Boom or bust?

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

4 minutes ago, nycdan said:

before we start building ourselves a statue for being the first to label him a bust

A bust bust?

 

———————————-

morphing into dad now 99.1% complete

 

 

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, Bronx said:

Kevin Thibodaux says hi!

Why does he say hi?  

[Jethead]

3 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

Why does he say hi?  

Thibodaux - Undisciplined diva headcase. Like our guy better.

[JustInFudge]

51 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

Agree with this. That doesn't mean he's going to take the same leap JJ did (which was unreal) but I'm still where I was last year: kid has all the tools to be an excellent pass rusher and he's on a team that's demonstrated the ability to help those guys develop into great pass rushers. So we'll see how it goes, but there's reason for optimism, especially after he put up everything you'd want to see from a rookie pass rusher last year other than volume

Both JJ and Huff made huge strides from '22 to '23, so I think it's a good bet this coaching staff can get the same type of leap from Will and fully expect him to pick up right where Huff left off.  The reality is, the Jets havent had a pass rusher w/ his athletic profile in a long long long time, he's the only Gumby like pass rusher on the team.  He's gunna light it up IMO.  Fully expecting 10-12 sack range.

 

 

[Alka]

2 hours ago, Jethead said:

TBD. No regrets 

What a waste of a thread.  To talk about McDonald either being a bust or not at this point, is just mental masturbation.

TBD is the correct approach.  As of now, no regrets.  Let's just keep our panties on and see what happens.

[Smashmouth]

3 hours ago, JustInFudge said:

Pure stud, best pure pass rusher on the team.  Will have a breakout double digit sack season.  

 With JJ and Reddick maybe he gets 40 % snaps if hes lucky . JJ can move around and even play some LB if McDonald seriously breaks out but we need as much of JJ on the field as we can get and obviously Reddick with his salary will be getting  lot of snaps.

[Doggin94it]

1 minute ago, JustInFudge said:

Both JJ and Huff made huge strides from '22 to '23, so I think it's a good bet this coaching staff can get the same type of leap from Will and fully expect him to pick up right where Huff left off.  The reality is, the Jets havent had a pass rusher w/ his athletic profile in a long long long time, he's the only Gumby like pass rusher on the team.  He's gunna light it up IMO.  Fully expecting 10-12 sack range.

 

 

I'd love 10-12, but expect 6-9. With their rotational scheme and the need to get JJ/Reddick on the field as well, I'd consider 30 across that group, however distributed, a huge win. Figure 12 for Reddick, that would leave an average of 9 each for JJ and Will. Johnson went from 2.5 to 7.5, so 9 is definitely available. Will only had 3 last year. His higher upside and usage makes it possible, but 9 is a reach. 10-12 is unlikely IMO - possible, but not expected

[Smashmouth]

5 minutes ago, Alka said:

What a waste of a thread.  To talk about McDonald either being a bust or not at this point, is just mental masturbation.

TBD is the correct approach.  As of now, no regrets.  Let's just keep our panties on and see what happens.

Agree way to early to have the boom or bust conversation

[The Crusher]

1 hour ago, joewilly12 said:

You don’t need them .. apple slices better choice.

No personal attacks please. Thanx. 

[JustInFudge]

1 minute ago, Smashmouth said:

 With JJ and Reddick maybe he gets 40 % snaps if hes lucky . JJ can move around and even play some LB if McDonald seriously breaks out but we need as much of JJ on the field as we can get and obviously Reddick with his salary will be getting  lot of snaps.

That's fine.  Huff played 42% last year, still had double digit sacks.  I think it will be interesting to see how they use Reddick.  Q. Will played 68%, JJ played 65% and JFM played 55%.   I anticipate the same distribution w/ Reddick taking JFM's snap count.

The other factor here, assuming Rodgers stays healthy and is still good, the Jets should be playing w/ leads which could contribute to see an increase in snaps for a player like Will. 

[Smashmouth]

11 hours ago, Doggin94it said:

I'd love 10-12, but expect 6-9. With their rotational scheme and the need to get JJ/Reddick on the field as well, I'd consider 30 across that group, however distributed, a huge win. Figure 12 for Reddick, that would leave an average of 9 each for JJ and Will. Johnson went from 2.5 to 7.5, so 9 is definitely available. Will only had 3 last year. His higher upside and usage makes it possible, but 9 is a reach. 10-12 is unlikely IMO - possible, but not expected

yeah I would be leaning 10-12 if he played full time with no rotation but thats not our defense and I expect JJ and Reddick to get the bulk of the snaps. McDonald is a pure passrusher JIF gave a good run down of his ability but how do you justify  as a coach taking snaps away from JJ and Reddick ? Only thing that will hold back evaluation is snap count and it will 100% be less than JJ and Reddick

[The Crusher]

58 minutes ago, Bronx said:

A little distracted at the beach, I'll do better next time.

For the love of God you leave on a freaking island. Technically you are always   at the beach. Eat some damn carbs and try to keep up princess. 

[Smashmouth]

1 minute ago, JustInFudge said:

That's fine.  Huff played 42% last year, still had double digit sacks.  I think it will be interesting to see how they use Reddick.  Q. Will played 68%, JJ played 65% and JFM played 55%.   I anticipate the same distribution w/ Reddick taking JFM's snap count.

The other factor here, assuming Rodgers stays healthy and is still good, the Jets should be playing w/ leads which could contribute to see an increase in snaps for a player like Will. 

keep in mind JFM went inside as well to get his snaps Im not seing any of that from any of our 3 DE's unless they get fancy with sh*t but even then its would be like showing your hand cause no one is going to expect any of those 3 to rush from the interior if they do experiment they would probably Throw Clemens inside a bit. Fact is we are stacked on the DL and will always have fresh players to go around. In speculation I would love to see us run with typical DL and set Mcdonald on the outside rushing 5 at the line that could wreak havoc 

[JustInFudge]

4 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

I'd love 10-12, but expect 6-9. With their rotational scheme and the need to get JJ/Reddick on the field as well, I'd consider 30 across that group, however distributed, a huge win. Figure 12 for Reddick, that would leave an average of 9 each for JJ and Will. Johnson went from 2.5 to 7.5, so 9 is definitely available. Will only had 3 last year. His higher upside and usage makes it possible, but 9 is a reach. 10-12 is unlikely IMO - possible, but not expected

As mentioned before, Huff made the same exact leap from '22 to '23.  He had 3.5 sacks on 190 snaps and then had 10 on 480 snaps and Will had 3 on 180.  JJ went from 2.5 to 7.5 but he also played over 150 more snaps than Will did his rookie year.  Will is a much better pure pass rusher, IMO.  I understand Reddick's presence but between Jefferson and JFM - that's 1100 snaps they have out there for players to take which I think puts Will in that 450-500 snaps range, so if he just produced like he did as a rookie, that's 8.5 sacks.  I expect him to be a better player in year  and full expect,  10-12 sacks.

[Smashmouth]

Just now, JustInFudge said:

As mentioned before, Huff made the same exact leap from '22 to '23.  He had 3.5 sacks on 190 snaps and then had 10 on 480 snaps and Will had 3 on 180.  JJ went from 2.5 to 7.5 but he also played over 150 more snaps than Will did his rookie year.  Will is a much better pure pass rusher, IMO.  I understand Reddick's presence but between Jefferson and JFM - that's 1100 snaps they have out there for players to take which I think puts Will in that 450-500 snaps range, so if he just produced like he did as a rookie, that's 8.5 sacks.  I expect him to be a better player in year  and full expect,  10-12 sacks.

JIF we didnt have Reddick last year (taking snaps from Huff) so keep that in mind when it comes to snap counts I do nto think McDonald will get as many snaps because Huff was always in on Passing downs . Between JJ and Reddick who you taking snaps from on passing downs to get McDonald his 40% +

[JustInFudge]

18 minutes ago, Doggin94it said:

I'd consider 30 across that group,

The Jets have had over 45 sacks in back to back seasons, as a below .500 ball club.  You're selling them way short.

[JustInFudge]

6 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

JIF we didnt have Reddick last year (taking snaps from Huff) so keep that in mind when it comes to snap counts I do nto think McDonald will get as many snaps because Huff was always in on Passing downs . Between JJ and Reddick who you taking snaps from on passing downs to get McDonald his 40% +

You're not paying attention, 1100 snaps are available between JFM and Jefferson.  If you count up all the pass rusher who saw the field last year who are not here, which would include Lawson and Huff...that is 1700 snaps.  There is plenty to go around and Huff had 10 sacks on 480.  Will should see a similar snap count, easily, if not more because again, leads. 

 

[Smashmouth]

4 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

You're not paying attention, 1100 snaps are available between JFM and Jefferson.  If you count up all the pass rusher who saw the field last year who are not here, which would include Lawson and Huff...that is 1700 snaps.  There is plenty to around.

 

Im paying full attention your trying to manufacture snaps from Interior lineman. As i stated if the Jets try to get fancy and get 3 of those guys on the field meaning McDonald JJ and Reddick then yes it is possible we will just have to see how they play it. I would like to see a 5 man line at times going with the conventional 4 man front and have JJ or McDonald rushing from the outside. That will get them snaps not taking snaps from would be DT's

[Mr. Rogers]

5 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

As mentioned before, Huff made the same exact leap from '22 to '23.  He had 3.5 sacks on 190 snaps and then had 10 on 480 snaps and Will had 3 on 180.  JJ went from 2.5 to 7.5 but he also played over 150 more snaps than Will did his rookie year.  Will is a much better pure pass rusher, IMO.  I understand Reddick's presence but between Jefferson and JFM - that's 1100 snaps they have out there for players to take which I think puts Will in that 450-500 snaps range, so if he just produced like he did as a rookie, that's 8.5 sacks.  I expect him to be a better player in year  and full expect,  10-12 sacks.

It can be difficult to make that jump into double digit range, you extrapolated that he'd have 8.5 sacks playing at the same sack/snap ratio. Maybe he improves on that this off season, but I think he may need that full season of experience to really take off. 7 or 8 sacks on 40% snaps in his sophomore year would still be a very good season, especially if he can add forced fumbles/ etc. 

The other factor here is that the vast majority of his snaps last year were true pass rush situations. Some of the snaps he "picks up" likely won't be, which which will likely dilute that sack/snap ratio. However, if he does what JJ did and parlays that into better all around play - more tackles and turnovers - that'd be great by me. I'd love to see him put up similar numbers to what JJ did last year. 

[Dcat]

4 hours ago, Bronx said:

What's your take on Will McDonald?  Boom or bust? 

Bronx's take: an overdraft bust. 

 

You need to give it another season before a realistic evaluation.

[Mr. Rogers]

24 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

The Jets have had over 45 sacks in back to back seasons, as a below .500 ball club.  You're selling them way short.

That's 30 just between 3 players. The other 6ish in the DL rotation would surely account for more too. 30 between the 3 main edge rushers feels like a reasonable guess, could be higher but that's a nice baseline. Q Williams alone is probably another 5+ and others like Kinlaw and Clemons can hopefully add a few too.

Edit: also, playing with a competent offense and leads should really lead to less time on the field and stats for the defense lol. We want to possess the ball. It's our offensive guys who will hopefully take a bigger jump this year. We're not trying to be pessimistic about this defense - I think the reality is just that they're already at a very high level, and we don't need or expect 3 double digit sack guys to have a phenomenal defensive year again.

Double edit: also, sacks come from more than just edge rushers... no doubt a few of those 45+ were from LBs, safeties, even corner blitzes

[Jet Nut]

4 hours ago, Bronx said:

What's your take on Will McDonald?  Boom or bust? 

Bronx's take: an overdraft bust. 

 

He’s a bust base on what exactly?  

[JustInFudge]

6 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

There is plenty to go around and Huff had 10 sacks on 480.  Will should see a similar snap count, easily, if not more because again, leads. 

 

2 minutes ago, Smashmouth said:

Im paying full attention your trying to manufacture snaps from Interior lineman. As i stated if the Jets try to get fancy and get 3 of those guys on the field meaning McDonald JJ and Reddick then yes it is possible we will just have to see how they play it. I would like to see a 5 man line at times going with the conventional 4 man front and have JJ or McDonald rushing from the outside. That will get them snaps not taking snaps from would be DT's

I edited my post to add the above because I dont see why McDonald wouldnt get as many snaps, if not more, then Huff assuming the Jets play w/ leads.  

I'm not manufacturing anything, I'm just doing simple math.  JFM didnt play exclusively inside but I'll even take his 630 snaps out and act like he did play exclusively inside and then lets say, Reddick takes them all.  There are still 1200 snaps to go around.  Will gets 500, Thomas gets 400, there is still 300 snaps out there to be disrupted, if not more, again, assuming the team has leads this year.

[JustInFudge]

11 minutes ago, Mr. Rogers said:

It can be difficult to make that jump into double digit range, you extrapolated that he'd have 8.5 sacks playing at the same sack/snap ratio. Maybe he improves on that this off season, but I think he may need that full season of experience to really take off. 7 or 8 sacks on 40% snaps in his sophomore year would still be a very good season, especially if he can add forced fumbles/ etc. 

The other factor here is that the vast majority of his snaps last year were true pass rush situations. Some of the snaps he "picks up" likely won't be, which which will likely dilute that sack/snap ratio. However, if he does what JJ did and parlays that into better all around play - more tackles and turnovers - that'd be great by me. I'd love to see him put up similar numbers to what JJ did last year. 

I agree, that would be a fantastic season but again, I dont think people are factoring in just how many snaps are available out there and the fact, he's a better pure pass rusher than JJ.  And in Huff's example, he didnt play exclusive in passing situations, hence the data that he was abysmal vs. the run and how bad the D was vs. the run when he was in the game.  So even if McDonald picks up "non-pass rushing" reps, that's fine, I think he can replicate what Huff did in this defense last year on a 7-10 team.  Again, if you flip that record, how many more snaps become available and how many more pin your ears back situations occur each game?  It could be significant. 

 

 

 

[JustInFudge]

18 minutes ago, Mr. Rogers said:

That's 30 just between 3 players. The other 6ish in the DL rotation would surely account for more too. 30 between the 3 main edge rushers feels like a reasonable guess, could be higher but that's a nice baseline. Q Williams alone is probably another 5+ and others like Kinlaw and Clemons can hopefully add a few too.

Edit: also, playing with a competent offense and leads should really lead to less time on the field and stats for the defense lol. We want to possess the ball. It's our offensive guys who will hopefully take a bigger jump this year. We're not trying to be pessimistic about this defense - I think the reality is just that they're already at a very high level, and we don't need or expect 3 double digit sack guys to have a phenomenal defensive year again.

Kind of forgot about Kinlaw.  lol Still doesnt change my opinion because I doubt Kinlaw plays over 45%.

Yeah, hypothetically they are running out the clock but that doesnt change the fact the other team is passing situations playing catch up.  So yes, they should still see more pure pass rushing situations.  As Ive mentioned before, it's like Mathis and Freeney days for the Colts and Manning.

 

[rangerous]

I’m not worried about Macdonald.  He wasn’t a real reach like polite and Zuniga.  Granted those guys were third rounders but they each should’ve shown something besides where the exit door is.  I think Macdonald can be used to drop back and cover an rb or te.

[Bronx]

55 minutes ago, Jet Nut said:

He’s a bust base on what exactly?  

The same gut feeling that I had for Zach Wilson and Becton. I predicted that both players were busts. Joe Douglas simply over-reached  for a mid-round talent player like McDonald. 

[Jet Nut]

28 minutes ago, Bronx said:

The same gut feeling that I had for Zach Wilson and Becton. I predicted that both players were busts. Joe Douglas simply over-reached  for a mid-round talent player like McDonald. 

And how many other busts did you predict for the Jets?  
Claiming McDonald was a mid round reach is pretty out there.  
What he managed as a rookie in comparison to the other edges drafted last season says your bust meter is broken.

[JustInFudge]

35 minutes ago, Bronx said:

The same gut feeling that I had for Zach Wilson and Becton. I predicted that both players were busts. Joe Douglas simply over-reached  for a mid-round talent player like McDonald. 

 

 

 

						Tackles					Def Int					Fumbles
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Solo	Ast	Tot	Loss	Sk	Int	Yds	Avg	TD	PD	FR	Yds	TD	FF
*2020	Iowa State	Big 12	SO	DE	11	20	15	35	13.0	10.5	0	0		0	1	0			2
*2021	Iowa State	Big 12	JR	DE	12	24	12	36	13.0	11.5	0	0		0	2	0			5
2022	Iowa State	Big 12	SR	DE	12	23	13	36	7.5	5.0	0	0		0	4	1	5	0	1

 

Would love to see the "mid round talent" that has a RAS like this and produced like this in college.

 

Me waiting for Bronx to provide an adequate comparison;

 

[Barry McCockinner]

I had a gut feeling that Zach Wilson was going to be good. Turns out it was too much fermentation ingestion

[The Crusher]

1 hour ago, Bronx said:

The same gut feeling that I had for Zach Wilson and Becton. I predicted that both players were busts. Joe Douglas simply over-reached  for a mid-round talent player like McDonald. 

Fair, but those two clowns came into a brand new offense, with brand new coach and coordinator. Micky D is coming into top tier defense with plenty of Dawgs. Unfair comparison in my opinion.

[Jet Nut]

On 5/23/2024 at 8:29 AM, Augustiniak said:

Jj is a more complete end, mcdonald is an athletic edge who will probably get his sacks but can be a liability in the run.  What’s more valuable, a guy who gets 10-11 sacks but can’t play run downs or a guy like Calvin pace who can do everything pretty well but nothing elite?

Where was this type of evaluation when people were crying that we weren’t going to pay Huff $20M per?  
There is nothing that says McDonald will be a liability vs the run.  

[JKlecko]

8 hours ago, Bronx said:

What's your take on Will McDonald?  Boom or bust? 

Bronx's take: an overdraft bust. 

 

Bronx is wrong. McDonald has already shown that he isn't a bust.

[JKlecko]

4 hours ago, Smashmouth said:

 With JJ and Reddick maybe he gets 40 % snaps if hes lucky . JJ can move around and even play some LB if McDonald seriously breaks out but we need as much of JJ on the field as we can get and obviously Reddick with his salary will be getting  lot of snaps.

JJ isn't going to be playing LB.  If anyone plays LB it would be Reddick.

[Smashmouth]

12 minutes ago, JKlecko said:

JJ isn't going to be playing LB.  If anyone plays LB it would be Reddick.

Doubt that.... JJ played a lot of LB in College and he's not the pass rusher Reddick is so I'm not sure where you're getting this from