Mafia - Red Scare Game Thread

[Vicious89x]

But it's not the smart play. In all liklihood tomorrow we are in same positon, but with 1 dead townie, and cop with smaller chance of finding scum overnight cause there's more townies

Not that I love agreeing with you... but I do. This is my EXACT thoughts.

A night kill tells you NOTHING. Hell all it tells us is "oh well that guy was innocent". You'd have to pray and hope that A) our cop gets a guilty in the night phase and we don't lose a power role.

That's my stance. I will NOT BE VOTING NO LYNCH. Period.

[ZachEY]

But it's not the smart play. In all liklihood tomorrow we are in same positon, but with 1 dead townie, and cop with smaller chance of finding scum overnight cause there's more townies

If you want to play that game, then the cop has a greater percentage of being hit tonight by NK with one less player, and a greater chance of being outted and targetted thusly opening up the door for the doc to have to protect the cop leaving himself open for a hit.

We can circle around that logic all day.

[ZachEY]

I didnt take into account the .6 because there cant be a .6 . I assumed 3 not 4. if it were 4 I would have said 66 %

Be careful to assume there can't be a .6

I don't know what to make of it yet, but perhaps a symp or some one who can be converted.

Remember, this is Doggin's game, a random lynch is almost as good as anything because they usually make little sense.

[ZachEY]

How are we going to believe anyone scum if we are just all voting nolynch everyday.

And benevolent fat hero ended up choking on my wang as he was next to go

I've made the argument before in my 'no lynch is dumb' argument that this wouldn't be a bad strategy to go with for at least a few days.

[slats]

So far I have heard 3 people say they dont like the idea of no lynch. If your a townie and get a freebie, why not take it ? Can any of you explain your thoughts ? Do you feel its not in the spirit of the game ? In a small game every townie is precious (especially crusher). We stand to learn alot from the night kill.

What do we learn from the NK other than the fact that one person died, and they were innocent? Maybe more than one person dies (Doggin did say this would be a quick game), and we learn that maybe we had a better chance of hitting bad guys than we originally thought. Without any voting for actual players, what evidence do you get. Yes, we're more likely to lynch a townie than scum day one, but at least we get some info out of it moving forward.

Doggin's cryptic comments definitely have me a little more paranoid. Trying hard to think outside the box. I get that maybe the early no lynchers might think that's excactly what they're doing, but I also have to wonder if there's a potential benefit to the commies (or anyone in this game that might be anti-town) if a no lynch goes thru.

The one negative about grilling people on day 1 is what I will call the "Asss Pac" scenario. Where one player badgers people to the point where the power roles are outed. No matter how people like to spin it, it's bad for the town. Im not saying no lynch is the way to go, Im just saying lets not get carried away with how valuable a day 1 lynch is. No lynch is better than a random lynch.

This is a very valid point. Can't have people role revealing with just a few votes on them. But with a deadline four days away, it's way too early to push the no lynch option, IMHO. We get to an impass, I'll address it again then.

I've still got a massive FOS on Smashmouth, but for now I'll

unvote and

vote: EY

Something about EY being interested in this no lynch option this early really doesn't sit well with me at all. Doesn't seem like the play he'd make with so much time left on day one.

[The Crusher]

How are we going to believe anyone scum if we are just all voting nolynch everyday.

And benevolent fat hero ended up choking on my wang as he was next to go

Choke on your wang? Dude I could swallow a Ham hole and spit the bone out like a tic tac. The only problem your little Vienna sausage would cause me is hunger.

[Smashmouth]

Chan what makes you think a "no Lynch" would go on for days ?

[CTM]

If you want to play that game, then the cop has a greater percentage of being hit tonight by NK with one less player, and a greater chance of being outted and targetted thusly opening up the door for the doc to have to protect the cop leaving himself open for a hit.

We can circle around that logic all day.

Right... all while ignoring that we are forfeiting 1 of our chances to lynch mafia, while there's 0 chance they get lynched at night. (unless there is a SK ofcourse)

[Doggin94it]

Vote Count

EY (3) - CTM, Pac, Slats

No lynch (4) - JVoR, EY, Smashmouth, Crusher

Smashmouth (2) - Klecko, JiF

JVoR (1) - Vicious

Not voting: Irish

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

Deadline: Monday morning at 9 am. All further days will be 72 hours.

[Doggin94it]

Crush - Verbal isn't an alt. Its the name he uses at the other site I dragged him here from

[CTM]

Not that I love agreeing with you... but I do. This is my EXACT thoughts.

Wtf? not u 2

[CTM]

Choke on your wang? Dude I could swallow a Ham hole and spit the bone out like a tic tac. The only problem your little Vienna sausage would cause me is hunger.

it would cause you hunger for more c0ck?

You might want to rethink that last part..

[Smashmouth]

Right... all while ignoring that we are forfeiting 1 of our chances to lynch mafia, while there's 0 chance they get lynched at night. (unless there is a SK ofcourse)

Your worried about forfeiting a chance to lynch a commie on day one ? Come on Chan please. you know damn well the odds are aganist that happening.

[JustInFudge]

But it's not the smart play. In all liklihood tomorrow we are in same positon, but with 1 dead townie, and cop with smaller chance of finding scum overnight cause there's more townies

Right... all while ignoring that we are forfeiting 1 of our chances to lynch mafia, while there's 0 chance they get lynched at night. (unless there is a SK ofcourse)

These are my feeling as well.

To say that no lynch benefits the town is blasphamy and you all know this. All we are doing is the giving the mafia a free shot at the cop, doc, or a townie all while not even attempting to lynch one of them. And then we are back where we started with the potential of lynching a townie because we have nothing more to go on tomorrow than we did today. The move makes no sense this early in the game.

FOS EY, JVOR and anyone else that thinks this is a smart play.

I just cant change my vote from Smash yet, he is clearly up to something.

[The Crusher]

Crush - Verbal isn't an alt. Its the name he uses at the other site I dragged him here from

I thought maybe it was an alt for you because you always get voted off so fast and or nighkilled. Because your teh Mafia master. So you sat back with your monacle and white persian cat and decided to put together this doomsday scenario game where you show up as an alt and pwn everyone. I really have to stop eating mexican food for breakfast.

[Smashmouth]

These are my feeling as well.

To say that no lynch benefits the town is blasphamy and you all know this. All we are doing is the giving the mafia a free shot at the cop, doc, or a townie all while not even attempting to lynch one of them. And then we are back where we started with the potential of lynching a townie because we have nothing more to go on tomorrow than we did today. The move makes no sense this early in the game.

FOS EY, JVOR and anyone else that thinks this is a smart play.

I just cant change my vote from Smash yet, he is clearly up to something.

So in a short game you guys are ok with the very strong possibility of 2 dead townies after the night kill ? And you defending that saying the No Lynch is a bad play ? How much scummier can it get than that ? I do not understand the logic since its all really guess work at this point no matter how you slice it./

[The Crusher]

it would cause you hunger for more c0ck?

You might want to rethink that last part..

I would be just like all the other mens, woman and chowds that went before me. Must be a support group out their somewhere.

[The Crusher]

These are my feeling as well.

To say that no lynch benefits the town is blasphamy and you all know this. All we are doing is the giving the mafia a free shot at the cop, doc, or a townie all while not even attempting to lynch one of them. And then we are back where we started with the potential of lynching a townie because we have nothing more to go on tomorrow than we did today. The move makes no sense this early in the game.

FOS EY, JVOR and anyone else that thinks this is a smart play.

I just cant change my vote from Smash yet, he is clearly up to something.

Oh no's. Jif is agreeing with Chan. Not good not good.

[JustInFudge]

So in a short game you guys are ok with the very strong possibility of 2 dead townies after the night kill ? And you defending that saying the No Lynch is a bad play ? How much scummier can it get than that ? I do not understand the logic since its all really guess work at this point no matter how you slice it./

This is what you are not following here Smash, if we dont lynch today, that means the mafia kills the doc, the cop or a townie tonight (possibly two). Then tomorrow, with the town knowing nothing more then we do today, we are in the exact same position and most likely going to be lynching a townie, just like today.

If you really look at this from the right perspective, no lynch today actually puts the mafia in the perfect position to get 3 possibly 4 townies out of the deal because the likely hood of us lynching a mafia member tomorrow doesnt increase enough to take the risk of not trying to get one today.

Thats the logic, no spin, just straight to the point. Its guess work tomorrow too if we dont lynch today. Lynching today gives us something work with...plain and simple.

[Vicious89x]

This is what you are not following here Smash, if we dont lynch today, that means the mafia kills the doc, the cop or a townie tonight (possibly two). Then tomorrow, with the town knowing nothing more then we do today, we are in the exact same position and most likely going to be lynching a townie, just like today.

If you really look at this from the right perspective, no lynch today actually puts the mafia in the perfect position to get 3 possibly 4 townies out of the deal because the likely hood of us lynching a mafia member tomorrow doesnt increase enough to take the risk of not trying to get one today.

Thats the logic, no spin, just straight to the point. Its guess work tomorrow too if we dont lynch today. Lynching today gives us something work with...plain and simple.

Well said.

Here's my point to you. Isn't it suspicious for the guy who started this to just drop that little thing and just disappear?

[ZachEY]

Right... all while ignoring that we are forfeiting 1 of our chances to lynch mafia, while there's 0 chance they get lynched at night. (unless there is a SK ofcourse)

Yes, you're giving up something around a 25-33% chance of hitting scum, to avoid the 66-75 percent chance of killing an innocent in a small game.

[JustInFudge]

Well said.

Here's my point to you. Isn't it suspicious for the guy who started this to just drop that little thing and just disappear?

Yes, yes it is. And its a typical JVOR scum tell as well. When he plays town, he is a lot more invovled, especially when he proposes an idea that has caught on to multiple players.

That said, I am holding off voting him because of Smash. His play has been nutty. And he is pushing the idea harder then anyone.

[Klecko73isGod]

I stand by my vote: Smashmouth is a commie.

[The Crusher]

I stand by my vote: Smashmouth is a commie.

Well said.

[Vicious89x]

Yes, yes it is. And its a typical JVOR scum tell as well. When he plays town, he is a lot more invovled, especially when he proposes an idea that has caught on to multiple players.

That said, I am holding off voting him because of Smash. His play has been nutty. And he is pushing the idea harder then anyone.

Which is why I'm cooling on smash. JVOR seems to have dropped the set-up while Smash has run with it. To me that's a townie thinking he's right... plus like you said to me this is a blatant tell and if we nail him, then Smash is the obvious guy to investigate for our cop.

That's perfect mafia play JiF... you drop that little nugget, disappear, let the town do the dirty work without looking blatantly obvious. JMO. I'll put a vote on Smash if we need to build steam in a certain direction.

[JustInFudge]

Which is why I'm cooling on smash. JVOR seems to have dropped the set-up while Smash has run with it. To me that's a townie thinking he's right... plus like you said to me this is a blatant tell and if we nail him, then Smash is the obvious guy to investigate for our cop.

That's perfect mafia play JiF... you drop that little nugget, disappear, let the town do the dirty work without looking blatantly obvious. JMO. I'll put a vote on Smash if we need to build steam in a certain direction.

You know what, I agree, great point.

Smash is giving us enough info to make cases on him later.

Unvote

Vote JVOR

[CTM]

Yes, you're giving up something around a 25-33% chance of hitting scum, to avoid the 66-75 percent chance of killing an innocent in a small game.

but meanwhile, cop has same odds tonight, while mafia has a 92% chance of succesful nk..

Then tomorrow.. sitting in same spot as now, but with 1 less townie

And killing innocents is what helps increase odds of killing scum later, you know that..

[CTM]

You know what, I agree, great point.

Smash is giving us enough info to make cases on him later.

Unvote

Vote JVOR

This is appealing to me if only because JVOR did the same **** to me last game. Dropped some crazy theory, let everyone run with it and dissappear until coming back to apolgize..

I will vote JVOR if nobody is interested in EY

[Doggin94it]

Vote Count

EY (3) - CTM, Pac, Slats

No lynch (4) - JVoR, EY, Smashmouth, Crusher

Smashmouth (1) - Klecko

JVoR (2) - Vicious, JiF

Not voting: Irish

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

Deadline: Monday morning at 9 am. All further days will be 72 hours.

[ZachEY]

but meanwhile, cop has same odds tonight, while mafia has a 92% chance of succesful nk..

Then tomorrow.. sitting in same spot as now, but with 1 less townie

And killing innocents is what helps increase odds of killing scum later, you know that..

Of course, but as I already stated, in a game with 12 players, we don't have a lot of laters...

If there are 4 commies out there, then after tonight, we're looking at a good chance of a 4 vs 6 scenario.

Obviously, if there are only 3, we're looking at a 7 vs 3 scenario which leaves us in a better position, but not a great one. Further, the .6 has to mean something, so I doubt the later is even as good as the 7 vs 3 situation.

[Verbal]

Your worried about forfeiting a chance to lynch a commie on day one ? Come on Chan please. you know damn well the odds are aganist that happening.

According to your plan, we have a 0% chance of getting a mafia on a Day 1 lynch. If we forget about the No Lynch and actually lynch somebody, at least that percentage chance goes up from the zero you propose. I know you already know this, but using the "small chance to lynch a commie" doesn't work when your plan drops that percentage to nil.

[The Crusher]

Interesting thing this JVoR thing, because just like CTM he's duped me real good as well. The no lynch thing is still better than random, but Im happy to throw a little more heat on JVOR and see what he has to say.

I think Vic's assesment on Smash is pretty good. So until he comes back and defends himself.

unvote

vote:JVOR

[JustInFudge]

This is appealing to me if only because JVOR did the same **** to me last game. Dropped some crazy theory, let everyone run with it and dissappear until coming back to apolgize..

I will vote JVOR if nobody is interested in EY

Yep. Thats been his play when he's not town.

EY is interesting because he is pushing this as well, but I'm more concerned with the mastermind behind it all who hasnt shown face after 3 pages of discussion revolved around his theory.

[Doggin94it]

Vote Count

EY (3) - CTM, Pac, Slats

No lynch (3) - JVoR, EY, Smashmouth

Smashmouth (1) - Klecko

JVoR (3) - Vicious, JiF, Crusher

Not voting: Irish

With 12 players alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

Deadline: Monday morning at 9 am. All further days will be 72 hours.

[Vicious89x]

Yep. Thats been his play when he's not town.

EY is interesting because he is pushing this as well, but I'm more concerned with the mastermind behind it all who hasnt shown face after 3 pages of discussion revolved around his theory.

EY is playing like Mafia sabermetrics. His play is different this time around, not as aggressive as usual.