Combine Rant and Combine Thoughts

[kdels62]

A Combine Rant

What happened to the combine? As the draft and the predraft process grow in popularity the combine has evolved into a made for TV special. Up until now that was fine with me but this year it was a disaster. The staggered format of the workouts gave way to super long days that saw way too many opt outs. The TV product itself was super mediocre as the commentators refused to against narratives and provide any actual insight into how front offices might weight the numbers. In the end the NFL and the NFL Network have turned the combine into an event for the casual fan and I believe that teams will begin to devalue the combine more and more until its basically the Pro Bowl.

Combine Thoughts

1) Can we stop using RAS at this point of the process? So many players are being touted for their RAS scores without running 3 cones or short shuttles. 

2) Hutchinson's numbers don't make sense. Hutchinson's physical stature is not exceptional but lets put that aside. Hutchinson showed up putting up mediocre at best explosion numbers but he excelled in flexibility testing. This does not match up with Hutchinson's tape. Teams at the top of the draft are going to have to figure out what this means and figure out if Hutchinson was always good at bending the corner but never had to use it. *Side Note* Some phony twitter scout took a grainy video of Hutchinson running his 3 cone to claim that it was evidence that Hutchinson was not flexible, when the actual times came out he backtracked.** 

3) Jermaine Johnson's weird combine. So no one is talking about this so here I am asking the good questions. Jermaine Johnson had very good explosion, but he didn't just avoid the 3-cone and short shuttle but he avoided the EDGE group entirely, including the drills that are designed to show off bend and pass rush movement. It's possible that Johnson is being told he can be a 3-4 LB and he's showing off that skill set or his training was so focused on straightline speed that his flexibility was not at its peak level. 

4) So many incomplete profiles at a position where measurables matter.  I mentioned this before but guys like Karlaftis, Dominique Robinson and David Ojabo left incomplete pictures and in the case of Ojabo a negatively leaning incomplete picture. Karlaftis had a good 20 yard dash and has most of a good profile but we just can't know. I'm starting to believe that this pass rusher class is being overrated. 

5) The running backs did good (enough) work. Near the top of the athleticism chart was Jets senior bowl roster guy Rachaad White. Watch for him in rounds 4-5. 

6) WRs that dropped. Jahan Dotson tested poorly. So did David Bell and Wan'dale Robinson. I don't see Dotson falling too far but the other two might have become 4 round or later after thoughts. FWIW I liked Jauan Jennings even after his bad testing and the 49ers got a steal in the 7th round when they took him. I'd gladly let Bell tumble to us. 

7) WRs that climbed. 3 Senior Bowl dudes, 2 of which played on the Jets team announced themselves to the world. Christian Watson has traits on traits and might end up going in round 1. Bo Melton was good at the Senior Bowl but no one talked about him for some reason, but he's from Rutgers and I'm biased. Calvin Austin was not of the Jets team but he was awesome at the SB and awesome at the combine. He is small but he's explosive and quick and fast. 

8 ) Zyon McCollum (CB from Sam Houston State)  has short(ish) arms but holy crap his testing was off the charts. He's a player that should have received attention from the commentary crew at the draft. 

9) The Kyle Hamilton problem is that people are pretending that they are seeing rare traits. This doesn't mean that Kyle Hamilton sucks. He's good. He's big and relatively athletic to his size, but he's not relatively athletic to his position. 

 

And this here is the problem. That throw is late and weak and obvious but it doesn't happen in the NFL.  Ignoring the lack of top end speed is bad evaluation. The draft machine and PR team needs to look like they weren't way off for the past year so they'll cover their mistakes until the next cycle when people forget who said what and about who. 

10) Safeties rising. Dax Hill had a weird profile with super average explosion but his fluidity and speed was very good. Lewis Cine is slotting himself comfortably into Safety 2. Nick Cross a freak and I'd draft him in round 4. 

11) Safeties Falling. I've called Jaquan Brisker a more athletic Jamal Adams and it turns out he is a "slightly" more athletic Jamal Adams. When Jalen Pitre did run drills he was good not great but he avoided the 40 and that could mean that he expects to run over 4.6 and thats scary. I'd still draft him but I'd be weary if he doesn't run at his pro day. 

12)  Ickey Ekwonu tested so great? He didn't actually. His testing at 310 was not up to par with similar top of the draft prospects like Andrew Thomas, or even the much heavier Penei Sewell. His 4.73 yard shuttle was below the 50th percentile. His vertical jump and broad showed a lack of explosion. He skated through with a very mediocre combine. 

13) OL Fallers. Kenyon Green just tested himself into round 2. Nick Petit-Frere is in freefall and so is Darian Kinnard. Might create value. Tyler Linderbaum is small. I love the player but he might not be cut out for greatness at the next level. 

14) OL Risers. Mostly Jets Senior Bowl Guys. Bernhard Raimann showed out. As did Cole Strange and Matt Waletzko. The big riser tho was Abraham Lucas. I watched his tape prior to last draft season before he announced he was gonna stay in school and I had him as a 4th rounder. This year I watched him a little and thought he was the same guy. His athleticism can elevate him though and he's worth a flier especially if we re-sign Morgan Moses. 

15) Devin Lloyd had a bad combine? That's cap. He did not have a great combine but in the end he's in the range for exceptional LBs while also having elite size. The upside to Lloyd is that he's had snaps as an edge player as well as an off-ball guy. He's in that Micah Parson's mold. 

16) LB is the position we seem to imagine EDGE is. The pool of talent is huge and it is athletic. So athletic that Devin Lloyd suffered from proximity to a bunch of less accomplished, high potential peers. 

17) Wyatt, Davis, Winfrey, and Jones. These are beasts that will all be gone by 35. I expect the Jets take whichever of those 4 is still on the board at that point. They're the most athletic and the best players at their positions. Also Demarvin Leal... what a drop. 

18) Nothing Else... seriously you read all that? 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

Great post. I plugged in the data thus far into the waldo numbers, albeit incomplete to your point, and the edge class looks average at best from an overall explosion standpoint. Ojabo was surprisingly high risk in both categories. 

Leo Chenal and zyon mccollum are on my radar now. Chenal was surprisingly very productive and tested well and Zyon was the actual unicorn of the draft athletically along with jordan davis. 

Have to sit through pro days to piece full drills. But yeah, the NFL basically is killing the combine and it sucks. 
 

 

[LionelRichie]

great rant.   I could end eating a lot of crow but I wasn't that impressed with Hutch in the limited time I watched him this year.   

[JohnnyLV]

JMO my opinion but I think that there are a lot of good to very good EDGE types. And they are probably all mid first to 2nd round guys but the entire group is being elevated to the point that these guys and maybe all of them will be overdrafted and underperformers. If I am considering Hutchinson I now have to go back and look at every snap and try and figure out how much of Hutchinson's success influenced by having Ojabo on the other side and whether or not he is worthy of the Top 5 pick. I don't touch EDGE until round 2.

Completely agree on the TV thing. It was sort of arduous to watch. IMO what they need to do is to separate the workouts and the measurables. Do the workouts first, and then at the end do a day or 2 of just the dash and lifting, etc... It would actually be better for the NFL and some players because the evaluation of the drills would not be influenced by recency BIAS off of their 40 time.

Rant:  Change the way hands are measured. The way it is done is idiotic.  It essentially measures the size of your palm. I have what they call "Russian Hands" in the piano world, which is a very wide palm with short fingers. I measure 10.25" they way they measure hands. I can easily do an 11th on the piano but I cannot hold a football to save my life. I realize it is "historical" but it is completely useless.

 

 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

Miami Ohio had their pro day yesterday and no one reported on what Dominique Robinson's shuttle numbers just that he ran them. So dumb that this is a thing.

[kdels62]

21 minutes ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

Miami Ohio had their pro day yesterday and no one reported on what Dominique Robinson's shuttle numbers just that he ran them. So dumb that this is a thing.

The Jets were there which makes sense because they coached both Robinson and Weatherford. Curious to see numbers for those two. 

[TheClashFan]

By far the best move for the Jets would be to trade back from #4, but there simply may not be a reasonable offer for them to do so.

Earlier, the only OL I thought the Jets should consider was Linderbaum at 10, if they really thought he was special.  Now, they probably shouldn't draft any OL with 4 or 10.  Wait till the 2nd round for one and another in the 4th.  There should be lots of good value in the 2nd round. 

They do need a good, young swing OT, but if Linderbaum falls to them in the 2nd round, take him (unless they sign a new C in free agency).

 

 

 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

Gonna piggyback on this thread, but wanted to update a couple more pro day results.

There have been some updates to the process and I'm unsure how well it has aged over time, but wanted to keep track of the Waldo numbers for edge.

Low Risk 1: Twitch score 1.1 or lower:

Example: name (exp power, twitch)  

Aidan Hutchinson (0.93, 0.93)

Travon Walker (1.01, 1.1)

*Leo Chenal - played 3-4 ILB but killed it with the agility drills on top of the explosion numbers. (1.04, 0.74) At 250lbs, I just want to point out how ridiculous he's been.

 

Low Risk 2: Explosive power 1.05 or higher

Josh Paschal (1.06, n/a)

 

Mid-Low Risk: (Twitch < 1.1, but 3 cone > 7 seconds)

Nik Bonitto (0.97, 1.04)

Dominique Robinson (1.01, 0.92)

 

High Risk:  Twitch > 1.2

David Ojabo (0.93, 1.21)

Amare Barno (0.97, 1.31)

Jeremiah Moon (1.03, 1.29)

[kdels62]

1 hour ago, Jets Voice of Reason said:

Gonna piggyback on this thread, but wanted to update a couple more pro day results.

There have been some updates to the process and I'm unsure how well it has aged over time, but wanted to keep track of the Waldo numbers for edge.

Low Risk 1: Twitch score 1.1 or lower:

Example: name (exp power, twitch)  

Aidan Hutchinson (0.93, 0.93)

Travon Walker (1.01, 1.1)

*Leo Chenal - played 3-4 ILB but killed it with the agility drills on top of the explosion numbers. (1.04, 0.74) At 250lbs, I just want to point out how ridiculous he's been.

 

Low Risk 2: Explosive power 1.05 or higher

Josh Paschal (1.06, n/a)

 

Mid-Low Risk: (Twitch < 1.1, but 3 cone > 7 seconds)

Nik Bonitto (0.97, 1.04)

Dominique Robinson (1.01, 0.92)

 

High Risk:  Twitch > 1.2

David Ojabo (0.93, 1.21)

Amare Barno (0.97, 1.31)

Jeremiah Moon (1.03, 1.29)

Awesome

The Ojabo thing is really bothering me. I thought he was a safe bet to test well. 

[Jets Voice of Reason]

34 minutes ago, kdels62 said:

Awesome

The Ojabo thing is really bothering me. I thought he was a safe bet to test well. 

I'm trying to look back historically at how the formula has held up over time as a forecasting tool, but it's time consuming and I'm not certain I'll find something of value or have the endurance to put a ton of time into it. What I will say though is that at quick glance the high risk category still appears fairly risky. Having sub 7 3-cone drills is pretty common for the better pass rushers and it feels like raw counting numbers like college Sacks and TFLs aren't really that reliable as a predictor of success when I charted some of the classes 5 or 6 years ago.

Ojabo is concerning. I thought he would test very well (was honestly hoping he'd make taking him at 4 or 10 an easy decision) and now I don't know what to feel as he tested poorly. Overall, the edge class has been pretty weak overall from an explosion standpoint in comparison to others. Pretty disappointing.

[GangGreen Machine]

On 3/8/2022 at 2:32 PM, kdels62 said:

A Combine Rant

What happened to the combine? As the draft and the predraft process grow in popularity the combine has evolved into a made for TV special. Up until now that was fine with me but this year it was a disaster. The staggered format of the workouts gave way to super long days that saw way too many opt outs. The TV product itself was super mediocre as the commentators refused to against narratives and provide any actual insight into how front offices might weight the numbers. In the end the NFL and the NFL Network have turned the combine into an event for the casual fan and I believe that teams will begin to devalue the combine more and more until its basically the Pro Bowl.

Combine Thoughts

1) Can we stop using RAS at this point of the process? So many players are being touted for their RAS scores without running 3 cones or short shuttles. 

2) Hutchinson's numbers don't make sense. Hutchinson's physical stature is not exceptional but lets put that aside. Hutchinson showed up putting up mediocre at best explosion numbers but he excelled in flexibility testing. This does not match up with Hutchinson's tape. Teams at the top of the draft are going to have to figure out what this means and figure out if Hutchinson was always good at bending the corner but never had to use it. *Side Note* Some phony twitter scout took a grainy video of Hutchinson running his 3 cone to claim that it was evidence that Hutchinson was not flexible, when the actual times came out he backtracked.** 

3) Jermaine Johnson's weird combine. So no one is talking about this so here I am asking the good questions. Jermaine Johnson had very good explosion, but he didn't just avoid the 3-cone and short shuttle but he avoided the EDGE group entirely, including the drills that are designed to show off bend and pass rush movement. It's possible that Johnson is being told he can be a 3-4 LB and he's showing off that skill set or his training was so focused on straightline speed that his flexibility was not at its peak level. 

4) So many incomplete profiles at a position where measurables matter.  I mentioned this before but guys like Karlaftis, Dominique Robinson and David Ojabo left incomplete pictures and in the case of Ojabo a negatively leaning incomplete picture. Karlaftis had a good 20 yard dash and has most of a good profile but we just can't know. I'm starting to believe that this pass rusher class is being overrated. 

5) The running backs did good (enough) work. Near the top of the athleticism chart was Jets senior bowl roster guy Rachaad White. Watch for him in rounds 4-5. 

6) WRs that dropped. Jahan Dotson tested poorly. So did David Bell and Wan'dale Robinson. I don't see Dotson falling too far but the other two might have become 4 round or later after thoughts. FWIW I liked Jauan Jennings even after his bad testing and the 49ers got a steal in the 7th round when they took him. I'd gladly let Bell tumble to us. 

7) WRs that climbed. 3 Senior Bowl dudes, 2 of which played on the Jets team announced themselves to the world. Christian Watson has traits on traits and might end up going in round 1. Bo Melton was good at the Senior Bowl but no one talked about him for some reason, but he's from Rutgers and I'm biased. Calvin Austin was not of the Jets team but he was awesome at the SB and awesome at the combine. He is small but he's explosive and quick and fast. 

8 ) Zyon McCollum (CB from Sam Houston State)  has short(ish) arms but holy crap his testing was off the charts. He's a player that should have received attention from the commentary crew at the draft. 

9) The Kyle Hamilton problem is that people are pretending that they are seeing rare traits. This doesn't mean that Kyle Hamilton sucks. He's good. He's big and relatively athletic to his size, but he's not relatively athletic to his position. 

 

And this here is the problem. That throw is late and weak and obvious but it doesn't happen in the NFL.  Ignoring the lack of top end speed is bad evaluation. The draft machine and PR team needs to look like they weren't way off for the past year so they'll cover their mistakes until the next cycle when people forget who said what and about who. 

10) Safeties rising. Dax Hill had a weird profile with super average explosion but his fluidity and speed was very good. Lewis Cine is slotting himself comfortably into Safety 2. Nick Cross a freak and I'd draft him in round 4. 

11) Safeties Falling. I've called Jaquan Brisker a more athletic Jamal Adams and it turns out he is a "slightly" more athletic Jamal Adams. When Jalen Pitre did run drills he was good not great but he avoided the 40 and that could mean that he expects to run over 4.6 and thats scary. I'd still draft him but I'd be weary if he doesn't run at his pro day. 

12)  Ickey Ekwonu tested so great? He didn't actually. His testing at 310 was not up to par with similar top of the draft prospects like Andrew Thomas, or even the much heavier Penei Sewell. His 4.73 yard shuttle was below the 50th percentile. His vertical jump and broad showed a lack of explosion. He skated through with a very mediocre combine. 

13) OL Fallers. Kenyon Green just tested himself into round 2. Nick Petit-Frere is in freefall and so is Darian Kinnard. Might create value. Tyler Linderbaum is small. I love the player but he might not be cut out for greatness at the next level. 

14) OL Risers. Mostly Jets Senior Bowl Guys. Bernhard Raimann showed out. As did Cole Strange and Matt Waletzko. The big riser tho was Abraham Lucas. I watched his tape prior to last draft season before he announced he was gonna stay in school and I had him as a 4th rounder. This year I watched him a little and thought he was the same guy. His athleticism can elevate him though and he's worth a flier especially if we re-sign Morgan Moses. 

15) Devin Lloyd had a bad combine? That's cap. He did not have a great combine but in the end he's in the range for exceptional LBs while also having elite size. The upside to Lloyd is that he's had snaps as an edge player as well as an off-ball guy. He's in that Micah Parson's mold. 

16) LB is the position we seem to imagine EDGE is. The pool of talent is huge and it is athletic. So athletic that Devin Lloyd suffered from proximity to a bunch of less accomplished, high potential peers. 

17) Wyatt, Davis, Winfrey, and Jones. These are beasts that will all be gone by 35. I expect the Jets take whichever of those 4 is still on the board at that point. They're the most athletic and the best players at their positions. Also Demarvin Leal... what a drop. 

18) Nothing Else... seriously you read all that? 

Great thoughts. I too thought it was weird that Jermaine Johnson went with the LB's. Especially since I thought he transferred to FSU to play 4-3 DE?

I was very impressed with Travon Walker and might put him ahead of JJ for pick #4 given if the Jets think he can fit their system. Love the arm length at over 35" as opposed to Hutch (32") who seems to have t rex arms as a 6'7" guy.

I also wouldn't mind getting your guy Sauce at 10 if he slipped there, probably a pipe dream though. 

[Beerfish]

I'll get eviscerated for this but I'm going to say it anyway.

Travon Walker is being so overrated these days it is getting ridiculous.

Will he rocket up the boards and be picked early?  Probably.

I keep seeing all the justification why I should totally ignore pass rushing production and 'what position does he play exact;y?' because he tested well.

Different player but is reminding me of the Myles Jack hype.

[GangGreen Machine]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

I'll get eviscerated for this but I'm going to say it anyway.

Travon Walker is being so overrated these days it is getting ridiculous.

Will he rocket up the boards and be picked early?  Probably.

I keep seeing all the justification why I should totally ignore pass rushing production and 'what position does he play exact;y?' because he tested well.

Different player but is reminding me of the Myles Jack hype.

Crummy thing is, we can poke holes in all of these prospects. Bottom line is we need an edge. I hope JD gets a guy who can help out. Not expecting any perennial pro bowlers in the top 10. I’d love to trade out of the first at 4 or 10 and get a future 2023 first. I don’t want to trade back in this years draft. 

[derp]

1 hour ago, Beerfish said:

I'll get eviscerated for this but I'm going to say it anyway.

Travon Walker is being so overrated these days it is getting ridiculous.

Will he rocket up the boards and be picked early?  Probably.

I keep seeing all the justification why I should totally ignore pass rushing production and 'what position does he play exact;y?' because he tested well.

Different player but is reminding me of the Myles Jack hype.

I don’t think anybody’s saying you ignore pass rush production for Walker. If Walker had double digit sack production he’s probably the top pick in the draft, right? 

That’s his hole, all the other guys have holes too. He had a better junior year than the seniors who are the only guys in the class who actually have double digit production. Plus all the loaded DL, played defensive tackle too stuff. Doesn’t mean you ignore it but it’s better than him getting a lot of edge snaps and not doing anything with it.

Definitely risky in terms of pass rush production, but probably a high floor in terms of actually adding some degree of value to the team. Teams will have to figure out where they value that.

[Beerfish]

6 minutes ago, derp said:

I don’t think anybody’s saying you ignore pass rush production for Walker. If Walker had double digit sack production he’s probably the top pick in the draft, right? 

That’s his hole, all the other guys have holes too. He had a better junior year than the seniors who are the only guys in the class who actually have double digit production. Plus all the loaded DL, played defensive tackle too stuff. Doesn’t mean you ignore it but it’s better than him getting a lot of edge snaps and not doing anything with it.

Definitely risky in terms of pass rush production, but probably a high floor in terms of actually adding some degree of value to the team. Teams will have to figure out where they value that.

Yes he would be #1 but he is now being flaunted as #4 by a lot of people will not a lot of production.

We need a pass rusher and a sack master.  He may be the best guy we can come up with but if we are going to go pass rusher no matter what and hutchinson is gone I'd favor Johnson ahead of Walker.

[GangGreen Machine]

17 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Yes he would be #1 but he is now being flaunted as #4 by a lot of people will not a lot of production.

We need a pass rusher and a sack master.  He may be the best guy we can come up with but if we are going to go pass rusher no matter what and hutchinson is gone I'd favor Johnson ahead of Walker.

Well good thing is Hutch, Walker, Johnson, and Kayvon are all upgrades from Shaq, Zuniga, and Huff. We should have our pick of a couple at 4. 

[derp]

20 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

Yes he would be #1 but he is now being flaunted as #4 by a lot of people will not a lot of production.

We need a pass rusher and a sack master.  He may be the best guy we can come up with but if we are going to go pass rusher no matter what and hutchinson is gone I'd favor Johnson ahead of Walker.

I think on one hand Johnson produced more and on the other hand their production this year isn’t apples to apples. When Johnson was Walker’s age, and playing at Georgia, he had 2.5 sacks.

That’s not to say that Walker will definitively be better, but Johnson doesn’t exactly have a great development trajectory. If Walker’s in college two more years I’d guess his production continues to scale upwards.

[Dinamite]

2 hours ago, Beerfish said:

I'll get eviscerated for this but I'm going to say it anyway.

Travon Walker is being so overrated these days it is getting ridiculous.

Will he rocket up the boards and be picked early?  Probably.

I keep seeing all the justification why I should totally ignore pass rushing production and 'what position does he play exact;y?' because he tested well.

Different player but is reminding me of the Myles Jack hype.

I can see a team hoping he is the next Richard Seymour.   Maybe Houston picks him.

[Dinamite]

On 3/8/2022 at 5:32 PM, kdels62 said:

A Combine Rant

What happened to the combine? As the draft and the predraft process grow in popularity the combine has evolved into a made for TV special. Up until now that was fine with me but this year it was a disaster. The staggered format of the workouts gave way to super long days that saw way too many opt outs. The TV product itself was super mediocre as the commentators refused to against narratives and provide any actual insight into how front offices might weight the numbers. In the end the NFL and the NFL Network have turned the combine into an event for the casual fan and I believe that teams will begin to devalue the combine more and more until its basically the Pro Bowl.

Combine Thoughts

1) Can we stop using RAS at this point of the process? So many players are being touted for their RAS scores without running 3 cones or short shuttles. 

2) Hutchinson's numbers don't make sense. Hutchinson's physical stature is not exceptional but lets put that aside. Hutchinson showed up putting up mediocre at best explosion numbers but he excelled in flexibility testing. This does not match up with Hutchinson's tape. Teams at the top of the draft are going to have to figure out what this means and figure out if Hutchinson was always good at bending the corner but never had to use it. *Side Note* Some phony twitter scout took a grainy video of Hutchinson running his 3 cone to claim that it was evidence that Hutchinson was not flexible, when the actual times came out he backtracked.** 

3) Jermaine Johnson's weird combine. So no one is talking about this so here I am asking the good questions. Jermaine Johnson had very good explosion, but he didn't just avoid the 3-cone and short shuttle but he avoided the EDGE group entirely, including the drills that are designed to show off bend and pass rush movement. It's possible that Johnson is being told he can be a 3-4 LB and he's showing off that skill set or his training was so focused on straightline speed that his flexibility was not at its peak level. 

4) So many incomplete profiles at a position where measurables matter.  I mentioned this before but guys like Karlaftis, Dominique Robinson and David Ojabo left incomplete pictures and in the case of Ojabo a negatively leaning incomplete picture. Karlaftis had a good 20 yard dash and has most of a good profile but we just can't know. I'm starting to believe that this pass rusher class is being overrated. 

5) The running backs did good (enough) work. Near the top of the athleticism chart was Jets senior bowl roster guy Rachaad White. Watch for him in rounds 4-5. 

6) WRs that dropped. Jahan Dotson tested poorly. So did David Bell and Wan'dale Robinson. I don't see Dotson falling too far but the other two might have become 4 round or later after thoughts. FWIW I liked Jauan Jennings even after his bad testing and the 49ers got a steal in the 7th round when they took him. I'd gladly let Bell tumble to us. 

7) WRs that climbed. 3 Senior Bowl dudes, 2 of which played on the Jets team announced themselves to the world. Christian Watson has traits on traits and might end up going in round 1. Bo Melton was good at the Senior Bowl but no one talked about him for some reason, but he's from Rutgers and I'm biased. Calvin Austin was not of the Jets team but he was awesome at the SB and awesome at the combine. He is small but he's explosive and quick and fast. 

8 ) Zyon McCollum (CB from Sam Houston State)  has short(ish) arms but holy crap his testing was off the charts. He's a player that should have received attention from the commentary crew at the draft. 

9) The Kyle Hamilton problem is that people are pretending that they are seeing rare traits. This doesn't mean that Kyle Hamilton sucks. He's good. He's big and relatively athletic to his size, but he's not relatively athletic to his position. 

 

And this here is the problem. That throw is late and weak and obvious but it doesn't happen in the NFL.  Ignoring the lack of top end speed is bad evaluation. The draft machine and PR team needs to look like they weren't way off for the past year so they'll cover their mistakes until the next cycle when people forget who said what and about who. 

10) Safeties rising. Dax Hill had a weird profile with super average explosion but his fluidity and speed was very good. Lewis Cine is slotting himself comfortably into Safety 2. Nick Cross a freak and I'd draft him in round 4. 

11) Safeties Falling. I've called Jaquan Brisker a more athletic Jamal Adams and it turns out he is a "slightly" more athletic Jamal Adams. When Jalen Pitre did run drills he was good not great but he avoided the 40 and that could mean that he expects to run over 4.6 and thats scary. I'd still draft him but I'd be weary if he doesn't run at his pro day. 

12)  Ickey Ekwonu tested so great? He didn't actually. His testing at 310 was not up to par with similar top of the draft prospects like Andrew Thomas, or even the much heavier Penei Sewell. His 4.73 yard shuttle was below the 50th percentile. His vertical jump and broad showed a lack of explosion. He skated through with a very mediocre combine. 

13) OL Fallers. Kenyon Green just tested himself into round 2. Nick Petit-Frere is in freefall and so is Darian Kinnard. Might create value. Tyler Linderbaum is small. I love the player but he might not be cut out for greatness at the next level. 

14) OL Risers. Mostly Jets Senior Bowl Guys. Bernhard Raimann showed out. As did Cole Strange and Matt Waletzko. The big riser tho was Abraham Lucas. I watched his tape prior to last draft season before he announced he was gonna stay in school and I had him as a 4th rounder. This year I watched him a little and thought he was the same guy. His athleticism can elevate him though and he's worth a flier especially if we re-sign Morgan Moses. 

15) Devin Lloyd had a bad combine? That's cap. He did not have a great combine but in the end he's in the range for exceptional LBs while also having elite size. The upside to Lloyd is that he's had snaps as an edge player as well as an off-ball guy. He's in that Micah Parson's mold. 

16) LB is the position we seem to imagine EDGE is. The pool of talent is huge and it is athletic. So athletic that Devin Lloyd suffered from proximity to a bunch of less accomplished, high potential peers. 

17) Wyatt, Davis, Winfrey, and Jones. These are beasts that will all be gone by 35. I expect the Jets take whichever of those 4 is still on the board at that point. They're the most athletic and the best players at their positions. Also Demarvin Leal... what a drop. 

18) Nothing Else... seriously you read all that? 

Excellent write up, thank you.   Given your observations that the class overall is being overhyped, and favorites such as IK didnt test as well, who do you favor at 4?  

[Paradis]

On 3/8/2022 at 2:32 PM, kdels62 said:

A Combine Rant

 

Thanks for sharing. And yes, I did seriously read all that. Good insight. I've been lost in work this calendar year, so this is useful feedback for me.

[TheMo]

On 3/9/2022 at 7:40 PM, Beerfish said:

I'll get eviscerated for this but I'm going to say it anyway.

Travon Walker is being so overrated these days it is getting ridiculous.

Will he rocket up the boards and be picked early?  Probably.

I keep seeing all the justification why I should totally ignore pass rushing production and 'what position does he play exact;y?' because he tested well.

Different player but is reminding me of the Myles Jack hype.

I was thinking Dion Jordan. Everyone was trying to pretend his coverage ability somehow made him awesome for a 3-4 OLB lol