Stephen Hill needs to have an AJ Green type of impact for the Jets to be a playoff team

[slats]

[*]The Jets don't have any RB on the roster who gives them any kind of breakaway ability.

[*]The Jets lack depth at RB: McKnight is nothing special.

Joe McKnight has breakaway ability. He led the NFL last year in KORs with a 31.6 yard average. The second best returner in the league was four yards behind him. People will say that Westoff always gets a lot out of his returners, and it's true, but McKnight is the best returner he's had in the last decade (and I didn't bother looking further back than that). That includes an overpaid Bill by the name of Brad Smith.

I'm looking forward to seeing what he does in an expanded role on offense this year.

[Matt39]

Joe McKnight has breakaway ability. He led the NFL last year in KORs with a 31.6 yard average. The second best returner in the league was four yards behind him. People will say that Westoff always gets a lot out of his returners, and it's true, but McKnight is the best returner he's had in the last decade (and I didn't bother looking further back than that). That includes an overpaid Bill by the name of Brad Smith.

I'm looking forward to seeing what he does in an expanded role on offense this year.

For sure. If McKnight can become a legit threat as a 3rd down back and extend drives...I like our chances. We need unproven guys to step up this season in a big way.

[Stonehands]

He certainly has to have the impact that Plaxico had in the red zone. We were one of the best red zone teams and then let one of our big guys go. Hill has to be able to at least fill that role.

[SayNoToDMC]

He certainly has to have the impact that Plaxico had in the red zone. We were one of the best red zone teams and then let one of our big guys go. Hill has to be able to at least fill that role.

Didn't you hear? Tebow is our new red zone threat

[HDKostempski]

I think attempting to be a run-first team with the Jets current personnel is a bad choice:

• The OL, especially on the right side where most teams like to run, simply isn't good enough to consistently open holes for RBs with the limitations that the Jets RBs have.
  
• Shonn Greene's limitations are numerous: lack of speed, agility, vision, ability to break tackles, etc. He isn't good enough to be a starter on many teams. He essentially gets the yards the OL gets him, but not much more very often. With the kind of OL the Jets have, they need a runner who make yards on his own and that's not Greene.
  
• The Jets don't have any RB on the roster who gives them any kind of breakaway ability.
  
• The Jets lack depth at RB: McKnight is nothing special. Powell has shown nothing and barely got on the field last season. Ganaway is a 6th rounder. If a team is going to go run first, then they need some decent RBs to do it.
  
• The running game would be much more successful with a sound passing game that sets up the run. However, Ryan and Sparano seem to want to turn the clock back 30 years when teams "ran to set up the pass". That's unlikely to work with today's sophisticated defenses.
  
• Sanchez's tendency to throw short and to rely on his check-downs rather than look downfield is going to really limit the Jets offense, especially the running game, because teams will put 8 or 9 in the box and dare Sanchez to throw downfield, gambling that he won't. Unless Sanchez changes the habits he developed last season, this will continue to be a big problem.
  
• Gimmicks only work so long, and all this talk about incorporating Tebow into the offense as a run/throw threat is just smoke and mirrors. It will work on occasion, but it's NOT going to work a dozen times a game.
  

This post sucks and you dont know what you're talking about.

Really? Well, then, refute my points.

What I think you really mean is that you don't want anyone intruding on your fantasy that somehow reviving an offensive game plan from 30 years ago is going to work in 2012. The Jets don't have the personnel to be a run-first team. Heck, even run-first teams like Baltimore and San Francisco pass more than half the time.

[dbatesman]

Heck, even run-first teams like Baltimore and San Francisco pass more than half the time.

Is that true?

[Larz]

the real difference maker ?

demario davis

he will cover the TE's

and it will be glorious

[JiFtheOracle]

Really? Well, then, refute my points.

What I think you really mean is that you don't want anyone intruding on your fantasy that somehow reviving an offensive game plan from 30 years ago is going to work in 2012. The Jets don't have the personnel to be a run-first team. Heck, even run-first teams like Baltimore and San Francisco pass more than half the time.

2011 Pass Attempts

Alex Smith - 445

Joe Flacco - 542

Mark Sanchez - 543

[slats]

Heck, even run-first teams like Baltimore and San Francisco pass more than half the time.

Ravens aren't a run first team anymore with Flacco The '9ers and Texans both ran more than they threw the ball last year, and both teams made it to the playoffs.

Jets ran the ball more than they threw it in '09 and '10, and made it to the AFC Championship both years.

Not that I actually expect the Jets to run more than pass this year, but there's certainly recent precedent for success.

[JiFtheOracle]

Is that true?

Trolls that have no clue what they are talking about are awesome.

I wish we had more.

[bitonti]

aj green like impact is alot to ask of this player, who is coming out of the triple option offense that was state of the art 70 years ago. I predict Hill will be a good player, make a few deep grabs, some jump balls, block well, but this will be a redshirt year for him. I predict Schiliens will win that job, at least coming out of camp. Hill doesn't really know the NFL route tree and it takes years to learn.

[Matt39]

aj green like impact is alot to ask of this player, who is coming out of the triple option offense that was state of the art 70 years ago. I predict Hill will be a good player, make a few deep grabs, some jump balls, block well, but this will be a redshirt year for him. I predict Schiliens will win that job, at least coming out of camp. Hill doesn't really know the NFL route tree and it takes years to learn.

expect Tannenbaum to be looking for work next season then.

[JiFtheOracle]

expect Tannenbaum to be looking for work next season then.

Because a 2nd round draft pick isnt going to have a big year?

[Matt39]

Because a 2nd round draft pick isnt going to have a big year?

No, because the offense is desperate for playmakers. And if Hill can't be that immediately...the offense is going to suck really bad.

its the same offense essentially from last year minus Plax and LT. If Hill and McKnight cant be better than what those two were last season...Tannenbaum will be gone. Last years offense was very hard to watch.

[billo83]

No, because the offense is desperate for playmakers. And if Hill can't be that immediately...the offense is going to suck really bad.

its the same offense essentially from last year minus Plax and LT. If Hill and McKnight cant be better than what those two were last season...Tannenbaum will be gone. Last years offense was very hard to watch.

you're forgetting a key subtraction from last year in Schotty. There's no way the offense doesn't improve on that fact alone. No, Tanny isn't going anywhere next season. It's obvious how much Woody likes him, & it would take at least a couple of losing seasons for that to be considered.

[JiFtheOracle]

No, because the offense is desperate for playmakers. And if Hill can't be that immediately...the offense is going to suck really bad.

its the same offense essentially from last year minus Plax and LT. If Hill and McKnight cant be better than what those two were last season...Tannenbaum will be gone. Last years offense was very hard to watch.

I thinks its a little ridiculous to put the fate of a GM on the success of a 2nd round pick who WR apparently needs to play like a top 5 pick for the team to be successful. If he's fired after this season, which I highly doubt, I'm sure there would be a multitude of reasons and Stephen Hill would have very little to do with that decision. My guess would be trading up for a 5th round talent QB with the 5th overall pick would carry a little more weight. Its not like he hasnt tried to build around the QB.

I think Hill can match Plax's #'s. Its not asking much. 45 for 600. The 8 TD's might hefty for him, but I think those will be distributed around the rest of the offense. Plus, Hill's immediate presence alone changes the way you have to defend the Jets. His speed and size will be very real and something they havent had in a long time. I'm just praying Schillens can help in the dept too.

At the end of the day, its all on Mark Sanchez. Not a 2nd round rookie WR. If Mark takes the next step, the Jets are going to be really good and all these guys you say suck, will look completely different.

[JiFtheOracle]

you're forgetting a key subtraction from last year in Schotty. There's no way the offense doesn't improve on that fact alone. No, Tanny isn't going anywhere next season. It's obvious how much Woody likes him, & it would take at least a couple of losing seasons for that to be considered.

I think the new offense will help. Schotty's offense was philosophically flawed. You dont compliment a power running team with a short quick passing game. Its way too easy to defend because its shrinks the field. I'm hoping the power run game coupled with a vertical passing attack and a couple of guys who can actually get behind a defense will help. If Sanchez can execute, the offense should be able to score enough points for this defense to do its thing.

[T0mShane]

I think Hill can match Plax's #'s. Its not asking much. 45 for 600.

Holmes was lucky to crack those numbers last year, and the offense is going to be more run-heavy this year. If Hill is getting 45 catches, what are Holmes and Keller going to get? 90?

[Bleedin Green]

No, because the offense is desperate for playmakers. And if Hill can't be that immediately...the offense is going to suck really bad.

its the same offense essentially from last year minus Plax and LT. If Hill and McKnight cant be better than what those two were last season...Tannenbaum will be gone. Last years offense was very hard to watch.

I get what you're saying, but that's assuming all else being equal, which is a dangerous assumption. Of course that's not to say that this team is going to drastically improve on offense, but when you consider how many young players there are on the team, it wouldn't be crazy to think there could be some improvement from existing players before even looking at the new ones. The most obvious being that if Sanchez improves by any significant amount this year, that makes a world of difference. I would agree that there probably needs to be someone making up for lost production, but to think that it has to be the two most direct replacements individually taking on that task or the Jets are doomed is a tad extreme. Even if Greene does not play even slightly better than last year, and is given no greater of the workload at all (which I would be shocked if he wasn't, especially given his contract status) what we're really looking at to account for the lost production of LT's departure is a combination of all of McKnight, Powell, Ganaway and yes, even Tebow. At WR, to replace the Burress you have the acquisition of guys like Hill and Schilens (and technically, White as well), but also what is sure to be increased production from Kerley (who, one can argue, was the Jets best WR by years end, given Holmes horrendous play at the end of the season), or even the possibility of getting something out of a number of young guys they've had in backup spots or the PS (McWhite, Turner, etc).

None of this is to say that any of these are particularly great options, but I don't think that, outside of LT's receiving ability at HB, either of the guys the Jets lost were either last year, and their production had more to do with them being there and getting the opportunities than anything else. I'm not sure it'll be so impossible to replace that, whether it's with one single play or a whole combination of them. At the very least, the Jets should be able to get one of these guys to provide some sort of deep threat this season, which will already be a benefit over last year, considering that's something the Jets were completely without. I'm not trying to make it seem like the Jets have all world talent on offense, far from it, I just don't think it's all that unlikely that the Jets are at least as good as last year and while that may have been pretty crappy, it was good enough to have them in the playoff hunt into a late season collapse. In the end though, it will come down to the play of the QB, and I really doubt the lack of Burress and LT that will be the determining factor in whether or not Sanchez gets his crap together.

[Bleedin Green]

Holmes was lucky to crack those numbers last year, and the offense is going to be more run-heavy this year. If Hill is getting 45 catches, what are Holmes and Keller going to get? 90?

Holmes was ****ing awful last year.

[T0mShane]

Holmes was ****ing awful last year.

True, but he's still the number one this year. I think, realistically, Holmes and Keller get 60-ish, then McKnight, Hill, Kerley and Schilens divide what's left. 40 catches would be a lot for any of them.

[JiFtheOracle]

Holmes was lucky to crack those numbers last year, and the offense is going to be more run-heavy this year. If Hill is getting 45 catches, what are Holmes and Keller going to get? 90?

Keller - 70

Holmes - 70

Hill - 45

Kerley - 40

Schilens - 35

McKnight - 25

Greene - 15

[T0mShane]

Keller - 70

Holmes - 70

Hill - 45

Kerley - 40

Schilens - 35

McKnight - 25

Greene - 15

Are we bringing in Kurt Warner and Mike Martz?

[Greensince69]

Forget the catches, if green gets 1800 - 2000 yards rushing we are in the hunt again. He does not have to be a breakaway back, just a sledge hammer, 3 - 4 yards a carry. Yes its old time football but if you dont have a Naga or dfat to stop the run, and I think we can take dfat out of the game, punnshing football can work on todays lighter faster teams. Get them to start cheating then throw it over the top. THey fall back to defend you pound again, ground out time of possession and keep the ball out of thier hands. I have been watching football for over 35 years and I know its cyclical. Air attacks like the packers are deja vu to air corryal and archie manning. Ground and pound can work again becuase defenses are set up to stop the pass not the run, Who could stop the bus or riggins right now? Yo don't need the game breaker, you the the line breaker. Keep thier defense on the field get them tired and your defense rested. Old time football 101.

[Bleedin Green]

True, but he's still the number one this year. I think, realistically, Holmes and Keller get 60-ish, then McKnight, Hill, Kerley and Schilens divide what's left. 40 catches would be a lot for any of them.

That's probably a fair point. Although if I had to guess, given the manner he'll probably be used, he could probably come close to Plax's receiving yards number without having nearly as many receptions. And like I said earlier, I also think it's going to be a manner of the production getting spread out amongst numerous players, not just one, as most notably in addition to Hill, you'll have Schilens and what is sure to be increased production from Kerley.

[slats]

Keller - 70

Holmes - 70

Hill - 45

Kerley - 40

Schilens - 35

McKnight - 25

Greene - 15

Are we bringing in Kurt Warner and Mike Martz?

That's 300 completions, last year Sanchez had 308.

[slats]

No, because the offense is desperate for playmakers. And if Hill can't be that immediately...the offense is going to suck really bad.

its the same offense essentially from last year minus Plax and LT. If Hill and McKnight cant be better than what those two were last season...Tannenbaum will be gone. Last years offense was very hard to watch.

Tannenbaum isn't going anywhere until Woody is ready to clean house. He's not firing Tannenbaum and keeping Rex.

[Matt39]

Forget the catches, if green gets 1800 - 2000 yards rushing we are in the hunt again.

[Matt39]

Tannenbaum isn't going anywhere until Woody is ready to clean house. He's not firing Tannenbaum and keeping Rex.

More I think about it, you are probably right.

Both Bradway and Tannenbaum both should be gone imo if Sanchez stinks again, this draft busts and if Duccase is out of football bad.The amount of misses and letting picks go has caught up to this team and we don't have a ring to show for it.

Tannenbaum seems to be in over his head from a talent evaluation standpoint. He just looks like he's working hard. I have no idea how Bradway is still employed. When he was the GM he wouldnt even pretend to be working hard. He'd be somewhere in Orlando when the first day of FA started and we'd have to hear LimoLady tell us how great of a father he is.