Greg Cosell HEARTS Cordarrelle Patterson and Tavon Austin

[T0mShane]

The Cosell Doctrine Part One: Wild card receivers set the tone more than ever

by Greg Cosell

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/cosell-doctorine-part-1-wild-card-receivers-set-163054246--nfl.html

There are two players in this year’s NFL draft that I find compelling in so many ways. Both are wide receivers: Cordarrelle Patterson and Tavon Austin. Each is fascinating as an individual prospect, with explosive athleticism and multi-dimensional skills that mesmerize and captivate. Even for an old tape hound like me who rarely gets excited with the remote in my hand, evaluating Patterson and Austin was a lot of fun. There were many times I found myself audibly saying ”Wow”; believe me, that does not happen too often when I’m watching tape.

In certain respects, Patterson and Austin were similar; in other ways, they were different. The most visible distinction was size: Patterson is almost 6-foot-2 and 216 pounds; Austin is just over 5-foot-8 and weighs in at 173 pounds. The similarities were a function of utilization and talent; both aligned all over the formation, including in the backfield, and each possesses an extraordinary combination of flash quickness, lateral explosion, stop and start acceleration and top end speed. Both are live wires with the ball in their hands: shifty, elusive and unpredictable, with the ability to turn routine plays into impact, game changing masterpieces. Was there a better singular performance this past college season than Austin’s work of art versus Oklahoma? Aligned as the running back behind Geno Smith in the Pistol formation, Austin rushed 21 times for 344 yards. They were all basic zone runs that are the foundation of many running games. Let that sink in for a moment. 344 yards.

Then there was Patterson versus Troy. He caught a number of short passes in front of the corner, and then turned them into video games. He has open field instincts and movement that you cannot teach. When you watch him weaving and cutting his way through a defense, you lose sight of how big he is. Keep in mind that he has much work to do as a receiver. At this point, with his lack of experience, he is not as quick, fast or explosive running routes as he is with the ball in his hands. My guess is that won’t dramatically affect his draft status; there are not many players that size with that kind of ability. Those that have it get drafted in the top half of the first round.

Austin, on the other hand, is a more intriguing projection to the NFL, simply because of his size. The argument, and I intellectually understand it, is that there have not been many 173-pound receivers/backs that have been successful in the NFL. The principal concern focuses on durability. He’s a small man in a big man’s game, and therefore it is just a matter of time before he gets hurt. Of course, that’s a purely speculative contention based on some vague and nebulous sense of percentages, the notion that slightly built players are far more prone to injury. It sounds right, so we accept it. And it may be true. It will eventually become an “access to the result” argument. If Austin gets hurt, those who vehemently expressed it will say, “I told you so.”

This is where I present my philosophy as to the changing nature of the NFL game, the direction in which I see it moving, and what I believe may well become the “new normal”. Broadly, we’ve seen a number of factors take shape in recent years. We all know the NFL is now predominantly a passing league, driven by the quarterback. We’ve all seen the continued integration and fusion of college spread concepts with NFL passing game principles. None of this is revelatory. I have given a lot of thought to what I think this all means when you drill down deeper, put it under the microscope, and look ahead.

To start, let’s look at the New England Patriots. Visualize what they have done the last couple of seasons. They have aligned with “12” personnel (one back, two tight ends and two wide receivers), the “tight ends” being Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. The reason I put tight ends in parentheses is that Gronkowski, and more specifically Hernandez, align anywhere and everywhere in the formation. I can’t tell you how many times watching tape I have seen Hernandez in the backfield, and Gronkowski flexed or split. That puts a major burden on the defense, both in terms of personnel, and coverage. Do you stay base, or do you play nickel? Can you match up man-to-man, or must you play zone? I spoke to a defensive coordinator who told me “12” personnel in general is a very difficult matchup, and against the Patriots in particular.

Now look at the Green Bay Packers. They presented a different personnel grouping with four wide receivers on the field, either with a back or a tight end. When it was a tight end, it was often Jermichael Finley, and he presents his own set of problems. Randall Cobb was the wild card. He aligned in every receiver position, including the backfield, where he was a threat as both a receiver and a runner. You have to think about this from a defensive coordinator’s perspective. There’s so much you have to have an answer for. Start with alignment. Normally when a player is offset in the backfield, he’s not dealt with by the defense as an immediate vertical threat since he’s not on the line of scrimmage. But with Cobb, and his speed and route running quickness, you must treat him that way, or he could be down the seam in a heartbeat.

Let’s expand the concept. It’s Aaron Rodgers in the shotgun, Cobb offset in the backfield, Finley split, with three wide receivers. Defensively, it’s more than likely you have to counter that with dime personnel. If you play man-to-man, who matches up to Cobb: the single linebacker, a safety? You can pose the same question for Finley. Either way, the answer you get is not one you’re comfortable with. In man coverage, you have matchup problems.

One final point, and it leads me directly into the “Cosell Doctrine”. I wrote about the Seattle Seahawks a number of weeks ago, specifically relating to the trade for Percy Harvin. I made the point that Seattle did not acquire Harvin solely to line him up at wide receiver. He will be so much more than that. He will align everywhere in the formation, the ultimate chess piece that can attack from anywhere on the board. Just like Cobb in Green Bay and Hernandez in New England. This is the light bulb moment. That’s exactly what Austin should be in the NFL. Those who see him solely as a slot receiver are stuck in conventional thinking, and missing the larger, more expansive point. Austin is not a static, inert player. He’s a movement player, a peripatetic ball of energy that creates all kinds of matchup issues for defenses.

I believe Austin, Hernandez, Cobb and Harvin are representative of where NFL teams would like to go with their personnel, and their passing concepts. The objective is to have five receivers, and certainly four, who can align all over the formation. Traditionally, they can be wide receivers, tight ends or running backs. It can be the Patriots with their “12” personnel. Or the Packers, with their four-wide receiver personnel. From a schematic perspective, it doesn’t matter how you define them by position. The overriding, and superseding point is that they are all movable chess pieces, all “Jokers”, to use the term that I’ve used before and I think is aptly descriptive.

That’s the “Cosell Doctrine”, and that’s the direction I see the NFL game trending. It’s about passing, and how you can create, and ultimately dictate favorable matchups. You do that with players that are amorphous and fluid in their ability to be utilized in ways both multiple and expansive, yet somewhat unstructured based on conventional definitions.

Of course, you have to have receivers capable of that, but more often than not it’s just a matter of thinking outside the box, seeing things with a slightly different perspective. There are far more receivers, including the influx of athletic tight ends that continue to come into the NFL, with the physical attributes to be multi-dimensional “move” players than one might think at first glance. And don’t forget running backs with these capabilities. Believe me, there are more players like Darren Sproles in the college game, with the receiving skill set to be deployed in diverse ways. It always takes a small leap of faith to try something a little different, but I sense strongly this is where we’re headed. It’s another step forward in the evolution of NFL offense. It may be in its early stages, but don’t be surprised when the “Cosell Doctrine” becomes the new normal.

[JetsFanInDenver]

They are very good talent. But are they #9 pick worthy. Don't think so.

 

This is a draft where its good to be in the mid to lower teens. Unfortunately we are in the Top 10.

 

Last draft would have been great to be in the Top 10. We were in the mid to lower teens.

 

Story of the JETS franchise!

[Integrity28]

They are very good talent. But are they #9 pick worthy. Don't think so.

 

This is a draft where its good to be in the mid to lower teens. Unfortunately we are in the Top 10.

 

Last draft would have been great to be in the Top 10. We were in the mid to lower teens.

 

Story of the JETS franchise!

 

Meh, this is a naive point of view, nobody remembers if you picked a stud WR #9 or #11 overall if the dude gets into the league and ends up legit.

[JetsFanInDenver]

Meh, this is a naive point of view, nobody remembers if you picked a stud WR #9 or #11 overall if the dude gets into the league and ends up legit.

 

We humans do not possess the intelligence of a douchy APE!

[Gastineau Lives]

They are very good talent. But are they #9 pick worthy. Don't think so.

 

This is a draft where its good to be in the mid to lower teens. Unfortunately we are in the Top 10.

 

Last draft would have been great to be in the Top 10. We were in the mid to lower teens.

 

Story of the JETS franchise!

God, I wish we had won a couple of more games last year so we could get a great player that we really want. WHY GOD WHYYYYYYYY??

[JetsFanInDenver]

God, I wish we had won a couple of more games last year so we could get a great player that we really want. WHY GOD WHYYYYYYYY??

 

That was so funny. Now back to your knees bitch!

 

Someday I will find the time to update my Ignore List!

[derp]

I also heart Cordarrelle Patterson and Tavon Austin. Super easy to make an argument for why either makes sense on the Jets. I liked Cosell talking about getting multiple sets out of one personnel grouping too. Kind of like the opposite of the Jets switching tight ends for running/passing downs (and RB's too since Greene couldn't catch). Would be nice for a change of pace.

[bitonti]

If the Jets take Tavon Austin that's basically the Santana Moss pick again. A couple of game winning returns, some long TDs but not a true #1 WR.  

 

If he had the career of Santana Moss it would be a great pick. But fans turned on Santana and called him sideline.got news for all the austin fans, Tavon Austin also runs out of bounds. Alot. I was ok with Santana's habit and I'm ok with it in Tavon.  Maybe it's a different NFL and the fans will understand. 

[SayNoToDMC]

If the Jets take Tavon Austin that's basically the Santana Moss pick again. A couple of game winning returns, some long TDs but not a true #1 WR.

If he had the career of Santana Moss it would be a great pick. But fans turned on Santana and called him sideline.got news for all the austin fans, Tavon Austin also runs out of bounds. Alot. I was ok with Santana's habit and I'm ok with it in Tavon. Maybe it's a different NFL and the fans will understand.

Your point is moot. We don't have a QB to throw him the ball this year and by the time the competition committee is done next year he'll be one of the league's top two hand touch threats.

[Larz]

so cordarelle had a good day agianst troy

 

heart this, lol

[Obrien2Toon]

Wouldn't mind Austin pick if we were a playmaker away from a Super Bowl run, but this team is a mess.

Need to build from the ground up. I want a olineman and a pass rusher.

Ansah and Warmack would be perfect. Trading back and getting Jones would also be great.

[sirlancemehlot]

Costello argues that being a little man in a big mans game doesn't mean necessarily that the little man is more likely to get hurt. Huh? It's like arguing that an Aston Martin isn't likely to get more damage when it collides with a 1977 Cadillac el dorado. Physics mr Cosell. Physics don't lie. Big man is heavier bodied, with more mass, thicker bones, thicker ligaments and tendons, and presents a problem when we look at the equation F = M(A). Force equals mass time acceleration. Also P = M(V) or momentum equals mass times velocity. According to physics, we can surmise that a 5'8" individual weighing less than 175 lbs is likely to get broken in today's NFL. it's science.

[T0mShane]

Injury prone guys get injured because they're injury prone, not because of their size. Hakeem Nicks is built like an MMA fighter and he's constantly injured. Austin had the ball in his hands over 300 times the past two years and somehow managed to stay alive in a physical conference. If a guy gets hit dead on, it doesn't matter how big he is--it's going to hurt the same and he'll have the same opportunity for injury regardless of his size.

Santana Moss was loathed here because he'd sit out for weeks at a time if his hamstring was sore--a condition that magically disappeared when he got away from Herm.

[T0mShane]

Listening to the Charles Davis/Daniel Jeremiah podcast because I'm a loser. They're saying that Patterson's issue is that he interviews like a thug, but the people at Tennessee say that he's a good dude.

[bitonti]

Injury prone guys get injured because they're injury prone, not because of their size. Hakeem Nicks is built like an MMA fighter and he's constantly injured. Austin had the ball in his hands over 300 times the past two years and somehow managed to stay alive in a physical conference. If a guy gets hit dead on, it doesn't matter how big he is--it's going to hurt the same and he'll have the same opportunity for injury regardless of his size. 

 

are there any 174 pound starting WR in the league? I'm not asking rhetorically.

 

there's not a fair comparison for Tavon Austin in the NFL. McCluster? Sproles? both running backs.

 

Not saying he can't be the first but it's rational to believe a smaller player could get hurt more easily when he gets to the league. 

[T0mShane]

are there any 174 pound starting WR in the league? I'm not asking rhetorically.

 

there's not a fair comparison for Tavon Austin in the NFL. McCluster? Sproles? both running backs.

 

Not saying he can't be the first but it's rational to believe a smaller player could get hurt more easily when he gets to the league. 

 

 

To quote Jeremiah: "[Austin] is built like a running back. He's not a wimpy dude."

 

Santonio Holmes, DeSean Jackson, Percy Harvin, and Wes Welker are all favorable comparisons. Among them, Welker is the only one who can bench his body weight. You can no longer drill a defenseless receiver. You can no longer drill a receiver running through your zone without the ball. The rules, as Cosell mentions, have changed the passing game to accomodate these kind of players now. This isn't 1991. Ronnie Lott doesn't play in the league anymore.

[bitonti]

To quote Jeremiah: "[Austin] is built like a running back. He's not a wimpy dude."

 

Santonio Holmes, DeSean Jackson, Percy Harvin, and Wes Welker are all favorable comparisons. Among them, Welker is the only one who can bench his body weight. You can no longer drill a defenseless receiver. You can no longer drill a receiver running through your zone without the ball. The rules, as Cosell mentions, have changed the passing game to accomodate these kind of players now. This isn't 1991. Ronnie Lott doesn't play in the league anymore.

 

and yet if we look at those receivers, none of them went top 20 in the draft (percy i believe was the highest at 22). I agree he can be a good player i disagree with the value. All the "don't take a guard" people say it hasn't happened for 25 years. Well at least it happened. no one as small as Tavon Austin has gone top 10 in the draft... ever. 

[CrazyCarl40]

To quote Jeremiah: "[Austin] is built like a running back. He's not a wimpy dude."

 

Santonio Holmes, DeSean Jackson, Percy Harvin, and Wes Welker are all favorable comparisons. Among them, Welker is the only one who can bench his body weight. You can no longer drill a defenseless receiver. You can no longer drill a receiver running through your zone without the ball. The rules, as Cosell mentions, have changed the passing game to accomodate these kind of players now. This isn't 1991. Ronnie Lott doesn't play in the league anymore.

 

And aside from Wes Welker (who has benefited hugely from Brady and was drafted by whom and where?), the other three have a combined three seasons of 1,000 yards or more.  Sweet.

[T0mShane]

and yet if we look at those receivers, none of them went top 20 in the draft (percy i believe was the highest at 22). I agree he can be a good player i disagree with the value. All the "don't take a guard" people say it hasn't happened for 25 years. Well at least it happened. no one as small as Tavon Austin has gone top 10 in the draft... ever. 

 

If you re-drafted any of them, they'd all go considerably higher than they went, no?

[derp]

Austin does a good job avoiding hits when he plays. Never missed a practice in college, let alone a game.  He's a tough dude and at least historically has proven he knows how to stay healthy. Guys in college were bigger than he was, too. It's definitely a concern projecting him to the league, but there are arguments in his favor too.

 

The league is all about creating mismatches at this point. Tavon Austin is easily too quick to be covered by a linebacker or a safety. And he's fast enough to stretch defenses deep, which most slot receivers don't do. New rules protect receivers too which makes size less important. The way the NFL is right now, a guy like Austin can really thrive.

[T0mShane]

And aside from Wes Welker (who has benefited hugely from Brady and was drafted by whom and where?), the other three have a combined three seasons of 1,000 yards or more.  Sweet.

 

 

Their teams should totally cut them and pick up Jerricho Cotchery

[slats]

and yet if we look at those receivers, none of them went top 20 in the draft (percy i believe was the highest at 22). I agree he can be a good player i disagree with the value. All the "don't take a guard" people say it hasn't happened for 25 years. Well at least it happened. no one as small as Tavon Austin has gone top 10 in the draft... ever. 

The game is evolving. The rules strongly favor the offense in the passing game. Receivers are protected by the unprotected receiver rule, with defenders in danger of a personal foul for hits that used to put defensive backs in the hall of fame.

Meanwhile, the rise of the passing game has led to the fall of the running game.

And the new CBA makes taking chances on a potentially great player worth the risk. There isn't the same pressure for a "safe pick," because the contractual risks are significantly lower.

It all adds up to more WRs going early, regardless of size, if they're difference makers on the field - and guards dropping lower and lower. Just no need for a first round guard in the quick passing NFL of today. Starting guards are available in the middle rounds every year.

[The Crusher]

Accurate QB play makes the difference if an Austin type player turns into a playmaker  or all of the sudden seems small.  Welker will look great playing with Manning like he did with Brady.  When he was with the Dolphins we all laughed when the Pats picked him up.

[unbanmadmike1]

Accurate QB play makes the difference if an Austin type player turns into a playmaker  or all of the sudden seems small.  Welker will look great playing with Manning like he did with Brady.  When he was with the Dolphins we all laughed when the Pats picked him up.

The only thing Austin and Welker have in common is less than ideal size. They are literally NOTHING alike. In fact, because Austin is a guy who can get the ball in pretty much every way, he might succeed even with an inaccurate QB. 

[slats]

Accurate QB play makes the difference if an Austin type player turns into a playmaker  or all of the sudden seems small.  Welker will look great playing with Manning like he did with Brady.  When he was with the Dolphins we all laughed when the Pats picked him up.

Yes, and there's no doubt that if Sanchez is the QB this year, the whole offense will suffer for it.

But the team can't draft based on Sanchez at QB, because that time is coming to an end. If the Jets were to take Austin and Eifert in this draft, I'd be pleased. Those two guys in their second year could do a lot to help the QB I hope the Jets draft next year.

[The Crusher]

The only thing Austin and Welker have in common is less than ideal size. They are literally NOTHING alike. In fact, because Austin is a guy who can get the ball in pretty much every way, he might succeed even with an inaccurate QB. 

 

 

I understand he is is versatile.  But he is still a small target that will do his best work after catching the ball.  Accuracy is key for these guys.  

[The Crusher]

Yes, and there's no doubt that if Sanchez is the QB this year, the whole offense will suffer for it.

But the team can't draft based on Sanchez at QB, because that time is coming to an end. If the Jets were to take Austin and Eifert in this draft, I'd be pleased. Those two guys in their second year could do a lot to help the QB I hope the Jets draft next year.

 

 

Just hard for me to get excited to draft a receiver at this point.  Like it or not SANCHEZ is the QB until he is not.  He has been and still getting paid like he is.  I just think focusing on the line and a pass rusher will do more now.  Unless this kid was a Megatron type guy that can catch passes just lofted into the air I just don;t see the value right now. 

[slats]

Just hard for me to get excited to draft a receiver at this point.  Like it or not SANCHEZ is the QB until he is not.  He has been and still getting paid like he is.  I just think focusing on the line and a pass rusher will do more now.  Unless this kid was a Megatron type guy that can catch passes just lofted into the air I just don;t see the value right now. 

I'm all for the pass rusher, or even Star at DT should he drop.

But the problems on the OL are greatly exaggerated, IMHO, because the skill position players on offense just aren't good. So getting a couple potential really good ones would go much further towards improving the offense than any guard. One of those top TEs might even make Sanchez look borderline competent. Wouldn't that be something?

[unbanmadmike1]

I understand he is is versatile.  But he is still a small target that will do his best work after catching the ball.  Accuracy is key for these guys.  

Austin can get the ball on tosses, screens, pitches, reverses and just plain old hand offs and make a lot of plays that way though. He did in college.

[The Crusher]

I'm all for the pass rusher, or even Star at DT should he drop.

But the problems on the OL are greatly exaggerated, IMHO, because the skill position players on offense just aren't good. So getting a couple potential really good ones would go much further towards improving the offense than any guard. One of those top TEs might even make Sanchez look borderline competent. Wouldn't that be something?

 

I just remember the two years we went to the AFC championship and lost it was due in a big part by a very good O line.  Practically dominant.  Made the run game nasty and opened up the sneaky little play action passes Sanchez tossed to Santonio for some nice yards gained after catch.  To me a dominant line and improve run game would do more for Mark than another receiver he cant get the ball to.  

[The Crusher]

Austin can get the ball on tosses, screens, pitches, reverses and just plain old hand offs and make a lot of plays that way though. He did in college.

 

 

I watched film and he looks unstoppable in college.  Incredible talent go's a long way in college.  In the pros most of the guys are almost jjust as good.  Just think we need players to support a talent like that right now.  

[unbanmadmike1]

I watched film and he looks unstoppable in college.  Incredible talent go's a long way in college.  In the pros most of the guys are almost jjust as good.  Just think we need players to support a talent like that right now.  

I would still say he's going to be faster and quicker than pretty much every defensive player in the NFL. 

[The Crusher]

I would still say he's going to be faster and quicker than pretty much every defensive player in the NFL. 

 

 

Yeah but it's not a one on one sport.  Takes good QB play and good play design to create one on one situations.  Truth is if I watch his highlight film three more time I would probably agree with you. LOL 

[bitonti]

 

Meanwhile, the rise of the passing game has led to the fall of the running game.

 

 

what if Tavon Austin isn't a WR? what if he's actually a running back? 

[slats]

what if Tavon Austin isn't a WR? what if he's actually a running back? 

If there were a blue chip RB in this draft, I'd be thrilled to take him at #9. Drafting RBs high makes more sense than ever under the new CBA.

If Austin turns out to be a RB, he's a guy who's gonna get you 1000 combined yards and a lot of scores, easy.