There is a disturbance in the force

[slats]

7 minutes ago, EM31 said:

First of all I generally find myself very much in agreement with most of what you have to say but I think you are a bit off on this one.  Perhaps there has been some hardening of positions because of the back and forth with Warfish.

Working backwards, $5.5 million dollars is truly peanuts in the current world for any player capable of starting NFL games at the QB position.  So not a lot to pay for whatever level of insurance that may become necessary. Not a lot to pay if your team has plenty of cap dollars as we do unless we are planning to lock up some of our own stars early (Williams?) but we never do that unfortunately.

The current problem with really knowing where we stand at QB and what "plans" the current organization may have is that we have one data point to go on at this time.  Parts of one preseason game and the first one at that.  Some will view it as proof positive that "pow" Sam is going straight to the moon and others that Teddy Bridgewater should be looked at as a viable long term solution as if the organization has not already committed the treasury to Sam Darnold once we drafted him.  Here are some scenarios under which a $5.5 million dollars for a non-joke QB would be prudent.

1) Perhaps Sam Darnold while he flashes plenty of positive signs is simply not ready t o play on Day-1.

2) While "worst to first" in one year never really happens in the NFL, worst to contender does happen fairly often.  I do not think this Jets team will show that kind of improvement but maybe it does.  Maybe Tom Brady finally shows his age and maybe the Bills and Dolphins are still bad.  Maybe the Jets defense is good enough to carry this team to a record that none of us are predicting.

3) Maybe the OLine is as bad as many of us fear it might be.  Maybe 3-deep at QB ends up being thin and we need a credible starter half way through game-1.

If any of the above are true then a 4th round pick is simply not enough in my mind to get back for a cheap, credible QB option who we have on the roster.  If the market is a 4th then keep him and use him however you feel is best for the organization.  I would not go less than a 2nd round pick which is not where the market is today.  The only things that change this equation IMO is if Teddy Bridgewater continues to show marketable skills and more importantly, if some other team becomes desperate.  The latter has not happened yet.

If on the other hand Sam is ready then we owe Teddy nothing.  He is a one year rental and he plays if we need him and he sits if we do not.  Pretty much a perfect situation.

  

I hear you, this is what I think...

I think the Jets are doing everything they can to get Darnold ready to be the Day One starter, and that so far Darnold has been very much up to the challenge. I expect him to start the rest of the preseason and, barring a collapse or injury, I expect him to start opening day. 

I don't have high hopes for this season. The team still has too many holes. There's a lot of depth at some spots, but not enough great players. If this team is going to exceed expectations and contend for a playoff spot, I think the only possible way that happens is if Darnold exceeds all expectations, plays lights out, and carries the team on his shoulders. I don't have a particularly high opinion of Bridgewater, who I see as more of a game manager, and I don't see him filling in and carrying this team to contention. I also don't have as low an opinion of McCown as many here. While I don't want him in the starting lineup, I think he's just fine in the backup role. And again, I think that's where the organization is at, too. Darnold just surpassed McCown for starting reps this week in practice, but Josh is still ahead of Teddy in that regard. Part of that, undoubtedly, is that Bridgewater has trade value and McCown doesn't, but -despite any depth chart released by the team- the pecking order now looks like Darnold/McCown/Bridgewater. 

So all that said, yeah, I still trade Teddy for a fourth-rounder. Of course, I'd like to get more but that would be my floor. He's not going to be on the team next year, and I don't see him as particularly valuable for one season as long as Darnold is the starting QB. He was a good signing as a hedge against whatever QB they drafted not being ready to start, but that doesn't appear to be the case. If Darnold was swimming, or they drafted a different QB who wasn't ready or flat-out sucked, and Teddy looked like he was working himself into the starting lineup, we wouldn't be having this conversation. But that's not happening. So by trading him, they'd basically be buying a fourth-round pick (or, hopefully, better) for the $500K guarantee they gave him. To me, that's a good deal on its own, and saving his $5.5M salary is a nice bonus. 

[EM31]

1 hour ago, slats said:

I hear you, this is what I think...

I think the Jets are doing everything they can to get Darnold ready to be the Day One starter, and that so far Darnold has been very much up to the challenge. I expect him to start the rest of the preseason and, barring a collapse or injury, I expect him to start opening day. 

I don't have high hopes for this season. The team still has too many holes. There's a lot of depth at some spots, but not enough great players. If this team is going to exceed expectations and contend for a playoff spot, I think the only possible way that happens is if Darnold exceeds all expectations, plays lights out, and carries the team on his shoulders. I don't have a particularly high opinion of Bridgewater, who I see as more of a game manager, and I don't see him filling in and carrying this team to contention. I also don't have as low an opinion of McCown as many here. While I don't want him in the starting lineup, I think he's just fine in the backup role. And again, I think that's where the organization is at, too. Darnold just surpassed McCown for starting reps this week in practice, but Josh is still ahead of Teddy in that regard. Part of that, undoubtedly, is that Bridgewater has trade value and McCown doesn't, but -despite any depth chart released by the team- the pecking order now looks like Darnold/McCown/Bridgewater. 

So all that said, yeah, I still trade Teddy for a fourth-rounder. Of course, I'd like to get more but that would be my floor. He's not going to be on the team next year, and I don't see him as particularly valuable for one season as long as Darnold is the starting QB. He was a good signing as a hedge against whatever QB they drafted not being ready to start, but that doesn't appear to be the case. If Darnold was swimming, or they drafted a different QB who wasn't ready or flat-out sucked, and Teddy looked like he was working himself into the starting lineup, we wouldn't be having this conversation. But that's not happening. So by trading him, they'd basically be buying a fourth-round pick (or, hopefully, better) for the $500K guarantee they gave him. To me, that's a good deal on its own, and saving his $5.5M salary is a nice bonus. 

As i thought our opinions are not that far apart except perhaps on the true value of a 4th.

$5.5m only helps us this year if we use it on something else of value and as I mentioned before I would be in favor of using any and all unused cap dollars to lock our own players in to new deals early.  The only problem is that this organization has zero history of doing that.

I like McCown too but he is 39 and coming off his best season ever.  If he reverts back to his average then that changes the QB calculus as well.  Snappy haircut notwithstanding.

<edited to add>

If the defense can be dominant then it is not clear to me that we need a top top QB to get us to contender status.  I agree it is not likely but it is not impossible either.

The rating of what Teddy was before he was injured seems to be the sticking point. Game manager or young/solid/top-10 QB?  I honestly did not see enough of him to know but it seems a little odd that we have so many divergent views on this question.

 

 

[slats]

31 minutes ago, EM31 said:

As i thought our opinions are not that far apart except perhaps on the true value of a 4th.

$5.5m only helps us this year if we use it on something else of value and as I mentioned before I would be in favor of using any and all unused cap dollars to lock our own players in to new deals early.  The only problem is that this organization has zero history of doing that.

I like McCown too but he is 39 and coming off his best season ever.  If he reverts back to his average then that changes the QB calculus as well.  Snappy haircut notwithstanding.

<edited to add>

If the defense can be dominant then it is not clear to me that we need a top top QB to get us to contender status.  I agree it is not likely but it is not impossible either.

The rating of what Teddy was before he was injured seems to be the sticking point. Game manager or young/solid/top-10 QB?  I honestly did not see enough of him to know but it seems a little odd that we have so many divergent views on this question.

4

They can carry over that $5.5M to next year, so it retains its value. 

I don't disagree on McCown, and yet I'd put the odds at better than 50-50 that he's back next year as Sam's backup on a smaller contract. 

And I recognize that my opinion on Teddy may be lower than others, but I think if the league thought of him as a top 10 type QB that he would've gotten a more favorable offer than to compete with McCown (who'd already been named the starter) and the QB the Jets were certain to draft in the first round.  

[GATA]

[Sperm Edwards]

2 hours ago, EM31 said:

First of all I generally find myself very much in agreement with most of what you have to say but I think you are a bit off on this one.  Perhaps there has been some hardening of positions because of the back and forth with Warfish.

Working backwards, $5.5 million dollars is truly peanuts in the current world for any player capable of starting NFL games at the QB position.  So not a lot to pay for whatever level of insurance that may become necessary. Not a lot to pay if your team has plenty of cap dollars as we do unless we are planning to lock up some of our own stars early (Williams?) but we never do that unfortunately.

The current problem with really knowing where we stand at QB and what "plans" the current organization may have is that we have one data point to go on at this time.  Parts of one preseason game and the first one at that.  Some will view it as proof positive that "pow" Sam is going straight to the moon and others that Teddy Bridgewater should be looked at as a viable long term solution as if the organization has not already committed the treasury to Sam Darnold once we drafted him.  Here are some scenarios under which a $5.5 million dollars for a non-joke QB would be prudent.

1) Perhaps Sam Darnold while he flashes plenty of positive signs is simply not ready t o play on Day-1.

2) While "worst to first" in one year never really happens in the NFL, worst to contender does happen fairly often.  I do not think this Jets team will show that kind of improvement but maybe it does.  Maybe Tom Brady finally shows his age and maybe the Bills and Dolphins are still bad.  Maybe the Jets defense is good enough to carry this team to a record that none of us are predicting.

3) Maybe the OLine is as bad as many of us fear it might be.  Maybe 3-deep at QB ends up being thin and we need a credible starter half way through game-1.

If any of the above are true then a 4th round pick is simply not enough in my mind to get back for a cheap, credible QB option who we have on the roster.  If the market is a 4th then keep him and use him however you feel is best for the organization.  I would not go less than a 2nd round pick which is not where the market is today.  The only things that change this equation IMO is if Teddy Bridgewater continues to show marketable skills and more importantly, if some other team becomes desperate.  The latter has not happened yet.

If on the other hand Sam is ready then we owe Teddy nothing.  He is a one year rental and he plays if we need him and he sits if we do not.  Pretty much a perfect situation.

  

Not that @slats needs me to come to his rescue, but I look at it through a narrower - and perhaps a simpler - lens (even though this post's word count will likely suggest otherwise but the time I'm done). Note that I'm also taking the "working backwards" POV:

Right now, if we had Darnold and McCown (with both looking pretty good, or at worst, not bad), still without a 2nd rounder next year, would you be eagerly motivated to trade away a 2019 4th rounder to rent Bridgewater at $5m for 1 season?

I do believe you're being sincere in your rationalization for keeping him, now that he's here, but I simply don't believe GM EM31 would make that move unless Darnold looked like 2013 Geno Smith this summer.

With McCown already locked in at $10m (on top of Darnold's $8m), if he wasn't already on the roster I don't think anyone here would be creating forum threads to trade any picks right now to bring in Teddy at $5m. Not even a 7th round pick, let alone a mid-rounder, if for no other reason than justifiable concern of spreading out the practice reps too thinly when Darnold needs as many as he can get in the remaining weeks of the preseason, and that's if Bridgewater didn't have durability concerns of his own.

[bitonti]

2 hours ago, slats said:

So all that said, yeah, I still trade Teddy for a fourth-rounder. 

 

if the Jets do nothing, let Teddy ride the pine. he could still sign a monster QB deal next year (they are all monster) and the Jets get a 3rd-4th comp pick in the following draft.

The floor for trade has to be a 3rd rounder and ideally they get one of the 2nds back they mortgaged for Sam Darnold. Maybe they can get that language in there conditionally. The market will eventually be full of buyers, the QB's haven't started getting hurt yet. 

[Warfish]

3 hours ago, EM31 said:

Perhaps there has been some hardening of positions because of the back and forth with Warfish.

Are you saying I make slats hard?

[Sperm Edwards]

19 minutes ago, slats said:

They can carry over that $5.5M to next year, so it retains its value. 

I don't disagree on McCown, and yet I'd put the odds at better than 50-50 that he's back next year as Sam's backup on a smaller contract. 

And I recognize that my opinion on Teddy may be lower than others, but I think if the league thought of him as a top 10 type QB that he would've gotten a more favorable offer than to compete with McCown (who'd already been named the starter) and the QB the Jets were certain to draft in the first round.  

If the league thought of him as a still-25 year-old top 10 veteran QB, we'd be discussing whether we should hold out for more than just a lone 1st round pick.

[slats]

15 minutes ago, bitonti said:

if the Jets do nothing, let Teddy ride the pine. he could still sign a monster QB deal next year (they are all monster) and the Jets get a 3rd-4th comp pick in the following draft.

The floor for trade has to be a 3rd rounder and ideally they get one of the 2nds back they mortgaged for Sam Darnold. Maybe they can get that language in there conditionally. The market will eventually be full of buyers, the QB's haven't started getting hurt yet. 

Like I said, that's my floor. I set the value at a fourth because a fourth-rounder, for argument's sake, in the middle of the round in 2019 would generally be considered more valuable than the last pick of the third round in 2020. And you get the added bonus of an additional $5.5M in cap room. 

And the Jets getting a comp pick in 2020 is no lock. Far from it. I recognize that they have a lot of players whose contracts expire at the end of the season, but they will be resigning some of them and replacing others in free agency. With over $80M in cap space, they could easily sign more FAs than they lose. They could also get creative with those signings (like by focusing on cut players who don't count in the formula), but I wouldn't count on it. 

[Sperm Edwards]

22 minutes ago, bitonti said:

if the Jets do nothing, let Teddy ride the pine. he could still sign a monster QB deal next year (they are all monster) and the Jets get a 3rd-4th comp pick in the following draft.

The floor for trade has to be a 3rd rounder and ideally they get one of the 2nds back they mortgaged for Sam Darnold. Maybe they can get that language in there conditionally. The market will eventually be full of buyers, the QB's haven't started getting hurt yet. 

@slats did bring up a good point yesterday(?), which is that if he does nothing but ride the pine, after sitting out 2 full NFL seasons, he's not getting a monster QB deal next year. He'd get something more like the mostly-incentive-based deal the Browns gave RGIII, which was not monster at all, and wouldn't yield a 3rd or a 4th round pick unless he started every game and hit every performance incentive.

On top of that, even if we got a compensatory 4th it would only nominally be considered a 4th rounder (pick #135-ish is a lot more like pick #140-ish than pick #100-ish).

Then on top of that, we wouldn't see this pick until 2020, making it the paper trade value of a late 5th rounder next year or just a late 6th rounder this year. 

Then on top of that it's still reasonably possible we don't get any compensatory pick for him at all. We might bring in or re-sign enough new UFAs whose prior contracts expired like in 2016, and frankly Teddy might get injured again. Then all we'd have gotten was a short term fruitless rental of Teddy for $5.5m and the knowledge of another missed opportunity.

Bridgewater was developing nicely before his injury, but until he makes it through at least 1 season injury-free he's going to carry that significant injury concern, plus he couldn't beat out a rookie, and as a result he'll be without taking a meaningful snap in 3 years. He's not getting a monster deal in that scenario. 

It was a good, forward-thinking move for Macc to sign him in the first place after whiffing on Cousins. He shouldn't blow it by not only getting nothing out of it, but paying over $5m for the privilege of owning the regret. 

[bitonti]

Just now, slats said:

And the Jets getting a comp pick in 2020 is no lock. Far from it. I recognize that they have a lot of players whose contracts expire at the end of the season, but they will be resigning some of them and replacing others in free agency. With over $80M in cap space, they could easily sign more FAs than they lose. 

Just now, Sperm Edwards said:

We might bring in or re-sign enough new UFAs whose prior contracts expired like in 2016, and frankly Teddy might get injured again. Then all we'd have gotten was a short term fruitless rental of Teddy for $5.5m and the knowledge of another missed opportunity.

1

 

 

The Jets backed the Brinks truck for Kirk Cousins and he wouldn't even look inside. This idea the Jets will be such a hot free agency target that all these high priced winners will be lining up for massive contracts is usually not how it goes down.  What usually happens is the cap goes up 10% every season, everyone good gets franchised and the Jets have to solve their problems through the draft. 

The supply of QBs is so low, just wait for someone to get injured and there will be a trade market for Teddy. 

[Losmeister]

reeling in the land of long winded mofo's...

 

[Sperm Edwards]

4 minutes ago, bitonti said:

The Jets backed the Brinks truck for Kirk Cousins and he wouldn't even look inside. This idea the Jets will be such a hot free agency target that all these high priced winners will be lining up for massive contracts is usually not how it goes down.  What usually happens is the cap goes up 10% every season, everyone good gets franchised and the Jets have to solve their problems through the draft. 

The supply of QBs is so low, just wait for someone to get injured and there will be a trade market for Teddy. 

It would be my preference, but it's not always feasible to time injuries. Plus it has to be more than just any injury to draw a 3rd rounder or higher; it has to be serious enough that the starter's going to be out more than just a week or so, possibly an injury that'd extend into 2019, and it has to be on a serious contender. No one else is rushing to trade a 2nd-3rd rounder for Bridgewater on a 1-year deal.

There's no rush to trade him right now, but I wouldn't push it until the trade deadline after week 8. The longer we wait the less likely it is someone forks over a high pick, since they'll get to use him for that much less before he needs to be extended or franchise tagged, and he'll have to acclimate to his new offense on that much shorter notice. At that point it'd have to be a major contender who not only lost its starting QB for the season, but it can't be a QB whose unique skills made them a contender in the first place, since he'd be getting replaced with a QB in Bridgewater who's more commonly thought of as a game manager than a 5000-yard gunslinger at the top of his game.

If the top offer is a 2019 4th rounder on Sept 1st, I take it before the offer disappears. Plus I'll bet it can be conditionally higher depending on how successful he is or even how much he plays. 

[Sperm Edwards]

7 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

reeling in the land of long winded mofo's...

 

TS;DR

[Losmeister]

Sperm,

I don't know what that means.

Los

ps- I mean, I do kinda/sorta get it...  but the endless speculation ...  zzzz

[Jetsplayer21]

On 8/10/2018 at 9:27 PM, jgb said:

The jets have 2 QBs with bright futures. Pinch me

And even another qb coming off a near pro bowl yr who may be the best qb to have on your team for a stud rooking with a strong desire to learn. What a qb room ?

[RutgersJetFan]

Crazy thought here: Excepting the scenario where the Jets can pull off a Bradford-type thing - The Jets have a ton of cap space, why not just pay Bridgewater a sh*t ton of money for next year? Isn't it better to insure the most important position on the field than to have an extra 3rd round pick?

I guess what I mean is that no matter what Darnold does the next few weeks, it's still the preseason of his rookie year. While they have the opportunity, why not solidify what has been the most lacking, and most important position on the team rather than thinning it out? Is it really worth ditching that security for a OL or DB prospect?

 

[shuler82]

1 hour ago, bitonti said:

if the Jets do nothing, let Teddy ride the pine. he could still sign a monster QB deal next year (they are all monster) and the Jets get a 3rd-4th comp pick in the following draft.

The floor for trade has to be a 3rd rounder and ideally they get one of the 2nds back they mortgaged for Sam Darnold. Maybe they can get that language in there conditionally. The market will eventually be full of buyers, the QB's haven't started getting hurt yet. 

But with the amount of spending the Jets will be doing next offseason does the comp pick even come into play? 

[EM31]

I always assumed that anyone willing to pay "GM EM31's" price would only do so if they were going to work out the parameters of a long term deal at the same time.

In any event it is fun to be a "have" for once instead of the usual "have not" pressing our noses up against the window from outside.... in the snow...  

[shuler82]

4 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Crazy thought here: Excepting the scenario where the Jets can pull off a Bradford-type thing - The Jets have a ton of cap space, why not just pay Bridgewater a sh*t ton of money for next year? Isn't it better to insure the most important position on the field than to have an extra 3rd round pick?

I guess what I mean is that no matter what Darnold does the next few weeks, it's still the preseason of his rookie year. While they have the opportunity: why not solidify what has been the most lacking, and most important position on the team rather than thinning it out?

 

The question remaind - what would it take to get Bridgewater to resign here as a likely backup? Now for a GM that eagerly hands jags like Fitzpatrick and McCown an open checkbook, maybe the Jets are willing to go higher than most of us would consider. But would it be enough? 

[slats]

12 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Crazy thought here: Excepting the scenario where the Jets can pull off a Bradford-type thing - The Jets have a ton of cap space, why not just pay Bridgewater a sh*t ton of money for next year? Isn't it better to insure the most important position on the field than to have an extra 3rd round pick?

I guess what I mean is that no matter what Darnold does the next few weeks, it's still the preseason of his rookie year. While they have the opportunity, why not solidify what has been the most lacking, and most important position on the team rather than thinning it out? Is it really worth ditching that security for a OL or DB prospect?

 

Then you're passing on the pick, paying his $5.5M salary this year plus a "sh*t ton" of money next year. All told, probably enough resources to bring in four or five good players thru the draft and free agency. High price for what you hope is your backup QB. 

And that's assuming that Teddy would accept said sh*t ton to pass on a starting opportunity next year, which is a pretty big assumption. 

[RutgersJetFan]

11 minutes ago, slats said:

Then you're passing on the pick, paying his $5.5M salary this year plus a "sh*t ton" of money next year. All told, probably enough resources to bring in four or five good players thru the draft and free agency. High price for what you hope is your backup QB. 

And that's assuming that Teddy would accept said sh*t ton to pass on a starting opportunity next year, which is a pretty big assumption. 

Sure on the last part. Absolutely. I'm just waxing theoretical here.

My point is that, with respect to the first couple sentences; isn't that worth it though? Making sure QB is set for the foreseeable future strikes me as way more important than anything else and the Jets should be doubling, tripling, and quadrupling down on it considering the position they are in with both these guys.

[slats]

3 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Sure on the last part. Absolutely. I'm just waxing theoretical here.

My point is that, with respect to the first couple sentences; isn't that worth it though? Making sure QB is set for the foreseeable future strikes me as way more important than anything else and the Jets should be doubling, tripling, and quadrupling down on it considering the position they are in with both these guys.

Maybe if Sam wasn't looking the part... ?

But he is, so I'd say no. I'd rather add those four or five players around him, and maybe one of them could be a different, less expensive, quality backup. 

And really, I think it's pretty close to an impossibility, anyway.