Mafia - Red Scare Game Thread

[ZachEY]

Of course, but as I already stated, in a game with 12 players, we don't have a lot of laters...

If there are 4 commies out there, then after tonight, we're looking at a good chance of a 4 vs 6 scenario.

Obviously, if there are only 3, we're looking at a 7 vs 3 scenario which leaves us in a better position, but not a great one. Further, the .6 has to mean something, so I doubt the later is even as good as the 7 vs 3 situation.

Still awaiting a retort here from anyone who thinks no lynch isn't pro-town.

[ZachEY]

EY is playing like Mafia sabermetrics. His play is different this time around, not as aggressive as usual.

That's because I am working on my Stats take home final as we speak and haven't had a chance to make a case on anyone yet. I'm also rarely agressive day 1 unless I'm confident, and no one else has presented a case that's made me think twice about it.

I will reread shortly.

[Verbal]

I'll bite. No Lynch isn't pro-town. You give the mafia a free NK without being able to get voting history on Day 1. Yeah yeah, the mafia scatter their votes. Doesn't matter - voting history can still be helpful, especially when you analyze it over the course of several days.

Also, because there is a chance, however small, that you can lynch a mafia on Day 1, you should always take that chance. To vote a No Lynch is to take that chance away and guarantee the mafia their free NK without repercussions.

Having said that, there are cases where a No Lynch can be useful, but outside of endgame situations where the Finder is alive and we need that 1 more viewing opportunity before the final lynch ends the game, I would never vote for a No Lynch.

[Vicious89x]

That's because I am working on my Stats take home final as we speak and haven't had a chance to make a case on anyone yet. I'm also rarely agressive day 1 unless I'm confident, and no one else has presented a case that's made me think twice about it.

I will reread shortly.

LOL. I follow, and I see your point but Mafia isn't just a game of #'s, at this point the arguments are to follow the #'s or to follow "reads". For me I don't like the #'s game right now.

[ZachEY]

I'll bite. No Lynch isn't pro-town. You give the mafia a free NK without being able to get voting history on Day 1. Yeah yeah, the mafia scatter their votes. Doesn't matter - voting history can still be helpful, especially when you analyze it over the course of several days.

Also, because there is a chance, however small, that you can lynch a mafia on Day 1, you should always take that chance. To vote a No Lynch is to take that chance away and guarantee the mafia their free NK without repercussions.

Having said that, there are cases where a No Lynch can be useful, but outside of endgame situations where the Finder is alive and we need that 1 more viewing opportunity before the final lynch ends the game, I would never vote for a No Lynch.

And the whole point has always been, we don't have 'several days' to analyze votes over.

If this was a 16 player game, I wouldn't think it's a good idea, but as I put the numbers above, it's possible that we're in something close to a 4 vs 6 scenario tomorrow. That's a dangerous place to be.

[Smashmouth]

According to your plan, we have a 0% chance of getting a mafia on a Day 1 lynch. If we forget about the No Lynch and actually lynch somebody, at least that percentage chance goes up from the zero you propose. I know you already know this, but using the "small chance to lynch a commie" doesn't work when your plan drops that percentage to nil.

Are we thinking traditional Mafia or are we thinking outside the box ? I also dont think I ever proposed zero, just very bad odds.

Still awaiting a retort here from anyone who thinks no lynch isn't pro-town.

[Irish Jet]

Can anyone tell me the last time the town hit a mafia member on the first day? I think it was when EY outed Irish, but Im not sure that was day 1 or day 2 in that game.

Yes it was. Although it's important to note it was Mafia hitting Mafia.

Regardless it's a very good point and it makes it all the more interesting that it's EY of all people pushing for a no lynch. He says he's rarely aggressive on day 1 unless he's confident, well surely the way to be confident would be to aqquire more information rather than just waste the phase away with a quick no lynch. Day 1 can be considered a crapshoot but it's not completely useless and EY knows this.

A no lynch IMO is a good alternative to a random lynch but nothing more. I'm putting my vote on Yellin. I don't like the way he's playing at all.

Vote: EY

[Doggin94it]

Vote Count

EY (4) - CTM, Pac, Slats, Irish

No lynch (3) - JVoR, EY, Smashmouth

Smashmouth (1) - Klecko

JVoR (3) - Vicious, JiF, Crusher

Not voting: Verbal

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

Deadline: Monday morning at 9 am. All further days will be 72 hours.

[ZachEY]

Yes it was. Although it's important to note it was Mafia hitting Mafia.

Regardless it's a very good point and it makes it all the more interesting that it's EY of all people pushing for a no lynch. He says he's rarely aggressive on day 1 unless he's confident, well surely the way to be confident would be to aqquire more information rather than just waste the phase away with a quick no lynch. Day 1 can be considered a crapshoot but it's not completely useless and EY knows this.

A no lynch IMO is a good alternative to a random lynch but nothing more. I'm putting my vote on Yellin. I don't like the way he's playing at all.

Vote: EY

LOL.

So, the theory goes, in a 12 player game, without any pressure on any particular player that I was trying to deflect from, as scum, I decided that it was in my best interest to sell not killing anyone, when I had at worst, a 66% chance of killing an innocent and then go into the night and kill another, getting myself down to at worst, a 7 vs 3 scenario and at best a 6 vs 4 scenario.

I think everyone who voted for me, because you're not all commies, should take a look at that theory and state that they agree with it, because that is exactly what you are voting for.

[Verbal]

And the whole point has always been, we don't have 'several days' to analyze votes over.

If this was a 16 player game, I wouldn't think it's a good idea, but as I put the numbers above, it's possible that we're in something close to a 4 vs 6 scenario tomorrow. That's a dangerous place to be.

Huh? Where are we getting this 66% chance for hitting townies? In a 12 player mafia game, there are likely 3 mafia. Usually 1/4 of the players are mafia, or not town-aligned.

[Smashmouth]

Huh? Where are we getting this 66% chance for hitting townies? In a 12 player mafia game, there are likely 3 mafia. Usually 1/4 of the players are mafia, or not town-aligned.

ok so that makes it a 75% chance which makes it worse so whats your point ?

[Irish Jet]

LOL.

So, the theory goes, in a 12 player game, without any pressure on any particular player that I was trying to deflect from, as scum, I decided that it was in my best interest to sell not killing anyone, when I had at worst, a 66% chance of killing an innocent and then go into the night and kill another, getting myself down to at worst, a 7 vs 3 scenario and at best a 6 vs 4 scenario.

I think everyone who voted for me, because you're not all commies, should take a look at that theory and state that they agree with it, because that is exactly what you are voting for.

No, what I'm questioning is why you're trying to sell it now without any immediate threat of a random lynch and don't give me this BS that a quick no lynch wouldn't help the scum. Are you serious?

We'd have absolutely nothing to work with down the line if this is your plan. No voting patterns, no meaningful discussion, no pressure, nothing. Wouldn't we be right back in the same position come day 2? Makes no sense at all.

[Verbal]

Just wondering where the numbers are coming from....

Besides, it doesn't really matter if the number is 66%, 75%, or 90%. A No Lynch will 100% NOT hit a mafia.

Yeah, I know it also doesn't hit an innocent. But our advantage is our numbers, and this advantage is never larger than Day 1. So to No Lynch on Day 1 doesn't make sense to me. It is just my opinion, however. I'll just vote for you if you don't agree.

[Smashmouth]

No, what I'm questioning is why you're trying to sell it now without any immediate threat of a random lynch and don't give me this BS that a quick no lynch wouldn't help the scum. Are you serious?

We'd have absolutely nothing to work with down the line if this is your plan. No voting patterns, no meaningful discussion, no pressure, nothing. Wouldn't we be right back in the same position come day 2? Makes no sense at all.

Just wondering where the numbers are coming from....

Besides, it doesn't really matter if the number is 66%, 75%, or 90%. A No Lynch will 100% NOT hit a mafia.

Yeah, I know it also doesn't hit an innocent. But our advantage is our numbers, and this advantage is never larger than Day 1. So to No Lynch on Day 1 doesn't make sense to me. It is just my opinion, however. I'll just vote for you if you don't agree.

Guys this is a short game with 12 people. Your talking about voting patterns before the first vote is even in. Also its not like your going to have numerous patterns to evaluate in this particular game. Its possible 3 people can die if we get the first vote wrong and lynch a townie. Then the town is finished. Then you get to evaluate one voting pattern when its a damn good possibility the Commies scattered their vote . Where does that leave the town on day 2 ? Explain that to me.

As for a quick lynch are you kidding ? There are 257 posts here to evaluate and just on this topic alone I feel im coming up with some pretty good evaluations on who might be a commie and they might actully surprise you.

[ZachEY]

Huh? Where are we getting this 66% chance for hitting townies? In a 12 player mafia game, there are likely 3 mafia. Usually 1/4 of the players are mafia, or not town-aligned.

9 Town/12 Player = 75% chance we hit town

8 Town/12 Player = 66% chance we hit town

[CTM]

Of course, but as I already stated, in a game with 12 players, we don't have a lot of laters...

If there are 4 commies out there, then after tonight, we're looking at a good chance of a 4 vs 6 scenario.

Obviously, if there are only 3, we're looking at a 7 vs 3 scenario which leaves us in a better position, but not a great one. Further, the .6 has to mean something, so I doubt the later is even as good as the 7 vs 3 situation.

If there's 4 commies, we have to have some juice on town side..

[ZachEY]

No, what I'm questioning is why you're trying to sell it now without any immediate threat of a random lynch and don't give me this BS that a quick no lynch wouldn't help the scum. Are you serious?

We'd have absolutely nothing to work with down the line if this is your plan. No voting patterns, no meaningful discussion, no pressure, nothing. Wouldn't we be right back in the same position come day 2? Makes no sense at all.

Yes I am serious, and saying 'are you serious' is not a counterpoint.

The point is, I'm concerned we don't have much 'down the line' as you contend. We know for certain that there is at least 3 scum, which in all likelihood puts us at 7 vs 3 tomorrow. Which is not exactly a position of strength. We also have no idea what .6 means, but I'd be shocked if it's nothing.

[CTM]

And the whole point has always been, we don't have 'several days' to analyze votes over.

If this was a 16 player game, I wouldn't think it's a good idea, but as I put the numbers above, it's possible that we're in something close to a 4 vs 6 scenario tomorrow. That's a dangerous place to be.

You are making your case on a string of events that all together are unlikely. Starting with the fact that 8 on 4 doesn't work unless the town has some additional powers..

And if it is as dire as you think, 8 on 4, forfeiting opportunities to kill scum is still a bad idea. Just look a the most likely of scenarios

No lynch and townie gets NK, cop gets nothing, it is 7-4 tomorrow and we have no information.

what do you do then? No lynch again and hope the cop comes through? Or do you risk a mislynch and go into day 3 at lynch or lose 6-5

[ZachEY]

If there's 4 commies, we have to have some juice on town side..

I have no doubt we do... A no lynch also prevents a reveal. As I said, I still need to go back and re-read the whole thread, but a No Lynch is better than an innocent lynch as we simply wont have the days to figure out any voting patterns.

[CTM]

LOL.

So, the theory goes, in a 12 player game, without any pressure on any particular player that I was trying to deflect from, as scum, I decided that it was in my best interest to sell not killing anyone, when I had at worst, a 66% chance of killing an innocent and then go into the night and kill another, getting myself down to at worst, a 7 vs 3 scenario and at best a 6 vs 4 scenario.

I think everyone who voted for me, because you're not all commies, should take a look at that theory and state that they agree with it, because that is exactly what you are voting for.

Maybe jumped on wagon and caught you were. forced to defend bad positon now

Not saying it's true. but possible it is

[ZachEY]

You are making your case on a string of events that all together are unlikely. Starting with the fact that 8 on 4 doesn't work unless the town has some additional powers..

And if it is as dire as you think, 8 on 4, forfeiting opportunities to kill scum is still a bad idea. Just look a the most likely of scenarios

No lynch and townie gets NK, cop gets nothing, it is 7-4 tomorrow and we have no information.

what do you do then? No lynch again and hope the cop comes through? Or do you risk a mislynch and go into day 3 at lynch or lose 6-5

Ok... 7-4 tomorrow.

Lets say, bare minimum, we have cop and a doc.

Now, we have 3 innocents, cop, doc, cops confirmed... this narrows our pool down to 7 people to look at. Of that seven, >50% are scum. Now, things are starting to look up.

If we have more power roles, then those numbers begin to look even better.

[ZachEY]

Maybe jumped on wagon and caught you were. forced to defend bad positon now

Not saying it's true. but possible it is

But that doesn't explain why as scum, I would jump on that wagon?

How would the no lynch wagon help... why not jump on a wagon that was you know, going to kill a non-teammate of mine.

That's where your logic train falls off the cliff.

[ZachEY]

Ok... 7-4 tomorrow.

Lets say, bare minimum, we have cop and a doc.

Now, we have 3 innocents, cop, doc, cops confirmed... this narrows our pool down to 7 people to look at. Of that seven, >50% are scum. Now, things are starting to look up.

If we have more power roles, then those numbers begin to look even better.

I'm sorry, 8... Which puts us at slightly below 50% if we have no other power roles to claim, which I think we both believe we do.

[CTM]

I have no doubt we do... A no lynch also prevents a reveal. As I said, I still need to go back and re-read the whole thread, but a No Lynch is better than an innocent lynch as we simply wont have the days to figure out any voting patterns.

Well. if you want to go the no lynch route the right move is to have the cop come forward. then it's a race between how quickly scum find doctor versus how many scum the cop can pick off..

No risk of cop dying at night, allows him to clear innocents on other side and tighten noose.

[CTM]

But that doesn't explain why as scum, I would jump on that wagon?

How would the no lynch wagon help... why not jump on a wagon that was you know, going to kill a non-teammate of mine.

That's where your logic train falls off the cliff.

Well.. cause as scum a day 1 nolynch is preferrable situation rather then risk someone being exposed. No voting history, nothing for town to go off of on day 2.

Maybe smashmouth or pac is scummate, and don't want to lose..

lot of reasons there are

[CTM]

I'm sorry, 8... Which puts us at slightly below 50% if we have no other power roles to claim, which I think we both believe we do.

So at 7-4 you want power roles to reveal?

[ZachEY]

Well. if you want to go the no lynch route the right move is to have the cop come forward. then it's a race between how quickly scum find doctor versus how many scum the cop can pick off..

No risk of cop dying at night, allows him to clear innocents on other side and tighten noose.

I've spoken of this strategy in the past, as the reason why I hate the 'No Lynch'. I actually think it would work.

[slats]

So, the theory goes, in a 12 player game, without any pressure on any particular player that I was trying to deflect from, as scum, I decided that it was in my best interest to sell not killing anyone, when I had at worst, a 66% chance of killing an innocent and then go into the night and kill another, getting myself down to at worst, a 7 vs 3 scenario and at best a 6 vs 4 scenario.

I think everyone who voted for me, because you're not all commies, should take a look at that theory and state that they agree with it, because that is exactly what you are voting for.

I agree with Irish.

No, what I'm questioning is why you're trying to sell it now without any immediate threat of a random lynch and don't give me this BS that a quick no lynch wouldn't help the scum. Are you serious?

We'd have absolutely nothing to work with down the line if this is your plan. No voting patterns, no meaningful discussion, no pressure, nothing. Wouldn't we be right back in the same position come day 2? Makes no sense at all.

If I'm scum, I want to direct the lynch day one. Short of that, a no lynch would be much better than a random lynch - or, of course, getting one of my own lynched.

I don't think there's four commies in this game. Doggin tells us this game is next to impossible to win, but I doubt the reason it's that hard would be as simple as having 33% of the field being a scum team. Getting to the night phase earlier might give us some clue earlier, but we'll get there eventually.

It's not like this is a tiny game. It's two days shorter than a standard 16 person game. I don't really see the urgency to avoid a lynch at this stage. Come back the next day down one or two people with a tighter time restraint and less to go on? I'm not getting that. Everyone trying to push this as the "common sense" idea has me suspicious.

[ZachEY]

So at 7-4 you want power roles to reveal?

No. Only when at L-1 to protect themselves. If they can be hidden into the night, all the better.

Of course we don't want the cop to investigate them, however, this would also make it more difficult for fake role claims.

[ZachEY]

I agree with Irish.

If I'm scum, I want to direct the lynch day one. Short of that, a no lynch would be much better than a random lynch - or, of course, getting one of my own lynched.

I don't think there's four commies in this game. Doggin tells us this game is next to impossible to win, but I doubt the reason it's that hard would be as simple as having 33% of the field being a scum team. Getting to the night phase earlier might give us some clue earlier, but we'll get there eventually.

It's not like this is a tiny game. It's two days shorter than a standard 16 person game. I don't really see the urgency to avoid a lynch at this stage. Come back the next day down one or two people with a tighter time restraint and less to go on? I'm not getting that. Everyone trying to push this as the "common sense" idea has me suspicious.

Much like Irish, this ignores why I would 'direct' a lynch that doesn't help me eliminate town.

[CTM]

No. Only when at L-1 to protect themselves. If they can be hidden into the night, all the better.

Of course we don't want the cop to investigate them, however, this would also make it more difficult for fake role claims.

so now we are cop directing as well?

with your plan, every scumball on squad would fake claim at L-1

[ZachEY]

Well.. cause as scum a day 1 nolynch is preferrable situation rather then risk someone being exposed. No voting history, nothing for town to go off of on day 2.

Maybe smashmouth or pac is scummate, and don't want to lose..

lot of reasons there are

Neither are close on a lynch, and wouldn't it behoove me to try to make a case on another player first... I think we all know I could get klecko lynched if I wanted too.

[ZachEY]

so now we are cop directing as well?

with your plan, every scumball on squad would fake claim at L-1

How did I direct the cop? He investigates anyone he wants.

And I said it makes it HARDER to fake a claim because you can still be investigated. Also, it's up to all of us to judge the 'Peter Petrelli'

[slats]

Much like Irish, this ignores why I would 'direct' a lynch that doesn't help me eliminate town.

I expect surprises in this game. Like you, I'm curious as to what that ".6" is going to mean. I'm also wondering if there's any unusual benefit to the scum team if we vote no lynch. Maybe Doggin gives them an extra kill if no one dies during the day? I don't know. I just get the feeling that Doggin had fun with this setup.

I could see coming around to a no lynch vote if we're at a standstill come Sunday night, I don't get it at all as a first option this early. Hence my suspicions.

[Doggin94it]

Vote Count

EY (4) - CTM, Pac, Slats, Irish

No lynch (3) - JVoR, EY, Smashmouth

Smashmouth (1) - Klecko

JVoR (3) - Vicious, JiF, Crusher

Not voting: Verbal

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

Deadline: Monday morning at 9 am. All further days will be 72 hours.