Scouts Inc.'s pick-by-pick first-round analysis

[jetfuel]

from ESPN Insider:

Video 6. New York Jets

The pick: Vernon Gholston, DE/OLB, Ohio State |

What he brings: No prospect at this or any other position in the draft has more upside than Gholston. The 6-foot-3, 266-pound defensive end ran a 4.67 40-yard dash, and showed excellent upper-body strength at the NFL scouting combine. He's also athletic enough to move to outside linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. However, he is a boom-or-bust prospect, especially this early. He's just not as consistent on film as a player with his talents should be.

How he fits: This is an interesting pick because the Jets signed Calvin Pace this offseason. The perfect fit for New York went No. 4, but Gholston is a tremendous pass-rusher who is very explosive. The Jets had trouble creating pressure last season and Gholston will help create pressure off the edge. His motor does not run consistently and he is a true boom-or-bust candidate based on our projections. Head coach Eric Mangini loves versatile athletes who allow the Jets to create mismatches, and Gholston does that. He comes in with the ability to rush the passer, but he is going to have to learn how to play on his feet as a linebacker in a 3-4 scheme. At Ohio State he traditionally played in a three-point stance and the transition may take some time.

30. New York Jets (from Green Bay)

The pick: Dustin Keller, TE, Purdue | Video

What he brings: No tight end in this year's class projected as a first-round pick in our opinion, making this pick a reach. One of the biggest knocks on Keller is that he's probably never going to develop into an excellent in-line blocker. Also, he doesn't have the frame to add a lot of bulk without sacrificing his greatest strength: his speed. However, Keller certainly has the athletic ability, versatility and burst to make an immediate impact as a receiver. He will be a tough matchup for opposing defenses; his size can cause enormous problems for defensive backs and most linebackers are going to have problems turning to run with him.

How he fits: The Jets are a team lacking playmakers, but Keller gives offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer a lot of versatility with his personnel groupings and matchups. He has good hands and gives them a threat in the passing game, unlike Chris Baker or Bubba Franks. Look for Schottenheimer to move him around and detach him in the formation. The Jets have spent heavily on offensive line and defense in the offseason, and now Keller will help them put points on the board.

[Sperm Edwards]

Pretty fair writeup, both pro and con.

[drago]

i'd like to know the difference between a number 6 pick TE versus a reach in late round 1 tight end. It seems to me Vernon Davis and Dustin Keller should be very comparable, neither blocked particularily well, both have their best asset of speed.

I'm guessing Davis ran a bit faster of a 40 time?

[BurnleyJet]

i'd like to know the difference between a number 6 pick TE versus a reach in late round 1 tight end. It seems to me Vernon Davis and Dustin Keller should be very comparable, neither blocked particularily well, both have their best asset of speed.

I'm guessing Davis ran a bit faster of a 40 time?

Yes an insain 4.38 for a T.E

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/profile.php?pyid=10927

Is the main reason he was taken at 6 Keller ran a 4.5 (40)

heres his numbers

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/profile.php?pyid=12570

Davis as better work out numbers, but Keller can catch is the main diffrence

[drago]

Yes an insain 4.38 for a T.E

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/profile.php?pyid=10927

Is the main reason he was taken at 6 Keller ran a 4.5 (40)

heres his numbers

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/profile.php?pyid=12570

Davis as better work out numbers, but Keller can catch is the main diffrence

I guess that is sort of my point. I understand that tenth of a second is faster but why did Jerry Rice always seem to pull away from defenders and ran just a decent 40 time? It's sort of funny to me that Davis was paid about 18 million more in guarantees over a tenth of a second. I'd be willing to bet he never once ran a 40 yard sprint during an actual game throughout his career with the 49ers.

I'd also bet that they become similar players, if not identical.

[Sperm Edwards]

I guess that is sort of my point. I understand that tenth of a second is faster but why did Jerry Rice always seem to pull away from defenders and ran just a decent 40 time? It's sort of funny to me that Davis was paid about 18 million more in guarantees over a tenth of a second. I'd be willing to bet he never once ran a 40 yard sprint during an actual game throughout his career with the 49ers.

I'd also bet that they become similar players, if not identical.

Finding significance in a tenth of a second in the 40 is idiotic, particularly for a TE. Clap your hands together twice as fast as you possibly can and that takes way more than 0.1 seconds. That is the difference in time only after running a full 40 yards.

[drago]

Finding significance in a tenth of a second in the 40 is idiotic, particularly for a TE. Clap your hands together twice as fast as you possibly can and that takes way more than 0.1 seconds. That is the difference in time only after running a full 40 yards.

Agreed. I watch quite a bit of football and remember reading a lot about Davis during the draft hype. I haven't read as much about Keller but from what know now they don't seem that different in their skill set. If anything Keller is much brighter, the only real difference is that scouts all agree he was second round talent.

To me scouts are the biggest bunch of sissies out there. Scouts don't give their opinions without extereme bias. No way in hell did every scout in the US think Reggie Bush was the best player coming out of that draft class. No way in hell was he even the best RB on the board in some of their eyes. Yet no scout would risk their job in saying "bush isn't that good" to their GM, although i'm sure the conversation was similar in Houston when they passed on him.

I guarantee more than a few scouts saw Bush's pro career for what it is...average. Scouts need to speak up on this crap, it's all group opinioned crap. Grow a pair, rank the players how you actually FEEL they should be ranked.

[Iowa Jetfan]

To me scouts are the biggest bunch of sissies out there. Scouts don't give their opinions without extereme bias. No way in hell did every scout in the US think Reggie Bush was the best player coming out of that draft class. No way in hell was he even the best RB on the board in some of their eyes. Yet no scout would risk their job in saying "bush isn't that good" to their GM, although i'm sure the conversation was similar in Houston when they passed on him.

I guarantee more than a few scouts saw Bush's pro career for what it is...average. Scouts need to speak up on this crap, it's all group opinioned crap. Grow a pair, rank the players how you actually FEEL they should be ranked.

One thing to consider is that the scouts we as non-NFL management types receive information from are usually the guys who got fired from their NFL jobs. Its next to impossible to know what is really going within an organization regarding their opinions of certain players, especially with all that pre-draft hoopla that goes on.

[drago]

One thing to consider is that the scouts we as non-NFL management types receive information from are usually the guys who got fired from their NFL jobs. Its next to impossible to know what is really going within an organization regarding their opinions of certain players, especially with all that pre-draft hoopla that goes on.

That's a valid point. I was thinking further about the Reggie Bush pre draft shinanigans. I'd really like to know where Pittsburgh, New England or Chicago had him rated. Those teams have always been considered 'pound the rock' style teams and i can't imagine any of them wanting Bush over a guy like lendale white (minus the getting fat at or around draft time).

[Barton]

Kellers 3 cone drill was insane. He's gonna be tough on LBs and explosive when he gets the ball in his hands.

[drago]

Kellers 3 cone drill was insane. He's gonna be tough on LBs and explosive when he gets the ball in his hands.

again, another valid point.

Keller has a great cone time...

Welker had a great cone time...

Welker had the most receptions in the NFL and was an absolute nightmare to guard in the slot AND went undrafted!(yes i know moss helped significantly).

Why aren't things like the cone drill starting to make headway? Why are we consistantly using the same meaningless time as the 'end all' statistic. It's the same statistic that made DMC a lock to go top five and i still don't think he's better than mendenhall who went 25.

What the **** is wrong with these scouts?

[Ranger]

The only problem I have with the draft hype is calling a player a reach. He's a reach because he was rated as 2nd round talent but went in the 1st, yet in reality it was only about 8 picks. also, if a team thinks this guy is the next great thing and he becomes it, how is that a reach no matter what round the guy goes in? (and I am in no way saying Keller is the next great thing). It just means the teams scouts and coaches differed in their assessment of the player than Kiper or whoever else is rating the player for said network.

[aec4]

Yes an insain 4.38 for a T.E

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/profile.php?pyid=10927

Is the main reason he was taken at 6 Keller ran a 4.5 (40)

heres his numbers

http://www.nfldraftscout.com/ratings/profile.php?pyid=12570

Davis as better work out numbers, but Keller can catch is the main diffrence

Davis was the Gholston of his class.... a mid-late 1st round talent who ran an insane (note the spelling) 40 time and shot up the draft board.

[PeterNorth09]

I guess that is sort of my point. I understand that tenth of a second is faster but why did Jerry Rice always seem to pull away from defenders and ran just a decent 40 time? It's sort of funny to me that Davis was paid about 18 million more in guarantees over a tenth of a second. I'd be willing to bet he never once ran a 40 yard sprint during an actual game throughout his career with the 49ers.

I'd also bet that they become similar players, if not identical.

Rice had the endurance my friend. Late in the 4th quarter Rice was still running top speed while everyone else slowed down a few steps. That and he ran great routes and had phenomenal hands.

I still think Vernon Davis is going to be one of the best TE's in the league. His biggest problem is Alex Smith. Smith is an awful QB. Davis's numbers improved significantly last season even with Smith stinking up the joint. Plus he's a better blocker than people give him credit for.

[drago]

Rice had the endurance my friend. Late in the 4th quarter Rice was still running top speed while everyone else slowed down a few steps. That and he ran great routes and had phenomenal hands.

I still think Vernon Davis is going to be one of the best TE's in the league. His biggest problem is Alex Smith. Smith is an awful QB. Davis's numbers improved significantly last season even with Smith stinking up the joint. Plus he's a better blocker than people give him credit for.

Rice did have great endurance. Do you honestly think endurance came into the equation at all when teams were looking to draft him? I doubt it. What i do see is teams taking shots in the dark at guys with terrible work ethics and even worse character.

I understand there are some great wide receivers in the game that have terrible attitudes; Moss, Johnson and Owens. In the case of Moss and Owens they outstayed their welcome on two occassions or more but their production allowed them to last as long as they did. With Johnson you are only seeing his bitching become an issue in year 7 or 8. Also, in each instance none of these guys have won a Super Bowl (although Moss was more than close on two occassions). So why the gambles in round one for M. Williams, C. Rodgers, F Mitchell...? Why don't scouts/GM's start reading the situation and see what winning teams do. They build high character then draft or aquire these great athletes later on.

Scouts need to learn who the main-stay WR's are in the league, McCardle, Coles, Galloway, Driver, Glenn...there is a reason these guys stick around so long, great work ethics, great hands, and generally greatattitudes (minus coles).

Maybe i'm wrong, maybe it really is that hard to be able to tell weather or not a player has work ethic or not in a weekend visit before the draft. Until they can figure that out I'll continue to think Scouts and GM's are morons if they can't follow simple trends.

[raffyD]

Davis was the Gholston of his class.... a mid-late 1st round talent who ran an insane (note the spelling) 40 time and shot up the draft board.

Not true. Gholston did a little more than just run a fast 40 to shoot up draft boards.

I don't remember exactly but I believe his strength, vertical and quickness measurables were through the roof. In fact, I think he out benched the #1 overall pick who is a lineman.

[drago]

Not true. Gholston did a little more than just run a fast 40 to shoot up draft boards.

I don't remember exactly but I believe his strength, vertical and quickness measurables were through the roof. In fact, I think he out benched the #1 overall pick who is a lineman.

He was second in all linemen to Jake Long in bench press. You are right though, probably top five in every category for linemen...from what i remember.

[aec4]

Not true. Gholston did a little more than just run a fast 40 to shoot up draft boards.

I don't remember exactly but I believe his strength, vertical and quickness measurables were through the roof. In fact, I think he out benched the #1 overall pick who is a lineman.

Either way... you just make my point stronger.

He was a mid-late first rounder until he became a workout warrior.

[#27TheDominator]

I disagree with everybody.

First of all, a tenth of a second is a huge difference. You don't think it's significant? Remember that kid that was a rocket and killing everybody in every sport in elementary school? He was probably only a tenth or two faster than you.

Second, Davis was a tenth and a half faster than Keller. If you don't think a tenth is significant/ I do, I think a tenth and a half is very significant. Davis also was a hell of a lot more than just faster. He outweighs and is taller than Keller. Did seven more reps on the bench and his short shuttle was only .03 slower. That's three hundreths which I assume none of you find significant?

I also do not believe that Gholston shot up draft boards. Most people I saw had him in top 10 and almost all in the top 15 prior to the combine. Everybody was convinced that he'd have a killer combine and I don't think any of his numbers were shocking. The guy holds Ohio St. all time sack record, he's not exactly nothing but a workout warrior. He may still be a bust, but I bet all those ****heads that don't lift like him or run that fast are a hell of a lot more likely to bust. David Ball had a lot of catches in college, why does he suck? Peter Warrick?

[Sperm Edwards]

I disagree with everybody.

First of all, a tenth of a second is a huge difference. You don't think it's significant? Remember that kid that was a rocket and killing everybody in every sport in elementary school? He was probably only a tenth or two faster than you.

Second, Davis was a tenth and a half faster than Keller. If you don't think a tenth is significant/ I do, I think a tenth and a half is very significant. Davis also was a hell of a lot more than just faster. He outweighs and is taller than Keller. Did seven more reps on the bench and his short shuttle was only .03 slower. That's three hundreths which I assume none of you find significant?

I also do not believe that Gholston shot up draft boards. Most people I saw had him in top 10 and almost all in the top 15 prior to the combine. Everybody was convinced that he'd have a killer combine and I don't think any of his numbers were shocking. The guy holds Ohio St. all time sack record, he's not exactly nothing but a workout warrior. He may still be a bust, but I bet all those ****heads that don't lift like him or run that fast are a hell of a lot more likely to bust. David Ball had a lot of catches in college, why does he suck? Peter Warrick?

At best, that tenth is only significant if all other things are equal (reaction times, how quickly they cut, etc).

Maybe Peter Warrick and David Ball suck because they suck, not because of their speed. Because Arizona's duo are both slower. I think Boldin has like 4.7 speed & Fitz was I think 4.63 himself.

[BP]

I disagree with everybody.

First of all, a tenth of a second is a huge difference. You don't think it's significant? Remember that kid that was a rocket and killing everybody in every sport in elementary school? He was probably only a tenth or two faster than you.

Second, Davis was a tenth and a half faster than Keller. If you don't think a tenth is significant/ I do, I think a tenth and a half is very significant. Davis also was a hell of a lot more than just faster. He outweighs and is taller than Keller. Did seven more reps on the bench and his short shuttle was only .03 slower. That's three hundreths which I assume none of you find significant?

You can't measure game speed. Jerry Rice ran a 4.67 40 coming out of college in 1985, but nobody could catch him in the NFL, he would out run guys and double coverage consistently. same thing with Chrebet, he had a slow 40 time, but when he got a step on somebody he would take it to the house.

Now measure that. it's my turn to disagree and argue with you.

[Ryno the Jet]

Fitz was I think 4.63 himself.

Speaking of insignificant tenths, it was a 4.53 for the record. Just sayin'...

[#27TheDominator]

The 40 time (or any of the other combine tests) is not the be all end all, however it cannot be discounted. IMO "game speed" is overrated.. Maybe in the past when the 40 didn't mean $$$, but now with that payday on the line, if you can run, you'd better pull a good one. If you don't maybe you aren't a clutch guy. There are obviously other things that can make a slower guy successful. The ability to cut without tipping the DB, getting the DB to lean the wrong way just before your move and other things may be more important than straight line speed. Give me two players that can do that and I'll take the one that's a tenth faster every time.

Jerry Rice was awesome. That doesn't mean that every slow piece of **** (Jarrett, Bowman, Warrick) will be. IMO Warrick and Ball didn't flat suck. They were great in college, but couldn't adjust to the faster NFL game. Particularly Warrick since he was a speed guy. Some of those guys may have decent NFL careers, but they will not be the monsters they could be if they could run and upside is very significant in draft position. You can teach a lot of things, but not speed. Boldin was a dog at the combine, but he ran a 4.59 at his pro day. He's also 220 lbs.

[uart]

Grow a pair, rank the players how you actually FEEL they should be ranked.

The draft isn't necessarily designed (nor does it operate) to select players in order of how "good" they are. You take them based on a) how much you want them and how much you think the other teams want them.

If the Jets really felt that Keller was a must-have, and thought that the Giants were about to pick him at the end of Round 1, then the trade-up was good.

I might think that Player A is the best player in the draft, but if nobody else knows he exists, I can wait until the late rounds to draft him, and concentrate on more in-demand players up front.

Think Colston. Great late-round pickup, but if you picked him in the 1st round, regardless of how good he ends up, you wasted a pick.

[Sperm Edwards]

Speaking of insignificant tenths, it was a 4.53 for the record. Just sayin'...

lol. I'm sure you're right.

But then there are guys who suck who ran two tenths faster.

Straightaway speed in shorts on a fast track with no defenders (and no football) doesn't hurt any. But it's overrated.

I think Plaxico Burress timed at under 4.4 at one point; he's a good receiver but doesn't play anywhere near that type of speed and I can't remember the last person who thought of him as a burner.

[drago]

The draft isn't necessarily designed (nor does it operate) to select players in order of how "good" they are. You take them based on a) how much you want them and how much you think the other teams want them.

If the Jets really felt that Keller was a must-have, and thought that the Giants were about to pick him at the end of Round 1, then the trade-up was good.

I might think that Player A is the best player in the draft, but if nobody else knows he exists, I can wait until the late rounds to draft him, and concentrate on more in-demand players up front.

Think Colston. Great late-round pickup, but if you picked him in the 1st round, regardless of how good he ends up, you wasted a pick.

I get what you are saying, but what i'm trying to say is that not all scouts agree as the media would have you believe, as to who the real top talent is. This year seemed pretty cut and dry but in years past having all scouts rave about one particular player seems to me that they are all just following trends and that they don't use their own judgment.

[ZachEY]

Either way... you just make my point stronger.

He was a mid-late first rounder until he became a workout warrior.

There were mock drafts projecting him top 5 long before the combine.

Gholston had 14 sacks, and absolutely manhandled the #1 overall pick in their year end meeting.

He's by no means a workout warrior, he just happens to be a monster.

[PeterNorth09]

lol. I'm sure you're right.

But then there are guys who suck who ran two tenths faster.

Straightaway speed in shorts on a fast track with no defenders (and no football) doesn't hurt any. But it's overrated.

I think Plaxico Burress timed at under 4.4 at one point; he's a good receiver but doesn't play anywhere near that type of speed and I can't remember the last person who thought of him as a burner.

Plaxico has size. I remeber watchihng the Jets-Steelers playoff game in Kuwait years ago watching the Steelers pick on Barrett with the taller Plax. That's why I wanted the Jets to draft Leonard Pope and James Hardy. The taller you are the better chacne you have at those jump balls.

Speed is important but if you have ridiculous height for an NFL receiver (6'5 or above) you're gonna make plays.

[BroadwayJ667]

so keller can't block, how hard is it to do a crackdown block on a safety. I haven't played tightend in 4 years and still know how to knock a safety out and into the line.

This is gonna be a great pick, he's gonna get tired of the negative critiques PFQ.

the only blocking they are gonna ask him to do is hit a safety when there is a potential for 8 in the box, and if his speed i what they say that will prevent most opportunities for 8 in the box because he'll just streak down the middle with single to no coverage

[JohnnyLV]

The 40 time (or any of the other combine tests) is not the be all end all, however it cannot be discounted. IMO "game speed" is overrated.. Maybe in the past when the 40 didn't mean $$$, but now with that payday on the line, if you can run, you'd better pull a good one. If you don't maybe you aren't a clutch guy. There are obviously other things that can make a slower guy successful. The ability to cut without tipping the DB, getting the DB to lean the wrong way just before your move and other things may be more important than straight line speed. Give me two players that can do that and I'll take the one that's a tenth faster every time.

Jerry Rice was awesome. That doesn't mean that every slow piece of **** (Jarrett, Bowman, Warrick) will be. IMO Warrick and Ball didn't flat suck. They were great in college, but couldn't adjust to the faster NFL game. Particularly Warrick since he was a speed guy. Some of those guys may have decent NFL careers, but they will not be the monsters they could be if they could run and upside is very significant in draft position. You can teach a lot of things, but not speed. Boldin was a dog at the combine, but he ran a 4.59 at his pro day. He's also 220 lbs.

Game speed is a gazillion times more important than 40 time.

[#27TheDominator]

Game speed is a gazillion times more important than 40 time.

It's true that how fast you are in a game is important, but what the **** is game speed? You are fast or you are not. Do you honestly think there are these hidden gems out there unable to run fast in any of the tests that suddenly become Michael Johnson when the whistle blows?

[tparich]

It's true that how fast you are in a game is important, but what the **** is game speed? You are fast or you are not. Do you honestly think there are these hidden gems out there unable to run fast in any of the tests that suddenly become Michael Johnson when the whistle blows?

I always saw game speed as a better measure of a player but agre that there is no official way to gauge it.

Would love to make all the players be in full pads and run a few laps and then get hit a few times and then still in full pads run the 40 and get that time. My guess is a lot of the fastest guys would not have the best times at this point.

[Sperm Edwards]

I always saw game speed as a better measure of a player but agre that there is no official way to gauge it.

Would love to make all the players be in full pads and run a few laps and then get hit a few times and then still in full pads run the 40 and get that time. My guess is a lot of the fastest guys would not have the best times at this point.

At the very least, they should be running all those speed/agility drills (40yd, 3-cone, vertical, etc) with full pads on. Only exception might be a bench-press. What is really learned about on-field speed when it's measured wearing gym shorts and a tank top?

Some players' 40-time in football pads is pretty close to their combine time. Some guys are much slower in football pads. And some guys like Lawrence Maroney & Chad Jackson should only be timed wearing maxi pads.