For everyone calling for Jimmy G/Rodgers/Carr/other big name vet...

[UnknownJetFan]

On 12/18/2022 at 9:39 PM, Jetsfan80 said:

If that’s your standard, Carr and Jimmy G are JAGs who will cost a lot more.  

White’s inability to stay healthy means you have to bring in 1-2 new bodies.   I get that.  But it does not also mean you HAVE to let White walk.  

Basically whether it is White, Wilson or whoever the best scenario is to invest as much as humanly possible in the Oline with draft picks and FA to keep the QBs healthy. Right now if we were better there we would be able to do what everyone team and fans wanted, evaluate White over the rest of this season.

[Lith]

8 minutes ago, undertow said:

Fans overvalue QBs on other teams that they don't see every snap.... Carr is a solid QB but he's not taking anyone to a Super Bowl....either is Gardner friggin Minshew.  I don't think Mike White is winning us a SB but he can get us as far as any of these 2nd tier QBs that we will have to pay 30 mil.

But we still need a competent NFL QB that can have us playing competitively until we find that true franchise guy.  I am not prepared to trade a boatload of picks and have to pay Carr - his contract calls for $31M in 23, $42M in 24 and 25.  But we need a guy who can run a competent NFL offense. 

Wilson will likely still be around next year, but I hope we add a Minshew type who can give us competent if Zach still hasn't figured it out (which I don't think he will do), and add a day 2 guy in the draft who is under no pressure to start immediately.  I would have been ok with White without the injury history. 

Minshew/White do not preclude us from trying to find a franchise guy, but they give us a competent bridge until we find our guy.

[WhartonJet]

Just now, Lith said:

But we still need a competent NFL QB that can have us playing competitively until we find that true franchise guy.  I am not prepared to trade a boatload of picks and have to pay Carr - his contract calls for $31M in 23, $42M in 24 and 25.  But we need a guy who can run a competent NFL offense. 

Wilson will likely still be around next year, but I hope we add a Minshew type who can give us competent if Zach still hasn't figured it out (which I don't think he will do), and add a day 2 guy in the draft who is under no pressure to start immediately.  I would have been ok with White without the injury history. 

Minshew/White do not preclude us from trying to find a franchise guy, but they give us a competent bridge until we find our guy.

This is sound logic, but the problem with this is while we have a "bridge" at QB, our window of cheap rookie contracts continues to close.  We will eventually need to pay Quinnen, Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner, Breece Hall, and others.  These guys all look like they will need to be paid at or near the top of their respective positions.  So, it behooves us to be aggressive in getting a franchise QB starting next year.

This is obviously easier said that done, but given the position we are in I think a big swing at a franchise QB makes alot of sense this offseason, even at the cost of draft capital and cap space.

[Barry McCockinner]

6 minutes ago, Lith said:

But we still need a competent NFL QB that can have us playing competitively until we find that true franchise guy.  I am not prepared to trade a boatload of picks and have to pay Carr - his contract calls for $31M in 23, $42M in 24 and 25.  But we need a guy who can run a competent NFL offense. 

Wilson will likely still be around next year, but I hope we add a Minshew type who can give us competent if Zach still hasn't figured it out (which I don't think he will do), and add a day 2 guy in the draft who is under no pressure to start immediately.  I would have been ok with White without the injury history. 

Minshew/White do not preclude us from trying to find a franchise guy, but they give us a competent bridge until we find our guy.

Hypothetical: Josh McDaniels convinces the Raiders GM to sign Tom Brady and move on from Carr

Is it really going to cost a boat load of picks to relieve the Raiders from the Carr contract?

I don't know the answer but I suspect he won't cost as much in a trade as some are assuming in this scenario. I don't know what other scenario the Raiders are moving on from Carr, btw.

Would they trade Carr for a 2nd and Zach Wilson in that scenario?

[Lith]

2 minutes ago, WhartonJet said:

This is sound logic, but the problem with this is while we have a "bridge" at QB, our window of cheap rookie contracts continues to close.  We will eventually need to pay Quinnen, Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner, Breece Hall, and others.  These guys all look like they will need to be paid at or near the top of their respective positions.  So, it behooves us to be aggressive in getting a franchise QB starting next year.

This is obviously easier said that done, but given the position we are in I think a big swing at a franchise QB makes alot of sense this offseason, even at the cost of draft capital and cap space.

But our bridge QB is a free agent.  And he can't stay healthy.  Unless you are referring to Wilson as a bridge, but I am not sure he is the guy to give us competent NFL caliber play.  With QBs, there is no middle class,  I am not sure what guys like MInshew or even White will get in FA, but we need a guy like that to be competitive. 

Who is out there that we can get that would be a potential franchise guy -- if you are suggesting Carr, then we just disagree on what his ceiling is.  

[Ron Rico]

I'd like to see a more balanced offense. If Zach is our QB next year and I think that he will be, we have to be able to run the ball. If we can cut down on the number of passes, the completion percentage could go up significantly. And by significantly, I mean 60%. That's all we need out of Zach. And invert his TD / INT ratio. A winning formula is an offense that runs the ball through Breece Hall with an occasional designed play where Zach can roll out and go bombs away. 

Right now, Zach's pass attempts are exorbitantly high. He's being asked to throw the ball as if he's on the same talent level as Tom Brady and Mahomes. Where those guys can overcome mistakes, Zach can't. You cut down on the INT's by cutting down on passing plays. Let the running game score TD's or just settle for 3. I know that's not sexy but that's reality. Figure out a way. 

[WhartonJet]

1 minute ago, Lith said:

But our bridge QB is a free agent.  And he can't stay healthy.  Unless you are referring to Wilson as a bridge, but I am not sure he is the guy to give us competent NFL caliber play.  With QBs, there is no middle class,  I am not sure what guys like MInshew or even White will get in FA, but we need a guy like that to be competitive. 

Who is out there that we can get that would be a potential franchise guy -- if you are suggesting Carr, then we just disagree on what his ceiling is.  

I agree Carr would not be worth the draft capital/contract it would take to get him because I think he is too inconsistent.  Others will point out he is light years ahead of what we have had at the QB position for a decade, but I would not trade for Carr.  

The guy that intrigues me and I believe could be had is Aaron Rodgers.  People are turned off by the personality, but people forget he was an MVP just last year.  Even with his down year in 2022, he has put up numbers comparable to Carr's career average.  Obviously, the age is a concern, but I do think he has 2-3 years of elite play left in him,  We run a similar system to Green Bay, and we have legit weapons Rodgers could flourish with.

[jgb]

35 minutes ago, undertow said:

Fans overvalue QBs on other teams that they don't see every snap.... Carr is a solid QB but he's not taking anyone to a Super Bowl....either is Gardner friggin Minshew.  I don't think Mike White is winning us a SB but he can get us as far as any of these 2nd tier QBs that we will have to pay 30 mil.

Gardner Minshew is making $30M? Lol. Uh huh. What’s up with this “can’t make the SB with X” anyway? You upgrade when you can you don’t just throw up your hands and say “since we don’t think we can with a championship with these guys let’s stick with our current bust.”

[Barry McCockinner]

7 minutes ago, WhartonJet said:

I agree Carr would not be worth the draft capital/contract it would take to get him because I think he is too inconsistent.  Others will point out he is light years ahead of what we have had at the QB position for a decade, but I would not trade for Carr.  

The guy that intrigues me and I believe could be had is Aaron Rodgers.  People are turned off by the personality, but people forget he was an MVP just last year.  Even with his down year in 2022, he has put up numbers comparable to Carr's career average.  Obviously, the age is a concern, but I do think he has 2-3 years of elite play left in him,  We run a similar system to Green Bay, and we have legit weapons Rodgers could flourish with.

Can you be more specific about your concern with Carr's inconsistency? From a pure macro numbers perspective he's been pretty damn consistent and rarely misses a game.

 

[JiFtheOracle]

3 minutes ago, jgb said:

Gardner Minshew is making $30M? Lol. Uh huh. What’s up with this “can’t make the SB with X” anyway? You upgrade when you can you don’t just throw up your hands and say “since we don’t think we can with a championship with these guys let’s stick with our current bust.”

Matt Ryan, Jared Goff, Nick Foles, Jimmy G, Cam Newton, a shell of Manning and Osweiler, Flacco, Kaepernick - have all participated in a Super Bowl.  They can absolutely get there with this D, those weapons and competent QB play. 

[undertow]

1 minute ago, jgb said:

Gardner Minshew is making $30M? Lol. Uh huh. What’s up with this “can’t make the SB with X” anyway? You upgrade when you can you don’t just throw up your hands and say “since we don’t think we can with a championship with these guys let’s stick with our current bust.”

I was talking about replacing White not Wilson....I don't think QBs in the 10-20 range get us any further than Mike White does....and Gardner Minshew isn't John Elway enough already.

[jgb]

4 minutes ago, undertow said:

I was talking about replacing White not Wilson....I don't think QBs in the 10-20 range get us any further than Mike White does....and Gardner Minshew isn't John Elway enough already.

White isn’t the most durable guy. If JD doesn’t bring in a vet he should be run out of town.

And again the comment that Gardner isn’t Elway — who cares!! That’s a horrendous philosophy for building a team.

[carlito1171]

27 minutes ago, WhartonJet said:

This is sound logic, but the problem with this is while we have a "bridge" at QB, our window of cheap rookie contracts continues to close.  We will eventually need to pay Quinnen, Garrett Wilson, Sauce Gardner, Breece Hall, and others.  These guys all look like they will need to be paid at or near the top of their respective positions.  So, it behooves us to be aggressive in getting a franchise QB starting next year.

This is obviously easier said that done, but given the position we are in I think a big swing at a franchise QB makes alot of sense this offseason, even at the cost of draft capital and cap space.

It can make sense, but without a franchise guy in FA, it takes two teams to tango for a trade to happen....

Even if Lamar, Carr and Rodgers we're all FAs and we had the money, you still have to convince them to sign on the dotted line. 

If you can land one via trade...great? If not...what are you doing? Standing pat where we are when we know we have issues to address at the position?

[jgb]

7 minutes ago, JiFields said:

Matt Ryan, Jared Goff, Nick Foles, Jimmy G, Cam Newton, a shell of Manning and Osweiler, Flacco, Kaepernick - have all participated in a Super Bowl.  They can absolutely get there with this D, those weapons and competent QB play. 

I think they are worried that yet another lowly draft pick QB will outperform their Tiger Beat centerfold.

[carlito1171]

4 minutes ago, undertow said:

I was talking about replacing White not Wilson....I don't think QBs in the 10-20 range get us any further than Mike White does....and Gardner Minshew isn't John Elway enough already.

A top 10-20 QB can't get us further then MW?! Excuse me? LOL

What has he done so far...He's gotten us to 1-2 until he had to be sidelined for yet another injury

The same way ppl overrate other people's teams QBs....we tend to overrate our own.....

MW is our best option for this season....but he ain't Elway either

[Barry McCockinner]

2 minutes ago, carlito1171 said:

It can make sense, but without a franchise guy in FA, it takes two teams to tango for a trade to happen....

Even if Lamar, Carr and Rodgers we're all FAs and we had the money, you still have to convince them to sign on the dotted line. 

If you can land one via trade...great? If not...what are you doing? Standing pat where we are when we know we have issues to address at the position?

I think the jets will be an attractive option for free agent QBs this off-season.

[WhartonJet]

Just now, Barry McCockinner said:

Can you be more specific about your concern with Carr's inconsistency? From a pure macro numbers perspective he's been pretty damn consistent and rarely misses a game.

 

Let me first acknowledge that Carr would be the best QB the Jets have had since Pennington, and he is still relatively young.  But, when I watch him play I am constantly underwhelmed.  He seems to have head scratching clunker games every year.  Even this year with a true # 1 in Davante Adams, he has this problem.   Look at the stat lines in these 3 games from Carr this year and tell me who that reminds you of.

Comp %       Yards   TD   INT      Rating

55.0               137        0       2        36.9

57.7               101        0       1        50.3

61.8               188        0       0       76.6

So, if I am pushing my chips to the middle to gamble on a franchise QB, Carr is not the guy I'd pick.

 

[undertow]

1 minute ago, carlito1171 said:

A top 10-20 QB can't get us further then MW?! Excuse me? LOL

What has he done so far...He's gotten us to 1-2 until he had to be sidelined for yet another injury

The same way ppl overrate other people's teams QBs....we tend to overrate our own.....

MW is our best option for this season....but he ain't Elway either

I'm not overrating MW I just don't think there are anymore than 10 franchise QBs on the planet....I think you are overrating guys in that 10-20 range.

[jgb]

20 minutes ago, undertow said:

I'm not overrating MW I just don't think there are anymore than 10 franchise QBs on the planet....I think you are overrating guys in that 10-20 range.

Right now we have #32 and Paper Maché Mike who is competent when healthy. A top 20 QB who is likely to play a full year? SIGN ME UP BUTTERCUP!

[Barry McCockinner]

20 minutes ago, WhartonJet said:

Let me first acknowledge that Carr would be the best QB the Jets have had since Pennington, and he is still relatively young.  But, when I watch him play I am constantly underwhelmed.  He seems to have head scratching clunker games every year.  Even this year with a true # 1 in Davante Adams, he has this problem.   Look at the stat lines in these 3 games from Carr this year and tell me who that reminds you of.

Comp %       Yards   TD   INT      Rating

55.0               137        0       2        36.9

57.7               101        0       1        50.3

61.8               188        0       0       76.6

So, if I am pushing my chips to the middle to gamble on a franchise QB, Carr is not the guy I'd pick.

 

You can usually find a couple of sub-80 rating games (seems like the metric you're using?) from Rodgers in a year too. Good QBs have some bad games.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RodgAa00/gamelog/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CarrDe02/gamelog/

even tom brady has them littered throughout his career

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00/gamelog/

 

[WhartonJet]

Just now, Barry McCockinner said:

You can usually find a couple of sub-80 rating games (seems like the metric you're using?) from Rodgers in a year too. Good QBs have some bad games.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RodgAa00/gamelog/

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CarrDe02/gamelog/

even tom brady has them littered throughout his career

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00/gamelog/

 

Agreed.  But look at the TD-INT ratios for Carr and Rodgers.  Unless you think Rodgers' age will make him fall off a cliff, there is no real comparison there.  That is part of the reason I really like the idea for Rodgers on this team.  He protects the ball really well.  If we can limit turnovers with this defense, I like our chances at winning with Rodgers consistently.

[undertow]

Just now, jgb said:

Right now we have #32 and Glass Joe who is competent when healthy. A top 20 QB who is likely to play a full year? SIGN ME UP BUTTERCUP!

I'll take my chances with Mike White over the Carrs, Cousins, and Tannehills of the world for the next year but that's just me....especially at 35 mil a year Junior Mint.

[carlito1171]

30 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I think the jets will be an attractive option for free agent QBs this off-season.

I think we'll def be a more attractive destination for sure....but the pool will be slim pickings 

[prime21]

Drafting a QB is a total roll of the dice.  We have drafted quite a few in the hopes they will carry the team.   

JD had done a good job building this roster to be competitive regardless of the QB.  One day we will find the right guy but for this roster we need a someone that can stay healthy and play smart.    We were very close to having 10 wins right now with a decent game managing QB. 

[Barry McCockinner]

13 minutes ago, WhartonJet said:

Agreed.  But look at the TD-INT ratios for Carr and Rodgers.  Unless you think Rodgers' age will make him fall off a cliff, there is no real comparison there.  That is part of the reason I really like the idea for Rodgers on this team.  He protects the ball really well.  If we can limit turnovers with this defense, I like our chances at winning with Rodgers consistently.

Rodgers is the better QB, without a doubt. He's also older, and has a history of choking in big games. How many years are you realistically getting out of Rodgers, who has been publicly discussing retirement for a couple of years? Carr has a good 5 - 10 years left. You're giving up assets to get either guy.

This team can definitely win a chip w/Rodgers so I wouldn't be mad if we got him. I just see Carr as a better long term move, and closer to a JD move than Rodgers. Both would be outside his typical mode of operation.

[Lith]

52 minutes ago, jgb said:

Gardner Minshew is making $30M? Lol. Uh huh. What’s up with this “can’t make the SB with X” anyway? You upgrade when you can you don’t just throw up your hands and say “since we don’t think we can with a championship with these guys let’s stick with our current bust.”

I don't see MInshew making that kind of money.  Or any other bridge QB that nas not been a long term starter.  For this season there are 13 QBs with contrcts that average over $30M, 14 if you count Ryan Tannehill at $29.5M.  Next highest paid is $15M.  MInshew has played well in short stretches, but never proven that he can win consistently over a full season.  I don't see him as a $30M guy.

If we can get MInshew as an FA for in the $15M-$18M range, I would be all over that.  

[bonkertons]

Am I wrong for not really counting this recent injury as part of White being prone to injury?  I mean the guy ate a ******* Rhyno spear.  I doubt even Cal Ripken's iron ribs would have held up.  Like if I have 2 football injuries and then a year later get hit by a train, is that part of me being injury prone?  

[bonkertons]

Also, no matter what Wilson will be on this team next year.  My guess is that White will be brought back as the #1, and we will draft a kid in round 4 or later.  Continue building the line and adding to the defense.  If QB is still even a discussion by the end of 2023/24, then you go out and get "the guy".  Whether that's a 1st round pick or a big ticket FA or trade.  

 

I think you need to finish seeing what you have in White before going all in on a Carr or Jimmy G.  Even to some extent, seeing what you have in Wilson.  Maybe something clicks, he goes into this offseason hungry, puts in the work, etc.  I think White bought himself another year as the #1 with his play, and this injury should keep his cost down to the point where he can transition into backup duty beyond next season if it doesn't work out.  But yeah, as of now, he's my choice for next year.

[jgb]

1 hour ago, Lith said:

I don't see MInshew making that kind of money.  Or any other bridge QB that nas not been a long term starter.  For this season there are 13 QBs with contrcts that average over $30M, 14 if you count Ryan Tannehill at $29.5M.  Next highest paid is $15M.  MInshew has played well in short stretches, but never proven that he can win consistently over a full season.  I don't see him as a $30M guy.

If we can get MInshew as an FA for in the $15M-$18M range, I would be all over that.  

The “Gardner isn’t worth $30M!” Is straw manning at its finest. I can play that game too — Mahomes isn’t worth eleventy-billion! Hard pass! Hard pass!

[Barry McCockinner]

24 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

Am I wrong for not really counting this recent injury as part of White being prone to injury?  I mean the guy ate a ******* Rhyno spear.  I doubt even Cal Ripken's iron ribs would have held up.  Like if I have 2 football injuries and then a year later get hit by a train, is that part of me being injury prone?  

Started 6 games, left 3 due to injury. It would be GM malpractice to leave the 2023 Jets one MW injury from ZW being the starter.

This team is ready to win now.

[Barry McCockinner]

19 minutes ago, bonkertons said:

Also, no matter what Wilson will be on this team next year.  My guess is that White will be brought back as the #1, and we will draft a kid in round 4 or later.  Continue building the line and adding to the defense.  If QB is still even a discussion by the end of 2023/24, then you go out and get "the guy".  Whether that's a 1st round pick or a big ticket FA or trade.  

 

I think you need to finish seeing what you have in White before going all in on a Carr or Jimmy G.  Even to some extent, seeing what you have in Wilson.  Maybe something clicks, he goes into this offseason hungry, puts in the work, etc.  I think White bought himself another year as the #1 with his play, and this injury should keep his cost down to the point where he can transition into backup duty beyond next season if it doesn't work out.  But yeah, as of now, he's my choice for next year.

I think the most likely scenario is that Wilson is on the roster next year. That said, if the Jets can find a trade partner they can get out in a cap friendly way. Who would want to trade for him though?

[jgb]

2 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Started 6 games, left 3 due to injury. It would be GM malpractice to leave the 2023 Jets one MW injury from ZW being the starter.

That’s what they really want though. Shortest path possible to roll Headband McBusterson back out there so they can have another shot at redemption in the online e-peen measuring contest. 

[bonkertons]

15 minutes ago, Barry McCockinner said:

I think the most likely scenario is that Wilson is on the roster next year. That said, if the Jets can find a trade partner they can get out in a cap friendly way. Who would want to trade for him though?

 

As far as I know you can only really trade him after June 1st otherwise you're eating all that dead cap.  As far as who would trade for him?  No idea if anyone would, but it's possible there are Chris Simms' and Steve Young's out there in other organizations who feel like they can fix this dude, or put him in a position to succeed(in their eyes).  Still we're probably only looking at a 2nd or 3rd in a best case scenario.  Probably less.

 

As far as your previous post, the answer would be Zach(if he stays).  If you trade Zach, maybe a guy like Dalton or something.  No matter what though it's not going to be a guy anyone will say "we can win a SB with this man!" with.  It'll be a backup, maybe a decent one, maybe not.  Ideally a kid as well, like I said.  Perhaps a kid like Anthony Richardson if he's there in the 1st and we feel he's worth the gamble; perhaps a kid like Tanner McKee in the 3rd or 4th if he lasts that long.  Either way that would be my ideal scenario: 

 

1. White

2. Wilson or a cheap vet(Dalton/Minshew/etc)

3. Rookie (A. Richardson or a later pick like McKee/Nix/Leary/etc)

[OtherwiseHappyinLife]

On 12/18/2022 at 9:01 PM, Beerfish said:

I'd be surprised if they were able to dump wilson this off season even if they want to. 

The next three games need to be a White audition.  Try and resign White but if he wants too much, see ya.

No matter what even if they stay with white and wilson they need to bring in a legit competitor, not joe flacco.

The guy has a guaranteed contract and his signing bonus would only accelerate, making the cap hit worse this year.  They might consider it if they could get a premium pick in return but nobody is offering that for this version of Zach.  It would be smarter to see if they can fix some of his mental issues (yips, processing speed) and then re-evaluate after the pre-season.

Agree on White audition for the last 2 games, if he is healthy enough.

Flacco should be sent to the glue factory.

[jgb]

1 hour ago, Barry McCockinner said:

Started 6 games, left 3 due to injury. It would be GM malpractice to leave the 2023 Jets one MW injury from ZW being the starter.

This team is ready to win now.

Barry but going all eggs in one basket and filling out the rest of the QB room with has-beens and never-wuzzes is better for the salary cap.