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Are the Chargers the linchpin to our draft?


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Assuming QBs go 1 -3 and AZ trades out of #4 to a team looking for QB #4 (whoever is remaining), it looks like the Chargers would kind of dictate what happens to us @ #10 (assuming no trades). They have the same needs as us: O-line and WR (probably more than us). Harbaugh came out and said he "can't wait" to "build up" the line.

If they go o-line, there may be a better chance of one of the top 3 WRs making it to us. If they go WR, I doubt the top 3 make it to us and we may be looking at the #3 OT available (depending on how you have them ranked after Alt) at #10.

For some reason I keep thinking the Giants could go for Bowers if they don't trade up for a QB.

Just my thoughts.

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I think the Chargers want to move out for a RT.

Cardinals moved up and down last year and might want to do the same. I think they stick and pick their top position player but if they want to address a specific need they can do that.

Whether the Bears want to go WR is a big one. Falcons going offense or trading to someone who goes offense would be a killer. Titans surprising with their OT choice would be interesting or they could move out.

Think the Jets should just have deals in place to move up to 7/8/9 depending on how the board falls.

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On 3/27/2024 at 10:48 AM, derp said:

I think the Chargers want to move out for a RT.

Cardinals moved up and down last year and might want to do the same. I think they stick and pick their top position player but if they want to address a specific need they can do that.

Whether the Bears want to go WR is a big one. Falcons going offense or trading to someone who goes offense would be a killer. Titans surprising with their OT choice would be interesting or they could move out.

Think the Jets should just have deals in place to move up to 7/8/9 depending on how the board falls.

I agree, I think Falcons and Bears will really dictate who's there for us. The "top 7" feels like it's pretty much a lock to feature four QBs, Alt, Nabers, and MHJ. A lot more intrigue after that.

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I think they are super important as well as the Giants. If the Giants want QB and JJ goes before, the Giants could be a good partner to go get the WR we want. My guy says that we do not see 4 QBs in the Top 6. Someone will fall off

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On 3/27/2024 at 10:48 AM, derp said:

I think the Chargers want to move out for a RT.

Cardinals moved up and down last year and might want to do the same. I think they stick and pick their top position player but if they want to address a specific need they can do that.

Whether the Bears want to go WR is a big one. Falcons going offense or trading to someone who goes offense would be a killer. Titans surprising with their OT choice would be interesting or they could move out.

Think the Jets should just have deals in place to move up to 7/8/9 depending on how the board falls.

All signs point to this, especially the more Harbaugh speaks.  I think they could easily drop down with Minnesota, maybe sending them a 3rd as well(based on the draft pick value chart) for 11 and 23.  Take Fuaga at 11 and then you can still get a pretty damn good WR at 23 if you'd like.  Even in the 2nd at pick 37 there should be some good ones.  Considering they just took Johnston last year, as disappointing as he looked, it's possible they don't NEED an elite WR prospect.  Add another good one and hope that at least one of the two reaches their potential, all while getting that mauler RT.

 

I think we'll have a real hard time trying to move up with them since I doubt we can compete with Minny's offer.  It would be a nice though.  Atlanta is the much more realistic option and should probably only cost something like 111 and a 5th or something next year.  I think if we really wanted one of the top-3 WRs, we could make it happen.  I think JD might prefer to sit back, keep his picks, and just take Bowers as a consolation prize.  

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18 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

All signs point to this, especially the more Harbaugh speaks.  I think they could easily drop down with Minnesota, maybe sending them a 3rd as well(based on the draft pick value chart) for 11 and 23.  Take Fuaga at 11 and then you can still get a pretty damn good WR at 23 if you'd like.  Even in the 2nd at pick 37 there should be some good ones.  Considering they just took Johnston last year, as disappointing as he looked, it's possible they don't NEED an elite WR prospect.  Add another good one and hope that at least one of the two reaches their potential, all while getting that mauler RT.

 

I think we'll have a real hard time trying to move up with them since I doubt we can compete with Minny's offer.  It would be a nice though.  Atlanta is the much more realistic option and should probably only cost something like 111 and a 5th or something next year.  I think if we really wanted one of the top-3 WRs, we could make it happen.  I think JD might prefer to sit back, keep his picks, and just take Bowers as a consolation prize.  

I think Bowers is such a risky consolation prize as you’re betting on a YAC player with no testing and very limited contested opportunities since he does so much underneath. A massive pro day would move the needle a smidge into believing it’ll translate but I’m just not sure how well what he made a living on in college will actually translate to the pros.

You can make the case both ways which is why he’s polarizing - him as a big slot and Rodgers liking getting rid of the ball kind of fits. But digging into the underlying metrics and having that reinforce what he was in college and me not being sure how that translates has me leaning no. I suspect - kind of like a lot of players the Jets have drafted - the NFL is lower on him than draft media. Classic Maccagnan pick (and they weren’t all bad).

To me the WR’s are a big tier break above him even if rankings have them close. I badly want them to land one of those guys and am trying to prepare myself to be disappointed but I’m doing a terrible job.

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11 minutes ago, derp said:

I think Bowers is such a risky consolation prize as you’re betting on a YAC player with no testing and very limited contested opportunities since he does so much underneath. A massive pro day would move the needle a smidge into believing it’ll translate but I’m just not sure how well what he made a living on in college will actually translate to the pros.

You can make the case both ways which is why he’s polarizing - him as a big slot and Rodgers liking getting rid of the ball kind of fits. But digging into the underlying metrics and having that reinforce what he was in college and me not being sure how that translates has me leaning no. I suspect - kind of like a lot of players the Jets have drafted - the NFL is lower on him than draft media. Classic Maccagnan pick (and they weren’t all bad).

To me the WR’s are a big tier break above him even if rankings have them close. I badly want them to land one of those guys and am trying to prepare myself to be disappointed but I’m doing a terrible job.

I'm honestly not too concerned about his contested catch ability.  Even if he struggles there, his bread and butter is - like you said - underneath routes and piling on YAC.  I don't see why that wouldn't translate tbh.  He'll have a tougher time running over LBs at the next level but I still see him manhandling NFL DBs.  I don't see him having a very difficult time separating from NFL LBs either.  I know nothing of "underlying metrics" but based on what I've seen, his skillset looks to be a pretty safe bet to translate.  The only thing that could hold him back as far as I'm concerned are injuries, but it's a risk I'm willing to take since the upside is so big.  

 

I'll legit be surprised if JD doesn't fall in love with the kid.  Whether or not that means he'll take him at 10, who knows, but I expect he'll be high on their board.  I just love what the long-term trio of Garrett, Bowers, and Breece does for our offense.  They can beat you in so many different ways, and would be extremely difficult to gameplan against - especially if Bowers reaches his upside or close to it. 

 

I don't think it's a surprise that the one guy rival fans seem to fear us drafting the most is Bowers.  

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15 hours ago, JohnnyLV said:

I think they are super important as well as the Giants. If the Giants want QB and JJ goes before, the Giants could be a good partner to go get the WR we want. My guy says that we do not see 4 QBs in the Top 6. Someone will fall off

I agree with this. Both could take WR, which would not leave a BPA WR for the Jets. Then you’re looking at Bower’s, OT.

If neither take a WR, Jets chances to land Nabers or Odunze goes way up.

If one of them take a WR, I could see Odunze there at 10, but not Nabers.

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13 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

I'm honestly not too concerned about his contested catch ability.  Even if he struggles there, his bread and butter is - like you said - underneath routes and piling on YAC.  I don't see why that wouldn't translate tbh.  He'll have a tougher time running over LBs at the next level but I still see him manhandling NFL DBs.  I don't see him having a very difficult time separating from NFL LBs either.  I know nothing of "underlying metrics" but based on what I've seen, his skillset looks to be a pretty safe bet to translate.  The only thing that could hold him back as far as I'm concerned are injuries, but it's a risk I'm willing to take since the upside is so big.  

 

I'll legit be surprised if JD doesn't fall in love with the kid.  Whether or not that means he'll take him at 10, who knows, but I expect he'll be high on their board.  I just love what the long-term trio of Garrett, Bowers, and Breece does for our offense.  They can beat you in so many different ways, and would be extremely difficult to gameplan against - especially if Bowers reaches his upside or close to it. 

 

I don't think it's a surprise that the one guy rival fans seem to fear us drafting the most is Bowers.  

To me, run after catch depends on a mix of good instincts and having physical traits - size, athleticism, lateral agility - that are superior to your competition to the point that they make you hard to bring down. It’s not uncommon for guys to do worse after the catch in the pros where the defenders are faster, stronger, and better tacklers - in fact I think it’s pretty normal to have a tick down.

On top of that we know the size isn’t good and we don’t really know much about the athleticism, so that’s not especially encouraging.

And windows are always tighter in the pros so while you want guys separating it’s important to be able to make contested catches if you’re any kind of pass catcher.

We also don’t really know how much he separates because so much of his work is done underneath - plays hand in hand with the lack of contested opportunities.

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3 hours ago, NYJCAP2 said:

I agree with this. Both could take WR, which would not leave a BPA WR for the Jets. Then you’re looking at Bower’s, OT.

If neither take a WR, Jets chances to land Nabers or Odunze goes way up.

If one of them take a WR, I could see Odunze there at 10, but not Nabers.

Been thinking about this some more. I think the JJ smoke is real so in the end the Top 7 will be

1. 4QBs 2 WR OT (TEN)

2. 4QBs 1 WR 2 OT (SD TEN)

So Chargers are still uber important but since Atlanta is likely to go defense, Chicago essentially decides what we get

I think we need to trade up to 8 which guarantees us at worst choice of 2nd OT or 2nd WR on the board and possibly the #1 OT on our board. 

If we are at 8 we are basically guaranteed to get Alt, Nabers or Odunze

If we pick at 10 at least 1 of them will be gone and possibly 2 since ATL might trade with someone else

 

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16 minutes ago, JohnnyLV said:

Been thinking about this some more. I think the JJ smoke is real so in the end the Top 7 will be

1. 4QBs 2 WR OT (TEN)

2. 4QBs 1 WR 2 OT (SD TEN)

So Chargers are still uber important but since Atlanta is likely to go defense, Chicago essentially decides what we get

I think we need to trade up to 8 which guarantees us at worst choice of 2nd OT or 2nd WR on the board and possibly the #1 OT on our board. 

If we are at 8 we are basically guaranteed to get Alt, Nabers or Odunze

If we pick at 10 at least 1 of them will be gone and possibly 2 since ATL might trade with someone else

 

It’s not a bad strategy, but personally, I can’t see them trading up. They need to keep their labor cost relatively low with guys they need to re-sign in the future.

I think that’s why the vet 1 year deals are good for this year, but you need to supplement it with draft picks.

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Been thinking about this some more. I think the JJ smoke is real so in the end the Top 7 will be
1. 4QBs 2 WR OT (TEN)
2. 4QBs 1 WR 2 OT (SD TEN)
So Chargers are still uber important but since Atlanta is likely to go defense, Chicago essentially decides what we get
I think we need to trade up to 8 which guarantees us at worst choice of 2nd OT or 2nd WR on the board and possibly the #1 OT on our board. 
If we are at 8 we are basically guaranteed to get Alt, Nabers or Odunze
If we pick at 10 at least 1 of them will be gone and possibly 2 since ATL might trade with someone else
 
I'm struggling to see Atlanta trading down in this scenario. Assuming they want to go Edge, and we trade up to 8 and take the last of the top 3 WR, it would likely mean that Chicago go Edge at 9. So they could lose the guy they want by dropping two spots, for very little benefit.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk

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2 hours ago, jamesr said:

I'm struggling to see Atlanta trading down in this scenario. Assuming they want to go Edge, and we trade up to 8 and take the last of the top 3 WR, it would likely mean that Chicago go Edge at 9. So they could lose the guy they want by dropping two spots, for very little benefit.

Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk
 

Chicago could certainly make that mistake and follow a long history of team that draft a QB then turn to defense in the draft. They should spend the entire draft on getting weapons for and protecting their new QB

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13 hours ago, JohnnyLV said:

Chicago could certainly make that mistake and follow a long history of team that draft a QB then turn to defense in the draft. They should spend the entire draft on getting weapons for and protecting their new QB

They already have a decent set of weapons - Keenan Allen and DJ Moore at WR, Kmet at TE, Swift at RB. So they could use some depth, like everyone else, but not a screaming need. And having vet guys will help the QB transition a lot.

Not aware of what their OL is like one way or the other, but haven't read much that says "OMG, they need to draft a guy pronto". NFL.com says they could do with a guy to compete with their incumbent starter at LT (Braxton Jones). 

But if the top rated guy on their board is an Edge (which is another potential need) they shouldn't be reaching for depth players that early.

 

 

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Bears fans seem evenly split between WR, DE, or trade back.  Of the DE contingent, they seem to like Verse as much as Turner.

So they could slide to 10 and definitely get one of the two DE.  But they could just as easily drop a few more slots and probably get one as well which is the danger.  Honestly, if we value Odunze/Nabers a lot more than the alternatives, moving up to 8 or 9 makes sense and shouldn't be viewed as 'wasting picks'.

Of course the 'nightmare' scenario has 3 QBs, 3 WRs, and Alt going 1-7.  That would be just awful and while it sounds impossible in a normal draft year, it could happen.

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22 hours ago, Integrity28 said:

If our GM has a strategy that crumbles based on one variable change before his pick, we’re ****ed anyway.

Agree, but what the Chargers do at 5 (I believe) will have a trickle down effect on picks 6-9 as well.

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10 minutes ago, CTJetsFan said:

Agree, but what the Chargers do at 5 (I believe) will have a trickle down effect on picks 6-9 as well.

Dude, of course it will, but so will the other 9 picks. It’s basic logic that the things that happen first may or may not influence the things that happen next.

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On 4/19/2024 at 1:26 PM, JohnnyLV said:

One of those options. He sees both as realistic but them taking OT regardless.

If you assume QB 1-3, MHJ at 4 and OT (presume Alt) at 5, it sets up various scenarios that might help us - and some that may not.

Tenn could still go OT, meaning a greater chance of a WR falling to 10. If Alt is gone they may be more willing to trade down and pick an OT in the 10-15 range. If the trade up is for QB 4 (or even 5?) that is good for us. If it is for a WR then not good. But it also opens the door for us to trade up to #7 for a WR ... I wouldn't rule it out as Tenn would only be moving back 3 spots, meaning they would still be getting a good player. And if Tenn do not go OT ... they could pick a WR, or they could go Bowers, or the first defensive player.

 

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1 hour ago, jamesr said:

If you assume QB 1-3, MHJ at 4 and OT (presume Alt) at 5, it sets up various scenarios that might help us - and some that may not.

Tenn could still go OT, meaning a greater chance of a WR falling to 10. If Alt is gone they may be more willing to trade down and pick an OT in the 10-15 range. If the trade up is for QB 4 (or even 5?) that is good for us. If it is for a WR then not good. But it also opens the door for us to trade up to #7 for a WR ... I wouldn't rule it out as Tenn would only be moving back 3 spots, meaning they would still be getting a good player. And if Tenn do not go OT ... they could pick a WR, or they could go Bowers, or the first defensive player.

 

I am not convinced Alt is a consensus best tackle among the GMs. If Arizona trades out of 4, I could totally see us trying to get the Chargers pick.

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9 hours ago, JohnnyLV said:

I am not convinced Alt is a consensus best tackle among the GMs. If Arizona trades out of 4, I could totally see us trying to get the Chargers pick.

#5 would be very costly. I'd love the outcome (MHJ) but the cost would definitely include next year's #1, probably more.

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11 hours ago, jamesr said:

#5 would be very costly. I'd love the outcome (MHJ) but the cost would definitely include next year's #1, probably more.

Yes, but if we are going to go all in then part of me says just REALLY be all in.

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