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Player Market Value and GM Job Preservation


varjet

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I don't think the value of a player is not a stock, where there is a quoted market value.  A player is worth what a team will pay.

For Fitz, he was a completely free agent, and no one NOW is paying him more than the Jets' offer. What the Eagles paid for Bradford is not really his market value-that is not a franchise that is thinking lately.  The Broncos' choices are Kaep and Fitz.  The 49ers are holding out for maximum value for Kaep.  They will push this to the brink, and then it will be a split second decision on what to do.  If the Broncos cannot get Kaep at a price that makes sense to them, they will make Fitz an offer, likely at or around the Jets' offer.  I can see Fitz taking that, so he can tell his kids that he made it to the playoffs, and for the fun of playing for an excellent team.

Elway has a job probably for life at this point-he does not want too much of a letdown.  I think, notwithstanding Fitz never making the playoffs, he could take the 2016 Broncos to the playoffs-I may be able to.  If MacC overpays for Fitz, and the Jets fail to make the playoffs again, his efforts to rebuild the team after years of bad drafting are further slowed.   He has no choice but to save resources.  The right answer is to give Fitz a contract with incentives for wins and playoffs.  If he regresses, he gets paid like Chase Daniels, which is what many suspect he is most similar to.

A few teams this offseason were willing to pay up for DEs, even 3-4 DEs   My guess is that if Wilk was an unrestrictred free agent, Jax could have preferred him to Malik Jackson for possibly more money.  The Giants paid up for Vernon, and the Patriots traded Jones.  If the Jets cut Wilk now (tender has not been signed), I don't know who is paying up for him.   I think the Jets have concluded that long-term WIlk is not a 17mm/year player-he is not getting to the QB in crunchtime to save a victory/come back from behind.  He really is only on the team now as Richardson insurance.  It would not surprise me to see him not signed long-term, to see him walk next year and get a contract likely well in excess of Jacksons, and for the Jets to pick another DE high in the draft.  Considering that we are paying for good WRs and drafting DEs, I can't say that is a bad way to go given what DL get in FA second contracts.  SIgning Wilk does not save MacC's job, as the Jets are covered at the position, particularly given that they have signed 2 more.

This is Geno Smith's last contract year.  If the Jets plan on him competing (which I think ends up in him playing at least 4 games if Fitz does not come back), I would extend his contract for a year for something fair.  Do we want to give Geno Smith a chance to pay, and then have him ask for 10mm+ next year when he is a FA?   Or maybe if the Jets are building long-term, the right QB combination for 2016-2017 is RG III, Petty and a high draft pick?  Either RG III or Fitz.  Given Geno's contract expires in a year, does he have a place on the team?

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If you were Geno Smith, and you see the type of money being given to the likes of some of these starters and non starters, would you sign an extension  ?   You have to bet on yourself if you have any semblance of confidence in your abilities as  an NFL player .

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Well if you're saying that Geno has a financial incentive to improve and play well then good. But first he has to get the chance to play and if the Jets don't re-sign Fitz they could go in a different direction. Of course the cheapest way to go is with Geno. And the team is short of cap space. So it makes a lot of sense except on the field.

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someone once told me that "it's a sad frog who doesn't pump his own pond" .  Geno Smith thinks he can play in the NFL as a starter . Now all he needs to do is stand on that belief even when everything around him tells him it will never happen .  When everyone around him tells him it will never happen .  That my friend means betting on yourself  .

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I just read on NFL.com that Willie Colon still thinks that Geno can play esp with the kind of tslent the Jets have on offense. He said that Geno was "humbled" last season and thinks he is a good Qb. Actually after Geno returned after the IK incident last year the coaching staff was high on him. But again this season they so far won't even commit to him as their backup so you don't know what to believe. 

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25 minutes ago, Rangers9 said:

I just read on NFL.com that Willie Colon still thinks that Geno can play esp with the kind of tslent the Jets have on offense. He said that Geno was "humbled" last season and thinks he is a good Qb. Actually after Geno returned after the IK incident last year the coaching staff was high on him. But again this season they so far won't even commit to him as their backup so you don't know what to believe. 

Geno has all the physical ability to play QB it's the mental part that so far is lacking.. If Fitz splits maybe he gets another shot with the best team he's been on.. Especially since besides Marshall and a healthy Decker Forte is a fine pass catching RB..

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8 minutes ago, Savage69 said:

Geno has all the physical ability to play QB it's the mental part that so far is lacking.. If Fitz splits maybe he get another shot with the best team he's been on.. Especially since besides Marshall and a healthy Decker Forte is a fine pass catching RB..

Exactly what I want to see. 

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I guess the point is that if the Jets go with Geno. Petty and a draft pick, and Geno steps into the system and plays well like Fitz did, next year at this time we will be making and reading the same posts, because I can definitely see MacC not wanting to pay Geno a large contract.

Maybe that is the plan.....and for 2017 the QB is Petty, and we do the same thing all over again.  System QBs on the cheap.

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13 minutes ago, Larz said:

the jets don't have a lot of leverage or moves left.  mac is a bystander waiting for other moves to be made

in the end, macs best moves may be the ones he doesn't make

If I were MacC I would be spending alot of time and attention on Devin Smith.  He could make the 2015 draft, particularly if he can step up in 2017.

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1 hour ago, Savage69 said:

Geno has all the physical ability to play QB it's the mental part that so far is lacking.. If Fitz splits maybe he gets another shot with the best team he's been on.. Especially since besides Marshall and a healthy Decker Forte is a fine pass catching RB..

Considering the money situation that just might happen. I'm not against giving Geno if he looks good in practice and training camp another shot. But it's kind of inexcusable to not re-sign your starting Qb after a successful season. I know we have some Jets fans who have a chip on their shoulder against Fitz because of that Buffalo game. And basically called him a loser for not having an elite game in a situation when it really counted. But even with 3 4th quarter picks he did put us in a position to win that game. One great play by a receiver and it might have happened. I mean let's face it if not for extraordinary plays by receivers a lot of games won by big time Qbs would have been Ls. 

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1 hour ago, Rangers9 said:

I just read on NFL.com that Willie Colon still thinks that Geno can play esp with the kind of tslent the Jets have on offense. He said that Geno was "humbled" last season and thinks he is a good Qb. Actually after Geno returned after the IK incident last year the coaching staff was high on him. But again this season they so far won't even commit to him as their backup so you don't know what to believe. 

Bowles is the Fitz guy. Scheffter has said he was shocked at how much support Geno has and how confident they are in him, which I believe to be Gailey and Mac. The situation is really an interesting test of the synergy between the members of the Jets management.

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Look the bottom line is what happened on the field not in practice etc. And it was clear that Fitz was the better Qb for the Jets. I mean Fitz is supposed to be a Gailey guy and Mac has stated he wants him back and he's a great fit with the team. If it's a difference in price in the area of 5 mil you would think the Jets would meet that price. And maybe give him incentives to increase his year 2 salary if the team is successful. There's a lot of ways to do this. 

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26 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Bowles is the Fitz guy. Scheffter has said he was shocked at how much support Geno has and how confident they are in him, which I believe to be Gailey and Mac. The situation is really an interesting test of the synergy between the members of the Jets management.

Bowles is the re-incarnation of Herman Edwards, good defensive coach but totally lost offensively, I'm starting

to think Bowles is stupid.

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44 minutes ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

Look, if the money was in abundance, then Fitz would already be signed by now. But, it isn't. I hope Mac pulls a Belicheck and trades D' brick for a potential starter say at linebacker, plus a pick.

If he does, there's the money right there to pay Fitz a more agreeable amount. 

 

Nobody is taking Brick at his age for a potential starter. Jones is what? 26,27? Brick is closing in on his final years which he isn't doing all that well in.

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Fitz has value as a starter for a short time thanks to the rebuilding of the Jets offense - he gets some of the credit but, Mac gets credit for adding talent, Gailey gets credit for utilizing that talent, Marshall gets credit along with Decker, Ivory, Mangold, Carpenter, etc...  this was a team effort and right now, Fitz is not part of the team.  He was signed as an experienced backup who could mentor the QB of the future, that is still is long term value. I am happy that Mac is staying the course, this is not the year to put it all on the line...

Geno probably should should see some action in the last year of his contract and RG3 has experience, just not sure either one could be that mentor for Petty and/or draft pick, find that mentor and we can move on from Fitz 

 

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6 hours ago, varjet said:

I don't think the value of a player is not a stock, where there is a quoted market value.  A player is worth what a team will pay.

 

Piss poor analogy.  There are only 32 buyers in the NFL.  There are millions of buyers in the stock market.

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4 hours ago, LIJetsFan said:

Piss poor analogy.  There are only 32 buyers in the NFL.  There are millions of buyers in the stock market.

I take offense to your "piss poor analogy" comment.  That was the very point of the post.  Stocks have millions of buyers-players do not.  Issue with Fitz and Mo is that they are focusing on highest bids.  

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I guess I don't see how a player contract compares to a stock.  You can buy and hold a stock forever or you can sell it within the next 10 minutes, as you see fit.  A contract has finite terms, conditions, consequences for breaches, etc.  There are 10s of thousands of shares of stock.  There is only one player per contract.  Stocks are passive entities, players are living, breathing, and self interested.

Maybe I'm being obtuse, I donno.     

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20 hours ago, Matt39 said:

I dont think the Jets think Geno can play.

the Jets don't think Geno can't play they know he can't play as does anyone with half a brain. I laugh when I read Geno needs to get a chance WTF were people watching when he played ?

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