Will Zach Do Better vs. Buffalo's Defense than Mike White Did?

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

I said Most. Why must you do this?

Because most rookie QB's don't struggle as much as Wilson has as a rookie.  And they certainly don't struggle like they did in the pre-Ty Law rule era.  I think that's relevant because of how many people insist on bringing up Peyton, Aikman, Elway, Brees, etc and suggest those are comparable to Zach Wilson in 2021. 

We see those comparisons posted all the time, and yet they're not relevant at all.  If people want to bring up Allen and Stafford, fine.  Just don't bristle too much when I retort by bringing up Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, JaMarcus Russell, DeShone Kizer, etc.

[slimjasi]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Most.  Not all.  Kyler Murray, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert didn't struggle too badly out of the gates.  And Herbert had the NFL's # 32 ranked OL and a HC who ended up getting fired.

And there are levels of struggles.  Tua and Wentz didn't struggle like rookies as much as Wilson has.  And neither of those are good QB's.

Right, but most struggle to some degree. 

it would be great to draft Dan Marino or Justin Herbert, but that is pretty hard to do 

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Right, but most struggle to some degree. 

it would be great to draft Dan Marino or Justin Herbert, but that is pretty hard to do 

There's a lot of gray area between Wilson and Justin Herbert.  Carson Wentz, for instance, threw for 16 TDs and 14 INTs as a rookie.  Tua had 11 TDs and 5 INTs in 9 starts.  Even Ryan Tannehill, the posterchild for bust-turned-elite game manager here, had 12 TDs to 13 INTs with a decent 6.8 YPA. 

Stafford was terrible but at least threw for 227 yards per game as he tried to make things happen.  Wilson couldn't break 200, 12 years later when the game has become increasingly pass-heavy.

I'd have taken the production of any of those guys.  

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Because most rookie QB's don't struggle as much as Wilson has as a rookie.  And they certainly don't struggle like they did in the pre-Ty Law rule era.  I think that's relevant because of how many people insist on bringing up Peyton, Aikman, Elway, Brees, etc and suggest those are comparable to Zach Wilson in 2021. 

We see those comparisons posted all the time, and yet they're not relevant at all.  If people want to bring up Allen and Stafford, fine.  Just don't bristle too much when I retort by bringing up Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, JaMarcus Russell, DeShone Kizer, etc.

So basicallyyyy…every situation is different and it’s stupid to compare. 

[UntouchableCrew]

59 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

The Buffalo defense in 2018 is better than the Buffalo Defense from this year?  That’s highly, highly debatable.  And if 170 passing yards and 1 td 1 int is the bar for a good game then Darnold didn’t have way, way more good performances than Wilson.

Okay, the Buffalo defense was better this year. And Wilson was utterly pathetic against it.

And if we're going to claim that a home game against the Bucs without their two best pass rushers is a "good game" with an 89 passer rating I think it's fair to say a road game against a healthy Bills team with an 84 passer rating falls into the same bucket.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, Zachtomims47 said:

So basicallyyyy…every situation is different and it’s stupid to compare. 

I mean, if you want to say that Russell, Kizer, Darnold, Rosen and Geno were secretly good but just were handed bad situations, have at it.  I'll follow the numbers on this one.  There's enough sample size out there to suggest that QB's who have bad rookie seasons are far, far more likely to stay bad than become good.  

[UntouchableCrew]

56 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I'd be curious to know what "goal posts" I have moved. I have been very consistent on this board with respect to two basic points:

1) The obsession over rookie QB stats is largely misguided. In general, we are overreacting to small sample sizes of first year players in different situations. Years 2 and 3 are much more telling/definitive. I don't really worry about a rookie season unless I see some fundamental shortcoming that tells me the player is incapable of developing or has some character issue. 

2) The big thing I look for from rookies at any position is improvement as the season progresses. 

Does a stronger finish mean Wilson will be good? Definitely not. Most guys bust and everyone seems to bust here, so statistically, Wilson will probably bust. 

I agree that he needs to take the proverbial second year jump. 

Well you're reframing Wilson's performance based on the perceived situation/strength of the defense he's facing but not doing so for Darnold in the same way, IMO. That's what I mean by moving goalposts.

That said, despite our disagreements I don't think we're that far off. You just feel a little better about Wilson than I do.

[Jetsfan80]

9 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I don’t see what Allen’s athleticism has to do with anything. The big thing Allen improved was his accuracy and decision making (but especially accuracy) from the pocket. Wilson has plenty of athletic tools to be a good QB.

and, in terms of era, I don’t see the argument. Guys have improved in modern times and well beforehand. Young guys have an opportunity to get better. Remember, the vast majority of guys bust or disappoint, so trying to pick out patterns from the exceptions is very difficult. 
 

the idea that we know what a guy is after 13 starts on a bad team is insane to me 

 

I'm saying that Allen was a freak, both athletically and in his drive to improve, and there's nothing to learn from him.  You're very unlikely to ever see a QB make the kind of improvement Allen made ever again.  So leaning on that as a reason why Wilson will become a success is not a worthwhile venture.    

[Jetsfan80]

12 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

the idea that we know what a guy is after 13 starts on a bad team is insane to me 

That's how many starts the Cardinals gave Josh Rosen on a bad team before giving up on him.  Were they insane for doing so?  Because they don't seem to regret it much, and Rosen hasn't "stuck it to them" at his other destinations.

Wilson didn't out-produce Rosen by all that much, either.

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

There's a lot of gray area between Wilson and Justin Herbert.  Carson Wentz, for instance, threw for 16 TDs and 14 INTs as a rookie.  Tua had 11 TDs and 5 INTs in 9 starts.  Even Ryan Tannehill, the posterchild for bust-turned-elite game manager here, had 12 TDs to 13 INTs with a decent 6.8 YPA. 

I'd have taken the production of any of those guys.  

Right, we are coming to the same argument over and over again. 
 

The vast majority of guys bust or disappoint. I’m not convinced that a QB’s rookie stats are statistically useful for figuring out whether he is going to buck the general trend and become a franchise QB. 
 

I like to take a look after year 2, and if it’s close, again after year 3. 

 

[Warfish]

28 minutes ago, Scott Dierking said:

Did you just invent a stat there? NFL counts sacks against a qb' and teams rushing yards.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/matchup?gameId=401326587

When you look down at the 11th line, Passing, it shows us with 5 total.

Which seems to be Zach's 87 total yards passing less the 82 yards lost by Zach from sacks.  5 yards net total.

Now, when the NFL calculates Team Passing, I don't know if they do it this way or not.  This is from ESPN.

Makes sense, a sack is a passing play, not a rushing play.  So it should net against passing.

Just checked pro football reference, and they have team passing as 5 yards as well:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nyj/2021.htm

So I presume that is how it is, lost sack yards get netted against passing.  I guess the two numbers have never so so close as to be so obvious before.

 

[UntouchableCrew]

51 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

He did what Darnold couldn't:  Had a solid game against a legitimately strong opponent.  The Packers D that Darnold lit up was bad, and the rest of his schedule was one of the weakest schedules, historically, that has ever been played.  

I'm kind of baffled that people are putting that much stock in this Covid ravaged Bucs performance. He was solid against a good defense... Okay? 

The Colts were 10th in scoring defense and 11th in YPG against in 2018. Darnold was 24 of 30 (80%) for 280 yards against the with 2 TDs 1 INT. 9.3 YPA... Why doesn't that count? Forget the Packers, Texans, or Bills games (three in a row! can you imagine!)

And people keep talking about the Packers defense that Darnold shredded claiming they were awful. They were 18th in YPG against and 22nd in PPG against. Far from great but it's not like they were the 2021 Jets out there. That was a legitimately high end NFL QB performance -- the kind us Jets fans typically only dream about and something Wilson has not sniffed.

[Warfish]

30 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Some notable examples of big year 2 leaps: Peyton Manning, John Elway, Carson Palmer. It can also happen in year 3 for sure (e.g. Allen, Drew Brees). 

 

Do you think Wilson is a future Manning or Elway?

[ScarletKnight89]

Just now, slimjasi said:

Right, we are coming to the same argument over and over again. 
 

The vast majority of guys bust or disappoint. I’m not convinced that a QB’s rookie stats are statistically useful for figuring out whether he is going to buck the general trend and become a franchise QB. 
 

I like to take a look after year 2, and if it’s close, again after year 3. 

 

I generally fall into this category as well. Year 2 is the big year. It just would have been nicer if the stretch of games Wilson played after he came back from injury was what he did all season. He had a couple of dud performances (Houston, New Orleans, Buffalo) but all the other games were relatively solid and gave you some hope. From the Philly game through the Tampa game, that was 5 out of 6 games where you could start to feel good about Zach IMO. The Buffalo game just leaves a sour taste in my mouth though ending the season. 

 

[ScarletKnight89]

3 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

I'm kind of baffled that people are putting that much stock in this Covid ravaged Bucs performance. He was solid against a good defense... Okay? 

The Colts were 10th in scoring defense and 11th in YPG against in 2018. Darnold was 24 of 30 (80%) for 280 yards against the with 2 TDs 1 INT. 9.3 YPA... Why doesn't that count? Forget the Packers, Texans, or Bills games (three in a row! can you imagine!)

And people keep talking about the Packers defense that Darnold shredded claiming they were awful. They were 18th in YPG against and 22nd in PPG against. Far from great but it's not like they were the 2021 Jets out there. That was a legitimately high end NFL QB performance -- the kind us Jets fans typically only dream about and something Wilson has not sniffed.

Yeah but to be fair, the Jets were missing players as well for that game. Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, and Crowder were all out. That's a big deal when you have a rookie QB.

[Jet Nut]

2 hours ago, slimjasi said:

It’s a good thing the goal isn’t to have the best rookie year. 

Or not being able to admit that Geno played on a team with more talent

[slimjasi]

7 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Do you think Wilson is a future Manning or Elway?

Statistically very unlikely, but a lot of QBs have made big improvements from year 1 to year 2

(I.e. he doesn’t have to be a HOFer) 

[Jet Nut]

20 minutes ago, Zachtomims47 said:

So basicallyyyy…every situation is different and it’s stupid to compare. 

And any comparable you bring up won’t count.  Because we’re pushing the crazy idea that if you struggle as a rookie you always will.  This is the nonsensical narrative being pushed in his time frame.  

[Jet Nut]

23 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Do you think Wilson is a future Manning or Elway?

Sweet two all time greats.  What an argument 

BTW Elway,sucked and was benched in his rookie season.  Completed 47% of his passes with fewer TDS & more INTs. With all of 1600 yards. Maybe Zach can become a HOF QB too?  

[UntouchableCrew]

4 minutes ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

Yeah but to be fair, the Jets were missing players as well for that game. Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, and Crowder were all out. That's a big deal when you have a rookie QB.

Sure.

I mean, I thought Zach played great. Best game of his career pretty easily all things considered. I honestly only bring up the Bucs Covid stuff because people keep referencing who we had missing without pointing out they were shorthanded too.

It's not even a big deal I'm just fairly baffled there are good posters who think Wilson had a better rookie year than Darnold. I don't really even see how it's close.

[ScarletKnight89]

2 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Sure.

I mean, I thought Zach played great. Best game of his career pretty easily all things considered. I honestly only bring up the Bucs Covid stuff because people keep referencing who we had missing without pointing out they were shorthanded too.

It's not even a big deal I'm just fairly baffled there are good posters who think Wilson had a better rookie year than Darnold. I don't really even see how it's close.

Agreed. Darnold's rookie year gave me more hope as a fan going forward. He had some big games against Indy, Houston, Buffalo, and Green Bay. And 3 of those games came in the final 4 games of the season. I was a lot more optimistic about Darnold after year 1 than I am right now about Zach Wilson. 

I like Zach, but Darnold had the better rookie year. It's not really that close. 

[UntouchableCrew]

1 minute ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

Agreed. Darnold's rookie year gave me more hope as a fan going forward. He had some big games against Indy, Houston, Buffalo, and Green Bay. And 3 of those games came in the final 4 games of the season. I was a lot more optimistic about Darnold after year 1 than I am right now about Zach Wilson. 

I like Zach, but Darnold had the better rookie year. It's not really that close. 

That's exactly how I feel.

Darnold had an "up and down" stereotypical rookie year where the highs were high and the lows were low. But he finished strong and I saw enough flashes that I was hopeful for the future.

Wilson was bad enough this year that about 75% of the way through the season I thought he might go down as one of the biggest busts of all time. He looked like a guy completely out of his depth who just had no business as an NFL QB. He improved after that and had three of his better games of the season down the stretch (Philly, Jax, TB) but I'm still much more worried about him after one year than Darnold.

[Jet Nut]

7 minutes ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

Agreed. Darnold's rookie year gave me more hope as a fan going forward. He had some big games against Indy, Houston, Buffalo, and Green Bay. And 3 of those games came in the final 4 games of the season. I was a lot more optimistic about Darnold after year 1 than I am right now about Zach Wilson. 

I like Zach, but Darnold had the better rookie year. It's not really that close. 

And the talent level between the teams wasn’t close.

[FidelioJet]

22 minutes ago, ScarletKnight89 said:

Yeah but to be fair, the Jets were missing players as well for that game. Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, and Crowder were all out. That's a big deal when you have a rookie QB.

Only the opposing team missing players matters.  

I thought we all knew that.

[doitny]

32 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

That's how many starts the Cardinals gave Josh Rosen on a bad team before giving up on him.  Were they insane for doing so?  Because they don't seem to regret it much, and Rosen hasn't "stuck it to them" at his other destinations.

Wilson didn't out-produce Rosen by all that much, either.

problem is there isn't a clear cut #1 QB like Murray. might as well give him another year.

or we can really waste this opportunity more than we already have. 5 top 1st rd picks in 3 years and we come away with 2 OL, 2 QBs and just one other player. and if some people get there way it would be 3 OL. 

how the hell are we suppose to get better if we waste 5 picks on 2 positions.

[Hex]

35 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

That's how many starts the Cardinals gave Josh Rosen on a bad team before giving up on him.  Were they insane for doing so?  Because they don't seem to regret it much, and Rosen hasn't "stuck it to them" at his other destinations.

Wilson didn't out-produce Rosen by all that much, either.

Rosen is like the only example of a team giving up on a QB who was drafted top 10 after 13 starts. Sure, he sucked. But the real reason why he was booted was a combination of him sucking on and off the field.

Nobody on the Cardinals liked Josh Rosen. They got rid of him because he didn't produce on the field, and he was a total D-bag.

[Lith]

1 hour ago, Scott Dierking said:

Did you just invent a stat there? NFL counts sacks against a qb' and teams rushing yards.

Pretty sure that is just college.  I think NFL offsets sack yardage against passing total.

[ScarletKnight89]

10 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

And the talent level between the teams wasn’t close.

The biggest thing Darnold had going for him that Zach Wilson did not was basically reliability when it came to starters. Darnold did not have great weapons. But Robby Anderson and Chris Herndon were healthy almost every week. So Darnold for the most part, was throwing to the same guys. 

It feels weird talking about Chris Herndon as a reliable player, but he was so good as a rookie and then fell apart completely. 

It sucks Zach got off to such a crappy start in the NFL (minus the Titans game) because that was when most of the team was healthy. When Zach's play started to improve after he came back from injury, that was when the Jets skill players started dropping one after the other.

[Hex]

2 minutes ago, Lith said:

Pretty sure that is just college.  I think NFL offsets sack yardage against passing total.

Honestly what they should do is just count it against the total yardage and have a 3rd category called 'sack yardage'

[Warfish]

6 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Statistically very unlikely, but a lot of QBs have made big improvements from year 1 to year 2

(I.e. he doesn’t have to be a HOFer) 

Agreed.  

2 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

Sweet two all time greats.  What an argument 

Sorry, I don't believe I was making an argument. 

[Jet Nut]

22 minutes ago, Warfish said:

Sorry, I don't believe I was making an argument. 

I didn’t mean it that way, my bad should have said comparison. 

[Jetsfan80]

39 minutes ago, Hex said:

Rosen is like the only example of a team giving up on a QB who was drafted top 10 after 13 starts. Sure, he sucked. But the real reason why he was booted was a combination of him sucking on and off the field.

Nobody on the Cardinals liked Josh Rosen. They got rid of him because he didn't produce on the field, and he was a total D-bag.

OK, but if he produced, no one would want him off the team for being a D-Bag.  I'm tired of QB's getting 2nd and 3rd chances from fans (and I assume some coaches) because they're "nice kids".  They get paid millions upon millions to produce on  the field.  Not be good guys. 

And quite a few of the best QB's in the league, past and present, are total d*cks, anyways.  See:  Brady, Rodgers, Favre, and Rivers, among others.  Peyton could be a real a$$hole too.  I've also heard over the years that Brees and Stafford aren't exactly the best guys.  

[Warfish]

3 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

I didn’t mean it that way, my bad should have said comparison. 

But it wasn't my comparison. 

Quote

slimjasi wrote: 

Some notable examples of big year 2 leaps: Peyton Manning, John Elway, Carson Palmer. It can also happen in year 3 for sure (e.g. Allen, Drew Brees). 

I didn't raise these HOF guys, Slim did.  As examples of how QB's can make big leaps in year 2.

So given he gave those examples, I asked if he thought Wilson was like these guys Slim referenced (i.e. was he similar enough to also make a big leap).

I'm not sure the issue here, honestly. 

[Jetsfan80]

43 minutes ago, doitny said:

problem is there isn't a clear cut #1 QB like Murray. might as well give him another year.

or we can really waste this opportunity more than we already have. 5 top 1st rd picks in 3 years and we come away with 2 OL, 2 QBs and just one other player. and if some people get there way it would be 3 OL. 

how the hell are we suppose to get better if we waste 5 picks on 2 positions.

I'm cool with passing on the QB's in this draft, but we do really need to add a veteran who can legitimately compete for the job.  Jameis Winston, Trubisky, Tyrod Taylor, Fitzpatrick and Teddy Bridgewater are all scheduled to be FA's this offseason.  And I imagine Gardner Minshew could be acquired fairly cheaply via trade if none of those options are "good enough".

[Jetsfan80]

1 hour ago, UntouchableCrew said:

Sure.

I mean, I thought Zach played great. Best game of his career pretty easily all things considered. I honestly only bring up the Bucs Covid stuff because people keep referencing who we had missing without pointing out they were shorthanded too.

It's not even a big deal I'm just fairly baffled there are good posters who think Wilson had a better rookie year than Darnold. I don't really even see how it's close.

 

58 minutes ago, UntouchableCrew said:

That's exactly how I feel.

Darnold had an "up and down" stereotypical rookie year where the highs were high and the lows were low. But he finished strong and I saw enough flashes that I was hopeful for the future.

Wilson was bad enough this year that about 75% of the way through the season I thought he might go down as one of the biggest busts of all time. He looked like a guy completely out of his depth who just had no business as an NFL QB. He improved after that and had three of his better games of the season down the stretch (Philly, Jax, TB) but I'm still much more worried about him after one year than Darnold.

 

All fair.  And if you've read my posts at all this year you would know I am NOT optimistic about Wilson, lol.

I think the big reason I think Wilson > Darnold as rookies is Darnold played a very soft schedule (if it wasn't the # 32 SOS that year it was close, and we always seemed to face teams missing key pieces), while the 2021 Jets' schedule was closer to the middle of the pack.  

But ultimately we're just splitting hairs.  The mere fact that we're having this discussion is the most concerning part of it.  Wilson needed to have a much better rookie season than Darnold, not a weaker season or one that was slightly better.