Daredevil Mafia

[Jetsfan80]

I find you distinctly tolerable.

In fact, I see the start a beautiful rivalry between the two of us. One that I hope can rival the Ape V CTM rivalry one day.

Who do you wanna be? Creepo or Stinky?

Pac spends his days cutting peoples' grass without showering, then logs on here to tell the girls that are new to JN Mafia that they need to PM him "action shots".  He's both.

[Spoot-Face]

Pac spends his days cutting peoples' grass without showering, then logs on here to tell the girls that are new to JN Mafia that they need to PM him "action shots".  He's both.

[Lizard King]

i see we have made a lot of progress.

 

[Spoot-Face]

i see we have made a lot of progress.

 

Was just about to say...

 

Back on track, I'm still up for a Pac or LK lynch.

[CTM]

So.. Ape explicitly said 1 of AVM or Spoof is scum and potentially both, but definitely 1. What was his angle?

With 4 scum, his angle was to get some body, anybody lynched. Given the lack of power roles for town, the fact that ape said 3 scum AND that he was setting up a multi day play, i think we have to assume for now 3 scum, otherwise mod has kinda fuxored the game.

This means that scum needed 2 phases to go perfectly ftw (mislynch +  nk), and all other phases atleast be a trade scum for town

So what are the possibilities

1. AVM and Spoot are both town
   1. This works nicely as a 2 day out for ape, for example lynch AVM, he flips town and then oh it has to be Spoot to set up tomorrows lynch for the win. The only problem is that Ape would be exposed by this point and they'd still need their NK to go through but knowing the doc that's decent odds (running math on this it'd be 4 town vs 3 scum, with doc basically having a 1/6 chance of blocking kill since the only person they wouldn't possibly protect would be ape)
2. Avm is scum, spoot town
   1. Avm got the initial attention of town post reveal, ape had to have expected that. Assuming we lynched Avm, he flipped scum Ape would've earned his bonafides and then figured out what bs to come up with on the next days sensor (AVM was helping him construct his train, I'm not sure I like that). IN this scenario they'd still be 2 phases (mislynch and nk) from end game, but Ape would be running around as town leader with no cop to question him. Then again, the question as to why sum hasn't tried to shoot him would come up quickly, but maybe he thought he could fend that off.
3. Avm is town , spoot scum
   1. Here again, AVM was obviously first lynch. This would allow Ape to eliminate 1 of the needed town mislynches, offer up spoot as a gambit the following day, then figure out the sensor business to trap a townie on the following day for the win. This also works good for cover should ape be exposed + allows him to win back the town on the following day, all but ensuring he'll drive them off a cliff the last day
4. AVM and Spoot scum
   1. This would first and foremost give these two cover should ape's reveal not be bought and him lynched. Beyond that, he'd have to push the avm lynch and then move people off spoot based on the next sensor reading, since it was atleast 1 had to be scum. This would be seeing up the long play again, with ape running around as leader and no cop to pin him down

 

[CTM]

I think I am leaning towards a spoot vote . Did he ever claim?

[CTM]

vote Spoot

[Pac]

 

 

Your boss is watching you...  better up your game..

[Pac]

vote Spoot

Why are you content to let the uncertainty of the LK situation ride?  At what point does that mystery get solved?

[CTM]

Why are you content to let the uncertainty of the LK situation ride?  At what point does that mystery get solved?

tomorrow? I am just having a hard time imaging ape going through all that work only to have lk claim dr when we know they knew crusher was doc 

my only explanation is lk went rogue 

[CTM]

Lizzie was also early on ape train and spoofs voting record is abysmal 

[CTM]

@JiF

if smashole is really out can we get a deadline extension and a sub?

[Pac]

tomorrow? I am just having a hard time imaging ape going through all that work only to have lk claim dr when we know they knew crusher was doc 

my only explanation is lk went rogue 

I'm not going to assume they knew anything.  It's a superhero game with scum and a SK who stupidly got himself lynched on day 1.  I'd think it's just as likely JiF sprinkled a vest here or there assuming there were going to be multiple shots every night.  Why put the effort into modding if the game lasts 3 RL days?

I think you're making a pretty big assumption about what scum may or may not have known..  or that they even shot Crush.

[CTM]

I'm not going to assume they knew anything.  It's a superhero game with scum and a SK who stupidly got himself lynched on day 1.  I'd think it's just as likely JiF sprinkled a vest here or there assuming there were going to be multiple shots every night.  Why put the effort into modding if the game lasts 3 RL days?

I think you're making a pretty big assumption about what scum may or may not have known..  or that they even shot Crush.

why would t anyone else claim they lost a vest?

[Jetsfan80]

So.. Ape explicitly said 1 of AVM or Spoof is scum and potentially both, but definitely 1. What was his angle?

With 4 scum, his angle was to get some body, anybody lynched. Given the lack of power roles for town, the fact that ape said 3 scum AND that he was setting up a multi day play, i think we have to assume for now 3 scum, otherwise mod has kinda fuxored the game.

This means that scum needed 2 phases to go perfectly ftw (mislynch +  nk), and all other phases atleast be a trade scum for town

So what are the possibilities

1. AVM and Spoot are both town
   1. This works nicely as a 2 day out for ape, for example lynch AVM, he flips town and then oh it has to be Spoot to set up tomorrows lynch for the win. The only problem is that Ape would be exposed by this point and they'd still need their NK to go through but knowing the doc that's decent odds (running math on this it'd be 4 town vs 3 scum, with doc basically having a 1/6 chance of blocking kill since the only person they wouldn't possibly protect would be ape)
2. Avm is scum, spoot town
   1. Avm got the initial attention of town post reveal, ape had to have expected that. Assuming we lynched Avm, he flipped scum Ape would've earned his bonafides and then figured out what bs to come up with on the next days sensor (AVM was helping him construct his train, I'm not sure I like that). IN this scenario they'd still be 2 phases (mislynch and nk) from end game, but Ape would be running around as town leader with no cop to question him. Then again, the question as to why sum hasn't tried to shoot him would come up quickly, but maybe he thought he could fend that off.
3. Avm is town , spoot scum
   1. Here again, AVM was obviously first lynch. This would allow Ape to eliminate 1 of the needed town mislynches, offer up spoot as a gambit the following day, then figure out the sensor business to trap a townie on the following day for the win. This also works good for cover should ape be exposed + allows him to win back the town on the following day, all but ensuring he'll drive them off a cliff the last day
4. AVM and Spoot scum
   1. This would first and foremost give these two cover should ape's reveal not be bought and him lynched. Beyond that, he'd have to push the avm lynch and then move people off spoot based on the next sensor reading, since it was atleast 1 had to be scum. This would be seeing up the long play again, with ape running around as leader and no cop to pin him down

 

Thorough analysis.  How would you rank the options in order of likelihood?  # 1 seems like the best bet, but # 3 sounds very possible also.  Going 1/2 on mislynches would have lent credibility for Ape's claim while only losing 1 scum member, and vaulting him into "confirmed town" status.  After that point, town would mislynch the rest of the game for the loss.

I don't see # 2 or # 4 being plausible. 

[Spoot-Face]

So.. Ape explicitly said 1 of AVM or Spoof is scum and potentially both, but definitely 1. What was his angle?

With 4 scum, his angle was to get some body, anybody lynched. Given the lack of power roles for town, the fact that ape said 3 scum AND that he was setting up a multi day play, i think we have to assume for now 3 scum, otherwise mod has kinda fuxored the game.

This means that scum needed 2 phases to go perfectly ftw (mislynch +  nk), and all other phases atleast be a trade scum for town

So what are the possibilities

1. AVM and Spoot are both town
   1. This works nicely as a 2 day out for ape, for example lynch AVM, he flips town and then oh it has to be Spoot to set up tomorrows lynch for the win. The only problem is that Ape would be exposed by this point and they'd still need their NK to go through but knowing the doc that's decent odds (running math on this it'd be 4 town vs 3 scum, with doc basically having a 1/6 chance of blocking kill since the only person they wouldn't possibly protect would be ape)
2. Avm is scum, spoot town
   1. Avm got the initial attention of town post reveal, ape had to have expected that. Assuming we lynched Avm, he flipped scum Ape would've earned his bonafides and then figured out what bs to come up with on the next days sensor (AVM was helping him construct his train, I'm not sure I like that). IN this scenario they'd still be 2 phases (mislynch and nk) from end game, but Ape would be running around as town leader with no cop to question him. Then again, the question as to why sum hasn't tried to shoot him would come up quickly, but maybe he thought he could fend that off.
3. Avm is town , spoot scum
   1. Here again, AVM was obviously first lynch. This would allow Ape to eliminate 1 of the needed town mislynches, offer up spoot as a gambit the following day, then figure out the sensor business to trap a townie on the following day for the win. This also works good for cover should ape be exposed + allows him to win back the town on the following day, all but ensuring he'll drive them off a cliff the last day
4. AVM and Spoot scum
   1. This would first and foremost give these two cover should ape's reveal not be bought and him lynched. Beyond that, he'd have to push the avm lynch and then move people off spoot based on the next sensor reading, since it was atleast 1 had to be scum. This would be seeing up the long play again, with ape running around as leader and no cop to pin him down

If it is scenarios one, wouldn't it theoretically work like this:

10 players left (assumed 7 town and 3 scum); town mislynches AVM (6 town and 3 scum); NK (5 town and 3 scum); town thinks it must be me then and mislynches me (4 town and 3 scum); NK (3 town and 3 scum). Does scum when at 50/50, or would they have to kill one more townie?

[Spoot-Face]

I think I am leaning towards a spoot vote . Did he ever claim?

Claim what?

I'm being totally honest here. I don't know what you mean.

[Spoot-Face]

 

 

Your boss is watching you...  better up your game..

Ape is quite happy with my game. You, on the other hand...

He gave me a message to relay to you:

 

Edited for derp spelling.

[Spoot-Face]

Why are you content to let the uncertainty of the LK situation ride?  At what point does that mystery get solved?

So, you are unhappy with CTM voting me, who you've been trying to rally people against?

[Jetsfan80]

Spoot is the best thing to happen to Mafia since that one time Pac skipped a game.

[Lizard King]

So.. Ape explicitly said 1 of AVM or Spoof is scum and potentially both, but definitely 1. What was his angle?

With 4 scum, his angle was to get some body, anybody lynched. Given the lack of power roles for town, the fact that ape said 3 scum AND that he was setting up a multi day play, i think we have to assume for now 3 scum, otherwise mod has kinda fuxored the game.

This means that scum needed 2 phases to go perfectly ftw (mislynch +  nk), and all other phases atleast be a trade scum for town

So what are the possibilities

1. AVM and Spoot are both town
   1. This works nicely as a 2 day out for ape, for example lynch AVM, he flips town and then oh it has to be Spoot to set up tomorrows lynch for the win. The only problem is that Ape would be exposed by this point and they'd still need their NK to go through but knowing the doc that's decent odds (running math on this it'd be 4 town vs 3 scum, with doc basically having a 1/6 chance of blocking kill since the only person they wouldn't possibly protect would be ape)
2. Avm is scum, spoot town
   1. Avm got the initial attention of town post reveal, ape had to have expected that. Assuming we lynched Avm, he flipped scum Ape would've earned his bonafides and then figured out what bs to come up with on the next days sensor (AVM was helping him construct his train, I'm not sure I like that). IN this scenario they'd still be 2 phases (mislynch and nk) from end game, but Ape would be running around as town leader with no cop to question him. Then again, the question as to why sum hasn't tried to shoot him would come up quickly, but maybe he thought he could fend that off.
3. Avm is town , spoot scum
   1. Here again, AVM was obviously first lynch. This would allow Ape to eliminate 1 of the needed town mislynches, offer up spoot as a gambit the following day, then figure out the sensor business to trap a townie on the following day for the win. This also works good for cover should ape be exposed + allows him to win back the town on the following day, all but ensuring he'll drive them off a cliff the last day
4. AVM and Spoot scum
   1. This would first and foremost give these two cover should ape's reveal not be bought and him lynched. Beyond that, he'd have to push the avm lynch and then move people off spoot based on the next sensor reading, since it was atleast 1 had to be scum. This would be seeing up the long play again, with ape running around as leader and no cop to pin him down

 

Why are you content to let the uncertainty of the LK situation ride?  At what point does that mystery get solved?

tomorrow? I am just having a hard time imaging ape going through all that work only to have lk claim dr when we know they knew crusher was doc 

my only explanation is lk went rogue 

That last line about "if he gets Ape lynched after me" doesn't make much sense after reading why you thought Spoot was clear for hammering Ape..."if he gets Ape lynched after me" - I don't think town votes Ape the following day on a mislynch, that you yourself say had a lot of reason built into it. That's why Ape built options into his reads, so more town could get voted

I'm actually surprised that nobody is reviewing his "reads"

I'm glad to see that you took some time CTM to look into those. PAC and Crusher thought they were nonsense, but since Ape was obviously going for something with whom he chose, that was much town points in mybook.

I'm not going to assume they knew anything.  It's a superhero game with scum and a SK who stupidly got himself lynched on day 1.  I'd think it's just as likely JiF sprinkled a vest here or there assuming there were going to be multiple shots every night.  Why put the effort into modding if the game lasts 3 RL days?

I think you're making a pretty big assumption about what scum may or may not have known..  or that they even shot Crush.

Pretty terrible

If it is scenarios one, wouldn't it theoretically work like this:

10 players left (assumed 7 town and 3 scum); town mislynches AVM (6 town and 3 scum); NK (5 town and 3 scum); town thinks it must be me then and mislynches me (4 town and 3 scum); NK (3 town and 3 scum). Does scum when at 50/50, or would they have to kill one more townie?

Scum would win at 50/50 because you can't outvote them in day phase.

[CTM]

Thorough analysis.  How would you rank the options in order of likelihood?  # 1 seems like the best bet, but # 3 sounds very possible also.  Going 1/2 on mislynches would have lent credibility for Ape's claim while only losing 1 scum member, and vaulting him into "confirmed town" status.  After that point, town would mislynch the rest of the game for the loss.

I don't see # 2 or # 4 being plausible. 

I am not sure about 1 tbh

Ape is always trying to account for contingencies, which is why him stating explicitly that 1 out Spoot and AVM is scum would likely be true. What if someone else did have a BPV and they missed a NK?

In scenario 1, ape would be totally screwed if both Spoot and Avm were town as he'd not have the end game #'s due to blocked NK.

Imagine 

10 players 7 town vs 3 scum.. AVM town lynched, NK fails

9 players 6 town vs 3 scum.. Now spoot has to be lynched: Spoot town, NK succeeds

7 players, 4 town vs 3 scum.. With ape being the next logical lynch, NK suceeds

5 players 3 town vs 2 scum.. yeah it's lylo, but ape is dead and town has a chance. 

I don't know that ape the egomaniac comes up with a plan in which he won't be around at end game, unless he ****ed up

[Spoot-Face]

I'm glad to see that you took some time CTM to look into those. PAC and Crusher thought they were nonsense, but since Ape was obviously going for something with whom he chose, that was much town points in mybook.

Pretty terrible

Scum would win at 50/50 because you can't outvote them in day phase.

Okay, that's what I thought. Then that means that scenario one is a sure win for scum, as long as they hit on their NKs. Ape did say numerous times that AVM or me would be the smartest lynch. He easily could have set up two mislynches in a row.

[CTM]

If it is scenarios one, wouldn't it theoretically work like this:

10 players left (assumed 7 town and 3 scum); town mislynches AVM (6 town and 3 scum); NK (5 town and 3 scum); town thinks it must be me then and mislynches me (4 town and 3 scum); NK (3 town and 3 scum). Does scum when at 50/50, or would they have to kill one more townie?

scum would win.. but it's reliant on Crusher not blocking a NK AND/or a bullet proof vest not being out there. He's basically painted into a corner on this one if any NK goes wrong, he's screwed.. see post above

[CTM]

Claim what?

I'm being totally honest here. I don't know what you mean.

your role

[Jetsfan80]

I am not sure about 1 tbh

Ape is always trying to account for contingencies, which is why him stating explicitly that 1 out Spoot and AVM is scum would likely be true. What if someone else did have a BPV and they missed a NK?

In scenario 1, ape would be totally screwed if both Spoot and Avm were town as he'd not have the end game #'s due to blocked NK.

Imagine 

10 players 7 town vs 3 scum.. AVM town lynched, NK fails

9 players 6 town vs 3 scum.. Now spoot has to be lynched: Spoot town, NK succeeds

7 players, 4 town vs 3 scum.. With ape being the next logical lynch, NK suceeds

5 players 3 town vs 2 scum.. yeah it's lylo, but ape is dead and town has a chance. 

I don't know that ape the egomaniac comes up with a plan in which he won't be around at end game, unless he ****ed up

True, true.  Gameplay just didn't favor AVM being scum.  Spoot I'm torn on.  I suppose option 3 could be the more likely option. 

[The Crusher]

@JiF

if smashole is really out can we get a deadline extension and a sub?

Oh please.  Smash is a grouchy prick but he will be back. 

[Spoot-Face]

I am not sure about 1 tbh

Ape is always trying to account for contingencies, which is why him stating explicitly that 1 out Spoot and AVM is scum would likely be true. What if someone else did have a BPV and they missed a NK?

In scenario 1, ape would be totally screwed if both Spoot and Avm were town as he'd not have the end game #'s due to blocked NK.

Imagine 

10 players 7 town vs 3 scum.. AVM town lynched, NK fails

9 players 6 town vs 3 scum.. Now spoot has to be lynched: Spoot town, NK succeeds

7 players, 4 town vs 3 scum.. With ape being the next logical lynch, NK suceeds

5 players 3 town vs 2 scum.. yeah it's lylo, but ape is dead and town has a chance. 

I don't know that ape the egomaniac comes up with a plan in which he won't be around at end game, unless he ****ed up

Yeah, that's the big wrinkle in that scenario. We already had one failed NK, and it seems like we're unsure of exactly why. Hit doc, or hit vest.

[The Crusher]

I'm not going to assume they knew anything.  It's a superhero game with scum and a SK who stupidly got himself lynched on day 1.  I'd think it's just as likely JiF sprinkled a vest here or there assuming there were going to be multiple shots every night.  Why put the effort into modding if the game lasts 3 RL days?

I think you're making a pretty big assumption about what scum may or may not have known..  or that they even shot Crush.

You are looking at horseshoe prints and screaming "Zebra!!"  Just a horse Pac. Just a horse.  It's a JiF game.  Hard to believe they waited till Day 2 to shoot. me.  You are being more obtuse than usual.

[Spoot-Face]

your role

VT

So scum can successfully NK me. I doubt a doc would be protecting me anyway. To be honest, they'd be stupid to.

[CTM]

 

True, true.  Gameplay just didn't favor AVM being scum.  Spoot I'm torn on.  I suppose option 3 could be the more likely option. 

Well it does, it allows him to eliminate 1 of the 2 mislynches he needed quickly. And as I said, AVM was happy to play along, offered to self vote and helped construct his train to optimize sensor readings

Does he do that as scum though? I dunno lol.. It doesn't make sense to me in either town or scum, so I'm at a loss. I guess town AVM who was buying ape claim might of thought he was helping town?? Scum AVM might of thought appearing helpful would get spoot lynched first? Best i got so far

[CTM]

 

True, true.  Gameplay just didn't favor AVM being scum.  Spoot I'm torn on.  I suppose option 3 could be the more likely option. 

also, if option 4 is it, then we can safely lynch Spoot too.. W really only need to concern ourselves with option 1 and 2

And again, spoots vote record is the worst by far

[CTM]

VT

So scum can successfully NK me. I doubt a doc would be protecting me anyway. To be honest, they'd be stupid to.

what does vt stand for? quick

[CTM]

lol

[The Crusher]

VT

So scum can successfully NK me. I doubt a doc would be protecting me anyway. To be honest, they'd be stupid to.

If not who? Im either lynching you today our protecting you tonight.  Im torn.  Is to live without spoot, Really living?  Is it?  Is it?  I for one I think not.