Boom or bust?

[Bronx]

What's your take on Will McDonald?  Boom or bust? 

Bronx's take: an overdraft bust. 

 

[GKnight83]

Unworthy of the #99.

Unless he puts up 10 sacks this season I consider him a wasted pick.

It would be interesting if they try him at LB though.

[The Crusher]

I would like fries with that. 

[JustInFudge]

Pure stud, best pure pass rusher on the team.  Will have a breakout double digit sack season.  

[32EBoozer]

Wait until the end of this season (at least) to rag on a 5-10 spot overdraft. Nobody wanted to trade up to 15... JD took the positional value and team need.

Edited May 23 by 32EBoozer
over-reaction

[Warfish]

12 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

Pure stud, best pure pass rusher on the team.  Will have a breakout double digit sack season.  

I hope you’re right.

My own views on the use of that pick are well known.

[T0mShane]

Gonna be interesting to track Will McDonald vs Broderick Jones vs JSN. The scuttlebutt is that Douglas was going to take Jones before the Pats rat****ed him, but they were never going to take JSN regardless, even though he was the fan and draftnik favorite. Reports out of Seattle said that they tried early on to make him a slot/gadget player, but he wasn’t really up to it because he wasn’t athletic enough for the role. Later in the season, they used him more as a traditional outside receiver and he had a few flashes, but there were drops and some disappearing acts down the stretch. 
 

Broderick Jones was pretty solid in the run game for the Steelers, but was spotty in pass pro, which is to be expected for a rookie. The team turned around and drafted Troy Fautanu in the first this year, and they’re making Jones the opening day left tackle. IMO, this one hurt because Jones has everything you want in a tackle, and he would have made the Jets significantly less desperate there last year, which maybe lets them keep Duane Brown in reserve while his shoulder heals, which maybe keeps Rodgers alive for a few more snaps. And, worst case, you’re not going into this draft desperate for tackle help which maybe lets you get more aggressive trading up or down for help at the skill positions. 
 

As for McDonald himself, he was PFF’s highest-graded of the three, had a very good PRWR, especially for a rookie, and seemed to flash in both the pass and run game last year. We don’t have to give Saleh credit for much, but he has shown a good eye for pass rush talent. 

[Jetfuel66]

1 hour ago, Bronx said:

What's your take on Will McDonald?  Boom or bust? 

Bronx's take: an overdraft bust. 

 

Surprising negative take from you.......lol

[sackdance]

36 minutes ago, GKnight83 said:

Unworthy of the #99.

Basically my only take. 

He better make league-wide noise this season - can't have ordinary play from an extraordinary number.

[Jethead]

TBD. No regrets 

[Asymmetrical]

He's got juice and despite barely playing, he jumped off the screen last year. I feel good about it

[Bowles Movement]

He looked good in his limited reps but you predict he is a bust?
 

Will you predict Fashanu is a bust if he doesn’t play much this year?

[JustInFudge]

57 minutes ago, T0mShane said:

Gonna be interesting to track Will McDonald vs Broderick Jones vs JSN. The scuttlebutt is that Douglas was going to take Jones before the Pats rat****ed him, but they were never going to take JSN regardless, even though he was the fan and draftnik favorite. Reports out of Seattle said that they tried early on to make him a slot/gadget player, but he wasn’t really up to it because he wasn’t athletic enough for the role. Later in the season, they used him more as a traditional outside receiver and he had a few flashes, but there were drops and some disappearing acts down the stretch. 
 

Broderick Jones was pretty solid in the run game for the Steelers, but was spotty in pass pro, which is to be expected for a rookie. The team turned around and drafted Troy Fautanu in the first this year, and they’re making Jones the opening day left tackle. IMO, this one hurt because Jones has everything you want in a tackle, and he would have made the Jets significantly less desperate there last year, which maybe lets them keep Duane Brown in reserve while his shoulder heals, which maybe keeps Rodgers alive for a few more snaps. And, worst case, you’re not going into this draft desperate for tackle help which maybe lets you get more aggressive trading up or down for help at the skill positions. 
 

As for McDonald himself, he was PFF’s highest-graded of the three, had a very good PRWR, especially for a rookie, and seemed to flash in both the pass and run game last year. We don’t have to give Saleh credit for much, but he has shown a good eye for pass rush talent. 

Ive mentioned this before but Will McDonald, had a better rookie season than JJ.  He was more productive and more disruptive, on less snaps.  He essentially had the exact same season as Bryce Huff in 22 before Huff broke out in 23.   And the other factor to consider as you project his season, is playing with leads.  That's rare territory around here and that is when most pass rusher do their damage. 

[Augustiniak]

Just now, JustInFudge said:

Ive mentioned this before but Will McDonald, had a better rookie season than JJ.  He was more productive and more disruptive, on less snaps.  He essentially had the exact same season as Bryce Huff in 22 before Huff broke out in 23.   And the other factor to consider as you project his season, is playing with leads.  That's rare territory around here and that is when most pass rusher do their damage. 

Jj is a more complete end, mcdonald is an athletic edge who will probably get his sacks but can be a liability in the run.  What’s more valuable, a guy who gets 10-11 sacks but can’t play run downs or a guy like Calvin pace who can do everything pretty well but nothing elite?

[The Crusher]

59 minutes ago, Jetfuel66 said:

Surprising negative take from you.......lol

It’s like opening a box of Cracker Jacks and  finding a toy. You don’t like, 

[Bronx]

4 minutes ago, The Crusher said:

It’s like opening a box of Cracker Jacks and  finding a toy. You don’t like, 

They were the best in my previous life.

[slats]

14 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Jj is a more complete end, mcdonald is an athletic edge who will probably get his sacks but can be a liability in the run.  What’s more valuable, a guy who gets 10-11 sacks but can’t play run downs or a guy like Calvin pace who can do everything pretty well but nothing elite?

McDonald is bigger than Reddick, who’s proven himself to be a three down lineman. Just because he wasn’t used that way as a rookie doesn’t mean he won’t be capable. He’ll be a primary piece of the rotation this year, so he’ll get his chances there. 
 
I have some faith in these guys when it comes to DL, and McDonald is the reason they were comfortable letting Huff walk. Huff fits your description here still after four years in the league, and he proved himself to be plenty valuable as strictly a pass rush specialist. I would expect that to be McDonald’s primary use this season, and that’s fine. I’m looking forward to a big season from him. 
 
But to answer your question, the guy who’s elite at one thing -in this case a very important thing- is more valuable. The sack artist will always be drafted higher and paid more than a guy who sets the edge. 

[Bronx]

.

[Barry McCockinner]

2 hours ago, Bronx said:

What's your take on Will McDonald?  Boom or bust? 

Bronx's take: an overdraft bust. 

 

Any particular reason for your take?

I don't know what to think of him yet. I don't like that he seems to over rely on the spin move. I do think this CS has to be given credit for developing defensive players well. I think he has a good shot to succeed for that reason.

[Bronx]

Just now, Barry McCockinner said:

Any particular reason for your take?

I don't know what to think of him yet. I don't like that he seems to over rely on the spin move. I do think this CS has to be given credit for developing defensive players well. I think he has a good shot to succeed for that reason.

The spin move and can't overpower.

[Joe W. Namath]

The disease has your guys negativity out at the crack of dawn.  Impressive.

[Augustiniak]

4 minutes ago, slats said:

McDonald is bigger than Reddick, who’s proven himself to be a three down lineman. Just because he wasn’t used that way as a rookie doesn’t mean he won’t be capable. He’ll be a primary piece of the rotation this year, so he’ll get his chances there. 
 
I have some faith in these guys when it comes to DL, and McDonald is the reason they were comfortable letting Huff walk. Huff fits your description here still after four years in the league, and he proved himself to be plenty valuable as strictly a pass rush specialist. I would expect that to be McDonald’s primary use this season, and that’s fine. I’m looking forward to a big season from him. 
 
But to answer your question, the guy who’s elite at one thing -in this case a very important thing- is more valuable. The sack artist will always be drafted higher and paid more than a guy who sets the edge. 

It may not be fair to compare these guys, b/c jj himself was a 1st rounder who just had 7.5 sacks and a pick in a season where their qb didn’t give them many leads.  My gut tells me mcdonald is a guy like huff where you point him at the qb and allow him to leverage his pure athleticism to create sacks and turnovers.  I remember seeing a spin move in his highlight tape and I’m hoping he’s not just a beat you off the edge guy.  

[slats]

5 minutes ago, Bronx said:

Kevin Thibodaux says hi!

I mean, you could try looking up his name…

[Bronx]

16 minutes ago, Joe W. Namath said:

The disease has your guys negativity out at the crack of dawn.  Impressive.

What's your +/- on sacks production? 3.5 - 5 sacks is my take.

[PepPep]

2 minutes ago, Augustiniak said:

Jj is a more complete end, mcdonald is an athletic edge who will probably get his sacks but can be a liability in the run.  What’s more valuable, a guy who gets 10-11 sacks but can’t play run downs or a guy like Calvin pace who can do everything pretty well but nothing elite?

While it is true that McD is only 240lbs, which is light for an edge, and could, at times, get washed out in the run game - to label him as a 'liability' in the run game is not really accurate. He is not a pure outside edge. He knows how to play inside and did so productively in college. 

[joewilly12]

1 hour ago, The Crusher said:

I would like fries with that. 

You don’t need them .. apple slices better choice.

[Doggin94it]

42 minutes ago, JustInFudge said:

Ive mentioned this before but Will McDonald, had a better rookie season than JJ.  He was more productive and more disruptive, on less snaps.  He essentially had the exact same season as Bryce Huff in 22 before Huff broke out in 23.   And the other factor to consider as you project his season, is playing with leads.  That's rare territory around here and that is when most pass rusher do their damage. 

Agree with this. That doesn't mean he's going to take the same leap JJ did (which was unreal) but I'm still where I was last year: kid has all the tools to be an excellent pass rusher and he's on a team that's demonstrated the ability to help those guys develop into great pass rushers. So we'll see how it goes, but there's reason for optimism, especially after he put up everything you'd want to see from a rookie pass rusher last year other than volume

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

There is a difference between a player being a bust vs not being the best pick.

I very much question whether he was the best pick, both at the time and in retrospect.

But to label him a bust at this time is pretty absurd.  Unless we have different definition of busts.

By the end of the year, he was 75%tile amongst Edges in pressure rate and had an elite sack rate (4% on small sample of 100 pass rushing snaps).  This was after a slow start.

If people care to look deeper (and some don’t), the difference between him and Huff will likely come down to BIG PLAYS.  That’s the argument for McDonald.

1. Sack Rate (advantage McDonald so far)

2. Forced Fumbles (McDonald was elite in college and already has as many (1) in limited snaps as Huff has had in 4 years)

3. Batted Passes (Huff has a ‘whopping’ 3 in 4 years)

4. Run Stuffs (Huff has averaged a paltry 1 per year)

5. Miscellaneous like altering field goals (see late against the Giants)

Is he a bust?  TBD but I love his big play potential because of his speed, twitch, bend, motor and long arms.  

 

[Bronx]

25 minutes ago, slats said:

I mean, you could try looking up his name…

A little distracted at the beach, I'll do better next time.

[Mr. Rogers]

The likely reality is somewhere in between. It's easy to go calling a top-15 drafted player who isn't a star a bust, but the reality is most DEs (even those drafted highly) don't go on to become annual double-digit sack players. Hell, many first rounders don't even go on to become above average starters. If a guy becomes a starting quality player you've at least "hit" the pick even if it isn't a "boom" pick. 

Besides #3 overall pick Will Anderson, all of the pass rushers drafted in the first round last year had 3-4 sacks, including McDonald. While it obviously feels like there was a high opportunity cost taking McDonald, to me the reality is if he can get 5-10 sacks a year and be a solid contributor / non liability, he was at least not a wasted pick. Nothing indicates he will fail to meet that mark, and if anything it does feel like he could exceed it. He should definitely be able to offer value against the cap compared to a vet with the same production. 

TLDR; if 1 is bust and 10 is boom, I'm expecting about a 6 but hopeful for higher!

[Joe W. Namath]

34 minutes ago, Bronx said:

What's your +/- on sacks production? 3.5 - 5 sacks is my take.

Hes got 2 guys in front of him.  I expect JJ, Reddick and mcdonald to all be in the 7-10 sack range for the year.

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

[Bronx]

48 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

You don’t need them .. apple slices better choice.

Apples are ranked on top of the list of fruits with excessive glyphosate (Round up/Monsanto) unless they are organic.  FYI

https://www.onlyorganic.org/why-you-should-choose-organic-apples/

[nycdan]

What does this remind me of?  

Oh yeah.  Jermaine Johnson after his first season.

Fun fact, WMD had .5 more sacks and 1 more TFL in his rookie year than JJ2... on roughly 60% of the snaps.

Not saying it points to a big improvement in year 2, but since we JUST saw that happen the prior year, maybe we can give it a minute and see before we start building ourselves a statue for being the first to label him a bust.

[JustInFudge]

1 hour ago, Augustiniak said:

Jj is a more complete end, mcdonald is an athletic edge who will probably get his sacks but can be a liability in the run.  What’s more valuable, a guy who gets 10-11 sacks but can’t play run downs or a guy like Calvin pace who can do everything pretty well but nothing elite?

I dont think we know that Will McDonald is a liability vs. the run, that would be an assumption at this point but I will agree JJ seems more well rounded but he's probably more of an edge setter who gets sacks off effort vs. just blowing past people.  I do think Will does a great job in ball carrier pursuit, he had a bunch of TFL in college.  He needs to get stronger, for sure, just like JJ did last offseason when he exploded and I'm confident he will.

In regards to your question, give me the dude who can ice a game and not let a QB get comfortable all game long vs. the jack of all trade DE's.  I think of those Colts teams that had Freeney and Mathis.  4th quarter, protecting a lead, these guys were animals.  I think we have something similar here w/ Will and JJ.