kelly Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 New York Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick ranks eighth in the NFL in Total QBR and seventh in a metric called points above replacement, which measures the points a quarterback contributes to his team’s scoring margin, when compared to a fringe, replacement-level QB.This is highly unfamiliar territory for the Jets. Geno Smith ranked 25th in Total QBR in each of the last two seasons. Mark Sanchez’s peak was 19th in 2010. Brett Favre rated 22nd in his lone season. The only time in the last 10 seasons that a Jets quarterback ranked among the top 10 in Total QBR was in 2006 when Chad Pennington ranked eighth. Fitzpatrick doesn’t have the gunslinger arm that can hit the deep throw with regularity (his nine completions of 20 or more yards downfield rank tied for 24th) or the highly-consistent completion percentage (his rates slightly below NFL average). So what is it about him that these advanced stats like so much? As it turns out, it’s mostly about what he avoids. Sack avoidance The three sacks that Fitzpatrick took against the Giants were an aberration. Fitzpatrick has been sacked on only 3.1 percent of his dropbacks this season, the lowest rate among the 32 quarterbacks that qualify for that stat. The NFL rate is 5.7 percent.In other words: An average quarterback would have been sacked 25 times given the number of times Fitzpatrick has dropped back. Fitzpatrick has been sacked 14 times. In this case, what Fitzpatrick doesn’t do (take sacks) turns out to be very important. Avoiding tackles Fitzpatrick isn’t Cam Newton, Russell Wilson or even Alex Smith, but he’s not bad. He entered the week with 209 rushing yards, ninth-most among NFL quarterbacks. His 187 yards rushing when scrambling (scrambles are more highly valued in Total QBR) rank seventh.He had a big 18-yard touchdown run against the Redskins earlier this season and ran for 15 yards on fourth down in the final minute of the fourth quarter of the game-tying drive against the Giants.Fitzpatrick has an above average rate when it comes to third-down rushing, converting 9-of-14 into first downs. All six of his third-down scrambles netted a first down, which provided a nice boost to his QBE.If you take Fitzpatrick’s QBR just as it relates to running and avoiding sacks, he ranks No. 1 in the NFL. Avoiding major mistakes For the most part, Fitzpatrick has avoided the “oh no!” moments that have plagued Jets quarterbacks the last couple of seasons. And he’s had his share of good ones.Fitzpatrick has 28 plays that ranked in the top five percent in terms of expected points added this season (an example would be the game-tying touchdown pass to Brandon Marshall late in the fourth quarter against the Giants and the fourth-down run on that drive referenced earlier). Those 28 rank tied with Eli Manning for 12th in the NFL (and is only three plays out of seventh).But he only has 18 plays that rank in the bottom five percent (in terms of costing his team a chance to win). The only quarterback with fewer is Brian Hoyer, who has played three fewer games than Fitzpatrick this season. In summary When the Jets brought Fitzpatrick in this offseason, the talk was that his role was to be a game manager, to keep it safe, not do anything too risky, and make plays when he absolutely had to do so.The numbers show that Fitzpatrick has done that and then some, and the Jets have reaped the benefits in a big way. > http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/112377/why-does-ryan-fitzpatrick-rank-so-well-in-total-qbr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Long Island Leprechaun Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 So the gist of all this is that he plays smart. That Harvard degree is looming large once again. Seriously, what is not captured above is the improvement over time. Fitz is a better QB today than he was earlier in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Because he's FitzMAGIC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kelly Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 Because he's FitzMAGIC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Harper Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 And QBR is dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatsFanTX Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 And QBR is dumb. Other than the Bozo's at ESPN who came up with QBR, does anyone else pay any attention to this useless stat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Not only does Fitzpatrick not get sacked and runs for some yardage, but his INT's are not pick sixes. They are usually down the field some yardage so that the defense can get a crack. But mainly it's because of mobility. I have a feeling it was created for Tim Tebow. A stat where the mobility of a QB is a big part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JiFtheOracle Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I GUESS QBR DOESNT FACTOR IN THAT HE CANT WIN MORE THAN 6 GAMES??????!!!!!!!!!!!!??????????? sorry, had to villain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 And if you want to go by the old passer rating system, Tyrod Taylor is higher rated than Tom Brady. ANd here's another thing. QBs seem to be completing a ton of their passes this year, which shows how good the Jets D really is, limiting QBs to 56% completion average. Fitz is completing 60.1% of his passes. That is 25th in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cant wait Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Because he's playing in a conservative system designed to minimize his limitations, and he's got two big TD magnets for WRs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kelly Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 Other than the Bozo's at ESPN who came up with QBR, does anyone else pay any attention to this useless stat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Long Island Leprechaun Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I could give a rat's @ss about QBR. But I stand by the point that Fitz has been a very solid game manager, has avoided major mistakes, and has improved as the season has progressed. That's all that matters. And he passes the cringe test. Meaning I don't cringe when I see him under center like I did when Geno was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 QBR is kind of silly, but the stat itself seems to match the article about Fitzpatrick earlier in the season which stated that guys like him will "fail more preferably" than guys like Geno. The article was posted here and basically said that he would run the offense and even if he didn't succeed he would do what the coaches wanted to best of his ability. Presumably something like Geno's brain fart in not throwing the ball away at the end of the Raiders game would infuriate coaches and hurt QBR. Geno's QBR for that game was close to FItz's season average, but his yards were pretty high and his 2:1 TD:INT was identical to Fitzpatricks. Presumably, those boneheaded plays knocked him down. Fitzpatrick isn't going to make all the throws or carry the team on his back, but he is less likely to do stupid or silly things. He still makes some poor throws and takes some risks, but QBR is supposed to consider when those risks are taken. Short Answer: Brandon Marshall. Pray and heave it to #15 has been successful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFJF Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 QBR is kind of silly, but the stat itself seems to match the article about Fitzpatrick earlier in the season which stated that guys like him will "fail more preferably" than guys like Geno. The article was posted here and basically said that he would run the offense and even if he didn't succeed he would do what the coaches wanted to best of his ability. Presumably something like Geno's brain fart in not throwing the ball away at the end of the Raiders game would infuriate coaches and hurt QBR. Geno's QBR for that game was close to FItz's season average, but his yards were pretty high and his 2:1 TD:INT was identical to Fitzpatricks. Presumably, those boneheaded plays knocked him down. Fitzpatrick isn't going to make all the throws or carry the team on his back, but he is less likely to do stupid or silly things. He still makes some poor throws and takes some risks, but QBR is supposed to consider when those risks are taken. Short Answer: Brandon Marshall. Pray and heave it to #15 has been successful. IIRC the article was the exact opposite. I recall an article that was a multi-paged excuse that seemed to have been written by Jay-Z himself. It talked about how Fitz's INT's were far worse than Geno's. I could be wrong though, I bailed on it after a paragraph or two and just skimmed it the rest of the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerfish Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Other than the Bozo's at ESPN who came up with QBR, does anyone else pay any attention to this useless stat? Brady is good at it and so was Cassel! Include that in your next 100 posts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#27TheDominator Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 IIRC the article was the exact opposite. I recall an article that was a multi-paged excuse that seemed to have been written by Jay-Z himself. It talked about how Fitz's INT's were far worse than Geno's. I could be wrong though, I bailed on it after a paragraph or two and just skimmed it the rest of the way. I found the thread: http://forums.jetnation.com/topic/122756-fitzpatrick-isnt-better-than-geno-he-just-fails-more-preferably-football-outsiders/?page=1 Looks like you have a point. The article basically said Fitzpatrick was almost as bad (and not an intelligent QB) but that he got jobs because of how he fails. This is the part that I referred to: Fitzpatrick continues to get opportunities in the NFL, even if just as a backup, because of how he fails. How you fail as a quarterback in the NFL is very important to coaches. If you stick to the design of the play and play from the pocket but simply can't execute the way you need to, you are much more likely to hang around a team over a player who stands out more as an individual but relies more on his creativity than the coach's creativity. Furthermore, if you have consistent subtle failures instead of less regular major failures, you will be viewed more favorably from a distance. That is where Fitzpatrick falls. The article didn't seem to accept that following the scheme was probably a good thing. For instance inside two minutes with no timeouts, rolling out and taking a sack before you can get out of bounds and not simply throwing the ball away is not the kind of "individual creativity" that helps a team. In my day we called it "running an offense" but I guess those days are gone and now we are just stifling creativity and individualism. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateJetsGuru Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Other than the Bozo's at ESPN who came up with QBR, does anyone else pay any attention to this useless stat? Of course you don't like a ranking which places Fitz in a positive light. Yet, if he ranked 31st or 32nd in QBR, you would probably be the first to bring that up and use it against him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUM-KNEE Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Because he's playing in a conservative system designed to minimize his limitations, and he's got two big TD magnets for WRs Kinda football 101 aint it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cant wait Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Kinda football 101 aint it? yeah the jets aren't going to run a dangerous offense with fitz but we have enough weapons that it will be efficient if nothing else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUM-KNEE Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 yeah the jets aren't going to run a dangerous offense with fitz but we have enough weapons that it will be efficient if nothing else I think the offense will be more than efficient now that we have all hands back on deck. Nothing superhuman, but better than simply efficient. I REALLY hope Powell gets more screens, hes more shifty than most realize. I think that aspect has been missing from the mix since LT was here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cant wait Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 I think the offense will be more than efficient now that we have all hands back on deck. Nothing superhuman, but better than simply efficient. I REALLY hope Powell gets more screens, hes more shifty than most realize. I think that aspect has been missing from the mix since LT was here. it's hard to really consider the jets offense more than that since they aren't a threat to score from any position on the field and put up points in a hurry... it's about controlling the ball and methodically chip away at the defense, I agree more screens will help move the ball but I think the most promising trend over the last couple weeks is the lack of INT's, fitz hasn't thrown one since the debacle in houston so let's hope we can continue to see that kind of play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BUM-KNEE Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Lack of INTs is very good to see, been too many in the last decade..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sourceworx Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 I could give a rat's @ss about QBR. But I stand by the point that Fitz has been a very solid game manager, has avoided major mistakes, and has improved as the season has progressed. That's all that matters. And he passes the cringe test. Meaning I don't cringe when I see him under center like I did when Geno was there. Yep. Going back to Pennington (minus Favre), each time a Jets QB threw a pass, my a$$hole would pucker up, expecting a defender off screen to suddenly pop up and jump the route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoJoTownsell1 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 Because he's playing in a conservative system designed to minimize his limitations, and he's got two big TD magnets for WRs which qb plays in a system that maximizes their weaknesses? And yeah, he's got 2 big td magnets but that's what most offenses need. Aaron rodgers is struggling without Jordy and brady hasn't been the same without gronk and Edelman the last couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kelly Posted December 12, 2015 Author Share Posted December 12, 2015 Kinda football 101 aint it? ..pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cant wait Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 which qb plays in a system that maximizes their weaknesses? And yeah, he's got 2 big td magnets but that's what most offenses need. Aaron rodgers is struggling without Jordy and brady hasn't been the same without gronk and Edelman the last couple of weeks. not every OC adjusts their game plan based on their QB, see shotty/sanchez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWhofans Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 not every OC adjusts their game plan based on their QB, see shotty/sanchez It hasn't really needed adjusting though. It comes through familiarity. Fitzpatrick had his best years under Gailey in Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cant wait Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 It hasn't really needed adjusting though. It comes through familiarity. Fitzpatrick had his best years under Gailey in Buffalo that's pretty much what I'm saying, gailey is getting the most out of fitz. Maybe adjusting isn't the right word since they have a history but he's done a great job as OC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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