Aaron Rodgers to the Jets rumor: Merged

[derp]

21 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Ok so, in three weeks somebody is going to spend a top three pick on Anthony Richardson who, while obviously is a 10x better athlete than Zach hasn’t shown nearly the ability as a passer. Steve Pallazzollo makes this case all the time—if you’re picking in the top five and you don’t already have an elite QB, your best value comes from trying your hand at a reasonably talented quarterback because hitting on one elevates your franchise in a way that no other position or coach can. Practically, it’s a terrible idea to draft a QB high unless you have a rock solid conviction about a prospect, but from an analytics standpoint, it’s where you get your best return

I guess Pallazzollo is entitled to that opinion but the track record of teams doing that doesn’t bear that out as a good decision. When’s the last time it worked? What are the analytics that show it’s a good place to do it? He can say it but I don’t think he can defend it.

In recent history, franchise changing QB’s happen when teams fall into an elite guy the year there is one to take #1 or put a guy into a good situation and develop him.

[Mogglez]

[ptisme]

8 hours ago, Phillyjet said:

People are over-estimating the anxiety of Jet fans to get Rodgers.  We've been losing for more than a decade.  While we'd like to have him, we will have a collective shrug and sigh among most fans if we lose him.  I think a second this year and a conditional fourth in 2024 splits the difference, maybe rises as high as a second rounder if we win the AFC Championship.  But if GB doesn't get it's act together before the draft, they are left with the conditional fourth in 2024.

Make no mistake, the offer only gets worse three weeks from now.  This trade won't get to draft day.  It'll go down the week before once GB wakes up and realizes they are pinned.  There is no urgency for a deal until a week before the draft.  

You guys talk like this.  You've said how JD is going to rape Gute Gutekunst and what not...  And maybe he will.     But you know JD is a shrewd guy.  But you should know Gute is too.   What he did in his first draft trading down to the end of the first, securing a first rounder the next year and then moving back up to get Jaire Alexander (for a third) was a thing of beauty.  And last season Devonte Adams had a team he wanted to go to also and Gute got a first AND second for him.  This guy didn't just fall off the turnip truck.  The Jets hold great leverage here for all the stated reasons, including this years picks...  But Gute can hold some cards here too.  He could say if this doesn't get done by draft day we'll trade you Rodgers but you won't get him until the day before the regular season starts.   That would effectively ruin team chemistry for a team that clearly wants Rodgers working with these new players as soon as possible.  This is an epic stare down and both sides have a lot at stake.  We don't know if the Packers are asking too much or if the Jets are low balling them, honestly.  But if you think Gute is going to be bent over by anyone you don't know the guy.

[BigRy56]

21 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

[T0mShane]

35 minutes ago, derp said:

I guess Pallazzollo is entitled to that opinion but the track record of teams doing that doesn’t bear that out as a good decision. When’s the last time it worked? What are the analytics that show it’s a good place to do it? He can say it but I don’t think he can defend it.

In recent history, franchise changing QB’s happen when teams fall into an elite guy the year there is one to take #1 or put a guy into a good situation and develop him.

I was very much into trading out of the 2 pick in that draft, hanging on to Darnold, and trying again the next year, where I would have been screwed because it was Kenny Pickett. I personally would have never drafted a petite kid with personality flags from the suburbs of Utah to come to the Jets to be the QB. But, he was the consensus #2 guy behind Lawrence, Douglas had to take his shot on a QB, and I’m guessing he thought that was going to be his chance. I get that you have to make these choices specifically with each QB class, but I don’t think that taking a guy with Zach’s tools in that spot was particularly egregious, especially given what the alternatives were and what Douglas likely knew about the ‘22 class.  Similarly, I wouldn’t want to draft any of the four guys who are projected to go round one this year, but it seems likely all of them are going to go early with at least three gone in the top 6(?). I understand what you’re saying about the lunacy of burning a high pick on QBs who get pushed up the board, but that’s just a result of great QBs being 1. Absurdly profitable and 2. Extremely rare. If we aren’t giving QBs a bump for positional value, what does your top ten look like for this draft? 

[T0mShane]

7 minutes ago, ptisme said:

He could say if this doesn't get done by draft day we'll trade you Rodgers but you won't get him until the day before the regular season starts.

Rodgers: “Nevermind then, I’m happy to be a Packer and I can’t wait to be in camp.”

Now you go.
 

 

[T0mShane]

30 minutes ago, Mogglez said:

On no are they both going to be 49ers oh no. 

[JohnnyLV]

4 minutes ago, ptisme said:

You guys talk like this.  You've said how JD is going to rape Gute Gutekunst and what not...  And maybe you will.   But you know JD is a shrewd guy.  But you should know Gute is too.   What he did in his first draft trading down out of the first round, securing a first rounder the next year and then moving back up to get Jaire Alexander was a thing of beauty.  And last season Devonte Adams had a team he wanted to go to also and Gute got a first AND second for him.  This guy didn't just fall off the turnip truck.  The Jets hold great leverage here for all the stated reasons, including this years picks...  But Gute can hold some cards here too.  He could say if this doesn't get done by draft day we'll trade you Rodgers but you won't get him until the day before the regular season starts.   That would effectively ruin team chemistry for a team that clearly wants Rodgers working with these new players as soon as possible.  This is an epic stare down and both sides have a lot at stake.  We don't know if the Packers are asking too much or if the Jets are low balling them, honestly.  But if you think Gute is going to be bent over by anyone you don't know the guy.

That would be bold. The way I see it is that if the trade does not happen before the draft then GB will definitely not trade him before June 1. At the same time they will never expose themselves to not trading him because it could legitimately wreck their franchise. GB could wait for a QB injury in training camp but the Jets  would have a ton of leverage if it gets to TC. That said I do get the feeling that both sides are so dug in it nay never happen. The Jets should publicly withdraw and wait for Gb to panic

[oatmeal]

5 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

On no are they both going to be 49ers oh no. 

This 

[ptisme]

23 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Rodgers: “Nevermind then, I’m happy to be a Packer and I can’t wait to be in camp.”

Now you go.
 

 

It's possible but I see zero chance Rodgers wants to be seen riding the pine behind Love with the cameras on him every week.  

[Sammybighead]

11 minutes ago, ptisme said:

You guys talk like this.  You've said how JD is going to rape Gute Gutekunst and what not...  And maybe he will.     But you know JD is a shrewd guy.  But you should know Gute is too.   What he did in his first draft trading down to the end of the first, securing a first rounder the next year and then moving back up to get Jaire Alexander (for a third) was a thing of beauty.  And last season Devonte Adams had a team he wanted to go to also and Gute got a first AND second for him.  This guy didn't just fall off the turnip truck.  The Jets hold great leverage here for all the stated reasons, including this years picks...  But Gute can hold some cards here too.  He could say if this doesn't get done by draft day we'll trade you Rodgers but you won't get him until the day before the regular season starts.   That would effectively ruin team chemistry for a team that clearly wants Rodgers working with these new players as soon as possible.  This is an epic stare down and both sides have a lot at stake.  We don't know if the Packers are asking too much or if the Jets are low balling them, honestly.  But if you think Gute is going to be bent over by anyone you don't know the guy.

I'm sure Gute is excellent, but he gave AR a contract and formented an environment over several years that led to this situation. The situation being that he turned AR into an undesirable asset to the point where 30 other teams didn't offer anything for him. 

There is this narrative in the media and amongst GB fans that the Jets management and fanbase are desperate idiots that can be had. We've just watched a dozen years of suck. We're like Rabbit after he finished insulting himself in the rap battle. There is nothing left you can tell us to make us feel worse/more desperate.

I'm not saying this to gain a leg up, I truly mean this: I want AR. Would love to watch winning football for a change. However, I fully support JD to walk away if the price is absurd. Let me define absurd. A 1st this year is absurd. A pick higher than 28 next year is absurd. I will not go into next season looking down the gullet of no qb, no cap space to bring in a qb because Rodgers retired and we stuck with his cap hit, and no high draft pick to have a chance to draft a new qb. 1 decent season doesn't distract me from that potential future reality. And frankly, I hope Jets use all their 2023 picks and restart discussions after the draft.

GB fans keep telling us "we have Rodgers, you don't". We'll, you really don't have Rodgers, he's gone mentally and your president fired him publicly. Also, NY has the draft picks and cap relief you desperately need AND YOU DON'T.

This should be simple: a 2nd this year, another 2nd next year. For a 40 year old qb that has 1 year left and is due 60M, that's more than fair and the fact that GB is turning that down is the exact reason why NOBODY else is offering. These guys all talk, the offer is known by everyone and it's not a secret. The fact that you point to GBs being a bunch of dicks and holding onto him until September out of spite should tell you all you need to know about who has the real leverage.

[Bobby816]

26 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

On no are they both going to be 49ers oh no. 

Haha was thinking the same. That’s what GB fans actually will think. 

[T0mShane]

3 minutes ago, ptisme said:

It's possible but I see zero chance Rodgers wants to be seen riding the pine behind Love with the cameras on him every week.  

I do think he’d rather enjoy making Mark Murphy and Gutenkunst begging him to restructure his deal while Jordan Love twists in the wind, though

[ptisme]

21 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

That would be bold. The way I see it is that if the trade does not happen before the draft then GB will definitely not trade him before June 1. At the same time they will never expose themselves to not trading him because it could legitimately wreck their franchise. GB could wait for a QB injury in training camp but the Jets  would have a ton of leverage if it gets to TC. That said I do get the feeling that both sides are so dug in it nay never happen. The Jets should publicly withdraw and wait for Gb to panic

This is a good take.   Lets look at this from GB's perspective.  So lets say we get down the road a bit and the Jets move on in a different direction.   Now all Rodgers plans for this season are out the window.   Remember he desperately wants another ring (just as much as he covets MVP's, the spotlight and 60 million).  But now he has lost leverage because his "intention" was to play for the jets (who have since moved on).  So his choice then is 1. retire (none of us think he will do that), 2. Go back to GB and sit on the bench and be the massive elephant in the room (I don't think he'll win a super bowl doing that). or 3. Play for some other team that comes into play with the Jets out of the picture.  SFO (as one example)could be an option if Lance and Purdy aren't ready to start the season.   They have more talent than the jets, a better coach, and they are on the west coast where he lives...

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, Mogglez said:

They are adorable. 

[neckdemon]

1 hour ago, choon328 said:

So many people think your comment if overboard but statistically he's probably the worst 1st rd pick QB in a long time. But people still defend him

Yeah it's not overboard. Dude is bottom of the barrel

[Jets4Life1979]

[ptisme]

7 minutes ago, Sammybighead said:

I'm sure Gute is excellent, but he gave AR a contract and formented an environment over several years that led to this situation. The situation being that he turned AR into an undesirable asset to the point where 30 other teams didn't offer anything for him. 

 

At the time Rodgers was coming off 2 straight MVP's and Love was showing nothing.  Giving Rodgers that deal opened a 2-3 year super bowl window on a team budding with young talent.  In 2022 the ENTIRE team played worse.  Guys weren't taking 2nd and third year leaps.  The defense under Joe Barry was terrible.  Oline was injured.   The young receivers weren't in sync with Rodgers because he never showed up for minicamps and the coach didn't play the starters in the pre season.  Then throughout much of the first half the season the young receivers took turns being injured.

Bottom line the window they thought they had closed.  In hindsight the thought of giving Rodgers that massive extension was a huge mistake as you suggested.  But was much less black and white at the time.  Packers fans certainly weren't bitching about it at the time (I personally wanted them to make the deal with Denver last year).

Regarding other teams not being interested: I think some would have been but (my personal belief) the fact that Rodgers never returned the Packers calls and only told the Jets/Packers his intentions at the last minute leads me to believe Rodgers knew most of the off season he was going to the Jets and wanted to keep everyone in the "dark" to avoid a bidding war for his services.  Also once he said his intention was to play for the Jets why would any team offer the Packers a package.   Now if the Jets move on maybe that changes?   Gute must think he can get something from another team if the Jets move on or the deal would have been done IMO.

[ptisme]

15 minutes ago, Sammybighead said:

GB fans keep telling us "we have Rodgers, you don't". We'll, you really don't have Rodgers, he's gone mentally and your president fired him publicly. Also, NY has the draft picks and cap relief you desperately need AND YOU DON'T.

Yeah I can see that.   We have the rights to Rodgers, we don't have Rodgers the player.   I see Rodgers doing one of three things this year:

1. Playing for the Jets (we both agree we want this done asap)

2. Playing for another team

3. Retiring

I don't see him spending a minute inside 1265 Lombardi Avenue this year nor do they want him there.

[ptisme]

18 minutes ago, Sammybighead said:

This should be simple: a 2nd this year, another 2nd next year. For a 40 year old qb that has 1 year left and is due 60M, that's more than fair and the fact that GB is turning that down is the exact reason why NOBODY else is offering. These guys all talk, the offer is known by everyone and it's not a secret. The fact that you point to GBs being a bunch of dicks and holding onto him until September out of spite should tell you all you need to know about who has the real leverage.

That sounds fair to me.  You and I could agree on this trade in a minute.  Problem is we don't know if the Jets are offering that much.  Maybe that would be good enough for the Packers.   It also may be the Packers want both seconds this year and a first next year and the Jets won't budge.   We just don't know.

[Ghost420]

11 minutes ago, neckdemon said:

Yeah it's not overboard. Dude is bottom of the barrel

You know it's bad when your stats match up with jamarcus Russell 

[ptisme]

18 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

I do think he’d rather enjoy making Mark Murphy and Gutenkunst begging him to restructure his deal while Jordan Love twists in the wind, though

I take it you don't buy Rodgers schtick about lollypops, joy, grace and peace?  

[Sammybighead]

5 minutes ago, ptisme said:

At the time Rodgers was coming off 2 straight MVP's and Love was showing nothing.  Giving Rodgers that deal opened a 2-3 year super bowl window on a team budding with young talent.  In 2022 the ENTIRE team played worse.  Guys weren't taking 2nd and third year leaps.  The defense under Joe Barry was terrible.  Oline was injured.   The young receivers weren't in sync with Rodgers because he never showed up for minicamps and the coach didn't play the starters in the pre season.  Then throughout much of the first half the season the young receivers took turns being injured.

Bottom line the window they thought they had closed.  In hindsight the thought of giving Rodgers that massive extension was a huge mistake as you suggested.  But was much less black and white at the time.  Packers fans certainly weren't bitching about it at the time (I personally wanted them to make the deal with Denver last year).

Regarding other teams not being interested: I think some would have been but (my personal belief) the fact that Rodgers never returned the Packers calls and only told the Jets/Packers his intentions at the last minute leads me to believe Rodgers knew most of the off season he was going to the Jets and wanted to keep everyone in the "dark" to avoid a bidding war for his services.  Also once he said his intention was to play for the Jets why would any team offer the Packers a package.   Now if the Jets move on maybe that changes?   Gute must think he can get something from another team if the Jets move on or the deal would have been done IMO.

Truly, I wish GB the best if they can find anyone else offering unconditional 1sts. 

If not, a deadline needs to be established and Jets need to make a final offer and walk away. Enough is enough already. sh*t or get off the pot. 

[Lupz27]

48 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

That would be bold. The way I see it is that if the trade does not happen before the draft then GB will definitely not trade him before June 1. At the same time they will never expose themselves to not trading him because it could legitimately wreck their franchise. GB could wait for a QB injury in training camp but the Jets  would have a ton of leverage if it gets to TC. That said I do get the feeling that both sides are so dug in it nay never happen. The Jets should publicly withdraw and wait for Gb to panic

I think the deal has to get done before GB has to decide on picking up Loves 5th year.

Love is the wild card here, he may request a trade if he feels it’s effecting his future.

[ptisme]

3 minutes ago, Sammybighead said:

Truly, I wish GB the best if they can find anyone else offering unconditional 1sts. 

If not, a deadline needs to be established and Jets need to make a final offer and walk away. Enough is enough already. sh*t or get off the pot. 

I was giving an example of GB asking for too much, similar to if the Jets were only offering a 4th...

[Sammybighead]

3 minutes ago, ptisme said:

That sounds fair to me.  You and I could agree on this trade in a minute.  Problem is we don't know if the Jets are offering that much.  Maybe that would be good enough for the Packers.   It also may be the Packers want both seconds this year and a first next year and the Jets won't budge.   We just don't know.

We'll find out eventually. Even if it's not the jets and, by some miracle, another partner emerges, a trade will get executed well before the season starts. Like I said, every GM in the league knows generally what the offer is at this point, this stuff can't stay secret for months. Everyone else, to this point, think the jets are offering way to much because nobody else has jumped in yet and tried to go over the top. Your point is also valid, Rodgers wants to play for the jets and can simple threaten to retire if he doesn't get what he wants. Certainly that may be scaring off teams from even making an offer.

[ptisme]

9 minutes ago, Lupz27 said:

I think the deal has to get done before GB has to decide on picking up Loves 5th year.

Love is the wild card here, he may request a trade if he feels it’s effecting his future.

No...  Loves 5th year option will get picked up.   There is a chance he becomes amazing (also a chance he bombs).   But for just 20 million next year it's worth the call to see the river card.  He's the quarterback of the future UNTIL proven otherwise (by Love himself).

[ptisme]

4 minutes ago, Sammybighead said:

We'll find out eventually. Even if it's not the jets and, by some miracle, another partner emerges, a trade will get executed well before the season starts. Like I said, every GM in the league knows generally what the offer is at this point, this stuff can't stay secret for months. Everyone else, to this point, think the jets are offering way to much because nobody else has jumped in yet and tried to go over the top. Your point is also valid, Rodgers wants to play for the jets and can simple threaten to retire if he doesn't get what he wants. Certainly that may be scaring off teams from even making an offer.

They won't want the embarrassment of being turned down by Rodgers.   They'll want to have a feel for if he'll play for them before they make a public offering IMO.  There's always back channels being worked in the NFL.

[derp]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

I was very much into trading out of the 2 pick in that draft, hanging on to Darnold, and trying again the next year, where I would have been screwed because it was Kenny Pickett. I personally would have never drafted a petite kid with personality flags from the suburbs of Utah to come to the Jets to be the QB. But, he was the consensus #2 guy behind Lawrence, Douglas had to take his shot on a QB, and I’m guessing he thought that was going to be his chance. I get that you have to make these choices specifically with each QB class, but I don’t think that taking a guy with Zach’s tools in that spot was particularly egregious, especially given what the alternatives were and what Douglas likely knew about the ‘22 class.  Similarly, I wouldn’t want to draft any of the four guys who are projected to go round one this year, but it seems likely all of them are going to go early with at least three gone in the top 6(?). I understand what you’re saying about the lunacy of burning a high pick on QBs who get pushed up the board, but that’s just a result of great QBs being 1. Absurdly profitable and 2. Extremely rare. If we aren’t giving QBs a bump for positional value, what does your top ten look like for this draft? 

I hate to repeat myself, but to put things differently - the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. That what bad teams drafting QB’s in the 2-5 range is. You have to go back to Matt Ryan to find a success. And a lot of QB’s have been drafted in that area.

Because the track record in that area is so bad, I wouldn’t worry about maybe not being back in that area again. You stockpile assets, improve the team so you’re in a situation that you can support a young quarterback, and then you have ammo to go up into somewhere and get somebody you love.

I agree about the value of a young quarterback. I think what I’m trying to get at is that instead of throwing **** up against the wall in the 2-5 range and hoping it works despite history showing that it really hasn’t, I think it’s far more prudent to be methodical about the decision. Allen and Mahomes both went to playoff teams who moved up. Philly stockpiled capital and hasn’t needed it yet, but they’ve been able to support Hurts. Just think it’s a better way to get the guy.

[Jets4Life1979]

 

[Sammybighead]

3 minutes ago, Jets4Life1979 said:

 

This is exactly right. GB wants this done before the draft. I want the jets to use all their draft picks and resume talks after the draft. Tell me which side has more urgency?

[BigRy56]

11 minutes ago, Jets4Life1979 said:

 

I guess they’re going to have to hurry up and take that 5th round pick then 

[sciond]

1 hour ago, ptisme said:

It's possible but I see zero chance Rodgers wants to be seen riding the pine behind Love with the cameras on him every week.  

he has 60 million reason to do so...

[ptisme]

16 minutes ago, sciond said:

he has 60 million reason to do so...

Exactly why I said he's not retiring.. And GB doesn't want him near the building..   If the jets move on he'll play for someone else.

[T0mShane]

43 minutes ago, derp said:

I hate to repeat myself, but to put things differently - the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results. That what bad teams drafting QB’s in the 2-5 range is. You have to go back to Matt Ryan to find a success. And a lot of QB’s have been drafted in that area.

Because the track record in that area is so bad, I wouldn’t worry about maybe not being back in that area again. You stockpile assets, improve the team so you’re in a situation that you can support a young quarterback, and then you have ammo to go up into somewhere and get somebody you love.

I agree about the value of a young quarterback. I think what I’m trying to get at is that instead of throwing **** up against the wall in the 2-5 range and hoping it works despite history showing that it really hasn’t, I think it’s far more prudent to be methodical about the decision. Allen and Mahomes both went to playoff teams who moved up. Philly stockpiled capital and hasn’t needed it yet, but they’ve been able to support Hurts. Just think it’s a better way to get the guy.

I think I fundamentally agree that building up the roster and then dropping the QB in is ideal, but I also think that when you’re in range to grab a prospect with the requisite traits, it’s alright to shoot your shot on him, with the expectation that he might not play right away which gives you a window to get the roster ready (or, readier).