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Excellent QB Article

KRL

By KRL
in NY Jets Forum

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KRL

KRL

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https://sports.vice.com/en_us/article/are-nfl-teams-being-smarter-about-the-free-agent-qb-market/?utm_source=vicesportstwitter

The internet has poured out a lot of unkind words for John Elway over the past week or so. He failed to re-sign Malik Jackson or Brock Osweiler. Not putting a second-round tender on C.J. Anderson forced the Broncos to match an offer sheet from Miami that resulted in a pay raise for the running back. He arrogantly pointed out the folly of Osweiler not wanting to be a Denver Bronco in one corner of his mouth while at the same time offering him a deal not much worsethan what Houston gave him.

 

 

Now, the Broncos did get burned a bit on the surface of things. Any time your own free agent spurns you in favor of a different team, it's going to sting a little bit—even if Osweiler is untested, unproven, and perhaps not the best long-term bet at the position. And especially if he's replaced with Mark Sanchez.

But what Elway has done in Denver is help draw a clear line at the quarterback position. If the Broncos can't do better than Brock Osweiler, why should they flush money down the toilet on someone who is simply a placeholder?

Read More: Martellus Bennett Might Just Be the Aaron Hernandez Replacement the Patriots Need

That's been Ryan Fitzpatrick's and several other quarterbacks' dilemma this offseason. Fitzpatrick is by far the best quarterback available on the market. If you were to judge quarterbacks purely by statistics, he finished 14th in DVOA this year. He connected on 31 touchdowns. This is, on the statistical surface, the kind of quarterback that starts a bidding war on the open market.

Instead, Fitzpatrick has faced a harsh reality. The Jets have shown no interest in giving him a long-term deal that spells out that he's the clear franchise quarterback. The Broncos haven't shown any interest in that either. The Browns, 49ers, and Rams have barely been connected to him at all.

This is actually a pretty startling sign of intelligence by NFL teams. Per Cian Fahey's charting, Fitzpatrick isn't actually a good quarterback. He just happened to play in a system suited for his strengths, and he got to throw at Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker all the time. In the past, this sort of uptick in production would almost undoubtedly be met with widespread interest. Young quarterbacks with this kind of production in a small sample would, like Kevin Kolb and Matt Cassel, are auctioned off to the high bidder. And even old quarterbacks like Josh McCown with a sudden uptick in production get rewarded with big contracts.

are-nfl-teams-being-smarter-about-the-fr

When you can't figure out either why the Houston Texans would give you so much money. Photo by Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Now, this is not an argument that the Broncos secretly had a good offseason. They may have faded an extra year of an Osweiler contract that could potentially blow up in their face. But it's hard to be happy with what they wound up with. Denver won the Super Bowl because their defense hit a level of performance that is not rationally sustainable. Peyton Manning was awful last year, and they should be able to get a bounce of regression from the position. That doesn't put them in a better place going forward.

But I think it tells us a lot about the spread of information that a quarterback like Fitzpatrick could have the year that he had and be completely hung out to dry on the open market. The only buzz about him are just texts from his agent to a media guy begging other teams to be involved. At this point he'll be lucky to beat Chase Daniel's contract, and Daniel has thrown 68 passes over the last three years.

We've seen the exact sort of cold market standstill as Colin Kaepernick has been bartered with the Browns and Broncos. We've seen Robert Griffin III, coming off a year where he didn't play at all, basically ignored by teams.

And while the Osweiler contract shows us that teams are still willing to risk a real year of dead salary on players they believe in, I think we're looking at a much more efficient market. Teams are applying more outside rationale to their beliefs. Teams are doing their homework on character and the reasons that players have failed. They're looking for reasons to not believe in quarterbacks as much as reasons to believe in them.

And that's why a player like Fitzpatrick can be out there today. We're not only talking about taking simple regression principles and applying them to Fitzpatrick. We're talking about the entire scope of his success in New York. If teams can tell themselves a story that involves Fitzpatrick not being the driving force of his statistical success, why would they pay him like he was?

And so he sits on the market, waiting for his agent to come to terms with this fact. Fitzpatrick isn't a bad quarterback, and teams could certainly do worse. But they're not willing to pay him like he's a real answer when he almost certainly isn't.

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Bocajetfan

Bocajetfan

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Great article and is all about fiscal responsibility. It shows Fitz as a short term answer in the right system exactly what many of us have bin saying. The argument is at what monatery value. Mac has a figure in mind and will not over pay, I have confidence in that. We can argue what that figure is but I will trust Mac to decide what that figure is and that it will be in the teams best long term interest.

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CrazyCarl40

CrazyCarl40

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13 minutes ago, HighPitch said:

that oswieler dude, i wouldn't be surprised if he turns out to be one of the top 5 qbs in the nfl. that game i watched….forget which one but damn did he show skills under pressure.

 

might be money well spent

The Broncos went with a decrepit Peyton Manning and then let this guy walk, even after grooming him for years. But yeah, he'll probably be real great. 

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Kleckineau

Kleckineau

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I was surprised they let Osweiler go but hey Elway is a top GM. His record speaks volumes.

I wont rush to judge this decision.

Lets hope Macc can be as successful.

Time will tell and it wont be too long before its known if Denver blew it.

 

* maybe he can actually teach Sanchez how to play QB

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Tinstar

Tinstar

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The Broncos did not let Osweiler  do anything . That guy made a decision not be the guy who followed Peyton Manning as the starting QB of a Super Bowl winning team . He was in a can't win situation and he took himself out of it .  With the money as close as it was, and more in Houston, I look at it as a rather smart move .

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LIJetsFan

LIJetsFan

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I like almost everything that Mac has done since we hired him.  Last year Cro was a mistake and Revis was def overpaid.  This year it's tagging Mo.  Overall Mac's been ok.  Like how he's handling the QB situation.  How the f are we in such a cap bind though? It's puzzling.

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Anthony Jet

Anthony Jet

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5 minutes ago, LIJetsFan said:

I like almost everything that Mac has done since we hired him.  Last year Cro was a mistake and Revis was def overpaid.  This year it's tagging Mo.  Overall Mac's been ok.  Like how he's handling the QB situation.  How the f are we in such a cap bind though? It's puzzling.

Darrel revis 

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Villain The Foe

Villain The Foe

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1 hour ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

The Broncos went with a decrepit Peyton Manning and then let this guy walk, even after grooming him for years. But yeah, he'll probably be real great. 

 

30 minutes ago, Kleckineau said:

I was surprised they let Osweiler go but hey Elway is a top GM. His record speaks volumes.

I wont rush to judge this decision.

Lets hope Macc can be as successful.

Time will tell and it wont be too long before its known if Denver blew it.

 

* maybe he can actually teach Sanchez how to play QB

The Broncos didnt let that guy walk, Osweiler left. On purpose at that. 

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Joe Jets fan

Joe Jets fan

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22 minutes ago, LIJetsFan said:

I like almost everything that Mac has done since we hired him.  Last year Cro was a mistake and Revis was def overpaid.  This year it's tagging Mo.  Overall Mac's been ok.  Like how he's handling the QB situation.  How the f are we in such a cap bind though? It's puzzling.

Simple.  Idzik left it so Mac had to spend so much cap last year the cap was going to be tight this year.   I like that it's only this year.   

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Villain The Foe

Villain The Foe

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1 hour ago, KRL said:

 

This is actually a pretty startling sign of intelligence by NFL teams. Per Cian Fahey's charting, Fitzpatrick isn't actually a good quarterback. He just happened to play in a system suited for his strengths, and he got to throw at Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker all the time.

I agree with this. Fitz isnt a bad QB, but he really isnt good either. If you have a really good team along with Chan Gailey as the OC then you can win with Fitzpatrick, however, you wont be winning games because of Fitzpatrick. At his age he's very good #2 QB in this league. He's proven that he wan win you games, but he hasnt proven that he can win enough to ever make the playoffs. Nothing wrong with that at this stage of his career. But I wouldnt be too interested in Fitz as a starter that I feel is beyond his prime years and limited as a deep passer paying 7-10 million dollars on a multi year contract to with the purpose of trying to make it to the playoffs and ultimately the superbowl. I think its safe to say that he will most likely decline in years along with the fact that he isnt known to stay healthy. In 10 seasons Fitz has only played 16 games 3 times. Thats less than a 3rd of his career, and it would have been just 2 seasons if the UCL that he tore in his hand was on his throwing hand. Thats just hard to rely on. 

 

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Villain The Foe

Villain The Foe

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17 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

They could have franchised him. They didn't. On purpose at that. 

You mean Franchise Osweiler over your SB MVP Von Miller? On purpose at that? 

Here's how the Texans stole Brock Osweiler from the Broncos

By Will Brinson | NFL Writer
 

The biggest surprise of free agency -- by far -- was the singing of Brock Osweiler by theTexans. Houston swooped in to steal Osweiler from the Broncos on a four-year, $72 million deal, pinning their hopes of taking a big step next year on a quarterback with seven career starts.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Denver was clearly miffed, but maybe Osweiler's move was about more than money. He clearly felt wanted in Houston.

The interest was reciprocal. On Sunday John McClain of the Houston Chronicle penned a fantastic look at the behind-the-scenes moves needed to bring Osweiler to Houston, and it largely revolves around the Texans' brass loving the lanky quarterback.

Immediately after the season, according to McClain, Bill O'Brien immersed himself in film of Texans players and potential free agents. He came away believing Osweiler was "the right guy."

"We study all these guys," O'Brien said. "We watch their [regular-season] tape [and] their preseason tape. When you threw the tape on from [last season]. it was impressive. He played in some very tough games, some very meaningful games.

"It's not easy to be a starting quarterback in this league. It's one of the most difficult things in sports to do. I think we got the right guy."

No one with the Texans actually believed he would hit the market, however. John Elway drafted Osweiler and he was going to sign him -- Osweiler staying in Denver was a fait accompli. The tape GM Rick Smith watched before free agency only reinforced O'Brien's beliefs about Osweiler.

The Broncos decided to play chicken with Osweiler's agent Jimmy Sexton, who started talking with Smith and the Texans.

After hearing about the Texans' interest, McClain reports Sexton went back to Denver for more money (they initially offered three years, $45 million):

On Wednesday morning, Sexton spoke with the Broncos for the first time since they made their $39 million offer. They increased their offer to an average of $16.5 million a year, including $30 million guaranteed.

The biggest key to this all? Sexton having Osweiler "go dark" during negotiations.

Sexton had told Osweiler to go dark and not return calls, texts or e-mails from the Broncos, including his teammates, until the agent had reached an agreement with one of the teams. Sexton didn't want sentiment to play a role if he could avoid it.

There were reports after the initial signing about Osweiler not returning phone calls. Tough move for him to stiff-arm his friends, but it makes sense not allowing other people to influence his decision.

When it came down to money, the Texans simply offered more. Which is how owner Bob McNair understood things would operate if he wanted to steal someone else's quarterback.

"We had a fair idea as to what the cost would be," McNair said. "But, as with anything, if there's more than one person that wants it, it's probably going to cost you more."

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T0mShane

T0mShane

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26 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

I disagree, the guy who spends most of his time desperately arguing that Geno Smith and Ryan Tannehill are actually good is a Smart Football Man

Million dollar idea: an app that creates new and useless metrics.

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TuscanyTile2

TuscanyTile2

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2 hours ago, HighPitch said:

that oswieler dude, i wouldn't be surprised if he turns out to be one of the top 5 qbs in the nfl. that game i watched….forget which one but damn did he show skills under pressure.

 

might be money well spent

I'm usually wrong about QBs but I have my doubts about Osweiler.  I'm glad it wasn't the Jets who gave him that contract.

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Matt39

Matt39

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41 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

I disagree, the guy who spends most of his time desperately arguing that Geno Smith and Ryan Tannehill are actually good is a Smart Football Man

I dont get how FO lets him write a column considering all of his work seems to completely contradict how they compile their data.

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CrazyCarl40

CrazyCarl40

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1 hour ago, Joe Jets fan said:

Lol.  Teams only get one tag. 

Right. And supposed Franchise QBs are more important than edge rushers. If Osweiler was as good a QB as people think he is, he would have been tagged. He wasn't. And let's not pretend the Texans are great at QB evaluation. 

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KRL

KRL

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Another factor that hurts Fitzpatrick in this contract situation is
it happened once before.  Getting a $60 million dollar deal from BUF
five years ago and then failing doesn't help him now:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7160727/ryan-fitzpatrick-buffalo-bills-agrees-new-contract

If he couldn't maintain a high level of performance when he was 28 years 
old why should anyone believe he'll do it at 33-34?

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Matt39

Matt39

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2 minutes ago, KRL said:

Another factor that hurts Fitzpatrick in this contract situation is
it happened once before.  Getting a $60 million dollar deal from BUF
five years ago and then failing doesn't help him now:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/7160727/ryan-fitzpatrick-buffalo-bills-agrees-new-contract

If he couldn't maintain a high level of performance when he was 28 years 
old why should anyone believe he'll do it at 33-34?

I dont think Fitzpatrick ever really fell apart. Buffalo just way overpaid. He's been consistently average as a starter.

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