Anderson and Enunwa; Beasts in the Making

[Bleedin Green]

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

It is inexcusable to wait to extend him. If he never improves beyond his 2016 season, he's still worth retaining.

 

2 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Enunwa, prior to this year, has made $1.5m (pre-tax). He's made zero so far this year, he makes nothing all summer long while sweating it out on & off the practice field every day, risking injury in camp, and is months away from his first game check. Those game checks themselves are 16 installments at a low $38,000. He has no nest egg, and isn't going to be able to build one up this year either. He's potentially another 2 years away from inking a retirement money contract.

The way it stands now, next year he could realistically be looking at an RFA tag of $3-4m. If the team tags him at $4m, the only way he makes more is if he can find another team willing to give the Jets their 1st round pick. The way we could (and should) play it, given how many young WRs and how much cap room we have, is that we'll be good with either result and it's believable because it's the truth. It loses its teeth, though, to wait until next year to make this case, as his own waiting time will be that much less.

Even the $4m he'll make next year isn't the nest egg he's looking to retire on (with ~half going to taxes and his agent), but it's breathing room where he wouldn't walk away from the NFL with nothing if he can't make it through what will then be only 1 season. It's such a missed opportunity, especially when the team isn't in contender mode. The price already probably just went up a little bit after dumping Decker, since his value to the team clearly just went up. Regardless, extending him today should still be a significant long term savings over what he'll cost a year from now (never mind a year after that). 

It's a win-win for both sides. Easy for people to say he should just wait and cash in more, because those saying so aren't playing craps with his lifetime of financial security. I'd hope for an extension at around Decker's money, which seems reasonable. I don't know if that's massive overpaying or if he'd scoff at it because it's lower than his dream. But whatever is the lowest we can get him for now, the demand will be millions per year higher in 2018 (never mind how much more if we don't until 2019).

The less a player has made to date, the greater the incentive he has to get a sure-thing deal done earlier for less. This is how a Pittsburgh team was able to lock up Antonio Brown at $8m for the past 5 seasons. The team knew his price would go up by millions per year. So did Brown, but Brown also knew he could be two seasons (and two summer camps and two playoffs) away from getting a contract worth tens of millions. He got a lifetime of security without risking it all on two more NFL seasons, and the team got an early bird discount. Similar to Green Bay with Jordy Nelson, Pittsburgh again with DeCastro, Texans with Watt, Pats with Gronk, and many others.

Agree completely, with the item I think that might sometimes get stuck in heads of both teams and fans alike is that to sign him now, the team would essentially need to "overpay" for what his value would be considered right now.  The reason being because he has a very short resume, and so he wouldn't be considered worth of a big contract if sitting out there as a street free agent today, but of course Enunwa would have no reason to agree to a vet minimum contract extension.  All it means is the Jets end up playing slightly more than he is completely proven today, but that still ends up being significantly less than what he would get if this coming season is anything but him being a complete disaster or having a career-ending injury.  It is one of those situations where the low risk is very much worth the reward.  Now if Enunwa was a guy late in his career who had his first big season and little future upside, that would be a different story, but for someone still so young and with what he showed last year, it's a pretty safe to say that he's worth a long-term investment.

However, I thought the Jets' future situation might be even worse than you suggest.  Let's not forget that Enunwa actually came out in 2014.  This is actually going to be his 4th year in the league, so wouldn't he not be an RFA next offseason?  Or does the fact that he spent his rookie year on IR not qualify that as an accrued year for him?  My understanding was the options the Jets would be looking at if they don't sign him this summer is (1) negotiating a contract next January/February, (2) tagging him with a cost so high that would make not giving him a contract now beyond idiotic, or (3) letting him walk in FA.  Basically, unless the Jets have no problem with letting him walk next year, or have little-to-no faith in him as a player, I don't see the benefit in them waiting.  Even if he will be an RFA next year, while it's not quite as bad, the only real difference is they would just have another year to drag this out.

[Sperm Edwards]

47 minutes ago, Bleedin Green said:

 

Agree completely, with the item I think that might sometimes get stuck in heads of both teams and fans alike is that to sign him now, the team would essentially need to "overpay" for what his value would be considered right now.  The reason being because he has a very short resume, and so he wouldn't be considered worth of a big contract if sitting out there as a street free agent today, but of course Enunwa would have no reason to agree to a vet minimum contract extension.  All it means is the Jets end up playing slightly more than he is completely proven today, but that still ends up being significantly less than what he would get if this coming season is anything but him being a complete disaster or having a career-ending injury.  It is one of those situations where the low risk is very much worth the reward.  Now if Enunwa was a guy late in his career who had his first big season and little future upside, that would be a different story, but for someone still so young and with what he showed last year, it's a pretty safe to say that he's worth a long-term investment.

However, I thought the Jets' future situation might be even worse than you suggest.  Let's not forget that Enunwa actually came out in 2014.  This is actually going to be his 4th year in the league, so wouldn't he not be an RFA next offseason?  Or does the fact that he spent his rookie year on IR not qualify that as an accrued year for him?  My understanding was the options the Jets would be looking at if they don't sign him this summer is (1) negotiating a contract next January/February, (2) tagging him with a cost so high that would make not giving him a contract now beyond idiotic, or (3) letting him walk in FA.  Basically, unless the Jets have no problem with letting him walk next year, or have little-to-no faith in him as a player, I don't see the benefit in them waiting.  Even if he will be an RFA next year, while it's not quite as bad, the only real difference is they would just have another year to drag this out.

I believe there's a CBA difference between contract years and accrued years for rookie contracts.

Enunwa was on the PS for all but 1 game as a rookie so 2014 didn't count as an accrued season (thanks, Idzik). Therefore he's a RFA next year. 

For rookie contract renegotiations, it can't be within a player's first 3 contract years (as opposed to accrued years). So even though he was on the PS as a rookie, he was making his regular NFL salary under his rookie contract (not the lower salary PS FAs get) so it counts. Or I think so, anyway. 

As a result, the team is presented with a unique opportunity to leverage renegotiation of a cheap rookie contract 2 years before the player can become a UFA.

[win4ever]

5 hours ago, JiF said:

Agreed.  Not getting anything for him is the real shame of it.  Numerous teams were literally desperate for a WR and trying to sell me you couldn't get a late round pick for him is just not something I'm buying. 

I still don't get how we go absolutely nothing from the Marshall/Decker combo, while they were both on team friendly deals.  I'm not saying these guys are true No. 1 anymore, but sure as heck are good No. 2 WRs with salaries that weren't horrible.  

Julius Thomas got a 7th round pick, and he's an injury prone, and severely overpaid TE.

Marshawn Lynch has been out of football, and yet they got a draft round upgrade for him. 

We couldn't get anything for Marshall/Decker?  I'm not saying I was expecting first round picks, but at least some late round pick.  It's one of the worst qualities of Macc so far, because I think he's horrible at negotiating with other teams and players.  He's pretty much lost value on all of his draft trades, and he's gotten bent over on salary negotiations.  I think the only reason Decker settled for less money is because he lives in Nashville, his wife is pretty famous and they are financially set, and that team is on the rise.  With Decker/Davis and having Mariota as the QB, I could see them being a sleeper this year.  

[JustInFudge]

10 minutes ago, win4ever said:

I still don't get how we go absolutely nothing from the Marshall/Decker combo, while they were both on team friendly deals.  I'm not saying these guys are true No. 1 anymore, but sure as heck are good No. 2 WRs with salaries that weren't horrible.  

Julius Thomas got a 7th round pick, and he's an injury prone, and severely overpaid TE.

Marshawn Lynch has been out of football, and yet they got a draft round upgrade for him. 

We couldn't get anything for Marshall/Decker?  I'm not saying I was expecting first round picks, but at least some late round pick.  It's one of the worst qualities of Macc so far, because I think he's horrible at negotiating with other teams and players.  He's pretty much lost value on all of his draft trades, and he's gotten bent over on salary negotiations.  I think the only reason Decker settled for less money is because he lives in Nashville, his wife is pretty famous and they are financially set, and that team is on the rise.  With Decker/Davis and having Mariota as the QB, I could see them being a sleeper this year.  

Yep.  Julius Thomas is literally the laziest piece of trash on the planet and has never been healthy for an entire season in his entire career and the Jags got compensation for him that included a ridiculous contract.  But the Jets couldnt get anything for Marshall or Decker?  Makes no sense.  He highly valued 6th and 7th round picks in the draft, I would assume he would have for a player trade. 

I'm confident Mac has a reputation for being a complete pusswah push over and that's why he cant get trades to go through and he gets bent over during negotiations. 

[win4ever]

14 minutes ago, JiF said:

Yep.  Julius Thomas is literally the laziest piece of trash on the planet and has never been healthy for an entire season in his entire career and the Jags got compensation for him that included a ridiculous contract.  But the Jets couldnt get anything for Marshall or Decker?  Makes no sense.  He highly valued 6th and 7th round picks in the draft, I would assume he would have for a player trade. 

I'm confident Mac has a reputation for being a complete pusswah push over and that's why he cant get trades to go through and he gets bent over during negotiations. 

I think he's lost value on every draft day trade based on the value chart.  It's almost as if he doesn't even pay attention to the chart while making trades.  He reminds me of guys in fantasy leagues that over-pay because they are hell bent on getting a certain player, and lose value in deals.  If he picks the right players, then the lost value doesn't matter as much, but if it's hit or miss, then it comes back to bite him.  

I don't get the media love affair, where we have to announce that we will be dealing away Decker so we can trash any value he has.  Or that we asked Marshall to an extension (signifying that we value him enough to have him here for future years) and then turning around and just dropping him.  He asked for his release, but the Jets asked for an extension and got denied.  If Marshall didn't want to placate to the Jets' needs, why should they do him a favor by dropping him?

It's like we can't win, because Idzik was known to stick to his grounds on negotiations (Decker deal was a steal, and he got value for Revis coming off an injury) but he was horrible with the media, and screwed up his last draft.  Macc seems to do better in drafts, but can't negotiate for his life.  

[Tony MaC]

4 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Enunwa, prior to this year, has made $1.5m (pre-tax). He's made zero so far this year, he makes nothing all summer long while sweating it out on & off the practice field every day, risking injury in camp, and is months away from his first game check. Those game checks themselves are 16 installments at a low $38,000. He has no nest egg, and isn't going to be able to build one up this year either. He's potentially another 2 years away from inking a retirement money contract.

The way it stands now, next year he could realistically be looking at an RFA tag of $3-4m. If the team tags him at $4m, the only way he makes more is if he can find another team willing to give the Jets their 1st round pick. The way we could (and should) play it, given how many young WRs and how much cap room we have, is that we'll be good with either result and it's believable because it's the truth. It loses its teeth, though, to wait until next year to make this case, as his own waiting time will be that much less.

Even the $4m he'll make next year isn't the nest egg he's looking to retire on (with ~half going to taxes and his agent), but it's breathing room where he wouldn't walk away from the NFL with nothing if he can't make it through what will then be only 1 season. It's such a missed opportunity, especially when the team isn't in contender mode. The price already probably just went up a little bit after dumping Decker, since his value to the team clearly just went up. Regardless, extending him today should still be a significant long term savings over what he'll cost a year from now (never mind a year after that). 

It's a win-win for both sides. Easy for people to say he should just wait and cash in more, because those saying so aren't playing craps with his lifetime of financial security. I'd hope for an extension at around Decker's money, which seems reasonable. I don't know if that's massive overpaying or if he'd scoff at it because it's lower than his dream. But whatever is the lowest we can get him for now, the demand will be millions per year higher in 2018 (never mind how much more if we don't until 2019).

The less a player has made to date, the greater the incentive he has to get a sure-thing deal done earlier for less. This is how a Pittsburgh team was able to lock up Antonio Brown at $8m for the past 5 seasons. The team knew his price would go up by millions per year. So did Brown, but Brown also knew he could be two seasons (and two summer camps and two playoffs) away from getting a contract worth tens of millions. He got a lifetime of security without risking it all on two more NFL seasons, and the team got an early bird discount. Similar to Green Bay with Jordy Nelson, Pittsburgh again with DeCastro, Texans with Watt, Pats with Gronk, and many others.

I see where you're coming from, and your argument makes sense in general. But there are some hold ups I can think of.

Enunwa has only had moderate success thus far in his career. He's had a wash of a rookie year, a promising sophomore season with flashes, and a "breakout" year last year where he had slightly above average production. (58 recs, 857 yds, 4 TD's and passed the eye test)

We haven't seen him as THE top target though. We also haven't seen him in Morton's offense. We don't know if that's his ceiling or just the tip of the iceberg. So its a little harder to properly gauge his value to this team going forward.

If the Jets could pull off a team friendly deal where he get's a pay increase this year and guarantees for next year worth No MORE than 15 million altogether (no signing bonus) it would be worth the risk. (and that's ASSUMING Quincy doesn't bet on himself for more) Otherwise, I'm leery at giving him too much too soon and would be perfectly okay giving him a "prove it" year.

We want to get ahead of this, I get that. There is an opportunity to get a cornerstone locked up for years to come on a value deal like the names you mentioned, but are we sure he's that guy? I like Q, but I don't know that for sure, and Macc might not either.

[Sperm Edwards]

52 minutes ago, Tony MaC said:

I see where you're coming from, and your argument makes sense in general. But there are some hold ups I can think of.

Enunwa has only had moderate success thus far in his career. He's had a wash of a rookie year, a promising sophomore season with flashes, and a "breakout" year last year where he had slightly above average production. (58 recs, 857 yds, 4 TD's and passed the eye test)

We haven't seen him as THE top target though. We also haven't seen him in Morton's offense. We don't know if that's his ceiling or just the tip of the iceberg. So its a little harder to properly gauge his value to this team going forward.

If the Jets could pull off a team friendly deal where he get's a pay increase this year and guarantees for next year worth No MORE than 15 million altogether (no signing bonus) it would be worth the risk. (and that's ASSUMING Quincy doesn't bet on himself for more) Otherwise, I'm leery at giving him too much too soon and would be perfectly okay giving him a "prove it" year.

We want to get ahead of this, I get that. There is an opportunity to get a cornerstone locked up for years to come on a value deal like the names you mentioned, but are we sure he's that guy? I like Q, but I don't know that for sure, and Macc might not either.

I think in today's market he's worth this even if he doesn't turn into Boldin II with more speed. In other words, I don't care if he's a so-called "#1" WR.

To our negotiating advantage, he sees that we have (let's call it) uncertainty at QB, and the best time to do this was while Hackenberg's early reports were horrible, which would mean his numbers aren't necessarily going to increase even if he personally plays better and can handle the job sans B.Marshall. Then next year, more likely than not, we're going to be trotting out a rookie QB. 

There are risks either way. The only thing known is the cap goes up so signing/re-signing equal talent veterans is more expensive with each passing year. Also while we may get surprised by sharply improved results, the coaching staff is supposed to have a better idea of what a player is and isn't, from seeing many times the reps in practice than we see in a season of games. If he has a 1000-1100 yd season, even with poor QB play, his demand will rightly go up significantly, north of an $11m/year number that would be laughable today.

Except what I've seen from this group is the opposite of what's smart: delaying extensions until the last second, causing the new contract to be more expensive or causing us to outright lose the player. 

[#27TheDominator]

I have been beating the drum to extend Enunwa for quite a bit.  I would love to hear what @jason423 thinks of his current value.  There is an article out there by Tyler Calvaruso who I have never heard of, but is apparently jetswire.com which has an affiliation with usatoday.  He compares Enunwa's value to Woods, Stills and Wheaton at $5.5M to $8M per. With Eric Decker gone, what would a Quincy Enunwa extension look like?  I like Enunwa and if he is as hard a worker as he seems this would be a no brainer.  OTOH, he has one career 100 yard game and 4 TDs.  Sure Stills got 4/$32M, but he had 9 TDs last year alone.

[#27TheDominator]

The thing about extending him now is how many years you make the deal.  If he will be an RFA in 2018, you already have him for 2 years.   The extension has to be for at least 4 or it isn't worth it.  Might make sense to go for a midyear deal like they did with Kerley.

[Sperm Edwards]

1 minute ago, #27TheDominator said:

I have been beating the drum to extend Enunwa for quite a bit.  I would love to hear what @jason423 thinks of his current value.  There is an article out there by Tyler Calvaruso who I have never heard of, but is apparently jetswire.com which has an affiliation with usatoday.  He compares Enunwa's value to Woods, Stills and Wheaton at $5.5M to $8M per. With Eric Decker gone, what would a Quincy Enunwa extension look like?  I like Enunwa and if he is as hard a worker as he seems this would be a no brainer.  OTOH, he has one career 100 yard game and 4 TDs.  Sure Stills got 4/$32M, but he had 9 TDs last year alone.

Probably Wesley Johnson as well. I see this playing out as a repeat of the Brian Winters situation.

Low-priced, starting centers in their 20s are retained by their prior teams (unless they're horrible). This leaves very high-priced ones - and none of those are expected to be available anyway - or veterans past their prime (like Mangold today). If they get through the season, and they feel he was still around the same as (or only a little better than) 2016 performance-wise, I still expect them to extend him after the season for double the coulda-had rate.

[Sperm Edwards]

13 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

The thing about extending him now is how many years you make the deal.  If he will be an RFA in 2018, you already have him for 2 years.   The extension has to be for at least 4 or it isn't worth it.  Might make sense to go for a midyear deal like they did with Kerley.

Maybe. Even a 3-year extension certainly gives the team a nice, long window to find a replacement (if such a replacement isn't already on the roster, but merely unready so far). The 2 extra years are still at a heavy discount.

But I agree it would be best if it was at least 4 years. I'm just saying while it's not as good it might still be worthwhile if it was only a 3-yr extension where he becomes a UFA in 2021.

Given how much time he's looking at before a serious payday, I think he'll be flexible. He'd be 30 at the end of a 4-year extension, so if he's as good as he thinks he is it's still young enough to cash in again, or get the Jets to renegotiate early to extend him further. 

[Tony MaC]

8 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

I think in today's market he's worth this even if he doesn't turn into Boldin II with more speed. In other words, I don't care if he's a so-called "#1" WR.

To our negotiating advantage, he sees that we have (let's call it) uncertainty at QB, and the best time to do this was while Hackenberg's early reports were horrible, which would mean his numbers aren't necessarily going to increase even if he personally plays better and can handle the job sans B.Marshall. Then next year, more likely than not, we're going to be trotting out a rookie QB. 

There are risks either way. The only thing known is the cap goes up so signing/re-signing equal talent veterans is more expensive with each passing year. Also while we may get surprised by sharply improved results, the coaching staff is supposed to have a better idea of what a player is and isn't, from seeing many times the reps in practice than we see in a season of games. If he has a 1000-1100 yd season, even with poor QB play, his demand will rightly go up significantly, north of an $11m/year number that would be laughable today.

Except what I've seen from this group is the opposite of what's smart: delaying extensions until the last second, causing the new contract to be more expensive or causing us to outright lose the player. 

Once again, a sound argument. I'd prefer to see him put up another year like he did last year but a bit better just to put my mind at ease that his positive production wasn't an aberration, but that might not be possible given our QB circumstances.

As long as he looks like he's adjusting to the offense fine or doesn't appear to be dealing with any lingering injuries (he had a neck one that cost him mini-camp, gotta keep an eye on things like that) I suppose it is worth the risk. 

Out of curiosity what kind of deal would you give him right now if you could?

Like I said before I couldn't justify him making more than what Decker was making (7-8 million) over the next two seasons right now, and that's about all I'd guarantee. I'd probably give him something over 10 million unguaranteed in the latter years of the deal though,  give or take 11 million a year sounds fair.

So:

2017-2018- 14-15 million guaranteed

2019-20/21- 11-12 million a year unguaranteed

 

[SickJetFan]

5 minutes ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Probably Wesley Johnson as well. I see this playing out as a repeat of the Brian Winters situation.

Low-priced, starting centers in their 20s are retained by their prior teams (unless they're horrible). This leaves very high-priced ones - and none of those are expected to be available anyway - or veterans past their prime (like Mangold today). If they get through the season, and they feel he was still around the same as (or only a little better than) 2016 performance-wise, I still expect them to extend him after the season for double the coulda-had rate.

Could-a-had rate

That's make an assumption these 20something year old players and their agents pass on waiting for as you even say expected higher pay off down the road a bit

why would this 20something who see big potential future $$$$ and has limited life long salary time line take short money?

They see Porches, Swimming pools, and have agents (who could care less about them) whispering in their ears.

 

so yes you will be disappointed more often than not

[Obrien2Toon]

WR is the one position I'm not worried about.

 

oh and Safety

[#27TheDominator]

5 minutes ago, Tony MaC said:

Once again, a sound argument. I'd prefer to see him put up another year like he did last year but a bit better just to put my mind at ease that his positive production wasn't an aberration, but that might not be possible given our QB circumstances.

As long as he looks like he's adjusting to the offense fine or doesn't appear to be dealing with any lingering injuries (he had a neck one that cost him mini-camp, gotta keep an eye on things like that) I suppose it is worth the risk. 

Out of curiosity what kind of deal would you give him right now if you could?

Like I said before I couldn't justify him making more than what Decker was making (7-8 million) over the next two seasons right now, and that's about all I'd guarantee. I'd probably give him something over 10 million unguaranteed in the latter years of the deal though,  give or take 11 million a year sounds fair.

So:

2017-2018- 14-15 million guaranteed

2019-20/21- 11-12 million a year unguaranteed

 

Way too rich for my blood.  Assuming he is an RFA that will get $4M in 2018, you are giving him $10M more than we have him locked up for right now.   If you are talking about paying him starting in 2017, I would look at something closer to 4/$20M with half guaranteed.  Maybe up the last two non-guaranteed.  OTOH, I am notoriously cheap.  

[Sperm Edwards]

12 minutes ago, Tony MaC said:

Once again, a sound argument. I'd prefer to see him put up another year like he did last year but a bit better just to put my mind at ease that his positive production wasn't an aberration, but that might not be possible given our QB circumstances.

As long as he looks like he's adjusting to the offense fine or doesn't appear to be dealing with any lingering injuries (he had a neck one that cost him mini-camp, gotta keep an eye on things like that) I suppose it is worth the risk. 

Out of curiosity what kind of deal would you give him right now if you could?

Like I said before I couldn't justify him making more than what Decker was making (7-8 million) over the next two seasons right now, and that's about all I'd guarantee. I'd probably give him something over 10 million unguaranteed in the latter years of the deal though,  give or take 11 million a year sounds fair.

So:

2017-2018- 14-15 million guaranteed

2019-20/21- 11-12 million a year unguaranteed

 

The problem is after he's proven that stats-wise, it's too late, since his price has already risen.

[#27TheDominator]

3 minutes ago, SickJetFan said:

Could-a-had rate

That's make an assumption these 20something year old players and their agents pass on waiting for as you even say expected higher pay off down the road a bit

why would this 20something who see big potential future $$$$ and has limited life long salary time line take short money?

They see Porches, Swimming pools, and have agents (who could care less about them) whispering in their ears.

 

so yes you will be disappointed more often than not

The player and the agent are looking at $615K for 2017.  Assuming Sperm is correct, an RFA tender in 2018 of around $4M.  You don't think they would be happy to get around $10M guaranteed for the next two and sign away a bit of the following 2 years?  The agents and players comprehend the danger of the NFL. Admittedly, I may be on the low side, but I am quite sure Enunwa and almost any agent would jump on Tony MaC's rate and sign as quickly as possible.  

$10M is Porsche's and swimming pools.  $615K is a leased 3 series BMW and PSL's for your favorite team.

[Sperm Edwards]

7 minutes ago, SickJetFan said:

Could-a-had rate

That's make an assumption these 20something year old players and their agents pass on waiting for as you even say expected higher pay off down the road a bit

why would this 20something who see big potential future $$$$ and has limited life long salary time line take short money?

They see Porches, Swimming pools, and have agents (who could care less about them) whispering in their ears.

 

so yes you will be disappointed more often than not

Yeah, it's not like it doesn't happen all the time (except on the Jets).

It's convenient for you to risk Enunwa's lifetime of financial security, with 2 upcoming years of first year QB starters throwing him the ball, when you aren't actually risking anything like he is.

[SickJetFan]

Just now, #27TheDominator said:

The player and the agent are looking at $615K for 2017.  Assuming Sperm is correct, an RFA tender in 2018 of around $4M.  You don't think they would be happy to get around $10M guaranteed for the next two and sign away a bit of the following 2 years?  The agents and players comprehend the danger of the NFL. Admittedly, I may be on the low side, but I am quite sure Enunwa and almost any agent would jump on Tony MaC's rate and sign as quickly as possible.  

$10M is Porsche's and swimming pools.  $615K is a leased 3 series BMW and PSL's for your favorite team.

I know it does happen and could....what is the % of time this happens across the league...my guess is low

[SickJetFan]

Just now, Sperm Edwards said:

Yeah, it's not like it doesn't happen all the time (except on the Jets).

It's convenient for you to risk Enunwa's lifetime of financial security, with 2 upcoming years of first year QB starters throwing him the ball, when you aren't actually risking anything like he is.

i sense a catfight

[Tony MaC]

Just now, Sperm Edwards said:

The problem is after he's proven that stats-wise, it's too late, since his price has already risen.

True, but even then I doubt he's making elite cash (we're talking Green/Jones/Thomas money) and we'll KNOW he's worth it. Sure it would be a missed opportunity to get him a bit cheaper, but I'd gladly pay a really good WR like a really good WR.

If we can get him on a reasonable rate then fine, but either way works for me.

[Tony MaC]

15 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Way too rich for my blood.  Assuming he is an RFA that will get $4M in 2018, you are giving him $10M more than we have him locked up for right now.   If you are talking about paying him starting in 2017, I would look at something closer to 4/$20M with half guaranteed.  Maybe up the last two non-guaranteed.  OTOH, I am notoriously cheap.  

...and that's too little. What WR would take 5 million a year for the last four years of their twenty's?

Though maybe you're right in that I went too high, I'm mostly compensating for the fact that this would be his only chance to cash in like this and that he'd want some bigger money down the road if he's committed to the team for that long. If I recall right that's how Nelson's deal worked.

Actually, take that twenty million figure and make it for three years instead of four. (counting this year)

6.3 million a year is pretty good for a WR with one good year, especially if he's coming out of it a 28 year old free agent.

[SickJetFan]

10 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

The player and the agent are looking at $615K for 2017.  Assuming Sperm is correct, an RFA tender in 2018 of around $4M.  You don't think they would be happy to get around $10M guaranteed for the next two and sign away a bit of the following 2 years?  The agents and players comprehend the danger of the NFL. Admittedly, I may be on the low side, but I am quite sure Enunwa and almost any agent would jump on Tony MaC's rate and sign as quickly as possible.  

$10M is Porsche's and swimming pools.  $615K is a leased 3 series BMW and PSL's for your favorite team.

I also wonder what the success rate of these type of situations are...say you are able to pull it off an sign player for short money

what are the success rates of these semi unproven players now sitting on pile of cash with no contract to work towards.

[stoicsentry]

Enunwa and Anderson are the types of roleplayers that every good team has but you don't hear about them, because there are much more impactful players on the roster.

[#27TheDominator]

3 minutes ago, Tony MaC said:

...and that's too little. What WR would take 5 million a year for the last four years of their twenty's?

Though maybe you're right in that I went too high, I'm mostly compensating for the fact that this would be his only chance to cash in like this and that he'd want some bigger money down the road if he's committed to the team for that long. If I recall right that's how Nelson's deal worked.

Actually, take that twenty million figure and make it for three years instead of four. (counting this year)

6.3 million a year is pretty good for a WR with one good year, especially if he's coming out of it a 28 year old free agent.

I'm looking at it from the team standpoint.  That is my offer.  Make me a counter.

[Sperm Edwards]

3 minutes ago, SickJetFan said:

I know it does happen and could....what is the % of time this happens across the league...my guess is low

Left to your devices - and Maccagnan's, for that matter - Pittsburgh would have spent the last 5 years paying Antonio Brown $13m/year instead of $8m.

The guy has no money. He's made no money. He's about to make no money. His next paycheck, after a full summer of sweating like a pig on & off the practice field every day, is in September and it'll be for $38,000 before taxes and agent fees are taken out. He had a whopping 850 yards in a breakout season. He has no obvious asset of a QB to help him get his dollars up. Next year he'll make a little taste, but not much, and he'll be on the receiving end of yet another first year QB who'll potentially be running a ball-control, run-first offense as a rookie.

But no good player does that, you say. The receivers that do are all nobodies like Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, and Gronk who clearly didn't have the leverage that Quincy Enunwa possesses.

[SickJetFan]

1 minute ago, Sperm Edwards said:

Left to your devices - and Maccagnan's, for that matter - Pittsburgh would have spent the last 5 years paying Antonio Brown $13m/year instead of $8m.

The guy has no money. He's made no money. He's about to make no money. His next paycheck, after a full summer of sweating like a pig on & off the practice field every day, is in September and it'll be for $38,000 before taxes and agent fees are taken out. He had a whopping 850 yards in a breakout season. He has no obvious asset of a QB to help him get his dollars up. Next year he'll make a little taste, but not much, and he'll be on the receiving end of yet another first year QB who'll potentially be running a ball-control, run-first offense as a rookie.

But no good player does that, you say. The receivers that do are all nobodies like Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, and Gronk who clearly didn't have the leverage that Quincy Enunwa possesses.

what is the % of time

[Sperm Edwards]

15 minutes ago, Tony MaC said:

True, but even then I doubt he's making elite cash (we're talking Green/Jones/Thomas money) and we'll KNOW he's worth it. Sure it would be a missed opportunity to get him a bit cheaper, but I'd gladly pay a really good WR like a really good WR.

If we can get him on a reasonable rate then fine, but either way works for me.

My issue is that to keep playing that game, as we have, eventually robs the team of the ability to add 1-2 other starters or risks losing the player altogether.

A year from now Enunwa's personal risk will be far less and he'll have a little bit of play money in his pocket.

[HighPitch]

U guys are pretty optimistic. Not sure if i agree and hope im wrong. 

Those guys with decker n marshall made for a solid wr corps. Now, its a big q mark. 

Quinton basically has to become at least an average no 1. Anderson an average no 2. Thats a lot.... Anderson drops balls and quincy is not tested yet at this level. 

On top  of that we bave to hope at least 2 others step up. 

Its not impossible by any means, but its a lot to ask for. I hope jenkins becomes a force

[Sperm Edwards]

10 minutes ago, SickJetFan said:

what is the % of time

Even an NFL agent wouldn't be able to answer, as he'd have to be in on every offer made to every player on every team to quantify to accurately reply to this stupid question.

If I see some of the game's elite receivers getting locked up in this fashion it can't be the rarity you suggest. It's more rare to have an elite receiver in the first place than to get one locked up before he's finished his final contract year.

But I do remember looking up when we signed Winters late, 2/3 of the veterans at his position (those who stayed with their prior team) were locked up before their contracts expired, or before the final game of their final contract year, like Winters. The way Maccagnan does it - waiting until a player gets his dollars up and has loads of options - is in the minority of cases, and it's freaking stupid because he's in way over his head and as a result is legitimately terrible at this.

[SickJetFan]

Just now, Sperm Edwards said:

Even an NFL agent wouldn't be able to answer, as he'd have to be in on every offer made to every player on every team to quantify to accurately reply to this stupid question.

If I see some of the game's elite receivers getting locked up in this fashion it can't be a rarity. It's more rare to have an elite receiver in the first place than to get one locked up before he's finished his final contract year.

But I do remember looking up when we signed Winters late, 2/3 of the veterans at his position (those who stayed with their prior team) were locked up before their contracts expired, or before the final game of their final contract year, like Winters. The way Maccagnan does it - waiting until a player gets his dollars up and has loads of options - is in the minority of cases, and it's freaking stupid because he's in way over his head and as a result is legitimately terrible at this.

I tell you what is stupid and that is picking all the perfect examples of something working out and applying that to every player and situation.

I tell you who does know the answer to my question...that is every NFL GM and not you.

[#27TheDominator]

6 minutes ago, SickJetFan said:

I tell you what is stupid and that is picking all the perfect examples of something working out and applying that to every player and situation.

I tell you who does know the answer to my question...that is every NFL GM and not you.

Percentage of the time what happens?  Players are extended?  Who gives a **** about the percentage?  The point is to do it when it is prudent.  I knew extending Kerley when they did was stupid, but they still did it.  I knew waiting on Fitzpatrick and Winters was wrong.  I'm sure I was in the minority there.  If you have players you want to keep, you make moves to keep them.  There are guys to wait out, guys with injury history or when they demand big money.  It is possible that Enunwa will want too much money, but you never know if you don't ask.  You can sit around and think that they do and it doesn't get mentioned, but why would that be a secret when something like Decker being cut if they couldn't trade him was?  That was something that hurt the team and it was still leaked - talking extension doesn't hurt anybody and makes the player seem wanted.  

[Sperm Edwards]

5 minutes ago, #27TheDominator said:

Percentage of the time what happens?  Players are extended?  Who gives a **** about the percentage?  The point is to do it when it is prudent.  I knew extending Kerley when they did was stupid, but they still did it.  I knew waiting on Fitzpatrick and Winters was wrong.  I'm sure I was in the minority there.  If you have players you want to keep, you make moves to keep them.  There are guys to wait out, guys with injury history or when they demand big money.  It is possible that Enunwa will want too much money, but you never know if you don't ask.  You can sit around and think that they do and it doesn't get mentioned, but why would that be a secret when something like Decker being cut if they couldn't trade him was?  That was something that hurt the team and it was still leaked - talking extension doesn't hurt anybody and makes the player seem wanted.  

Don't bother. I gave examples of 3 of the most productive receivers of the past 5+ years taking less money in order to cash in early but it still means nothing. I could provide a dozen more and it'd still mean nothing lol.

[SickJetFan]

1 minute ago, #27TheDominator said:

Percentage of the time what happens?  Players are extended?  Who gives a **** about the percentage?  The point is to do it when it is prudent.  I knew extending Kerley when they did was stupid, but they still did it.  I knew waiting on Fitzpatrick and Winters was wrong.  I'm sure I was in the minority there.  If you have players you want to keep, you make moves to keep them.  There are guys to wait out, guys with injury history or when they demand big money.  It is possible that Enunwa will want too much money, but you never know if you don't ask.  You can sit around and think that they do and it doesn't get mentioned, but why would that be a secret when something like Decker being cut if they couldn't trade him was?  That was something that hurt the team and it was still leaked - talking extension doesn't hurt anybody and makes the player seem wanted.  

every business has metrics and use them to make decisions but from our POV not privy to those type metrics we don't even know if they tried right? how do you know they are not approaching him every week trying?

You simply want to blame someone for it not happening or you are pounding on your computer for it to happen but if some event has say a 25% odds of even happening who are you to blame when it does not especially given human nature to hold out for more $?

or maybe they are not trying because to sign him because their metrics show the odds of this situation success are low to bet 20 million dollars on.  How much of your money are you willing to gamble in stock market? what is your threshold for potential % success for you to jump in?  would you jump into a stock with $100,000 if the odds of success were 25%, 50%, or 75%?

 

 

[#27TheDominator]

14 hours ago, SickJetFan said:

every business has metrics and use them to make decisions but from our POV not privy to those type metrics we don't even know if they tried right? how do you know they are not approaching him every week trying?

You simply want to blame someone for it not happening or you are pounding on your computer for it to happen but if some event has say a 25% odds of even happening who are you to blame when it does not especially given human nature to hold out for more $?

or maybe they are not trying because to sign him because their metrics show the odds of this situation success are low to bet 20 million dollars on.  How much of your money are you willing to gamble in stock market? what is your threshold for potential % success for you to jump in?  would you jump into a stock with $100,000 if the odds of success were 25%, 50%, or 75%?

 

 

Yes,  there are delicate metrics that I am not privvy to.  **** that ******* bullsh*t math.  Any ******* group that announces that we are going to cut Decker if we can't trade him is so ******* stupid that I question that value of any "metric" they develop.  You are worried about potential success at $20M for Enunwa but not 3/$24M $12M guaranteed on Beachum?  They literally threw $10M at Clady.  It doesn't take metrics to see those risks are worse than Enunwa - who by the way they have anointed as their #1 WR.