Jetsfan80 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 No, these numbers aren't a perfect metric. And no, no one is going to try to argue Ryan Fitzpatrick is a better QB than Aaron Rodgers (as the numbers indicate he is this season). But as smarter people than I will tell you, these are strong indicators of how well individual players/units would do when removing as many variables (opponent, talent around you, etc.) as possible. NOTE: DVOA = Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. I.E. overall value per play. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick: 11th in DVOA Ahead of: Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Alex Smith, Matt Ryan, Eli Manning, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota WR Eric Decker: 15th in DVOA Brandon Marshall: 25th in DVOA Ahead of/near: Calvin Johnson (16th), Allen Robinson (17th), Odell Beckham (24th), Julio Jones (38th), DeAndre Hopkins (39th), Brandin Cooks (27th), Jeremy Maclin (30th), Mike Evans (44th), Amari Cooper (48th) O-Line Pass protection: 3rd in Adjusted Sack Rate Run Blocking: 27th in Adjusted Line Yards RB NOTE: FO wasn't too high on Ivory either, who was below replacement level and 40th in DVOA. Further proof the passing game has driven our success for much of the season for the first time since....the Ken O'Brien, Walker, and Toon-led offense? D-Line Pass Rush: 20th in Adjusted Sack Rate Run Stuffing: 3rd in Adjusted Line Yards NOTE: These Efficiency rankings (below) factor in our schedule strength (30th per their metrics) Team Efficiency - Offense Passing: 9th in DVOA Rushing: 21st in DVOA Overall Offense: 12th in DVOA (14th in Weighted DVOA) Team Efficiency - Defense/Special Teams Pass Defense: 10th in DVOA Run Defense: 1st in DVOA Overall Defense: 5th in DVOA (7th in Weighted DVOA) Special Teams: 23rd in DVOA Team Efficiency Overall: 9th in Weighted DVOA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
32EBoozer Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 #It'sScienceDummy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 One additional note: Marshall improved from 40th to 25th in DVOA within about a 4-5 week period. Meaning @dbatesman continues to be wrong about him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 One additional note: Marshall improved from 40th to 25th in DVOA within about a 4-5 week period. Meaning @dbatesman continues to be wrong about him. A big game against the Bills and he might be able to surpass Seth Roberts and even Marquess Wilson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvill 51 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 A big game against the Bills and he might be able to surpass Seth Roberts and even Marquess Wilson. Don't understand your reliance on these numbers. Are there 23 WRs better than Odell Beckham? 37 receivers better than both Deandre Hopkins and Julio Jones? Those guys are all top 5 at the position, the idea that theres that many people more valuable than them on a per play basis is crazy. You'd really take Seth Roberts or Marquess Wilson over Brandon Marshall? I guess I'm just struggling to understand why you aren't a fan of Marshall; are you basing it on DVOA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Don't understand your reliance on these numbers. Are there 23 WRs better than Odell Beckham? 37 receivers better than both Deandre Hopkins and Julio Jones? Like the sun rising in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pac Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Don't understand your reliance on these numbers. Are there 23 WRs better than Odell Beckham? 37 receivers better than both Deandre Hopkins and Julio Jones? Those guys are all top 5 at the position, the idea that theres that many people more valuable than them on a per play basis is crazy. You'd really take Seth Roberts or Marquess Wilson over Brandon Marshall? I guess I'm just struggling to understand why you aren't a fan of Marshall; are you basing it on DVOA? Do what I do.. ignore them completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvill 51 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Like the sun rising in the east. Enlightening. The team/unit numbers seem a much better indicator than the individual ones, especially WR. I don't know how anyone can honestly say that there's 5 receivers in the league more valuable than beckham, let alone 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Enlightening. http://lmgtfy.com/?q=dvoa+explained Better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pac Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 http://lmgtfy.com/?q=dvoa+explained Better? yup, found it. http://nesn.com/2015/12/bill-belichick-doesnt-like-analytics-websites-says-theyre-not-real-accurate/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 A big game against the Bills and he might be able to surpass Seth Roberts and even Marquess Wilson. I'll be sure to bump when he does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Don't understand your reliance on these numbers. Are there 23 WRs better than Odell Beckham? 37 receivers better than both Deandre Hopkins and Julio Jones? Those guys are all top 5 at the position, the idea that theres that many people more valuable than them on a per play basis is crazy. You'd really take Seth Roberts or Marquess Wilson over Brandon Marshall? I guess I'm just struggling to understand why you aren't a fan of Marshall; are you basing it on DVOA? I know you weren't talking to me with this post....however....As I mentioned at the top of the thread, these numbers are merely saying that for this season, yes, Marshall has had more value to his team per play than Julio, Odell or Hopkins. There's a lot of reasons for this. And I don't claim to fully understand them all. What I do know is these guys at FO analyze every single play, and that essentially DVOA basically works to determine what an average (aka replacement level) player would do in the circumstances the player is under, and compare them to the player in question. They also decipher what it means for a play to be "successful". For instance, a 5 yard catch on 3rd & 4 is far more valuable than an 8-yard catch on 3rd & 15. Stuff like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvill 51 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 http://lmgtfy.com/?q=dvoa+explained Better? Yeah I get it. Still don't get why you've been using DVOA to bash Marshall. It's clearly weighted against players who receive a larger volume of targets or snaps (Tyler Lockett is number 2, Rishard Matthews is 3, etc.). DYAR seems like a much more accurate portrayal of value, though obviously not perfect, and Marshall ranks 10th in that category. So I might as well ask again, are you so negative on Marshall solely based on DVOA and if not what are the other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
32EBoozer Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Don't understand your reliance on these numbers. Are there 23 WRs better than Odell Beckham? 37 receivers better than both Deandre Hopkins and Julio Jones? Those guys are all top 5 at the position, the idea that theres that many people more valuable than them on a per play basis is crazy. You'd really take Seth Roberts or Marquess Wilson over Brandon Marshall? I guess I'm just struggling to understand why you aren't a fan of Marshall; are you basing it on DVOA? Someone who understands the very good footballs players aren't the one's who necessarily catch every pass.... they're the one's who make the clutch plays at crucial times in the game. #Marshall. Marshall makes so many difficult catches with 2 guys draped over him, catching the ball at it's peak and not allowing the ball to be knocked loose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted December 30, 2015 Author Share Posted December 30, 2015 Someone who understands the very good footballs players aren't the one's who necessarily catch every pass.... they're the one's who make the clutch plays at crucial times in the game. #Marshall. Marshall makes so many difficult catches with 2 guys draped over him, catching the ball at it's peak and not allowing the ball to be knocked loose. Yep. He also draws PI flags and, as you alluded to, helps Fitz avoid interceptions. If Fitz is in trouble he knows that when all else fails, he can toss up a jump ball to him. it's low risk, high reward when he does so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvill 51 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 I know you weren't talking to me with this post....however....As I mentioned at the top of the thread, these numbers are merely saying that for this season, yes, Marshall has had more value to his team per play than Julio, Odell or Hopkins. There's a lot of reasons for this. And I don't claim to fully understand them all. Just presenting the information. Understood, just seems to me that DVOA by itself isn't the best indicator at certain positions without adjusting for volume, roles, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 Yeah I get it. Still don't get why you've been using DVOA to bash Marshall. It's clearly weighted against players who receive a larger volume of targets (Tyler Lockett is number 2, Rishard Matthews is 3, etc.). DYAR seems like a much more accurate portrayal of value, though obviously not perfect, and Marshall ranks 10th in that category. So I might as well ask again, are you so negative on Marshall solely based on DVOA and if not what are the other factors. It's not weighted against anything. It's a measure of efficiency, so for most guys the overall number is going to get smaller as the denominator gets bigger. I'm negative on Marshall because he requires an enormous number of targets to generate his production, which drags down the efficiency of the entire offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 yup, found it. http://nesn.com/2015/12/bill-belichick-doesnt-like-analytics-websites-says-theyre-not-real-accurate/ The question was clearly about Pro Football Focus and Belichick said they use their own in-house analytics. Why don't you go play in the other room and let the adults talk, k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 A big game against the Bills and he might be able to surpass Seth Roberts and even Marquess Wilson. You're a ninja assassin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvill 51 Posted December 30, 2015 Share Posted December 30, 2015 It's not weighted against anything. It's a measure of efficiency, so for most guys the overall number is going to get smaller as the denominator gets bigger. I'm negative on Marshall because he requires an enormous number of targets to generate his production, which drags down the efficiency of the entire offense. Perhaps weighted is the wrong term, more like non-adjusted for great disparities in volume. DYAR seems like a stat which does make that adjustment and he ranks top 10 in that. Regardless, I have a hard time believing that there's many receivers out there that, substituted for Marshall, would make this offense more efficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Klecko73isGod Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 A big game against the Bills and he might be able to surpass Seth Roberts and even Marquess Wilson. You're hangin' on too tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BurnleyJet Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Brandon Marshall is the #25th best receiver lol. GFA. And I thought the QBR was B.S.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbatesman Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Perhaps weighted is the wrong term, more like non-adjusted for great disparities in volume. DYAR seems like a stat which does make that adjustment and he ranks top 10 in that. Regardless, I have a hard time believing that there's many receivers out there that, substituted for Marshall, would make this offense more efficient. DYAR is fine. It's just that it's a counting stat, so naturally a guy like Marshall will rank higher there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 The question was clearly about Pro Football Focus and Belichick said they use their own in-house analytics. Why don't you go play in the other room and let the adults talk, k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larz Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 so the jets football gooder this year ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I'm not quite understanding what the argument is here. Being 10th in DYAR and 25th in DVOA is pretty ******* good. What the hell is the problem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T0mShane Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 I got an 18 in trigonometry, out of 100. That was my final grade. Had to go to Summer School my senior year because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sirlancemehlot Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Metrics are for baseball. Maybe basketball. They are worthless in football. Way too many variables Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pac Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Metrics are for baseball. Maybe basketball. They are worthless in football. Way too many variables Dude adults are talking.. we better stay out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Do what I do.. ignore them completely. yup, found it. http://nesn.com/2015/12/bill-belichick-doesnt-like-analytics-websites-says-theyre-not-real-accurate/ Dude adults are talking.. we better stay out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 I'm not quite understanding what the argument is here. Being 10th in DYAR and 25th in DVOA is pretty ******* good. What the hell is the problem? dbatesman's opinion of Marshall is heavily influenced by years of exposure to Chicago sports radio. He also prefers to only view him as a person based on his awful past. Can't blame him too much, really, even if Marshall seems to have changed a lot for the better in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersJetFan Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 dbatesman's opinion of Marshall is heavily influenced by years of exposure to Chicago sports radio. If you had to deal with Northside bros you'd hate every player they ever rooted for too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 I got an 18 in trigonometry, out of 100. That was my final grade. Had to go to Summer School my senior year because of it. Boy you really went off on a tangent here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TuscanyTile2 Posted December 31, 2015 Share Posted December 31, 2015 Boy you really went off on a tangent here. Pun intended? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetsfan80 Posted December 31, 2015 Author Share Posted December 31, 2015 Pun intended? What's your angle here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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