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Compensatory picks?


Integrity28

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Some dude who projects comp picks (with 100% accuracy) uses this formula.

http://bloggingthebeast.com/2013/01/27/2013-nfl-compensatory-pick-projections/

 

In determining comp picks:

 

1. Players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs are not counted.

2. Players earning low minimum salaries do not count.

3. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.

4. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed.  Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts.

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the Jets are gonna get comp picks in 2014 cause they aren't signing any replacements so far. David Garrard is not gonna outweigh the 8 guys who left. 

Garrard was cut, so he won't count in the comp pick equation at all.

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the Jets are gonna get comp picks in 2014 cause they aren't signing any replacements so far. David Garrard is not gonna outweigh the 8 guys who left. 

 

If I'm not mistaken, I don't think he will even count against the Jets, as he didn't come free as a UFA off an expired contract.  Pretty sure anyone who was either without a contract coming into FA or was cut doesn't count when it comes to comp picks, but someone can correct me if I'm wrong there.

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Some dude who projects comp picks (with 100% accuracy) uses this formula.

http://bloggingthebeast.com/2013/01/27/2013-nfl-compensatory-pick-projections/

 

In determining comp picks:

 

1. Players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs are not counted.

2. Players earning low minimum salaries do not count.

3. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.

4. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed.  Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts.

 

 

Garrard was cut, so he won't count in the comp pick equation at all.

 

Perhaps I should have finished reading the thread first, huh?  Good job, guys. :tongue:

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the Jets are gonna get comp picks in 2014 cause they aren't signing any replacements so far. David Garrard is not gonna outweigh the 8 guys who left. 

But Jets definitely will sign a few players above the vets minimum via FA before its all said and done.

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Perhaps I should have finished reading the thread first, huh?  Good job, guys. :tongue:

You are reading those rules wrong. The first rule states cut players do not count. It means, the players YOU cut and get signed elsewhere, do not count as a lost player. However, if you sign a cut player, he WILL count as a player signed, assuming he gets more than vets min.

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You are reading those rules wrong. The first rule states cut players do not count. It means, the players YOU cut and get signed elsewhere, do not count as a lost player. However, if you sign a cut player, he WILL count as a player signed, assuming he gets more than vets min.

 

Are you sure about that?  I thought cut players did not count either way, neither for those teams cutting them nor against those teams signing them.

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Are you sure about that?  I thought cut players did not count either way, neither for those teams cutting them nor against those teams signing them.

I wouldn't say 100%, but I would say Im 99% sure. The whole purpose of the comp pick is to compensate you for a player you were unable to sign or replace via FA. If we lose Revis after next  year (assuming no trade happens), we'll get a 3rd rounder. If Joe Hadden got released in 2014 and we signed him, we'll be even on the comp pick calculation since we signed Revis' replacement. The fact that Joe was cut (not happening btw), doesn't change the fact we got Revis' replacement via FA.

 

The only reason that rule 1 is in there is because you should not be compensated for a player you cut intentionally or had the opportunity to tender him.

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the Jets are gonna get comp picks in 2014 cause they aren't signing any replacements so far. David Garrard is not gonna outweigh the 8 guys who left. 

FA is one day old.  Jets have cleared up over 16 M in cap space, which they are not giving Revis, They will be signing FA's of their own

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You are reading those rules wrong. The first rule states cut players do not count. It means, the players YOU cut and get signed elsewhere, do not count as a lost player. However, if you sign a cut player, he WILL count as a player signed, assuming he gets more than vets min.

 

It is my understanding that this is not correct.  

 

If a player is cut by someone else's team then we have not "taken" him from that team.  Therefore we do not lose a compensatory pick from having one of our UFA's "taken" from us.  Garrard was an unrestricted free agent, but not because his contract expired.  Because the team who cut him is not getting a compensatory pick, it does not cost us a compensatory pick.

 

If I'm wrong then I'm wrong, but I believe Garrard's signing has no effect on our 2014 compensatory picks one way or the other since he was cut by his prior team.

 

Here is the 2012 breakdown.  Were any of the FA's acquired made available by getting cut prior to signing with the new team? (I haven't looked thoroughly yet) 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/26/nfl-announces-32-compensatory-draft-choices-to-15-teams/

 

Like I said, I could be wrong, but this is the way I always thought it was.

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  Getting a bunch of compensatory 5th and 6th and 7th round picks  in 2014 isn't exactly going to turn the team into gold.  And it sure won't convince a team to give them the #2 pick in the draft for a bunch of late second day draft picks.

Maybe they get a 3rd rounder if Revis leaves next season in 2015.    

 

  It could add depth, add a player here or there, but rounds 1-4 are going to tell you a lot about where this team is headed.  

When you're rebuilding and cutting costs, there are no lost seasons.   The draft has to turn 4+ starters.  And good starters. 

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  Getting a bunch of compensatory 5th and 6th and 7th round picks  in 2014 isn't exactly going to turn the team into gold.  And it sure won't convince a team to give them the #2 pick in the draft for a bunch of late second day draft picks.

Maybe they get a 3rd rounder if Revis leaves next season in 2015.    

 

  It could add depth, add a player here or there, but rounds 1-4 are going to tell you a lot about where this team is headed.  

When you're rebuilding and cutting costs, there are no lost seasons.   The draft has to turn 4+ starters.  And good starters. 

 

Maybe not, but it could lead the team to trading a 5th rounder one year for a 4th rounder the following year since they have an extra 5th round compensatory pick that they must take.  Or moving up 10-20 places in round 3 or 4 next year for the same reason.

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Maybe not, but it could lead the team to trading a 5th rounder one year for a 4th rounder the following year since they have an extra 5th round compensatory pick that they must take.  Or moving up 10-20 places in round 3 or 4 next year for the same reason.

 

 

  I agree the picks could help, but we don't know if they'll sign some other players who cancel out another player.  Losing Revis is one thing, easy to figure out what kind of pick they might get,  losing a bunch of players like they have been losing,  they might get nothing if they sign some avg player on the cheap.       

 

  it's more about drafting good players then hoping you get a bunch of 6th round picks cause you cut costs.

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  I agree the picks could help, but we don't know if they'll sign some other players who cancel out another player.  Losing Revis is one thing, easy to figure out what kind of pick they might get,  losing a bunch of players like they have been losing,  they might get nothing if they sign some avg player on the cheap.       

 

  it's more about drafting good players then hoping you get a bunch of 6th round picks cause you cut costs.

 

All those "little" contracts like Devito and Greene add up.

 

The sucky one will be if Keller only signs a show-me 1-year deal from someone.

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It is my understanding that this is not correct.  

 

If a player is cut by someone else's team then we have not "taken" him from that team.  Therefore we do not lose a compensatory pick from having one of our UFA's "taken" from us.  Garrard was an unrestricted free agent, but not because his contract expired.  Because the team who cut him is not getting a compensatory pick, it does not cost us a compensatory pick.

 

If I'm wrong then I'm wrong, but I believe Garrard's signing has no effect on our 2014 compensatory picks one way or the other since he was cut by his prior team.

 

Here is the 2012 breakdown.  Were any of the FA's acquired made available by getting cut prior to signing with the new team? (I haven't looked thoroughly yet) 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2012/03/26/nfl-announces-32-compensatory-draft-choices-to-15-teams/

 

Like I said, I could be wrong, but this is the way I always thought it was.

 

This was my understanding of the situation as well.  I tried to look up the comp pick rules earlier but wasn't able to find anything worthwhile on the first pass.  Will look a little closer later and see what I can come up with.

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All those "little" contracts like Devito and Greene add up.

 

The sucky one will be if Keller only signs a show-me 1-year deal from someone.

Even if Keller signs a 1-yr showcase deal, he will still get about $4mil+. That should give us a 5th rounder if we don't sign anyone in that bracket. Greene will net us a 6th rounder. Revis, if not traded or resigned of course, will net us a 3rd rounder. Devito will probably net us a 5th rounder. Moore would be around 6th rounder and so on...Then we'll be taking off the signed players as against their respective comp pick bracket (7th, 6th, 5th...). The net is what we'll get and I believe the limit is 4 comp picks a team.

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Even if Keller signs a 1-yr showcase deal, he will still get about $4mil+. That should give us a 5th rounder if we don't sign anyone in that bracket. Greene will net us a 6th rounder. Revis, if not traded or resigned of course, will net us a 3rd rounder. Devito will probably net us a 5th rounder. Moore would be around 6th rounder and so on...Then we'll be taking off the signed players as against their respective comp pick bracket (7th, 6th, 5th...). The net is what we'll get and I believe the limit is 4 comp picks a team.

 

If Keller hit FA a year earlier he'd get more, leading to a higher pick.  From that perspective it's sucky.  Or suckier, maybe I should have said.

 

And yes, it is my understanding that you can't have more than 4 comp picks in any 1 season.  But Revis wouldn't count the same year as Devito, Moore, Greene, & Keller anyway.  If we keep Revis and he plays out 2013 then we wouldn't get a compensatory pick for him until 2015.

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Here’s the complete rundown of 2013 compensatory picks:

Atlanta Falcons (four picks): one fourth-rounder (No. 133), three seventh-rounders (Nos. 243, 244, 249).

Baltimore Ravens (four): one fourth-rounder (No. 130), one-fifth-rounder (No. 168), one sixth-rounder (No. 203), one seventh-rounder (No. 247).

Tennessee Titans (three): one third-rounder (No. 97), one sixth-rounder (No. 202), one seventh-rounder (N0. 248).

San Francisco 49ers (three): one fourth-rounder (No. 131), two seventh-rounders (Nos. 246, 252).

Houston Texans (two): one third-rounder (No. 95), one sixth-rounder (No. 201).

Kansas City Chiefs (two): one third-rounder (No. 96), one sixth-rounder (No. 2o4).

Detroit Lions (two): one fourth-rounder (No. 132), one seventh-rounder (No. 245).

Miami Dolphins (two): one fifth-rounder (No. 166), one seventh-rounder (No. 250).

Cincinnati Bengals (two): two seventh-rounders (Nos. 240, 251).

Seattle Seahawks (two): two seventh-rounders (Nos. 241, 242).

Green Bay Packers (one): a fifth-rounder (No. 167).

Oakland Raiders (one): a sixth-rounder (No. 205).

Pittsburgh Steelers (one): a sixth-rounder (No. 206).

Philadelphia Eagles (one): a seventh-rounder (No. 239).

New York Giants (one): a seventh-rounder (No. 253).

Indianapolis Colts (one): a seventh-rounder (No. 254).

 

 

So SF and ATL got a bunch of comp picks, SF adds these to their already huge amount of picks this year. They are a deep team, with very few needs from this years draft. They should be a prime trade partner. (I'm not implying that comp picks should be trade, I'm saying having so many comp picks should loosen their grip on their other picks.)

 

ATL, on the other hand, if they lose Brent Grimes to the Buccaneers (as it's being reported the Bucs are losing interest in Revis and kicking the tires on Grimes) then the Falcons might be a perfect landing spot for Revis.

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So SF and ATL got a bunch of comp picks, SF adds these to their already huge amount of picks this year. They are a deep team, with very few needs from this years draft. They should be a prime trade partner. (I'm not implying that comp picks should be trade, I'm saying having so many comp picks should loosen their grip on their other picks.)

ATL, on the other hand, if they lose Brent Grimes to the Buccaneers (as it's being reported the Bucs are losing interest in Revis and kicking the tires on Grimes) then the Falcons might be a perfect landing spot for Revis.

Brent Grimes is shot. If Brent Grimes could play, he'd have a contract by now. Buccaneers are using Florio to negotiate in public and this was their response to the "Bucs would trade #13" story that was floated yesterday.

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Following are the compensatory free agents lost and signed last year by the clubs that will receive compensatory picks in the 2013 NFL Draft:

 

ATLANTA - Lost: Kelvin Hayden, Curtis Lofton, James Sanders, Eric Weems

Signed: None

 

BALTIMORE - Lost: Ben Grubbs, Jarret Johnson, Brandon McKinney, Haruki Nakamura, Cory Redding, Tom Zbikowski

Signed: Sean Considine, Corey Graham


CINCINNATI - Lost: Andre Caldwell, Nate Livings, Mike McGlynn, Frostee Rucker, Jerome Simpson

Signed: Jason Allen, Jamaal Anderson, BenJarvus Green-Ellis

 

DETROIT - Lost: Drew Stanton, Eric Wright

Signed: None


GREEN BAY - Lost: Matt Flynn, Scott Wells
Signed: Jeff Saturday

 

HOUSTON - Lost: Jason Allen, Mike Brisiel, Joel Dreessen, Mario Williams

Signed: Bradie James, Donnie Jones

 

INDIANAPOLIS - Lost: Jamaal Anderson, Pierre Garcon, Dan Orlovsky, Jeff Saturday, Jacob Tamme, Philip Wheeler

Signed: Mike McGlynn, Brandon McKinney, Cory Redding, Samson Satele, Drew Stanton, Tom Zbikowski

 

KANSAS CITY - Lost: Brandon Carr, Le’Ron McClain, Kyle Orton, Barry Richardson

Signed: Peyton Hillis, Brady Quinn

 

MIAMI - Lost: Will Allen, Chad Henne, Kendall Langford

Signed: Richard Marshall

 

NEW YORK GIANTS - Lost: Mario Manningham, Aaron Ross, David Tollefson

Signed: Martellus Bennett, Sean Locklear, Shaun Rogers

 

OAKLAND - Lost: Michael Bush, Jason Campbell, Samson Satele, Trevor Scott

Signed: Mike Brisiel, David Tollefson, Philip Wheeler

 

PHILADELPHIA - Lost: Juqua Parker, Steve Smith

Signed: Demetress Bell

 

PITTSBURGH - Lost: William Gay

Signed: None

 

SAN FRANCISCO - Lost: Blake Costanzo, Joshua Morgan, Madieu Williams

Signed: Mario Manningham

 

SEATTLE - Lost: Atari Bigby, John Carlson, David Hawthorne, Charlie Whitehurst

Signed: Matt Flynn, Jason Jones

 

TENNESSEE - Lost: Cortland Finnegan, William Hayes, Jason Jones

Signed: None



 



 

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Wait.  Drew Stanton counted against the Colts?  The Jets signed him.  The Colts traded for him. I guess this negates having another team sign your player and then trading him back, but it seems like there would be other implications.

 

I believe they call that the yo-yo.

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This year's leaving free agents will affect next year's compensatory picks.  

 

Even then, it depends on the free agents we sign this year and their respective values.  

 

 

schefter said a lot of our signings were waived, so we could have a ton of comp picks in 2014

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schefter said a lot of our signings were waived, so we could have a ton of comp picks in 2014

 

That seems to be the strategy.  We're not just focused on signing depth players, but we seem to only be looking in the waived/cut pool.  Maximizing compensation minimizes the risk. 

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