do them at all.

Go look at the 2013 draft. These "pass-rushers" are doing what they were asked to do in college. Early first round QBs have the same bust rate as other positions. Which is why the Jets MUST take MM if he is there.

Ziggy Ansah-good

Barkavious Mingo- meh... average

Dion Jordan-bust

Jarvis Jones- couldn't even crack the starting lineup. Bust.

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Go look at the 2013 draft. These "pass-rushers" are doing what they were asked to do in college. Early first round QBs have the same bust rate as other positions. Which is why the Jets MUST take MM if he is there.

Ziggy Ansah-good

Barkavious Mingo- meh... average

Dion Jordan-bust

Jarvis Jones- couldn't even crack the starting lineup. Bust.

 

I fully understand what it is you are trying to say.  My point is that if I  had to choose between two players and one had excelled at doing what I wanted him to do, while the other hadn't even attempted it, I'd go with the guy who has shown he has the ability to do what I need him to do.

 

As far as who will bust and who will not among the LBers, I have no idea and neither do you.  It's a 100% guess.  Ansha, Mingo, Jordan and Jones have noting to do with Fowler, Beasley and Thompson.  They are different players.  They could all go on to be hall of famers or they could all be working for Vernon Gholston before their rookie contracts expire.

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Mariota has the potential and, more importantly, the attitude to play at the level of the following;

Cunningham....Flacco..McNair...maybe even Tarkenton.

Or he could bust like Harrington and Ponder.

The one thing I am fairly sure of.. if he busts, it wont be because of his attitude and for lack of effort.

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Mariota has the potential and, more importantly, the attitude to play at the level of the following;

Cunningham....Flacco..McNair...maybe even Tarkenton.

Or he could bust like Harrington and Ponder.

The one thing I am fairly sure of.. if he busts, it wont be because of his attitude and for lack of effort.

Vince Young without the character flaws.

And the titans are trading him to philly for Bradford and picks. Whisenhunt publicly declaring him as his starter is a trade negotiation.

He'll be good if he plays in Kelly's offense. Any other team he would be a bust.

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Mariota is the safest and smartest pick for the new regime. they can sit him for a couple of years while he learns and build excitement for the future of the team. Once they play him they'll get at least another couple of years to see if he works out. if he doesn't work out and they need to start over with another QB, Bowles can buy himself that time by showing he can coach a top defense ala Rex Ryan.

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Mariota is the safest and smartest pick for the new regime. they can sit him for a couple of years while he learns and build excitement for the future of the team. Once they play him they'll get at least another couple of years to see if he works out. if he doesn't work out and they need to start over with another QB, Bowles can buy himself that time by showing he can coach a top defense ala Rex Ryan.

What the **** is this sh*t?

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Matt Millerfwiw has Mariota at 2, with the Jets first four picks being: 1. Fowler, 2. Melvin Gordon, 3. Rob Havenstein, 4. Garrett Grayson

I'm seeing that on a lot of updated mock drafts.. I like this one for the Jets   http://www.drafttek.com/2015-NFL-Mock-Draft-Round1.asp  All 7 rds minus the 5th and 6th  The jets would have to decide between Fowler and Cooper at pick 6..

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Mariota is the safest and smartest pick for the new regime. they can sit him for a couple of years while he learns and build excitement for the future of the team. Once they play him they'll get at least another couple of years to see if he works out. if he doesn't work out and they need to start over with another QB, Bowles can buy himself that time by showing he can coach a top defense ala Rex Ryan.

 

Safest and smartest?? :russian:

 

With the #6 pick in the draft the smartest thing to do is pick the player that your management/scouting  team has evaluated and feel will be an impact player for years to come.  If they think Mariota is the guy then so be it but who in their right mind picks him to be safe and hopes the coach buys time until he or another QB is ready? 

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A lot of factors come into play when thinking whether a QB will fall lower than expected or not.  Not all of them are to do with the player.  For Mariota teams have to look at or be affect by:

 

- This is a copy cat league and recent success or failure of a player type can have an affect.  Everyone was in love with a Mariota type QB a year or so ago.  However Kaerpnick takes a step back .  RG3 turns into a pumpkin.  suddenly teams wonder about injury risk, has the league figured these guys out etc.

 

- Recent failure of a position in the draft.  Every one needs a Qb so if you don;t have one you better go get one.  But what if a good one is really not there?  Are you forcing up the value of the position?  Ponder, Gabbert, Locke etc....  All guys who were really not that good but their value was forced up, here we are a few years later and those teams still needed a QB.

 

- Success of lower chosen QB's.  Lets look at last year, Bridgewater....falls.,, has a bad pro day, however he gets picked lower and looks really good, like a true prospect.

 

- Is my job on the line, if you are a new regime you can go for it and get your qb.  but what if you are a front office in a tenous position, risk our high pick on a qb or go for a a more sure player.

 

- System, we've seen it before for both offense and defense, pick a player and then shoe horn him into a system not good for them.  If a team is not running an offense good for Mariota you pass.

 

All factors outside of the Qb evaluation itself.  Probably the biggest one of all is simply who else is available, 'Gee I like Mariota but we feel Fowler can be suggs version 2'

 

He could easily fall into the teens, someone falls every single year.

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Sign me up

 

 

Tom, 

 

Can we get a "sticky" on mock drafts from around the internet.  We can post links or the actual mocks when we come across and are updated daily/weekly.  Figured it would be easier to find them here than going to multiple sites daily.  

 

Just a thought.. 

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Tom, 

 

Can we get a "sticky" on mock drafts from around the internet.  We can post links or the actual mocks when we come across and are updated daily/weekly.  Figured it would be easier to find them here than going to multiple sites daily.  

 

Just a thought.. 

 

 

Haha.  T0m as source of authority.  Awesomeness.

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Safest and smartest?? :russian:

 

With the #6 pick in the draft the smartest thing to do is pick the player that your management/scouting  team has evaluated and feel will be an impact player for years to come.  If they think Mariota is the guy then so be it but who in their right mind picks him to be safe and hopes the coach buys time until he or another QB is ready? 

Is that the smartest thing to do? How many 1st round disappointments are there every year? The best scouts miss on prospects as much as they hit on them. The draft, as we all know, is a crap shoot. With Mariota, though, there is another dimension to picking him that would make him more attractive than the other candidates. He would automatically add more years to their tenure with the jets whether he succeeds or not. Of course if he succeeds then they've struck gold. On the other hand, if they were to pick an OLB/passrusher or a WR who busts or is a jag. It will hurt them. They still won't have a QB and now they blew their first draft. There's motivation to pick mariota even if they are not blown away by him. 

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Is that the smartest thing to do? How many 1st round disappointments are there every year? The best scouts miss on prospects as much as they hit on them. The draft, as we all know, is a crap shoot. With Mariota, though, there is another dimension to picking him that would make him more attractive than the other candidates. He would automatically add more years to their tenure with the jets whether he succeeds or not. Of course if he succeeds then they've struck gold. On the other hand, if they were to pick an OLB/passrusher or a WR who busts or is a jag. It will hurt them. They still won't have a QB and now they blew their first draft. There's motivation to pick mariota even if they are not blown away by him. 

So make the same blunder as other dumb gms?

 

Who would you rather have Sheldon Richardson or Ponder/Gabbert/Locker.

 

Hey Mariota might be the guy they like and take but it's a flat our organizational error to elevate the level of a player due to his position.  Take a QB at some point in each draft until you find one?  sure, go for it.  Take a QB high because he is one of the highest rated guys in a QB poor draft, while ignoring potential 10 year start players?  flat out dumb.

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So make the same blunder as other dumb gms?

 

Who would you rather have Sheldon Richardson or Ponder/Gabbert/Locker.

 

Hey Mariota might be the guy they like and take but it's a flat our organizational error to elevate the level of a player due to his position.  Take a QB at some point in each draft until you find one?  sure, go for it.  Take a QB high because he is one of the highest rated guys in a QB poor draft, while ignoring potential 10 year start players?  flat out dumb.

20/20 hindsight. the point here is that we don't know who will succeed. and mariota is different than ponder/gabbert/locker because he won't be starting right away. he will be learning on the sidelines for a couple of years. that wouldn't be a dumb move on their part. and the door would still be open to acquiring another QB down the line when and if they feel it's necessary.

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20/20 hindsight. the point here is that we don't know who will succeed. and mariota is different than ponder/gabbert/locker because he won't be starting right away. he will be learning on the sidelines for a couple of years. that wouldn't be a dumb move on their part. and the door would still be open to acquiring another QB down the line when and if they feel it's necessary.

You don't draft a guy at 6 overall to learn for two years, you simply don't.  You draft a guy in the later rounds and let them sit and develop for two years.  Or if you are already a really good team and have a good QB ala the packers of years ago you draft a guy who falls and let him sit.

 

With lots of other high end prospects in the top 10 no one, not one team is going to draft a guy knowing he has to sit for two years.

 

Oh and your use of 20 20 hindsight is not correct.  A lot of people including me shook their heads at some of those QB's going where they did at the time.  With your theory the jets draft geno smith at 13 two years ago and pass on sheldon Richardson.

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You don't draft a guy at 6 overall to learn for two years, you simply don't.  You draft a guy in the later rounds and let them sit and develop for two years.  Or if you are already a really good team and have a good QB ala the packers of years ago you draft a guy who falls and let him sit.

 

With lots of other high end prospects in the top 10 no one, not one team is going to draft a guy knowing he has to sit for two years.

 

Oh and your use of 20 20 hindsight is not correct.  A lot of people including me shook their heads at some of those QB's going where they did at the time.  With your theory the jets draft geno smith at 13 two years ago and pass on sheldon Richardson.

20/20 hindsight was for your comparing richardson to the QBs. I understand the thinking for the top 10 or 15 players being drafted to make an immediate impact, but with all the QBs that fail who start right away, would anyone blame the Jets for being patient if they selected mariota and had him sit for a while? would it hurt the gm or hc? not for a long while and that's only if mariota busts. and that's the point. 

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20/20 hindsight was for your comparing richardson to the QBs. I understand the thinking for the top 10 or 15 players being drafted to make an immediate impact, but with all the QBs that fail who start right away, would anyone blame the Jets for being patient if they selected mariota and had him sit for a while? would it hurt the gm or hc? not for a long while and that's only if mariota busts. and that's the point. 

Yeah they would blame them big time if Kevin White becomes julio Jones or odell beckham, fowler becomes von miller and our 1st rounder is on the bench and will be on the bench next year at which time he might be able to contribute, especially when the fa selections are a year older.

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Yeah they would blame them big time if Kevin White becomes julio Jones or odell beckham, fowler becomes von miller and our 1st rounder is on the bench and will be on the bench next year at which time he might be able to contribute, especially when the fa selections are a year older.

 

no one is in danger of becoming ODB or julio jones with geno/fitz behind center

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no one is in danger of becoming ODB or julio jones with geno/fitz behind center

Great receivers make their QBs look far better than they are.  Goo thing Eli threw that perfect pass to OBJ just so he could catch falling back with his finger nails.

 

If you don't want WR's fine, pick an OLB, or an olineman or a whatever position you wish.  Picking a QB at 6 because 'we don;t have one' is foolish in the long run.

 

If you really think the guy is worthy of the pick and is real franchise QB go for it, just don't fall or the error of raising guys up the board just because of the hole you have.

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Yeah they would blame them big time if Kevin White becomes julio Jones or odell beckham, fowler becomes von miller and our 1st rounder is on the bench and will be on the bench next year at which time he might be able to contribute, especially when the fa selections are a year older.

except the 1st rounder sitting on the bench would be a potential franchise QB. as fans we don't want to wait for him to get on the field. but the gm and coach would have no problem waiting. and until he busts, no matter how the other drafted players do, it's all good for them.

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Great receivers make their QBs look far better than they are.  Goo thing Eli threw that perfect pass to OBJ just so he could catch falling back with his finger nails.

 

If you don't want WR's fine, pick an OLB, or an olineman or a whatever position you wish.  Picking a QB at 6 because 'we don;t have one' is foolish in the long run.

 

If you really think the guy is worthy of the pick and is real franchise QB go for it, just don't fall or the error of raising guys up the board just because of the hole you have.

 

i'd rather go Oline personally, all things being equal.

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except the 1st rounder sitting on the bench would be a potential franchise QB. as fans we don't want to wait for him to get on the field. but the gm and coach would have no problem waiting. and until he busts, no matter how the other drafted players do, it's all good for them.

If you think he is a real viable option to be a franchise QB you draft him, I've said that all along.  Some of the examples of busts I listed were teams 'hoping' a guy might be franchise guy, boosting their value and then watching as better players were drafted that they by passed.

 

You think Mariota is a sure fire franchise guy if given time, thus you go ahead and draft him.

 

I think he is the 2nd best QB in a weak Qb draft class that has some tools but is far from a sure fire thing.  I'll take a guy I feel is more likely to turn out as a player.

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Is that the smartest thing to do? How many 1st round disappointments are there every year? The best scouts miss on prospects as much as they hit on them. The draft, as we all know, is a crap shoot. With Mariota, though, there is another dimension to picking him that would make him more attractive than the other candidates. He would automatically add more years to their tenure with the jets whether he succeeds or not. Of course if he succeeds then they've struck gold. On the other hand, if they were to pick an OLB/passrusher or a WR who busts or is a jag. It will hurt them. They still won't have a QB and now they blew their first draft. There's motivation to pick mariota even if they are not blown away by him. 

 

"He would automatically add more years to their tenure with the jets whether he succeeds or not." That might be the craziest thing I have read on this board since I joined

 

I said they should pick sthe player that the  management/scouting  team has evaluated and feel will be an impact player for years to come.   Of course there are no guarantees with any player selected at any point in the draft.  If they feel that Mariota is that guy then please pick him and hopefully they are right.  If they feel that Cooper is the best WR since Jerry Rice then they should pick him, or Fowler is the next Ray Rice...pick him.  But don't pick someone at #6 because he is attractive and can extend their tenure here whether he is good or not ..  Our new regime is about making our squad successful and making what they think is the best decisions for the organization.  If it works out then they will have tenure.  

 

And Geno didnt extend anyone's tenure here did he?'

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"He would automatically add more years to their tenure with the jets whether he succeeds or not." That might be the craziest thing I have read on this board since I joined

 

I said they should pick sthe player that the  management/scouting  team has evaluated and feel will be an impact player for years to come.   Of course there are no guarantees with any player selected at any point in the draft.  If they feel that Mariota is that guy then please pick him and hopefully they are right.  If they feel that Cooper is the best WR since Jerry Rice then they should pick him, or Fowler is the next Ray Rice...pick him.  But don't pick someone at #6 because he is attractive and can extend their tenure here whether he is good or not ..  Our new regime is about making our squad successful and making what they think is the best decisions for the organization.  If it works out then they will have tenure.  

 

And Geno didnt extend anyone's tenure here did he?'

You could say he shortened the tenure of the GM and HC..LOL

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Love the qualifier--universally repeated in these Mariota evals--"but can he throw those NFL style passes?" Very reassuring. Again, you're drafting a QB whose weakness is passing the football. But, hey, 4.4 speed, baby.

 

he's not an andrew luck type of prospect.  he is kap or wilson.  both better than anything we have hod for DECADES

 

you left out how if he can make those throws, he will be "unlike anything we have seen in the NFL"

 

and  "he has a strong arm"

 

give me all that raw ability combined with the character and work ethic over harvard and geno a trillion times.  eleventy trillion to be exact

 

get on board

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he's not an andrew luck type of prospect. 

 

 

Go on...

 

 

 he is kap or wilson.

 

How so?

 

 

 both better than anything we have hod for DECADES

 

Kaepernick and Wilson are better than the quarterbacks we've had recently, yes.

 

 

 

 

you left out how if he can make those throws, he will be "unlike anything we have seen in the NFL"

 

It'd be "unlike anything we have seen in the NFL" because nobody has ever come to the NFL and become a better passer.

 

 

and  "he has a strong arm"

 

Not really.

 

 

 

 

give me all that raw ability combined with the character and work ethic over harvard and geno a trillion times.  eleventy trillion to be exact

 

*Tebow

 

 

get on board

 

Breakthru

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