Could Gang Green Wind up With Draft’s Best Player…Again?

[AFJF]

Mike Mayock says Smith could have been draft's top pick if healthy.

 

NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock said during his annual pre-Scouting Combine marathon conference call Tuesday that former Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith might have been the No. 1 overall pick in this years draft had Smith not suffered a torn ACL and MCL during his team’s Jan. 1 Fiesta Bowl loss to Ohio State.

Smith had surgery last month. His healthy and the chance he could miss all of his rookie season will obviously affect his draft status.

“If he did not get hurt, he’d be in the conversation for the first pick,” Mayock said. “That’s how good a season this kid had.”

In a separate but equally headache-inducing conference call, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. said he saw Smith as a top three pick before the injury.

Smith was an All-American and had 225 tackles over his last two college seasons before entering this year’s draft.

Mayock said Smith is “a little bit like Myles Jack in the sense that I saw him take a big leap forward as a full
three-down linebacker this year. He’s sideline to sideline with speed. He’s as exciting a linebacker prospect as I’ve seen since Luke Kuechly as far as an inside, off-the-ball linebacker. That’s how excited I was for him.”

Jack, also an expected first-round pick, dropped out of UCLA and began preparing for the NFL last fall after suffering a season-ending knee injury. Both Jack and Smith will be at the Combine to meet with scouts and coaches as interested teams gather information and prepare to potentially make a complicated draft-day decision given their injury situations.

[jetrider]

On January 15, 2016 at 4:47 AM, Lupz27 said:

Cook will be lucky to be the 4th QB off the board, and I wouldn't be shocked to see neither Goff, or Lynch not be the first off the board.

This part needs a few more negatives to make it clearer.

[RutgersJetFan]

You know it's funny, considering we get the biggest steal of the draft or the best player every single year, you'd think we'd be a winning franchise. Weird.

[Mainejet]

DOUBTFUL. It's hard to imagine the arguably best player in the draft landing in the Jets lap two years in a row. But Mac can still be tremendously successful if he just sticks to taking the best available players on the board. If Mac feels that the BAP won't generate enough return for the team then trade down or up depending on who's willing to give up what. But there's NO doubt we are going to find out a lot about Mac's drafting prowess this time around.

[Jetster]

Look no further than Thomas Davis to see how a LB like Jaylon Smith can come back from ACL/MCL surgery in this day & age. If he drops to us it's a no brainer considering that Fitz will most likely be our starting QB in 2016. 

There are no GREAT teams anymore in the NFL. Who's to say the Jets couldn't have beat the Broncos has they made the playoffs? Big difference chasing Manning than chasing Tyrod Taylor. Mac is walking the tightrope of keeping competitive (strive for the playoffs) and building for the Bradyless AFC East of the future when he either retires, gets hurt or finally slips even more (he already has started falling down when he feels pressure like Manning has done for 3 years now.

Some of these posts about "rebuilding" are ridiculous. I'll be doing cartwheels if Smith drops to 20 & the Jets pounce. When I see a LB compared to Patrick Willis I'm praying he falls to 20. 

 

[SenorGato]

 

On January 15, 2016 at 10:26 AM, Beerfish said:

So if people don;t want to draft a guy who is injured do they also automatically want to get rid of Wilkerson who just broke a leg?

I'm no doctor, nor do I play one on a message board, but I think blowing out the ACL and going under the knife for it is a more serious injury than breaking a leg. Then there's positional value - a non-pass rusher at LB isn't nearly as valuable as an elite interior rusher.

I wouldn't be surprised if Smith fell to the top of the second or in the lowest portion of the first because of that injury. He wasn't really a freakish athlete before that, a little light to play 3-4 OLB, and wasn't as big a playmaker in college as gets painted. This isn't a Leonard Williams situation.

As far as the Willis comp from that tweet....Willis as a prospect was healthier, a little heavier, made more splash plays, and - especially post-knee surgery for Smith - a better athlete. 

I thought this thread was about Tunsil.

[AFJF]

On ‎1‎/‎15‎/‎2016 at 10:26 AM, Beerfish said:

So if people don;t want to draft a guy who is injured do they also automatically want to get rid of Wilkerson who just broke a leg?

Wanting to get rid of Wilk because of his injury would be silly.  Personally, I haven't seen anyone say he should be let go because of the broken leg.  Letting him go to add cap space and draft picks is a completely different story.

[Jetsfan80]

10 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

You know it's funny, considering we get the biggest steal of the draft or the best player every single year, you'd think we'd be a winning franchise. Weird.

Vernon Gholston, Mark Sanchez, Kyle Wilson, Quinton Coples, Dee Milliner, and Calvin Pryor were not 1st round "steals" or in the running for "best player of the draft".

Macc is 1/1 on his first round picks in his tenure.  That much we can say with some confidence.

[JiFtheOracle]

I dont know if Leonard Floyd is the best player in the draft.  If he was, he wouldnt fall to the Jets.

But I'd love love love to land him.

[AFJF]

17 minutes ago, JiF said:

I dont know if Leonard Floyd is the best player in the draft.  If he was, he wouldnt fall to the Jets.

But I'd love love love to land him.

Just gonna' boil down to how his medical reports look and how concerned each team is about it.

[drsamuel84]

This is an older win now team.  While it looks like Jaylon Smith is going to be a great player, with this roster it becomes really tough to justify using your first rd pick on a player that may not even play next year.  There needs to be a balance of building towards the future and winning now and I think this team has too many holes to justify that move.

[CrazyCarl40]

5 minutes ago, drsamuel84 said:

This is an older win now team.  While it looks like Jaylon Smith is going to be a great player, with this roster it becomes really tough to justify using your first rd pick on a player that may not even play next year.  There needs to be a balance of building towards the future and winning now and I think this team has too many holes to justify that move.

LOL. Those two sentences seem like a contradiction, no? If this was an "older, win now team" it wouldn't have too many holes to justify taking possibly the best player in the draft.

I don't think Smith makes it to 20, even with the injury, so it's a moot point.

[PatsFanTX]

It's hard to imagine the arguably best player in the draft landing in the Jets lap two years in a row.

Do you seriously think Williams is better than Winston, Mariota and Cooper?

You need to stop eating out of your deer feeders.

[peebag]

9 minutes ago, PatsFanTX said:

Do you seriously think Williams is better than Winston, Mariota and Cooper?

You need to stop eating out of your deer feeders.

well Troll - how do you know Leo won't be the best?  WAAAAAAYYYY to soon to judge.  But you just want to stir up sh*t.

[Mainejet]

1 hour ago, PatsFanTX said:

Do you seriously think Williams is better than Winston, Mariota and Cooper?

You need to stop eating out of your deer feeders.

Cooper drops the ball way too much. Winston and Mariota MAY turn out to be better, but right now they SUCK. Yes, I seriously think that he is better than all of them. Williams was listed as the best player in the entire draft and I believe we turned out to get arguably that.

[bitonti]

On 1/15/2016 at 10:36 AM, JoJoTownsell1 said:

 Smith tore an ACL and will likely miss all of preseason and a few games. Rookies need camp to have any chance at producing in year 1. HUGE DIFFERENCE!

it's actually worse than that. He tore ACL and LCL and is likely going to miss the entire rookie season Cedric Ogbuehi suffered the same injury and didn't get active until November. And unlike Ogbuehi who is a lineman, Smith is a speed based edge rusher. There's a real question if he will make it back at all. A player with that many questions shouldn't go round 1. 

[JiFtheOracle]

3 hours ago, AFJF said:

Just gonna' boil down to how his medical reports look and how concerned each team is about it.

Did he get hurt?  That's news to me.  Are you confusing him with Jaylon Smith?

I thought the major concern with Floyd is size and strength.  Does he have the strength to play OLB?  I've been seeing a lot of Mingo comparisons. 

[JiFtheOracle]

On 1/15/2016 at 8:54 AM, CrazyCarl40 said:

If Jaylon Smith falls to 20, you take him and run. He's a top five talent, every down linebacker that the Jets desperately need.

Meh, love the kid but this is the homer in you talking.  He might never be the same.  And he's easily going to miss at least the first half of the season.

A healthy Smith, goes top 5 for sure.  Now?  He's lucky to go in the first.  Not too many teams are willing to take a player in the first round and just give his rookie season away to recovery. 

[JiFtheOracle]

14 minutes ago, bitonti said:

it's actually worse than that. He tore ACL and LCL and is likely going to miss the entire rookie season Cedric Ogbuehi suffered the same injury and didn't get active until November. And unlike Ogbuehi who is a lineman, Smith is a speed based edge rusher. There's a real question if he will make it back at all. A player with that many questions shouldn't go round 1. 

Yeah, this.

He's a tough player to pass on for a team like the Jets desperate for a pass rusher but I dont see him going 1st round with his projected recovery time.  Teams are going to have to do some serious research to make sure he's going to make a full recovery. 

[CrazyCarl40]

15 minutes ago, JiF said:

Meh, love the kid but this is the homer in you talking.  He might never be the same.  And he's easily going to miss at least the first half of the season.

A healthy Smith, goes top 5 for sure.  Now?  He's lucky to go in the first.  Not too many teams are willing to take a player in the first round and just give his rookie season away to recovery. 

And yet every mock draft has him going in the top 15. But yeah, it's the homer in me.

29 minutes ago, bitonti said:

it's actually worse than that. He tore ACL and LCL and is likely going to miss the entire rookie season Cedric Ogbuehi suffered the same injury and didn't get active until November. And unlike Ogbuehi who is a lineman, Smith is a speed based edge rusher. There's a real question if he will make it back at all. A player with that many questions shouldn't go round 1. 

That's not entirely true. Can he rush the edge with speed? Sure. But he's well above average in coverage as well. He's not just a Mauldin. He's got more than one trick.

If Dee Milliner can get drafted in the top 10, if DeWayne Robertson and his 0 knees can get drafted in the top five, this guy is a sure fire first rounder. The reward is huge if you hit on this guy. Also, you have no idea what his recovery time is. Every body is different.

 

[JiFtheOracle]

25 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

And yet every mock draft has him going in the top 15. But yeah, it's the homer in me.

 

Oh well, if mock drafts say so then it must be true. 

[bitonti]

33 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

If Dee Milliner can get drafted in the top 10, if DeWayne Robertson and his 0 knees can get drafted in the top five, this guy is a sure fire first rounder. The reward is huge if you hit on this guy. Also, you have no idea what his recovery time is. Every body is different.

 

Those players (and Vilma too) had conditions discovered by combine doctors, but they played entire seasons with it. This is very different the player needs his entire knee reconstructed and it was a severe injury during the Bowl game. His knee exploded on national tv. 

If it happened in September that would be different they could see how his recovery progresses etc. As it stands now he starts the year on PUP and they hope his entire season isn't a wash. 

although there are many exceptions I hope the Jets use round 1 for players who can help the team this year. Round 2 and beyond are for the projects. 

 

[faba]

Jets need someone that can contribute this year- Smith is too risky to take given the injury

[CrazyCarl40]

22 minutes ago, JiF said:

Oh well, if mock drafts say so then it must be true. 

Just saying that I'm not the only one and it's not my homerism. I'd be all for taking Myles Jack if he fell as well because of injury.

15 minutes ago, bitonti said:

Those players (and Vilma too) had conditions discovered by combine doctors, but they played entire seasons with it. This is very different the player needs his entire knee reconstructed and it was a severe injury during the Bowl game. His knee exploded on national tv. 

If it happened in September that would be different they could see how his recovery progresses etc. As it stands now he starts the year on PUP and they hope his entire season isn't a wash. 

although there are many exceptions I hope the Jets use round 1 for players who can help the team this year. Round 2 and beyond are for the projects. 

 

One of the most talented players in the draft is not a project. I know the injuries and timing are different, but Todd Gurley was selected in the first round as well. The Jets can afford to wait.

Just now, faba said:

Jets need someone that can contribute this year- Smith is too risky to take given the injury

Wouldn't be the case if more recent drafts had faired better. If he's there at 20, he's the BPA. Injury or not.

[bitonti]

again Todd Gurley's injury was way more straight forward. Smith is a 9-12 month recovery from January

http://www.ndinsider.com/football/outlining-notre-dame-lb-jaylon-smith-s-road-to-recovery/article_e56a01b4-b58a-11e5-953f-6fecd7216768.html

 

[JiFtheOracle]

45 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

Just saying that I'm not the only one and it's not my homerism. I'd be all for taking Myles Jack if he fell as well because of injury.

One of the most talented players in the draft is not a project. I know the injuries and timing are different, but Todd Gurley was selected in the first round as well. The Jets can afford to wait.

Wouldn't be the case if more recent drafts had faired better. If he's there at 20, he's the BPA. Injury or not.

I was just busting on ya.  Like I said, I like Smith a lot.  It would be hard to pass on him.  Teams are going to have to do some serious research and ultimately, I think he falls out the first when they find out he could miss half the season.