lawngnome o-line Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 Bulger still not appreciated By KC Joyner ESPN Insider Updated: July 25, 2007 Quarterbacks are the subject of this week's installment of overrated and underrated players. No position in the league is more celebrated or criticized, so emotions tend to run high when putting together quarterback ratings. I try to take as much emotion out of the equation as possible by focusing my analysis on five main metrics: Yards per attempt, success percentage, SYPA, bad-decision percentage and weighted bad-decision percentage. These metrics cover just about every positive and negative a quarterback could bring to his team. As has been the case in each of the previous installments, the rankings are based on how each player's 2006 metrics compare with his reputation. Pro Bowl berths are given a lot of weight in determining the perception of a player. Overrated Quarterbacks Philip Rivers Rivers is a good quarterback, but I am not yet convinced he has reached the level of greatness his Pro Bowl berth would indicate. His performance faded after about the midway point of the 2006 season. In the first 10 games last year, Rivers' composite passer rating was 99.7. Over the last six games, the rating dropped to 77.6. It wasn't just his overall performance that suffered. I did a study late last year in an ESPN.com article that showed Rivers had more than a few issues when facing a blitz. In a five-game stretch from weeks 11-16, Rivers had a passer rating of 23.8 on plays when the Chargers' opponent blitzed. If Rivers had a long history of playing well, I might be able to overlook a late-season slump, but he has played well for only half of one season. I believe he needs to do more before being considered one of the league's great quarterbacks. Brett Favre Many of Favre's 2006 metrics were among the worst in the league. His 6.2 YPA put him in the company of Charlie Frye and Jason Campbell. His total of 18 bad decisions was tied for the fourth-most in the league, and his 62 combined interceptions and near interceptions was easily the most in the NFL, even surpassing the much-maligned Rex Grossman. Favre simply isn't anywhere near the quarterback he was even just three years ago. Others: Jon Kitna: Kitna gets a ton of credit for his strong leadership, but his 20 bad decisions ranked last in the league, and his 38 bad-decision points ranked next to last. Add in his nine lost fumbles last year and it is clear his turnovers and mistakes more than made up for his superb leadership skills. Trent Green: Green showed a lot of courage in coming back from a severe concussion last year, but his metrics after he returned were quite poor. His 6.5 YPA tied for 23rd in the league. His 60.4 success percentage was only slightly better than David Garrard's and was worse than Brad Johnson's. His 3.9 bad decision percentage was the 33rd-worst. The metrics indicate Green might not be the savior Dolphins fans are hoping he will be. Underrated Quarterbacks Marc Bulger I know that Bulger made the Pro Bowl last year, but I believe he still doesn't get his due as one of the NFL's best quarterbacks. His 7.5 YPA was the eighth-best in the league and his 92.9 passer rating was seventh-best. Bulger had the fourth-lowest bad-decision percentage and the fifth-lowest weighted bad-decision percentage. He also had the fifth-lowest interception/near interception percentage. That Bulger was able to post these numbers in a new offensive system, and without Mike Martz calling the plays, says a lot for his ability. J.P. Losman Losman might be the best deep ball quarterback in the NFL today. His 698 bomb passing yards were the second-most in the league. He also had the fifth-highest YPA at that depth level. It isn't just a high YPA level that makes Losman a great vertical passer. He also had zero bad decisions on his bomb passes. That total wasn't a statistical anomaly either, as Losman's 33 bomb pass throws were the fifth-most in that category. If Jason Peters can keep Losman's blindside protected this year as well as he did late last year, Losman should be able to do even better on long passes in 2007. Others: Chad Pennington: The reason Pennington qualifies for this list is that he is a much better vertical passer than people think. He ranked 15th and 12th in bomb and deep-pass YPA last year. Pennington's 9.8 YPA on deep out passes was also the seventh-highest figure in the league. These metrics prove Pennington is able to beat a defense even on the toughest passes a quarterback has to throw. Tony Romo: Romo was like Rivers in that his end-of-season performance tailed off, but his reputation seemed to take a much bigger hit than Rivers. This shouldn't have been the case, as Romo's end-of-season metrics were still among the best in the NFL. His 8.4 YPA was the highest in that category. Romo also had the second-highest success percentage and the highest SYPA rating. His way of measuring Success: YPA (Yards Per Attempt): A quick barometer of a quarterback/wide receiver/tight end's efficiency. Success Percentage: The percentage of plays a player does something successful with the ball. Successful plays include completions (for offensive players), incompletions (for defensive players) and penalty plays that go in the player's favor. SYPA (Success percentage X Yards Per Attempt): A metric that combines both success percentage and YPA in an effort to measure a player's overall effectiveness. Bad decisions: A quarterback is charged with a bad decision when he does something with the ball that either leads to, or nearly leads to, a turnover. The most common bad decisions are forcing passes into coverage or staring at receivers. Weighted bad decision percentage: Bad decisions are given point totals based on the amount of damage they cause. Weighted bad decisions are those point totals expressed as a percentage of total pass attempts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smizzy Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 BULLOCKS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECURB Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 He is underrated... good to see someone is smart enough to notice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gainzo Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 This is the "Football Scientist" bloke. I think we can all agree that the guys stats are suspect to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECURB Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 This is the "Football Scientist" bloke. I think we can all agree that the guys stats are suspect to say the least. He is a respected professional sports writer that watches every game and records multiple stats that most dont... His stats arent suspect... you just dont like him... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoFlaJets Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 don't worry ec-wait until he's being interviewed holding the Lombardi Trophy this February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smizzy Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 With a solid running game Chad can be a great QB. If we don't need his arm to win the game then he will most likely put us in a position to win the game each week. Without the run....the entire offense turns into a dink and dunk fest and he can not bring us back from behind with his arm. That said...TJ & LW run the **** out of the ball and well...this is SB caliber team if we can get past NE,INDY & SD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.I.MikeBleedsGreen Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 KC Joyner = Chad Pennington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoFlaJets Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 With a solid running game Chad can be a great QB. If we don't need his arm to win the game then he will most likely put us in a position to win the game each week. Without the run....the entire offense turns into a dink and dunk fest and he can not bring us back from behind with his arm. That said...TJ & LW run the **** out of the ball and well...this is SB caliber team if we can get past NE,INDY & SD no one can Smizzy-not in this day and age in the NFL-Derrick Blaylock and Kevan Barlow are nowhere near what we are going to have this year.We now have the best running attack in the division along with the 2nd best pass action QB in the game today...Chad is great at faking handoffs....GREAT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gainzo Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 I would like to see how KC Joyner quantifies his "stats" such as these from his take on Favre: His total of 18 bad decisions was tied for the fourth-most in the league, and his 62 combined interceptions and near interceptions was easily the most in the NFL What is a bad decision? What is a near interception? How can Favre have 18 bad decisions but 62 int's/near int's? Wouldn't throwing a pick or near pick be considered a bad decision? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECURB Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 I would like to see how KC Joyner quantifies his "stats" such as these from his take on Favre: What is a bad decision? What is a near interception? How can Favre have 18 bad decisions but 62 int's/near int's? Wouldn't throwing a pick or near pick be considered a bad decision? Tipped balls Im sure account for a lot... when forcing the ball when playing from behind it can cause close calls... but it doesnt make it a bad decision when your playing from behind and need scores.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gainzo Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 Tipped balls Im sure account for a lot... when forcing the ball when playing from behind it can cause close calls... but it doesnt make it a bad decision when your playing from behind and need scores.. That's all well and good but I can't take this guy seriously until I see what criteria he uses to create his "stats" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECURB Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 That's all well and good but I can't take this guy seriously until I see what criteria he uses to create his "stats" Game video... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gainzo Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 Game video... That doesn't answer my question. What is the definition of a bad decision or near int? Does KC know what play has been called and what the QB's reads are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECURB Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 That doesn't answer my question. What is the definition of a bad decision or near int? Does KC know what play has been called and what the QB's reads are? Its his expert opinion... so you dont like him... doesnt discredit the fact that he is a well respected expert on football... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gainzo Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 Its his expert opinion... so you dont like him... doesnt discredit the fact that he is a well respected expert on football... Opinion. That's all it is. I don't dislike the guy I just want to know what criteria he uses. He acts like all of his "stats" are fact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinnys025 Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 Ecurb and everyone who's a Pennington supporter, lets just agree on this. This year he is coming into his second year after injury, his second year under Mangini, has a GREAT (IMO) one two punch running game, and basically there are no more excuses for him. Can we agree that if he tanks or gets hurt this year that he will not ever bring us to a SB? I dont know about you guys, but this year is a make or break year for Pennyboy IMO. Show that you can put up those numbers you did before you got that contract. I want to see a pro bowl year this year. No more excuses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECURB Posted July 26, 2007 Share Posted July 26, 2007 Ecurb and everyone who's a Pennington supporter, lets just agree on this. This year he is coming into his second year after injury, his second year under Mangini, has a GREAT (IMO) one two punch running game, and basically there are no more excuses for him. Can we agree that if he tanks or gets hurt this year that he will not ever bring us to a SB? I dont know about you guys, but this year is a make or break year for Pennyboy IMO. Show that you can put up those numbers you did before you got that contract. I want to see a pro bowl year this year. No more excuses. I have already said this is a make or break year for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barton Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 I was unaware a 9.8 yard out pass is a deep out pattern. Silly me. These sabermetric idiots are spreading to football. Just great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StraightCash Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 A good QB makes the rest of his team better. The rest of the team makes Chad Pennington better. That is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gainzo Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Its his expert opinion... so you dont like him... doesnt discredit the fact that he is a well respected expert on football... Funny how he didn't mention Chads stellar 17 TD/16 INT's last year. I guess that "deep outs" are more important than throwing 16 picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECURB Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 I was unaware a 9.8 yard out pass is a deep out pattern. Silly me. These sabermetric idiots are spreading to football. Just great. Wasnt this explained to you already Barton... stop making a fool out of yourself and read up on what YPA means... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinnys025 Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 I have already said this is a make or break year for him. Really? So we agreed on something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Troll Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 I noticed no one quoted the JP Losman part. Most Penningtologists claim Losman sucks and couldn't carry Chadwick's tiny jock. You can't exactly use this article as an "I told you so" if it's also called YOU dead-wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ECURB Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 I noticed no one quoted the JP Losman part. Most Penningtologists claim Losman sucks and couldn't carry Chadwick's tiny jock. You can't exactly use this article as an "I told you so" if it's also called YOU dead-wrong. I will never admit a division rival has a good QB... Tom Brady sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai Jet Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 This is the "Football Scientist" bloke. I think we can all agree that the guys stats are suspect to say the least. Speak for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fastmover Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 A good QB makes the rest of his team better. The rest of the team makes Chad Pennington better. That is all. Thats why our team loses when chad is out, silly me i must be sniffing glue again. Semper Fi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sperm Edwards Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Thats why our team loses when chad is out, silly me i must be sniffing glue again. Semper Fi. Simply because Pennington is better than the likes of: 2005 version of Fiedler late-career version of Testaverde (in a WCO no less) 2005 version of Bollinger 2004 version of Carter (though he was 2-1; technically better than Chad's 8-5) does not mean he's all that. He's absolutely better than his Jets backups at those points in time. To interpret that as anyone other than Chad will be worse is a stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Troll Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Simply because Pennington is better than the likes of: 2005 version of Fiedler late-career version of Testaverde (in a WCO no less) 2005 version of Bollinger 2004 version of Carter (though he was 2-1; technically better than Chad's 8-5) does not mean he's all that. He's absolutely better than his Jets backups at those points in time. To interpret that as anyone other than Chad will be worse is a stretch. Quincy actually should have been 3-0, but he got Herm'd against Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boozer76 Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Come on, this is the same guy who said Pennington is the 7th best on deep outs. So I am now to believe that Pennington is amongst the top 10 in deep passes and deep outs? This guy's stat machine is terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barton Posted July 27, 2007 Share Posted July 27, 2007 Come on, this is the same guy who said Pennington is the 7th best on deep outs. So I am now to believe that Pennington is amongst the top 10 in deep passes and deep outs? This guy's stat machine is terrible. But he's an expert! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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