Daniel Jeremiah first mock is out

[Paradis]

25 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

The nerds have been hitting the head on these guys for a while. Forget minor updates to something like QBASE every year for a second: A prospect like Allen comes out the same probability every time, and he should. A guy like Mahomes comes out the same thing every time, and he should. Allen had a 1 in 3 chance of not busting. You don't take that at 3. Watson was about 10 points less. Mahomes was less than 50/50 at busting and something like a 1 in 4 shot he became upper tier. Nobody listened. Don't blame the media because you schlemiels are obsessed with Mel Kiper.

You had me at Schlemiel

[RedBeardedSavage]

4 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

Tons of stuff on this out there. Coaching matters and teammates matter. Nobody out there has ever argued otherwise and for some reason this seems to be the primary strawman fans defer to. Everything in statistics is posited on probability and what the most likely situation is. Time and time again, player after player, the most likely answer is a pretty simple one: If a guy is good, he'll eventually be good. If he's not, he won't be. Usually by the end of year 3. 

Understood. 

I'll look for some statistical analyses of 'landing spot' and bust rate on my own. If you happen to come across something, let me know.

Obviously I'm thinking about Darnold in all of this. But even more importantly, is whether or not we should even take another quarterback prospect high until we improve the situation - hopefully a year from now. 

[JustInFudge]

9 minutes ago, Paradis said:

Regarding the rolling with Sam scenario -- i think we have to appreciate that IF....IF JD was going to draft Fields (for example) there's no incentive to show his hand right now. Every PR person would be screaming "talk up Darnold..." until he's traded or the pick is -- play possum. At least until april. 

Otherwise you've talking about countless questions thrown at the organization about Sam

It's less about the chatter and more about a gut feeling...

[Paradis]

4 minutes ago, JiF said:

It's less about the chatter and more about a gut feeling...

I would agree with your gut. But... never know. 

Besides the question of “how do we climb back up next year in the draft” I don’t care nearly as much about who plays QB next year. They better have a plan by 2022 but right now I’m ok to let the roster building play out. 

[RutgersJetFan]

12 minutes ago, RedBeardedSavage said:

Understood. 

I'll look for some statistical analyses of 'landing spot' and bust rate on my own. If you happen to come across something, let me know.

Obviously I'm thinking about Darnold in all of this. But even more importantly, is whether or not we should even take another quarterback prospect high until we improve the situation - hopefully a year from now. 

It's not overly complicated stuff. Deshaun Watson puts up a career year in DYAR and DVOA yet the team is 4-12. Is it possible that Patrick Mahomes is as good as he is because of where he landed? Sure. But what's more likely? That or the possibility that the guy is just a really ******* good football player?

[T0mShane]

1 hour ago, RutgersJetFan said:

The nerds have been hitting the head on these guys for a while. Forget minor updates to something like QBASE every year for a second: A prospect like Allen comes out the same probability every time, and he should. A guy like Mahomes comes out the same thing every time, and he should. Allen had a 1 in 3 chance of not busting. You don't take that at 3. Watson was about 10 points less. Mahomes was less than 50/50 at busting and something like a 1 in 4 shot he became upper tier. Nobody listened. Don't blame the media because you schlemiels are obsessed with Mel Kiper.

Also worth noting: Sure, guys like Watson and Darnold were within each other's margins, and to the average layman that translates to eye test derp stuff. But if people can understand the basic logistics behind the odds of a coin flip, I'm not sure why understanding 50% odds for both those guys is so hard to comprehend either. Minimizing risk based on stratified criteria doesn't mean people don't know sh*t. Quite the opposite, actually.

I feel like this is a savage attack against me but I’m not entirely sure.

[RedBeardedSavage]

28 minutes ago, RutgersJetFan said:

It's not overly complicated stuff. Deshaun Watson puts up a career year in DYAR and DVOA yet the team is 4-12. Is it possible that Patrick Mahomes is as good as he is because of where he landed? Sure. But what's more likely? That or the possibility that the guy is just a really ******* good football player?

Clearly the circumstances are different between Mahomes and Watson - and it's more than just the roster, it's the entire culture/organization. 

I'm happy to go get Watson, even considering our deficiencies elsewhere, and pay the premium. But that's because I've seen him succeed in the NFL. And obviously Mahomes has ridiculous arm talent not seen since Favre, maybe Vick.

It's taking the jump from the collegiate to pro game, and the development aspect I'm more curious about. If I'm Joe Douglas this offseason, and the Watson trade doesn't materialize, I'm trying to understand how best to find and develop my next quarterback. How much am I weighing the talent of the prospect versus the situation I'm putting that prospect into? 

That's where I'm at thinking about this problem and I need more information, both on the prospects available, and how quickly I can improve the situation around him.

Right now, excluding the Watson trade, I'm currently not enamored with the QB choices at pick 2 and understand we've got a lot of work to do to improve the situation. I'm leaning towards punting on that position until next year. But we're still early into this offseason.

[maury77]

2 hours ago, kdels62 said:

Hard disagree on Wilson’s throw power. You can’t point out one throw and claim it shows his whole ability. In particular that back shoulder throw you mention is thrown perfectly to give his WR who is well covered to get the ball. Fields’s guy is wide open against a Michigan CB while Wilson throws his guy open against a Boise CB. Fields doesn’t lack an arm but Wilson has special arm strength and accuracy. 

That's fine, we can disagree. I think Wilson grows a very tight spiral which makes his arm appear stronger than it actually is. I can dig up more examples, but the first post took me literally an hour to put together and, frankly, I don't have the energy.

[maury77]

3 hours ago, Paradis said:

Orrrrrr, you're operating with an archaic/dated notion of developed. The reason why (logic would suggest) we call them pro-style offenses... is because they were used often in the pros. So there was obviously a high correlation between having exposure in those system and being successful

what it doesn't mean;

• just having played in a pro-I doesn't mean you're more developed. Definitely not by todays standards.
• There is no more correlation. The "pro-style" offense having anything to do with predictable success in the NFL is not statistically significant. None of the top QBs were developed in pro-Os
• You're championing the QB coach's weekend seminar in cedar rapids as a predictor of success... Which inherently suggests developed. Otherwise you're saying winning QBs may or may not be developed -- and if so then what the hell does it matter. 
•  

I haven't watched enough Lance to make any declarations, and honestly, don't care to get too proud with QBs. it's most inexact science of evaluation sometimes... what makes me think Fields will do better right now? My eye balls. They're on when i watch the game. You don't need a team of coaches breaking down all-22 all the time to make an/every assessment. Fields is further along with playing competitive football. 

If you want to take the time to walk me through why Fields vs Clemson was "meh" and Lance looking like Hackenberg vs Central Arkansas was a total aberration  - you might win me over. 

@sec101row23 @JiF am i crazy? help me out, maybe I am that ignorant. 

*edit just saw you're "fck you fck you,  you're cool, i'm out" post.... teach me the way. 

I keep missing your posts because you switched your avatar, can you go back to Pettigrew?

[maury77]

Here is a good video of Schofield breaking down Fields

 

[Paradis]

21 minutes ago, maury77 said:

That's fine, we can disagree. I think Wilson grows a very tight spiral which makes his arm appear stronger than it actually is. I can dig up more examples, but the first post took me literally an hour to put together and, frankly, I don't have the energy.

And very fine post it was. I appreciated the read! 

[RutgersJetFan]

1 hour ago, T0mShane said:

I feel like this is a savage attack against me but I’m not entirely sure.

My sweet Brick. 

[maury77]

2 hours ago, Paradis said:

And very fine post it was. I appreciated the read! 

LOL, you actually went back to Pettigrew. In fairness to you, Saleh played TE in college as well. 

[maury77]

2 hours ago, RutgersJetFan said:

My sweet Brick. 

I love lamp

[Paradis]

22 minutes ago, maury77 said:

LOL, you actually went back to Pettigrew

it feels like home, you know?

[Jimmy 2 Times]

On 1/25/2021 at 5:17 PM, SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN said:

How many more years are we going to rebuild ? I want to win a bowl before I'm in a wheelchair .

Winning's over rated.  Look at all the people that jumped off the Cub's bandwagon.

From lovable losers with infinite patience to demanding entitled crybabies (like us).

[SAM SAM HE'S OUR MAN]

15 hours ago, Jimmy 2 Times said:

Winning's over rated.