Jamal Adams Out Indefinitely

[Drums]

Didn’t Seattle’s secondary improve when Jamal was out? He’s doing them a favor. He’d be out there if it was a contract year but I think he’s just avoiding playing because he/they are not good. Dude is Conor McGregor but as a football player. 

[ZachEY]

20 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Even if this were true - “Worst logic” doesn’t make it the worst pick - he was good enough to net us an A+ guard prospect and a really good #1 WR prospect. The talent of the player alone I think renders the “worst pick” designation as a reach, IMO. 
 

Guys like Vernon Gholston couldn’t even play in the league. There is a fundamental difference there. 

I disagree.  Drafting is contextual.  And opportunity cost is huge in that context.

Zach Wilson could turn out to be a huge bust, but as long as Trey Lance isn't a superstar right behind him, it's not a terrible pick.  The Jets had a huge need at QB, and took the top prospect who had concerns and holes in his game, but didn't have any dealbreaker red flags that would say don't draft him.

Gholston was the top prospect who had the athleticism and production, including against the #1 overall pick, to justify his selection.  It didn't work out, but it wasn't a misguided pick.

[slimjasi]

Just now, ZachEY said:

I disagree.  Drafting is contextual.

Zach Wilson could turn out to be a huge bust, but as long as Trey Lance isn't a superstar right behind him, it's not a terrible pick.  The Jets had a huge need at QB, and took the top prospect who had concerns and holes in his game, but didn't have any dealbreaker red flags that would say don't draft him.

Gholston was the top prospect who had the athleticism and production, including against the #1 overall pick, to justify his selection.  It didn't work out, but it wasn't a misguided pick.

I agree that drafting is contextual - but the talent of the player taken is still a major factor. The jets have taken multiple guys in the top ten who legitimately couldn’t play in the league. You really can’t say that about Adams. 
 

I suspect you guys are letting your hard on for Adams cloud your judgement - leading to absurd arguments like an all-pro safety is the worst first round pick in thE history of the jets. 

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Agreed that process is important - but practically, I don’t see a realistic argument for a pro-bowl caliber player being the worst first round pick in franchise history. Certainly not for this franchise. Too many of our first rounders have failed to even become longtime starters. 

Because you're still conflating "good player" with "good pick".  A player can be good and still be a horrible pick.  A player can also be bad but still be a worthwhile shot.  If you analyze picks purely on whether they end up useful or not, you're going to end up firing good GM's and hiring bad ones.  

[Jetsfan80]

5 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I agree that drafting is contextual - but the talent of the player taken is still a major factor.

Well then the pick loses on that front too.  Jamal Adams wasn't that talented, especially not at things that matter in the NFL today.  The Seattle Seahawks learned that the hard way.  

Jamal Adams is the equivalent of being the world's best VCR repairman.  Mostly useless.  He's really good at tackling RB's and blitzing (but then getting hurt after blitzing too much).  Cool.  Too bad that skillset isn't sustainable.

[jgb]

21 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

 

If your GM doesn't have strong logic behind all of his picks, then he's a terrible GM and your team is screwed for as long as he's there.  It's why Mike Maccagnan was the worst GM in NFL history. 

Logic and process is EVERYTHING when it comes to the draft.  So I don't know why that's getting dismissed so easily in this thread.  It's how some of the same GM's tend to come away with so much premium talent in the draft over the years:  They have a good process.  It's not a simple luck of the draw.

And BAP is not "strong logic." It is a cop out, an admission by a GM that he's stuck. The GM's job is to match talent to scheme and need. Those are the musical elements from which a successful harmony is made.

BAP is like when a company buys back stock.... it can't think of anywhere better to invest the money...

[slimjasi]

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Because you're still conflating "good player" with "good pick".  A player can be good and still be a horrible pick.  A player can also be bad but still be a worthwhile shot.  If you analyze picks purely on whether they end up useful or not, you're going to end up firing good GM's and hiring bad ones.  

I’m not analyzing things  purely on whether they end up useful or not - I’m saying that BOTH the process and actual ability/usefulness of the player drafted matters. I’m not saying that Adams was a good pick - just clearly not the worst pick in franchise history. 
 

If anything, it seems like you are basing things SOLELY on process, instead of considering both process and result. I also think your hard on for Jamal is showing. 

[Jetsfan80]

Just now, jgb said:

And BAP is not "strong logic." It is a cop out, an admission by a GM that he's stuck. The GM's job is to match talent to scheme and need. Those are the musical elements from which a successful harmony is made.

It's like when a company buys back stock.... nowhere better to put the money...

And BAP also has to take premium positions into account.  If it doesn't it does more harm than good.

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I’m not analyzing things  purely on whether they end up useful or not - I’m saying that BOTH the process and actual ability/usefulness of the player drafted matters. I’m not saying that Adams was a good pick - just clearly not the worst pick in franchise history. 
 

If anything, it seems like you are basing things SOLELY on process, instead of the considering both process and result. I also think your hard on for Jamal is showing. 

I have a "hard on" because I was one of those complaining about the pick from the jump, because we knew it wouldn't move the needle for the franchise, and we passed up on players who COULD to make the pick.  

That's what made it so horrible at the time, and I stand by that today.  Time proved us correct.  So sue me for doubling down now that it's clear to the world just how overrated Adams is.  

As @jgb pointed out above, Maccagnan always went for the "single" when Homeruns were available.  And we missed out on a potential future HOF QB in the process, because of the presence of Christian Hackenberg. 

Adams was a "single".  Yeah, I guess he could have made an even worse pick if he'd taken a BAD Strong Safety at 6 overall.  But ultimately it doesn't matter.  That "single" crushed the franchise because of the opportunity cost we missed out on, as @ZachEY pointed out. 

Thank goodness Joe Douglas turned it into something positive several years later.  F**k Macc.  

[jgb]

3 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

And BAP also has to take premium positions into account.  If it doesn't it does more harm than good.

Yes and the more variables you introduce into BAP, the less BAP it becomes... and the more I like it.

[slimjasi]

4 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Well then the pick loses on that front too.  Jamal Adams wasn't that talented, especially not at things that matter in the NFL today.  The Seattle Seahawks learned that the hard way.  

Jamal Adams is the equivalent of being the world's best VCR repairman.  Mostly useless.  He's really good at tackling RB's and blitzing (but then getting hurt after blitzing too much).  Cool.  Too bad that skillset isn't sustainable.

He was talented enough to net us two really good prospects and be named to an all-pro team. 
 

by jets standards, I don’t see how that could possibly make him the worst 1st round pick in franchise history - I’d argue that he’s probably not even the worst first round pick we’ve had this century. 

[ZachEY]

13 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

The jets have taken multiple guys in the top ten who legitimately couldn’t play in the league. You really can’t say that about Adams. 

Can't you not?

13 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

I suspect you guys are letting your hard on for Adams cloud your judgement - leading to absurd arguments like an all-pro safety is the worst first round pick in thE history of the jets. 

Let me ask you a question, if a Wizard conjured himself in your home this moment, and said:

SLIMJASI, I AM ROGER GANDELL, THE NOT-SO GREAT.  I WILL GRANT YOU ONE REDRAFT.

I WILL TRANSPORT YOU BACK TO THE #6 PICK IN 2008

OR

I WILL TRANSPORT YOU BACK TO THE #51 PICK IN 2016

OR

I WILL TRANSPORT YOU BACK TO THE #6 PICK IN 2017

CHOOSE WISELY SLIMJASI!  I AM ROGER GANDELL!

Are you really telling me there's even a second's hesitation on which one you choose?

[slimjasi]

2 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

I have a "hard on" because I was one of those complaining about the pick from the jump, because we knew it wouldn't move the needle for the franchise, and we passed up on players who COULD to make the pick.  

That's what made it so horrible at the time, and I stand by that today.  Time proved us correct.  So sue me for doubling down now that it's clear to the world just how overrated Adams is.  

As @jgb pointed out above, Maccagnan always went for the "single" when Homeruns were available.  And we missed out on a potential future HOF QB in the process, because of the presence of Christian Hackenberg.  Adams was a "single".  Yeah, I guess he could have made an even worse pick if he'd taken a BAD Strong Safety at 6 overall.  But ultimately it doesn't matter.  That "single" crushed the franchise because of the opportunity cost we missed out on.

F**k Macc.  

You being generally right about the pick doesn’t mean he’s the worst first rounder in franchise history. There’s a huge jump there. 

[Jetsfan80]

4 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

He was talented enough to net us two really good prospects and be named to an all-pro team. 
 

by jets standards, I don’t see how that could possibly make him the worst 1st round pick in franchise history - I’d argue that he’s probably not even the worst first round pick we’ve had this century. 

OK, kindly f**k this argument.  I've already explained why its irrelevant to what we're discussing here.  No one knew there'd be a team dumb enough to trade for him 3 years later.  What some of us DID know at the time the pick was made was that it wouldn't make a difference for the franchise.  Even with his friggin All-Pro appearance.

In short, two 1sts and a 3rd three years later doesn't make up for missing out on Pat Mahomes or even a good WR like Mike Williams, who was taken 1 pick later.  And it doesn't somehow improve the pick in hindsight.

[Jetsfan80]

2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

You being generally right about the pick doesn’t mean he’s the worst first rounder in franchise history. There’s a huge jump there. 

OK.  Then explain how those other picks are worse.  I already made a case for Gholston being a better pick.  Then I admitted that Blair Thomas makes a legit case.

Your turn.  

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, ZachEY said:

Can't you not?

Let me ask you a question, if a Wizard conjured himself in your home this moment, and said:

SLIMJASI, I AM ROGER GANDELL, THE NOT-SO GREAT.  I WILL GRANT YOU ONE REDRAFT.

I WILL TRANSPORT YOU BACK TO THE #6 PICK IN 2008

OR

I WILL TRANSPORT YOU BACK TO THE #51 PICK IN 2016

OR

I WILL TRANSPORT YOU BACK TO THE #6 PICK IN 2017

CHOOSE WISELY SLIMJASI!  I AM ROGER GANDELL!

Are you really telling me there's even a second's hesitation on which one you choose?

i mean - again - arguing that Adams can’t play in the league is just silly. Posting a highlight of him getting burned doesn’t really change that reality.

I’d be legitimately curious to know what percentage of NFL GMs would consider Jamal Adams the worst pick in Jets history. 

 

 

[JetPotato]

You guys have absolutely no empathy. With a finger injury like this, this guy has to be in serious mental turmoil about what this means for his Twitter career.

[ZachEY]

Just now, slimjasi said:

i mean - again - arguing that Adams can’t play in the league is just silly. Posting a highlight of him getting burned doesn’t really change that reality.

I’d be legitimately curious to know what percentage of NFL GMs would consider Jamal Adams the worst pick in Jets history. 

 

 

ROGER GANDELL, THE NOT-SO GREAT awaits your response.

[slimjasi]

1 minute ago, Jetsfan80 said:

OK, f**k this argument.  I've explained why its irrelevant to what we're discussing here.  No one knew there'd be a team dumb enough to trade for him 3 years later.  What some of us DID know at the time the pick was made was that it wouldn't make a difference for the franchise.  Even with his friggin All-Pro appearance.

In short, two 1sts and a 3rd three years later doesn't make up for missing out on Pat Mahomes or even a good WR like Mike Williams, who was taken 1 pick later.  And it doesn't somehow improve the pick in hindsight.

It’s not irrelevant just because you say it is. 
 

sorry.

no one is saying that the Adams trade “makes up” for the pick - just that it probably means he isn’t the worst first round pick we’ve ever had. 

[slimjasi]

Just now, ZachEY said:

ROGER GANDELL, THE NOT-SO GREAT awaits your response.

Your question really isn’t as poignant as you think it is and it doesn’t make the “jamal Adams is the worst jets first round draft pick ever” argument any less absurd. 

[ZachEY]

5 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Your question really isn’t as poignant as you think it is and it doesn’t make the “jamal Adams is the worst jets first round draft pick ever” argument any less absurd. 

Ok, so I'm going to assume by twice passing on answering means you agree, you'd redraft 2017.

So, if it's the pick you'd most want a do-over on, how is that not the worst one?

And this isn't even being absurdist, and saying, "Well, I'd take Tom Brady #1 overall" which no one at the time was considering.  This is a move that would have been completely justifiable, in a situation where you needed a QB, and instead of going for the most important position on the field, you took, arguably, the least.

Would this be more tenable if we changed the word, worst first round draft pick to worst front office decision?

[Jetsfan80]

9 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

It’s not irrelevant just because you say it is. 
 

sorry.

no one is saying that the Adams trade “makes up” for the pick - just that it probably means he isn’t the worst first round pick we’ve ever had. 

It's not relevant just because you say it is, either.  

No GM ever makes a pick thinking "Oh man, I hope I can miss out on a franchise QB, get fired, and then watch as my successor gets two 1sts and a 3rd as a consolation prize 3 years later".  

And no reasonable person would consider that as part of the analysis.  That's absurd.

[slimjasi]

5 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

OK.  Then explain how those other picks are worse.  I already made a case for Gholston being a better pick.  Then I admitted that Blair Thomas makes a legit case.

Your turn.  

Those guys are both worse picks because they couldn’t contribute in the league. They weren’t longterm starters and netted the Jets nothing in the long run. 

Darron Lee and Dee Milliner were probably also worse picks. (Although I think Milliner could have been ok without the injury) 

The Jets have a LOT of awful first round draft picks over the years  - Johnny Lam Jones? O Brien over Marino? Kyle Brady over Warren Sapp with the fans screaming for Sapp on live TV? Lots to choose from.  Lot’s of guys who were much less productive and didn’t net us two first round picks. Hard to see how Adams is number 1 for me, friend. 

[ZachEY]

And by the way, taking this current position makes me wrong in a much more embarrassing way...

My immediate response to the pick in 2017 was, "Ok, he'll be a playmaker in the secondary while we Suck for Sam." (Or, perhaps preferably, Josh Rosen)

What I learned is you don't wait around on a college QB.  They have just as good a chance the following year of disappointing.  And you have just as good a chance of not having him be available.

Trading 4 picks for Sam Darnold gutted this team.

Same thing happened with Trevor Lawrence, frankly.  So much hype, and the guy isn't special - and I think that became clear his final college season, when everyone started to realize he was mostly just dumping it off to playmakers.

[jgb]

1 hour ago, Jetsfan80 said:

As @jgb pointed out above, Maccagnan always went for the "single" when Homeruns were available.  And we missed out on a potential future HOF QB in the process, because of the presence of Christian Hackenberg. 

At the risk of over-working the analogy, Macc drafted scared because he was petrified of striking out early in the draft. Leo Williams is a "hit" for him because he's a useful player. "Hey I took who many considered the best player in the draft and he's average or better. They can't criticize me for that!"

A GM needs to swing that bat as hard as he can and when he whiffs, get right back up there and swing his ass off the next time. This is why I think John Dorsey is very underrated. People don't like his personality -- he's a crusty old codger at best and a bona fide ahole at worst (read: not a "good boy"). But damn he has the courage of his convictions and is willing to go all in when he believes in a guy, pundits and media be damned.

 

[slimjasi]

6 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

Ok, so I'm going to assume by twice passing on answering means you agree, you'd redraft 2017.

So, if it's the pick you'd most want a do-over on, how is that not the worst one?

And this isn't even being absurdist, and saying, "Well, I'd take Tom Brady #1 overall" which no one at the time was considering.  This is a move that would have been completely justifiable, in a situation where you needed a QB, and instead of going for the most important position on the field, you took, arguably, the least.

Would this be more tenable if we changed the word, worst first round draft pick to worst front office decision?

You seem to be missing what I’m saying - you are picking two jets drafts out of a sea of of first round busts. 
 

the ultimate answer for me is that I’d draft Marino over Ken O Brien. 
 

the argument isn’t that Adams wasn’t a bad pick, it’s that Adams isn’t the worst pick in franchise history. And should either AVT or Garett Wilson (or both) turn into longterm successes here, that statement will only be more obvious with time, IMO.

it’s worth reiterating that the main reason we didn’t seriously consider Watson or Mahomes in 2017 is because of the Hack pick a year earlier AND because of the perceived strength of the 2018 QB class the following year. Macc’s big mistake is that he favored Hack/Darnold/Mayfield/Rosen over Watson/Mahomes. I think focusing on the Adams pick, in and of itself, is a bit short-sided. 

[slimjasi]

14 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

It's not relevant just because you say it is, either.  

No GM ever makes a pick thinking "Oh man, I hope I can miss out on a franchise QB, get fired, and then watch as my successor gets two 1sts and a 3rd as a consolation prize 3 years later".  

And no reasonable person would consider that as part of the analysis.  That's absurd.

Agree to disagree, I guess? 
 

I think if you aren’t really willing to consider what each player ultimately turned into, there is no point in having the discussion. 

[ZachEY]

1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

You seem to be missing what I’m saying 

No - I get it.

I'm just valuing not taking a super bowl winning, super bowl mvp, QB when your QBs are Josh McCown, Bryce Petty, and Christian Hackenberg, as a bigger blunder than any mitigation by the fact that some people think, or at least thought, that Jamal Adams is a worthwhile football player, makes up for.  And, far worse than needing a DE (Gholston) or a CB (Milliner) and taking the consensus best available one, and then that player not panning out.

I get it, I just treat opportunity cost in the draft as greater than finding a player who can play football.

The trade was the only good Jamal Adams contributed in his Jets career.  They didn't win when he was here - his play didn't get us any closer to winning - and that remains the goal.  Hopefully, the pieces that the Seahawks stupidly gave us, can help the Jets win football games.

[munchmemory]

17 hours ago, GREAT WHITE HYPE said:

Cutting strawberries?

I LOL'd.  

[jgb]

58 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

I disagree.  Drafting is contextual.  And opportunity cost is huge in that context.

Zach Wilson could turn out to be a huge bust, but as long as Trey Lance isn't a superstar right behind him, it's not a terrible pick.  The Jets had a huge need at QB, and took the top prospect who had concerns and holes in his game, but didn't have any dealbreaker red flags that would say don't draft him.

Gholston was the top prospect who had the athleticism and production, including against the #1 overall pick, to justify his selection.  It didn't work out, but it wasn't a misguided pick.

Most great negotiators "win" because they are able to quantify and internalize the opportunity cost while their opponent does not or does so poorly.

52 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

Because you're still conflating "good player" with "good pick".  A player can be good and still be a horrible pick.  A player can also be bad but still be a worthwhile shot.  If you analyze picks purely on whether they end up useful or not, you're going to end up firing good GM's and hiring bad lucky ones.  

One minor correction, with respect.

And luck... always disproves its own existence as sample sizes increase.

[slimjasi]

14 minutes ago, ZachEY said:

No - I get it.

I'm just valuing not taking a super bowl winning, super bowl mvp, QB when your QBs are Josh McCown, Bryce Petty, and Christian Hackenberg, as a bigger blunder than any mitigation by the fact that some people think, or at least thought, that Jamal Adams is a worthwhile football player, makes up for.  And, far worse than needing a DE (Gholston) or a CB (Milliner) and taking the consensus best available one, and then that player not panning out.

I get it, I just treat opportunity cost in the draft as greater than finding a player who can play football.

The trade was the only good Jamal Adams contributed in his Jets career.  They didn't win when he was here - his play didn't get us any closer to winning - and that remains the goal.  Hopefully, the pieces that the Seahawks stupidly gave us, can help the Jets win football games.

Time will tell how much of a "good" it ends up being, but in terms of stacking up to other Jets trades over the years, it's looking good early on. 

Where I do think we might agree is that the collective decision-making (primarily passing on the QBs in 2017 for the ones in 2016 and 2018) from 2016-2018 is as bad as any three year stretch in franchise history - but I don't boil it down to the Adams pick. I think there were three brutal picks in a row - Reaching for Hack in round 2 in 2016, taking Adams over Mahomes in 2017, and taking Darnold in 2018. 

As a big PSU fan, I was mad about the Hack pick on draft night and posted on here that he would be an epic bust. 

[ZachEY]

2 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Time will tell how much of a "good" it ends up being, but in terms of stacking up to other Jets trades over the years, it's looking good early on. 

Where I do think we might agree is that the collective decision-making (primarily  passing on the QBs in 2017 for the ones in 2016-2018)  from 2016-2018 is as bad as any three year stretch in franchise history - but I don't boil it down to the Adams pick. I think there were three brutal picks in a row - Reaching for Hack in round 2 in 2016, take Adams over Mahomes in 2017, and taking Darnold in 2018. 

As a big PSU fan, I was mad about the Hack pick on draft night and posted on here that he would be an epic bust. 

I think we generally agree, and are arguing over how we individually define "worst."

I'm more willing to ignore the player for the opportunity lost.  You look at some of the terrible picks in the past and say, we got nothing for that.

I still think we should probably settle this with a knife fight, though.

 

[Jetsfan80]

33 minutes ago, slimjasi said:

Agree to disagree, I guess? 
 

I think if you aren’t really willing to consider what each player ultimately turned into, there is no point in having the discussion. 

If you aren't willing to consider opportunity cost either, then there is no point in having the discussion.

[slimjasi]

12 minutes ago, Jetsfan80 said:

If you aren't willing to consider opportunity cost either, then there is no point in having the discussion.

But see - I am. I’m saying that the balance of opportunity cost and resulting player makes Adams a bad pick, but not the worst we’ve ever made. 

[CSNY]

1 minute ago, slimjasi said:

But see - I am. I’m saying that the balance of opportunity cost and resulting player makes Adams a bad pick, but not the worst we’ve ever made. 

Adams was worth more as a trade chip than he would ever have been as a player for the Jets