GREENSMACKS Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 This guy predicts all of the compensatory selections every year... something very hard to do... He is extremely accurate... Something that could be used my mock-drafters who have mocks over 3 rounds... This takes a lot of time, and is extremely impressive to see someone do this... He explains the whole process and how certain teams' picks may change with the NFL http://mb3.scout.com/ftfydraftfrm1.showMessage?topicID=5810.topic AdamJT13 wrote: THIRD ROUND N.Y. Jets (LaMont Jordan, $5.51 million, 14 GP/14 GS) FOURTH ROUND Denver (Reggie Hayward, $5.0 million, 15/15) Pittsburgh (Kendrell Bell, $4.974 million, 16/14) Baltimore (Gary Baxter, $5.004 million, 5/5 IR) Pittsburgh (Plaxico Burress, $4.167 million, 16/15) Baltimore (Edgerton Hartwell, $4.375 million, 5/5 IR) FIFTH ROUND Philadelphia (Derrick Burgess, $3.491 million, 16/12, Pro Bowl) Green Bay (Marco Rivera, $3.80 million, 14/14) Pittsburgh (Oliver Ross, $3.50 million, 12/11) Tampa Bay (Dwight Smith, $3.04 million, 15/15) Tennessee (Andre Dyson, $3.501 million, 10/6) Baltimore (Casey Rabach, $2.825 million, 16/16) SIXTH ROUND Philadelphia (Jermane Mayberry, $3.009 million, 11/ New England (David Patten, $2.60 million, 9/7 IR) New England (Joe Andruzzi, $2.194 million, 13/13) Indianapolis (Rick DeMulling, $2.275 million, 14/5) SEVENTH ROUND Baltimore (Bennie Anderson, $1.706 million, 16/15) Tampa Bay (Chartric Darby, $1.0 million, 14/14) St. Louis (Tommy Polley, $800,000, 16/15) St. Louis (Matt Lehr, $710,000, 15/15) Tampa Bay (Keith Burns, $790,000, 15/1) Detroit (Stockar McDougle, $750,000, (8/2) Buffalo (net value; lost $9.49 million, 19/19, IR ; signed $3.409 million, 26/23) Seattle (net value; lost $12.167 million, 47/43; signed $7.001 million, 40/35) Washington (net value; lost $10.075 million, 24/21; signed $5.425 million, 25/23 IR) Houston (non-compensatory) New Orleans (non-compensatory) Green Bay (non-compensatory) San Francisco (non-compensatory) Oakland (non-compensatory) Tennessee (non-compensatory) New York Jets (non-compensatory) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stonehands Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 Where is the compensatory pick for McKenzie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 He doesn't think we'll get anything for McKenzie who signed a $35M contract with a $10M SB? There's a reason that the contract the player signed is incorporated in determining the comp picks: if the size of the contract was not a factor, we'd have re-signed him ourselves. Also I think we'll get a 4th for Jordan not a 3rd (though I'd be thrilled). I think a 3rd would be like if Seattle lost Shaun Alexander. (Don't think a team can get higher than a 3rd as a comp pick). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GREENSMACKS Posted March 17, 2006 Author Share Posted March 17, 2006 i am happy with a 3rd rounder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LionelRichie Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 Where is the compensatory pick for McKenzie? if this guy's predictions are accurate then the jets don't get a pick for mckenzie b/c they signed lance legree. this truly would be bradway's final kick in the nuts to this team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor99 Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 if this guy's predictions are accurate then the jets don't get a pick for mckenzie b/c they signed lance legree. this truly would be bradway's final kick in the nuts to this team. They don't play the same position. Doesn't a team lose a comp pick if they replace a lost player? Legree wouldn't factor into it. Unless you're confusing McKenzie with Ferguson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LionelRichie Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 They don't play the same position. Doesn't a team lose a comp pick if they replace a lost player? Legree wouldn't factor into it. Unless you're confusing McKenzie with Ferguson? according to the guy with the predictions there is a formula for "qualifying" players - the jets lost 4 and signed 3 - which is where he got the 1 pick from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RSJ Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 This further proves Bradway did not know what the f he was doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 if this guy's predictions are accurate then the jets don't get a pick for mckenzie b/c they signed lance legree. this truly would be bradway's final kick in the nuts to this team. That doesn't make sense. Acquiring a $1M/yr player who started zero games, while losing a $6M/yr player who started 14 games (and who paved the road so Tiki Barber could have a career year one year after he did the same with Martin) doesn't sound like a "wash" to me. So if Seattle lost Steve Hutchinson and Shaun Alexander, but signed Mike Cloud and Jeff Blake they'd get nothing? C'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mbn007 Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 That doesn't make sense. Acquiring a $1M/yr player who started zero games, while losing a $6M/yr player who started 14 games (and who paved the road so Tiki Barber could have a career year one year after he did the same with Martin) doesn't sound like a "wash" to me. So if Seattle lost Steve Hutchinson and Shaun Alexander, but signed Mike Cloud and Jeff Blake they'd get nothing? C'mon. I know that signing eligible "Comp Pick players" does lower your chances for a comp pick in return, but this is incorrect to say we are only getting 1 pick back. We will probably get nothing for Fergy, except the net pick in the 7th round. But Jordan and Kareem should both get us 4th rounders. I can't see a 3rd for Lamont. His salary is worth the 3rd, but it's not like he ran for 2000 yards or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LionelRichie Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 That doesn't make sense. Acquiring a $1M/yr player who started zero games, while losing a $6M/yr player who started 14 games (and who paved the road so Tiki Barber could have a career year one year after he did the same with Martin) doesn't sound like a "wash" to me. So if Seattle lost Steve Hutchinson and Shaun Alexander, but signed Mike Cloud and Jeff Blake they'd get nothing? C'mon. i am just telling you what this guy wrote in his article - he claims to be pretty accurate. the whole thing will be settled soon so we sill see. personally i think he may be off a little but then again i don't really follow the intricacies of comp picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stonehands Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 I don't have a website or follow these things closely, but I had a 4th for Jordan, a 5th for Kareem and a 7th for Ferguson. Let's see who is closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThunderbirdJet Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 This guy's history of predicting the comp picks says he knows what he's talking about. The worst qualifying player we signed was Barry freakin Gardner..... which most likely cost us a 4th round comp pick. If we hadn't signed him as the third qualifying player, we'de be getting another comp pick. Jordan was pretty productive, and this guy said he might only bring a 4th back, but he went with the 3rd officially. According to him, it's a close one to call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyCarl40 Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 The guy is wrong. I've seen more credible information than this where we could be landing a 3rd, a 4th and a 5th. I think it's all well and good that we get solid compensatory picks, but predicting them is a little futile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThunderbirdJet Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 The guy is wrong. I've seen more credible information than this where we could be landing a 3rd, a 4th and a 5th. I think it's all well and good that we get solid compensatory picks, but predicting them is a little futile. How do you know this guy isn't credible? Because you weren't aware of him before this? His rep preceeds him.... he happens to be very reliable. His reputation at JI and TGG is impeccable, based on several years of very accurate forecasting. It's simple..... how many qualifying players you lose vs. how many you sign. We lost 4, we signed 3.... do the math. ONE comp pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Straw Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 The guy is wrong. I've seen more credible information than this where we could be landing a 3rd, a 4th and a 5th. I think it's all well and good that we get solid compensatory picks, but predicting them is a little futile. You obviously don't know what you're talking about. The person who made these predictions has an extremely high success rate. He posts his predictions and is usually dead-on accurate. He doesn't just say "this is what I think the Jets will get" like most of us on this board. He has a formula that he uses which is very similar to that of the NFL - the NFL keeps that formula a secret, so there could be some subtle differences, but his solid track record shows he very good at what he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AFJF Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 I thought comp picks couldn't be higher than 4th rd. because I've never seen a 3rd but apparently a 3rd can be rewarded...how sweet would that be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mbn007 Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 I thought comp picks couldn't be higher than 4th rd. because I've never seen a 3rd but apparently a 3rd can be rewarded...how sweet would that be? I thought it could not be higher then a 3rd, but the 3rd is for the rare bird indeed, the superstar type. Perhaps an Edge James??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 I thought comp picks couldn't be higher than 4th rd. because I've never seen a 3rd but apparently a 3rd can be rewarded...how sweet would that be? Last year there were 37 picks in round three so there must have been five 3rd-round compensatory picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Straw Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 I believe the picks are awarded at the end of the third round, so for all intensive purposes, it's a 4th rounder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 I believe the picks are awarded at the end of the third round, so for all intensive purposes, it's a 4th rounder. intensive purposes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stonehands Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 intensive purposes? Sounds like a commerical: Trojan - For All Intensive Purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YJF Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 I will take whatever we can get in the compensatory process. If it's just a 3rd round pick. So be it, I'll take it. Jordan was highly productive last season. He had close to 1,600 yards of offense and double digit touchdowns. That should warrant a 3 or 4. I am a bit surprised that Kareem doesn't get The Jets anything back. But if it's just a 3 or 4. Works for me. Jets would have two 3's or 3 4's. In this draft or in any draft. I'll take as many picks as I can get. There is strength in numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyCarl40 Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 If you look at the players we lost compared witht he players gained, contracts, stats, games played and started etc, we should be getting more than a 3rd rounder. That is why he is wrong. Legree and Ferguson are a wash, because Ferguson did not play that much. Jordan is worth a 3rd, maybe a 4th if the consider Blalock playing sparingly in a few games. McKenzie by himself is worth a 4th or a 5th, and Barry Gardener doesn't offset that at all. If this guy is correct and contracts are the main factor then he is contradicting himself by giving us only a 3rd rounder. All I am saying is that it would be a joke if that is all we got and I'm sure we will get more, and therefore he is wrong. Just a little logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThunderbirdJet Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 If you look at the players we lost compared witht he players gained, contracts, stats, games played and started etc, we should be getting more than a 3rd rounder. That is why he is wrong. Legree and Ferguson are a wash, because Ferguson did not play that much. Jordan is worth a 3rd, maybe a 4th if the consider Blalock playing sparingly in a few games. McKenzie by himself is worth a 4th or a 5th, and Barry Gardener doesn't offset that at all. If this guy is correct and contracts are the main factor then he is contradicting himself by giving us only a 3rd rounder. All I am saying is that it would be a joke if that is all we got and I'm sure we will get more, and therefore he is wrong. Just a little logic. I don't mean to insult you, but you have no clue what you are talking about. This guy has done these calculations fo ryears.... talk about credibility, you have zero. Read, and learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrazyCarl40 Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 I don't mean to insult you, but you have no clue what you are talking about. This guy has done these calculations fo ryears.... talk about credibility, you have zero. Read, and learn. I'm glad he has done them for years. I may have zero credibility but if you look at our caliber of players lost vs. gained and the amount of contract, games played etc we should be getting more than a 3rd. You should be hoping he is wrong as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smizzy Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 They don't award comp picks higher than the 3rd rd. Id be thrilled to get a 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 They don't award comp picks higher than the 3rd rd. Id be thrilled to get a 3rd. Then how were there 37 picks in round 3 just last year? http://drafthistory.com/years/2005.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smizzy Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 Then how were there 37 picks in round 3 just last year? http://drafthistory.com/years/2005.html 33 96 Tennessee (Compensatory Selection) Jones, Brandon WR 6-1 208 Oklahoma 34 97 Denver (Compensatory Selection) Foxworth, Domonique CB 5-11 178 Maryland 35 98 Seattle (Compensatory Selection) Hill, Leroy OLB 6-1 224 Clemson 36 99 Kansas City (Compensatory Selection) Colquitt, Dustin P 6-2 211 Tennessee 37 100 New England (Compensatory Selection) Kaczur, Nick G 6-4 319 Toledo 38 101 Denver (Compensatory Selection) Clarett, Maurice RB 6-0 234 Ohio State Your right. they give them out more than I thought.I edited my post. But they don't go higher than 3rd rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MiamiJet Posted March 17, 2006 Share Posted March 17, 2006 33 96 Tennessee (Compensatory Selection) Jones, Brandon WR 6-1 208 Oklahoma 34 97 Denver (Compensatory Selection) Foxworth, Domonique CB 5-11 178 Maryland 35 98 Seattle (Compensatory Selection) Hill, Leroy OLB 6-1 224 Clemson 36 99 Kansas City (Compensatory Selection) Colquitt, Dustin P 6-2 211 Tennessee 37 100 New England (Compensatory Selection) Kaczur, Nick G 6-4 319 Toledo 38 101 Denver (Compensatory Selection) Clarett, Maurice RB 6-0 234 Ohio State Your right. they give them out more than I thought.I edited my post. But they don't go higher than 3rd rd. You're both right. A record amount of compensatory picks were awarded last season, including third round picks. That being said, I believe that last year was the first time in several years that a third rounder was awarded. Denver got TWO third round picks. Adam is a god when it comes to this stuff. His prediction rate runs at some unreal number of 90 something percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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