Tom Brady's playoff record if looked at in reverse

[Jetsfan80]

Found this to be a pretty interesting, albeit somewhat pointless, exercise.

Based on his playoff performances since 2006, Brady has basically been a great regular season QB who leaves a lot on the table when the postseason arrives. If not for the Super Bowl rings accumulated early in his career, wouldn't we be comparing him to "choker" Matt Ryan right now?

http://www.grantland...e-championships

You in Reverse

When discussing the clutch records of athletes like Matt Ryan and LeBron James in the past, I've brought up the idea of looking at Tom Brady's playoff record in reverse chronological order to highlight just how much of our opinions on athletes can be defined by what they do early in the "big moments" of their career. Just for fun, since we're all trying to figure out what this round of playoffs means for the legacies of guys like Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Peyton Manning, let's actually go through year-by-year and see what opinions might have cropped up with regard to Tom Brady if we flipped his 13-year career on its head. I promise that I will only be as jaundiced in the descriptions as most people would be about the likes of Ryan and Manning. You can play along with his playoff game log here.

2012

Record: 1-1

Career-to-date: 1-1

Brady makes his playoff debut and easily dispatches the Texans at home, but despite the fact that his Patriots are heavy home favorites against the Ravens, New England loses when they fail to produce in the red zone. Brady shows his inability to handle pressure situations when he mismanages the clock at the end of the first half and has to settle for a field goal, a problem that should hopefully go away when he matures. The Patriots have a shot late in the game, but an ill-timed Brady interception² puts New England's title hopes to rest.

2011

Record: 2-1

Career-to-date: 3-2

Although Brady takes a leap forward and makes his first Super Bowl, his performance during the playoffs leaves a bit to be desired. Brady runs up his stats against the lowly Broncos and Tim Tebow, throwing for six touchdowns and 363 yards. In the AFC Championship Game, Brady throws two picks against the Ravens and posts a passer rating of 57.5, but his defense bails him out with the famous strip of Lee Evans in the end zone and the Billy Cundiff missed field goal. And despite a stretch of hot play in the second quarter, when he sets a consecutive completions record, Brady comes up short when his team needs him most in the second half, failing to connect with Wes Welker on a long would-be touchdown and failing to protect a lead inside four minutes of the fourth quarter. Brady almost literally hands Eli Manning and the Giants the Super Bowl.

2010

Record: 0-1

Career-to-date: 3-3

In a shocking upset, Brady's Patriots lose as 9.5-point home favorites to the Jets, who befuddle Brady while sacking him five times and forcing an early interception to set the tone. It's Brady's second playoff loss as a heavy home favorite in three years.

2009

Record: 0-1

Career-to-date: 3-4

It's another crushing loss for Brady, who appears to have never recovered after blowing the lead in the Super Bowl and failing to hit Welker with the game on the line. He turns over the ball four times, including three times on the first four drives, as the Patriots fall to 2-3 at home in the playoffs under Brady.

2007

Record: 2-1

Career-to-date: 5-5

The ultimate regular-season superstar comes up short yet again on the big stage. After a stunning 16-0 season earns Brady his first MVP award, a mediocre playoff run ends in failure for the Patriots. Sure, Brady beats up on the AFC South at home, as he throws for 262 yards and three touchdowns against the Jaguars, but what happens when the competition gets tougher? He throws three picks against the Chargers in the conference championship and only wins because he's playing a guy on a torn ACL. And while Brady manages to finally beat the Giants for the first time in Week 17, he still can't beat them when it really counts, as the perfect team falls just short. Brady can only muster a measly 5.5 yards per attempt as he endlessly checks down and scores just 14 points.

2006

Record: 2-1

Career-to-date: 7-6

Can Tom Brady ever beat a Manning brother? First, it was Eli. Now, it's big brother Peyton getting into the act, as the Colts launch a dramatic comeback in the AFC Championship Game to produce a 38-34 victory. Again, Brady beats up on the league's weaklings before playing worse in each successive game; he throws for 212 yards and two scores against the Jets, but then has another three-pick game against the Chargers in a contest where the Patriots only pull the game out after the Chargers try to return Brady's final pick deep in the fourth quarter and Troy Brown manages to strip the ball loose. In that AFC Championship Game, Brady fumbles a snap into the end zone that's recovered for a touchdown — wouldn't a clutch player be able to hold onto a snap? He also gets a pick-six to eventually go up 21-6 heading into halftime, but the Patriots blow a 15-point lead and lose when Brady fails to come through with a lead on third-and-4 inside of three minutes, giving the ball to Manning and setting up a game-winning score. Is he ever going to have a big drive when his team really needs it?

2005

Record: 1-1

Career-to-date: 8-7

Yawn. The book on Tom Brady's already been written. Sure, he throws for 201 yards and three picks against the Jaguars at home in an early-round victory. Who doesn't beat up on the weaklings of the AFC South? When he has to travel on the road to play the Broncos, though, Brady puts up an empty 341 yards as he throws two picks, including one in the Denver end zone that Champ Bailey returns 99 yards to the 1-yard line on a drive that would have given New England the lead. The Patriots never recover.

At this point, Brady's playoff reputation is something resembling Peyton Manning. He's the guy who beats up on weak links and never shows up when his team really needs him. He's got various maladies: He can't beat the Giants or can't beat a Manning brother, he chokes when his team is a huge favorite at home, he can't produce a drive to kill off a game, he's distracted by his model wife. In what approximates a full season, Brady's line is good, but not great: 363-583 (62.3 percent completion percentage), 3,998 passing yards, 31 touchdowns, 19 interceptions. That's too many picks for a guy who averages only 10 interceptions per year. Antsy New England fans call for Bill Belichick's head because they want a head coach who has proven he can win Super Bowls.

And yet, despite the fact that you "know" Tom Brady, that he's the guy who can't come up with the big win, that he's just another quarterback who looks better in fantasy football than at the helm in the real thing, Tom Brady goes 9-0 in his next nine playoff games and wins three Super Bowls. He throws 11 touchdowns against three interceptions. He beats teams on the road. At home. As a favorite. As an underdog. He produces incredible, game-winning drives that will stand the test of time and redefine his legacy. Bizarro Simmons — undergoing a dramatic downward spiral that somehow takes him from hosting a show on ESPN to living in Charlestown and bumming cigarettes outside of Store 24 — has to laugh off years of columns about how he'll never be stupid enough to bet on Tom Brady when it really matters. Brady's career culminates with an incredibly gutsy performance against the Raiders at home in the snow, when he leads his team to a narrow victory before winning the next two games and claiming his third Super Bowl title. His legacy secure, Brady rides off into the sunset victorious.³

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So, with that all in mind, you should take two things away from this silly exercise. First, what a quarterback does in the playoffs at the beginning of his career isn't any more meaningful than what he does in the middle or at the end of his career. You don't win an extra half Super Bowl if you do it before you turn 25. Second, you don't "know" what a quarterback is going to do in the playoffs because of how he's previously performed in the playoffs. We have 15 games over seven seasons saying that Tom Brady's a playoff flop, and that information means absolutely nothing in determining how Tom Brady would play in the future. Looking at the games under the proper chronological order says just as much: We had nine games suggesting that Tom Brady was unstoppable in the playoffs, and afterward, we've had 15 games implying that he's actually just like any other good quarterback in the postseason. That he's "been there before" means nothing, just like it did in 2001, when Brady made it to the Super Bowl and won it without having been there before. He's still capable of screwing up and making mistakes, as Sunday showed. He's also still capable of being great and winning a Super Bowl. The truth isn't quite as satisfying as a one-word label like "clutch" or "unclutch," but football's a lot more complicated than one-word labels. It deserves better, and just as the likes of Manning and Ryan are demeaned with overly simplistic stories about their playoff performance, so is Brady.

[PFSIKH]

Brady's record is what it is.

Now, lets take a step back from revisionist history.

Joe Montana is arguably the greatest QB of all time. 4-0 in Superbowls. As Mike Greenberg said on Friday's M&M show, a clearly superior playoff QB. Really?

Montana 16-7 5700+ yards 95+ rtg 45 TDs and 21INTs

Brady 17-7 5900+ yards 87 rtg 42 TDs and 22 INTs

Fairly equal, Montana with some higher numbers.

Now, what revisionist like to spin against Brady, "yeah if you do not include his early years" what does his numbers look like? What does Montana look like when you remove the championship years?

Montana 4-7 13 TDs-11 INTs

Brady 8-7 31 TDs-19 INTs

Both had 3 game playoff losing streaks. Montana 4x"One and Dones". Brady had two.

Even today's flavor of the month. Joe Flacco has been white hot this post season. 850 yards. 8TDs-0 INTs. Awesome numbers. His last 5 games, 4-1 12 TDs-1 INT. Elite like.

Now, looking at his entire career, a smaller sampling grant you, in his first 8 playoff he topped 200 yards once. He had wins were he had 4, 9 and 11 completions and/or 34 and 134 yards passing.

Eli 8-0 15 TDs-2 INTs when playing on a champion. Otherwise 0-3 2 TDs-6 INTs.

If you are going to look at Brady through a prsim, look through the same prism as you look through with the other QBs.

[jgb]

Defense wins championships even in today's nfl.

[Klecko73isGod]

Brady's record is what it is.

Now, lets take a step back from revisionist history.

Joe Montana is arguably the greatest QB of all time. 4-0 in Superbowls. As Mike Greenberg said on Friday's M&M show, a clearly superior playoff QB. Really?

Montana 16-7 5700+ yards 95+ rtg 45 TDs and 21INTs

Brady 17-7 5900+ yards 87 rtg 42 TDs and 22 INTs

Fairly equal, Montana with some higher numbers.

Now, what revisionist like to spin against Brady, "yeah if you do not include his early years" what does his numbers look like? What does Montana look like when you remove the championship years?

Montana 4-7 13 TDs-11 INTs

Brady 8-7 31 TDs-19 INTs

Both had 3 game playoff losing streaks. Montana 4x"One and Dones". Brady had two.

Even today's flavor of the month. Joe Flacco has been white hot this post season. 850 yards. 8TDs-0 INTs. Awesome numbers. His last 5 games, 4-1 12 TDs-1 INT. Elite like.

Now, looking at his entire career, a smaller sampling grant you, in his first 8 playoff he topped 200 yards once. He had wins were he had 4, 9 and 11 completions and/or 34 and 134 yards passing.

Eli 8-0 15 TDs-2 INTs when playing on a champion. Otherwise 0-3 2 TDs-6 INTs.

If you are going to look at Brady through a prsim, look through the same prism as you look through with the other QBs.

Joe Montana never lost a Super Bowl and never threw an interception in one.

Montana >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> everyone else.

[SenorGato]

First issue:

Would he and the Patriots be "heavy home favorites" if his career was reversed? The Ravens have the more loaded roster.

[KennyOB7]

defense and the kicker carried the pats to victory all those years, Brady was a game manager. They should have stuck with that formula rather than building around Tom.

[JetsFanInDenver]

Brady's record is what it is.

Now, lets take a step back from revisionist history.

Joe Montana is arguably the greatest QB of all time. 4-0 in Superbowls. As Mike Greenberg said on Friday's M&M show, a clearly superior playoff QB. Really?

Montana 16-7 5700+ yards 95+ rtg 45 TDs and 21INTs

Brady 17-7 5900+ yards 87 rtg 42 TDs and 22 INTs

Fairly equal, Montana with some higher numbers.

Now, what revisionist like to spin against Brady, "yeah if you do not include his early years" what does his numbers look like? What does Montana look like when you remove the championship years?

Montana 4-7 13 TDs-11 INTs

Brady 8-7 31 TDs-19 INTs

Both had 3 game playoff losing streaks. Montana 4x"One and Dones". Brady had two.

Even today's flavor of the month. Joe Flacco has been white hot this post season. 850 yards. 8TDs-0 INTs. Awesome numbers. His last 5 games, 4-1 12 TDs-1 INT. Elite like.

Now, looking at his entire career, a smaller sampling grant you, in his first 8 playoff he topped 200 yards once. He had wins were he had 4, 9 and 11 completions and/or 34 and 134 yards passing.

Eli 8-0 15 TDs-2 INTs when playing on a champion. Otherwise 0-3 2 TDs-6 INTs.

If you are going to look at Brady through a prsim, look through the same prism as you look through with the other QBs.

Montana, Eli had no video tapes.

[pfilippone]

I promise that I will only be as jaundiced in the descriptions as most people would be about the likes of Ryan and Manning.

Interesting write up. However, by that same logic, Sanchez can play lights-out in 2013, since the past has nothing to do with the present.

PS - Jaundice is a liver disease.

[unbanmadmike1]

Defense wins championships even in today's nfl.

actually cheating won for Brady

[PFSIKH]

Joe Montana never lost a Super Bowl and never threw an interception in one.

Montana >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> everyone else.

And Montana never played under the constraints of a salary cap.

You miss the point.

If that is your argument, it is a valid one, but the point of the article was how Brady is viewed minus the first three years (e.g. the championships). I only showed that argument would deflate other QBs.

[JoeWillie]

Found this to be a pretty interesting, albeit somewhat pointless, exercise.

Based on his playoff performances since 2006, Brady has basically been a great regular season QB who leaves a lot on the table when the postseason arrives. If not for the Super Bowl rings accumulated early in his career, wouldn't we be comparing him to "choker" Matt Ryan right now?

And if my aunt had a penis, she'd be my uncle.

Let's face it ... he's an all-time great QB.

Montana's an all-time great QB.

So is Bradshaw, Elway, Marino, Staubach, Manning, etc...

I know it's fun and creates discussion, but trying to rank them is pretty pointless because every one of them played in different situations, with different variables, in different eras, yet all had great success.

[Klecko73isGod]

And Montana never played under the constraints of a salary cap.

You miss the point.

If that is your argument, it is a valid one, but the point of the article was how Brady is viewed minus the first three years (e.g. the championships). I only showed that argument would deflate other QBs.

The rules have also changed since Montana retired to significantly favor QBs and passing game. One can only wonder what kind of ridiculous numbers Montana would put up in today's NFL.

[JoeWillie]

The rules have also changed since Montana retired to significantly favor QBs and passing game. One can only wonder what kind of ridiculous numbers Montana would put up in today's NFL.

Yep, and the game that Montana played was an even different game from the one that Staubach, Bradshaw, Namath, and Tarkenton played.

Hell, Namath threw for 4,000 yards in a 14 game season, playing half his games in a November/December wind tunnel, when defenses could mug receivers all the way down thew field.

I would love to have seen what any of those 60's/70's QB's could do nowadays.

[RSJ]

How many home runs would Sosa have hit without HGH?

[kelticwizard]

I think the point of the exercise is to show that Brady, with his outstanding early success, has been coasting somewhat ever since. And it has been some years now that he has been doing it.

[Sharrow]

The difference between Montana and Brady is the difference between having to drive the field to score a TD to win and doing it and having to drive for a long field goal while knowing what plays the defense was running beforehand and having your kicker make it to win.

[Lizard King]

defense and the kicker carried the pats to victory all those years, Brady was a game manager. They should have stuck with that formula rather than building around Tom.

They havent exactly given Tom weapons. Randy Moss for one year.

[PFSIKH]

The rules have also changed since Montana retired to significantly favor QBs and passing game. One can only wonder what kind of ridiculous numbers Montana would put up in today's NFL.

No doubt.

While clearly Montana would be great if he played today, would he be 4-0 in Superbowls? You cannot say he would be.

His team's would be subjected to a salary cap. Do they keep Rice, Craig and the other talent on offense? Or all the players on D?

Again, my point is if you are going to knock Tom for his post dynasty performance, you need to look at Montana, Flacco or whomever and judge them by playing on non-championship teams. That is essentially how they want to grade Brady. Elway was 7-8 before finishing 7-0. Is he any less great? No.

[Matt39]

The only guy from the 80's who might be the best QB now would be Marino...

[Klecko73isGod]

No doubt.

While clearly Montana would be great if he played today, would he be 4-0 in Superbowls? You cannot say he would be.

His team's would be subjected to a salary cap. Do they keep Rice, Craig and the other talent on offense? Or all the players on D?

Again, my point is if you are going to knock Tom for his post dynasty performance, you need to look at Montana, Flacco or whomever and judge them by playing on non-championship teams. That is essentially how they want to grade Brady. Elway was 7-8 before finishing 7-0. Is he any less great? No.

They also didn't have unrestricted free agency.

[Jetsfan80]

First issue:

Would he and the Patriots be "heavy home favorites" if his career was reversed? The Ravens have the more loaded roster.

Odds are set by betting trends, not roster analysis. Certainly, Brady's sterling playoff record early in his career may have a residual effect on betting trends today, but of course we'd never know.

[JiFtheOracle]

The difference between Montana and Brady is the difference between having to drive the field to score a TD to win and doing it and having to drive for a long field goal while knowing what plays the defense was running beforehand and having your kicker make it to win.

Boom!!!!

Sandman, POTW, FTW

[Jetsfan80]

Double post.

[Jetsfan80]

I think the point of the exercise is to show that Brady, with his outstanding early success, has been coasting somewhat ever since. And it has been some years now that he has been doing it.

Bingo.

The difference between Montana and Brady is the difference between having to drive the field to score a TD to win and doing it and having to drive for a long field goal while knowing what plays the defense was running beforehand and having your kicker make it to win.

/Endthread

[Klecko73isGod]

No doubt.

While clearly Montana would be great if he played today, would he be 4-0 in Superbowls? You cannot say he would be.

His team's would be subjected to a salary cap. Do they keep Rice, Craig and the other talent on offense? Or all the players on D?

Again, my point is if you are going to knock Tom for his post dynasty performance, you need to look at Montana, Flacco or whomever and judge them by playing on non-championship teams. That is essentially how they want to grade Brady. Elway was 7-8 before finishing 7-0. Is he any less great? No.

Yeah I can, In fact, based on the rules changes he'd probably be even more dominant and would have won more.

You're forgetting a key fact in Montana's favor - he and Bill Wash are the main reason the game is played the way it is today. They revolutionized the passing game, putting a premium on efficiency.

[PFSIKH]

Yeah I can, In fact, based on the rules changes he'd probably be even more dominant and would have won more.

You're forgetting a key fact in Montana's favor - he and Bill Wash are the main reason the game is played the way it is today. They revolutionized the passing game, putting a premium on efficiency.

Wait a minute there.

Again, I am not doubting Joe's greatness. I am not even arguing how he potentially could be better.

Where I think you need to pull the brakes is won more. The league is not built to support that. If Joe and Bill came as a package. Yes, Joe would have won if Bill stayed in the NFL and maintained a system/mantra in team building and playing. He could have had a stretch of success like Brady and Belichick as long as they were joined at the hip.

Montana is easily going to command 20 million on average, if not more. I am pretty sure, if we bring Jerry forward, he would average north of Calvin Johnson's 19 million average. That is a third of your cap space.

Joe would have been great and won. Keeping talent around him so he can win more than 4 Superbowls....very very difficult. Not saying he couldn't, but the league would be a barrier more than NFL defenses.

[Klecko73isGod]

Wait a minute there.

Again, I am not doubting Joe's greatness. I am not even arguing how he potentially could be better.

Where I think you need to pull the brakes is won more. The league is not built to support that. If Joe and Bill came as a package. Yes, Joe would have won if Bill stayed in the NFL and maintained a system/mantra in team building and playing. He could have had a stretch of success like Brady and Belichick as long as they were joined at the hip.

Montana is easily going to command 20 million on average, if not more. I am pretty sure, if we bring Jerry forward, he would average north of Calvin Johnson's 19 million average. That is a third of your cap space.

Joe would have been great and won. Keeping talent around him so he can win more than 4 Superbowls....very very difficult. Not saying he couldn't, but the league would be a barrier more than NFL defenses.

Joe Montana won a SB before he ever met Jerry Rice and he won a SB with George Seifert as his HC.

[Jetsouth]

Brady is a pooswah of the highest order ..he isn't worth talking about.

Any pro qb that tries to kick a safety in the nuts on a slide deserves to be mugged nightly.

[#27TheDominator]

W-L playoff record and old-timey one and dones are influenced by this watered down NHL playoff schedule. Used to be four teams, then five, then six. It's like dealing with playoff records in baseball. Those guys are playing in tons of games now when Mantle just used to play the world series.

[PFSIKH]

Joe Montana won a SB before he ever met Jerry Rice and he won a SB with George Seifert as his HC.

Clark was not exactly a scrub You make it seem like he was throwing to the Saint Mary's All Girl School Prep.

Also look at the D he had throughout his (and Young's career). 1981 2nd in points and yards. They were consistently in the Top and usually Top 5 of both categories.

Again this is not an anti Montana post.

Could he win today? Yes. Would he be as great? That will depend on his situation. If he was the Lions or Rai-duhs, he would be good, but in a hideous situation.

[JetsFanInDenver]

NFL looking into Brady's dirty slide.

http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/8868249/2013-nfl-playoffs-tom-brady-new-england-patriots-slide-being-reviewed-nfl

Be ready to see some wrist slapping!