Greenseed4 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/46190/349/peshek-cb-metrics-10 Cornerbacks are a bit more tricky than other positions when it comes to their metrics. If you read a previous post on the problems with CB stats, you’ll understand that the stats are rather ambiguous and can be tricky when taken at face value. I’ll try to be transparent and put them in context, but there are many more confounding factors than say…with a running back. All numbers are hand charted by me. Because a target or ‘burn’ may be a bit subjective, the numbers won’t always line up with other stat services. However, I’ve used the same criteria for each player which means we can at least compare these stats to each other on an objective basis. Archive: QB Metrics featuring Teddy Bridgewater, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles and Johnny Manziel. WR Metrics 1.0 featuring Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Marqise Lee and Kelvin Benjamin. WR Metrics 2.0 featuring Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews, Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham and Allen Robinson. The Trinity of CB Stats These are what I like to call the trinity of CB stats. Burn rate, which is the number of completions against a defensive back divided by the total number of targets (the number below is adjusted for screens and pass interference). PD Rate which measures how often a DB gets their hands on the ball – a PD rate of 5 would mean the DB defenses the ball once every 5 targets. Finally Snaps/ Targets describes how often the DB is thrown at – the lower the number the more often a DB is targeted. - Dennard is the clear winner here when it comes to burn rate. While he was targeted at a higher rate than the rest of the CBs, once every 5.73 snaps – he rarely let the WR catch the ball with a burn rate of 27.45%. - Racking up maybe the most solid overall resume within the ‘trinity’ of stats, Jason Verrett capitalized heavily on his ball skills. He broke up one out of every 2.75 targets which makes him the best ballhawk of this group, if not the entire CB class. - For a guy who’s getting little hype, Terrance Mitchell did well across all three stat-lines. It may not seem like it, but that burn rate of 35.29% would be best for third in the entire class among the top 10 corners. The biggest concern is that while he had 5 interceptions on the year, he didn’t have many other passes defensed. - Roby by far comes out looking the worst. He certainly wasn’t helped by his scheme at Ohio State getting beat on nearly 50% of his targets, but on top of that he had the worst passes defensed rate of the entire group. If one category isn’t strong, you’d at least like to see another strong stat – not so here. Where the Ball was Thrown? This represents the total percentage of targets for each DB. Targets may not seem important when you can look at YPA/YPC, but it’s important to know if those are being skewed by a number of short or long throws. Green represents a below-average amount of targets while red represent an above-average number of targets. One isn’t better than the other, that’s just the scale I’m using. - Darqueze Dennard was targeted heavily on both short and deep passes. That certainly contributed to his lower burn percentage, but he still did a great job defending those passes as we’ll see in the next section. He was tested deep by nearly every Big Ten school he played - Verrett on the other hand was targeted much more in the intermediate 11-20 yard zone where 38% of his total targets came. You’d rather your DB not be giving up those crucial, NFL style throws, so we’ll check in on his defensive prowess there in the next section as well. - The scheme at Ohio State forced a lot of passes short on Roby where he was either expected to make a play on the ball, or make the tackle. We can see that nearly 55% of his targets came within 10 yards of the LOS. - Meanwhile, Gilbert’s came in the intermediate zones where he was targeted an above-average amount of times in the 6-20 yard areas. How Did the DBs Defend Those Throws? The completion percentage and target charts are essentially linked. It’s doesn’t matter if someone is getting beat 100% of the time if that only represents 5% of their total targets. Green is representative of an above-average completion percentage meaning that the DB defends those zones better than average. Red, of course, means their completion percentage is worse than average. - Like I mentioned, Dennard while tested deep only allowed an 8.33% completion percentage when targeted 20+ yards. That’s more than half the average for a top-level defensive back showing that his much-debated long speed may not be an issue. - We can check in on Verrett’s intermediate completion percentage, per the last section here. In the 11-20 yard zone he allowed a 31.58% of passes to be completed, which is above-average. Given how often he was targeted in that intermediate zone and an average completion percentage, that’s definitely something to keep an eye on when watching film. - Mitchell really succeeds at defending the intermediate and deep zones. His ability to defend those 11-20 yard passes, allowing only a 25% completion percentage is particularly impressive. That may make you feel comfortable about your ability to put him on an island with the WR. - Justin Gilbert’s inability to defend the intermediate zones combined with his tendency to be targeted there is throwing up all sorts of red flags. Does he have the ability to defend the NFL type routes or is he going to get picked on by better receivers and quarterbacks? Where Did They Line Up? This chart represents the technique the defensive back was playing at the start of the play. It’s been simplified down, so press-bail may not represent exact press-bail technique but situations where the DB didn’t get his hands on the WR. This can give you a feel for the experiences of each DB. These don’t tell you about their success playing these, but just the amount they played them. - Dennard stands out because the numbers bear out exactly what we’d expect – a physical presence at the line of scrimmage. He lined up in press the most out of the top CBs at 27% of the time and then still lined up in press-bail another 28% of the time. - Verrett may have the least experience playing a variety of techniques. He was lined up 1-5 yards off the line of scrimmage slightly more than half the time. He still had a decent amount of snaps where he played press – around 16% of the time. - Where Verrett may be the least rounded here, Terrance Mitchell may have the most varied experience. He still pressed the WR 24.42% of the time, but also played off-coverage another 62% of the time. - Gilbert and Roby both rarely pressed, only doing so around 11% of the time. However where Gilbert played a variety of off-coverage, Roby lined up 6-10 yards off the LOS 67% of the time. Another place the OSU scheme put him in a position to either make a play or give up a completion on short passes. Basically, Dennard is a stud among studs, and Verrett (who?) is an up-and-comer. 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Lupz27 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Dennard is a physical CB like a D Revis, and Gilbert is in more of the A Cromartie mold, Athletically awesome, but could use some coaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenseed4 Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 Dennard is a physical CB like a D Revis, and Gilbert is in more of the A Cromartie mold, Athletically awesome, but could use some coaching Dennard is physical, plays the ball, and just looks eerily similar to Revis in his backpeddle, sifting through garbage, and run-stopping. His biggest question mark has been his closing speed when beat deep... but these metrics illustrate that he's the best among his peers in that category. A lot of mocks have him dropping to the early 20s, but I don't see that being the case if these numbers are accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I don't think there are really any studs in this draft class at CB. Both Gilbert and Dennard have only been mentioned as fringe first rounders since the season ended. Roby's so inconsistent, it would be really hard to justify using a 1st on him unless you're going solely on positional value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Lonelyhearts Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Statistics are kind of dumb. Don't really see what they're telling you that the standard targets, C%, Y/A, TD don't. Charts are good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miss Lonelyhearts Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I don't think there are really any studs in this draft class at CB. Both Gilbert and Dennard have only been mentioned as fringe first rounders since the season ended. Roby's so inconsistent, it would be really hard to justify using a 1st on him unless you're going solely on positional value. I don't see CB. If we don't bring Cromartie back we'll sign somebody else. We need a cover corner period and we aren't going to risk yet another guy just not being ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This is a great resource but has the validity ever been tested? How have these metrics panned out in past years. Still a lot of holes in the intel. Level of competition, where in the game did the plays take place...blowouts vs. crunch, scheme, etc etc. Still very cool, not meaning to sh*t on anything. I don't think there's a Revis in the group though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I don't see CB. If we don't bring Cromartie back we'll sign somebody else. We need a cover corner period and we aren't going to risk yet another guy just not being ready. I agree, there's too much to address elsewhere. Idzik has to realize he's a year or two away from a complete disaster on the offensive line. Plus we're drafting high enough where there will be BPA at something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greenseed4 Posted February 5, 2014 Author Share Posted February 5, 2014 I don't think there's a Revis in the group though. Who does this look like, then? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlM6SzXnk94 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroadwayJoe12 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 This is a great resource but has the validity ever been tested? How have these metrics panned out in past years. Still a lot of holes in the intel. Level of competition, where in the game did the plays take place...blowouts vs. crunch, scheme, etc etc. Still very cool, not meaning to sh*t on anything. I don't think there's a Revis in the group though. Pretty much what I wanted to post and have mentioned in all the threads this author has had his numbers posted in. He started awhile ago just giving the numbers and now he's progressed into giving his opinion, which is not something I particularly like. While the raw data is nice to have, he's yet to really show any sort of predictive value with them and without that, this is all just lip-service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Integrity28 Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 I don't want a corner, way too many quality FA corners available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted February 5, 2014 Share Posted February 5, 2014 Statistics are kind of dumb. Bookmarked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lupz27 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I don't want a corner, way too many quality FA corners available. Agree, if one of these guys is by far the BAP on the Jets board when they pick at 18 they need to trade out of the pick, I would love to move back maybe 7 spots grab the Louisville Safety, and another 3rd rounder, or who knows maybe some turd GM gives up a 2nd to make the move, letting the Jets grab 2 of the large crop of 2nd tier WR's, a pass rusher, and a top OG in the first 3 rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Who does this look like, then? I like Dennard too and ironically, Big 10 CBs seem to do pretty well in the NFL. (Woodson, Winfield, Hall, Gamble, V.Davis). Verrett is on the small side and played at TCU (which kind of makes me think of Kyle Wilson as a smaller guy coming out of a smaller school at Boise St...and the hair I guess) but he looks the best on film imo. Also had one of his best games against LSU. But now I'm having a Chris Houston flashback. I do like the Gilbert-Cromartie comparison, although I think Cro is like, two inches taller. I honestly spent more time watching Ekpre-Olomu than Mitchell. What I got most out of this is the proposed red flags on Roby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt39 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Bookmarked. The Bobby V mustache never fooled anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedro55 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 The Seahawks defense kind of shows you why you can't just rely on stats. Players like Sherman shouldn't even play then. And the MVP of the super bowl shouldn't even play. If all you want are the BAP according to some statistical method with no real substance behind it, it's the reason why a lot of teams suck. Stats with no substance behind them and no personal touch are no different than somebody using gut instinct without ever looking at a player, just hearing rumors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SenorGato Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Seriously - I think Dennard might be the best defensive player in this draft after Clowney (j/k forgot Mack and Barr exist). OTOH, I don't expect or really want to draft him - do not buy a Revis comp on anyone. As the first round goes if they went D I'd look at the pass rushers and maaaaaaaaaybe one of the safeties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pedro55 Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I don't care if they take a defensive player in the first round, especially if it's a guy who makes the team better and has impact right a way. But if they neglect the offense or wind up with guys like Winters and Geno, this team is going to stink again. It's one thing to improve the defense, it's another to continue to have a bad offense. And going into last season the offense stunk and everybody knew it. And here we are again with no weapons, no QB, and an offense that still stinks. So if they wind up with some great defensive players, but the offense still can't score 17 points in a game and they have no real weapons, it'll be one of those, this team is filled with idiots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Il Mostro Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It is not as though CB is a strength for this team. I really think Cro is close to being done and we can lock up a CB who can actually play for the next few year, that is fime with me. I do not care when they draft to fill needs, just so long as they score with as many picks as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastineau Lives Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 I don't think there are really any studs in this draft class at CB. Both Gilbert and Dennard have only been mentioned as fringe first rounders since the season ended. Roby's so inconsistent, it would be really hard to justify using a 1st on him unless you're going solely on positional value. This makes no sense, I was told there are guaranteed Pro Bowlers to be had, all we need to do is the smart thing and draft defense at 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SenorGato Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 It is not as though CB is a strength for this team. I really think Cro is close to being done and we can lock up a CB who can actually play for the next few year, that is fime with me. I do not care when they draft to fill needs, just so long as they score with as many picks as possible. Someone threw out Vontae Davis' name a while back and I like the fit. Right age and has the athleticism to improve while already being a viable starter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Il Mostro Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 Someone threw out Vontae Davis' name a while back and I like the fit. Right age and has the athleticism to improve while already being a viable starter. He was awful for most of the year but came on at the end of the season. Question is, was that an aberration or has he actually risen to another level in his "development"? I have no idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SenorGato Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 He was awful for most of the year but came on at the end of the season. Question is, was that an aberration or has he actually risen to another level in his "development"? I have no idea. He's been up and down his whole career, but usually ends up being a quality starter. Good bloodlines and very athletic even relative to the league....There's alot to like, I wonder if Rex could do for him what he did for Cromartie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Il Mostro Posted February 6, 2014 Share Posted February 6, 2014 He's been up and down his whole career, but usually ends up being a quality starter. Good bloodlines and very athletic even relative to the league....There's alot to like, I wonder if Rex could do for him what he did for Cromartie. He played great the last few weeks of the season/playoffs. If that could be the norm he'd be a terrific addition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlife33 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Dennard is definitely legit but I strongly doubt he'll be there at number 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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