Was Geno the Jets Plan All Along?

[ylekram]

50 minutes ago, joewilly12 said:

Beats the hell out of saying Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good QB

like I said. when all else fails. and just so your sure, all else has failed

[kelticwizard]

The Jets have given Fitzpatrick the best offer by far that he has received.

Take it or get lost, Fitz.

[Big Blocker]

2 hours ago, kelticwizard said:

You might think you're good at ignoring stats,  but you're not really.  The year that you brag about in Houston, Fitz's  tenth year in the league, he averaged 207 yards passing a game with one of the league's premier pass catchers in the lineup.  And he got benched for Ryan Mallet.  And you point to this mish-mash of a year to try to  shut down criticism that Fitz is mediocre, when this was his high point?

Well at least you do not dispute you cherry picked stats.

A word about Mallett and the Texans.  Bill O'Brien was on the CS with the Pats when Mallett was on the team in 11.  O'Brien sought for and obtained Mallett from the Pats going into O'Brien's first season as HC at Houston.  He wanted to see what he had in Mallett, who actually played well in his first game, and then got hurt.  What happened to Mallett after 14 is irrelevant.

Passing ypg is a cherry picked stat and you know it.  Let's look at Houston in 2014:

Take game two against Oakland.  Fitzpatrick threw for only 139 yards.  Not impressive.  But... he was 14 for 19 for a 7.3 ypa.  Not bad.  Why so little passing?  How about because Houston was ahead 27-0 at the end of the third quarter?  Final score was 30-14.  Not a day for Houston to put the ball in the air.

Add  in the last game where Fitz only threw the ball six times and you can see how games like that brought down is season long ypg numbers.

Either you knew that you cherry picked that ypg stat, or you should have.  In which case shame on you.

[kelticwizard]

So you just picked two games out of 12 and decided to represent that as the whole season?  The things you mention even out for every QB during the season.  Fact is that Fitz had Andre Johnson on the team and the team still didn't get that much out of the passing game.  Fitz' year in 2014 was a case study of a mediocre QB trying to hold onto his starting status by his fingernails.  And you point to that year as a "good year"?   I don't.

[Jet Nut]

4 hours ago, Big Blocker said:

You may think you are good at cherry picking, but you're not really.  By any objective measure Fitz performed well in 14.  And the background to the Ryan Mallett story helps explain that part. RF had a qb rating over 95 that year.  Geno Smith can only imagine a season rating near that.

There you go turning you opinion into fact.  Again

[NYs Stepchild]

1 hour ago, Big Blocker said:

To be clear I still count myself as more of a Macc fan than not, and IF Fitzpatrick comes back I will be closer to I was before this off season began.

But... it's not just the Fitzpatrick impasse that is a concern.  Some think Wilkerson is the best player on the Jets right now.  To have the situation we are in now and how it has played out over the last two off seasons is not necessarily Macc's fault.  But no one can say it is to his credit, either.

You were saying? 

[JetBlue]

7 hours ago, LIJetsFan said:

You said: "I think the discussion here suffers when posters post opinions as if they are facts."    

This is the internet and much/most/almost all of what is posted here is opinion.  You seem to understand this but you don't seem to be giving others credit for understanding this.

Even if someone provides a link to a source, the chances are that that source is stating opinion.  Even stats and direct audio quotes are open to interpretation.  Anyone who thinks that fact abound is naive.           

Glad someone else gets it. 

[Sperm Edwards]

On July 14, 2016 at 2:46 PM, bitonti said:

Petty was sort of a throw away pick but Hack in rd 2 wasn't. You don't take a position in rd 2 if its not a problem. 

The Patriots took a QB in round 2 in 2014. Obviously Tom Brady was a problem.  

[kelticwizard]

Well, we signed Mo Wilkerson so any plans Fitz had that involved the Jets having lots of extra cash because they won't be able to sign Mo just went right out the window.  Not that the Jets were going to pay Fitz more anyway-they're already beating any other offers Fitz  might have had.

[fltflo]

I have to say during this entire debate I've learned something. I don't think there are that many true Geno fans but I'm shocked that he has fans who are so loyal. Some of them I think care more about him getting another chance to start than the team winning. There is no way a team is afraid to cut or release a player and worry that he can end up being good (if they gave him a good chance). You don't make a choice on who is your starting Qb based on that.  This happens to every team and you have to make decisions. Geno's fans will jump on any stat to "prove" he didn't get a fair shake and attempt to discredit the other Qb (Fitz). They will search out any bad stat on Fitz to make their case.  And there are in reality no good stats on Geno. Then there are the Fitz haters. I was shocked by them too because I assumed Jets fans liked what they saw in 2015 (a plus six) and thought the Qb did a very good job.  But most of them blame him alone for week 17. They were expecting to make the playoffs and we lost a game. Even though we'd won five in a row. They are unmerciful in their hatred and criticism.They don't want him back and if he does return they want him to suffer. As in get the worst contract possible. They are openly rooting for him to make less money and this is their idea of payback. And then there are the trolls who really don't give an s one way or the other. They just say outrageous things to keep the fire stoked. And suckers like me take the bait. And then there is the silent majority who doesn't pay any attention to this nonsense. I think that most of them like what they saw last season and hope the team starts the BAP. Salary is between the player and the FO but it should be able to be worked out with compromise on both sides. 

God help us when they start rolling out the Nixonisms"Silent majority".

I never met one Jets fan who didn't have a vocal opinion one way or the other. This is why Jets message boards tend to be the most active of all NFL team message boards in the off-season

[Rangers9]

9 minutes ago, fltflo said:

God help us when they start rolling out the Nixonisms"Silent majority".

I never met one Jets fan who didn't have a vocal opinion one way or the other. This is why Jets message boards tend to be the most active of all NFL team message boards in the off-season

Most normal people don't really care how much money Fitz makes. They just want to watch a good game. 

[CrazyCarl40]

53 minutes ago, kelticwizard said:

Well, we signed Mo Wilkerson so any plans Fitz had that involved the Jets having lots of extra cash because they won't be able to sign Mo just went right out the window.  Not that the Jets were going to pay Fitz more anyway-they're already beating any other offers Fitz  might have had.

The Jets reportedly saved over 5 million dollars in cap money this year with the Mo deal. That's easily accessible information. Maybe you haven't read it yet. Either way, the Jets just freed up more money for Fitz, and can free up even more with a few other moves easily. 

[Mike135]

34 minutes ago, Rangers9 said:

Most normal people don't really care how much money Fitz makes. They just want to watch a good game. 

I dunno man.  Guess it depends what you consider normal.  If you're talking about guy who can maybe name 10 players on the team and has a rough idea of the current record of the team at any point in time...  sure.  They probably don't really understand the cap and how it plays a huge role in how a team does.

A fan who follows the team enough to know most of the roster and knows the records of just about every team in the league (what I'd call a decent fan) at any point in time...  well that guy understands wasting money can ruin a team for years to come.

[Mike135]

32 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

The Jets reportedly saved over 5 million dollars in cap money this year with the Mo deal. That's easily accessible information. Maybe you haven't read it yet. Either way, the Jets just freed up more money for Fitz, and can free up even more with a few other moves easily. 

Carl, do you know much about team management of the cap?  Or does anyone?

I'm wondering if the Jets will need to have like 5mil free come Sept.  For emergency in-season needs.  Or do most teams not worry about that.

[fltflo]

Most normal people don't really care how much money Fitz makes. They just want to watch a good game. 

[/quote

Come on now Ranger let's be fair here. Even the fans who want Fitz back as as the starter i'm not willing to overpay him.

[CrazyCarl40]

13 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

Carl, do you know much about team management of the cap?  Or does anyone?

I'm wondering if the Jets will need to have like 5mil free come Sept.  For emergency in-season needs.  Or do most teams not worry about that.

They typically keep some money free in case of a trade or having to sign a guy off the street, but nothing you'd need 5 million dollars for. Players making that much money don't typically get moved during the season. 

[Mike135]

3 minutes ago, CrazyCarl40 said:

They typically keep some money free in case of a trade or having to sign a guy off the street, but nothing you'd need 5 million dollars for. Players making that much money don't typically get moved during the season. 

Gotcha.  So maybe 2mil.  Just trying to figure how much more they'd need to free up if they do want to sign Fitz

If 8mil is free now. Figure 4mil for emergency fund and signing Lee.  Leaves 4mil for Fitz.  If Fitz will sign for 8, guess it's not that hard to come up with the room.

Of course I'm against it, but the Mo deal does make it very possible.

[Rangers9]

Sure maybe Fitz would sign for 8 mil but with incentives. You know like say if he throws the ball backwards and the ball bounces off the ref's head and hits 3 receivers in the hands the ball is caught by the left guard who kicks it off the goal post and then the ball comes back to Fitz who hands it off to Forte for the winning score but it has to be at exactly 3:37 pm EST then he gets another million. Now Mike is that fair enough for you or still too easy.?

 

[paulyjet]

Geno doesn't have it.... I can't believe you Geno guys... he has not shown 1 thing. No poise in the pocket. No anticipating his receivers... no ability to read a defence. Did anyone see any of those things??? Nope. He suck. 

[Jet Nut]

2 hours ago, Rangers9 said:

Most normal people don't really care how much money Fitz makes. They just want to watch a good game. 

Except you, who's called the Jrts cheap and their insulting.  That Fitz should and would retire. 

But others care too much form not wanting the jets to up their offer.  So Fitz doesn't feel like an indentured servant 

[Mike135]

40 minutes ago, Rangers9 said:

Sure maybe Fitz would sign for 8 mil but with incentives. You know like say if he throws the ball backwards and the ball bounces off the ref's head and hits 3 receivers in the hands the ball is caught by the left guard who kicks it off the goal post and then the ball comes back to Fitz who hands it off to Forte for the winning score but it has to be at exactly 3:37 pm EST then he gets another million. Now Mike is that fair enough for you or still too easy.?

 

Lol definitely fair.  Because 8mil is only like 5 times more than what Geno makes.  So while Fitz will have that advantage in camp... eventually Bowles will realize for the good of the team, he has to start Geno.

Wasting 8mil is a lot easier than wasting 12mil.  So Fitz can put in all the incentives he wants.  I've said that since January.  Fitz could have a clause that says he gets 25mil a year fully guaranteed for 8 years if he makes the playoffs for all I care.  It's not like there's any realistic shot of it happening.  (Though Brady's suspension does make it somewhat more likely.)

[ljr]

2 hours ago, Mike135 said:

Carl, do you know much about team management of the cap?  Or does anyone?

I'm wondering if the Jets will need to have like 5mil free come Sept.  For emergency in-season needs.  Or do most teams not worry about that.

I'd say a starting QB is more important than emergency in-season free cap money ... Maybe it's just me

[Mike135]

Just now, ljr said:

I'd say a starting QB is more important than emergency in-season free cap money ... Maybe it's just me

Agreed.  But a backup QB for 8mil is another story.

[ljr]

35 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

 I've said that since January.  Fitz could have a clause that says he gets 25mil a year fully guaranteed for 8 years if he makes the playoffs for all I care.  It's not like there's any realistic shot of it happening.  (Though Brady's suspension does make it somewhat more likely.)

 

Hahahhaa ... You are too funny brother! So you are actually coming up with excuses in case the jets win the division ?!?!?

 

you aren't thinking wildcard ??? You're actually concerned that we take down the Pats for the division ???

 

you are awesome bro!

[Mike135]

1 minute ago, ljr said:

 

Hahahhaa ... You are too funny brother! So you are actually coming up with excuses in case the jets win the division ?!?!?

 

you aren't thinking wildcard ??? You're actually concerned that we take down the Pats for the division ???

 

you are awesome bro!

Yeah actually I don't really see a wildcard coming out of the East this season.  We all have some tough schedules.  Of course anything can happen.  Just figuring odds aren't in the East's favor for a wildcard.

[ljr]

13 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

Yeah actually I don't really see a wildcard coming out of the East this season.  We all have some tough schedules.  Of course anything can happen.  Just figuring odds aren't in the East's favor for a wildcard.

So you believe the odds of us beating NE is more likely than the odds of us winning a Wildcard spot ... ... Very interesting!

what would you wager NE's record is without Brady the 1st month?

 

@ Az

Miami home

Houston home

Buffalo home

 

i'd wager 2-2 very reasonable with 1-3 more likely than 3-1.

 

Then Brady returns

@ Cle

Cinci home

@ Pitt

@ Buff

again .. Same as results as 1st month despite Brady being back.

 

then after the bye

Seattle home

@ SF

@ Jets

@ Rams

Most likely case for Jets say us home & Sea on the road split ... Then SF & Rams ... Despite being road games should both be NE wins ... So 3-1

 

final month 

Balt home

@ Denv

 Jets home

@ Miami 

nE slitting the 1st 2 &'winning the final 2 is probable.

so best case scenario ... Even w/o Brady the 1st month most likely scenario is Pats 10-6 or better.

NE has consistently had a better head to head & division record than the NYJ under Brady ... So my guess is best case scenario the Jets need to go 11-5 to take the division ... Tall order with a harder schedule.

i'd wager a 9-7 wildcard spot would be more likely ... JMO

[Mike135]

31 minutes ago, ljr said:

So you believe the odds of us beating NE is more likely than the odds of us winning a Wildcard spot ... ... Very interesting!

what would you wager NE's record is without Brady the 1st month?

 

@ Az

Miami home

Houston home

Buffalo home

 

i'd wager 2-2 very reasonable with 1-3 more likely than 3-1.

 

Then Brady returns

@ Cle

Cinci home

@ Pitt

@ Buff

again .. Same as results as 1st month despite Brady being back.

 

then after the bye

Seattle home

@ SF

@ Jets

@ Rams

Most likely case for Jets say us home & Sea on the road split ... Then SF & Rams ... Despite being road games should both be NE wins ... So 3-1

 

final month 

Balt home

@ Denv

 Jets home

@ Miami 

nE slitting the 1st 2 &'winning the final 2 is probable.

so best case scenario ... Even w/o Brady the 1st month most likely scenario is Pats 10-6 or better.

NE has consistently had a better head to head & division record than the NYJ under Brady ... So my guess is best case scenario the Jets need to go 11-5 to take the division ... Tall order with a harder schedule.

i'd wager a 9-7 wildcard spot would be more likely ... JMO

First four games, similar to your prediction.

Probability:

• 4-0 5%
• 3-1 10%
• 2-2 35%
• 1-3 40%
• 0-4 10%

Beyond the first four, I'd say your predictions are pretty on point.  Except for the fact that the Pats are somewhat injury prone.  There's a real good chance Edelman and/or Gronk go down for a few weeks.  More probable that not actually.  So that'd equate to another loss somewhere in there.

Now can we take advantage of it?  Based on Fitz's record vs good teams... nope.  Just the facts.  Don't shoot the messenger.

We're gonna have to gamble here.  It's like racing a 6cyl Mustang.  You have two options:

1. A new 4cyl Honda Accord (Fitz).  You know you'll finish the race, but no shot of winning.
2. An '87 Buick Grand National (Geno).  No clue if it'll start or even finish the race.  But if you can get it running, it'll blow the doors off the Mustang.

Me?  I'm choosing the Buick.  I'd rather go down fighting instead of losing respectably.

Again I don't really see a wildcard coming from the East given how difficult our schedules are.   But never know.  It's a long season.

[ljr]

19 minutes ago, Mike135 said:

First four games, similar to your prediction.

Probability:

• 4-0 5%
• 3-1 10%
• 2-2 35%
• 1-3 40%
• 0-4 10%

Beyond the first four, I'd say your predictions are pretty on point.  Except for the fact that the Pats are somewhat injury prone.  There's a real good chance Edelman and/or Gronk go down for a few weeks.  More probable that not actually.  So that'd equate to another loss somewhere in there.

Now can we take advantage of it?  Based on Fitz's record vs good teams... nope.  Just the facts.  Don't shoot the messenger.

We're gonna have to gamble here.  It's like racing a 6cyl Mustang.  You have two options:

1. A new 4cyl Honda Accord (Fitz).  You know you'll finish the race, but no shot of winning.
2. An '87 Buick Grand National (Geno).  No clue if it'll start or even finish the race.  But if you can get it running, it'll blow the doors off the Mustang.

Me?  I'm choosing the Buick.  I'd rather go down fighting instead of losing respectably.

Again I don't really see a wildcard coming from the East given how difficult our schedules are.   But never know.  It's a long season.

Lol ... You're funny calling Fitz the new car & Geno the old 1987 car !

[Mike135]

3 minutes ago, ljr said:

Lol ... You're funny calling Fitz the new car & Geno the old 1987 car !

Ha, yeah I noticed that but that was the best analogy I could come up with.  Whatever, it works.  If it helps, make the Accord white and Buick black.  I've only seen black Grand Nationals anyway.

[Keyshawn 19]

15 hours ago, Villain The Foe said:

Well, Geno will have the same situation with the same targets as Fitz had. So we'll see how many he can throw this year. No one cares about how many TD's Geno threw in his first two seasons under a sh*tty regime and poor targets as a rookie and 2nd year player. 

If you compare Geno's first 30 games to Fitz first 30 games the stats are mightily similar. The difference is that one has 2 seasons of play time vs another with 10. 

 

Inaccurately comparing the two will only fool a person who cant dissect the deceit within the comparison or are either just Fitz supporters or Geno haters. Its kinda like when I see people say "Fitz ran this offense much better than Geno did" yet those same people can never show me a season in which Geno ran this offense with these targets....because it never happened. 

 

Welcome to Jetnation! 

 

I hope you're right but the Jets don't get that lucky.

[drdetroit]

11 hours ago, Mike135 said:

Yeah actually I don't really see a wildcard coming out of the East this season.  We all have some tough schedules.  Of course anything can happen.  Just figuring odds aren't in the East's favor for a wildcard.

Wildcard? We're winning the division 

[joewilly12]

1 minute ago, drdetroit said:

Wildcard? We're winning the division 

Yesireee sleeper team in the AFC your 2016 NY Jets

[bitonti]

17 hours ago, Sperm Edwards said:

The Patriots took a QB in round 2 in 2014. Obviously Tom Brady was a problem.  

He's not getting younger.