Will Zach Do Better vs. Buffalo's Defense than Mike White Did?

[Jetsfan80]

56 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Why do you say he had a better rookie year than Darnold? 

Not only was he worse in every quantifiable way (with I'd argue a better supporting cast and a better OC) but I think he "flashed" far less and had fewer "good games."

He did what Darnold couldn't:  Had a solid game against a legitimately strong opponent.  The Packers D that Darnold lit up was bad, and the rest of his schedule was one of the weakest schedules, historically, that has ever been played.  

[Jetsfan80]

56 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

It’s a good thing the goal isn’t to have the best rookie year. 

It sure would be nice to know without a shadow of a doubt that you have "the guy" prior to year 2.  Instead all we have is a whole lot of questions.  

[Jetsfan80]

48 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

@Jetsfan80

 

Are either of these QB numbers remarkably better than the other?

 

QB A :

Comp Att: 383

Comp: 213

Yards: 2,334

TD: 9

TD%: 2.3

Int: 11

Int %: 2.9

Rate:69.7

 

QB B:

Comp Att: 293

Comp: 155

Yards: 1,749

TD: 9

TD%: 3.1

Int: 18

Int%: 6.1%

Rate: 55.7

 

Did Zach Wilson win a rookie of the month award?

[Jetsfan80]

44 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

To be fair, Sam Darnold lit up that same Bucs defense yesterday. That team has some issues heading into the playoffs

Is this sarcasm?  He threw for 219 yards on 42 attempts and the offense scored 17 points.

[nj meadowlands]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It sure would be nice to know without a shadow of a doubt that you have "the guy" prior to year 2.  Instead all we have is a whole lot of questions.  

If onlys and justs were candies and nuts, then everyday would be Erntedankfest

Douglas should build the team as though he's got Andy Dalton starting at QB.  Just assume ZW is a mediocre game manager, and build around him.  Bring in Allen Robinson, Garrett Wilson, Dalton Schultz, and Kenneth Walker.  All of them.  

I think Wilson is going to be good, but the Jets should plan to lift him up instead of just sitting on their hands, and chewing him up and sh*tting him out when he doesn't lift them up.

[ScarletKnight89]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

He did what Darnold couldn't:  Had a solid game against a legitimately strong opponent.  The Packers D that Darnold lit up was bad, and the rest of his schedule was one of the weakest schedules, historically, that has ever been played.  

Packers D was bad, but it sure would have been nice for Zach Wilson to have one monster game in the closing games of the season to hang his hat on as we enter the off season.

[Jetsfan80]

And guys, you're splitting hairs here.  Whether Wilson was indeed better than Darnold or Geno in his rookie year is kind of irrelevant.  The discouraging part is we're even having this discussion in the first place.  Wilson sucked as a rookie and will need to take a pretty enormous, almost historically unprecedented leap in year 2 for anyone to feel good about him being "the guy". 

There's a pretty big gap for Wilson to get from QB31/32 to about QB20 or better, which I think would be a fair benchmark we need him to get to.

[slimjasi]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It sure would be nice to know without a shadow of a doubt that you have "the guy" prior to year 2.  Instead all we have is a whole lot of questions.  

Yes. I agree

one day, hopefully before we die,  we will draft someone like Justin Herbert and it will be glorious. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, nj meadowlands said:

If onlys and justs were candies and nuts, then everyday would be Erntedankfest

Douglas should build the team as though he's got Andy Dalton starting at QB.  Just assume ZW is a mediocre game manager, and build around him.  Bring in Allen Robinson, Garrett Wilson, Dalton Schultz, and Kenneth Walker.  All of them.  

I think Wilson is going to be good, but the Jets should plan to lift him up instead of just sitting on their hands, and chewing him up and sh*tting him out when he doesn't lift them up.

If that truly is an assumption that Douglas needs to make, then he needs to be looking to either upgrade the QB position this offseason OR at least bring in legitimate competition.  If you believe your QB is Andy Dalton, its already a sunk cost.  

Moreover, whether Douglas thinks Wilson is Andy Dalton or not, acquiring more talent on offense is a necessity regardless.  There's no reason not to.  He has seemingly endless resources at his fingertips this offseason.  

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

Packers D was bad, but it sure would have been nice for Zach Wilson to have one monster game in the closing games of the season to hang his hat on as we enter the off season.

Exactly.  I was thinking the Bucs game might be that, but his quiet 4th quarter merely made that game a very good one rather than a "monster" game.  

[Scott Dierking]

12 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Did Zach Wilson win a rookie of the month award?

Not sure, but pretty positive he won Utah He-man hunk of the month.

Which bad rookie season qb won rookie of the month award?

 

[ScarletKnight89]

8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And guys, you're splitting hairs here.  Whether Wilson was indeed better than Darnold or Geno in his rookie year is kind of irrelevant.  The discouraging part is we're even having this discussion in the first place.  Wilson sucked as a rookie and will need to take a pretty enormous, almost historically unprecedented leap in year 2 for anyone to feel good about him being "the guy". 

There's a pretty big gap for Wilson to get from QB31/32 to about QB20 or better, which I think would be a fair benchmark we need him to get to.

 

The only guy who I can think of who took a huge leap like that was Matthew Stafford, and I think he actually missed a lot of time his second year and then took off in year 3. Josh Allen did it in year 3 also. 

Jets have to just surround him with as much offensive talent as possible and hope he can make a sizable jump. 

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Not sure, but pretty positive he won Utah He-man hunk of the month.

Which bad rookie season qb won rookie of the month award?

Geno Smith

[Jetsfan80]

3 minutes ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

 

The only guy who I can think of who took a huge leap like that was Matthew Stafford, and I think he actually missed a lot of time his second year and then took off in year 3. Josh Allen did it in year 3 also. 

Jets have to just surround him with as much offensive talent as possible and hope he can make a sizable jump. 

Indeed.  And Wilson doesn't have the physical gifts that Allen or Stafford had.  And for every Allen and Stafford, there's at least a dozen highly drafted QB's in the 2005-present era who sucked in year one (or didn't get a chance to play) and continued to stay bad (or never got a chance).

The odds are stacked against him.  His stock has declined pretty precipitously from his pre-draft assessments, and its up to him to turn things around.  Not Joe Douglas, not Robert Saleh, not Mike LaFleur:  Wilson.  The training wheels come off in year 2.  And meanwhile, one way or another, he WILL be surrounded by a strong supporting cast.

[Scott Dierking]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Geno Smith

That certainly wasn't the qb I was using to measure zach against. Back to the stat comparison I gave you. Do you have a poison to pick there?

[Scott Dierking]

18 hours ago, Warfish said:

The Jets might have had more than 5 yards passing net tho, so at least there woulda been that.

Did you just invent a stat there? NFL counts sacks against a qb' and teams rushing yards.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Scott Dierking said:

That certainly wasn't the qb I was using to measure zach against. Back to the stat comparison I gave you. Do you have a poison to pick there?

I thought you were posting Geno's numbers.  Both QB's sucked but sure, Wilson's look better.  

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Scott Dierking said:

Did you just invent a stat there? NFL counts sacks against a qb' and teams rushing yards.

No, sacks count against a team's net passing yards, not rushing.  Why would you lose rushing yards on a passing play?

I think it's more than relevant given Wilson's propensity to run backwards or hold the ball forever.  Certainly there is blame to be spread to others for why those things happen a lot of the time but even when the team was at relatively "full strength", he was doing those things, too.

[slimjasi]

2 minutes ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

 

The only guy who I can think of who took a huge leap like that was Matthew Stafford, and I think he actually missed a lot of time his second year and then took off in year 3. Josh Allen did it in year 3 also. 

Jets have to just surround him with as much offensive talent as possible and hope he can make a sizable jump. 

Some notable examples of big year 2 leaps: Peyton Manning, John Elway, Carson Palmer. It can also happen in year 3 for sure (e.g. Allen, Drew Brees). 

 

[Scott Dierking]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No, sacks count against a team's net passing yards, not rushing.  Why would you lose rushing yards on a passing play?

I think it's more than relevant given Wilson's propensity to run backwards or hold the ball forever.  Certainly there is blame to be spread to others for why those things happen a lot of the time but even when the team was at relatively "full strength", he was doing those things, too.

Yes, net passing yards, my bad. 

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

Some notable examples of big year 2 leaps: Peyton Manning, John Elway, Carson Palmer. It can also happen in year 3 for sure (e.g. Allen, Drew Brees). 

You're digging pretty far back for those examples.  Those guys were playing a completely different sport from the one we've known since the Ty Law rule went into effect in 2005. 

It's much harder to excuse terrible QB play in today's NFL, even for rookies.

[slimjasi]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

You're digging pretty far back for those examples.  Those guys were playing a completely different sport from the one we've known since the Ty Law rule went into effect in 2005. 

It's much harder to excuse terrible QB play in today's NFL, even for rookies.

Eh, I'm not sure era is a big factor in whether a guy gets better or not. Josh Allen just did it, after all. 

Young players have the potential to get better. 

[Scott Dierking]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

You're digging pretty far back for those examples.  Those guys were playing a completely different sport from the one we've known since the Ty Law rule went into effect in 2005.

The quarterback example I gave you was Troy Aikman.

The sport was not all that different. They counted completions, INT's, TDs were worth 6 points, etc. The biggest difference in the NFL between those 2 eras are namely the number of passing attempts, and average throws were longer per attempt back in that "ice age".  

Bottom line of this, yes, a QB can have a "bad" rookie season and rebound. They have happened. Makes no guarantee for Wilson, though. Every qb is different.

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, slimjasi said:

Eh, I'm not sure era is a big factor in whether a guy gets better or not. Josh Allen just did it, after all. 

Young players have the potential to get better. 

Of course its a big factor.  Never before has it been easier for a college QB to transfer to the pros, given that the pro game is starting to resemble the college game quite a bit in terms of style.  The college game didn't have pro style offenses when John Elway played.  

And as I've said numerous times before, there's very little to learn from Josh Allen's unprecedented improvement in year 3.  He's a tremendous athlete AND he somehow "fixed" his accuracy/turnover issues that he'd had throughout his college career and first 2 years in the pros.  That just doesn't happen, ever. 

The far better bet for Wilson defenders is to use Stafford as your example.  

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Scott Dierking said:

The quarterback example I gave you was Troy Aikman.

The sport was not all that different. They counted completions, INT's, TDs were worth 6 points, etc. The biggest difference in the NFL between those 2 eras are namely the number of passing attempts, and average throws were longer per attempt back in that "ice age".  

No, the biggest difference is DBs were allowed to mug receivers and now can barely touch them.  That's a pretty friggin huge difference.

And even Troy Aikman wasn't all that good for his era.  I don't think he belongs in the HOF at all.  He's one of the rare instances where the talent around you is SO good, it's almost not even fair the advantages he had.

[ScarletKnight89]

Just now, slimjasi said:

Some notable examples of big year 2 leaps: Peyton Manning, John Elway, Carson Palmer. It can also happen in year 3 for sure (e.g. Allen, Drew Brees). 

 

Fair. I was thinking more recent era but those are good examples as well. Jared Goff's play dramatically improved from year 1 to year 2 when the Rams got rid of Jeff Fischer and brought in Sean McVay. But we know how that turned out overall....still a big jump though in performance. 

He's going to need to make a big jump. I think there is reason for hope because I believe in his physical talent and I saw enough moments/games/parts of games to make me think the talent is there, but consistency is going to be the big thing. 

Jets just have to put as much talent around him as possible.

[Scott Dierking]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

Of course its a big factor.  Never before has it been easier for a college QB to transfer to the pros, given that the pro game is starting to resemble the college game quite a bit in terms of style.  The college game didn't have pro style offenses when John Elway played.  

And as I've said numerous times before, there's very little to learn from Josh Allen's unprecedented improvement in year 3.  He's a tremendous athlete AND he somehow "fixed" his accuracy/turnover issues that he'd had throughout his college career and first 2 years in the pros.  That just doesn't happen, ever. 

The far better bet for Wilson defenders is to use Stafford as your example.  

And also, NFL defenses are much more exotic and varied now, than they have ever been.

You are oversimplifying the subject matter.

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, Scott Dierking said:

And also, NFL defenses are much more exotic and varied now, than they have ever been.

How is that working out for NFL defenses lately?

[Scott Dierking]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

No, the biggest difference is DBs were allowed to mug receivers and now can barely touch them.  That's a pretty friggin huge difference.

And even Troy Aikman wasn't all that good for his era.  I don't think he belongs in the HOF at all.

If Zach Wilson turned out to have Troy Aikmans career, i would be elated. 

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, Scott Dierking said:

If Zach Wilson turned out to have Troy Aikmans career, i would be elated. 

Do we also get Aikman's world class offensive line, defense, and Emmitt Smith?

[Scott Dierking]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

How is that working out for NFL defenses lately?

How is that working out for rookie QB's is the question at hand. Most of them struggle. 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

How is that working out for rookie QB's is the question at hand. Most of them struggle. 

Most.  Not all.  Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert didn't struggle too badly out of the gates.  And Herbert had the NFL's # 32 ranked OL and a HC who ended up getting fired.

And there are levels of struggles.  Tua and Wentz didn't struggle like rookies as much as Wilson has.  And neither of those are good QB's.

[Scott Dierking]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

Do we also get Aikman's world class offensive line, defense, and Emmitt Smith?

That is a question for Joe Douglas, not me. To quibble about the talent of Troy Aikman is a bit petty. Even for you ?

[Scott Dierking]

Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

Most.  Not all.  Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert didn't struggle too badly out of the gates.  And Herbert had the NFL's # 32 ranked OL and a HC who ended up getting fired.

And there are levels of struggles.  Tua didn't struggle like a rookie as much as Wilson has.  Neither did Mitchell Trubisky.  And neither of those QB's are good.

I said Most. Why must you do this?

[slimjasi]

8 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Of course its a big factor.  Never before has it been easier for a college QB to transfer to the pros, given that the pro game is starting to resemble the college game quite a bit in terms of style.  The college game didn't have pro style offenses when John Elway played.  

And as I've said numerous times before, there's very little to learn from Josh Allen's unprecedented improvement in year 3.  He's a tremendous athlete AND he somehow "fixed" his accuracy/turnover issues that he'd had throughout his college career and first 2 years in the pros.  That just doesn't happen, ever. 

The far better bet for Wilson defenders is to use Stafford as your example.  

I don’t see what Allen’s athleticism has to do with anything. The big thing Allen improved was his accuracy and decision making (but especially accuracy) from the pocket. Wilson has plenty of athletic tools to be a good QB.

and, in terms of era, I don’t see the argument. Guys have improved in modern times and well beforehand. Young guys have an opportunity to get better. Remember, the vast majority of guys bust or disappoint, so trying to pick out patterns from the exceptions is very difficult. 
 

the idea that we know what a guy is after 13 starts on a bad team is insane to me