2014 NFL Draft: Top Wide Receiver Prospects

[bitonti]

  I think Beckham Jr. is legit as well. Im not an Evans fan but maybe that's ignorance.

 

by the time the draft rolls around, Beckham will be a solid first rounder. He's gonna run super fast. Evans i also wasn't that high on but if you watch his tape for example the 90+ yard TD vs Alabama he has some speed to him. I'd take either on the Jets no problem

 

 

however it's also possible the Jets sign some good FA WR and this thing isn't such a dire need. Remember that rookie WR are rarely good in their first year and the Jets need help right away. 

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

Robert Woods is the only USC receiver worth comparing Lee too as not only are their games similar, but they played with the same team at USC and against the same competition. Woods had a 40-590-3 line this year in 15 games, while also playing with the Bills' stable of quarterbacks.  Lee was night and day better than Woods at USC and I would have to say that 40 catches and 600 yards is the absolute floor for Lee as a rookie, but then again I'm also very high on Lee.

 

You can't be that high on Lee if you're concerned that removing the artificial limitation of comparing him to only one other guy ever might make you reconsider your opinion.

[Greenseed4]

^wtf

[derp]

Allen Robinson is interesting. Has a little wiggle after the catch but enough size and hops to go up and get the ball downfield too. Looks a little like Keenan Allen did last year coming out of school.

 

Brandin Cooks is another one who's really interesting because he's unbelievably quick but also plays bigger than his size with the ball in the air.

 

In my imaginary world where they sign a veteran WR to a short-term deal and draft two reasonably early, Jared Abbrederis is the perfect guy in the third or fourth to be the second one they draft. Good speed, crisp routes, solid hands - he's not built as well as you'd like and can get nicked up, but seems like a good fit for the offense and a nice long-term #2 option.

[BroadwayJoe12]

You can't be that high on Lee if you're concerned that removing the artificial limitation of comparing him to only one other guy ever might make you reconsider your opinion.

 

You're misinterpreting what I said.  It was a response to the inane comments I see about how Lee's success is somehow tethered to the past performances and failures of  former USC WRs at the NFL level. I don't understand how people can predict Lee not making the transition to the NFL, because Big Mike Williams, Dwayne Jarrett or a slew of other USC receivers were not able to.  They played with different QBs, against different competition, with a different head coach and had an entirely different type of playing-style to their games. Even though I put no stock into predicting future success based on their team's alum, if I were to oblige, I would say that Robert Woods would be the best player one could use for predictive value, considering he played with the same QB, oline and against similiar talent. Thus, since Lee completely was on another level at their time at USC, it's reasonable to believe that he would make the transition that much better.  Not basing it off the failings of a guy who's game is the polar opposite in Mike Williams, who played with and against guys who haven't been in college for roughly a decade.

[BroadwayJoe12]

Allen Robinson is interesting. Has a little wiggle after the catch but enough size and hops to go up and get the ball downfield too. Looks a little like Keenan Allen did last year coming out of school.

 

Brandin Cooks is another one who's really interesting because he's unbelievably quick but also plays bigger than his size with the ball in the air.

 

In my imaginary world where they sign a veteran WR to a short-term deal and draft two reasonably early, Jared Abbrederis is the perfect guy in the third or fourth to be the second one they draft. Good speed, crisp routes, solid hands - he's not built as well as you'd like and can get nicked up, but seems like a good fit for the offense and a nice long-term #2 option.

 

 

I also like Cooks a lot and the Biletnikoff award winner has had a pretty decent track record over the last couple decades for the most part. I haven't followed his name that much, but he must be getting a ton of comparisons to Steve Smith when he was coming out of Utah.  Both are on the small side, but are extremely aggressive at the POA and I definitely believe Cooks, like Smith, can play on the outside a lot as well.

[Greenseed4]

Odell Beckham Jr reminds me of Steve Smith.

[#27TheDominator]

You're misinterpreting what I said.  It was a response to the inane comments I see about how Lee's success is somehow tethered to the past performances and failures of  former USC WRs at the NFL level. I don't understand how people can predict Lee not making the transition to the NFL, because Big Mike Williams, Dwayne Jarrett or a slew of other USC receivers were not able to.  They played with different QBs, against different competition, with a different head coach and had an entirely different type of playing-style to their games. Even though I put no stock into predicting future success based on their team's alum, if I were to oblige, I would say that Robert Woods would be the best player one could use for predictive value, considering he played with the same QB, oline and against similiar talent. Thus, since Lee completely was on another level at their time at USC, it's reasonable to believe that he would make the transition that much better.  Not basing it off the failings of a guy who's game is the polar opposite in Mike Williams, who played with and against guys who haven't been in college for roughly a decade.

 

Well if he runs in the mid 4.6s like Jarrett then we can revisit it.  Guys that slow generally have a problem adjusting when every corner can stay in their back pocket, but I am invariably told that it doesn't matter.  Jerry Rice.  

[SenorGato]

I agree with Broadway's Mike Evans/Jimmy Graham comp, and now "get" Mike Evans. Does that make him another Mike Williams? 

[Matt39]

WR's are a bitch to predict

[HessStation]

Lee is by far the best route runner of the lot. Watching him run, you really have no idea which direction he's going to go; he's so fluid in and out of his breaks.

My knock on Lee isn't his "drop rate", it's his being light in the pants. His run-blocking is atrocious.

Separation (and hands) is all anything people should really care about. Everything else is just gravy. It's why I'm not high on Benjamin or Matthews and consider Evans a question mark until he runs.

[HessStation]

Well if he runs in the mid 4.6s like Jarrett then we can revisit it. Guys that slow generally have a problem adjusting when every corner can stay in their back pocket, but I am invariably told that it doesn't matter. Jerry Rice.

Body control and sharpness out of cuts trumps straight line speed aka Rice and Fitgerald but it's nice to have it all. More than one way to skin a cat I suppose.

And then there's game speed, which guys like Rice and Fitgerald have....

But if you can't seperate nothing else matters..

[stoicsentry]

I think I'd prefer the guy who will be the most polished and consistently productive. Like Kerley. Not a carbon copy of Kerley as a player, e.g., smaller, shiftier slot receiver. But just in the sense that he has a high floor as a player, but perhaps not as high of a ceiling.

 

Who matches that description best?

[HessStation]

I think I'd prefer the guy who will be the most polished and consistently productive. Like Kerley. Not a carbon copy of Kerley as a player, e.g., smaller, shiftier slot receiver. But just in the sense that he has a high floor as a player, but perhaps not as high of a ceiling.

Who matches that description best?

Brandin Cooks

[RutgersJetFan]

Separation (and hands) is all anything people should really care about. Everything else is just gravy. It's why I'm not high on Benjamin or Matthews and consider Evans a question mark until he runs.

 

Really? Catching is in parentheses?

[stoicsentry]

Brandin Cooks

Thanks, got someone to root for as a draft pick now. Do you like him?

[SenorGato]

Thanks, got someone to root for as a draft pick now. Do you like him?

 

From what I understand Hess seems to hate him.

[stoicsentry]

From what I understand Hess seems to hate him.

 

Well I'm just gonna put it this way. I don't want to take a flyer on a big risk guy even if he has a much better upside. We can't afford another Stephen Hill right now. Not that Stephen Hill necessarily ever had huge upside but you know what I'm getting at. Give me a guy that I can plug into the lineup each week and feel confident that, more often than not, he's going to be a contributor. Maybe not a gamebreaker, but at least a contributor.

[HessStation]

Really? Catching is in parentheses?

I was really just trying to make a point about seperation vs. just straight line so many people get caught up on. Granted the two tend to go hand and hand with the great players but there are exceptions to the rule.

Obviously hands is a must but if you can't separate you're not playing in the NFL.

[RutgersJetFan]

I was really just trying to make a point about seperation vs. just straight line so many people get caught up on. Granted the two tend to go hand and hand with the great players but there are exceptions to the rule.

Obviously hands is a must but if you can't separate you're not playing in the NFL.

Right, but if you can't catch it doesn't matter if you get open.

But if you can't get open you won't be able to catch anything.

But still even if you're open you won't be able to catch what's being thrown towards you.

But NOTHING is gonna be thrown towards you if your quarterback knows you can't catch.

BUT...

:Incredible Hulk music starts playing:

[#27TheDominator]

Body control and sharpness out of cuts trumps straight line speed aka Rice and Fitgerald but it's nice to have it all. More than one way to skin a cat I suppose.

And then there's game speed, which guys like Rice and Fitgerald have....

But if you can't seperate nothing else matters..

 

I know all about it.  Those are the same bullsh*t reasons I used to explain why I was better than all those big guys running faster than me. You can use the cone drill to try to judge some of that.  If a guy does not at least have reasonable speed, the sharpest cut will only have him open for so long and the QB will have a teeny tiny window.  

[Sperm Edwards]

Well if he runs in the mid 4.6s like Jarrett then we can revisit it.  Guys that slow generally have a problem adjusting when every corner can stay in their back pocket, but I am invariably told that it doesn't matter.  Jerry Rice.  

 

More than just Jerry Rice, but all other things being equal faster is better.

 

Wes Welker 4.65

Larry Fitzgerald 4.63

Anquan Boldin 4.71

(plenty more I'm sure)

 

With very good to elite guys with 4.6 timed speeds, though, the "other things" clearly are not equal. 

 

(oh, and these are google #s that popped up so if they're wrong write to the google)

[#27TheDominator]

More than just Jerry Rice, but all other things being equal faster is better.

 

Wes Welker 4.65

Larry Fitzgerald 4.63

Anquan Boldin 4.71

(plenty more I'm sure)

 

With very good to elite guys with 4.6 timed speeds, though, the "other things" clearly are not equal. 

 

(oh, and these are google #s that popped up so if they're wrong write to the google)

 

My issue is not that you can't succeed if you are an over 4.6 guy, it is just way too difficult to predict.  At 4.65 or 4.7 you can still be a beast in college.  Some of those guys will be able to transition when all the defensive players are faster than them and some will not and the eye test is not telling you which one it will be exactly. .

 

FWIW, the Fitzgerald times have long been in dispute.  AFAIK he did not run at the combine and ran a 4.53 and 4.47 at his pro day.  Pro day numbers are generally less reliable, but that is pretty far from a 4.63. I honestly think the 4.63 number was a made up estimate. it becomes an "internet fact" consistently quoted with no reference whatsoever.  Welker ran a 4.65, but I think he had sick cone numbers which is what you want in the slot. For every Anquan Boldin there are 500 Peter Warrick, Dwayne Jarrett and Patrick Turners - and those are some of the guys with better careers that ran slow. 

 

Jordan White!  Steal of the draft!

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

My issue is not that you can't succeed if you are an over 4.6 guy, it is just way too difficult to predict.  At 4.65 or 4.7 you can still be a beast in college.  Some of those guys will be able to transition when all the defensive players are faster than them and some will not and the eye test is not telling you which one it will be exactly. .

 

FWIW, the Fitzgerald times have long been in dispute.  AFAIK he did not run at the combine and ran a 4.53 and 4.47 at his pro day.  Pro day numbers are generally less reliable, but that is pretty far from a 4.63. I honestly think the 4.63 number was a made up estimate. it becomes an "internet fact" consistently quoted with no reference whatsoever.  Welker ran a 4.65, but I think he had sick cone numbers which is what you want in the slot. For every Anquan Boldin there are 500 Peter Warrick, Dwayne Jarrett and Patrick Turners - and those are some of the guys with better careers that ran slow. 

 

Jordan White!  Steal of the draft!

 

Receiver is just a weird position to handicap. The top guys are basically the safest picks there are. Megatron, Crabtree, Dez, Julio and Green, etc. These guys basically don't bust at all, and then after that it's a total crapshoot. You're always walking the line between production and projection. If there's a big difference between Jarrett's college tape and Alshon Jeffrey's I certainly never saw it.

[HessStation]

Right, but if you can't catch it doesn't matter if you get open.

But if you can't get open you won't be able to catch anything.

But still even if you're open you won't be able to catch what's being thrown towards you.

But NOTHING is gonna be thrown towards you if your quarterback knows you can't catch.

BUT...

:Incredible Hulk music starts playing:

 

The parenthesis weren't meant to the diminish the importance of one or the other. It was added bc I knew there would be some douche who got all bent out of shape if I didn't mention it. hmmm. So anyway, my only point was that speed is only one variable to whether the guy can get open (or separate). 

 

But yeah, he would have to get open FIRST, before he caught the ball.  *watches carefully

[HessStation]

I know all about it.  Those are the same bullsh*t reasons I used to explain why I was better than all those big guys running faster than me. You can use the cone drill to try to judge some of that.  If a guy does not at least have reasonable speed, the sharpest cut will only have him open for so long and the QB will have a teeny tiny window.  

 

Basically my only point, 40's are important but not end all. We are all guilty of it, seems like fans and even teams alike.  If Mike Evans runs high 4.6's I'd get pretty nervous Jet picking him at 18. 

[RutgersJetFan]

It was added bc I knew there would be some douche who got all bent out of shape if I didn't mention it. hmmm.

 

You heartless bastard.

[Miss Lonelyhearts]

Basically my only point, 40's are important but not end all. We are all guilty of it, seems like fans and even teams alike.  If Mike Evans runs high 4.6's I'd get pretty nervous Jet picking him at 18. 

 

I don't really care about timed speed for Evans because of his quarterback. I do like Manziel but the dude is basically Sanchez in terms of being totally reliant on his receivers getting separation.

[slats]

Receiver is just a weird position to handicap. The top guys are basically the safest picks there are. Megatron, Crabtree, Dez, Julio and Green, etc. These guys basically don't bust at all, and then after that it's a total crapshoot. You're always walking the line between production and projection. If there's a big difference between Jarrett's college tape and Alshon Jeffrey's I certainly never saw it.

Plenty of those top guys bust - just ask the Lions, pre-Megratron. It's probably the scariest position for a team to draft high after QB.

[#27TheDominator]

Plenty of those top guys bust - just ask the Lions, pre-Megratron. It's probably the scariest position for a team to draft high after QB.

 

Yeah.  I was going to say... Charles Rogers, Mike WIlliams... can't miss! 

[#27TheDominator]

The parenthesis weren't meant to the diminish the importance of one or the other. It was added bc I knew there would be some douche who got all bent out of shape if I didn't mention it. hmmm. So anyway, my only point was that speed is only one variable to whether the guy can get open (or separate). 

 

But yeah, he would have to get open FIRST, before he caught the ball.  *watches carefully

You heartless bastard.

 

Heartless bastard, meet some douche.  Some douche, heartless bastard.

 

[Greenseed4]

Basically my only point, 40's are important but not end all. We are all guilty of it, seems like fans and even teams alike.  If Mike Evans runs high 4.6's I'd get pretty nervous Jet picking him at 18. 

 

I wouldn't.  According to the metrics he caught over 25% of his balls 20 yards deep or more.  That means despite his running time (whatever it is) he's able to catch the ball down the field.  He plays like Jimmy Graham, he high points the ball, and uses his body to box-out defenders.  

 

Production trumps 40-times. 

 

That being said, if he's there at 18...I wouldn't mind trading down and targeting Jarvis Landry.  I think he's going to be the golden goose of this draft.  Picking up another 2 or 3, would go a long way to building up our roster. 

[Sperm Edwards]

My issue is not that you can't succeed if you are an over 4.6 guy, it is just way too difficult to predict.  At 4.65 or 4.7 you can still be a beast in college.  Some of those guys will be able to transition when all the defensive players are faster than them and some will not and the eye test is not telling you which one it will be exactly. .

 

FWIW, the Fitzgerald times have long been in dispute.  AFAIK he did not run at the combine and ran a 4.53 and 4.47 at his pro day.  Pro day numbers are generally less reliable, but that is pretty far from a 4.63. I honestly think the 4.63 number was a made up estimate. it becomes an "internet fact" consistently quoted with no reference whatsoever.  Welker ran a 4.65, but I think he had sick cone numbers which is what you want in the slot. For every Anquan Boldin there are 500 Peter Warrick, Dwayne Jarrett and Patrick Turners - and those are some of the guys with better careers that ran slow. 

 

Jordan White!  Steal of the draft!

 

No doubt.  But my point was only that a straightaway, unobstructed, 40 yard timed run in gym shorts isn't the end-all of WR measurements.  Even with sick height to complement it.  Otherwise guys like Stephen Hill and Chaz Schilens would be great.  Warrick et al didn't have those other extras that other (without elite speed) also have. Whether it's a smart head for the game, hard work on becoming the most precise route runner who fools everyone with his quick cuts, elite hands (or just works on it and works on it and works on it), jumping ability (and ability to catch while in the air with full extension) that can effectively make a 5'10" guy seem as big of a target as a 6'3" guy.  Lots of stuff.  

 

You bring up how quick someone like Welker is.  Other successful slot guys are like that who weren't burners.  If you cut that hard/sharply, and get the DB leaning the other way in doing so, you can create a quick 2+yards of separation right in front of the QB's face.  Often that's easier than creating that same separation by being faster, since it's not typically a foot race where the WR and DB start on the same line.  In that case, a 4.35 guy is going to get that separation from a 4.47 CB.  But if the CB jams him a bit or just plays off him from the time of the snap, it's a lot harder to gain separation just by running in a straight line.  I mean, you already know this so I don't know why I'm babbling, but if it was so much about straightaway speed, then Stephen Hill would always be open; there aren't too many guys in the league as fast as he is (let alone 2nd/3rd CBs on someone's defense, which is who's regularly covering him).  

 

However, as I said earlier, all other things being equal I prefer straightaway speed to not having it.  And yes, it is less common for a 4.6+ guy to be average starters, let alone above-average or borderline #1-#2 'tweeners.  With a 1st-2nd round pick, we're expecting at worst a higher-end #2 guy or we call the pick a bust (or relative bust).  And the Brandon Lloyd's of the league are uncommon.

[#27TheDominator]

I wouldn't.  According to the metrics he caught over 25% of his balls 20 yards deep or more.  That means despite his running time (whatever it is) he's able to catch the ball down the field.  He plays like Jimmy Graham, he high points the ball, and uses his body to box-out defenders.  

 

Production trumps 40-times. 

 

That being said, if he's there at 18...I wouldn't mind trading down and targeting Jarvis Landry.  I think he's going to be the golden goose of this draft.  Picking up another 2 or 3, would go a long way to building up our roster. 

 

Disagree.  College production is college production.  What the do when all the players are bigger or faster is not always the same. 

NCAA Receiving Leaders (2008-2011) Name Year Catches (Rk) Yards (Rk) TDs (Rk) Jordan White (W. Michigan) 2011 140 (1) 1,911 (1) 17 (3) Greg Salas (Hawaii) 2010 119 (2) 1,889 (1) 14 (4) Freddie Barnes (Bowling Green) 2009 155 (1) 1,770 (2) 19 (1) Austin Collie (BYU) 2008 106 (3) 1,538 (1) 15 (4)

 

EDIT:  Sorry that his formatted so badly.  It was such a nice chart.  Suffice it to say, the 2013 Jets were totally devoid of weapnz, but had two of the leading production NCAA WRs from 2008-2011.  White and Salas.  They had a third in for a tryout and elected not to sign him. Collie, the only legit NFL WR on the list.  Two are out of football. Ability trumps production.  

 

I like Landry a bunch too.  That usually means that he will go earlier than the "projections"  or we are all probably wrong.  The third possibility is less likely.

[Greenseed4]

Disagree.  College production is college production.  What the do when all the players are bigger or faster is not always the same. 

NCAA Receiving Leaders (2008-2011) Name Year Catches (Rk) Yards (Rk) TDs (Rk) Jordan White (W. Michigan) 2011 140 (1) 1,911 (1) 17 (3) Greg Salas (Hawaii) 2010 119 (2) 1,889 (1) 14 (4) Freddie Barnes (Bowling Green) 2009 155 (1) 1,770 (2) 19 (1) Austin Collie (BYU) 2008 106 (3) 1,538 (1) 15 (4)

 

 

I like Landry a bunch too.  That usually means that he will go earlier than the "projections"  or we are all probably wrong.  The third possibility is less likely.

 

 

You know what you're talking about, and you also know that for every 'system' player you can find that puts up huge numbers (receptions, yards, etc), I can find a 4.3 guy who doesn't translate his God-given talents to the NFL because he simply can't produce on the field.  It's a balance. 

 

When I said "production" I was referring to the fact that Mike Evans can catch the ball 20+ yards down the field on 25% of his 69 catches.  I wasn't referring to his yards, or his TDs (though, those are both impressive as well).  A 6'5 jumper that wins jump balls demonstrates a skill that does translate to the NFL.  

 

Similarly, one has to assume that Landry only dropping 2 passes out of his 77 catches, also has a skill-set that will translate to the NFL.  Whether he tears up the track, or can consistently get separation at the next level, if the ball is thrown his way when he does get open, it should be a secured possession.

 

Either way, I want to add offensive talent that can catch the damn ball.