Justin Herbert is the Next NFL Draft BUST

[DepressedJetsFan23]

12 minutes ago, jgb said:

Very excellent post. True Franchise QBs can perhaps be delayed but they cannot be denied.

It’s not about guarantees. It’s about doing everything you can to add every last extra percentage point you can to the likelihood that you make the right call.

Agreed, but the title of that video is pretty definitive 

[jgb]

4 minutes ago, DepressedJetsFan23 said:

Agreed, but the title of that video is pretty definitive 

Eh pundits are playing for eyeballs I wouldn’t read too much into it or assign this guy’s views to NFL GMs

[Paradis]

19 hours ago, jetsons said:

This didn't age well ?... When you ignore your detractors & Win The Offensive ROY Award... 

 

Why did you feel compelled to share this? You could find similar content on any prospect. 

[Paradis]

15 hours ago, Flightattendant said:

Just goes to show the "experts" have no idea what's going on. Let alone the armchair GMs like us.

 

2 hours ago, DepressedJetsFan23 said:

Couldn’t agree with you more at the end of the day NOBODY knows how these guys will pan out. There are some guys who clearly are better scouts and talent evaluators than others but there is nobody who can guarantee a player 

So what are you two suggesting? We get rid of GMs and use donkey to pin a tail on?

[Paradis]

15 hours ago, Flightattendant said:

Just goes to show the "experts" have no idea what's going on. Let alone the armchair GMs like us.

 

2 hours ago, DepressedJetsFan23 said:

Couldn’t agree with you more at the end of the day NOBODY knows how these guys will pan out. There are some guys who clearly are better scouts and talent evaluators than others but there is nobody who can guarantee a player 

Thinking about this more - you two couldn’t be more wrong. If anything his selection at #7 (and success) is a testament to how GMs have a clue…

I can tell neither of you watched Herbert in college. His last couple seasons, especially his last were underwhelming. He didn’t play great ball, was inconsistent and  lost big games. THAT’S why amateurs pegged him to bust. …the ppl who know what they’re doing saw something else and knew what he could do. 

#Truth

[Maynard13]

Herbert Rookie of the Year

Darnold Bust of the Year

[jgb]

5 hours ago, Maynard13 said:

Herbert Rookie of the Year

Darnold Bust of the Year

But different situations!! You can't compare two players until you put them both in a controlled laboratory environment!! It just wouldn't be fair!!

[TheMo]

On 5/20/2021 at 11:00 AM, TeddEY said:

This is what people refuse to accept.

It's as if the two possibilities are elite or terrible, and nothing in between.

Agreed also people can’t seem to fathom a bad environment instilling bad habits etc. I think Herbert in all circumstances is probably above darnold cause he was always a better prospect with more data to project his future. But it’s very possible that three years identical to our last three might have led him to a mediocre profile. Much  better than darnold but far from elite. 

[UntouchableCrew]

I'll be man enough to admit I thought Herbert would be a total bust. I thought he was a big, strong armed guy who was totally not fluid and had no feel for the game. Never impressed me at Oregon... Seems like Oregon may have been holding him back, because he was pretty incredible last year.

Thank God the Dolphins did what I stupidly would have done and drafted Tua.

[Maynard13]

3 hours ago, jgb said:

But different situations!! You can't compare two players until you put them both in a controlled laboratory environment!! It just wouldn't be fair!!

What are they mice ? 

[DepressedJetsFan23]

21 hours ago, Paradis said:

 

So what are you two suggesting? We get rid of GMs and use donkey to pin a tail on?

Where is GM stated? I was referring to the “analysis” videos

[ZachEY]

4 hours ago, TheMo said:

Agreed also people can’t seem to fathom a bad environment instilling bad habits etc. I think Herbert in all circumstances is probably above darnold cause he was always a better prospect with more data to project his future. But it’s very possible that three years identical to our last three might have led him to a mediocre profile. Much  better than darnold but far from elite. 

I don't know... If you have the last ranked offensive line and put up all-time rookie numbers, I think he'd have been just fine as a Jet.  I think people underrate our talent level on offense because Darnold stinks.  It's certainly sub-par, but it's not a group that no one could be successful with.

[jgb]

11 minutes ago, TeddEY said:

I don't know... If you have the last ranked offensive line and put up all-time rookie numbers, I think he'd have been just fine as a Jet.  I think people underrate our talent level on offense because Darnold stinks.  It's certainly sub-par, but it's not a group that no one could be successful with.

Agree. This offense will surprise people if we can get competent play out of Wilson.

Franchise QBs make their own weaponiz, not the other way around.

[ZachEY]

6 minutes ago, jgb said:

Agree. This offense will surprise people if we can get competent play out of Wilson.

Franchise QBs make their own weaponiz, not the other way around.

No one will be surprised.  They either already know Darnold was a huge part of the problem, or they'll say, "Darnold would have done just as well, if he had AVT, Davis, Moore, and Mims and Becton in Year 2."

[jgb]

8 hours ago, TeddEY said:

No one will be surprised.  They either already know Darnold was a huge part of the problem, or they'll say, "Darnold would have done just as well, if he had AVT, Davis, Moore, and Mims and Becton in Year 2."

You are oh so right 

[Jetsfan80]

On 5/20/2021 at 10:49 AM, dcJet said:

Yes to different results from different coaches.  My experience is tennis.  New coach fixed me in five minutes; had tons of effort with old coach and nothing clicked.  Golf coaches is like that too.   

Right but you still knew how to play those games.  Your coaches were helping you with technique.  

I know you're on my side of the argument on this one based on other posts you've made in this thread, but its still worth saying to those who aren't:  In Darnold's case, he didn't know how to play the position.  Justin Herbert apparently did.  You can't learn the basics on the job at the pro level at the most complex position in pro sports.  Darnold couldn't make a pre-snap read to save his life, and he had no ability to "slow the game down".  That's what happens when you don't play QB in High School, get only 27 collegiate starts and then are expected to know all the ins and outs of the pro game.  Yes, the Jets' supporting cast and coaches didn't do Darnold many favors.  But the larger takeaway is that Darnold shouldn't have been a high pick to begin with.  He was a flawed prospect who clearly needed to be treated more like a project by scouting departments.  

Meanwhile, Herbert apparently didn't need a whole lot of help out there.  He had a bad OL and coaches who weren't much better than NY's.  He had excellent receivers but that was the only edge he had over Darnold.  Better receivers doesn't fully explain why Herbert went for 31/10 as a rookie while Darnold sh*t his pants game after game en route to being ranked QB # 36 in his 3rd year in the pros.  It's really this simple:  Herbert can play the position and Darnold cannot. 

I don't know why everyone constantly goes through mental gymnastics to try to reconcile why Darnold failed.  Lots of QB's fail, because at any given time, only a dozen or so can play the position at a high level.  It should not surprise anyone when a QB just doesn't have it, because so few do.  Simply move on and try to find a Justin Herbert of your own.  Hopefully Wilson is that guy.  

[Jetsfan80]

On 5/20/2021 at 8:13 PM, DepressedJetsFan23 said:

Couldn’t agree with you more at the end of the day NOBODY knows how these guys will pan out. There are some guys who clearly are better scouts and talent evaluators than others but there is nobody who can guarantee a player 

Nope, definitely no guarantees when it comes to QB's.  Only strong hunches. 

I only really know that I'll trust Andy Reid's take on a QB far easier than most.  He may not have known exactly what he was getting in Pat Mahomes, but he did trade up to get him, and then dumped Alex Smith after he put up a career year.  Yes, Reid can succeed with a lot of different types of QB's, but he also knew he needed/wanted someone special to get to the next level and win a SB.  That's why he went all-in on Mahomes, and it paid off.

[Jetsfan80]

On 5/20/2021 at 10:57 PM, Paradis said:

 

Thinking about this more - you two couldn’t be more wrong. If anything his selection at #7 (and success) is a testament to how GMs have a clue…

I can tell neither of you watched Herbert in college. His last couple seasons, especially his last were underwhelming. He didn’t play great ball, was inconsistent and  lost big games. THAT’S why amateurs pegged him to bust. …the ppl who know what they’re doing saw something else and knew what he could do. 

#Truth

Yep.  Fans are constantly seesawing on a prospect with each game they play.  Bad game:  He sucks and will bust.  Good game:  Take him # 1 overall!!!  We saw that with Fields last season, on this board.

Good GM's are much more measured with their approach.  They know QB's will have their ebbs and flows at the collegiate level.  These are 18-22 year old kids we're talking about who only get 2 or 3 years as starters to show what they can do at that level.  Anyone remember when you were 18-22 years old?  Yeah.  Probably a completely unrecognizable compared to when you turned 30, no?  Some franchise QB's are successful well into their mid-late 30s or even 40s now.  You can't bank on those college ebbs and flows remaining the case into a QB's late 20s and 30s.  At the pro level, guys hone their craft and become a LOT more consistent than their college days.  So GM's are looking for things that the average fan simply doesn't notice to determine if their skillset translates over the long haul.

Can a young kid become a 10+ year starters?  That's the long game GM's have to play.  One game isn't going to make much of a difference to them.  Sometimes, not even a full season does.  They're looking for specific things that are hard to spot and demonstrate whether a kid has it or not.