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How good will the Jets' running game be?


WWWWombat

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Shonn Greene had 7.8% DVOA and 55% success rate last year while the Jets' O-line was ranked 3rd with 4.56 Adjusted Line Yards. I have seen some contradictory stats, but I tend to be more convinced by the ones I mentioned. Think I will draft Shonn Greene in my fantasy league this year. Should be able to get him cheap(er) cuz I live in New England.

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I'm not a huge fan of Greene personally.. but our oline is very good so he'll get his yards, if he stays healthy

Good to know. I've just gotten into advanced football stats and wanted to know if I was interpreting them correctly. They seem to show that Greene is solid and very good at picking up the needed yards if not necessarily much more than that. How much of that is the O-Line, I'm not sure. LT was only 29th in success rate.

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Our O-line is still good, but Greene isn't.

I disagree. He's come up absolutely clutch in the postseason in each of his first two years. If he can do that against top competition, why can't he do it over the long haul of a regular season? He's the feature back now. Hopefully Tom Moore's input in the offense will put Shonn in the best position to succeed.

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Its hard for me to get a good read on Greene. Not sure if he's got the LaMont Jordan syndrome of good change of pace backing up 2 veteran RB's. He looks good, but who knows if he can carry the load. Should be interesting to see how they distribute carries with LT. Wonder how many McKnight and Powell will get...but I think Powell could be a good player.

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Greene's issue is pretty simple, the guy needs to learn how to start the season strong. He's shown an ability to come on late in the season and into the playoffs, but he'll now be asked to do it as the feature guy from day one. He was supposed to be the starter last year, but was so clearly outplayed by LT early that he lost the job until late in the season when LT slowed down. If he can get his crap together and have a good camp, he should be fine.

That said, despite what the Jets are saying, there's no way in the world Greene hits 300 carries on the year. LT is moving into the third down role, but you're fooling yourself if you think the guy still isn't going to get himself some carries. Then you have McKnight, who the Jets have made it abundantly clear is one of their priorities in terms of getting him more involved in the offense this year. Then let's not forget, it's very possible the Jets use a similar formula as the past two years and ride the fresh guy come late in the season, which means as the season moves on we'll probably start seeing some of Powell stealing carries as well. There's too many guys in that backfield with too many different skill sets for any one player to be dominant at the RB position for the Jets.

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When and how did Greene become a bad player on this forum?

I think Greene became too good of a player too fast on this forum, now a little reality is kicking in. He hasn't proven that he can do it over the long haul or as the man yet. I'd guess that LT's DVOA's suffer in comparison to Greene's because he got most of the short yardage work. That could be a concern for fantasy should the Jets continue to use LT at the goal line. There's a lot of chatter about Greene taking over the load here, but at the same time there's a lot of talk about McKnight getting more work, too. I wouldn't expect Greene's overall numbers to increase all that much - even if they decide to put LT to pasture. And I doubt they'll be willing or able to put LT out to pasture.

Bottom line is I'm not sold on Greene, and I think the fact that the Jets drafted a similar RB in Powell suggests that maybe they're not sold, either.

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I'll be interested to see what happens with Greene this year. He spit the ball up against the Ravens and they immediately went to LT. I think they should just keep feeding the ball to Greene. I think Greene is a quality back, but he's no sure thing. I hope they make a concerted effort to keep giving him the ball this year. I'm not sure if he had a mental problem with the fumbles that made them go away from him or Schotty did. There is also the good chance he gets hurt. Greene has a tendency to get dinged. I like Hunter, but I think he is a step back in the running game from Woody. I think as Hunter got reps things got better, but I don't think he's a slam dumk to be as good a run blocker as Woody. OTOH, Woody was banged up last year and a 100% Hunter > a dinged Woody.

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I actually think the reason the Jets are stockpiling draft picks and stopgap types at HB is the same reason they are doing it with the 2/3 receiver. IOTW: Its not a position that Tanne and the FO ever plan to spend big money on, for the following reasons:

1 - We will run the ball. A lot. Over the course of a season... Meaning we're going to need 2-3 guys that are capable of producing throughout the course of the season.

2 - RB is a relatively easy position to learn. and the shelf life of a RB is also very short (most guys dont make it past 5 or 6 yrs in the league). Therefore, we can easily afford to keep plugging in draft picks without having to worry about spending $$ to retain guys.

3 - A good OL, a good QB, and a good D can make any RB look good. This carries off #2 in a way..But, its much more important that we spend the dough to keep those units intact. Look at the Broncos in the late 90's/ early 2000's... They must have had about 5 or 6 pro bowl caliber backs in that time... When one left to take big money elsewhere, theyd plug in a UDFA/low rd draft pick and turn him into a pro bowler... and the process went on for about 8-10 years. Thing is, none of those RBs that left the Broncos were nearly as successful with other teams. Point: A good portion of a RB's success is more due to the system than the talent of the RB itself.

So, when Shonn Greene's contract expires over the next year or two... Don't think the Jets for a second will think about giving him starter type money on a long term deal... They'll still have McKnight, Powell, and they could always draft someone else or find a cheap stopgap if need be.

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I actually think the reason the Jets are stockpiling draft picks and stopgap types at HB is the same reason they are doing it with the 2/3 receiver. IOTW: Its not a position that Tanne and the FO ever plan to spend big money on, for the following reasons:

1 - We will run the ball. A lot. Over the course of a season... Meaning we're going to need 2-3 guys that are capable of producing throughout the course of the season.

2 - RB is a relatively easy position to learn. and the shelf life of a RB is also very short (most guys dont make it past 5 or 6 yrs in the league). Therefore, we can easily afford to keep plugging in draft picks without having to worry about spending $$ to retain guys.

3 - A good OL, a good QB, and a good D can make any RB look good. This carries off #2 in a way..But, its much more important that we spend the dough to keep those units intact. Look at the Broncos in the late 90's/ early 2000's... They must have had about 5 or 6 pro bowl caliber backs in that time... When one left to take big money elsewhere, theyd plug in a UDFA/low rd draft pick and turn him into a pro bowler... and the process went on for about 8-10 years. Thing is, none of those RBs that left the Broncos were nearly as successful with other teams. Point: A good portion of a RB's success is more due to the system than the talent of the RB itself.

So, when Shonn Greene's contract expires over the next year or two... Don't think the Jets for a second will think about giving him starter type money on a long term deal... They'll still have McKnight, Powell, and they could always draft someone else or find a cheap stopgap if need be.

Bingo.

Not to mention, we supposedly have one of the best OL coaches in the game in Bill Callahan. For the same reason that we don't invest big money into special teamers because of Westhoff, its somewhat counterproductive to go after the big HR hitters at RB when our O-line can make just about anyone look good.

Though it'd sure as hell be nice to have a STAR in his prime at the RB position one of these days.

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Bingo.

Not to mention, we supposedly have one of the best OL coaches in the game in Bill Callahan. For the same reason that we don't invest big money into special teamers because of Westhoff, its somewhat counterproductive to go after the big HR hitters at RB when our O-line can make just about anyone look good.

Though it'd sure as hell be nice to have a STAR in his prime at the RB position one of these days.

It would be nice, but the only way its going to happen is if we get one in the draft...

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Shonn Greene had 7.8% DVOA and 55% success rate last year while the Jets' O-line was ranked 3rd with 4.56 Adjusted Line Yards. I have seen some contradictory stats, but I tend to be more convinced by the ones I mentioned. Think I will draft Shonn Greene in my fantasy league this year. Should be able to get him cheap(er) cuz I live in New England.

It'll depend on how good our pass game is. Shonn showed flashes, but he's also showed inconsistency. If Sanchez can remove some pressure from out of the box I think Greene will take advantage.

It'll be a good idea to draft Greene in your fantasy if you think Sanchez is going to have a career year.

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Bingo.

Not to mention, we supposedly have one of the best OL coaches in the game in Bill Callahan. For the same reason that we don't invest big money into special teamers because of Westhoff, its somewhat counterproductive to go after the big HR hitters at RB when our O-line can make just about anyone look good.

Though it'd sure as hell be nice to have a STAR in his prime at the RB position one of these days.

We've had 2 in the last 30 years, Martin and McNeil, and have 0 Super Bowls to show for it.

Actually besides for E. Smith, how many franchise backs have won Super Bowls in recent years? I know I'm probably missing someone, but for the most part you don't win with them.

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We've had 2 in the last 30 years, Martin and McNeil, and have 0 Super Bowls to show for it.

Actually besides for E. Smith, how many franchise backs have won Super Bowls in recent years? I know I'm probably missing someone, but for the most part you don't win with them.

Faulk

Bettis in his last season

Terrell Davis

Jamal Lewis

thats about it since E. Smith

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Faulk

Bettis in his last season

Terrell Davis

Jamal Lewis

thats about it since E. Smith

Bettis was no longer a prime back considering Willie Parker got most of the hype that season and I would argue Terrell was never really a franchise back and just a product of Shannahans system in Denver.

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We'll feature a top 5 rushing attack for the 3rd consecutive season under Rex Ryan.

In 2009 we ranked 1st in rushing attempts, 1st in rushing yards, 5th in average yards per carry, 3rd in rushing TD's and 1st in rushes for 1st downs.

Last year we ranked 2nd in rushing attempts, 4th in rushing yards, 8th in average yards per carry, 9th in rushing TD's and 4th in rushes for 1st downs.

As you can see, we seen a drop off in rushing last season (due to an increase in passing) but the potential production of a top 5 rushing attack is still here with the Jets. Just because Sanchez is heading into his 3rd season, doesn't mean the coaching staff will shy away from something (our ground and pound) that's led us to the AFC Championship game during consecutive seasons. Rex Ryan being a smash mouth type of football coach won't allow that to happen. Not when our offensive line is built to dominate games inside the trenches. Shonn Greene would become a smart fantasy pickup for someone looking for a top 10 back. In 09 Thomas Jones was our feature back, Greene was only a rookie. Last year LT took away a lot of the carries that Greene could have gotten. This season, Tomlinson will play a lesser role which makes for Shonn Greene emerging onto the scene as our feature back. Heading into his 3rd year, at the age of 25, as our feature back, behind this offensive line? I'm expecting a very strong season out of #23.

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Faulk

Bettis in his last season

Terrell Davis

Jamal Lewis

thats about it since E. Smith

Bettis was way past his prime. If we are going to say Terrell Davis then we have to say Orlando Gary, Mike Anderson, or whoever else they would plug into the system and would run for 1000+ yards. Davis IMO is the most overrated RB ever.

I'd agree with you about Lewis, though I doubt most people would consider him a franchise back.

And Faulk is a definete. I missed him, but even with him, it was more about the system than it was about him.

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LT should be a guy who runs Draws, Screens and catches the ball out of the backfield. He's also a great short yardage back despite his size. I'm not sure I have an opinion on McKnight yet.

I know you posted this six months ago, but it's on the top of the page and I keep reading it...

You can't be the guy that runs draws and screens. Draws and screens are only effective if the other team doesn't know they are coming. If you use a different guy for them, they are expected. They also aren't as effective when you can't throw the ball which is why we don't use them much, not because Schotty is a moron.

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