LOST Mafia Game Thread

[HessStation]

NFN, but it always goes like that. The next game always incorporates cool things from the last game. That doesn't surpise me at all, we just need to figure out how Vic has evolved it.

Yeah I thought through that but if Brett gets noob status I do too. Seriously, I don't know this for sure, is it always when the Godfather is lynched the town wins? And blow me to all that has a problem with my question in advance. I'm just saying I don't think we have to kill all the mafia/recruits. Just MIB.

[DPR]

Thinking DPR's suggestion through, there seems to be no significant statistical advantage for the town to vote no-lynch to avoid lynching a townie and then seeing what happens the following morning.

Right now, special-to-standard setup the town has an 83-77% chance of lynching a townie this first day.

If there is no lynch and a successful NK, the percentage is down to 82-76%. If there is a SK/vig NK of a townie, then the percentage is down to 81-75%. Of course, if there is a SK/vig who NK scum the odds increase in the town favor. Whether there is a successful investigation is also be beneficial, but difficult to quantify considering that the cop would have to out him/herself to go that route day 2.

So while the odds improve slightly, and it's infrequent where scum get nailed day 1, is that enough to lose the chance of potentially crippling the scum by reducing their numbers between 25-33%

So, last game, you couldn't shut up about how crazy it was to give up an innocent.

Now you figure 82% odds that we will lynch a townie are okay?

Er, don't look now, but your pinstripes are showing.

[DPR]

DPR why would you suggest a no lynch on the first vote of the game when all we have is a bunch of speculation ? I could understand if something came up that steered us in that direction Like Doggins Red Scare game but currently we have nothing to work on.

Exactly, and with nothing to work on, we'll most likely lynch an innocent (SMC gives you an 82% chance of that (did you like how he left out the percentage chances that you'd risk hitting the Cop or the Doc, or any other power role? )

Not only that but it also gives the mafia the option to really **** with our heads if they so choose. I dont think we should be putting them in the drivers seat which a no lynch will most definely have the chance of doing.

Look, that's their job, and it can't be avoided. All we can do is try to spot it when it happens.

Yeah I thought through that but if Brett gets noob status I do too. Seriously, I don't know this for sure, is it always when the Godfather is lynched the town wins? And blow me to all that has a problem with my question in advance. I'm just saying I don't think we have to kill all the mafia/recruits. Just MIB.

This is not true at all. Doggin's game was very unique with that mafia win condition. What you are describing isn't part of the Godfather role as it is normally played.

[SMC]

So, last game, you couldn't shut up about how crazy it was to give up an innocent.

Now you figure 82% odds that we will lynch a townie are okay?

Er, don't look now, but your pinstripes are showing.

Are you this dumb, or are you playing one on TV?

Last game the thought of intentionally lynching a KNOWN innocent was, and still is moronic.

Now, we're talking about the statiscs of POTENTIALLY lynching an innocent.

Get the distinction? Last game, you wanted to avoid scum hunting and instead lynch outed innocents. Heck, you wanted to lynch outed town power roles.

You trying to twist what you foolishly wanted to do last game into what I've said above (which is 100% accurate) is laughable.

[CTM]

That's your opinion, which is fine, but you guys are still stuck on turning your headlights off while you play, which is considered scummy on a lot of boards. So voice an opinion, but be careful about how you color things.

Explain?

Also:

Is it better for town or scum, if game starts during night phase? That's essentially what you are advocating.

[Naeann]

rrrrrrrrrepped

Aww you are my new favorite!

[HessStation]

Are you this dumb, or are you playing one on TV?

Last game the thought of intentionally lynching a KNOWN innocent was, and still is moronic.

Now, we're talking about the statiscs of POTENTIALLY lynching an innocent.

Get the distinction? Last game, you wanted to avoid scum hunting and instead lynch outed innocents. Heck, you wanted to lynch outed town power roles.

You trying to twist what you foolishly wanted to do last game into what I've said above (which is 100% accurate) is laughable.

LOL SMC just called DPR a dumb.

What up CTM. How you doin?

[Sharrow]

Yeah I thought through that but if Brett gets noob status I do too. Seriously, I don't know this for sure, is it always when the Godfather is lynched the town wins? And blow me to all that has a problem with my question in advance. I'm just saying I don't think we have to kill all the mafia/recruits. Just MIB.

Hate to spoil this more cause I don't even know who the guy is in the show yet, but based on what people have said, would he become one of the other scum members if he was killed? Is he like a body-snatcher, or is he like a shape-shifter?

[SMC]

Exactly, and with nothing to work on, we'll most likely lynch an innocent (SMC gives you an 82% chance of that (did you like how he left out the percentage chances that you'd risk hitting the Cop or the Doc, or any other power role? )

Your side point on me fails on 2 fronts:

1) How could we statistically state the potential of NKing a power role if we don't know the number of power roles?

2) The percentage of lynching a power role is quite small.

If there is just a cop and doc, the percentage is 11%. If there is a cop and doc, plus 2 other power roles, then it's 22% (about the same percentage of hitting scum). If there are 6 power roles, then the percentage is 33%.

Regardless, the percentage of hitting townie in general is much higher.

[DPR]

Are you this dumb, or are you playing one on TV?

Last game the thought of intentionally lynching a KNOWN innocent was, and still is moronic.

Now, we're talking about the statiscs of POTENTIALLY lynching an innocent.

Get the distinction? Last game, you wanted to avoid scum hunting and instead lynch outed innocents. Heck, you wanted to lynch outed town power roles.

You trying to twist what you foolishly wanted to do last game into what I've said above (which is 100% accurate) is laughable.

Get upset much?

It's exactly the way that I said it above, and you squeeling won't change that.

You've already WIFOM'D in this game, and now you are going to try to draw a distinction between a good dead townie and a bad dead townie?

You need to pop something in that mouth.

c=3

[DPR]

Your side point on me fails on 2 fronts:

1) How could we statistically state the potential of NKing a power role if we don't know the number of power roles?

2) The percentage of lynching a power role is quite small.

If there is just a cop and doc, the percentage is 11%. If there is a cop and doc, plus 2 other power roles, then it's 22% (about the same percentage of hitting scum). If there are 6 power roles, then the percentage is 33%.

Regardless, the percentage of hitting townie in general is much higher.

I'm confused - did you say you wanted to lynch a power role more than a plain townie, or was it the other way around?

Look, you put your piece out there, and I put mine out there. Quit crying and let the other players see which idea they agree with.

[CTM]

LOL SMC just called DPR a dumb.

What up CTM. How you doin?

ePeen-jousting with the smartest guy in the room is SMC's gig..

I prefer to pick on the real dummies

[HessStation]

Hate to spoil this more cause I don't even know who the guy is in the show yet, but based on what people have said, would he become one of the other scum members if he was killed? Is he like a body-snatcher, or is he like a shape-shifter?

Yeah. And Maybe this whole conversion thing is that it's the towns job to "convert" scum back to town instead of "lynching" them.

[SMC]

Get upset much?

It's exactly the way that I said it above, and you squeeling won't change that.

You've already WIFOM'D in this game, and now you are going to try to draw a distinction between a good dead townie and a bad dead townie?

You need to pop something in that mouth.

c=3

Upset? Far from it. You couldn't get a rise out of me with a cattle prod.

Your subsequent point (not the initial on the no lynch) is just laughable considering your lingering defense of a ridiculous strategy last game.

Lynching a KNOWN townie power role is, and for ever will be a bad decision. No sabermatrics would ever make that work. You might as well let that go.

Further, I pointed out the negligible statistical advantage of doing a no lynch now. You've twisted that into me saying that it's better to lynch a townie? Why?

A dead townie is a dead townie. The distinction here is potentially lynching a townie vs. intentionally lynching a townie. That distinction can't be any clearer.

[CTM]

Yeah. And Maybe this whole conversion thing is that it's the towns job to "convert" scum back to town instead of "lynching" them.

before vic volunteered to run this setup.. i wasn considering an angle like this for lost.. may need to do it in another game

[SMC]

I'm confused - did you say you wanted to lynch a power role more than a plain townie, or was it the other way around?

Look, you put your piece out there, and I put mine out there. Quit crying and let the other players see which idea they agree with.

I can see how you're confused.

But, actually, you were the one you wanted to lynch a power role last game, remember?

Lost in all this with your monologuing is the fact that the odds actually favor your no lynch strategy. But it's only negligable.

[SMC]

ePeen-jousting with the smartest guy in the room is SMC's gig..

I prefer to pick on the real dummies

You miss Kleck, don't you?

[CTM]

You miss Kleck, don't you?

yes. the only true dummy left is pac

[JustInFudge]

I'm Batman.

[DPR]

Upset? Far from it. You couldn't get a rise out of me with a cattle prod.

That's what she said.

Your subsequent point (not the initial on the no lynch) is just laughable considering your lingering defense of a ridiculous strategy last game.

Actually, it's real strategy. You just don't know that, and you are blind ot options outside of what you come up with. It's your weakness - and I'm not kidding.

Lynching a KNOWN townie power role is, and for ever will be a bad decision. No sabermatrics would ever make that work. You might as well let that go.

You keep twisting this - no one knew that it was a power role. And even if it was, one of our deaths should have alerted everyone to the presence of those power roles, and let the breadcrumbing begin. Your lack of imagination on how to use and manipulate the roles is just dissapointing. You're a sharp guy. Go ahead and use that noodle.

Further, I pointed out the negligible statistical advantage of doing a no lynch now. You've twisted that into me saying that it's better to lynch a townie? Why?

I'm being a smart ass.

But, you saying that a 82% chance of killing a townie, with a 11% percent chance of killing a Doc or a Cop (let's just take for granted that there are at least two power roles), while we only have a 25-33% chance of hitting scum is not a strong argument. It's just not.

You can state it as a fact. You could say that you personally think that a lynch would benefit the town. But you can't try to turn it into a high powered argument or claim that a no lynch is a bad idea.

It's just an idea, and it will most likely preserve a townie. We'll get information from the night kill. No one can't see that logic.

A dead townie is a dead townie. The distinction here is potentially lynching a townie vs. intentionally lynching a townie. That distinction can't be any clearer.

Here's where you lose me...STFW? You've provided us with statistics that say that the odds of hitting a mafia are low, while the odds of hitting a townie are high. The odds of hitting a power role are not that much different than hitting a mafia, so i say, why risk it?

We got nothin so far.

We could go on and on with clever repartee', or we can just get on with things.

I vote to get on with it, and it doesn't hurt the town.

[slats]

Yeah I thought through that but if Brett gets noob status I do too. Seriously, I don't know this for sure, is it always when the Godfather is lynched the town wins? And blow me to all that has a problem with my question in advance. I'm just saying I don't think we have to kill all the mafia/recruits. Just MIB.

The Chilean Thundercat disagrees:

He will not be reasoned with, and he will kill all of you on his way out. It is up to you to eliminate the Man in Black and any of his recruits. Beware, he has lived for thousands of years and will use any resources to survive and kill you all in order to get off this island.

[slats]

Here's where you lose me...STFW? You've provided us with statistics that say that the odds of hitting a mafia are low, while the odds of hitting a townie are high. The odds of hitting a power role are not that much different than hitting a mafia, so i say, why risk it?

We got nothin so far.

We could go on and on with clever repartee', or we can just get on with things.

I vote to get on with it, and it doesn't hurt the town.

Whatever goes down at night is better seen against what happened the day before, IMHO. We can look at voting patterns and such to try to get a better feel for scum the next day, those votes can be compared to any death scene we may get tomorrow. Our power roles (i.e.: Finder) have a better shot of doing something meaningful at night if they have a day's worth of info to work with.

I'm not sure that what you're proposing doesn't hurt the town. The obvious advantage is one less townie. Information-wise, I see us as just backed up a day.

[SMC]

You keep twisting this - no one knew that it was a power role. And even if it was, one of our deaths should have alerted everyone to the presence of those power roles, and let the breadcrumbing begin. Your lack of imagination on how to use and manipulate the roles is just dissapointing. You're a sharp guy. Go ahead and use that noodle.

It has nothing to do with the lack of imagination on how to use the roles. Your plan was foolish. The town benefited from numbers, not lynching them at the expense of ignoring scum.

Plus, your "breadcrumbing" did nothing as viewed by Lily's suicide play. It got Lefty lynched. But lo and behold, Lily LIKE YOU were greatly important to the Avatar.

And, a power role USING a power role is way more important than the town finding out a power role exists after you lynch them. "Yeah, wow, we have a power role but he'd dead, Jim."

Finally, I'm not twisting anything. It was a horribly bad play on your part. Everyone but you knows it and that's your folly.

But, you saying that a 82% chance of killing a townie, with a 11% percent chance of killing a Doc or a Cop (let's just take for granted that there are at least two power roles), while we only have a 25-33% chance of hitting scum is not a strong argument. It's just not.

You can state it as a fact. You could say that you personally think that a lynch would benefit the town. But you can't try to turn it into a high powered argument or claim that a no lynch is a bad idea.

It's just an idea, and it will most likely preserve a townie. We'll get information from the night kill. No one can't see that logic.

The statistics are facts. They are there. They do not say that your idea is a bad one, it just doesn't support it. Thus, there is no "high powered argument or claim that a no lynch is a bad idea." It simply doesn't support your idea, but it doesn't bury it either.

Here's where you lose me...STFW? You've provided us with statistics that say that the odds of hitting a mafia are low, while the odds of hitting a townie are high. The odds of hitting a power role are not that much different than hitting a mafia, so i say, why risk it?

We got nothin so far.

We could go on and on with clever repartee', or we can just get on with things.

I vote to get on with it, and it doesn't hurt the town.

You want to get on with it, we can. I'm not condemning no lynch. I just don't see the benefit of it for the town going into it D2. And, as began all this, the statistics are neutral (with only a slight advantage for no lynch).

[Naeann]

Yeah I thought through that but if Brett gets noob status I do too. Seriously, I don't know this for sure, is it always when the Godfather is lynched the town wins? And blow me to all that has a problem with my question in advance. I'm just saying I don't think we have to kill all the mafia/recruits. Just MIB.

I've not been in a game where killing the godfather automatically won the game for the innocents. Not saying it's not possible. I don't know how the mods here set things up.

[SMC]

Does anybody else get that this is obviously an opposite of Doggin's game. MIB is more or less the Avatar, scum version.

It's possible, but there would be some twists in there to not make it as easy.

As to your question about killing the Godfather meaning a town win, that is not the case. Remember in the SW game Vic was the Godfather and he was lynched and the game went on. It's only a special win condition that means the killing of an individual player equals victory.

[CTM]

Why are we discussing no lynch? That's like handing over a free kill, almost no different then starting in night phase instead of day, based on actual game content thus far..

We'd have nothing to analyze

[AVM]

I've not been in a game where killing the godfather automatically won the game for the innocents. Not saying it's not possible. I don't know how the mods here set things up.

For what it's worth, as long as I've played I've never seen a scenario in which the town kills just one guy and the game is over

[SMC]

Why are we discussing no lynch? That's like handing over a free kill, almost no different then starting in night phase instead of day, based on actual game content thus far..

We'd have nothing to analyze

Ask your boy, DPR. It's his proposal.

[DPR]

You want to get on with it, we can. I'm not condemning no lynch. I just don't see the benefit of it for the town going into it D2. And, as began all this, the statistics are neutral (with only a slight advantage for no lynch).

So basically, after I voted no lynch, you could have just said "meh, statistically it's not terrible, but it's not great. Does anyone have a better option?"

Instead, you attacked me, mostly over my play in the last game, when you're the dumbass that didn't protect himself, which is why you died and we lost.

I don't know...I'd say that's kind of shifty behavior, but I've seen you do it before when you were town, so it may just be overcompensation for a tiny pee-pee.

Either way, it is fun, I just don't know how much good it's doing the town.

[CTM]

also, all of this talk of stats is presuming everyone has 1 vote and no information. By the role of dice, we might have a 1 in 4 to 5 chance of lynching scum, but the actual equation is much more complex then that.

Scum work as a team, and are actually more difficult to lynch then standard statistics would lead you to believe as they can deflect and start competing trains, or withold votes.

[DPR]

Why are we discussing no lynch? That's like handing over a free kill, almost no different then starting in night phase instead of day, based on actual game content thus far..

We'd have nothing to analyze

It's essentialy a defensive play because we got nothin' to go on.

We get information and to start D2 with one more townie. If you like your odds of hitting scum better, go for it.

[DPR]

Whatever goes down at night is better seen against what happened the day before, IMHO. We can look at voting patterns and such to try to get a better feel for scum the next day, those votes can be compared to any death scene we may get tomorrow. Our power roles (i.e.: Finder) have a better shot of doing something meaningful at night if they have a day's worth of info to work with.

I'm not sure that what you're proposing doesn't hurt the town. The obvious advantage is one less townie. Information-wise, I see us as just backed up a day.

This is true. We do give up information with a no lynch.

[CTM]

It's essentialy a defensive play because we got nothin' to go on.

We get information and to start D2 with one more townie. If you like your odds of hitting scum better, go for it.

We've got nothign going cause the game just started.

regardless if we lynch town or scum today, we will get information.

Heck the game before last, your day 1 activities lead directly to your day 2 lynch. Had we no lynched at a similiar point in that game, we'd have not been able to lynch you so easily on day 2.

Offering no lynch so quickly isnt' a protown plan when it short circuits our best weapon, the ability to gather intel

[JustInFudge]

also, all of this talk of stats is presuming everyone has 1 vote and no information. By the role of dice, we might have a 1 in 4 to 5 chance of lynching scum, but the actual equation is much more complex then that.

Scum work as a team, and are actually more difficult to lynch then standard statistics would lead you to believe as they can deflect and start competing trains, or withold votes.

You dont say? This is mafia revelation right here...changes the whole game. To think we've been playing this game for so long and never took that into consideration. Smells fishy or scummy.

Unvote

Vote CTM

Only scum could think this advanced.

[SMC]

So basically, after I voted no lynch, you could have just said "meh, statistically it's not terrible, but it's not great. Does anyone have a better option?"

Instead, you attacked me, mostly over my play in the last game, when you're the dumbass that didn't protect himself, which is why you died and we lost.

DPR, this post is utter fail.

I attacked you? This is an attack??? I brought up play from last game???

Thinking DPR's suggestion through, there seems to be no significant statistical advantage for the town to vote no-lynch to avoid lynching a townie and then seeing what happens the following morning.

Right now, special-to-standard setup the town has an 83-77% chance of lynching a townie this first day.

If there is no lynch and a successful NK, the percentage is down to 82-76%. If there is a SK/vig NK of a townie, then the percentage is down to 81-75%. Of course, if there is a SK/vig who NK scum the odds increase in the town favor. Whether there is a successful investigation is also be beneficial, but difficult to quantify considering that the cop would have to out him/herself to go that route day 2.

So while the odds improve slightly, and it's infrequent where scum get nailed day 1, is that enough to lose the chance of potentially crippling the scum by reducing their numbers between 25-33%

Exagerate much??? In fact, it was you who brought up last game in response to my above post:

So, last game, you couldn't shut up about how crazy it was to give up an innocent.

Now you figure 82% odds that we will lynch a townie are okay?

Er, don't look now, but your pinstripes are showing.

So, I actually did say in essence "meh, statistically it's not terrible, but it's not great" but then you came barking back and accused me of being mafia.