McShays Latest Mock

[Big_Slick]

7 hours ago, choon328 said:

You could except McShays latest mock has picks 8, 9 & 10 taking tackles.  That's why you would need to at least get to 7

I just don't see Gettleman taking OL at #4, he thinks he's the smartest guy in the room but he's really an idiot. Jacksonville at #9 won't go with the 3rd best OL and knowing that the Browns will take the best available OL at #10 will still get their guy at #11 while picking up a 3rd.

If the LT that JD has rated his top player is still their at #7 I'd be happy to trade our second, as much as that brings back nightmares when Macc traded what seemed like seventeen 2nd rounders to move up for Sam.

The top WR's in this draft are great but they're also good ones that will be their when our first 3rd comes up. Overall I want to build the foundation first, franchise QB - check - now get a franchise LT and add the glitter pieces in 2021/2022.

[varjet]

This is Douglas' dllemma, and I can understand it based on my observations.

NFL. com rates all of the prospects.  7.0-7.2 is Pro Bowl Talent, 6.6-6.8 is Year 1 Quality Starter, 6.5 is Boom or Bust.

Andrew Thomas is a 6.48, and Jeudy and Lamb are 6.86.  They actually look that way, and it feels that way. 

Between the two of them are an assortment of QBs, RBS and LB.  I don't think we should pick them.  But it will be tough to pick an OL when the WR is that much better of a football player/athlete.

https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/prospects?page=2&year=2020

[RobR]

46 minutes ago, varjet said:

This is Douglas' dllemma, and I can understand it based on my observations.

NFL. com rates all of the prospects.  7.0-7.2 is Pro Bowl Talent, 6.6-6.8 is Year 1 Quality Starter, 6.5 is Boom or Bust.

Andrew Thomas is a 6.48, and Jeudy and Lamb are 6.86.  They actually look that way, and it feels that way. 

Between the two of them are an assortment of QBs, RBS and LB.  I don't think we should pick them.  But it will be tough to pick an OL when the WR is that much better of a football player/athlete.

https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/prospects?page=2&year=2020

Stop looking at NFL.com prospect rankings and the numerical value they give them because it's a complete joke and has zero merit.

Thomas is going to be a stud.

[HawkeyeJet]

7 minutes ago, RobR said:

Stop looking at NFL.com prospect rankings and the numerical value they give them because it's a complete joke and has zero merit.

Thomas is going to be a stud.

It's basically a copy of a scouting grade system that is widely used throughout NFL front offices.  You may not agree with the grades they provide, but to say they have no merit is silly.  

[RobR]

34 minutes ago, HawkeyeJet said:

It's basically a copy of a scouting grade system that is widely used throughout NFL front offices.  You may not agree with the grades they provide, but to say they have no merit is silly.  

It actually is a joke when you can assign a player a score to the 100th percentage of a point and some take that as gospel.  I'd love to see some concrete evidence that this is widely used among NFL front offices.....I think KRO25 is still writing these.

[HawkeyeJet]

7 hours ago, RobR said:

It actually is a joke when you can assign a player a score to the 100th percentage of a point and some take that as gospel.  I'd love to see some concrete evidence that this is widely used among NFL front offices.....I think KRO25 is still writing these.

http://www.tonysoftli.com/scouting/

http://www.draftdaddy.com/features/blesto.htm

https://football-science.com/nfs-grading-scale/

https://football-science.com/blesto-grading-scale/

[Joe the Breadman]

On 3/3/2020 at 9:30 AM, choon328 said:

I normally wouldn't put much into these mock drafts but Mcshay and Joe Douglas are best friends and former college roommates.  I for sure am going to be following McShays mock drafts a little more than usual.  He has the Jets taking Jeudy after 3 OT's (Becton, Wirfs, Wills) go right before them.

If Andrew Thomas was still on the board how was this not the pick

[Jimmy 2 Times]

1 hour ago, Joe the Breadman said:

If Andrew Thomas was still on the board how was this not the pick

Because the Jets will be the death of us all. 

[varjet]

I looked at the last 4 drafts.  

As my only defense to Mac, one reason he did not draft OL in the first round was that there were not opportunities.  There were opportunities to draft OL in the later rounds that also could have worked. For example he picked Adarius Stewart over Pat Elfein and Hack over Cody Whitehair. 

But let's look at the players available from 2016-2019 at picks 11-15, and where the first round OTs were drafted  

2016-Hargraves (11), Rankins (12), Tunsil (13), Joseph (14), Corey Coleman (15). This draft looks like this year a bit, with Ronnie Stanley picked at 6 and Conklin at 8.  Taylor Decker was picked at 16, and Ifedi at 31.

So you are JD are Andrew Thomas, CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy are also available in this draft.  The other OTs are gone.  Who do you pick?  Laremy Tunsil! Then maybe Thomas over the WR.  But the other options from 2016 aren't better than Thomas or the WRS.  I am assuming Thomas projects to be a better LT than Taylor Decker.

2017-Lattimore (11), Watson (12), Reddick (13), Barnett (14) and Hooker (15), plus assume the same three from this year.  There were no OTs picked above 11, and Bolles at 20.  Who you picking?  Assume we are not smart enough to pick Watson.  I think its Thomas or the WRs again.   Not Bolles.

2018-Minkah (11), Vito Vea (12), Payne (13), Davenport (14), Kolton Miller (15).  McGlinchey went at 9, Isaiah Wynn at 23.    Same game-who you picking?    Who do we like better-Kolton Miller or Thomas?  Probably Thomas-maybe not.  Not Minkah, unless we trade Adams.  

2019-Jonah Williams (11), Rashan Gary (12), Christian Wilkins (13), Lindstrom (G)(14), Dwayne Haskins (15).   Dillard went 22 and Tytus Howard went 33).  Plus assume the same three from this year.  Who you picking?  Same story-not Jonah Williams over Thomas and the WRs.

This exercise was helpful.  The key to the Jets draft is figuring out if Andrew Thomas can be a solid starter at LT.   Otherwise the Jets are very fortunate to have the likely choices in this draft when they compared to prior drafts.  If Thomas is ok and the WRs are Pro Bowl, I don't think that is an acceptable outcome despite the need for LT.  

[TuscanyTile2]

On 3/3/2020 at 11:27 AM, pdxgreen said:

Man.  If Herbert goes to the Colts I will be doing cartwheels... or at least jumping as pitifully as I can.

This would be great for Greenbean's YouTube channel.  It would be even better if we could get Crusher to do them with you. 

[TuscanyTile2]

On 3/3/2020 at 11:38 AM, Jethead said:

Thomas would be my preferred OT choice. I've watched just about every UGA game the past two years and he definitely looks the part against the toughest competition. Wills was my 2nd favorite for similar reasons. I'm afraid that Wirfs and Becton are combine wonders, especially Becton.

If we sign Vitai, +/or another OL target in free agency, I would far rather we took our top WR choice over OT # 4 or 5. There are some big time OT prospects we could choose in the 2nd round where the risk/reward is much better like Wilson or Charles who both have some great SEC tape.

Were you the guy who watches a ton of college football and picked a couple of sleepers in the past couple of drafts?  I remember making a mental note to follow that person.  Was that you?

[TuscanyTile2]

On 3/3/2020 at 12:28 PM, ChuckkieB said:

I'm gonna bang this drum until draft day - 2 OL and 2 WR in the first 3 rounds. 

I would be ecstatic if Jeudy is the pick at 11.

I've been thinking the same thing.  If we don't sign Robbie, we're going to need some real WRs.  If this draft has such good WRs then I would have no issue if we took 2 WRs in the 1st 3 rounds (during which we have 4 picks).  Ideally we grab 2 competent OL as well.  That would be an absolute haul if we could pull that off but it sounds like the talent in this draft matches our needs for once.

[TuscanyTile2]

On 3/3/2020 at 12:38 PM, rangerous said:

i'd be good with a top wr at 11.  my only concern is the guy would need to start from day 1.  then they can use their 2nd and a third on oline.  and if they manage to sign one or more top oline free agents then that's all the better.

The concern would be that we reach for an OL and he ends up being mediocre.  Then we get a WR in the 2nd or 3rd round but he's not a difference-maker (like maybe we could've had at #11 overall).  But I speak in generalities here as I am definitely no draft expert.  I have faith in JD though.

A couple of years ago there were 4 QBs to choose from and it felt like we'd be okay as long as we landed one of them.  The concern with this year's OL class is that we don't want to end up with the Josh Rosen of that class.  (though admittedly Rosen is still young and could turn things around eventually).

[TNJet]

On 3/3/2020 at 11:03 AM, jetstream23 said:

It's an interesting Mock.  I just read the whole thing.

The first 7 picks include 0 Offensive Tackles.  He then has AZ, JAX and CLE taking 3 straight (Becton, Wirfs and Wills) leaving the Jets with a choice of any WR or Andrew Thomas.  Jeudy and Lamb go back-to-back at 11 and 12.  Thomas doesn't go until.....wait for it......29th!  He has the Titans taking him.

I think we all need to understand what may be happening with Thomas and whether he's really the prospect that he was thought to be prior to his 2019 college season.  He was a consensus Top 5 pick heading into the college season last Summer but by many accounts he's now not even one of the Top 4 OTs.  McShay has OT Josh Jones taken ahead of him at 26 by Miami.  (Read that one again).  Miami at #26 could have taken Andrew Thomas and passed in Todd's mock draft here.

We need more info on Thomas.

McShay a putz. Kiper >> McShay 

[rangerous]

13 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

The concern would be that we reach for an OL and he ends up being mediocre.  Then we get a WR in the 2nd or 3rd round but he's not a difference-maker (like maybe we could've had at #11 overall).  But I speak in generalities here as I am definitely no draft expert.  I have faith in JD though.

A couple of years ago there were 4 QBs to choose from and it felt like we'd be okay as long as we landed one of them.  The concern with this year's OL class is that we don't want to end up with the Josh Rosen of that class.  (though admittedly Rosen is still young and could turn things around eventually).

true enough.  at the same time i think it's far easier to evaluate an olineman than a qb.  and even if the olineman can't be a tackle he may still be a very good guard.  fabini was pretty good coming out of the 4th round and randy thomas was a 2nd rounder.

[Jethead]

17 hours ago, TuscanyTile2 said:

Were you the guy who watches a ton of college football and picked a couple of sleepers in the past couple of drafts?  I remember making a mental note to follow that person.  Was that you?

nope, sorry. just an opinionated Jets fan since the '60s