Grade the Potential Picks: UGA TE Brock Bowers / Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy

[Augustiniak]

2 minutes ago, slats said:

Lol, we’re not usually in lockstep, but we are here. 
 
In 2023, of the top 20 receptions leaders, four were TEs, with two of them in the 15-20 range. In total yards, the top 20 are all WRs. TDs? Only one TE in the top 20, you’d have to get to 30 before the next TE appears on the list. There’s a reason the franchise number for a WR is about $10M higher than the number for TEs, they’re far more valuable. That’s why TEs don’t go top 10 very often, while WRs are a staple of the top of the draft in the modern era. Banking on an undersized TE to make a splash as a rookie is something of a fool’s errand. 
 
And taking any QB at #10 this year would be plain stupidity. 

Bowers would be a good 2nd round pick.  That would be good value.  And i do think he’s going to fall a bit on draft day.

based on how FA is going and how difficult it is to get true playmakers, i fully expect douglas to stay at 10 and take his favorite wr.  And at this point it’s between rome and BTJ.  It’s hard to fault the jets for taking BTJ when they have 1 proven wr in a draft where there’s lot of good wrs and the jets have no 2nd round pick.  This team just can’t score and while bowers would help the offense he doesn’t stress defenses like one of these big fast wrs.

[GKnight83]

This poll is interesting to me.

I think there is a good chance either one of the OT or WR falls to 10.

That given, I would be very disappointed in the Jets taking a TE or QB.

If not, I can see the TE being the choice.

 

[LionelRichie]

I don't study the draft but I was never impressed by McCarthy this year.   He could end up great but he reminds me a lot of Blake Bortles.    fwiw, I'm not a fan of Penix either - great college QB but I don't see his game translating to the NFL.

[CanadienJetsFan]

2 hours ago, Claymation said:

It is now. Teams that have the the Super Bowl with very Good TEs: KC; TB; NE and; Philadelphia. With the Rams having the weakest TE.

Kittle, Kelce are unicorns. your taking a risk on this guy

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

OL OL OL

[Warfish]

14 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

Everyone’s obsession with OL is absurd at this point,  they don’t need every guy to be a first round pick. 

True, they don't all need to be 1st rounders.

They do, however, need to be available (i.e. not hurt) and of high quality.

As we've seen, JD has had very serious failings building an O-line with these two qualities so far in his tenure in NY.

Our offense has been unambiguously atrocious for a long time.  It needs fixed for this team to ever compete.  O-line is part of that.  

[Scotty Wooty Doo Doo]

Taking Bowers at 10 would be criminal , for 1 he's already hurt, and 2 Hackett wouldn't even know how to use him .  Load up on WR in the draft  take 2 or possibly 3 , the class is loaded with playmakers .

[Alka]

15 hours ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

You never use your #1 pick, and a 10, for a TE. It’s not a premium position.

QB

tackle

DE

CB

WR

these are the premium positions. Either take the best tackle or WR. Simple

 

Hey, we drafted Jamal Adams, a safety with the #6 pick, and see how that turned out?  No too bad!!  

[Augustiniak]

54 minutes ago, Warfish said:

True, they don't all need to be 1st rounders.

They do, however, need to be available (i.e. not hurt) and of high quality.

As we've seen, JD has had very serious failings building an O-line with these two qualities so far in his tenure in NY.

Our offense has been unambiguously atrocious for a long time.  It needs fixed for this team to ever compete.  O-line is part of that.  

The jets currently have a bottom 10 rank in the nfl of overall weapons.  This wr class is loaded.  If the jets don’t pick a wr until the 3rd round, they’re getting at best a decent prospect, while 10-12 other teams just loaded up.  Guys like mike evans are much harder to get than a decent tackle.  What happens if garrett wilson misses a game?  Right now they have 1 viable wr.  

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

Is there a grade choice worse than F-

Reaching for a day 2 QB prospect at #10 overall when your 40 y.o. QB needs all the help he can get in what's either his final year or final year of reasonably high-level production?

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

16 hours ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

You never use your #1 pick, and a 10, for a TE. It’s not a premium position.

QB

tackle

DE

CB

WR

these are the premium positions. Either take the best tackle or WR. Simple

Salaries across the league and FA contracts tell you what the premium positions are.

TE is valued slightly higher than RB, which is the most fungible position in the league.

And the only positions valued lower than RB are LS, P, and PK 🤣

There are a lot of things working against the probability of Bowers paying off for the Jets (or any other team) as a top-10 pick.

QB, OT, and WR are the most irreplaceable positions.  You can't just find guys off the street and get by there.

Even OGs have increased in value with more teams sending pressure up the middle and traditional pocket passers like Brees and Brady notably struggling most with pressure right in their face.

[Augustiniak]

6 minutes ago, JoeNamathsFurCoat said:

Salaries across the league and FA contracts tell you what the premium positions are.

TE is valued slightly higher than RB, which is the most fungible position in the league.

And the only positions valued lower than RB are LS, P, and PK 🤣

There are a lot of things working against the probability of Bowers paying off for the Jets (or any other team) as a top-10 pick.

QB, OT, and WR are the most irreplaceable positions.  You can't just find guys off the street and get by there.

Even OGs have increased in value with more teams sending pressure up the middle and traditional pocket passers like Brees and Brady notably struggling most with pressure right in their face.

We could have at least 8 of the top 10 picks on offense.  Maybe more.  And for all we know BTJ could go top 10.  Guys who score points get you to the playoffs, and the jets have 1 wr right now. 

[JoeNamathsFurCoat]

4 hours ago, Augustiniak said:

Bowers would be a good 2nd round pick.  That would be good value.  And i do think he’s going to fall a bit on draft day.

based on how FA is going and how difficult it is to get true playmakers, i fully expect douglas to stay at 10 and take his favorite wr.  And at this point it’s between rome and BTJ.  It’s hard to fault the jets for taking BTJ when they have 1 proven wr in a draft where there’s lot of good wrs and the jets have no 2nd round pick.  This team just can’t score and while bowers would help the offense he doesn’t stress defenses like one of these big fast wrs.

TE is a very difficult position to evaluate.

The biggest hits have been on days 2 and day 3:

Kelce, Gronk, Mark Andrews, Aaron Hernandez (good on-field at least), Antonio freaking Gates (UDFA), Kittle, LaPorta (looks like a steal)

1st round difference makers / hits / values:

Tony Gonzalez (HOF)

1st round good to great:

Vernon Davis

TJ Hockenson (traded by DET because they didn't want to pay him 2nd contract;  replaced with day 2 pick LaPorta who looks even better 🤣)

Greg Olsen

Meh:

Dustin Keller

Evan Engram

David Njoku

Tyler Eifert

1st round busts:

Brandon Pettitgrew

Jermaine Gresham

Eric Ebron

Noah Fant

Hayden Hurst

OJ Howard

Jury is out:

Kyle Pitts

Dalton Kincaid

[BleedsgreenNYJ]

Athletic had a good article on why you dont take a TE in the first 10 picks.

Basically, no financial upside...its already baked in.  You're paying them like a top TE right out of the gate.  It's a poor long term move.

Now, we're win now so if we sign that second WR and get some OL depth...theres your case.

I'd still avoid it and go top WR or OT, whoever falls.

[Claymation]

1 hour ago, CanadienJetsFan said:

Kittle, Kelce are unicorns. your taking a risk on this guy

6 of the top 20 leaders in Reception were TEs last year. The trend in the NFL has been going this way for quite some time.

[Claymation]

Bowers has arguably the 2nd best hands in the draft this year.