The case for a "trade down" draft strategy

[bitonti]

46 minutes ago, Jetster said:

Sewell is a freaking mean azz beast! Some people think his frame can get to a freakish 375 no problem! This team has had no identity since Rex gave us some swagger back in 2009/2010. It seems to be an unusual direction but I believe it's only because not many teams have even been in the position to have 2 super athletic, ridiculously strong & agile tackles like Becton + Sewell! Build the team & drop a QB in there. There is no doubt with 100 million dollars that JD is coming out of free agency with either Robinson- Juju- or Godwin! Immediately that's the best WR group we've had since Edwards- Holmes- Cotchery! And MUCH YOUNGER! 

We are definitely in the zone with Seattle & the #33 pick to add even more firepower, i.e. Harris or Etienne, or Devonta Smith or Deshon Moore, or Tarrace Marshall? 

Lets just beat the f*ck out of the front 7s in our division! 

Sewell is the leadership player this team lost when they traded 33

Becton is awesome on the field he's also quiet and peculiar off it.

Sam Darnold has some of the worst body language when they are losing 

Sewell is more of a ray Lewis you have to play well or he will be pissed kind of player 

The Jets need someone in the locker room who gives a damn and has the talent to make a difference. 

[Alka]

On 12/25/2020 at 10:39 AM, TuscanyTile2 said:

[This assumes we're not in position to take Trevor]

-We have a lot of holes to fill so trading down gets us more picks

-We have Seattle's #1 pick this year so trading down from 1.02 won't feel as painful, in that we'll still be adding multiple 1st rounders this year

-Minimizes the risk of taking the wrong guy at 1.02.

-There doesn't seem to be a surefire "2nd best QB" in this draft so why not trade down?  You will still have a chance at some of these QBs later in the 1st round.

-If we continually trade for extra picks in future seasons it will set us up down the line to fortify the team with replacements as players want to get paid (the Belichick strategy).

-Potentially we make a trade for a future draft choice with a team that ends up picking in the top 5.  In other words, we could have a good season that year while still picking toward the top of the draft.

 

FWIW, I think this is the strategy JD is going to take.  

Personally, I don't mind trade down if you give up a blue chip player and get one in return plus other picks.  But I'm not in favor of giving up a blue chip player, and in return get for example (2 second round picks a lower 1st round pick, next years 1st round pick and a 3rd round pick).  Giving up Sewell at #2, and getting like say a #18 pick, next years 1st round pick plus 2 second round picks and a third round pick is not getting enough in return.  

For the Jets to give up #2, I want to remain in the top 10 of round 1, then get next years 1st round pick, plus this years second round pick, plus next years second round pick. If I can't get at least that, then I keep the pick.  Giving up #2 of the first round and getting something below 12 of the 1st round, I would want the following:  1st round pick this year, 1st round pick next year, and 1st round pick the year after, plus 2- 3d round picks for this year and next.

I would give up #2 for a #5, then the next years #1 and 2 #2's.

I just don't know if some team would want to give up that much draft capital.

[joewilly12]

Trade nothing. 

Select immediate impact BPA players at the positions this team desperately needs. 

We need to leave this draft with at least 4-6 starters. 

[GREENBEAN]

1 hour ago, Jetster said:

These 2 trades I could live with! No brainer. If he wants Wilson, he'll I'm happy if he just moves back 1 spot to #3 for Bengals #34. Having the 1st 2 picks in the second round while 31 GMs are checking their boards could be the sweetest draft spots in the entire draft!

These are the spots that you could have players involved from teams way over the salary cap! How would you like the Saints offering Lattimore in a trade down scenario? 

Right.  It takes both knowledge, know how and balls to pull those types of things off. Macc mosre than likely had a trade on the table in 2019 but was afraid to look stupid for not getting back what he gave up the year before.  Csn't have that type of thinking and still succeed in numerous scenarios. 

I'm a bit more excited for this draft than usual for these exact types of possibilities. Like you said, if we can nail down the 1st 2 picks of the 2nd rd we would be in prime position to get a lot done. 

[joewilly12]

2 minutes ago, GREENBEAN said:

'm a bit more excited for this draft than usual for these exact types of possibilities. Like you said, if we can nail down the 1st 2 picks of the 2nd rd we would be in prime position to get a lot done. 

4-6 immediate impact players starters need to come out of this draft. 

[CanadaSteve]

1 hour ago, Warfish said:

Not long ago, someone would have written the exact same type of post.......about how there was no way the Jets could win a game, and how T.L. was 100% ours.

Let me be clear:  In concept I have no issue with trading down, if we get more out of it that standing pat.  If you can produce more than an elite O-lineman, great.  I'm as yet unconvinced you can in this draft for these 2B type QB's at the 2nd pick.  But I could be convinced.

And yes, trades happen in most drafts.  That doesn't mean one will happen for us, in this draft, for a "huge haul".  Every draft is unique, in that the players are unique talents and teams are in unique situations. 

And again, a draft theory that requires other teams to be "suckers" or to reach wildly different conclusions that the public or your own scouts or to know less than your team does is simply a poor draft theory.

I'd also say this, if other teams DO think a Fields or Wilson is a FQB and we don't......Jets Fans might want to ask themselves why.  And how that reflects on us.  I'm not as impressed as you are with the Adams trade, it was obvious Adams had to go (great haul there tho, I will admit).  And I'm not as impressed with the trade downs that resulted in Mims.  He easily could have lost out, that was luck, not skill.  Maybe he has "ice" whatever that means in this context, or maybe he didn't really get much out of all that trade downs, given what his mid-rounders produced this year (mostly nothing).

In any event, if you want to emotionally invest in the idea (as many now are), just like folks did for the T.L. #1 pick, have fun.  Ultimately it's your disappointment, not mine.  Being a pragmatic realist is great, on so many fronts, really.

But on draft day, if and when the life-altering magic "huge haul of picks" trade-down(s) doesn't happen, I hope folks can please keep the whining and wailing to a minimum, as well as the threads J.D. Burning in Effigy for "failing to do what was easy". 

That's all I'm asking for.  

I can understand your point Warfish.  That is why I think, if we are trading down, the better way is to FULLY trust JD's ability and let him making multiple trades as I suggest in my post (which I don't think you would have seen).

If he moves down one spot with Cincy, he picks up a second.  If he moves down another 2-3 spots, he picks up a couple more picks.  Rather than trying to get a gigantic haul from one team (which is less and less likely to happen, given the results in the past), he could turn one pick into 4-5 with multiple trades.  Keep sliding down the board ever so slightly until he feels he is at the point where he has to go with the person he wants.  

[CanadaSteve]

23 minutes ago, bitonti said:

There is nothing in jd 2020 draft class that promotes the idea he's talented at finding awesome mid Rd draft picks. 

Look at the class without green glasses. They are all missed time or on IR and the 4th Rd picks never or hardly saw the field 

Brandon Mann was his best pick 

JD is batting the same or worse than every other gm 

two pro-bowlers in Mekhi Becton and Braden Mann

Two potential starters in Denzel Mims and Bryce Hall

Two wait and sees in Lamical Perrine and Ashtyn Davis

A doubtful in Jabari Zuniga

Two unknowns in James Morgan and Cameron Clark.

That is better than average Bit.  You hit on 50 percent of your picks consistently, you are in the top ten GM's of the league.  JD is not in the top ten....not even close yet.  He has 2-3 more drafts, and he will be garnering those kind of accolades. 

Putting all your eggs in one basket has, historically, worked far less often than it has worked.  For every 'can't miss' prospect who is a perennial pro-bowler, 5 more are onto their careers after football already.  

[Warfish]

Rather than reply to multiple posters, I'll just do one "summary" post:

1. I am not opposed in concept to a trade down.  

2. JD has no track record of making quality mid-round picks as yet, keep that in mind.  Beyond Becton, Mims and lolMann, our draft class of 2020 is weak (so far).

3. I don't see Cincy moving up to our spot at this point, us even offering says to them that we don't want Sewell.  And I don't see anyone else moving up from further away for Sewell due to cost.

4. Reminder, only a few teams have 2x #1 picks.  So any trade down is for a 2nd or 3rd, not another 1st Rounder in 2020.  Not sure that's worth losing out on an elite O-lineman prospect.

5. We'll see when it comes to QB options.  It's not my opinion that Sam sucks, every single metric proves Sam sucks...so far.  If JD thinks more highly of Sam, then that makes me very much question JD's evaluation of Sam, and QB's in general.  

6. With that said, if the "other" QB's are indeed the 2B options many think, I AM fine with spending another year with Sam....IF we invest in the Offense around him.  My preference today remains, Sewell at #2, Etienne and a WR at the Seattle pick and our own top-of-2nd round pick (in whatever order is needed/appropriate).  Or maybe Trask at QB, perhaps, if he falls to late 1st/2nd. 

7. I do not want to trade down from great prospects to get multiple meh prospects.  I appreciate we are talent deficient, but getting 8 versions of David and Clark doesn't make us better than getting one version of Sewell.

8. Presume very other team has all the same knowledge and info as we do.  Because they do.

9. If the 2B QB's ARE much better......we must consider one.  

10. I just don't want to hear whining about it if we don't trade down, frankly.  I am sick of whiny Jets Fans crying rivers of tears over T.L. as it is.  It's sad and sickening and it's annoying, like having a forum full of petulant 6 year old babies.  Theorize all you like, just remember, you're not JD.  Don't get whiny when he doesn't actually pull off your brilliant 8 team trade down theory, lol.

[Jetster]

29 minutes ago, GREENBEAN said:

I only threw that part in as an also piece. Not the main object.  Im confident you knew that but still wanted to mention it. 

The thing Im impressed with is a GM who seems to understand more than his own board. The tendencies of the other teams and what they are likely to do when considering a trade. The fact that he traded down, added 3 picks and still got Mims  actually happened. If he missed we can have the discussion about how smart or stupid it was. But it worked and I feel strongly that JD and his staff had more in mind than just he trade as a singular item.  Thats the stuff that excites me. Not trades for trades sake. But when the trade has layers. 

I see that all over the place with JD. Ie: using the same 6th rd pick to grab both Hairston and WIlson. (don't love the players but I love the mindset and move)  Ie: Grabbing his 6th back from the pats that he gave them for Thomas essentially getting him for free for a season. 

I have a theory I'm confident in with the Jamal trade as well which makes it much more impressive and falls right in line with what I've seen from JD.  It's good. LEt me know if you want to hear i some time  

So while I don't detach from much of what you said, I choose to be a critical homer. Pragmatism is fine and my emotional attachment to this team hovers around 20% of what it used to.  I'm fine with that but I study this stuff in a way that most don't. Not that I'm better than anyone. I think that statement supports the opposite actually lol 

But I think he will trade back. Not because a trade back is the fun thing to do, but because the OT doesn't have the same value to us as a G like Wyatt Davis or whoever.  It's not hard when people know what they are doing and have the relationship and respect of others in the know. 

Let's see what JD is doing with all of the late rd picks he's acquired.  I see more layers.  Won't you join me in my love of layers sir ? 

But what if he completes skill positions at WR & TE in free agency & drafts both Sewell & Wyatt Davis? So he didn’t have to give Thuney 15 million? Huh, huh? ?. 
He’s going after YOUNG free agents to build this team over the next 3 years. If he drafted Sewell & Davis with his 1st 2 picks & added a young Center like Josh Myers at the top of the 3rd? and then cut Fant he could probably build a Super Oline more cheaply & surround a QB with awesome skill players everywhere including a Najee Harris type in the backfield. 
It all comes down to Darnold, are they through with him or are they going 1 more year to see if the switch goes on surrounded by a talented group of Skill players & an awesome Oline to protect him & create a great running game with more play action? 
Does any defense go for our play action? I’d say no, he seems to get sacked 75% on play action. Teams don’t fear our running game one bit!

[CanadaSteve]

2 hours ago, Warfish said:

Rather than reply to multiple posters, I'll just do one "summary" post:

1. I am not opposed in concept to a trade down.  

2. JD has no track record of making quality mid-round picks as yet, keep that in mind.  Beyond Becton, Mims and lolMann, our draft class of 2020 is weak (so far).

3. I don't see Cincy moving up to our spot at this point, us even offering says to them that we don't want Sewell.  And I don't see anyone else moving up from further away for Sewell due to cost.

4. Reminder, only a few teams have 2x #1 picks.  So any trade down is for a 2nd or 3rd, not another 1st Rounder in 2020.  Not sure that's worth losing out on an elite O-lineman prospect.

5. We'll see when it comes to QB options.  It's not my opinion that Sam sucks, every single metric proves Sam sucks...so far.  If JD thinks more highly of Sam, then that makes me very much question JD's evaluation of Sam, and QB's in general.  

6. With that said, if the "other" QB's are indeed the 2B options many think, I AM fine with spending another year with Sam....IF we invest in the Offense around him.  My preference today remains, Sewell at #2, Etienne and a WR at the Seattle pick and our own top-of-2nd round pick (in whatever order is needed/appropriate).  Or maybe Trask at QB, perhaps, if he falls to late 1st/2nd. 

7. I do not want to trade down from great prospects to get multiple meh prospects.  I appreciate we are talent deficient, but getting 8 versions of David and Clark doesn't make us better than getting one version of Sewell.

8. Presume very other team has all the same knowledge and info as we do.  Because they do.

9. If the 2B QB's ARE much better......we must consider one.  

10. I just don't want to hear whining about it if we don't trade down, frankly.  I am sick of whiny Jets Fans crying rivers of tears over T.L. as it is.  It's sad and sickening and it's annoying, like having a forum full of petulant 6 year old babies.  Theorize all you like, just remember, you're not JD.  Don't get whiny when he doesn't actually pull off your brilliant 8 team trade down theory, lol.

2. They are mid-round picks.  You cannot expect picks in the 3rd, 4th and 5th round to be pro-bowlers.  It is an unrealistic expectation.  Davis has been okay, Zuniga not so much, and Morgan we don't know.  Again, I don't understand the focus on mid-round picks.  Roughly 70 percent of all players drafted never play more than 3-4 years.  There are going to be mid-round picks that fail.  Now, if in four years of drafting none of the 'mid-round' picks are not playing, then we have a problem....Unless of course all our 1st and 2nd round picks are starting, and we are getting contributions from 6th and 7th round picks consistently. 

3.  Cincy would move up to take Sewell if they thought another team wanted to move up and take it.  That is where the poker skills of a GM come in.

7.  Again, we just spent a premium pick last year on a LT....It seems counter-intuitive to your point to then take the second over all pick to draft another LT.  Sure, you can move one of them to RT.  But why not actually draft a RT with the second first pick and use the 2nd overall to either create multiple picks or pick either a top QB prospect, an Edge rusher, or a WR?

Another factor is a lot of people are presuming we will take a QB, when in fact we might go a complete different direction, which might work better:  We build a solid team and THEN get a QB, rather than presuming a QB first will bring us to the promise land.  Some of the better QB's in the league all came into a situation much better than most 1st round QB's move into.  Perhaps that is a better strategy, to either get a new QB starting with a bunch of talent in front of them rather than presuming the QB alone can make everyone around him a pro-bowler.  There seems to be VERY few of that type of QB.

[bitonti]

2 hours ago, CanadaSteve said:

two pro-bowlers in Mekhi Becton and Braden Mann

Two potential starters in Denzel Mims and Bryce Hall

Two wait and sees in Lamical Perrine and Ashtyn Davis

A doubtful in Jabari Zuniga

Two unknowns in James Morgan and Cameron Clark.

That is better than average Bit.  You hit on 50 percent of your picks consistently, you are in the top ten GM's of the league.  JD is not in the top ten....not even close yet.  He has 2-3 more drafts, and he will be garnering those kind of accolades. 

Putting all your eggs in one basket has, historically, worked far less often than it has worked.  For every 'can't miss' prospect who is a perennial pro-bowler, 5 more are onto their careers after football already.  

He's hit on Becton and Mann 

The rest are we'll see 

History has the Orlando pace draft, the rg3 trade, the Hershel walker trade, the Ricky Williams trade and most times the trade down players turn out less successful than the name part of the deal 

 

The best trade down I've seen was the colts taking Nelson at 6. And that's more because of the quality of Nelson than the trade down as an institution 

Sewell is a better prospect than Nelson, if they pass on him to trade down it would be another poor decision 

 

[CanadaSteve]

3 hours ago, bitonti said:

He's hit on Becton and Mann 

The rest are we'll see 

History has the Orlando pace draft, the rg3 trade, the Hershel walker trade, the Ricky Williams trade and most times the trade down players turn out less successful than the name part of the deal 

 

The best trade down I've seen was the colts taking Nelson at 6. And that's more because of the quality of Nelson than the trade down as an institution 

Sewell is a better prospect than Nelson, if they pass on him to trade down it would be another poor decision 

 

I will agree to disagree with you, but we won't be able to judge that for a bit.

Again, I don't understand why we can't have cautious optimism.  Since when have we had a GM hit on the first two picks in rounds 1 and 2, and have hope in other picks?  You can't expect any GM to find 6 starters in one draft.  

[GREENBEAN]

On 12/27/2020 at 12:02 PM, Jetster said:

But what if he completes skill positions at WR & TE in free agency & drafts both Sewell & Wyatt Davis? So he didn’t have to give Thuney 15 million? Huh, huh? ?. 
He’s going after YOUNG free agents to build this team over the next 3 years. If he drafted Sewell & Davis with his 1st 2 picks & added a young Center like Josh Myers at the top of the 3rd? and then cut Fant he could probably build a Super Oline more cheaply & surround a QB with awesome skill players everywhere including a Najee Harris type in the backfield. 
It all comes down to Darnold, are they through with him or are they going 1 more year to see if the switch goes on surrounded by a talented group of Skill players & an awesome Oline to protect him & create a great running game with more play action? 
Does any defense go for our play action? I’d say no, he seems to get sacked 75% on play action. Teams don’t fear our running game one bit!

Not a bad tact to take there. I'm all about it. So you grab Chris Godwin or Allen Robinson at the WR position and maybe an Edge like Yannick or maybe Judon so you can push them down the lane a bit in the draft and concentrate on OL. 

The problem there is Sam. I honestly believe it's more beneficial to give a new HC a fresh QB to develop and build with rather than handing the New HC the frst priority of fixing a damaged QB who may or may not ever come out of he dark.  It's just not smart.  Now if the new HC says. I WANT SAM DARNOLD!!!  Then ok. Fine.  But I doubt it and I think grabbing a QB with our top pick is the smart move.  Fields, Wilson at #2.  Trade back to #5 and shoot for Lance??  Whoever JD and the new HC want is fine by me but that takes a bite out of what you're saying.  

But we can grab Wilson at #2. Davis at 28(or whatever)  and grab  Cosmi or Water little etc with the seattle first.  then grab Lindstrom or linderbaum in the 2nd.  Either way I like it.  Not having to sincerely worry that JD is gonna take a DT like Christian Barmore is it's own luxury.  

[Losmeister]

Anybody even THINKING of "build around Sam"

this was from 2019. dont even maske go to THIS year. pukeworthy sh*t.

 

 

[Charlie Brown]

JD can trade down because he took James Morgan for a reason.  

Don’t forget Morgan was one of the best developmental QBs in the draft last year he was a surprize pick for most out here but again JD picked Morgan for a reason. JD is not making foolish moves he may make a mistake but he didn’t pick Morgan by chance. 

And keeping Sam gives Morgan two more years to develop.  
 

Like it

 

[LIJetsFan]

On 12/27/2020 at 10:36 AM, Jetster said:

Sewell is a freaking mean azz beast! Some people think his frame can get to a freakish 375 no problem! This team has had no identity since Rex gave us some swagger back in 2009/2010. It seems to be an unusual direction but I believe it's only because not many teams have even been in the position to have 2 super athletic, ridiculously strong & agile tackles like Becton + Sewell! Build the team & drop a QB in there. There is no doubt with 100 million dollars that JD is coming out of free agency with either Robinson- Juju- or Godwin! Immediately that's the best WR group we've had since Edwards- Holmes- Cotchery! And MUCH YOUNGER! 

We are definitely in the zone with Seattle & the #33 pick to add even more firepower, i.e. Harris or Etienne, or Devonta Smith or Deshon Moore, or Tarrace Marshall? 

Lets just beat the f*ck out of the front 7s in our division! 

I've been more of a trade back fan but this post has me rethinking that.  

[LIJetsFan]

1 hour ago, Charlie Brown said:

JD can trade down because he took James Morgan for a reason.  

Don’t forget Morgan was one of the best developmental QBs in the draft last year he was a surprize pick for most out here but again JD picked Morgan for a reason. JD is not making foolish moves he may make a mistake but he didn’t pick Morgan by chance. 

And keeping Sam gives Morgan two more years to develop.  
 

Like it

 

I don't want to extend Sam but otherwise, good post.  If Morgan does become a potential starter then JD is genius.  If not, no real harm in trying with a 4th (regardless of what other posters here say about who they rather have had).

[Jetster]

2 hours ago, LIJetsFan said:

I've been more of a trade back fan but this post has me rethinking that.  

Sewell has a mean streak & that Samoan blood. Jets were a running machine with in 2009/2010 and Dbrick was a far better pass protector than smash mouth in the run game & Damien Woody was pretty much at the end of his career. 

You put two young monsters at each tackle spot, sign Thuney (he was 25 yards downfield vs the Bills the other night seeking someone to take their head off), an above average Center & draft Wyatt Davis for your RG & you have 4 years of possibly the best Oline in the NFL. 

When is enough, enough with draft picks? We have 9 this year & 9 next year? It's who you take with those draft picks. We incorporated 4 players already & Davis got hurt but he's definitely in the plans of our secondary. Hall looks like a player, Becton, Mims, you have your punter in Mann, Guidry is fighting to be part of the team Bless Austin (2019) looks like a tweener Nickel/dime hybrid CB/Safety, McGovern is under contract, Perine ran very hard & TY Johnson give us RB/2/3. 

We need a Center, and a better Guard, we need pass rushers, and we need to upgrade the WR position with a #1 veteran WR, we need a #1 CB and we need a TE. We also need a bell cow RB. 9 draft picks, close to 100 million to fill 5/6 empty positions. WR? Allen Robinso/Juju/Godwin, Pass Rusher? Dupree/Judson/Ngokeou, Guard? Thuney, Center? Lindsey/first 3rd rounder (Josh Myers?), CB & TE are huge question marks & probably the toughest for us to fill but maybe we can get by with Eifert/Ertz on a 1 year contract? 

And 9 draft picks in 2022 to finish this thing including 2 more 1sts. I think you take can't miss prospects drafting that high, does anyone think the Rams or Seahawks ever regretted drafting Orlando Pace or Walter Jones? 

[LIJetsFan]

Jetster, nice to see you're back in form.  another good post above ^

[Larz]

On 12/26/2020 at 9:01 AM, bitonti said:

Becton is 27th ranked tackle by pff with a grade around 75

Sewell 2019 season is the highest ranked offensive lineman in pff history with a grade around 95 

However good Becton played this year, Sewell is noticeably better. His coach said that Sewell has the frame to play at 375

This kid is a star and any trade down scenario neglects that this team needs stars worse than anything 

 

Ironic as the last big trade down missed out on Orlando pace 

[Jetster]

59 minutes ago, Larz said:

Ironic as the last big trade down missed out on Orlando pace 

I’m sorry but I know Sam leaves the pocket to soon but we had 3 series in the 2nd half where we couldn’t run & Sam got pressured all 3 times & we punted. It was phantom pressure it was quick REAL pressure! 
JD is not moving back unless he gets a trade he can’t refuse! He’s already got 9 picks & 3 in the top 34! 

[SomebodytoAnybody47]

On 12/27/2020 at 11:25 AM, bitonti said:

Sewell is the leadership player this team lost when they traded 33

Becton is awesome on the field he's also quiet and peculiar off it.

Sam Darnold has some of the worst body language when they are losing 

Sewell is more of a ray Lewis you have to play well or he will be pissed kind of player 

The Jets need someone in the locker room who gives a damn and has the talent to make a difference. 

All that leadership lead us to so many wins. 

[BleedinGreenNC]

On 12/26/2020 at 6:40 AM, Philc1 said:

You can’t simply trade down at will.  You need a trading partner which means some dumb gm out there with assets has to be in love with Justin Fields

I think San Fran would be willing to pay a hefty price to move up to #2