Why Russell Wilson and Seahawks are at impasse over new contract ~ ~ ~

[kelly]

The arithmetic in the complex equation of Russell Wilson's next contract might boil down to a single question: Are the Seattle Seahawks willing to reward a player, even one as successful as Wilson has been, with a raise of roughly 20 times what he has been making in three years as their starting quarterback ?

 

Certainly there are other issues at play in what has been anything but a smooth negotiation, but, at its core, the salient issue might be exactly this. This is not a situation where Wilson was a big-money bonus baby, or even a second-round pick. This isn't an already fairly handsomely compensated former high pick, like Matt Ryan or Matthew Stafford or Joe Flacco, going from $8 million or $13 million or $15 million up to the $18 million-$20 million range. This is a young man who wasn't selected until 75th overall, who has played exemplary football but has certainly been aided by a stout running game and historically significant defense. He plays on a team loaded with guys already among the highest paid in the NFL at their positions. And he is scheduled to make just $1.5 million in 2015 and $3 million total over the four years of his rookie deal. Now he could quite logically argue that he merits being paid in the range of $20 million a year with the Flaccos and Ryans.

 

Taking what had been the best bargain in all of pro sports the past three years -- maybe in the history of the NFL -- averaging just $750,000 a year and paying him $20 million a season with, say, $80 million guaranteed, would be a huge pill for anyone to swallow. Other Seahawks stars like Bobby Wagner still need new deals and the team just tore up Marshawn Lynch's deal again a few weeks back. You just don't see that happen very often, a leap of that magnitude, for any player. It's one of many elements that make Wilson something of an anomaly and what makes the intricacies of this negotiation so compelling to watch unfold. There isn't a whole lot of precedent for a case quite like this, and the lack of any momentum to this point has been telling.

 

With the draft behind us, minicamps creeping up and the start of training camp a little more than two months off, the difficultly of swallowing a $19 million-a-year raise, as much as anything else, might best explain where we sit. What I know is the Seahawks' initial offer looked very much like the sort of band-aid bridge contracts that went to Andy Dalton and Colin Kaepernick, according to sources, with signing bonuses more in line with the $11 million Seattle handed out recently to Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas, and a pay-as-you-go structure like the lesser Dalton/Kaepernick deals. The average per year is nowhere close to the range of the top quarterbacks in the NFL, and with Ben Roethlisberger recently joining that club and Andrew Luck and Cam Newton poised to do the same in the next 12 months, I would be absolutely shocked if Wilson did any deal that wouldn't put him among the best in the game.

 

As we play this forward, there isn't any reason to believe either side will significantly alter its evaluation of the situation to the degree necessary to strike a deal -- nothing is going to happen between now and training camp to alter the landscape -- and the only way to compile more empirical evidence is for Wilson to play more games. That brings us back to what I have written before, which is Wilson playing out his rookie contract is quite possibly the most likely outcome given the state of these negotiations. In fact, I'm becoming increasingly convinced that short of owner Paul Allen inserting himself into the process and issuing a mandate to get this done this summer, well, this will linger into 2016.

 

Given the diametric differences between the sides in projecting Wilson's value, I'm not sure how much impact a counteroffer would make. The gulf is that extreme. And, with the kind of guaranteed money -- fully guaranteed money -- it would require to wrap this deal up soon, short of Allen doing an about face for the organization, it's difficult to imagine it being bridged in the near term.So the question becomes, at what point would Wilson, focusing on the season ahead and Seattle's arduous task to shrug off a heartbreaking Super Bowl loss and get back to that game, just opt to shut down talks entirely? Because knowing him, and how he thinks and operates, that day might come sooner than some would expect. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if it comes sometime in July rather than September. It's hard to picture this being an open topic of discussion and something Wilson would entertain by the start of camp.

 

The moment Wilson walks back on a field for full practice he begins to incur injury risk. And, as someone inherently wired to gamble on himself, if Seattle isn't inclined to pay what his representatives believe is his market value after three full seasons and what he has accomplished to this point, I see him throwing himself into his contract year and cutting off talks. Avoid the distraction. Focus on the task at hand. And, should we reach that point, the question becomes, when does Wilson continue the discussions in 2016? Perhaps not at all. That wouldn't surprise me, either.An exclusive-rights franchise tag could be worth upwards of $25 million for the 2016 season alone, and tagging him twice now is possibly pushing $55 million for two years. And if he played that out, he could potentially hit free agency before age 30, he would have finally made some real NFL money over two seasons, and, if he stays on anything close to the career arc he has been on, you're looking at potentially the most coveted free agent in NFL history. What's that going to be worth in 2017 NFL dollars, especially with the cap continuing to soar between now and then? Rather than go through another round of back-and-forth with the Seahawks, perhaps the simplest solution -- barring Allen simply making Wilson a $20 million man -- might be to let Seattle make a choice: Meet Wilson's pre-existing price (and that might soar depending on his production and any other quarterback deals that get done this year), franchise him, or trade him.

 

If I am the NFLPA, I would love to see that scenario unfold. Salaries rise the most when the very best players get to the market in their prime -- as evidence I present the example of Suh, Ndamukong shattering J.J. Watt's salary on the open market -- and the overwhelming reality is that healthy top quarterbacks simply never are out there for open bidding. In baseball, top pitchers routinely get to that stage, and earning records often follow. With Wilson's agent, Mark Rodgers, so steeped in that culture, I have a hard time seeing him relent here, regardless of the fact the NFL has silly and draconian funding stipulations (the fact that Allen, one of the richest people on the planet, would have to put $80 million in escrow up front if he issued a contract with that much money fully guaranteed isn't going to elicit a lot of tears in the agent community).

 

Say what you want about Rodgers, and the fact that he has worked primarily in baseball -- we all know how different baseball and football contracts are in terms of truly guaranteed money -- but he hasn't backed down with top clients in the past, he has done massive deals before and he isn't some rube who is going to flinch or blink just because he hasn't ever completed an NFL blockbuster deal. I'm sure he makes an easy target for many in the football media establishment, with Rodgers a perceived "outsider" and all, but no there might be no agent in the game with a more profound relationship with his client than Rodgers with Wilson, and I wouldn't mistake his lack of football dealings with naivety. I don't foresee client or agent being pushed around.

 

Just because it is outside Wilson's nature for him to consider a holdout or even a nominal transgression like skipping some OTAs, I wouldn't mistake that for weakness. Being the ultimate team player doesn't require that player to sign a contract he is not perfectly comfortable with. Playing out his rookie contract -- and giving the Seahawks a fourth straight year of ridiculous value in the meantime -- without complaint or incident would be a gift to the team in and of itself.Sure, getting this deal done now would take Seattle being willing to set a precedent with guaranteed money that its peers around the NFL would hate, and I can certainly understand them balking. But after playing for peanuts for three years that's hardly Wilson's problem. Getting him signed long-term right now is either essential or it is not. He is either the most important asset to the franchise or another malleable cog in a larger machine.

 

That decision, and the corresponding financial equation, doesn't have to be made now, or this summer, or even this year. But Wilson's development doesn't indicate that price will be coming down at all, and time will tell if there is a solution to this riddle that includes increasing the quarterback's annual compensation 20 fold.

 

> http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/jason-la-canfora/25178271/why-russell-wilson-and-seahawks-are-at-impasse-over-new-contract?FTAG=YHF7e3228e

[JohnnyLV]

Umm, we will trade a first next year for Wilson and pay him the $20 million he wants. Get it done.

[T0mShane]

**** Russell Wilson. Dude handed the Pats a title.

[jgb]

**** Russell Wilson. Dude handed the Pats a title.

 

The Bevil made him do it.

[T0mShane]

The Bevil made him do it.

Right play to the wrong receiver, coupled with a sh*tty pass.

[Matt39]

**** Russell Wilson. Dude handed the Pats a title.

 

He's a bit of a tool.

[jgb]

Right play to the wrong receiver, coupled with a sh*tty pass.

 

Yeah I do think it was borderline criminal to not have Wilson roll out if you wanted to try a pass. Get him out of the pocket so he can bleacher it if it isn't there

[Jetsfan80]

Umm, we will trade a first next year for Wilson and pay him the $20 million he wants. Get it done.

 

It would require three first rounders at minimum to obtain Wilson's services.  After all, if they were to, say, franchise tag him after the season, it would cost 2 first rounders to sign him away.  So nothing short of three 1st's would do.

 

Wilson isn't worth three firsts.  Let's see how he does without a dominant defense and running game.

[Beerfish]

I've said if before, I'll take the heat for saying it again, Wilson is an overrated QB.

[Jetsfan80]

I've said if before, I'll take the heat for saying it again, Wilson is an overrated QB.

 

You're not wrong.  Seattle will have a riot if they let him walk.  So Wilson will get Aaron Rodgers money or close to it.  He's a top 10 QB, but not top 2, yet that's exactly how he'll be paid; like the 2nd most valuable player in the entire league.  It's going to cause some major buyer's remorse for Seattle.  Yet they have no other choice.

[Lupz27]

I've said if before, I'll take the heat for saying it again, Wilson is an overrated QB.

While you might be right I can't wait for the day the Jets find this kind of overrated QB.

[Jetsfan80]

While you might be right I can't wait for the day the Jets find this kind of overrated QB.

 

Very true.  Beggars can't be choosers.  But if you told me we were going to go out and sign Russell Wilson and pay him $20M+ per on, potentially, a fully guaranteed deal.....I wouldn't be too happy.  Would you?  That's a franchise crippling contract.  Say so long to Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson as a result, plus others.

[Beerfish]

While you might be right I can't wait for the day the Jets find this kind of overrated QB.

I don't disagree as well.  I don't want to draw a real comparison ability wise because it is not close but he's a bit of a sanchez syndrome.  Comes into the perfect situation of a top 5 running game and defense.  Similar for me to Flacco, not at all the same type of QB but a guy that had a lot of things go his way and then was paid like a top notch Qb in this league to the detriment of the rest of the team.

[T0mShane]

He's a bit of a tool.

Disappeared for a week after the play and let everyone else get killed for it.

[T0mShane]

Yeah I do think it was borderline criminal to not have Wilson roll out if you wanted to try a pass. Get him out of the pocket so he can bleacher it if it isn't there

Not to get back into it, but the route was open, the ball was out in front, and the receiver shied away from contact on the play.

[Jetsfan80]

Disappeared for a week after the play and let everyone else get killed for it.

 

#BornLeader

#FaceOfTheFranchise

[jetsrebirth]

I honestly don't think Wilson is that great. He is a top 15 QB, but is not a top 10 IMO. He is not a QB that can carry a team by himself, and paying a QB like that Top 5 QB money is very dangerous.

[section314]

Not to get back into it, but the route was open, the ball was out in front, and the receiver shied away from contact on the play.

 

Marshawn Lynch. It's really pretty simple. 

[jgb]

Not to get back into it, but the route was open, the ball was out in front, and the receiver shied away from contact on the play.

 

Yeah probably best to not get back into it, been beat to death already

[jgb]

You're not wrong.  Seattle will have a riot if they let him walk.  So Wilson will get Aaron Rodgers money or close to it.  He's a top 10 QB, but not top 2, yet that's exactly how he'll be paid; like the 2nd most valuable player in the entire league.  It's going to cause some major buyer's remorse for Seattle.  Yet they have no other choice.

 

This is when you have to pay through the nose and hope the cap expands rapidly to make subsequent years be fair value

[Snell41]

This is interesting indeed because the NFL so heavily over-values SuperBowl winning QB's.  Let's face it, Eli Manning and Joe Flacco are your basic run of the mill QB's. Neither one is Canton worthy.  In fact without their rings they're borderline cringe-worthy.  With that said stability at the QB position has value in itself.  Year to year there are about 15 guys that play QB well enough to really be a true consideration long term.  If Wilson has proven that he can consistently be a top 15 QB then you have to pay him.  The odds don't play out well that you'll find better (see NY Jets) and if you don't pay him some other team damns sure will. 

[BurnleyJet]

**** Russell Wilson. Dude handed the Pats a title.

No your Boy "Idziks", Boy Quinn, handed the Pats the title.

[Jetsfan80]

This is interesting indeed because the NFL so heavily over-values SuperBowl winning QB's.  Let's face it, Eli Manning and Joe Flacco are your basic run of the mill QB's. Neither one is Canton worthy.  In fact without their rings they're borderline cringe-worthy.  With that said stability at the QB position has value in itself.  Year to year there are about 15 guys that play QB well enough to really be a true consideration long term.  If Wilson has proven that he can consistently be a top 15 QB then you have to pay him.  The odds don't play out well that you'll find better (see NY Jets) and if you don't pay him some other team damns sure will. 

 

Bingo.

 

"This always happens in America," Klinsmann, a native of Germany, said in the interview. "Kobe Bryant, for example -- why does he get a two-year contract extension for $50 million? Because of what he is going to do in the next two years for the Lakers? Of course not. Of course not. He gets it because of what he has done before. It makes no sense. Why do you pay for what has already happened?"

[Jetsfan80]

It's easy to tell a team that the right decision is to go against the grain:  DON'T pay your franchise QB excessively over what you think he's worth.  That's how teams like the Bengals (Dalton), Ravens (Flacco), 49ers (Kaep) and Chiefs (Alex Smith) end up in cap trouble.  Yes, there are very few QB's out there, but every QB has his pricetag, and it'll cripple you if you overpay a non-elite one.

 

But actually doing that is another thing.  Fan backlash and the fear that you'll never find another Russell Wilson are legitimate fears for a franchise.

[predator_05]

his is the highest selling jersey on nfl shop

[Snell41]

Bingo.

 

"This always happens in America," Klinsmann, a native of Germany, said in the interview. "Kobe Bryant, for example -- why does he get a two-year contract extension for $50 million? Because of what he is going to do in the next two years for the Lakers? Of course not. Of course not. He gets it because of what he has done before. It makes no sense. Why do you pay for what has already happened?"

I get what Klinsmann means, but his theory is flawed as well.  You don't know what a player is going to do for you.  Ever.  So you have to factor what they have done into the equation.  Klinsmann's ideal is an owner/GM's dream.  Using Wilson as an example he never did get paid for what he did so then what?  Unless the idea is incentive based pay, which I'm not against necessarily, but you can't do it with a salary cap.

[Jetsfan80]

I get what Klinsmann means, but his theory is flawed as well.  You don't know what a player is going to do for you.  Ever.  So you have to factor what they have done into the equation.  Klinsmann's ideal is an owner/GM's dream.  Using Wilson as an example he never did get paid for what he did so then what?  Unless the idea is incentive based pay, which I'm not against necessarily, but you can't do it with a salary cap.

 

Well his specific criticism, Kobe, was 100 % on point.  Dude was what, 38?  And you're giving him $25M per?  Without performance-enhancing drugs there's simply no way you're getting $25M per out of of Kobe at that age.

 

Now of course Kobe is still a solid draw for fans which has to be taken into account, but still, performance on the field/court is what should come first for a franchise.  It doesn't matter how many people come specifically to see Kobe, if the team isn't winning, they'll largely pay to go watch the Clippers instead.

[drdetroit]

Better shot of me getting rusty trombone from Scarlett Johansen than the jets ever getting Wilson.

[Snell41]

Well his specific criticism, Kobe, was 100 % on point.  Dude was what, 38?  And you're giving him $25M per?  Without performance-enhancing drugs there's simply no way you're getting $25M per out of of Kobe at that age.

 

Now of course Kobe is still a solid draw for fans which has to be taken into account, but still, performance on the field/court is what should come first for a franchise.  It doesn't matter how many people come specifically to see Kobe, if the team isn't winning, they'll largely pay to go watch the Clippers instead.

Absolutely.  But the bigger question is would (not should) another team in the league have paid him that much?  Sadly yes, because he does sell jerseys and he does put asses in seats.  There is also future value in the legacy by keeping a player.  And yes, there is a bit of a "thanks" overpayment for what the player has done or the franchise.  One thing I could venture is Kobe Bryant made the Lakers a whole lot more money than they actually paid him.  But I digress.

 

As for Wilson though, the question that must be considered is can he consistently be within the top 15 qb's year after year.  I feel that's the true question because the fact is year to year there are only about 10 guys that consistently remain a top 15 QB.  Maybe not even 10.  The remainder have guys that have a career year then drop, so that population of QB's always churns.  But there are roughly 10 that truly can stay top 15 year to year even on a down year.  If SEA considers Wilson one of those guys then you pay him that top dollar because you very likely will not find that guy otherwise over the same course of the career.  I roughly guess 1 out of every 3 years someone gets that type of QB.  I personally don't know that I feel Wilson is that kind of QB.  I think SEA has the opportunity to see however, because they have lost some talent his past offseason. 

[#27TheDominator]

The moment Wilson walks back on a field for full practice he begins to incur injury risk.

 

Just because it is outside Wilson's nature for him to consider a holdout or even a nominal transgression like skipping some OTAs,

 

There is a bit of a difference in injury risk between prancing around in a red blouse and slamming around in the trenches like Wilkerson.

 

I've said if before, I'll take the heat for saying it again, Wilson is an overrated QB.

 

I agree, but I'll take him over Kaepernick.

[Jetsfan80]

Absolutely.  But the bigger question is would (not should) another team in the league have paid him that much?  Sadly yes, because he does sell jerseys and he does put asses in seats.  There is also future value in the legacy by keeping a player.  And yes, there is a bit of a "thanks" overpayment for what the player has done or the franchise.  One thing I could venture is Kobe Bryant made the Lakers a whole lot more money than they actually paid him.  But I digress.

 

No, I really don't think anyone else would have paid him anywhere close to $50M at that age.  They were competing with themselves for his services and rewarding him for being a Laker for life.  They know how important he's been to the Laker brand for all these years.  It's a nice gesture but a dumb one in any league where there's anything close to a salary cap.

[Jetsfan80]

As for Wilson though, the question that must be considered is can he consistently be within the top 15 qb's year after year.  I feel that's the true question because the fact is year to year there are only about 10 guys that consistently remain a top 15 QB.  Maybe not even 10.  The remainder have guys that have a career year then drop, so that population of QB's always churns.  But there are roughly 10 that truly can stay top 15 year to year even on a down year.  If SEA considers Wilson one of those guys then you pay him that top dollar because you very likely will not find that guy otherwise over the same course of the career.  I roughly guess 1 out of every 3 years someone gets that type of QB.  I personally don't know that I feel Wilson is that kind of QB.  I think SEA has the opportunity to see however, because they have lost some talent his past offseason. 

 

They're definitely going to make sure to keep him.  But the internal debate that is slowing the process down is that they want to pay him top 10 QB money but not top 2 QB money.  That's why they lowballed him with the first offer, which would have given him something like Matthew Stafford money instead.  They won't find an Aaron Rodgers anytime soon but does that mean you pay a 2nd-tier guy Aaron Rodgers money just because of that?  Tough call.  But Wilson holds all the cards at the moment, unless he gets hurt next season, so one way or the other he'll get his $20M or so per.

[keysersoze]

I used to like Wilson for being an underdog guy who worked hard to get to where he's at. Now he's little more than a money-grubbing, home-wrecking douchebag .

[Snell41]

Absolutely. But the bigger question is would (not should) another team in the league have paid him that much? Sadly yes, because he does sell jerseys and he does put asses in seats. There is also future value in the legacy by keeping a player. And yes, there is a bit of a "thanks" overpayment for what the player has done or the franchise. One thing I could venture is Kobe Bryant made the Lakers a whole lot more money than they actually paid him. But I digress.

As for Wilson though, the question that must be considered is can he consistently be within the top 15 qb's year after year. I feel that's the true question because the fact is year to year there are only about 10 guys that consistently remain a top 15 QB. Maybe not even 10. The remainder have guys that have a career year then drop, so that population of QB's always churns. But there are roughly 10 that truly can stay top 15 year to year even on a down year. If SEA considers Wilson one of those guys then you pay him that top dollar because you very likely will not find that guy otherwise over the same course of the career. I roughly guess 1 out of every 3 years someone gets that type of QB. I personally don't know that I feel Wilson is that kind of QB. I think SEA has the opportunity to see however, because they have lost some talent his past offseason.

Seems like what was top 2 money becomes top 10 money in a blink of an eye. But SEA does hold all the cards because they can just trot him out this year under his current contract. If his play drops so does his value. If Wilson plays top 10-15 with what is perceived to be lesser talent, they'll have no choice but to pay him.

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[Snell41]

I used to like Wilson for being an underdog guy who worked hard to get to where he's at. Now he's little more than a money-grubbing, home-wrecking douchebag .

I don't know what your referring to with the home wrecking, but as for money grubbing the guy has been to 2 Superbowls as QB and makes less than a million a year.

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