How many Day 1 Starters from this offseason?

[Jet Nut]

6 hours ago, JiFapono said:

I said so. 

Gotcha

[jgb]

11 hours ago, johnnysd said:

I think that Zach in his rookie season will be better at QB than Sam at any point in his career. Not all Sam's fault, but not only is Zach a WAY better prospect than Sam, his situation is almost dramatically better than Sam ever had. I also think Zach will make the OL better. I need to look up what I said last year but I really think the rookies will be really good and we are a borderline playoff team 

Agree Zach will have a better rookie season than any of Sam’s to date because he better!! Only one guy can be the worst starting QB in the NFL and Darnold is still playing.

Disagree that he’s a “WAY better prospect than Sam,” though. As just one example, NFL.com’s player comp for Darnold coming out was Andrew Luck. Wilson… Jake Plummer. I’m not saying that’s the Bible or anything but the Darnold love was real and almost universal. Hence why so many still can’t bring themselves to write him off yet.

Zach is a fast riser and probably will be better than the worst QB in the league over 3 years from pure statistical likelihood alone. But calling him a way better prospect… seems to be a bit revisionist IMHO no offense.

[JohnnyLV]

4 hours ago, jgb said:

Agree Zach will have a better rookie season than any of Sam’s to date because he better!! Only one guy can be the worst starting QB in the NFL and Darnold is still playing.

Disagree that he’s a “WAY better prospect than Sam,” though. As just one example, NFL.com’s player comp for Darnold coming out was Andrew Luck. Wilson… Jake Plummer. I’m not saying that’s the Bible or anything but the Darnold love was real and almost universal. Hence why so many still can’t bring themselves to write him off yet.

Zach is a fast riser and probably will be better than the worst QB in the league over 3 years from pure statistical likelihood alone. But calling him a way better prospect… seems to be a bit revisionist IMHO no offense.

It's not. NFL.com's player comp is silly and from a drafting perspective I do not think they are viewed as the most insightful group. In fact holding on to Sam as a good prospect is the revisionist history here. Sam had the same issues in college but they were routinely ignored because of his Rose Bowl that locked him in as an elite talent regardless of what followed. 

Ask Simms who the better prospect is. Or Greg Cossell or dozens of others.

Darnold has the size and played for a big school, but Zach beats Sam as a prospect pretty soundly in every other area. Sam's mechanics are not in the same world as Zach, nor are his QB skills, and Zach is even better at throwing on the run than Sam and that was his calling card.

Fact is Sam rode that Rose Bowl to a reputation that was undeserved and looking back it is easy to see the red flags.

[Dunnie]

Not sure what is required to be a day one starter for this dunheap.

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk

[jgb]

4 hours ago, johnnysd said:

It's not. NFL.com's player comp is silly and from a drafting perspective I do not think they are viewed as the most insightful group. In fact holding on to Sam as a good prospect is the revisionist history here. Sam had the same issues in college but they were routinely ignored because of his Rose Bowl that locked him in as an elite talent regardless of what followed. 

Ask Simms who the better prospect is. Or Greg Cossell or dozens of others.

Darnold has the size and played for a big school, but Zach beats Sam as a prospect pretty soundly in every other area. Sam's mechanics are not in the same world as Zach, nor are his QB skills, and Zach is even better at throwing on the run than Sam and that was his calling card.

Fact is Sam rode that Rose Bowl to a reputation that was undeserved and looking back it is easy to see the red flags.

I said it wasn't the Bible. It was an example. Don't get hung up on that. There are dozens/hundreds of examples, I'm obviously not going to list them all.

Many thought Darnold was the best player in the draft. No one thought Wilson was until a very few right who jumped on the train when it became clear the Jets were going that way. And most of them were probably click-fishing to put a contrarian opinion that Lawrence isn't the greatest prospect since Luck out there. Yes I know "every draft is different, if Lawrence was in Darnold's draft he wouldn't have been considered the best player, either." All fair. But Darnold was in the conversation as a consensus top-of-the-draft guy for several years. Wilson for a couple months and kind of came out of nowhere on the strength of a single strong season against (kindly) unformidable competition. No teams were "zucking for Zach."

In any case this "who was the better prospect" is also silly in and of itself. Especially for QBs. I prefer to think of ranges that each player comes in with. For example, for Darnold I saw Mark Sachez downside Tony Romo upside. Hindsight apologies to Sanchez. For Wilson, I think the range is even wider. His college career is so much less informative than Darnold's was in terms of its predictive value. He is, frankly, a boom-or-bust kinda guy to me given the limited sample size and the quality of that sample (competition). Your point about Darnold's college issues being known is a good one. We just knew so much more about who Darnold was before he stepped onto an NFL field than we do about Wilson. If pressed to name a comp roughly in the middle of Wilson's range, I'd say perhaps a more accurate and engaged Jay Cutler. It's pointless to name a downside and upside case because IMHO it includes basically every potential outcome.

Agree to disagree.

[rangerous]

every year every team's fan base gets pumped about the new group of guys being brought in.  heck the the best thing about douglas, so far, is he's not mac and the same goes for saleh not being gase.  but somehow it feels different.  i just don't see the jets making such a radical change at qb without some very good reasons.  and for them to do this means they at least have a building plan which they executing.  i also know that lots of the new players from last season didn't work out as evidenced by the 2-14 record.  but at the same time, last season was just so weird it's hard to believe all of those new guys, especially the draftees, don't have some value and will improve for this season.

we'll see what happens.  it could be a pretty interesting ride.

[JohnnyLV]

7 hours ago, jgb said:

I said it wasn't the Bible. It was an example. Don't get hung up on that. There are dozens/hundreds of examples, I'm obviously not going to list them all.

Many thought Darnold was the best player in the draft. No one thought Wilson was until a very few right who jumped on the train when it became clear the Jets were going that way. And most of them were probably click-fishing to put a contrarian opinion that Lawrence isn't the greatest prospect since Luck out there. Yes I know "every draft is different, if Lawrence was in Darnold's draft he wouldn't have been considered the best player, either." All fair. But Darnold was in the conversation as a consensus top-of-the-draft guy for several years. Wilson for a couple months and kind of came out of nowhere on the strength of a single strong season against (kindly) unformidable competition. No teams were "zucking for Zach."

In any case this "who was the better prospect" is also silly in and of itself. Especially for QBs. I prefer to think of ranges that each player comes in with. For example, for Darnold I saw Mark Sachez downside Tony Romo upside. Hindsight apologies to Sanchez. For Wilson, I think the range is even wider. His college career is so much less informative than Darnold's was in terms of its predictive value. He is, frankly, a boom-or-bust kinda guy to me given the limited sample size and the quality of that sample (competition). Your point about Darnold's college issues being known is a good one. We just knew so much more about who Darnold was before he stepped onto an NFL field than we do about Wilson. If pressed to name a comp roughly in the middle of Wilson's range, I'd say perhaps a more accurate and engaged Jay Cutler. It's pointless to name a downside and upside case because IMHO it includes basically every potential outcome.

Agree to disagree.

Fair enough. Not everyone is sold on Zach. Many people still think he is small and cannot get past the point that he played lesser competition. In the draft forum, several of the frequent posters there hated him and wanted Fields (who I liked the least of the prospects bt far). All I can say is that I think you will be surprised. Also, one thing to remember is that this system made Nick Mullens look like a good QB his rookie season and I don't think anyone thinks Mullens was a better prospect. That said I think we will be a little more like GB than SF

[jgb]

35 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

Fair enough. Not everyone is sold on Zach. Many people still think he is small and cannot get past the point that he played lesser competition. In the draft forum, several of the frequent posters there hated him and wanted Fields (who I liked the least of the prospects bt far). All I can say is that I think you will be surprised. Also, one thing to remember is that this system made Nick Mullens look like a good QB his rookie season and I don't think anyone thinks Mullens was a better prospect. That said I think we will be a little more like GB than SF

Can’t speak for everyone obviously but the lack of competition is a fair factor to consider. Don’t think acknowledging that it is relavent is an issue of “cannot get past it.” I also know you weren’t specifically talking about me.

Finally I think it’s important to recognize that NFL QB is the hardest position — probably in all of sport — to scout. No matter how much conviction we have about a guy (good or bad), it would be good to recognize that very good chance that we are wrong. For example, I would’ve taken Fields over Wilson but I’m not heartbroken because even the pro GMs have a pretty poor success rate with QBs even in the first round. Been wrong before (Darnold) and it’s probably even money or better I am again.

Early returns are positive, which is better than the alternative. Let’s hope we found The Man finally!

[Jetsfan80]

20 hours ago, jgb said:

Zach is a fast riser and probably will be better than the worst QB in the league over 3 years from pure statistical likelihood alone. But calling him a way better prospect… seems to be a bit revisionist IMHO no offense.

 

Zach Wilson QBASE score, 2021:

 

Bust (< 0.0 TDYAR/A)	29.0%
Adequate Starter (0.0 to 0.75 TDYAR/A)	26.6%
Upper Tier (0.75 to 1.5 TDYAR/A)	24.3%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	20.2%

 

 

Sam Darnold QBASE score, 2018:

 

Bust (< 500 DYAR)	51.9%
Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR)	29.0%
Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR)	15.1%
Elite (>2500 DYAR)	4.1%

 

 

Looks like a much better prospect to me!

[jgb]

2 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Zach Wilson QBASE score, 2021:

 

Bust (< 0.0 TDYAR/A)	29.0%
Adequate Starter (0.0 to 0.75 TDYAR/A)	26.6%
Upper Tier (0.75 to 1.5 TDYAR/A)	24.3%
Elite (> 1.5 TDYAR/A)	20.2%

 

 

Sam Darnold QBASE score, 2018:

 

Bust (< 500 DYAR)	51.9%
Adequate Starter (500-1499 DYAR)	29.0%
Upper Tier (1500-2500 DYAR)	15.1%
Elite (>2500 DYAR)	4.1%

 

 

Looks like a much better prospect to me!

I know you’re a QBASE truther and there’s merit to that.

What would be even more convincing is to bump all your posts from 2018 lamenting Jets picking Darnold and calling him a bust waiting to happen while calling for Mayfield to become elite (4th highest QBASE ever at the time).

[slats]

9 minutes ago, jgb said:

I know your a QBASE truther and there’s merit to that.

What would be even more convincing is to bump all your posts from 2018 lamenting Jets picking Darnold and calling him a bust waiting to happen while calling for Mayfield to become elite (4th highest QBASE ever at the time).

There also might be a Josh Allen post or two. 

[Jetsfan80]

28 minutes ago, jgb said:

I know you’re a QBASE truther and there’s merit to that.

What would be even more convincing is to bump all your posts from 2018 lamenting Jets picking Darnold and calling him a bust waiting to happen while calling for Mayfield to become elite (4th highest QBASE ever at the time).

Just because I was wrong about Darnold (and Josh Allen) doesn't mean QBASE lacks merit.  Find me a scout/GM/coach/analyst/etc that hits at the rate QBASE does and I'll shut up about it. 

It's true that it's a better tool for picking out busts than picking out winners.  But its important to always remember that Darnold's entire resume came essentially off one game.  QBASE didn't like him very much.  Wilson's does not, and QBASE likes him a lot more.  I talked myself into Darnold.  I'm leery about Wilson.  Which means he'll obviously be a hit, lol.

So the argument that Wilson is the stronger prospect is a fine one.  The numbers back it up.

[jgb]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Just because I was wrong about Darnold (and Josh Allen) doesn't mean QBASE lacks merit.  Find me a scout/GM/coach/analyst/etc that hits at the rate QBASE does and I'll shut up about it. 

It's true that it's a better tool for picking out busts than picking out winners.  But its important to always remember that Darnold's entire resume came essentially off one game.  QBASE didn't like him very much.  Wilson's does not, and QBASE likes him a lot more.  I talked myself into Darnold.  I'm leery about Wilson.  Which means he'll obviously be a hit, lol.

So the argument that Wilson is the stronger prospect is a fine one.  The numbers back it up.

I literally said in the first line it had merit ?‍♂️

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, jgb said:

I literally said in the first line it had merit ?‍♂️

Right, but I'm struggling to decipher why my opinion of QB prospects should impact how you view QBASE's comparison of the 2 prospects.  

[jgb]

17 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Right, but I'm struggling to decipher why my opinion of QB prospects should impact how you view QBASE's comparison of the 2 prospects.  

Because if you believed you’d stand behind it prospectively and not only to validate that which we’ve already seen retrospectively. I don’t think you trust it as much as you think you do. This is not a slam, just an observation. I don’t think a formula to rule all formulas will crack the QB code anytime soon. You’re right not to fully trust it. So let’s not pretend pointing out two prospects’ QBASE is a mic drop moment in the debate over who was considered a better prospect coming out. The team that most relies on QBASE and was among the earliest adopters is Denver FYI.

[Jetsfan80]

20 minutes ago, jgb said:

Because if you believed you’d stand behind it prospectively and not only to validate that which we’ve already seen retrospectively. I don’t think you trust it as much as you think you do. This is not a slam, just an observation. I don’t think a formula to rule all formulas will crack the QB code anytime soon. You’re right not to fully trust it. So let’s not pretend pointing out two prospects’ QBASE is a mic drop moment in the debate over who was considered a better prospect coming out. The team that most relies on QBASE and was among the earliest adopters is Denver FYI.

Considered by WHO to be a better prospect?  People like me who were duped based on one game?  I learned my lesson.  Hence while I'll lean on QBASE more than my own eyes going forward, even if they mess up a bunch.  

[jgb]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Considered by WHO to be a better prospect?  People like me who were duped based on one game?  I learned my lesson.  Hence while I'll lean on QBASE more than my own eyes going forward, even if they mess up a bunch.  

Who is a better prospect is an opinion and thus opinions are the correct measure. I still contend that Darnold was considered a better prospect, for a longer period of time before he was drafted and by more people than was Wilson. I know it feels weird when we disagree once a week or so but it’s not personal  

[Jetsfan80]

23 minutes ago, jgb said:

Who is a better prospect is an opinion and thus opinions are the correct measure. I still contend that Darnold was considered a better prospect, for a longer period of time before he was drafted and by more people than was Wilson. I know it feels weird when we disagree once a week or so but it’s not personal  

Of course Darnold was considered a bigger prospect by more people.  He had his huge performance on a grand stage, the Rose Bowl, as a freshman, for a much bigger program in USC (one of the 10 or so biggest programs in the country, historically).  Wilson was a late riser at a G5 school, BYU.

Comparing using the same objective measure, QBASE, is a much better way to compare two prospects coming out of school, no?

[jgb]

12 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Of course Darnold was considered a bigger prospect by more people.  He had his huge performance on a grand stage, the Rose Bowl, as a freshman, for a much bigger program in USC (one of the 10 or so biggest programs in the country, historically).  Wilson was a late riser at a G5 school, BYU.

Comparing using the same objective measure, QBASE, is a much better way to compare two prospects coming out of school, no?

That I do not agree with no. The QB position has bedeviled all attempts to simplify it to a formula and there is still a role for the old school approach of shaking the guy’s hand and looking him the eye that needs to be part of the eval process IMHO.

[Jetsfan80]

15 minutes ago, jgb said:

That I do not agree with no. The QB position has bedeviled all attempts to simplify it to a formula and there is still a role for the old school approach of shaking the guy’s hand and looking him the eye that needs to be part of the eval process IMHO.

Obviously QBASE isn't the be-all-end-all.  You still have to interview prospects and watch tape.  But you need analysis like this to tell if you if what your eyes are seeing match up with what the prospect is actually doing out there.  

The same fans/scouts/analysts/GM's who were enamored with Darnold's Rose Bowl performance waved away his FBS-leading turnovers in his final year of school.  You have to take in ALL the available info and make a decision based on that.  Otherwise you just see what you want to see.  And using 1 game and a kid's program to make a judgment on who the better prospect is is obviously far more flawed than anything QBASE is doing.  

I don't personally like Wilson much as a prospect.  But QBASE does, and evidently Douglas did as well after looking at all the available info, so I'm willing to let the process play out and see what happens.  

[jgb]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Obviously QBASE isn't the be-all-end-all.  You still have to interview prospects and watch tape.  But you need analysis like this to tell if you if what your eyes are seeing match up with what the prospect is actually doing out there. 

The same fans/scouts/analysts/GM's who were enamored with Darnold's Rose Bowl performance waved away his FBS-leading turnovers in his final year of school.  You have to take in ALL the available info and make a decision based on that.  Otherwise you just see what you want to see. 

I don't personally like Wilson much as a prospect.  But QBASE does, and evidently Douglas did as well after looking at all the available info, so I'm willing to let the process play out and see what happens.  

It’s all data points and no team does it the same. Hence why I say the only way to have the (honestly pointless) debate of who was the better prospect coming out is to compare the opinions of both as prospects.

[Jetsfan80]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

It’s all data points and no team does it the same. Hence why I say the only way to have the (honestly pointless) debate of who was the better prospect coming out is to compare the opinions of both as prospects.

But what you're doing here, essentially crowd-sourcing opinions, only really tells us who the BIGGER prospect was, not the BETTER prospect.  

[jgb]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

But what you're doing here, essentially crowd-sourcing opinions, only really tells us who the BIGGER prospect was, not the BETTER prospect.  

I don’t understand what we are debating anymore

[jetstream23]

I mean, how can you not trust this guy's scoring?

[Bowles Movement]

Clayton:   “  But do not forget your Bill Parcells:  "You will lose a game for every rookie you start."  By your own admission, there will be rookies playing in the regular offense and defense across the entire team.  They are going to make mistakes.”

 

This might be true if you have Brick and Nick retire and have to plug in rookies.

Or seeing Love replace Rodgers in Green Bay.

Id argue its less true when you have a rookie replacing an underperforming Darnold, AVT replacing a jag guard, and Moore replacing Hogan or Berrios.
   
Sometimes they are upgrades- thats why they get picked high.
 

 

[Jetsfan80]

45 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

Clayton:   “  But do not forget your Bill Parcells:  "You will lose a game for every rookie you start."  By your own admission, there will be rookies playing in the regular offense and defense across the entire team.  They are going to make mistakes.”

 

This might be true if you have Brick and Nick retire and have to plug in rookies.

Or seeing Love replace Rodgers in Green Bay.

Id argue its less true when you have a rookie replacing an underperforming Darnold, AVT replacing a jag guard, and Moore replacing Hogan or Berrios.
   
Sometimes they are upgrades- thats why they get picked high.

 

Sure, but I don't think a single person here thinks that the Jets can't/won't do better than 2 wins this season.  We absolutely upgraded in talent almost across the board.  However, the debate is whether this will be more like a Vegas money line season (about 6 wins) or more like a team that beats expectations (8+ wins, possible playoff contention).

If the Parcells quote tends to be true, I'd say we're looking at 5-6 wins.  

[MichaelScott]

On 6/12/2021 at 8:30 PM, johnnysd said:

I see a lot of people predicting like 5 wins for us and I just do not see it. We are dramatically upgraded at some many positions:

LOCKS (offense): Zach, AVT, E. Moore, Corey Davis, Keelan Cole

Likely (offense): Michael Carter 1 

Possible (offense): Yeboah Tevin Coleman

LOCKS (defense); Lawson, Jarrad Davis, Michael Carter 2

Likely (defense):  Sheldon Rankins, Pinnock, 1 of Sherwood/Nasrildeen

Possible: Echols

Special teams: Hardee

So 6 or 7 new on offense (all upgrades) 5 or 6 on defense (all upgrades)

And someone might still surprise -plus we get some injured players back like Moseley, Mims, Phillips and young players like T. Johnson Adams Guidry, Jackson Berrios etc with more experience

I mean we could start like 60% new players on both sides of the ball. Plus better systems. We are not going to be a bad team. 

At a quick glance, I more or less agree with your list. Carter II has no business at all being a lock, imo. I'd even say "Likely" could even be a bit of a stretch.  Likewise, I think Rankins is closer to a "lock" than " likely" - I think Rankins is much closer to a lock than MC2, and I'm still fine with only calling him Likely. 

After camp, it could be a different convo but I'm assuming this convo is based on where these players are as of today. Today, MC2 has no business on this list 

[Bowles Movement]

10 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

Sure, but I don't think a single person here thinks that the Jets can't/won't do better than 2 wins this season.  We absolutely upgraded in talent almost across the board.  However, the debate is whether this will be more like a Vegas money line season (about 6 wins) or more like a team that beats expectations (8+ wins, possible playoff contention).

If the Parcells quote tends to be true, I'd say we're looking at 5-6 wins.  

The other thing that cant be accounted for is bad luck/injuries, especially to one particular position group.  Last year all our receivers were dinged and out for about 6 wks which didnt help. 

If we are healthy and have better depth, that should translate into more continuity and victories.

[Jetsfan80]

53 minutes ago, Bowles Movement said:

The other thing that cant be accounted for is bad luck/injuries, especially to one particular position group.  Last year all our receivers were dinged and out for about 6 wks which didnt help. 

If we are healthy and have better depth, that should translate into more continuity and victories.

Yes, you would hope.  But even still, absolute best case scenario for me is 8 wins.  That would still be a massive improvement over 2 wins.  

[Maynard13]

 

On 6/13/2021 at 10:07 AM, Jethead said:

As Zach goes, so go the Jets. Andale!

The 2021 NY Jets

Speedy Gonzalez as Zach Wilson

Yeppa Yeppa Andale Andale Arriba