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NFL.com "State of the Franchise" - 2021 Jets


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Not sure this guy has been on a NY Jets fan board lately. He seems to be talking to a minority of Jets fan. Most Jets fans are fully onboard the Wilson bandwagon and don’t really think about Lawrence. Even less are thinking about what could have been with Lamb.

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Here’s another one, good read:

That starts with second overall pick Zach Wilson, who will assuredly be the opening day starter if for no other reason than the rest of the quarterback room is bare. If you feel like the Jets have been looking for a quarterback forever, you're not entirely wrong; the last New York passer to put up multiple seasons of positive DVOA was Chad Pennington in the mid-2000s. But now there's a shiny new passer in town, who will definitely turn things around, unlike Sam Darnold. Or Christian Hackenberg. Or Geno Smith. Or Mark Sanchez.

OK, so Jets fans have reasons to be skeptical of a shiny new passer coming in to save the day. And it's fair if that skepticism is backed by the fact that we only saw one really great season from Wilson in college, in the midst of a slapped-together schedule in thanks to the pandemic; his 2019 season was derailed by injuries and he was still fairly raw as a true freshman in 2018. In addition, Jets fans may still hold a residual grudge against Adam Gase for winning just enough games to cost them the first overall pick and Trevor Lawrence, with Wilson feeling like something of a consolation prize.

However, Lawrence and Wilson come out with nearly identical QBASE projections, and Wilson dwarfs the five other quarterbacks the Jets have picked in the top 100 since 2004. Lawrence's track record made him the safer pick, but Wilson's success last year wasn't just about facing inferior competition. Wilson had the best deep ball of the draft class, he's exceptionally accurate to all areas of the field, and his creativity on the move has drawn comparisons to Patrick Mahomes. Obviously, that's a massively unfair standard to hold Wilson to, and he's not a perfect prospect—his processing prowess in his progressions perhaps pale parallel to other premium players—but Jets fans should be excited with their new passer.

Shanahan-style coaches—including LaFleur's older brother in Green Bay—typically look for their quarterbacks to utilize play-action and be effective when on the move with bootlegs and rollouts and things of that nature. Wilson checks those boxes, throwing 19 touchdowns and no interceptions on play-action last season; he was good for one or two 20-plus-yard bombs per game off of play-action. When off-platform, his arm strength and improvisational skills allow him to make explosive splash plays without putting the ball in harm's way. He should be an ideal fit for what LaFleur plans to do.

All that being said, we would expect Wilson to struggle some, especially early in the year. He was rarely pressured at BYU, with quite a few games ending up with him basically playing seven-on-seven drills and picking apart defenses. He also has a bit of the Favreian gunslingerness to his game and sometimes overtrusts his arm strength in a way that might get him into trouble against NFL defenses. Watching him adjust to the speed of the pro game and handling how quick the pocket can collapse when you're not playing Western Kentucky will be key to his short-term development.

At the skill positions, the Jets' offense will be based around speed mismatches and spacing. In the passing game, the 49ers love giving the ball quickly to athletic players in space. Deebo Samuel led all qualified players in YAC+ last season, with George Kittle and Jeff Wilson each finishing in the top three at their positions as well. Part of this was aided by San Francisco's heavy use of 21 personnel, trying to get opposing defenses to put that third linebacker on the field and then challenging those slower players to keep up with their receivers. The Jets won't run much 21 personnel; they do not have a fullback. Instead, they'll probably look more like Mike's brother's offense in Green Bay, substituting more two-tight end sets to try get the same effect. Chris Herndon's role should increase; he'll be asked to be a more physical player than he has in recent years, and we might see Trevon Wesco as a Kyle Juszcyzk substitute.

However the Jets manage to get their big guys onto the field, they'll be providing space for what's probably the most upgraded receiving corps in the league. They're still lacking a true No. 1, but both Corey Davis and Keelan Cole have been versatile players throughout their careers, and second-round pick Elijah Moore's exceptional athleticism (a 4.35s 40-yard dash and 6.67s 3-cone drill tell the story) has already been turning heads during OTAs and minicamp. Add in the useful Jamison Crowder returning to the fold and you have a massive improvement over the Breshad Perrimans and Braxton Berrioses of the world. And that's not including fourth-round pick Michael Carter, who had one of the top receiving indexes in our BackCAST projections, or Tevin Coleman, who has three top-10 receiving DVOA seasons in Shanahan-style offenses. Sam Darnold never got the benefit of a receiving corps of this quality.

And then there's the offensive line. While trading up for an interior player such as first-round pick Alijah Vera-Tucker is a bad use of resources, he's a great fit for the outside zone-heavy scheme that LaFleur and Benton will be bringing with them. Vera-Tucker did a lot of outside zone-blocking at USC to great effect. San Francisco's system generally asks for lighter, athletic linemen, because they're asked to move laterally more than most other systems, even other outside zone situations. Vera-Tucker fits that model, with strong results in all the various shuttle and jump drills during his pro day. He'll be fine pulling and trapping and finding moving targets in space. Put next to last year's first round pick Mekhi Becton, who also has plenty of outside zone experience from college, and the Jets look to have a very solid left side of their line. They also have to start three other linemen, but one step at a time.

The Jets are obviously a massive work in progress. Our projections have them once again as the worst team in the league. Everything we've talked about here is a matter of potential or projections or possibilities, and sometimes those simply do not come true. The secondary is likely to be atrocious, and too much for the defensive line to overcome even if they're used to their maximum potential. There's no evidence yet that Saleh will be an effective head coach; not all coordinators step in and succeed off the bat. Rookies flop, offensive lines crumble, regimes fall. The best-case scenario—Wilson immediately stepping in as a quality quarterback, and Saleh's scheme resulting in a Wade Phillips-esque first-year turnaround—still might not be enough to have the Jets sniffing double-digit wins. We're being charitable with some of our descriptions above because we're talking about how pieces might work or could work. Some of them won't and will need to be replaced next year.

But even if the Jets are once again battling for the top pick in the draft, they can at least feel more positive about the direction the team is going in. After a year of patiently (or impatiently) waiting for Adam Gase to get fired, New York fans can at least feel like their team has a plan towards eventually being competitive again. It won't be in 2021, but a season without such a crushing sense of despair might just do for now.

 

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We are still owned and run by Woodrow Johnson.

Until we are convinced that he will allow Douglas and Saleh to run the team, there is no reason to believe we will be anything more than OK long term.

Below is the Jets of the Johnson regime.  I assume it's NOT much better if we look at the last 10 years.

The Jets are 23-57 over the last five seasons, which is the worst record in the NFL over that span. They have five wins or fewer in four of the last five seasons. The Jets and Bengals are the only teams without a .500-or-better season since 2016 (both last finished .500 or better in 2015). Nobody is expecting a miracle here.

 

 

 

 

 

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18 minutes ago, Matt39 said:

The Jets are obviously a massive work in progress. Our projections have them once again as the worst team in the league. Everything we've talked about here is a matter of potential or projections or possibilities, and sometimes those simply do not come true. The secondary is likely to be atrocious, and too much for the defensive line to overcome even if they're used to their maximum potential. There's no evidence yet that Saleh will be an effective head coach; not all coordinators step in and succeed off the bat. Rookies flop, offensive lines crumble, regimes fall. The best-case scenario—Wilson immediately stepping in as a quality quarterback, and Saleh's scheme resulting in a Wade Phillips-esque first-year turnaround—still might not be enough to have the Jets sniffing double-digit wins. We're being charitable with some of our descriptions above because we're talking about how pieces might work or could work. Some of them won't and will need to be replaced next year.

But even if the Jets are once again battling for the top pick in the draft, they can at least feel more positive about the direction the team is going in. After a year of patiently (or impatiently) waiting for Adam Gase to get fired, New York fans can at least feel like their team has a plan towards eventually being competitive again. It won't be in 2021, but a season without such a crushing sense of despair might just do for now.

 

This guy has the Jets as the worst team in the league this upcoming season, and has the Jets battling for the top pick in the draft.  

I realize that this Jets team will not be going to the playoffs this year, but give me a break with the "doom and gloom" attitude.  

The Jets of 2021 will not be the Jets of 2020.  I don't believe any fan who follows this team believes that we will be battling for the top pick in the draft again this year.  The Jets may not be beating the Bills or the Buccaneers this year, but as far as I am concerned, everything else is on the table.

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17 minutes ago, southparkcpa said:

We are still owned and run by Woodrow Johnson.

Until we are convinced that he will allow Douglas and Saleh to run the team, there is no reason to believe we will be anything more than OK long term.

Below is the Jets of the Johnson regime.  I assume it's NOT much better if we look at the last 10 years.

The Jets are 23-57 over the last five seasons, which is the worst record in the NFL over that span. They have five wins or fewer in four of the last five seasons. The Jets and Bengals are the only teams without a .500-or-better season since 2016 (both last finished .500 or better in 2015). Nobody is expecting a miracle here.

 

 

 

 

 

i think if ever the indications have been that JD makes the calls on all football matters.

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1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

https://www.nfl.com/news/state-of-the-2021-new-york-jets-robert-saleh-zach-wilson-bring-fresh-buzz

State of the 2021 New York Jets: Robert Saleh, Zach Wilson bring fresh buzz

Published: Jul 19, 2021 at 07:06 AM
 

Headshot_Author_Adam Rank_2019_png

Adam Rank

NFL.com Writer

 
Where does your franchise stand heading into 2021? Adam Rank sets the table by providing a State of the Franchise look at all 32 teams, zeroing in on the key figures to watch and setting the stakes for the season to come.
 

Members of the Jets organization, Jets fans around the world and those who are ready to style their hair like Zach Wilson:

The New York Jets are coming off one of the lowest points in the history of this proud franchise. And I know that you didn't get the quarterback you thought you were going to get after you started last season 0-13. But there is a new coach in town. And a new quarterback, too. I know these are familiar themes for the Jets, a franchise that seems like it's starting over every few years. But this really feels like the start of something special.

How the Jets got here

Let's take a quick look back at the highs and lows of the 2020 season.

The high:

  • Beating the Rams in Week 15 for their first win of the season. Hey, there are no guarantees in life. When you put on those shoulder pads, you are doing so with the intent -- as Herm Edwards once put it -- to win the game. You play to win the game.

The low:

  • Beating the Rams and then the Browns the next week. I know you can't tell a group of players – including many who might not even be on the team next year -- that losing is the best possible outcome. You just can't. But I can just imagine the dismay Jets fans felt -- after suffering through most of two seasons of the Adam Gase era -- when their team won enough games to ensure they would not be in position to draft the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck.

2021 VIPs

Head coach: Robert Saleh. I feel like I could spend a lot of time trying to do a deep dive into what went into the Jets' decision to hire Adam Gase two years ago. But let's not do that, mostly because I really do believe the Jets nailed it with the hiring of Saleh. Keeping tabs on him in San Francisco for the past few years has been like watching a guy develop to the point that you knew he was going to be a big star. Like Stone Cold Steve Austin before he was King of the Ring and launched Austin 3:16. Saleh was part of rebuilding the 49ers' defense into one of the league's best over the last couple of years.

And as my colleague Ian Rapoport mentioned back in January, the Jets wanted a clear leader as their head coach. Somebody who could lead this franchise. That was never going to be the former guy. They moved quickly to talk to Saleh, and Saleh clearly wanted this gig. If I'm being honest, this is one of the most desirable jobs in the NFL. The Jets had the No. 2 overall pick in this year's draft. There was already some talent on the roster. And if you win with the Jets, you'll be beloved forever. I love this fit. Saleh is a high-energy, confident leader who is going to play well in New York.

Quarterback: Zach Wilson. The Jets obviously lost out on Trevor Lawrence, who went to the Jags first overall, and many fans will talk about that forever. But there was no wavering during the draft process -- Wilson was the Jets' guy. While the 49ers were perceived as the wild card who could go any number of ways at No. 3 overall, it feels like the Jets were locked in on Wilson from the jump at No. 2. He is the fifth quarterback the Jets have drafted in the first or second round since 2009. And I could sit here and list those quarterbacks now, but why do we have to talk about old (stuff)?

Wilson had 33 touchdowns and just three interceptions last season for BYU, which was the best TD-to-INT ratio in the FBS in 2020. He was electric every time you turned on the television. You can understand why the Jets were so quick to fall in love with him.

Projected 2021 MVP: Wilson. I know it's kind of tough to pin it all on a rookie quarterback. But really, it's up to him. The defense could be pretty good. (And we'll talk about the defense in just a minute.) But Jets quarterbacks rank last in the NFL in completion percentage (59.2), passing yards per game (189.0), TD-to-INT ratio (53:49) and passer rating (76.5) since 2018. While Wilson is expected to develop into a dynamic playmaker down the road, even being just a plus-level game-manager as a rookie would give this team a huge boost.

2021 breakout star: John Franklin-Myers, defensive end. Franklin-Myers played really well last season. And if it weren't for the fact that the Jets, you know, weren't very good, he likely would have received more buzz. But he's playing for a defensive-minded head coach now. The Jets made some nice additions to the D in the offseason, and they are getting C.J. Mosley back (again, we'll talk about this more in a moment) after he opted out of last season. So this could be a huge year for Franklin-Myers.

New face to know: Corey Davis, wide receiver. Davis had a career-high 984 receiving yards and five touchdown receptions for the Titans last year. And when you see a former early first-round draft pick who was widely considered a borderline bust for most of his career, then finally came through in the last season of his rookie contract, well, you have to sign him. At least, the Jets do. Sorry, that was mean. To make it up to you, I will point out that the only receivers to average more yards per route run (minimum 200 routes) than Davis in 2020 were Pro Bowl selectees Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson and A.J. Brown, per Next Gen Stats. If Davis can be a consistent deep threat for Wilson, then you really have something here. Jets QBs had a completion rate of 28.1 percent on deep pass attempts last season (ranking 29th in the NFL). But Wilson completed 62.5 percent of his deep passes in 2020 and had 12 touchdowns on such throws last season.

2021 roadmap

The competitive urgency index is: LOW. The Jets are 23-57 over the last five seasons, which is the worst record in the NFL over that span. They have five wins or fewer in four of the last five seasons. The Jets and Bengals are the only teams without a .500-or-better season since 2016 (both last finished .500 or better in 2015). Nobody is expecting a miracle here.

Three key dates:

  • Week 1 at Carolina Panthers. That awkward moment when you hit the town with your new bae, only to run into your ex, who is going to be starting for a new team.
  • Week 7 at New England Patriots. The Jets will host the Patriots in Week 2. But the first trip to Foxborough should be something special for Wilson.
  • Week 16 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars. Well, at least Trevor Lawrence will play one game at MetLife Stadium this season. I will completely understand if you don't want to tune in for this game. Or maybe Wilson will out-play Lawrence, and you can feel great about your franchise. Because that sounds like something that would happen for Jets fans.

Will the Jets be able to …

Score some points? The Jets averaged 15.2 points per game in 2020, the fewest in the NFL. They scored fewer than 20 points in 10 of their 16 games (most in the NFL). And they were one of five teams with 16 or fewer passing touchdowns in 2020. This is why general manager Joe Douglas has used all five of his first- and second-round picks on offense over the last two years. New offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur spent the last seven seasons on Kyle Shanahan's coaching staff, so expect LaFleur to use outside-zone run concepts on plenty of play-action dropbacks. Wilson had a perfect passer rating on play-action passes that used outside-zone run concepts last year at BYU, according to Pro Football Focus.

Get anything out of C.J. Mosley? The Jets made a big investment in Mosley in 2019. Thus far, that signing has kind of been like buying a Peloton: an impulse purchase you made with the best of intentions, but which just ends up sitting there in the spare room with a bunch of clothes hanging from it. Mosley played in two games in 2019, missing the other 14 with a groin injury. He opted out of last season, citing family health concerns. But now Mosley is back, and he's earning glowing reviews from teammates and coaches. He's re-joining a team that brought in Carl Lawson and Sheldon Rankins this offseason. I think this Jets defense has a chance to be pretty good. Keep in mind that the 49ers' defense ranked in the top five in 2019 (second) and 2020 (fifth) under Saleh. The 49ers allowed the fewest total yards per game (298.1) and passing yards per game (188.6) in the NFL from 2019 to 2020.

And while we're talking about defense, the secondary is going to be the biggest concern. The Jets allowed 28.6 points per game last year, the third-most in a single season in franchise history. They were bad in many metrics. Here's one that stands out: The Jets allowed an open target on 49.7 percent of pass attempts in 2020 (the fifth-highest rate in the league), per Next Gen Stats. Part of the reason for that? Well, the Jets are the only team in the NFL without a cornerback on their current roster that was drafted before the fifth round. That's by the Jets or any other franchise. I know, that's wild. Kind of explains a lot, though. Maybe next year, Douglas can use all five of the picks he has in the first three rounds on corners.

Run the football? The Jets ranked in the bottom 10 in rushing yards per game (105.2) and yards per carry (4.2) last season. They were one of two teams with fewer than 10 rushing touchdowns. And their leading rusher was Frank Gore, who is currently a 38-year-old free agent. But they did sign Tevin Coleman this offseason (because of course they did). And some fantasy analyst is going to try to convince you to draft Coleman this year because of his familiarity with Mike LaFleur's Shanahan-like system. Don't fall for that. Because we love fourth-round pick Michael Carter. He was one of four players drafted in 2021 who had at least 1,500 scrimmage yards in 2020. Carter averaged 8.0 yards per carry in 2020. EIGHT! He also averaged 4.5 yards per carry after contact in 2020. I mean, Gore averaged a total of 3.5 yards per carry last year.

One storyline …

... people are overlooking: The Jets' long-term quarterback woes. Or maybe it's just the content creators for other social media sites that love to illustrate the lack of proficiency from the Chicago Bears over the years while ignoring the Jets. The Bears get beaten up in graphics because they've never had a 4,000-yard passer. The Jets haven't had a 4,000-yard passer since Joe Namath in 1967. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the only quarterback in club history with 30-plus touchdown passes in a season (2015). And the last Jets quarterback with a passer rating above 100 was Chad Pennington in 2002 (104.2). Zach Wilson could become the best Jets quarterback since Namath by the end of the season.

... people are overlooking, Part II: The offensive line isn't bad. The Jets drafted left tackle Mekhi Becton in the first round last year, passing on the top receivers available. That includes CeeDee Lamb and Justin Jefferson. And before Jets fans get too sad, you all know you would have ended up drafting Henry Ruggs III anyway, so don't do that to yourself. Besides, Becton was pretty good last year as a rookie despite some injuries. He's currently ranked among the top 30 OTs in the game by PFF, which is good. The Jets also traded up in the first round this year to draft Alijah Vera-Tucker, who allowed only one sack and seven pressures at guard for USC in 2019. And they signed veteran Morgan Moses to a one-year deal last month as kind of a stopgap at right tackle.

... people are overlooking, Part III: The Jets were good against the run last season. The Jets allowed just 4.0 yards per carry in the in 2020 (ranking seventh in the NFL). They gave up 112.0 rushing yards per game (12th) and 16 rushing touchdowns (tied for 14th).

... people are overthinking: Who will be the No. 1 wide receiver? Instead of worrying about that, focus on how this could be a low-key good receiver corps. Jamison Crowder leads the team in scrimmage yards and touchdowns since 2018. Then you have Corey Davis, Elijah Moore, Keelan Cole and Denzel Mims. Moore, a second-round pick this year, led the FBS in receptions per game (10.8), receiving yards per game (149.1) and first-down receptions per game (5.9) in his final season at Ole Miss.

For 2021 to be a success, the Jets MUST:

  • Have Wilson establish that he's a good quarterback. And be competitive. The Jets finished with their second-worst record in club history (2-14) last year. Only the Rich Kotite disaster of 1-15 in 1996 was worse. Kotite -- like Adam Gase -- was a retread, so maybe stop doing that. The Jets' 0-13 start in 2020 was the worst in team history. Winning five or six games in 2021 would be a good sign.

In closing

I know that you're going to end up lamenting the Trevor Lawrence thing for quite some time. But why not celebrate the one who didn't get away? You got the coach you desperately needed. And if Wilson ends up being as good as the Jets' front office expects him to be, you could be on the cusp of something special.

Follow Adam Rank on Twitter.

did we get we needed in sala

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26 minutes ago, Alka said:

This guy has the Jets as the worst team in the league this upcoming season, and has the Jets battling for the top pick in the draft.  

I realize that this Jets team will not be going to the playoffs this year, but give me a break with the "doom and gloom" attitude.  

The Jets of 2021 will not be the Jets of 2020.  I don't believe any fan who follows this team believes that we will be battling for the top pick in the draft again this year.  The Jets may not be beating the Bills or the Buccaneers this year, but as far as I am concerned, everything else is on the table.

Honestly, I see them as about a 5-11 team next year. 

I'm fine with that, as long as, Rookies actually play, the younger players show improvement, Saleh actually looks like he belongs as an NFL coach, and the team plays hard and competes. 

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36 minutes ago, Alka said:

This guy has the Jets as the worst team in the league this upcoming season, and has the Jets battling for the top pick in the draft.  

I realize that this Jets team will not be going to the playoffs this year, but give me a break with the "doom and gloom" attitude.  

The Jets of 2021 will not be the Jets of 2020.  I don't believe any fan who follows this team believes that we will be battling for the top pick in the draft again this year.  The Jets may not be beating the Bills or the Buccaneers this year, but as far as I am concerned, everything else is on the table.

Right now- who would you say the Jets are certainly better than?

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1 hour ago, southparkcpa said:

I assume you skipped lunch when the green Kool Aid was served???   :)

 

Ha. I’m optimistic this is getting turned around and I think Douglas and company did a much better job this draft than lasts. But you’re gonna need Wilson to be great out of the gate and a lot of other rookies or question  marks  to exceed expectations for the Jets to be competitive this year.

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9 hours ago, Jetsfan80 said:

h

In closing

I know that you're going to end up lamenting the Trevor Lawrence thing for quite some time. But why not celebrate the one who didn't get away? You got the coach you desperately needed. And if Wilson ends up being as good as the Jets' front office expects him to be, you could be on the cusp of something special.

Follow Adam Rank on Twitter.

I am not lamenting that at all. I think Wilson is a better prospect.

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17 hours ago, Matt39 said:

Right now- who would you say the Jets are certainly better than?

Any article on what will happen in this next season is based upon 2021, not 2020.

It is an opinion of the team for the upcoming year.  Every team in a "work in progress", which means that based upon the changes of each club, people give their opinion of where the team is going, and where they will end up.

Right now, I view the 2021 Jets team much differently than I did the 2020 team.  

As to your question as to who the Jets are better than, I would answer that whoever is a better team than the Jets, are today not as much better a team than the Jets were in 2020.  The gap is closing on  paper at least, and this season will be a time to prove it, or not prove it.

My prediction is that the Jets will be in most football games, and their win total will go up significantly from 2 of last year.  Significantly enough that the Jets will not be vying for the #1 pick in the draft, as the article I mentioned said they would be.  Or that the Jets would be the worst team in the league.  I don't believe that.  

What is it that you believe.  I say the Jets will get 8 wins this year.  What is your prediction?  Put is out there, so that we can come back to it and see just how smart you are.  If you predict the Jets at 5 wins or better, than you must believe that the Jets are better than at least 5 teams.  What say you?

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19 hours ago, Matt39 said:

Here’s another one, good read:

That starts with second overall pick Zach Wilson, who will assuredly be the opening day starter if for no other reason than the rest of the quarterback room is bare. If you feel like the Jets have been looking for a quarterback forever, you're not entirely wrong; the last New York passer to put up multiple seasons of positive DVOA was Chad Pennington in the mid-2000s. But now there's a shiny new passer in town, who will definitely turn things around, unlike Sam Darnold. Or Christian Hackenberg. Or Geno Smith. Or Mark Sanchez.

OK, so Jets fans have reasons to be skeptical of a shiny new passer coming in to save the day. And it's fair if that skepticism is backed by the fact that we only saw one really great season from Wilson in college, in the midst of a slapped-together schedule in thanks to the pandemic; his 2019 season was derailed by injuries and he was still fairly raw as a true freshman in 2018. In addition, Jets fans may still hold a residual grudge against Adam Gase for winning just enough games to cost them the first overall pick and Trevor Lawrence, with Wilson feeling like something of a consolation prize.

However, Lawrence and Wilson come out with nearly identical QBASE projections, and Wilson dwarfs the five other quarterbacks the Jets have picked in the top 100 since 2004. Lawrence's track record made him the safer pick, but Wilson's success last year wasn't just about facing inferior competition. Wilson had the best deep ball of the draft class, he's exceptionally accurate to all areas of the field, and his creativity on the move has drawn comparisons to Patrick Mahomes. Obviously, that's a massively unfair standard to hold Wilson to, and he's not a perfect prospect—his processing prowess in his progressions perhaps pale parallel to other premium players—but Jets fans should be excited with their new passer.

Shanahan-style coaches—including LaFleur's older brother in Green Bay—typically look for their quarterbacks to utilize play-action and be effective when on the move with bootlegs and rollouts and things of that nature. Wilson checks those boxes, throwing 19 touchdowns and no interceptions on play-action last season; he was good for one or two 20-plus-yard bombs per game off of play-action. When off-platform, his arm strength and improvisational skills allow him to make explosive splash plays without putting the ball in harm's way. He should be an ideal fit for what LaFleur plans to do.

All that being said, we would expect Wilson to struggle some, especially early in the year. He was rarely pressured at BYU, with quite a few games ending up with him basically playing seven-on-seven drills and picking apart defenses. He also has a bit of the Favreian gunslingerness to his game and sometimes overtrusts his arm strength in a way that might get him into trouble against NFL defenses. Watching him adjust to the speed of the pro game and handling how quick the pocket can collapse when you're not playing Western Kentucky will be key to his short-term development.

At the skill positions, the Jets' offense will be based around speed mismatches and spacing. In the passing game, the 49ers love giving the ball quickly to athletic players in space. Deebo Samuel led all qualified players in YAC+ last season, with George Kittle and Jeff Wilson each finishing in the top three at their positions as well. Part of this was aided by San Francisco's heavy use of 21 personnel, trying to get opposing defenses to put that third linebacker on the field and then challenging those slower players to keep up with their receivers. The Jets won't run much 21 personnel; they do not have a fullback. Instead, they'll probably look more like Mike's brother's offense in Green Bay, substituting more two-tight end sets to try get the same effect. Chris Herndon's role should increase; he'll be asked to be a more physical player than he has in recent years, and we might see Trevon Wesco as a Kyle Juszcyzk substitute.

However the Jets manage to get their big guys onto the field, they'll be providing space for what's probably the most upgraded receiving corps in the league. They're still lacking a true No. 1, but both Corey Davis and Keelan Cole have been versatile players throughout their careers, and second-round pick Elijah Moore's exceptional athleticism (a 4.35s 40-yard dash and 6.67s 3-cone drill tell the story) has already been turning heads during OTAs and minicamp. Add in the useful Jamison Crowder returning to the fold and you have a massive improvement over the Breshad Perrimans and Braxton Berrioses of the world. And that's not including fourth-round pick Michael Carter, who had one of the top receiving indexes in our BackCAST projections, or Tevin Coleman, who has three top-10 receiving DVOA seasons in Shanahan-style offenses. Sam Darnold never got the benefit of a receiving corps of this quality.

And then there's the offensive line. While trading up for an interior player such as first-round pick Alijah Vera-Tucker is a bad use of resources, he's a great fit for the outside zone-heavy scheme that LaFleur and Benton will be bringing with them. Vera-Tucker did a lot of outside zone-blocking at USC to great effect. San Francisco's system generally asks for lighter, athletic linemen, because they're asked to move laterally more than most other systems, even other outside zone situations. Vera-Tucker fits that model, with strong results in all the various shuttle and jump drills during his pro day. He'll be fine pulling and trapping and finding moving targets in space. Put next to last year's first round pick Mekhi Becton, who also has plenty of outside zone experience from college, and the Jets look to have a very solid left side of their line. They also have to start three other linemen, but one step at a time.

The Jets are obviously a massive work in progress. Our projections have them once again as the worst team in the league. Everything we've talked about here is a matter of potential or projections or possibilities, and sometimes those simply do not come true. The secondary is likely to be atrocious, and too much for the defensive line to overcome even if they're used to their maximum potential. There's no evidence yet that Saleh will be an effective head coach; not all coordinators step in and succeed off the bat. Rookies flop, offensive lines crumble, regimes fall. The best-case scenario—Wilson immediately stepping in as a quality quarterback, and Saleh's scheme resulting in a Wade Phillips-esque first-year turnaround—still might not be enough to have the Jets sniffing double-digit wins. We're being charitable with some of our descriptions above because we're talking about how pieces might work or could work. Some of them won't and will need to be replaced next year.

But even if the Jets are once again battling for the top pick in the draft, they can at least feel more positive about the direction the team is going in. After a year of patiently (or impatiently) waiting for Adam Gase to get fired, New York fans can at least feel like their team has a plan towards eventually being competitive again. It won't be in 2021, but a season without such a crushing sense of despair might just do for now.

 

Didn't even mention Denzel Mims.

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7 hours ago, Matt39 said:

Not getting the warm and fuzzies he’s relevant this year

Good point.  Reports seemed to be that he's looked kind of meh this Spring and early Summer when the Jets have had some OTA and mini-camps.  But, I think what's more likely happening is that Mims is being overshadowed by the fact the Jets added some really promising talent at WR.  Davis is the WR1 and was a big signing.  Former 1st rounder.  Elijah Moore is a 1st round talent that dropped to us, he's a true Swiss Army Knife kind of weapon (SF Deebo Samuel comparisons).  Keelan Cole is a sneaky good signing, the guy is fine if he's asked to step in as WR2.  I almost think Jerricho Cotchery when I see Cole.  And, the Jets brought back Crowder who has been this team's best WR for 3 years.  We've all been excited about Mims since he was drafted but when we think about all the other guys here I think we realize that even if Mims has a sophomore slump or doesn't assert himself the Jets have enough to be good at WR.

With all that said, IF Mims steps up and starts growing into a potential outside WR2 this year, demonstrates that his speed is dangerous, makes some big plays, etc. then.... look out!  The WR corps could become a strength on this team.

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