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Goff and Hackenberg: Crappy evaluation or Sneaky method?

UnitedWhofans

By UnitedWhofans
in NY Jets Forum

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dbatesman

dbatesman

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3 hours ago, UnitedWhofans said:

So it was reported that Maccagnan's top scouted picks at QB were Jared Goff and Christian Hackenberg. Rams took Goff with the #1 pick and he has yet to play. Jets took Hackenberg in the 2nd round and he has yet to play.

The Rams look like they made the worst pick, but in terms of Macc's evaluation, neither of these QBs are ready to contribute immediately, while guys like Prescott (whom no one expected) Wentz and Lynch (both meh grades form Macc) have played.

This could easily suggest that he is crappy at evaluating QBs but there is another possibility. Macc knows that if Fitzpatrick didn't play well, fans would be screaming for the rookie to start (Hell they already want Petty to start.) And if they drafted a QB who was more ready to play, the temptation would be there and the possibility of failure is there.

Because let's face it, Prescott has the best OL in the NFL, the NFL's leading rusher,  and good weapons to throw to. Lynch has a Super Bowl caliber team. And Wentz has a surprisingly good Philly defense.

With this Jets team, a heap of pressure would be on the young man to start immediately and win. Therefore, it is possible that Maccagnan was intentionally looking for project QBs in order to keep the fans and media from pushing them to start immediately.

Now this doesn't mean there isnt fault here. I think he drafted Hackenberg too early and for what reason I don't know. In fact if they flipped the Jenkins pick and the Hackenberg pick rounds, I think less people would be angry.

So it is an interesting contemplation to make

Even for JetNation, this is an all-timer. My goodness.

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UnitedWhofans

UnitedWhofans

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15 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Even for JetNation, this is an all-timer. My goodness.

You want to answer with facts or quips? I dont just post random articles. I look at what they are actually saying. In fact, it says in the article that Connor Cook and Christian Hackenberg are close in comparison.

I mean honestly, I have seen more illogical things on here than this.

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bostonmajet

bostonmajet

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I think (and hope) Mac doesn't draft on what pressure he thinks he is going to get from fans to play a guy. I also don't think a choice is either good/bad/sneaky because the QB plays in his rookie year.

I think Mac made it clear that he thinks Hack has a chance of being the future (or he wouldn't have drafted him in the 2nd) but they he wasn't ready to play this year. I think Mac thought the team had a SHOT to compete this year and he was not a believer in Geno and wasn't going to bank the year on Petty being ready (let alone Hack). I don't think there is much more than that.

Apparently he tried to trade up to get a QB but it was too expensive, he also tried to trade up to get OL but it didn't work. It looks like he approaches the draft with a fluid aspect (which is good). Did he 'reach' a little for Hack, probably. Is Hack a bust - who the hell knows until we see what he does next and the year after nobody really knows. I know that Dak playing well in Dallas and the #2 pick playing well in Philly doesn't determine how good Hack will be. We couldn't pick #2; how well Dak would do with our OL and team with our schedule who knows (probably not as well). Maybe Dak is more NFL ready, but has a lower ceiling (but with a higher floor); Hack has a lower floor, but probably a higher ceiling.

As long as the Jets are trying to build for the future I am okay for now.

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Jetsfan80

Jetsfan80

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34 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

also:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/qbase-2016

Jesus, that's depressing.  Especially since, right above the analysis of Prescott, they say this about Hackenberg:

 

Quote

 

No quarterback in QBASE's database (top-100 picks since 1996) has succeeded with remotely similar stats. The list of previous top-100 picks with completion rates under 55 percent in their last college seasons -- Brock Huard, Dave Ragone, Kyle Boller, Marques Tuiasosopo, and Quincy Carter -- augurs poorly for Hackenberg's NFL prospects.

 

 

Dave Ragone.  Holy f*ck.

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Jetsfan80

Jetsfan80

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24 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

QBASE does not predict Prescott to be a likely NFL success "

 

For a 4th round pick, that's not a huge surprise.  Nevertheless, if you look at the actual numbers, they gave him a 26.6 % chance of being an "adequate starter", which is usually the highest expectation you could have for a QB taken on Day 2.  Kirk Cousins is usually about the best you'll get, and even getting a capable backup in the 4th is fine.

Meanwhile, they only give Hackenberg a 13.6 % chance of being an "adequate starter".  That's barely higher than the chances they project Dak of being a "Upper Tier" QB (12.8 %). 

And we used a 2nd round pick on Hack. 

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UnitedWhofans

UnitedWhofans

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2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

For a 4th round pick, that's not a huge surprise.  Nevertheless, if you look at the actual numbers, they gave him a 26.6 % chance of being an "adequate starter", which is usually the highest expectation you could have for a QB taken on Day 2.  Kirk Cousins is usually about the best you'll get, and even getting a capable backup in the 4th is fine.

Meanwhile, they only give Hackenberg a 13.6 % chance of being an "adequate starter".  That's barely higher than the chances they project Dak of being a "Upper Tier" QB (12.8 %). 

And we used a 2nd round pick on Hack. 

I didn't question the opinion that they reached on the pick

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Jetsfan80

Jetsfan80

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Just now, UnitedWhofans said:

I didn't question the fact that they reached on the pick

Even worse, they missed out on a guy like Dak, who would have come cheaper and had a better chance at success.  That's why the pick was probably a poor one, though we can't fully rule out Hackenberg being a success just yet.

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UnitedWhofans

UnitedWhofans

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Just now, Jetsfan80 said:

Even worse, they missed out on a guy like Dak, who would have come cheaper and had a better chance at success.  That's why the pick was probably a poor one, though we can't fully rule out Hackenberg being a success just yet.

The problem is whether Dak is a good player or a byproduct of the team around him. 

If Dak Prescott was here, would we be as good as Dallas?

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Jetsfan80

Jetsfan80

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And certainly, you can question their methodology and recognize they've made mistakes.  But their model also predicted great numbers in Years 3-5 for the likes of Rivers, Palmer, McNabb, Peyton, Russell Wilson, Big Ben, Stafford, Rodgers, and Andrew Luck.  And not all of those guys were slam dunks when they came out of school.  Wilson was a 3rd rounder, Big Ben was a small school guy, and Rodgers fell to the back of the 1st round. 

Meanwhile, they successfully predicted that the following would bust:  Sanchez, Tuiasosopo, Chris Simms, Ramsey, Croyle, Mallett, J.P. Losman, Clausen, Redman, Ragone, Boller, Trent Edwards, Grossman, etc. 

Not bad.

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Jetsfan80

Jetsfan80

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3 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

The problem is whether Dak is a good player or a byproduct of the team around him. 

If Dak Prescott was here, would we be as good as Dallas?

 

What, are we devoid of talent on offense or something?  Dak has been having success with Cole Beasley as his # 1 WR of late for goodness sake. 

For a full season we had people here wondering if any old QB could have success with Chan Gailey, Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, etc, given that Fitzpatrick threw 31 TD's.  But now you're going to play the "our talent on offense sucks" card?  Come on.

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UnitedWhofans

UnitedWhofans

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1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And certainly, you can question their methodology and recognize they've made mistakes.  But their model also predicted great numbers in Years 3-5 for the likes of Rivers, Palmer, McNabb, Peyton, Russell Wilson, Big Ben, Stafford, Rodgers, and Andrew Luck.  And not all of those guys were slam dunks when they came out of school.  Wilson was a 3rd rounder, Big Ben was a small school guy, and Rodgers fell to the back of the 1st round. 

Meanwhile, they successfully predicted that the following would bust:  Sanchez, Tuiasosopo, Chris Simms, Ramsey, Croyle, Mallett, J.P. Losman, Clausen, Redman, Ragone, Boller, Trent Edwards, Grossman, etc. 

Not bad.

Then why am I hearing of this model for the first time?

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Jetsfan80

Jetsfan80

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3 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

Then why am I hearing of this model for the first time?

Because their domain name is FootballOUTSIDERS.com.  Advanced analytics take a long time for people to accept as being a useful tool for helping to make predictions, especially in an anti-geek sport like pro football.

And it shouldn't be the first time you've heard it.  FO has been referenced numerous times on JetNation for years now.

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Jetsfan80

Jetsfan80

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5 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

Yes. with the NFL's leading rusher and the best OL in football. 

That can easily go both ways.  Certainly the OL is awesome in Dallas, but part of the reason Elliott is having so much success is that Dak is a threat to run himself.  They're incorporating zone read a lot and defenses have to account for both. 

You can't explain away Dak's early success purely based on the offense he's playing in. 

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Beerfish

Beerfish

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2 hours ago, JoJoTownsell1 said:

The Jets drafted him as a project. They said this year would be a developmental year. But geniuses like yourself are still shocked  that Hack isn't ready to start yet. SOJF Logic. 

You don't draft that kind of project in the 2nd round.  Guys drafted rounds lower playing and producing and though that may be an exception, drafting a guy who is such a project he can't be #3 on your team is a problem.

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drdetroit

drdetroit

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5 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

You don't draft that kind of project in the 2nd round.  Guys drafted rounds lower playing and producing and though that may be an exception, drafting a guy who is such a project he can't be #3 on your team is a problem.

I wanted Cardale Jones.  That said its hilarious you guys actually trust Bowles' ability to assess the qb position

 

 

 

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joewilly12

joewilly12

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7 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

You don't draft that kind of project in the 2nd round.  Guys drafted rounds lower playing and producing and though that may be an exception, drafting a guy who is such a project he can't be #3 on your team is a problem.

Great post we draft a QB in the 2nd round and isn't ready to take snaps in the NFL another bad draft pick added to to the list here. 

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Beerfish

Beerfish

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Just now, drdetroit said:

I wanted Cardale Jones.  That said its hilarious you guys actually trust Bowles' ability to assess the qb position

 

 

 

I don't and by all reports his oc is running the show.

I do know that what I saw and heard from hackenburg in a few games his last two years, the way he threw at the combine and the way he played in ex games and camp.  He's a massive 'we hope lighting will strike' prospect and you simply do not fall in love with and over draft those kind of guys,  Let someone else over draft them.

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UnitedWhofans

UnitedWhofans

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8 minutes ago, Beerfish said:

You don't draft that kind of project in the 2nd round.  Guys drafted rounds lower playing and producing and though that may be an exception, drafting a guy who is such a project he can't be #3 on your team is a problem.

To be clear, you are not angry at actually drafting him, but where they drafted him. Because I will admit to that

But I will say, that teams draft projects in the 1st round. Goff, Manziel, Tebow.

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joewilly12

joewilly12

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Just now, UnitedWhofans said:

To be clear, you are not angry at actually drafting him, but where they drafted him. Because I will admit to that

But I will say, that teams draft projects in the 1st round. Goff, Manziel, Tebow.

ALL NFL starters ready to play unlike the QB's we draft.

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Beerfish

Beerfish

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14 minutes ago, UnitedWhofans said:

To be clear, you are not angry at actually drafting him, but where they drafted him. Because I will admit to that

But I will say, that teams draft projects in the 1st round. Goff, Manziel, Tebow.

Yes that is it exactly.  I would not have drafted him at all because I did not like what I saw from him, however if he was drafted 5,6,7 I'd shrug my shoulders and say, I don;t like it but fine take your shot at the guy you think is a steal.

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dbatesman

dbatesman

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1 hour ago, UnitedWhofans said:

Then why am I hearing of this model for the first time?

Because you're a big doofy blob of confirmation bias? QBASE, its predecessor, and the principles underlying them have been discussed and debated here fairly continuously since at least spring 2009.

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Villain The Foe

Villain The Foe

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5 hours ago, UnitedWhofans said:

So it was reported that Maccagnan's top scouted picks at QB were Jared Goff and Christian Hackenberg. Rams took Goff with the #1 pick and he has yet to play. Jets took Hackenberg in the 2nd round and he has yet to play.

The Rams look like they made the worst pick, but in terms of Macc's evaluation, neither of these QBs are ready to contribute immediately, while guys like Prescott (whom no one expected) Wentz and Lynch (both meh grades form Macc) have played.

This could easily suggest that he is crappy at evaluating QBs but there is another possibility. Macc knows that if Fitzpatrick didn't play well, fans would be screaming for the rookie to start (Hell they already want Petty to start.) And if they drafted a QB who was more ready to play, the temptation would be there and the possibility of failure is there.

Because let's face it, Prescott has the best OL in the NFL, the NFL's leading rusher,  and good weapons to throw to. Lynch has a Super Bowl caliber team. And Wentz has a surprisingly good Philly defense.

With this Jets team, a heap of pressure would be on the young man to start immediately and win. Therefore, it is possible that Maccagnan was intentionally looking for project QBs in order to keep the fans and media from pushing them to start immediately.

Now this doesn't mean there isnt fault here. I think he drafted Hackenberg too early and for what reason I don't know. In fact if they flipped the Jenkins pick and the Hackenberg pick rounds, I think less people would be angry.

So it is an interesting contemplation to make

What was Macc's grade on Wentz?

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Miss Lonelyhearts

Miss Lonelyhearts

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8 minutes ago, dbatesman said:

Because you're a big doofy blob of confirmation bias? QBASE, its predecessor, and the principles underlying them have been discussed and debated here fairly continuously since at least spring 2009.

It's been the whole time. The initial article on the Leinart/Cutler class definitely came up at the old spot. 2009 was the start of jumping up and down and screaming about it, for obvious reasons.

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