Ashtyn Davis

[#27TheDominator]

51 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

NFL teams don't draft top 10 picks with the planned intent to just use situationally, except at QB. Not after sinking major resources into two expensive veterans at the same position just the prior year. 

What they tend to do is draft someone lower, whom they don't expect to be all that immediately, and groom that person to take over and eventually make the other one(s) expendable. 

Or more likely, since both are locked in for serious $ next year, they'd just take that edge rusher in next year's draft and take someone they'll start full-time this year. Situationally/rotationally for the coming year they can fill that role with less than a top 10 draft pick. 

If Douglas does it anyway, you can return to this thread and say told you so. 

Understand it's more what I think he'll do than how I'd like him to have done it. IMO extending JFM when he did was senseless. If you're going to extend him early then extend him early. Doing it in Sept, before he's got a full year starting under his belt, is something one does when getting a big discount. He paid UFA money to him as though he was backed into a corner. I was one of the few who weren't celebrating when it happened, beyond being happy for the player. The time to do this was in March/April before the draft, when there was a threat to the player of being used merely situationally himself if the team took an edge rusher after signing Lawson. Just bad strategically to not use his leverage when he had it. 

Yeah.  I was kind of shocked at the money for JFM.  I am often shocked at the money.  It keeps going up and I am usually a few years behind.  I wonder if it was a message thing.  Guy was working hard and producing.  I certainly expected a more team friendly deal.  I think these guys may like to go safety.  The back end is way more important in this type of defense or maybe just more difficult.  They Seahawks drafted Thomas pretty high and paid those guys real money.  The 49ers had Ward and paid him and Tartt.  Reid was there when they got there, but they let him walk.  It will be interesting.  

[Sperm Edwards]

6 hours ago, BurntDice said:

Where are you seeing he’ll be top 15? I can’t find the 2022 contracts, but it looks like he’ll be in the 20s. I never said jfm was good or anything or the sort. He was overpaid sure, but not by much. You pretty much made a prime example of why an edge should be drafted. We don’t have a great one on the team and salehs D has always relied on getting to the QB. That is precisely WHY an edge needs to be drafted. One of my big issues with the D is quinnen Williams and Mosley. Williams is not playing like someone who should get paid. He’s having by far his worst year. He may need to be replaced in the near future also. Mosley just doesn’t fit in a 4-3 he’s way too slow. The transition from a 3-4 to a 4-3 has been rough for this group which I expected. If Lawson was playing it wouldn’t look this bad, but when you have an 18 mil a year lb who is terrible in space on the team it causes a lot of issues. 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/2022/average/defensive-end/

He'll be #13 for 2022 DEs. That's including DE/OLB edge rushers like you're alluding to, and DE/DT ends like Leonard Williams. This is before new 2022 contracts get signed, but it's also before others get canceled (e.g. Dee Ford, Frank Clark, and maybe JJ Watt).

No argument from me on Q and Mosley. But in truth, it's not just them: they're all playing worse than they did under a DC who got fired before the season ended. Is there anyone in the Jets' front 7 that isn't having a career-worst season?

And Mosley is going to be that much worse a year later, another year older and slower, when this age 29 season was supposed to be the last year (not that he doesn't look sucky already).

I can make a strong argument that Mosley is an even worse signing than Trumaine Johnson. The team could move on from Johnson after 2 seasons. Factoring in covid, the team's been locked into Mosley's contract for 4 seasons, two of which he basically didn't see the field, he's playing terrible in the next one, and who knows what for year 4. 

Absent a Mosley injury they're not going to do it, but at this point they may be better off with Davis in the middle, assuming he's fully got his sea legs back. I don't know how Mosley will look if suddenly tossing him out at olb, but he's not looking too hot now, and at least then he'll only have to cover a lot less area. 

[BurntDice]

3 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/2022/average/defensive-end/

He'll be #13 for 2022 DEs. That's including DE/OLB edge rushers like you're alluding to, and DE/DT ends like Leonard Williams. This is before new 2022 contracts get signed, but it's also before others get canceled (e.g. Dee Ford, Frank Clark, and maybe JJ Watt).

No argument from me on Q and Mosley. But in truth, it's not just them: they're all playing worse than they did under a DC who got fired before the season ended. Is there anyone in the Jets' front 7 that isn't having a career-worst season?

And Mosley is going to be that much worse a year later, another year older and slower, when this age 29 season was supposed to be the last year (not that he doesn't look sucky already).

I can make a strong argument that Mosley is an even worse signing than Trumaine Johnson. The team could move on from Johnson after 2 seasons. Factoring in covid, the team's been locked into Mosley's contract for 4 seasons, two of which he basically didn't see the field, he's playing terrible in the next one, and who knows what for year 4. 

Absent a Mosley injury they're not going to do it, but at this point they may be better off with Davis in the middle, assuming he's fully got his sea legs back. I don't know how Mosley will look if suddenly tossing him out at olb, but he's not looking too hot now, and at least then he'll only have to cover a lot less area. 

That was only DEs, that didn’t include 3-4 edge guys. He’s #24 for edge players. 
 

The only redeeming value for Mosley is his leadership value and setting guys up which does help with a young team. On the field he is absolutely terrible. I rewatched the colts game and just watched him on defense and he was cringe worthy on most of the plays. He was getting stuck in traffic, sprinting to the outside to catch up to the ball carrier and looked like he was stuck in mud. Just looked completely out of it most of the time.  It just goes to show how bad of a gm mac was. There was absolutely no reason to massively over pay a mlb. They just aren’t worth it. Pair that with bell and it was a cap nightmare. He obviously didn’t know how to build a team and see which positions to focus on. Sure jd hasn’t been perfect, but he’s bringing in guys at the right spots. He’s focusing on OL, edge, wr, and dt. Not giving out ridiculous contracts that he can’t get out of within 2 years in case they don’t work out. 
 

I was really hoping Q would step up this year since he has less guys in his face in a 4-3, but he can’t even beat single blocks anymore. You would think it would be easier on the lineman because it’s less thinking and more just attacking, but it’s just not working for whatever reason. 

[rangerous]

imo davis is still learning the game.  frequently he's out of position or misjudges the angles so he's playing catch up.  he's got some good talent.  hopefully he'll learn the game.

[Alworth]

2 hours ago, rangerous said:

imo davis is still learning the game.  frequently he's out of position or misjudges the angles so he's playing catch up.  he's got some good talent.  hopefully he'll learn the game.

I think he will grow mentally. My concern is his durability, based on track record to date and his reckless playing style.

[BurntDice]

2 hours ago, rangerous said:

imo davis is still learning the game.  frequently he's out of position or misjudges the angles so he's playing catch up.  he's got some good talent.  hopefully he'll learn the game.

I agree. I don’t think he’s been playing safety for very long. Maybe 4 years. He was a track athlete his entire life. He definitely seems to be improving like you are saying. I think he’ll really turn a corner if he can make it thru a full offseason next year. His ceiling is very high if he can grasp the mental part of it. 

[Sperm Edwards]

17 hours ago, BurntDice said:

That was only DEs, that didn’t include 3-4 edge guys. He’s #24 for edge players. 
 

The only redeeming value for Mosley is his leadership value and setting guys up which does help with a young team. On the field he is absolutely terrible. I rewatched the colts game and just watched him on defense and he was cringe worthy on most of the plays. He was getting stuck in traffic, sprinting to the outside to catch up to the ball carrier and looked like he was stuck in mud. Just looked completely out of it most of the time.  It just goes to show how bad of a gm mac was. There was absolutely no reason to massively over pay a mlb. They just aren’t worth it. Pair that with bell and it was a cap nightmare. He obviously didn’t know how to build a team and see which positions to focus on. Sure jd hasn’t been perfect, but he’s bringing in guys at the right spots. He’s focusing on OL, edge, wr, and dt. Not giving out ridiculous contracts that he can’t get out of within 2 years in case they don’t work out. 
 

I was really hoping Q would step up this year since he has less guys in his face in a 4-3, but he can’t even beat single blocks anymore. You would think it would be easier on the lineman because it’s less thinking and more just attacking, but it’s just not working for whatever reason. 

Because edge isn't a true position, but more of a role, it leads to misinterpretation like there is on that list. So what you'll see are teams that flip from 34 to 43 DLs, with LBs that are only OLB in the latter front (and move to ILB when playing 4 of them). And because it's more site-owner interpretation here, you get sloppy errors like listing Fred Warner as an edge rusher just because SF plays a lot of 34 fronts and he's nominally listed as an OLB because that's where he plays in a 43. 

Fred Warner is not a $20MM/year edge rusher. Leonard Williams is also more of a do-all DE not really a pure edge rusher per se. Same with JJ Watt, especially nowadays, and others. JFM's listed here, too. 

Point being, if the Jets drafted a type you're think of as an edge rusher, he wouldn't be playing OLB on JFM's side. More likely he'd have a hand in the dirt, which would move JFM inside with Q, and may partially negate whatever he brings to the table, like when Herm tried moving Ellis inside just because he was >290 lbs, and turned an above average DE into an ordinary (if not forgettable) DT, since they're not really gap-shooter types like Q.

The other effect of this - which is the reason I don't think it's going to happen - is it makes the GM look like his most recent 8-figure/yr contract extension was a terrible mistake. That JFM only has one more guaranteed season is mostly irrelevant in the court of public opinion. e.g. sportswriters and 99% of NFL fans still get blinded by dead cap sunk costs, and routinely claim that a player with no more guaranteed money left only clears x-amount of cap space, when in truth it clears every dollar the team will now no longer pay him. 

So I think JD's going to want to see how JFM plays opposite C.Lawson before he sinks a high/higher 1st rounder into another end or edge or whatever the label. Then after the season he'll reassess and, if he picks high enough and can trade down this April to add another 1st in '23, take an end/edge in round 1 a year later if the need is still perceived to be there.

I've been wrong before. If I'm wrong again about this, feel free to bump this thread and gloat and point and laugh . 

-- 

Re the rest, all these players - most notably on the line - who showed real production/prowess, suddenly looking ordinary? Something else is going on. Teammates don't just get innately less talented in their early to mid 20s at the same time as one another.

Also yes Mosley looks lousy. In the house we were commenting on it as the game started last week - let's just say Mrs S has heard me complain about him - with each early-game, fawning over him from Feely, only to have him conspicuously shut up about how marvelous Mosley is as the game went on.

[BurntDice]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Because edge isn't a true position, but more of a role, it leads to misinterpretation like there is on that list. So what you'll see are teams that flip from 34 to 43 DLs, with LBs that are only OLB in the latter front (and move to ILB when playing 4 of them). And because it's more site-owner interpretation here, you get sloppy errors like listing Fred Warner as an edge rusher just because SF plays a lot of 34 fronts and he's nominally listed as an OLB because that's where he plays in a 43. 

Fred Warner is not a $20MM/year edge rusher. Leonard Williams is also more of a do-all DE not really a pure edge rusher per se. Same with JJ Watt, especially nowadays, and others. JFM's listed here, too. 

Point being, if the Jets drafted a type you're think of as an edge rusher, he wouldn't be playing OLB on JFM's side. More likely he'd have a hand in the dirt, which would move JFM inside with Q, and may partially negate whatever he brings to the table, like when Herm tried moving Ellis inside just because he was >290 lbs, and turned an above average DE into an ordinary (if not forgettable) DT, since they're not really gap-shooter types like Q.

The other effect of this - which is the reason I don't think it's going to happen - is it makes the GM look like his most recent 8-figure/yr contract extension was a terrible mistake. That JFM only has one more guaranteed season is mostly irrelevant in the court of public opinion. e.g. sportswriters and 99% of NFL fans still get blinded by dead cap sunk costs, and routinely claim that a player with no more guaranteed money left only clears x-amount of cap space, when in truth it clears every dollar the team will now no longer pay him. 

So I think JD's going to want to see how JFM plays opposite C.Lawson before he sinks a high/higher 1st rounder into another end or edge or whatever the label. Then after the season he'll reassess and, if he picks high enough and can trade down this April to add another 1st in '23, take an end/edge in round 1 a year later if the need is still perceived to be there.

I've been wrong before. If I'm wrong again about this, feel free to bump this thread and gloat and point and laugh . 

-- 

Re the rest, all these players - most notably on the line - who showed real production/prowess, suddenly looking ordinary? Something else is going on. Teammates don't just get innately less talented in their early to mid 20s at the same time as one another.

Also yes Mosley looks lousy. In the house we were commenting on it as the game started last week - let's just say Mrs S has heard me complain about him - with each early-game, fawning over him from Feely, only to have him conspicuously shut up about how marvelous Mosley is as the game went on.

I’m completely fine with JFM being moved around. Do you see him being an elite guy like the bosas? I surely don’t. Guys like Hutchinson, karlaftis, or Jackson definitely can. That is a huge thing to acquire. The jfm extension should have 0 bearing here. Honestly it doesn’t matter at all for the upcoming draft. If jd is on the same page as you in this regard then he is a fool, you don’t pass up the opportunity to draft guys like these who will be locked in for 5 years because of a 1 year deal he just made with a jag. In regards to the olb/de cap figures there’s only 2 or 3 guys like Werner on that list for edge players which makes him around #21. Not outrageous by any means for a team desperate for qb pressure. Will he work out? Who knows, but you don’t sacrifice the future for someone like him. 

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, BurntDice said:

I’m completely fine with JFM being moved around. Do you see him being an elite guy like the bosas? I surely don’t. Guys like Hutchinson, karlaftis, or Jackson definitely can. That is a huge thing to acquire. The jfm extension should have 0 bearing here. Honestly it doesn’t matter at all for the upcoming draft. If jd is on the same page as you in this regard then he is a fool, you don’t pass up the opportunity to draft guys like these who will be locked in for 5 years because of a 1 year deal he just made with a jag. In regards to the olb/de cap figures there’s only 2 or 3 guys like Werner on that list for edge players which makes him around #21. Not outrageous by any means for a team desperate for qb pressure. Will he work out? Who knows, but you don’t sacrifice the future for someone like him. 

Except JFM isn't a pure edge rusher, as you said; he's more in the Leonard Williams or Erik Armstead mold. On this list all DEs are referred to as edge rushers, unless I'm missing an exception. Their edge rusher is Lawson, as it's pretty common for 43 teams to have one more in the (to use extremes) Garrett mold and one in the Leonard Williams mold, with the former dogging the QB's blind side. 

Regardless, you're still glossing over - really, ignoring - the very point I was making from the start:

It's very unlikely to happen because he was just given a contract extension at ~$14MM/year, with next year still fully guaranteed, to be the team's starting DE. This came several months (but within the same league year) after an even greater amount went to Carl Lawson, whose contract is also fully guaranteed next year. 

If he takes an "elite" end/edge prospect (i.e. top 5-10) in round 1 - and since the Jets are overwhelmingly not running 3-man fronts, end & edge titles have obvious crossover - it's bad optics for a GM who has to have already started feeling some heat internally.

Yeah I know Douglas still got multiple years left, but you can bet JFM's extension+raise was handed down with the idea that he & Lawson (the good one) would be DL bookends in '22 (Lawson RDE/JFM LDE). It'll look terrible - from a job standpoint - if he doesn't get more than a part-time rookie in round 1, or if he doesn't improve the team as much because he's eating up the cap space of what is still for many positions a probowl salary (or at a minimum, the difference between inking a marginal or lower-end starter like van Roten and a PB/AP starter with multiple prime years left).

So it's not a statement I was making on the merits or demerits of getting the team's next end/edge rusher in the top half (if not top 5-10) of round 1 a year earlier, which is plenty debatable. If this team's record next year looks anything like it does this year, he's getting canned. At that point Woody's less likely to worry about whether he still has 2 years left like Maccagnan had, or 2.5 years left, because his contract anniversary date is after the draft. 

[BurntDice]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Except JFM isn't a real edge rusher, as you said; he's more in the Leonard Williams or Erik Armstead mold. On this list all DEs are referred to as edge rushers, unless I'm missing an exception. Their edge rusher is Lawson, as it's pretty common for 43 teams to have one more in the (to use extremes) Garrett mold and one in the Leonard Williams mold, with the former dogging the QB's blind side. 

Regardless, you're still glossing over - really, ignoring - the very point I was making from the start:

It's very unlikely to happen because he was just given a contract extension at ~$14MM/year, with next year still fully guaranteed, to be the team's starting DE. This came several months (but within the same league year) after an even greater amount went to Carl Lawson, whose contract is also fully guaranteed next year. 

If he takes an "elite" end/edge prospect (i.e. top 5-10) in round 1 - and since the Jets are overwhelmingly not running 3-man fronts, end & edge titles have obvious crossover - it's bad optics for a GM who has to have already started feeling some heat internally.

Yeah I know Douglas still got multiple years left, but you can bet JFM's extension+raise was handed down with the idea that he & Lawson (the good one) would be DL bookends in '22 (Lawson RDE/JFM LDE). It'll look terrible - from a job standpoint - if he doesn't get more than a part-time rookie in round 1, or if he doesn't improve the team as much because he's eating up the cap space of what is still for many positions a probowl salary (or at a minimum, the difference between inking a marginal or lower-end starter like van Roten and a PB/AP starter with multiple prime years left).

So it's not a statement I was making on the merits or demerits of getting the team's next end/edge rusher in the top half (if not top 5-10) of round 1 a year earlier, which is plenty debatable. If this team's record next year looks anything like it does this year, he's getting canned. At that point Woody's less likely to worry about whether he still has 2 years left like Maccagnan had, or 2.5 years left, because his contract anniversary date is after the draft. 

I think our main difference is that you are thinking squarely on next year whereas I am not. I don’t see next year as a make it or break it year. Maybe a wild card push if all things go well.  With a young team such as the jets have building a solid foundation is key. Unless you have pro bowl level talent at premium positions or young guys with high upside then keep drafting players in those spots if they fit the system/draft spot. For this team it’s edge as the #1 priority above all else since that’s what fuels the defense. There are a ton of other picks to fill in for center/g/lb/cb/s/te plus a decent amount of cap space. 

This was never going to be a short term rebuild with the mess that jd was left with. A baron ol, bad qb, little defensive talent, etc this upcoming offseason is where the holes can be filled because they have a year of tape on the players in the current system and know who fits and who doesn’t.  I don’t believe for 1 second that jd or saleh will get fired if next year doesn’t go well. I believe that it will be a 6-10 win season however. So even if they are on the hot seat (which I don’t believe) then they will be fine with a borderline playoff push. 

[Sperm Edwards]

38 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

I think our main difference is that you are thinking squarely on next year whereas I am not. I don’t see next year as a make it or break it year. Maybe a wild card push if all things go well.  With a young team such as the jets have building a solid foundation is key. Unless you have pro bowl level talent at premium positions or young guys with high upside then keep drafting players in those spots if they fit the system/draft spot. For this team it’s edge as the #1 priority above all else since that’s what fuels the defense. There are a ton of other picks to fill in for center/g/lb/cb/s/te plus a decent amount of cap space. 

This was never going to be a short term rebuild with the mess that jd was left with. A baron ol, bad qb, little defensive talent, etc this upcoming offseason is where the holes can be filled because they have a year of tape on the players in the current system and know who fits and who doesn’t. 

No, I am thinking the GM who signed these players to these contracts will be thinking squarely on how that'll look next year.

I keep saying that but you still want to go over why you are in favor of it as though I'm Joe Douglas.

What I'm pointing out is the optics of it, not whether this will be a good team if they stay away from drafting an edge rusher in the top 5-10 picks, and it'll be the most horriblest waste if they do.

I can name multiple positions I wouldn't touch over an elite edge prospect inside the top 10, starting with the center position that some keep banging the drum over as though it's position 1B of OL importance.

[harris5214]

He has a nice haircut..I’m sure he is a great son and teammate but for ****s sake is he awful as a starting safety


Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app

[doitny]

1 hour ago, Sperm Edwards said:

No, I am thinking the GM who signed these players to these contracts will be thinking squarely on how that'll look next year.

I keep saying that but you still want to go over why you are in favor of it as though I'm Joe Douglas.

What I'm pointing out is the optics of it, not whether this will be a good team if they stay away from drafting an edge rusher in the top 5-10 picks, and it'll be the most horriblest waste if they do.

I can name multiple positions I wouldn't touch over an elite edge prospect inside the top 10, starting with the center position that some keep banging the drum over as though it's position 1B of OL importance.

thats because some people think we need a Center cause the last time we had a great line we had a great center ( Mangold, Mawae ) .or that we need to have  OL full of #1 picks or poor Zach will fail cause he cant have not one person sack or hit him. 

i dont care who we get on defense , it cant be an OL. 

you make good points about not getting an Edge. so then get a LB, or a CB..... or dare i say DT.. the only way i go offense is if there is a super WR or TE guy. and i only go with one. the other 1st rd must be defense.

the only thing i would say against your theory is that when JD signed Lawson and gave the extension to JFM he never envisioned us being historically bad. and with that he never thought he would be picking high enough to get one of the best in the draft.

and i blame Saleh for this defense. how do we go from the 1st 5 games of not giving up more than 27 pts not now giving up over 40 pts on avg? Bellicheck figure us out and the rest of the NFL saw it and are doing the same thing. and Saleh is not adjusting to it. 

 

[BurntDice]

44 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

No, I am thinking the GM who signed these players to these contracts will be thinking squarely on how that'll look next year.

I keep saying that but you still want to go over why you are in favor of it as though I'm Joe Douglas.

What I'm pointing out is the optics of it, not whether this will be a good team if they stay away from drafting an edge rusher in the top 5-10 picks, and it'll be the most horriblest waste if they do.

I can name multiple positions I wouldn't touch over an elite edge prospect inside the top 10, starting with the center position that some keep banging the drum over as though it's position 1B of OL importance.

You think he cares about how he looks? The ultimate way to improve how you look is by winning games long term. Nothing else matters. What he’s done in the past has shown that he doesn’t care about immediate satisfaction. He doesn’t care about headlines or you would have seen mac type moves like bell and Mosley. If anything he’s been overly stringent and has been very anti headline moves.  There could even be a trade this off-season similar to what the bills did with diggs.  That could be a headline move to improve how he looks in many peoples eyes. 
 

I agree that linderbaum or ekwanu should be drafted with the 2nd first round pick. Going with them with the first would be a massive reach. He might even trade that pick down for future draft picks since 2023 doesn’t have any additional picks as far as I know. There haven’t been any centers taken in the first 20 picks in recent memory. 

[BurntDice]

26 minutes ago, doitny said:

thats because some people think we need a Center cause the last time we had a great line we had a great center ( Mangold, Mawae ) .or that we need to have  OL full of #1 picks or poor Zach will fail cause he cant have not one person sack or hit him. 

i dont care who we get on defense , it can be an OL. 

you make good points about not getting an Edge. so then get a LB, or a CB..... or dare i say DT.. the only way i go offense is if there is a super WR or TE guy. and i only go with one. the other 1st rd must be defense.

the only thing i would say against your theory is that when JD signed Lawson and gave the extension to JFM he never envisioned us being historically bad. and with that he never thought he would be picking high enough to get one of the best in the draft.

and i blame Saleh for this defense. how do we go from the 1st 5 games of not giving up more than 27 pts not now giving up over 40 pts on avg? Bellicheck figure us out and the rest of the NFL saw it and are doing the same thing. and Saleh is not adjusting to it. 

 

I feel that maye getting hurt really hindered this defense. There is 0 safety depth and the lbs are a mess. Teams have been putting in extra guys on the line to get rid of our only strength on defense (dl). The rest of the d is very weak. The lbs can’t cover and neither can the safeties. Echols is the only other outside cb besides hall and he’s been in and out of games. That forces a slot cb to be playing outside the entire times and getting exposed They are constantly bringing in a te to block and sometimes bring in a rb also. Ulbrick has been forced to blitz because the d can’t cover for more than a couple seconds no matter what. 

[Sperm Edwards]

32 minutes ago, doitny said:

thats because some people think we need a Center cause the last time we had a great line we had a great center ( Mangold, Mawae ) .or that we need to have  OL full of #1 picks or poor Zach will fail cause he cant have not one person sack or hit him. 

i dont care who we get on defense , it cant be an OL. 

you make good points about not getting an Edge. so then get a LB, or a CB..... or dare i say DT.. the only way i go offense is if there is a super WR or TE guy. and i only go with one. the other 1st rd must be defense.

the only thing i would say against your theory is that when JD signed Lawson and gave the extension to JFM he never envisioned us being historically bad. and with that he never thought he would be picking high enough to get one of the best in the draft.

and i blame Saleh for this defense. how do we go from the 1st 5 games of not giving up more than 27 pts not now giving up over 40 pts on avg? Bellicheck figure us out and the rest of the NFL saw it and are doing the same thing. and Saleh is not adjusting to it. 

 

My points on edge were purely in reference with what I think Douglas will/won't do.

Also depends where they start (what slots), what the trade-down opportunities are, who's there, who we're likely to miss out on by moving down, etc.

I don't know how high we'll pick, but if it's anything like last year and there's an opportunity with a team who's loving a QB we're clearly not drafting, I don't see how we pass up on a haul by taking another position.

Agree on Saleh in more ways than one. Just too many guys playing below their potential. 

[Sperm Edwards]

14 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

I feel that maye getting hurt really hindered this defense. There is 0 safety depth and the lbs are a mess. Teams have been putting in extra guys on the line to get rid of our only strength on defense (dl). The rest of the d is very weak. The lbs can’t cover and neither can the safeties. Echols is the only other outside cb besides hall and he’s been in and out of games. That forces a slot cb to be playing outside the entire times and getting exposed They are constantly bringing in a te to block and sometimes bring in a rb also. Ulbrick has been forced to blitz because the d can’t cover for more than a couple seconds no matter what. 

People won't want to hear it - many/most are still in withdrawal over taking Adams over Mahomes/Watson - but depending where we are, especially with the Seattle pick, a FS wouldn't surprise me at all. 

Not at ****ing 6 though lol.

[BurntDice]

5 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

People won't want to hear it - many/most are still in withdrawal over taking Adams over Mahomes/Watson - but depending where we are, especially with the Seattle pick, a FS wouldn't surprise me at all. 

Not at ****ing 6 though lol.

If Hamilton is available at the SEA pick I’d be 100% on board. I highly doubt it though with how he’s being regarded. In the 2nd I can def see it though with hill, cine, or catalon. 

[Sperm Edwards]

32 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

You think he cares about how he looks? The ultimate way to improve how you look is by winning games long term. Nothing else matters. What he’s done in the past has shown that he doesn’t care about immediate satisfaction. He doesn’t care about headlines or you would have seen mac type moves like bell and Mosley. If anything he’s been overly stringent and has been very anti headline moves.  There could even be a trade this off-season similar to what the bills did with diggs.  That could be a headline move to improve how he looks in many peoples eyes. 
 

I agree that linderbaum or ekwanu should be drafted with the 2nd first round pick. Going with them with the first would be a massive reach. He might even trade that pick down for future draft picks since 2023 doesn’t have any additional picks as far as I know. There haven’t been any centers taken in the first 20 picks in recent memory. 

Maybe I'm wrong, but yes I do think he cares now. He can't do the long term / patience thing again and expect willing listeners as he's entering his 3rd season of players he's picked. If they're hovering in the top 5-10 yet again, he might get canned early. He'll still collect, but his goal isn't to get paid to do nothing; this is what he wants to do. 

I definitely think he's going to look to trade down, especially if they do pick way up high; it's a nice luxury to have a pair of 1s and he'd love for that to continue. Plus how many rookies does he again want his coaches to field? 

Re: centers there have been ones around 20, including fairly recently, but never in the top half of round 1. Here are the 1st round centers drafted since the Jets might've even imagined planning for life after Mangold:

1. 2015 #19 - Cameron Erving = bust
2. 2016 #18 - Ryan Kelly honestly has been mostly good or pretty good not great, and isn't the "super stud center" people here have in mind when they're advocating using a 1st round pick on a center. Both his probowl votes were weak, and no one thought of him in those terms until he played next to Nelson. Honestly his backup's no worse so far.
3. 2018 #20 - Frank Ragnow = best of this group, and the Lions have sucked anyway because he's just a ****ing center. This year he's played 3 games and is on IR.
4. 2018 #21 - Billy Price = bust
5. 2019 #18 - Garrett Bradbury = bust
6. 2020 #24 - Cesar Ruiz = bust

[Sperm Edwards]

5 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

If Hamilton is available at the SEA pick I’d be 100% on board. I highly doubt it though with how he’s being regarded. In the 2nd I can def see it though with hill, cine, or catalon. 

I don't know crap about these kids; I was just floating the idea of a FS should there be a prospect worthy there, but I have no one in mind. 

[doitny]

57 minutes ago, BurntDice said:

I feel that maye getting hurt really hindered this defense. There is 0 safety depth and the lbs are a mess. Teams have been putting in extra guys on the line to get rid of our only strength on defense (dl). The rest of the d is very weak. The lbs can’t cover and neither can the safeties. Echols is the only other outside cb besides hall and he’s been in and out of games. That forces a slot cb to be playing outside the entire times and getting exposed They are constantly bringing in a te to block and sometimes bring in a ton also. Ulbrick has been forced to blitz because the d can’t cover for more than a couple seconds no matter what. 

yeah something happened the last few weeks to expose that defense. its sad to cause we could have won a couple of games if they were better. and this fan base wouldnt be jumping off the Brooklyn Bridge

[BCJet]

14 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I don't know crap about these kids; I was just floating the idea of a FS should there be a prospect worthy there, but I have no one in mind. 

Hamilton wont last outside of the top 10 unless his injury is more severe then it seems and Im ok with him being our pick, even if its our own and its 3/4.

Yes, edge rusher is a more valuable position, and the safety argument has been discussed a ton here, but this defense absolutely cannot survive without elite safety play.  Saleh's defense, for better or worse, was only really successful when he 1. moved away from single high, or 2. when it was executed by a secondary with Earl Thomas.  Our defense is desperately in need of speed and playmaking ability and hamilton is big enough to play the run and elite in coverage.  While unpopular, he would be a fine pick in this draft.

With respect to the DL question (and mosley) Sperm is right that there is more to it then the defenders just not playing well - the scheme and substitution patterns are a huge problem.

Look at the DL - QW, Franklin Myers and especially Foley are all still the same good players they were before, but suddenly they have little to no impact?  QW is still beating his guy and putting up numbers, he just needs to play 75% of the snaps, not 60%, but how on earth can you explain Foley having no run stopping impact at all?  (btw he is in a contract year as well).  Its fine to have a scheme, but you CANNOT be married to it, regardless of the outcome - its not working and Saleh needs to make some changes, especially on early downs.

I also think this carries over to Mosley, who while overpaid, is in my mind being used REALLY poorly.  Mosley has been used as a blitzer a ton this season, a role that actually plays to his weakest ability.  He is a smart player, with good hands, and who has excelled in zone defense - why on earth would we blitz him, because the scheme says so? (his best 2 seasons in Baltimore he had 1 sack and 6 ints combined).  I get that he is playing next to rookies or street-level players, but if you really want to blitz, put Davis or Guidry in as the nickel and let them blitz while Mosley plays in coverage.  Its really inexplicable. On top of that, he is going to get washed over in the run game if our DL is simply penetrating and letting guards get into him - if we play some 2-gap, which plays to Foley's strengths, then Mosley can make a better impact in the run game.

If our DC cannot adapt from game to game and continues to have his team gashed by screens and play action without making any changes, then he is simply not an NFL level coordinator and Saleh cannot keep his blind loyalty this offseason.