New York Jets Sam Darnold is the best quarterback in the AFC East by Evan Desai 10 hours ago Follow @mumbai_desai

[Jet Nut]

20 minutes ago, slats said:

I continue to believe that it’s no coincidence that Darnold’s most vocal detractors also live outside the metro NY area. The cold, black & white numbers are not impressive, watching Sam Darnold perform with a cast of clowns around him is. The kid can obviously play. He wouldn’t be the league MVP on the Ravens, but on that team under Harbaugh, they’d be a Super Bowl favorite. Ditto for the Bills. Sam Darnold would make them a much better team and in the AFC Champs discussion rather than the AFCe Champs discussion. 

Football is a team game, and the team around Darnold has been horrendous. He’s on his second head coach, and they probably both suck. Put him in a stable situation with a middling OL and a genuine weapon or two and this isn’t even a conversation. Really hoping the OL and Mims and Perriman make the difference this year. 

And one has a history off being so far off base when it comes to QBs as is humanly possible. 

And to make it that much better has no idea what its like to be a fan, comes up confused by fan talk

[Jetsfan80]

[munchmemory]

6 minutes ago, Warfish said:

So?

How many wins did the NFL grant us for having the youngest starting QB?

How many extra first downs did we get from the Refs because Sam was just a widdle kid?

Until the league starts giving us something for Sam's age, this really isn't a valid excuse or topic worth debate. 

He is the starting QB on an NFL team.  If he wasn't ready because of his youth, he shouldn't have been starting.

But he was ready and did start.  He gets judged by the job he is responsible for, like all starting QB's. 

No two or three year mulligans for youth.  He's not a trainee, he's not doing an apprenticeship here.

 

Twice we went after USC QBs who hadn't played a lot of games in college.  That never made any sense to me.  Still doesn't.

[JetFreak89]

9 minutes ago, 14 in Green said:

We've been having the same discussion, with the same people holding true to the same opinions, for two seasons.

Here's what's true.

1. We gave up a lot of draft capital to get Darnold.

2. Yes, he's still young and has potential ( he was the 3rd pick in the draft, so that's a given)

Here's what's opinion... Going into his 3rd year he has yet to convince everyone he's the player we hoped we were getting. He is not a bust, but it's also likely his ceiling isn't as high as was thought.

Allen, Mayfield and Darnold all have two seasons in the books. They've had good and bad moments, but a team can't wait forever for a QB anymore, not with the way these guys are getting paid after a first contract. As of now the only QB from the '18 draft who has proved to be a "hit" is Lamar Jackson. It's up to the others to show their teams chose as wisely as the Ravens did.

 

 

 

The reason that Sam's play is so controversial is because for the 2 seasons he has been a pro so far, each year has been a Tale of Two Seasons. His rookie year, he had a great first game, a couple poor ones, a couple decent ones then 4 horrendous ones and then ended with 4 good ones. 

Year 2 he had a decent opener, then gets hurt, has a good one vs DAL then the atrocity that was NE, a bad one vs JAX and then ended the season with 7 good games and 2 mediocre but not terrible ones (CIN/Buf 2). 

So at the end of the day the question remains, will every season play out the same as the first two (with wild inconsistency)? Or did he start poorly in two seasons because in Year 1 he was a rookie and Year 2 he was battling mono? Nobody knows the answer to that. 

What we do know is that he tends to improve as the year progresses, which is a good sign. He showed overall improvement from Year 1 to Year 2 with worse offensive talent around him.

Optimistically, he should also be more comfortable with the playbook since it will be the first time he will be in the same offensive system for two seasons. He should also play better with better offensive line play to rely on. Those are my optimistic takes but the pessimists have plenty of game evidence to point to that I could be wrong. 

[JustInFudge]

11 minutes ago, Warfish said:

So?

How many wins did the NFL grant us for having the youngest starting QB?

How many extra first downs did we get from the Refs because Sam was just a widdle kid?

Until the league starts giving us something for Sam's age, this really isn't a valid excuse or topic worth debate. 

He is the starting QB on an NFL team.  If he wasn't ready because of his youth, he shouldn't have been starting.

But he was ready and did start.  He gets judged by the job he is responsible for, like all starting QB's. 

No two or three year mulligans for youth.  He's not a trainee, he's not doing an apprenticeship here.

 

When comparing him vs. a 15 year veteran, you know 90% of my post that you edited out, it matters.   This post has literally absolutely nothing to do with what the point I was making in the conversation I wasnt having with you. 

[JetFreak89]

12 minutes ago, Warfish said:

So?

How many wins did the NFL grant us for having the youngest starting QB?

How many extra first downs did we get from the Refs because Sam was just a widdle kid?

Until the league starts giving us something for Sam's age, this really isn't a valid excuse or topic worth debate. 

He is the starting QB on an NFL team.  If he wasn't ready because of his youth, he shouldn't have been starting.

But he was ready and did start.  He gets judged by the job he is responsible for, like all starting QB's. 

No two or three year mulligans for youth.  He's not a trainee, he's not doing an apprenticeship here.

 

What exactly is your argument here though?

Do you not expect NFL QB's to improve with experience as they play the game?

Do you expect every QB to come out of the gate like Patrick Mahomes regardless of the numerous variables that make each situation different? 

[Losmeister]

1 hour ago, JiF said:

15 years from now vs. an an old and battered Brady?  Sure. 

Besides, Mark Sanchez won there in the playoffs, so it's definitely possible. lol

age isn't an excuse...    its a characteristic of any player...   and the only thing that matters is production.... Sam the golden boy is being outplayed by a journeyman....   no way Sam wins a game in Gillette last yr. 

[Warfish]

6 minutes ago, JiF said:

When comparing him vs. a 15 year veteran, you know 90% of my post that you edited out, it matters. 

It really doesn't.  It's an excuse. 

If Darnold can't compete vs. a never-that-great 15 year veteran like Fitz at the tail end of Fitz's career.....

6 minutes ago, JiF said:

,,,,,in the conversation I wasn't having with you. 

I'll be sure to remind you of this attitude next time you respond to any thread or post where you were not specifically solicited for your opinion. 

[Snook]

20 hours ago, Losmeister said:

Still looking up at Fitz...

Would you trade Darnold for Fitz?

[Losmeister]

17 minutes ago, JetFreak89 said:

What we do know is that he tends to improve as the year progresses, which is a good sign.

hogwash.

playing well after poor play has made the playoffs impossible is like preseason- it doesnt mean ish.

 eff that ish, man.

[Jetsfan80]

6 minutes ago, Snook said:

Would you trade Darnold for Fitz?

Having weaker trade value is not a requirement to say a QB is better at this stage.  

I wouldn't trade Darnold for about 20 of the starting QB's in the league, but several of them are better than Sam at this stage in their respective careers. 

Think Matt Ryan, Stafford, Tannehill or Rivers.  All better than Darnold right now, but I wouldn't trade Darnold for any of those 4.  

[Losmeister]

3 minutes ago, Snook said:

Would you trade Darnold for Fitz?

who would our STARTING QB be in that scenario? cos this would only be as backup potential.

[JustInFudge]

4 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

age isn't an excuse...    its a characteristic of any player...   and the only thing that matters is production.... Sam the golden boy is being outplayed by a journeyman....   no way Sam wins a game in Gillette last yr. 

Age is absolutely an excuse. To think a rookie should be on par with someone who has started hundreds of games is asinine.  Was Peyton Manning the same QB his was as a rookie for his career?  Brady?  Rodgers?  Brees?  Big Ben?  I mean, this is literally an insane conversation.   QB's improve with time.  Comparing a rookie to a 15 year vet in totally different systems with different weapons is nutty. 

To use a more simple example; Ryan Fitzpatrick started 3 games in his first 3 seasons.  Why wasnt he as good as Sam in his first 2 years?

legit this is nutty

 

[Warfish]

22 minutes ago, JetFreak89 said:

What exactly is your argument here though?

Age isn't an excuse.

22 minutes ago, JetFreak89 said:

Do you not expect NFL QB's to improve with experience as they play the game?

I expect a first round pick acquired at exceptional cost to be above average by his third season in the league, minimum.

22 minutes ago, JetFreak89 said:

Do you expect every QB to come out of the gate like Patrick Mahomes regardless of the numerous variables that make each situation different? 

It sure would be a nice change of pace for us, wouldn't it?

 

[Warfish]

6 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Having weaker trade value is not a requirement to say a QB is better at this stage.  

I wouldn't trade Darnold for about 20 of the starting QB's in the league, but several of them are better than Sam at this stage in their respective careers. 

Think Matt Ryan, Stafford, Tannehill or Rivers.  All better than Darnold right now, but I wouldn't trade Darnold for any of those 4.  

This. 

Hypothetical trade "value" in a totally hypothetical market is perhaps the least useful metric for evaluating a QB.

it's amazing the lengths some will go to avoid using plain, old, production to judge Sam Darnold. 

[JustInFudge]

9 minutes ago, Warfish said:

It really doesn't.  It's an excuse. 

If Darnold can't compete vs. a never-that-great 15 year veteran like Fitz at the tail end of Fitz's career.....

I'll be sure to remind you of this attitude next time you respond to any thread or post where you were not specifically solicited for your opinion. 

You chopped up my post to make an asinine troll post to continue to push your Sam sucks agenda you've had ever since you predicted he wouldnt go top 3.  It had absolutely nothing to do with the conversation we were having.  You didnt want to get into a serious conversation about this. 

[Snook]

6 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

who would our STARTING QB be in that scenario? cos this would only be as backup potential.

Would you trade Darnold for Fitz? Not a complicated question.

[Warfish]

3 minutes ago, JiF said:

You chopped up my post to make an asinine troll post to continue to push your Sam sucks agenda you've had ever since you predicted he wouldnt go top 3.  It had absolutely nothing to do with the conversation we were having.  You didnt want to get into a serious conversation about this. 

[Losmeister]

3 minutes ago, Snook said:

Would you trade Darnold for Fitz? Not a complicated question.

as a backup i prefer Fitz...    Sam hasnt proved he is a good starter, so we'd have to have someone who is good to START before i woiuld consider paying Fitz the same amount as i'd pay Sam as the BACKUP.

[Snook]

2 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

as a backup i prefer Fitz...    Sam hasnt proved he is a good starter, so we'd have to have someone who is good to START before i woiuld consider paying Fitz the same amount as i'd pay Sam as the BACKUP.

Still didn't answer my question.

[Losmeister]

FO dyar-

2019  Fitz 18, Sam 32

2018- Fitz 15, Sam 30

 

By all stats, Sam is not ready to be a starter in the NFL   

[JustInFudge]

Just now, Losmeister said:

FO dyar-

2019  Fitz 18, Sam 32

2018- Fitz 15, Sam 30

 

By all stats, Sam is not ready to be a starter in the NFL   

Sweet now do Fitz first 2 years vs. Sam first 2 years.

[greenwichjetfan]

19 minutes ago, JiF said:

Age is absolutely an excuse. To think a rookie should be on par with someone who has started hundreds of games is asinine.  Was Peyton Manning the same QB his was as a rookie for his career?  Brady?  Rodgers?  Brees?  Big Ben?  I mean, this is literally an insane conversation.   QB's improve with time.  Comparing a rookie to a 15 year vet in totally different systems with different weapons is nutty. 

To use a more simple example; Ryan Fitzpatrick started 3 games in his first 3 seasons.  Why wasnt he as good as Sam in his first 2 years?

legit this is nutty

 

Age isn't an excuse for not being able to have 10k hours of deliberate practice! These high first round QBs should be throwing 20 yard frozen ropes as newborns! That's how Peyton and Mahomes did it!

[Losmeister]

5 minutes ago, Snook said:

Still didn't answer my question.

for the backup role, yes....if we had a starter who was better than both.

right now to be the starter longer term, no.

[Losmeister]

4 minutes ago, JiF said:

Sweet now do Fitz first 2 years vs. Sam first 2 years.

Sam was playing basket ball in junoir high....the only 2 years that matter or the years we have had Sam start for us

[JustInFudge]

2 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

Sam was playing basket ball in junoir high....the only 2 years that matter or the years we have had Sam start for us

You're still missing the point. All good.  

[JohnnyLV]

7 hours ago, Warfish said:

 

7 hours ago, Warfish said:

Will the "best QB in the AFC East" produce to starting QB average or above levels in the major QB production stats, passing yards, TD's, etc.

Will he play all 16 games in 2020?  Will he throw for over 4,000 yards?  Throw 30 TD's?  Throw less than 15 INT's?

That's what I care about.  I'll save my praise for after Sam, the 27th rated QB in the NFL in 2019, actually earns it in 2020.  And all I am asking for is average at least.  15th rated or better.

War, this is silly.

4 QBs threw for 30 or more touchdowns last year. Full season he throws for 23 or 24, about 14th

11 QBs thrrough for over 4000 yards last year but just barely 5 were within 60 yards of 4000. Sam would have thrown for 3720 in 16 games. about 15th

Interceptions need to improve but he wasnt the worst in the NFL in percentage, he was 6th and more than half those game in 2 games back to back before Sam told Gase the offense was not fitting him

So even with the two horrible games he was already close to middle of the pack even last year.

If those 2 horrid games are really outliers, struggles for a 2nd year QB with no OL and limited weapons, then it is hardly a stetch to think that even if he does not improve as a QB from last year with an improved OL and better weapons he is already above average.

I think the odds of Sam not being better this year after another year of development and 2nd year in system is zero actually.

 

 

 

 

[JetFreak89]

41 minutes ago, Losmeister said:

hogwash.

playing well after poor play has made the playoffs impossible is like preseason- it doesnt mean ish.

 eff that ish, man.

A regular season game is never like a preseason game, regardless of circumstances. I agree though it is different playing with a playoff spot on the line vs. not but even last year we weren't technically eliminated from the playoffs until Dec. 8th. Still my point is that as the year progresses and other teams build tape on you, it's usually harder for QB's and not the other way around. 

[Warfish]

10 minutes ago, johnnysd said:

 

War, this is silly.

4 QBs threw for 30 or more touchdowns last year. Full season he throws for 23 or 24, about 14th

It's be great if he played a full season.  He hasn't yet.  Can't give him credit for something he hasn't yet done.

The average TD passes of starting 16- and 15-game NFL QB's in 2019 was 25. 

How about we hope for 25 or more then in 2020 then.

Quote

11 QBs thrrough for over 4000 yards last year but just barely 5 were within 60 yards of 4000. Sam would have thrown for 3720 in 16 games. about 15th

The average passing yards of starting 16- and 15-game NFL QB's in 2019 was 3,962. 

How about we hope for 3,962 in 2020 then.

Quote

Interceptions need to improve but he wasnt the worst in the NFL in percentage

Is that supposed to be good, that he wasn't dead last?

Quote

I think the odds of Sam not being better this year after another year of development and 2nd year in system is zero actually.

I agree.

But see, here is the thing, my threshold for expectations for a #3 overall pick, best in draft class, QB we paid so many picks for and who is described here by fans as as "special", "elite", "best in the AFC  or AFC East", etc, isn't just "improvement" in his third year.

What is the production of a special, elite, best in AFC QB in 2020?  If we're going to call him that, is it so wrong then to expect him to deliver on that with that kind of production?

If you don't like me 4,000 yard, 30 TD hopes for Darnold, and you think that's asking too much from our special, elite, best in AFC East QB, then what is YOUR hope for a special, elite, best in AFC East QB? 

I sure hope it's more than "improvement" and competing with the likes of Baker and Allen only.

[Losmeister]

15 minutes ago, JiF said:

You're still missing the point. All good.  

only allowed to compare players at same pt of career is a rule you invented to make yourslef feel better about 30th and 32nd dyar...

am glad you are satisfied.

[Losmeister]

5 minutes ago, JetFreak89 said:

even last year we weren't technically eliminated from the playoffs until Dec. 8th

so you are actually using the 0% chance as "b eing eliminated"

at 1-7 we wernt mathematically eliminated...    but our odds were abysmally low...   and if you looked at a list of 1-7 teams making playoffs...that list prololy doesnt exist.... 

[Losmeister]

9 minutes ago, JetFreak89 said:

A regular season game is never like a preseason game, regardless of circumstances. I agree though it is different playing with a playoff spot on the line

i want ALOTTA WINS

so far the return on investment is in the BUST category. do i believe it will remain so? not really. it looks like he'll be Andy Dalton or maybe achieve Alex Smith level eventually 

[Snook]

1 hour ago, Losmeister said:

age isn't an excuse...    its a characteristic of any player...   and the only thing that matters is production.... Sam the golden boy is being outplayed by a journeyman....   no way Sam wins a game in Gillette last yr. 

A one year old could do it? Variables do matter.

[GreenFish]

32 minutes ago, Warfish said:

If you don't like me 4,000 yard, 30 TD hopes for Darnold, and you think that's asking too much from our special, elite, best in AFC East QB, then what is YOUR hope for a special, elite, best in AFC East QB? 

I sure hope it's more than "improvement" and competing with the likes of Baker and Allen only.

100% agree. If people think Darnold is the real deal and are moderately satisfied with what Joe D did to the OL, than people need to up their expectations.

I think Darnold is special. The band of my expectations are 1) being in the MVP conversation on the high end 2) On the low end, 4,000 yards 2-1 TD-INT ratio. The pieces around him are good enough. He’ll shine this year.

[JohnnyLV]

42 minutes ago, Warfish said:

It's be great if he played a full season.  He hasn't yet.  Can't give him credit for something he hasn't yet done.

The average TD passes of starting 16- and 15-game NFL QB's in 2019 was 25. 

How about we hope for 25 or more then in 2020 then.

The average passing yards of starting 16- and 15-game NFL QB's in 2019 was 3,962. 

How about we hope for 3,962 in 2020 then.

Is that supposed to be good, that he wasn't dead last?

I agree.

But see, here is the thing, my threshold for expectations for a #3 overall pick, best in draft class, QB we paid so many picks for and who is described here by fans as as "special", "elite", "best in the AFC  or AFC East", etc, isn't just "improvement" in his third year.

What is the production of a special, elite, best in AFC QB in 2020?  If we're going to call him that, is it so wrong then to expect him to deliver on that with that kind of production?

If you don't like me 4,000 yard, 30 TD hopes for Darnold, and you think that's asking too much from our special, elite, best in AFC East QB, then what is YOUR hope for a special, elite, best in AFC East QB? 

I sure hope it's more than "improvement" and competing with the likes of Baker and Allen only.

I would hope he has the numbers you suggested and suspect he will but you described them as average when if he does that he will  be closer to elite. Using "average" stats in the NFL is meaningless, you have to use medians to really see what is average, so again your expectations for average are way off.