nyjbuddy Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Thought I'd take a shot at doing an off-season mock. I know its early and many things will change from now until the draft but always fun to look back later and see how everything shakes out. The big assumption that I made was Bates being the OC and running a zone blocking scheme. I tried to keep that in mind when looking at the current roster, free agents and draft prospects. Assuming a $178 cap: Cut Wilkerson (June 1) Skrine Forte Petty Ijalana Smith Cap space after cuts: $105M Re-sign Claiborne ($6M) ASJ ($4.5M) Davis ($4M) Dozier ($2M) Ealy ($2M) Harrison ($1.5M) Catanzaro ($1M) $84M Tender Qvale ($2M) Sterling ($2M) Middleton ($.6M) Cap space after re-signing: $79.4M Cousins ($28M) - Similar deal to Stafford's 5 year/$135M which allows the team to cut him after 3-years with approximately $10M per year over the 2 remaining years in dead money Bell ($14M) - 5 year / $65M ($14M, $15M, $16M, $12M, $8M) Richardson ($12M) - 3 year / $34M ($12M, $12M, $10M) Richburg ($7.5M) - 3 year / $24M ($7.5M, $8M, $8.5M) $17.9M Draft 1st Josh Allen 2nd Josh Rosen 3rd Saquon Barkley 4th Jets trade up to the 4th spot giving up the 6th, the 103rd, and 2019 2nd round - select QB Sam Darnold USC. It maybe unlikely that Darnold is here at this point and wouldn't mind taking Mayfield or Rosen if they were to be available. Jackson I am a little unsure of, but its early in the offseason so things can change. 2nd round (37) - OT Tyrell Crosby Oregon 2nd round (49) - DE/OLB Dorance Armstrong Kansas 3rd round (72) - WR Anthony Miller Memphis 4th round (103) - traded to move up to the 4th pick 5th round (148) - CB Kevin Toliver LSU 6th round (165) - SS Quin Blanding Virginia 7th round - ILB Chris Worley Ohio State UDFA - OLB Anthony Winbush Ball State UDFA - NT Joshua Frazier Alabama UDFA - OLB Sione Teuhema SLU UDFA - ILB Garrett Dolan Houston Baptist UDFA - ILB Christian Sam Arizona State UDFA - OG Matt Pryor TCU UDFA - FS Kamari Cotton-Moya Iowa State UDFA - RB Darrell Willaims LSU UDFA - TE Damon Gibson Minnesota State U - Moorhead Approximate cap space after draft: $7M QB: Cousins, Darnold, Hackenberg, Stave RB: Bell, Powell, Langford, McGuire, Judd, Thomas, Williams TE: ASJ, Leggett, Gibson LT: Beachum, Kirven LG: Carpenter, Dozier, Braden C: Richburg, Harrison RG: Winters, Pryor RT: Shell, Crosby, Qvale WR: Anderson, Miller, Kearse, Stewart, Hansen, Peake, Marshall, Whitehead, McBride, Sinkfield, Willaims, Stringfellow, Natson, Estime LDE: Williams, Ealy NT: McClendon, Simon, Frazier RDE: Richardson, Pelon OLB: Armstrong, Martin, Mauldin, Winbush ILB: Lee, Worley ILB: Davis, Sam, Dolan OLB: Jenkins, Donahue, Gwacham, Teuhema CB: Claiborne, Roberts, Jones, Coleman CB: Burris, Toliver, R. Robinson, Clark, Keeton SS: Adams, Blanding FS: Maye, Middleton, Cotton-Moya K: Catanzaro P: Edwards LS: Hennessy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stark Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Nice job, but if we sign Cousins do you really think Mac is going to trade up for Darnold? I think it would be more likely that signing Cousins would all but ensure we stay at 6 (see who falls) or maybe even trade back and get some more pics if another team wants to move up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SenorGato Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 Intense! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoJoTownsell1 Posted January 26, 2018 Share Posted January 26, 2018 41 minutes ago, Stark said: Nice job, but if we sign Cousins do you really think Mac is going to trade up for Darnold? I think it would be more likely that signing Cousins would all but ensure we stay at 6 (see who falls) or maybe even trade back and get some more pics if another team wants to move up. Just don't see any team giving a QB "Matt Stafford"money only to use a high pick to draft his replacement. Cousins will be 30. He's in his prime. If you sign him, he's your guy for 5-7 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyjbuddy Posted January 27, 2018 Author Share Posted January 27, 2018 3 hours ago, JoJoTownsell1 said: Just don't see any team giving a QB "Matt Stafford"money only to use a high pick to draft his replacement. Cousins will be 30. He's in his prime. If you sign him, he's your guy for 5-7 years. The contract would be roughly equivalent in value to Stafford's but in a year where the cap space is $12M higher. Every year the highest paid QBs account for approximately 15% - 16% of the cap space. But due to the rising cap number, the QBs that once signed as the highest paid QB (as well as the way some of the contracts are designed), these QBs take up less and less of the cap percentage as time goes on. Therefore the contract doesn't seem that bad in future years. Also, other QBs will replace the current highest paid QBs as some retire and others will sign their second contracts. It may seem like they would be over-paying for a QB but in actuality its just that the contracts of QBs in general have risen approximately $1M per year. The only difference I would say between Stafford's contract and a proposed Cousins' contract, would be to front load the contract in the first 2 years and limit the impact if they were to cut him after the 3rd year. With the way the cap has been rising and QBs salaries have grown, by 2020, Stafford maybe the 4th or 5th highest paid QB at $31.5M. Its not a high cost to pay for a player that has consistently ranked in the top 10 and approaching his prime years. The hesitation with Cousins for me is his ability to win games, especially in critical situations. He reminds me of Stafford in the sense that they both have the talent (and stats) but you wonder if they can't win games because of the surrounding cast, coaching or if its them. Under the right circumstances with Cousins, I think he could do well. He needs to be on a team with a better defense, offensive line, and a running game. Thought the Jets defense isn't much better than the Redskins, they showed flashes throughout the season, but they just got tired from being on the field all the time. As for the offensive line, Mangold was sorely missed but with a change of scheme, things may change for the better. Carpenter came from Seattle, which ran a zone blocking scheme. Beachum was with the Steelers when they were doing the same. Winters and Richburg were deemed better zone blockers coming out of college. Also, adding a running back and a change in scheme will relieve some of the pressure for the QB. 3 hours ago, Stark said: Nice job, but if we sign Cousins do you really think Mac is going to trade up for Darnold? I think it would be more likely that signing Cousins would all but ensure we stay at 6 (see who falls) or maybe even trade back and get some more pics if another team wants to move up. As for drafting Darnold, I do believe he is the best QB in this draft and it would be a rare opportunity to get the top QB at 4. Even though he is a good QB, he could still use some time to develop. He is 20 years old and sitting the bench for 2 - 3 years would allow him to learn and fix some of his mechanical issues. The way I see it is, if Cousins pans out, you can trade Darnold; Also assuming that if Cousins pans out, they won't be picking near the top 20. If Cousins doesn't pan out, you have Darnold, and you can use your early picks on surrounding Darnold with talent. If Cousins does what he did in Washington where he shows flashes but doesn't necessarily win enough to get you there (7 to 9 win seasons, out in the first round of playoffs, etc), you can switch to Darnold. If you didn't have Darnold in the last scenario and you were drafting in the mid teens to twenties, you would not be able to draft a top QB. The way that the Cousins' contract is structured is key. If they can make it so that he could be out after 3 years with having to only pay the pro rated bonus over the last 2 years, the dead money would be offset by Darnold's low rookie contract. Once that is off the books, you could extend Darnold to essentially an equivalent (increases due to cap increase) contract to Cousins and keep the expense of the QB position steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCJet Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 I dont understand how you pay Cousins, a QB who needs help around him, and then use 2 of our top 3 picks on players who won't play. If we can get darnold, we shouldn't spend money on a QB like cousins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paradis Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 3 hours ago, nyjbuddy said: The contract would be roughly equivalent in value to Stafford's but in a year where the cap space is $12M higher. Every year the highest paid QBs account for approximately 15% - 16% of the cap space. But due to the rising cap number, the QBs that once signed as the highest paid QB (as well as the way some of the contracts are designed), these QBs take up less and less of the cap percentage as time goes on. Therefore the contract doesn't seem that bad in future years. Also, other QBs will replace the current highest paid QBs as some retire and others will sign their second contracts. It may seem like they would be over-paying for a QB but in actuality its just that the contracts of QBs in general have risen approximately $1M per year. The only difference I would say between Stafford's contract and a proposed Cousins' contract, would be to front load the contract in the first 2 years and limit the impact if they were to cut him after the 3rd year. With the way the cap has been rising and QBs salaries have grown, by 2020, Stafford maybe the 4th or 5th highest paid QB at $31.5M. Its not a high cost to pay for a player that has consistently ranked in the top 10 and approaching his prime years. The hesitation with Cousins for me is his ability to win games, especially in critical situations. He reminds me of Stafford in the sense that they both have the talent (and stats) but you wonder if they can't win games because of the surrounding cast, coaching or if its them. Under the right circumstances with Cousins, I think he could do well. He needs to be on a team with a better defense, offensive line, and a running game. Thought the Jets defense isn't much better than the Redskins, they showed flashes throughout the season, but they just got tired from being on the field all the time. As for the offensive line, Mangold was sorely missed but with a change of scheme, things may change for the better. Carpenter came from Seattle, which ran a zone blocking scheme. Beachum was with the Steelers when they were doing the same. Winters and Richburg were deemed better zone blockers coming out of college. Also, adding a running back and a change in scheme will relieve some of the pressure for the QB. As for drafting Darnold, I do believe he is the best QB in this draft and it would be a rare opportunity to get the top QB at 4. Even though he is a good QB, he could still use some time to develop. He is 20 years old and sitting the bench for 2 - 3 years would allow him to learn and fix some of his mechanical issues. The way I see it is, if Cousins pans out, you can trade Darnold; Also assuming that if Cousins pans out, they won't be picking near the top 20. If Cousins doesn't pan out, you have Darnold, and you can use your early picks on surrounding Darnold with talent. If Cousins does what he did in Washington where he shows flashes but doesn't necessarily win enough to get you there (7 to 9 win seasons, out in the first round of playoffs, etc), you can switch to Darnold. If you didn't have Darnold in the last scenario and you were drafting in the mid teens to twenties, you would not be able to draft a top QB. The way that the Cousins' contract is structured is key. If they can make it so that he could be out after 3 years with having to only pay the pro rated bonus over the last 2 years, the dead money would be offset by Darnold's low rookie contract. Once that is off the books, you could extend Darnold to essentially an equivalent (increases due to cap increase) contract to Cousins and keep the expense of the QB position steady. dude love the attitude, but never gonna happen. That's not the way the business works, you don't lobby to spend that kind of cheddar on a QB and the promises made to develop the team, then turn around and draft, nay, trade up for a top flight QB..... Just no. Won't happen and it shouldn't. That's truly sign of a GM who has no idea what he's doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenseed4 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 That’s an expensive recipe for QB controversy, and a slap in the face for our prize of FA. Excellent leg work on the mock though!! @nyjbuddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BklynJetsFan85 Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 If we get cousins they need to draft Quentin Nelson (All American guard from Notre Dame) if he's there, or trade back a little and draft Calvin Ridley or they can take the defensive route again but I think it's one of those times where they have to draft offense Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Untouchable Posted January 27, 2018 Share Posted January 27, 2018 I love a lot about this, but there's no way in hell we’re taking a QB within the first 2 rounds if we sign Cousins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bgivs21 Posted January 29, 2018 Share Posted January 29, 2018 If we do sign Cousins there is no way we take QB at 6. At that position you need to take the BPA which, in your scenario, would hopefully be Chubb. Otherwise we hope Mayfield or Allen falls & we're then in a position to trade back. My issue with getting Bell, as good as he is, is that there are so many good RBs coming out of college we could get for cheap. And at 6 we stand a very good chance of getting the highest rated one this draft. If we don't sign Bell we could focus on getting Barkley by trading up & use that money to sign Trey Burton(?) & other decencies. Hell, as much as I don't like his baggage, maybe sign Jarvis Landry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyjbuddy Posted January 29, 2018 Author Share Posted January 29, 2018 I understand its unconventional and I would probably have a similar reaction if someone else had posted this. But here is my explanation for drafting a QB even after signing Cousins. 1. For a franchise that has not had a top caliber QB for years / decades, potentially having 2 top QBs is a problem worth having. You could spend that FA money on other players or draft another position of need in the draft to help build around the QB. But having 2 quality QBs would be better than having none, if the one that you choose does not pan out. 2. Watching Bridgewater, Bradford, Carr / McGloin, Rodgers, Wentz all go down with injuries that jeopardized their seasons and then seeing Keenum, Cook, Hundley, Foles step in, makes me think that you need to have a solid backup, not just a solid starter. Keenum, a young veteran QB with starting experience, has played well this year after Bridgewater and Bradford both went down in consecutive years. He is a cheap veteran that the Vikings lucked out with, and the Vikings did trade a 1st round(2017) and 4th round (2018) for Bradford. Cook, a mid round developmental QB, was forced to step in for Carr and McGloin after the Raiders made the playoffs and Cook had a dismal performance while trying to get the Raiders their first playoff victory in 15 years (still counting). Rodgers went down this year after a 4-2 start and Hundley, a 5th round developmental QB, took over to try to carry the team while Rodgers recovered and attempted to make a late season comeback. Hundley, showed some promise but his 3-6 record showed that he is not good enough or ready yet to get the team to the playoffs. This was the first time the Packers have missed the playoffs since 2008, Rodger's first year as the full-time starter. Wentz's injury in week 14 forced a high priced ($6M) veteran backup QB, Foles, to step in and lead the Eagles to this year's Super Bowl, even after struggling to finish out the season. Then there was the injury to McCown for the Jets and when he went down the season, Petty, another developmental QB, stepped in to try to provide some hope for the future of the franchise at the QB position but he does not seem like the answer. All of this makes me think that you got to have a capable backup, in case the starter goes down. Would hate to see a playoff bound great season turned over to Hackenberg, Petty or Stave at a critical time. Perhaps finding a capable veteran backup, like Keenum, could be the answer but I don't quite see that in this free agency group. Keenum (possible), Bridgewater (possible but still young so he may looking for a starting position), Bradford, McCown, Geno, Fitzpatrick, Moore, Cutler, Anderson, Stanton, Savage, Henne Gabbert, Sanchez, etc. 3. A point that I've brought up before with the trade value of a player like Darnold (or Cousins if it turns out Darnold is better). The Vikings traded a 2017 1st round (14th pick) and a conditional 2018 4th round (late) for Bradford, a former 1st pick overall at 29 years of age. Jimmy Garoppolo was traded to the 49ers after being selected in the 2nd round of the 2014 draft, 62nd overall pick. If Darnold were to be the worthy of being the 4th overall pick, he would be 23 years old and hopefully had enough playing time in preseason, late in games or in week 17 to show his worth. His value for trade may lie conservatively somewhere between a mid 1st and early 2nd round pick. At the time of the trade, you would also know that the 23 year old Darnold is not better than the 33 year old Cousins. I know this will not change minds as it is a really far-fetched idea but thought it would also make for interesting conversations as to how much teams really would invest in a franchise QB (or two). Do you put all your eggs in one basket? Or do you take the Favre/Rodgers or Smith/Mahomes route and give yourself time to see how things play out? By signing Cousins and taking a QB early in the draft, the decision is within the organization and you get to compare the players everyday, rather than trading or signing a player outside the organization that may or may not work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyjbuddy Posted January 30, 2018 Author Share Posted January 30, 2018 What if instead of Cousins, it was Bridgewater. Something like a 3 year / $44M, $12M guaranteed Year 1 $6M salary (guaranteed), $2M bonus Year 2 $16M salary, $2M bonus Year 3 $16M salary, $2M bonus He may not return to his former self but worth a shot? Able to cut him after 1 year at $4M dead money if it doesn't pan out That would free up $20M to allocate to other free agents. Don't Re-sign Dozier, after seeing Crosby at the Senior Bowl I think he could start at RT. Sign Ross Cockrell ($8M) Allen Robinson ($14) Keeping with the same draft, but adjusted the line-up QB: Bridgewater, Darnold, Hackenberg, Stave RB: Bell, Powell, Langford, McGuire, Judd, Thomas, Williams TE: ASJ, Leggett, Gibson LT: Beachum, Kirven LG: Carpenter, Braden C: Richburg, Harrison RG: Shell, Winters, Pryor RT: Crosby, Qvale WR: Robinson, Anderson, Miller, Kearse, Stewart, Hansen, Peake, Marshall, Whitehead, McBride, Sinkfield, Williams, Stringfellow, Natson, Estime LDE: Williams, Ealy NT: McClendon, Simon, Frazier RDE: Richardson, Pelon OLB: Armstrong, Martin, Mauldin, Winbush ILB: Lee, Worley ILB: Davis, Sam, Dolan OLB: Jenkins, Donahue, Gwacham, Teuhema CB: Claiborne, Burris, Roberts, Jones, Coleman CB: Cockrell, Toliver, Burris, R. Robinson, Clark, Keeton SS: Adams, Blanding FS: Maye, Middleton, Cotton-Moya K: Catanzaro P: Edwards LS: Hennessy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetsfansince7 Posted January 31, 2018 Share Posted January 31, 2018 If we do sign Cousins there is no way we take QB at 6. At that position you need to take the BPA which, in your scenario, would hopefully be Chubb. Otherwise we hope Mayfield or Allen falls & we're then in a position to trade back. My issue with getting Bell, as good as he is, is that there are so many good RBs coming out of college we could get for cheap. And at 6 we stand a very good chance of getting the highest rated one this draft. If we don't sign Bell we could focus on getting Barkley by trading up & use that money to sign Trey Burton(?) & other decencies. Hell, as much as I don't like his baggage, maybe sign Jarvis Landry. Agree on the RB - this is the deepest draft for that position I’ve seen in years! Sent from my iPhone using JetNation.com mobile app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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