ESPN: Running Back Cliff after 27

[CrazyCarl40]

Interesting timing of this article, especially as the Jets ponder Chris Johnson.

 

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/123542/inside-slant-running-back-cliff-after-age-27

 

Inside Slant: Running back cliff after age 27

By Kevin Seifert | ESPN.com

 

NFL general managers gather their smartest people each winter to analyze rosters, assess options and formulate a plan for the offseason marketplace. In 2014, at least, they made quick work of the running back position.

By now it's no surprise to hear or read about the plummeting value of running backs. No one wants to pay them premium salaries or even spend a first-round draft pick on one. To this conversation, I'd like to add an obvious and clear representation for why.

The fancy line graph embedded in this post, stats courtesy of ESPN Stats & Information, is similar to the type of analysis NFL teams use. It shows, in pretty stark terms, how running back production drops off after the age of 27. (Hat tip to ESPN.com editor Brett Longdin for generating the graph.)

The red line represents all running backs who have played at least four NFL seasons since 2001, with a minimum average of 75 carries per season. Overall, we see their careers peak at age 27. Afterwards, their rushing totals drop by 15 percent in one year, 25 percent in two and almost 40 by the time they are 30.

Most decision-makers -- whether their background was in scouting, accounting or anything in between -- saw that trend as a bad investment. As with any business, they reserve premium contracts for projected growth in production, not a decline.

For comparison's sake, the graph also includes the receiver position (in blue, minimum average of 50 receptions over the same time period). You'll see some fluctuations, but even at age 31, the composite receiver produced a near-identical yardage total as he did at age 27. In other words, it's reasonable to expect a high-level performance into a receiver's early 30's.

Running backs get no such benefit of the doubt, nor should they from a strict business sense. Even Minnesota Vikings tailback Adrian Peterson, one of the league's best players at any position, contributed to the curve at age 28 last season. It's true that he had the fifth-most rushing yards (1,266) in the NFL, but he also missed two games and overall fell 40 percent from his 2,097-yard effort in 2012.

That line graph, along with a season that produced its fewest total league-wide rushing yards (57,795) in six seasons, led us to the eye-opening 2014 offseason. Keep in mind that age 27 is the essential point where most players, under the current collective bargaining agreement, become free agents for the first time. At their first opportunity for a payday, the league already views them to be beyond their prime.

As of this week, teams have 177 running backs under contract. Of that group, 128 (72 percent) are 26 or younger. I counted only eight runners over the age of 29. Meanwhile, there was an obvious link between the handful of mid-20's running backs who did receive multi-year contracts this spring: None have been four-year feature backs.

The Detroit Lions will pay Joique Bell (27) the eighth-highest salary for a running back in 2014 ($4.3 million). He has 248 career carries, an average of 62 per season.

Toby Gerhart (27) will receive $4 million from the Jacksonville Jaguars. He has averaged 69 carries per season. Donald Brown (26) will also get $4 million from the San Diego Chargers after totaling 551 carries in five seasons, while Ben Tate (25) will get $3.25 million from the Cleveland Browns after totaling 421 carries in four seasons.

And that's pretty much the list. What about Knowshon Moreno, who is 26 but has 845 career rushes? He got a one-year deal from the Miami Dolphins. Maurice Jones-Drew? He's 29 and has 1,804 career carries. His contract with the Oakland Raiders guarantees him $1.2 million for 2014. He'll earn $2.5 million, assuming he makes the team.

It's fair to expect the trend to continue expanding to the draft. NFL teams didn't draft a single running back in the first round in 2013, and at the moment, ESPN's Scouts Inc. doesn't project one to be selected in the first round this year, either. (Their highest-rated runner, Ohio State's Carlos Hyde, has a mid-second round grade .)

The message is clear: Running backs of this generation picked, well, the wrong generation to be running backs. Teams want them young, cheap and fresh -- and the data makes it difficult to argue their point.

 

[SenorGato]

Lots and lots and lots and lots of mediocre backs in that pool of data. Same issue I have with these kind of numbers in baseball - top guys still age different from the vastly larger pool of mediocrity and worse. I'd say I start getting scared of top RBs at 30 and expect them to be toast somewhere between 32-34.

[ZachEY]

YPC would be a better way to look at this.  Total yards is very controlled.

[CrazyCarl40]

Lots and lots and lots and lots of mediocre backs in that pool of data. Same issue I have with these kind of numbers in baseball - top guys still age different from the vastly larger pool of mediocrity and worse. I'd say I start getting scared of top RBs at 30 and expect them to be toast somewhere between 32-34.

 

Fair point, but Chris Johnson has been in the top 5 rushing yards only twice in six seasons. He's a top 10 running back, but he's not a upper echelon, cream of the crop guy.

[faba]

We all know running backs get churned up and out -that is why it is best to have rotation like we have and Johnson as part of the three works for me

[Kleckineau]

We all know running backs get churned up and out -that is why it is best to have rotation like we have and Johnson as part of the three works for me

That would be a heck of a rotation but I think CJ prices himself out of consideration.

I woudnt blame Idzik for passing on him for value reasons.

[CrazyCarl40]

We all know running backs get churned up and out -that is why it is best to have rotation like we have and Johnson as part of the three works for me

 

Not sure he is willing to be part of a rotation or willing to be paid like someone who is.

[slats]

Thomas Jones rushed for 1312 yards at 30, and 1402 at 31 for the Jets. Although he probably fits better into the low mileage signings the article talks about. But LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 914 yards at 31, and added 368 yards with 52 receptions. I think it's pretty reasonable to to expect production like that from Chris Johnson as the primary back in the Jets rotation for two or three years. And that's the type of contract I'd expect, something in the three years/$10-11M range. Something very cuttable as early as next year.

[jgb]

Fair point, but Chris Johnson has been in the top 5 rushing yards only twice in six seasons. He's a top 10 running back, but he's not a upper echelon, cream of the crop guy.

 

top 10 is upper echelon.

[CrazyCarl40]

top 10 is upper echelon.

 

32 teams. Top 15 is upper 50%. Upper Echelon, to me, is top 5 year in and year out. He's not that.

 

I mean, the Titans drafted Lendale White to try to share carries with him.

[SenorGato]

Fair point, but Chris Johnson has been in the top 5 rushing yards only twice in six seasons. He's a top 10 running back, but he's not a upper echelon, cream of the crop guy.

 

He's a top 10 back now after being a top 2-3 back early on. Plus, there's 6 other guys in league history who managed to pull off anything similar to his best season. All had more carries on them at his age with only Davis succumbing to significant injuries around Johnson's age.

 

Then it's not just performance either - Johnson's elite performance came with elite physical skills that require a bit more of a dropoff to completely disappear. Nothing significant has happened as far as injury - no blown out knees or anything...Iunno, to me I just see a perfect fit. One year or the totally legal two year that's actually one year...easy position to translate no matter where you are or what system you're in...the position he plays will keep his price down...reeks of a clever signing for someone. 

[jgb]

32 teams. Top 15 is upper 50%. Upper Echelon, to me, is top 5 year in and year out. He's not that.

 

I mean, the Titans drafted Lendale White to try to share carries with him.

 

fair enough, seems we just have a definitional difference of opinion.

[SenorGato]

32 teams. Top 15 is upper 50%. Upper Echelon, to me, is top 5 year in and year out. He's not that.

 

I mean, the Titans drafted Lendale White to try to share carries with him.

 

Only Petersons and Tomlinsons pull that off, and you're not getting them at 28 unless you drafted them. That guy isn't in the draft and he wouldn't be a Jet if he was.

[Larz]

but johnson only needs 1 carry to go 94 yards

 

economize

[CrazyCarl40]

He's a top 10 back now after being a top 2-3 back early on. Plus, there's 6 other guys in league history who managed to pull off anything similar to his best season. All had more carries on them at his age with only Davis succumbing to significant injuries around Johnson's age.

 

Then it's not just performance either - Johnson's elite performance came with elite physical skills that require a bit more of a dropoff to completely disappear. Nothing significant has happened as far as injury - no blown out knees or anything...Iunno, to me I just see a perfect fit. One year or the totally legal two year that's actually one year...easy position to translate no matter where you are or what system you're in...the position he plays will keep his price down...reeks of a clever signing for someone. 

 

I agree he'd be a good signing, if this team was remotely close to contending for the Super Bowl. They aren't and I don't see him going anywhere without either a decent pay day or a chance at a championship.

[CrazyCarl40]

but johnson only needs 1 carry to go 94 yards

 

economize

 

That was two years ago. His long run of last season was 30, which would have been 4th best on the Jets last year.

[Clementi49]

Fantasy wise RBs production plummet. But they are still really valuable to all offenses I don't care what all the fancy graphs say. The NFL younger society likes highlight reel, down the field plays which comes from the passing game mostly. A 4 yard gain up the middle is just boring now to mostly all the younger fans that never have played football where a FB plows the way and the RB gets tough yards.

Unfortunately for RBs the NFL knows this and wants their brand to sell to everyone in the new generation so in my opinion that's why AP is probably the last of his breed.

[Larz]

That was two years ago. His long run of last season was 30, which would have been 4th best on the Jets last year.

 

I actually like him in the screen game for the jets.  MM has said that is one thing they lacked last year.  put him out there on 3rd down with vick and ford

[Matt39]

any reason why we can't draft a back instead

[NJ]

They have data that makes sense on # of touches somewhere as well. Up to a certain age touches is probably better data.

[LAD_Brooklyn]

That was two years ago. His long run of last season was 30, which would have been 4th best on the Jets last year.

Had him on my fantasy team and I'm sure he broke a 50 yard run. Or it might have been a catch and run.

[Sperm Edwards]

32 teams. Top 15 is upper 50%. Upper Echelon, to me, is top 5 year in and year out. He's not that.

 

I mean, the Titans drafted Lendale White to try to share carries with him.

Whuh? 

[Sperm Edwards]

any reason why we can't draft a back instead

 

In theory, no reason.  Idzik comes from an organization that could barely draft guys on offense (other than the line).  Since Idzik got to Seattle they've signed or traded for probably 10 veteran RBs.  Not to mention 2 very high-priced WRs while he was there (both busts) and a 3rd one after he left (another bust; never  mind the nonsense about how Harvin helped them win a SB that would have been in any danger of losing in Harvin's absence)

 

Because Geno is developing, and only because Geno is developing, I'm good with it.  He needs a RB to dump off to, and an experienced one can only help.  So much for the pre-season hype last year about how Ivory is actually a decent receiver who merely didn't get the chance before.  They threw like 4 or 5 passes to him this past year & he dropped 2-3 of them.  I certainly don't remember all the drops offhand, but I think I recall seeing one of them that was clearly his fault.  

 

A very good ground game should take a lot of pressure off Smith.  It should have taken more pressure off Sanchez, but I'm not going to re-hash all that right now.  A guy for whom the game is still very fast, like Geno, can use a safety valve.  Powell can catch, but he's not a playmaker.

 

Anyway I see this addition - if we even make the addition - as a developmental tool for Geno rather than some type of building block for the future.  But because of that, we should only pay him as such.  Otherwise, yeah, just draft one.

[Matt39]

In theory, no reason.  Idzik comes from an organization that could barely draft guys on offense (other than the line).  Since Idzik got to Seattle they've signed or traded for probably 10 veteran RBs.  Not to mention 2 very high-priced WRs while he was there (both busts) and a 3rd one after he left (another bust; never  mind the nonsense about how Harvin helped them win a SB that would have been in any danger of losing in Harvin's absence)

 

Because Geno is developing, and only because Geno is developing, I'm good with it.  He needs a RB to dump off to, and an experienced one can only help.  So much for the pre-season hype last year about how Ivory is actually a decent receiver who merely didn't get the chance before.  They threw like 4 or 5 passes to him this past year & he dropped 2-3 of them.  I certainly don't remember all the drops offhand, but I think I recall seeing one of them that was clearly his fault.  

 

A very good ground game should take a lot of pressure off Smith.  It should have taken more pressure off Sanchez, but I'm not going to re-hash all that right now.  A guy for whom the game is still very fast, like Geno, can use a safety valve.  Powell can catch, but he's not a playmaker.

 

Anyway I see this addition - if we even make the addition - as a developmental tool for Geno rather than some type of building block for the future.  But because of that, we should only pay him as such.  Otherwise, yeah, just draft one.

 

Deep draft for backs....and in the event we draft one(likely with the amount of picks) the last thing I want is CJ getting the ball because he's the veteran. 

 

What's even more puzzling is the amount of backs entering the league without an ounce of pass catching skills.

[slats]

In theory, no reason.  Idzik comes from an organization that could barely draft guys on offense (other than the line).  Since Idzik got to Seattle they've signed or traded for probably 10 veteran RBs.  Not to mention 2 very high-priced WRs while he was there (both busts) and a 3rd one after he left (another bust; never  mind the nonsense about how Harvin helped them win a SB that would have been in any danger of losing in Harvin's absence)

 

Because Geno is developing, and only because Geno is developing, I'm good with it.  He needs a RB to dump off to, and an experienced one can only help.  So much for the pre-season hype last year about how Ivory is actually a decent receiver who merely didn't get the chance before.  They threw like 4 or 5 passes to him this past year & he dropped 2-3 of them.  I certainly don't remember all the drops offhand, but I think I recall seeing one of them that was clearly his fault.  

 

A very good ground game should take a lot of pressure off Smith.  It should have taken more pressure off Sanchez, but I'm not going to re-hash all that right now.  A guy for whom the game is still very fast, like Geno, can use a safety valve.  Powell can catch, but he's not a playmaker.

 

Anyway I see this addition - if we even make the addition - as a developmental tool for Geno rather than some type of building block for the future.  But because of that, we should only pay him as such.  Otherwise, yeah, just draft one.

Also, one thing that veteran RBs almost invariably do better than rookies is pass protect. If you're looking for a guy who can come in on third down and catch a pass, you also want him to be able protect the QB. At the very least, have the ability to chip and slow down a pass rusher on his way to his safety valve spot.

Chris Johnson isn't too old to contribute solidly for another couple years. Bilal Powell is in the final year of his contract, and Idzik, in his comp pick collecting way, could be looking at letting him sign elsewhere next year - making next year a good time to draft another RB.

[Sperm Edwards]

Deep draft for backs....and in the event we draft one(likely with the amount of picks) the last thing I want is CJ getting the ball because he's the veteran. 

 

What's even more puzzling is the amount of backs entering the league without an ounce of pass catching skills.

 

I'm more concerned with Geno's development than that of a young RB.  Those guys are usually good or they aren't.  Most of the time it's just a matter of opportunity. And for the most productive ones, it's how healthy they can stay and how many nice holes they find (hey now!).  Like with Ivory.  

 

A RB isn't going to fail to develop nearly the same as a QB.  RB is such a short career anyway, typically, and also much more of an instincts/ability position more than film & stuff.  How much film is going to help a guy staring at 3 guys from the other team's front 7 who broke through our line? Probably zero.  But if he has jackrabbit skills like some have - like CJ, like Barry used to, and even like Leon used to for us - that's worth more than all the film and practice one can get.

 

Plus we can get a RB any year, and if it's in the draft, they typically develop fast.  Mostly have to worry about their blocking more than their running.  But if CJ helps Geno get some rhythm or can help prevent him from getting happy feet or forcing bad decisions, then his presence (even if temporary) is worth the price.  Plus he can stick around for a while as a still-fast 3rd down back when he's lost a full quarter-second off his 40 time.

[Sperm Edwards]

Also, one thing that veteran RBs almost invariably do better than rookies is pass protect. If you're looking for a guy who can come in on third down and catch a pass, you also want him to be able protect the QB. At the very least, have the ability to chip and slow down a pass rusher on his way to his safety valve spot.

Chris Johnson isn't too old to contribute solidly for another couple years. Bilal Powell is in the final year of his contract, and Idzik, in his comp pick collecting way, could be looking at letting him sign elsewhere next year - making next year a good time to draft another RB.

 

Just addressed this stuff in the post below yours.  Agree.

 

We can always get another RB when Ivory is too dinged up and CJ is too slow.  But veteran RBs know their blocking assignments.  Certainly better than rookies do.

[Matt39]

I'm more concerned with Geno's development than that of a young RB.  Those guys are usually good or they aren't.  Most of the time it's just a matter of opportunity. And for the most productive ones, it's how healthy they can stay and how many nice holes they find (hey now!).  Like with Ivory.  

 

A RB isn't going to fail to develop nearly the same as a QB.  RB is such a short career anyway, typically, and also much more of an instincts/ability position more than film & stuff.  How much film is going to help a guy staring at 3 guys from the other team's front 7 who broke through our line? Probably zero.  But if he has jackrabbit skills like some have - like CJ, like Barry used to, and even like Leon used to for us - that's worth more than all the film and practice one can get.

 

Plus we can get a RB any year, and if it's in the draft, they typically develop fast.  Mostly have to worry about their blocking more than their running.  But if CJ helps Geno get some rhythm or can help prevent him from getting happy feet or forcing bad decisions, then his presence (even if temporary) is worth the price.  Plus he can stick around for a while as a still-fast 3rd down back when he's lost a full quarter-second off his 40 time.

 

I'd rather play a younger guy...Johnson just isn't good anymore and our interior run blocking stinks. He tries to bounce everything outside the  second he see's trouble...Johnson is useless if he doesn't get to the second level...and Ivory basically had to do that on his own last year. Johnson can't do that anymore....plus he's afraid of contact.

 

There's a better alternative imo, who won't carry the same ego.

[Sperm Edwards]

I'd rather play a younger guy...Johnson just isn't good anymore and our interior run blocking stinks. He tries to bounce everything outside the  second he see's trouble...Johnson is useless if he doesn't get to the second level...and Ivory basically had to do that on his own last year. Johnson can't do that anymore....plus he's afraid of contact.

 

There's a better alternative imo, who won't carry the same ego.

 

If you say so.  It's reported he was playing with a torn meniscus for the last dozen-plus games, so if it's repaired I don't see how you can base the upcoming season on the last one.

 

I seriously doubt he's "afraid" of contact.  He's a RB.

 

Who else do you have in mind? There's a good chance Johnson prices himself out of a Jets uniform anyway (meaning if his agent says he wants more than $800K Idzik will start clutching his chest like he's faking a massive coronary, then take two $100 bills out of his wallet and say this is what he had in mind for a signing bonus).

[Matt39]

If you say so.  It's reported he was playing with a torn meniscus for the last dozen-plus games, so if it's repaired I don't see how you can base the upcoming season on the last one.

 

I seriously doubt he's "afraid" of contact.  He's a RB.

 

Who else do you have in mind? There's a good chance Johnson prices himself out of a Jets uniform anyway (meaning if his agent says he wants more than $800K Idzik will start clutching his chest like he's faking a massive coronary, then take two $100 bills out of his wallet and say this is what he had in mind for a signing bonus).

 

Powell will still be on the team, plus a rookie most likely. Goodson too. There are a couple of backs I'd like to draft and immediately give carries. Tre Mason being one.

[Sperm Edwards]

Powell will still be on the team, plus a rookie most likely. Goodson too. There are a couple of backs I'd like to draft and immediately give carries. Tre Mason being one.

 

I think they just want a more dynamic RB than Powell, even with all the fluff Rex blew his way for the first month or two.  They want him as the 3rd back, not the 3rd down back. Goodson may not be ready (and probably not 100%) in September, let alone all summer long.  Plus there's still a chance he's going to be in jail as well.  That would leave us with the same 2 as last year - who the team themselves want to upgrade from - plus a rookie.  

 

Like I said, I think pass blocking is a big part of it.  Rookies are often unreliable in this area, no matter how talented they are.

[Sperm Edwards]

Re: Tre Mason, this is obviously only one author's opinion, but it's the first one I clicked on:

 

http://www.bigblueview.com/2014-nfl-draft-mock-order-prospects-picks-new-york-giants/2014/2/23/5393468/2014-nfl-draft-prospect-profile-tre-mason-rb-auburn-new-york-giants

 

Cons

- One speed runner who lacks that high gear to out-run defenses

- Rarely if ever asked to pass block

- Unknown ability as a receiver

- Production could be a result Auburn's unique offense, and dominant offensive linemen (Greg Robinson)

- Ball security could be an issue. Auburn had problems with fumbles through the first half of the season.

 

First point is your very complaint about CJ.  2nd two points are precisely what I've been saying. 

 

Jets are interested in CJ for 3 reasons.  Only 1 of those reasons is because of his past prowess as a runner.  The other 2 are concerns for Mason; no experience as a receiver, and no experience as a blocker.

[Matt39]

Re: Tre Mason, this is obviously only one author's opinion, but it's the first one I clicked on:

 

http://www.bigblueview.com/2014-nfl-draft-mock-order-prospects-picks-new-york-giants/2014/2/23/5393468/2014-nfl-draft-prospect-profile-tre-mason-rb-auburn-new-york-giants

 

Cons

- One speed runner who lacks that high gear to out-run defenses

- Rarely if ever asked to pass block

- Unknown ability as a receiver

- Production could be a result Auburn's unique offense, and dominant offensive linemen (Greg Robinson)

- Ball security could be an issue. Auburn had problems with fumbles through the first half of the season.

 

First point is your very complaint about CJ.  2nd two points are precisely what I've been saying. 

 

Jets are interested in CJ for 3 reasons.  Only 1 of those reasons is because of his past prowess as a runner.  The other 2 are concerns for Mason; no experience as a receiver, and no experience as a blocker.

 

You're overrating that facet of being a back imo. Best case scenario for the Jets next season is they find a couple of mauling guards who can start right away and have a stable of backs that allow our defense to do it's job. The Jets have already alluded to this strategy...feed those guys, keep Geno in 3rd and manageable...the passing game is getting scaled back next season most likely. Not drafting Mason because he didn't have to pass block would be silly. Plus I think Johnson stinks at this point anyways. jmo

[SenorGato]

I agree he'd be a good signing, if this team was remotely close to contending for the Super Bowl. They aren't and I don't see him going anywhere without either a decent pay day or a chance at a championship.

 

I don't get why this matters or how true this is. Part of why you perceive this about the team is because they lack talent like Johnson or better on the roster.

[CrazyCarl40]

I don't get why this matters or how true this is. Part of why you perceive this about the team is because they lack talent like Johnson or better on the roster.

No. The reason I perceive this starts and ends with QB play.