XM vs. Sirius - I chose Sirius

[The Gun Of Bavaria]

Smizzy I have you partially to thank. Between my friend in OKC with it and your testimony, I made the right choice.

After the 17 hr drive to Oklahoma City from Detroit I managed to very easily talk my wife into getting satellite radio. The problem is my wife loves it so much I might need a second unit for my car. Possibly one of the best inventions for adult drivers since the road hummer. I hereby have ZERO problem with the monthly fee for this service and knowing I'll get every NFL game and 40 NHL games a week on the thing is an added bonus.

I bought a 'portable' car unit for $78 at Wal-Mart and couldn't be happier. Comes off the window mount easily to hide when parked crime-ridden metro Detroit. Best part is it can easily be transferred between vehicles and if I can't get Sundays off this fall, will work out nicely inside my police car for the Jets games.

The only problem deciding what to listen to. It's hard to decide between the 80s channel, Area 63 the trance channel and of course, old school rap. I heard a Big Daddy Kane song yesterday I haven't heard since I was a kid. When that got old, which it never did, I tuned into the NFL channel.

Best purchase in years.

[spjets]

the wife and i were lookin at satelite this weekend too....i think were gonna go with serius too....

[The Gun Of Bavaria]

the wife and i were lookin at satelite this weekend too....i think were gonna go with serius too....

I thought hard about XM, which is also a little cheaper, but went with Surius. The NHL/NFL package helped put me over the edge towards Sirius.

[Maxman]

Howard Stern.

[The Gun Of Bavaria]

Howard Stern.

F Stern.

They're getting Martha Stewart!!

[spjets]

Howard Stern.

and the good thing is if you miss any of his show...its replayed all day...(xm does it too)..i think thats a great thing that satelite does..

[TaborJet]

Another reason for Sirius....Radio Margaritaville.

[Bugg]

You watch the NFL, but listen to baseball. Don't expect to be making many long drives on Sudany afternoons in the fall, so I really don't get why this is such a great thing. If you play roto, you can listen to any MLB team you want.

And O&A is much funnier and better than Stern, who's at this point a angry fossil.

Only complaint is that XM music stations play too much obscure 5th song on the album rather than what you want to hear. XM's equipment is also significantly smaller.

[The Gun Of Bavaria]

You watch the NFL, but listen to baseball. Don't expect to be making many long drives on Sudany afternoons in the fall, so I really don't get why this is such a great thing. If you play roto, you can listen to any MLB team you want.

And O&A is much funnier and better than Stern, who's at this point a angry fossil.

Only complaint is that XM music stations play too much obscure 5th song on the album rather than what you want to hear. XM's equipment is also significantly smaller.

Bugg I agree, in the end it's like Coke vs. Pepsi. Given my job however and never knowing what my days off are going to be for 6 months at a time, Sirius was the best option.

[haggis]

Sirius rocks.

Breuer Unleashed is hilarious. Weekdays 4-6 on RawDog.

Music:

Faction

Alt Nation

Boombox

Chill

Blues

Buzzsaw

My other presets are with Sports/News: ESPN, NFL and BBC.

[Smizzy]

Sirius radio rules...I listen to it all day at work and all night at home.

I bought the house and the car unit and it plays evry radio i own.

Simply awesome.

All 55 preseason games....every regular season game...Kids songs for my sons....it's the sh*t.

[SlugORama99]

I'm with you Bugg. I've had XM since October, mainly because of O & A. I live in NY, so I'll be able to listen to Jets games on the radio no matter what...which makes the NFL package expendable to me. I'm sure the music channels are fairly similar and it really comes down to the talk shows. I also like the fact that the XM units are smaller and they have the Myfi, which is the only portable unit of its kind.

[Smizzy]

I'm with you Bugg. I've had XM since October, mainly because of O & A. I live in NY, so I'll be able to listen to Jets games on the radio no matter what...which makes the NFL package expendable to me. I'm sure the music channels are fairly similar and it really comes down to the talk shows. I also like the fact that the XM units are smaller and they have the Myfi, which is the only portable unit of its kind.

Actually your wrong.

Sirius had a portable unit and the also have the smaller sportster too. They also have 45 minutes of recording time too now on the new units.

I personally can't stand talkshow hosts...i just want music with little talk and no commercials.

Sirius does it for me

[SlugORama99]

I beg to differ, Smizzy. I researched both companies before I made my decision and, at the time, XM was the only one that had a fully portable unit that you could listen to at home/work, in the car and when you were just walking around or at the gym or something. I've seen that Sirius has something similar, but it pales in comparison from what I can tell.

Either way, I'm glad that you're happy with your choice as I am as well.

[Smizzy]

I beg to differ, Smizzy. I researched both companies before I made my decision and, at the time, XM was the only one that had a fully portable unit that you could listen to at home/work, in the car and when you were just walking around or at the gym or something. I've seen that Sirius has something similar, but it pales in comparison from what I can tell.

Either way, I'm glad that you're happy with your choice as I am as well.

Define fully portable,lol.

the portable is a little bulky...but it is portable.

Im glad you are happy

[BlackLabelJetsFan]

Bringing this one back from the dead...

So with Howard Stern leaving KRock in NY, Im hearing they're going to be mostly talk, making the FM radio landscape in NY even more dreary if you're not into pop or hip-hop.

Im looking at XM vs. Sirius. Not really concerned about the sports channels - I'd rather watch games than listen. I hear XM has more subscribers. XM has O&A. Sirius has Stern soon. My musical tastes are basically hard rock/metal from the 70s to present. Id like to be able to turn it on and hear Sabbath, Priest, Maiden, Pantera, Slayer, GNR, older Metallica, BLS, and newer stuff (or at least stuff I haven't heard much of) like Brand New Sin, God Forbid, etc.

Any thoughts on whats better - XM or Sirius - given that info?

Also looking for a kit where I can listen in the car and take it into the house and listen. Im sure both have portable setups like that. Not so concerned with using it as a "walkman" but that might be nice.

[The Gun Of Bavaria]

Bringing this one back from the dead...

So with Howard Stern leaving KRock in NY, Im hearing they're going to be mostly talk, making the FM radio landscape in NY even more dreary if you're not into pop or hip-hop.

Im looking at XM vs. Sirius. Not really concerned about the sports channels - I'd rather watch games than listen. I hear XM has more subscribers. XM has O&A. Sirius has Stern soon. My musical tastes are basically hard rock/metal from the 70s to present. Id like to be able to turn it on and hear Sabbath, Priest, Maiden, Pantera, Slayer, GNR, older Metallica, BLS, and newer stuff, like Brand New Sin, God Forbid, etc.

Any thoughts on whats better - XM or Sirius - given that info?

BlackLabel,

As you know I have Sirius and in the end, it really doesn't matter when it comes down to musical content. I will tell u that from a music standpoint, I love Sirius. There are a trance, techno, old school rap, 80s, 90s, big hair and modern channel I can't keep off of. They play some great crap and have every genre covered in some way shape or form.

My friend has XM and he loves it as well. In the end musically speaking, they're both the same in my eyes. They even cost the same per month so the choice becomes the extras. O&A vs Stern. MLB vs NFL, etc.

I love my Sirius and I'm happy with my choice. That said I think XM is just as good.

[BlackLabelJetsFan]

BlackLabel,

As you know I have Sirius and in the end, it really doesn't matter when it comes down to musical content. I will tell u that from a music standpoint, I love Sirius. There are a trance, techno, old school rap, 80s, 90s, big hair and modern channel I can't keep off of. They play some great crap and have every genre covered in some way shape or form.

My friend has XM and he loves it as well. In the end musically speaking, they're both the same in my eyes. They even cost the same per month so the choice becomes the extras. O&A vs Stern. MLB vs NFL, etc.

I love my Sirius and I'm happy with my choice. That said I think XM is just as good.

Thanks GOB. Thats basically what I've been hearing from people I've talked to, everyone is happy with both and its the extras.

[Bugg]

I invented breathing Robin. Tell'em Fred! HOO HOO HOO!

O&A, every baseball game, and smaller easier equipemnt-I went XM. Best I can tell, as per my brother-in-law who has Sirius, there's not much difference in music.

Gotta to think that, antitrust considerations nothwithstanding, these companies will merge at some point in the distant future.

http://wershovenistpig.blogspot.com/2005/10/satellite-in-my-eyes-like-diamond-in.html

Satellite in my eyes, like a diamond in the sky, how I wonder...

Wednesday night, between innings, I quickly flipped by Cramer's Main Event II on CNBC. I would have stayed and watched some Mad Money, but baseball beckoned, and I had seen the first live Main Event and found it somewhat embarassing. He tries just a little too hard to ham it up in front of a live audience.

I digress. In those two minutes of avoiding Levitra commercials on Fox, a woman asked Cramer if she were nuts to invest 40% of her portfolio in Sirius on the run-up to Howard Stern's pending arrival on the network.

Cramer thankfully said yes.

But it got me thinking. And I came up with some questions; some hypothetical, some rhetorical, some downright answerable:

Is Sirius a trade worth considering?

Or is the better-run, higher-subscriber-base XM a better trade?

Are either of these stocks investible, as opposed to tradeable?

Should investors flee Viacom/Infinity Broadcasting?

Stern's over 50; Is 50 the new 30 or is Stern getting old?

What about Stern's recent ratings decline?

Will enough listeners follow him to Sirius?

Will the questionable talent that's replacing him on Infinity, Diamond David Lee Roth and Adam Carolla, drive more people to plunk down a monthly subscription to Karmazin?

First off, I checked out Morningstar's free analyst reports on SIRI and XMSR. They are both considered risky speculative stocks. Both received one-star ratings and were priced way above Morningstar's "fair value" and "consider buying" numbers. My guess is that speculative investors have long been involved with these stocks, and their inflated prices demonstrate it. Here's more evidence of Morningstar's wariness of satellite radio stock valuations:

Holding all of our other assumptions equal, XM would need about 33 million subscribers (50% more than our estimate) within 10 years to justify its recent stock price.

In our opinion, the subscriber growth necessary to justify Sirius' current stock price is highly unlikely. Holding all of our

other assumptions equal, Sirius would need close to 35 million subscribers (about 50% more than our estimate) within 10 years to justify this price.

These quotes should answer the question: Are either of these stocks investible, as opposed to tradeable?

No, neither SIRI nor XMSR seems like a prudent investment, but they could be tradeable.

Let's next look at the bulls and bears cases for each, again excerpted from Morningstar:

XMSR

Bulls Say

XM's subscriber growth has jumped from 1.3 million in December 2003

to 4.4 million in June 2005.

XM currently has factory-installation deals with companies that

encompass a larger share of the U.S. auto market than Sirius. XM's

factory-installation agreement with Toyota begins in the 2006 model

year.

XM is able to offer local weather and traffic to over 20 major radio

markets in the United States, invading terrestrial radio broadcasters'

turf.

Bears Say

At the company's recent stock price, XM's stock trades at over 25

times its 2004 sales.

In addition to substitutes for satellite radio, XM must compete with

Sirius for subscribers. This has the potential to further increase

programming, advertising, and customer acquisition expenses.

General Motors-related customers will become more expensive, as XM's

revenue-sharing agreement increases over time.

SIRI

Bulls Say

Factory-installation agreements with Ford and DaimlerChrysler,

presently less mature than XM's relationships with General Motors GM

and Honda HMC, should boost Sirius' subscriber growth over the next

several years.

Sirius' revenue-sharing agreements with its automakers are believed

to be less expensive than XM's agreement with General Motors.

Starting in 2006, Howard Stern, a dominant morning radio personality,

will be broadcasting exclusively on Sirius.

Bears Say

Sirius' stock recently traded at more than 100 times 2004 sales.

The chips used in XM's radio units are smaller and cheaper to

produce. This has allowed XM to sell smaller devices and has helped

keep XM's cost of adding subscribers lower than Sirius'.

In addition to competing with terrestrial radio and other substitute

products, Sirius must also compete with XM for new subscribers. This

has the potential to keep expenses for programming and advertising

higher than expected.

I'd like to think it comes down to baseball versus football. XMSR carries Major League Baseball, while SIRI carries the NFL.

Then again, perhaps deciding between the two satellite radio services should come down to one's shock jock preference. XMSR has Opie and Anthony. SIRI will have Howard.

Or what if you're a Ford man, or a Chevy kinda guy, or you've grown up preferring Japanese quality? SIRI is installed in Ford and Chrysler automobiles, while XMSR is found in GM, Honda, and next year, Toyota vehicles.

Did you notice that XMSR recently traded at 25 times its 2004 sales, while SIRI traded at 100 times its 2004 sales? You could pay less for sales and earnings with XMSR, or more for sales and earnings with SIRI.

I also think the approximate $6 per share price of SIRI attracts more speculation than the $28 per share price of XMSR, even though the market cap of SIRI ($8B) is quite a bit higher than XMSR ($6.25B).

I can pose a bunch of questions, and some either/or situations, and still not come up with a really satisfying answer. Choosing between the two is more a matter of preference.

I happen to prefer the Phils over the Iggles. O&A got me through some excruciating document review early in my legal career. I'll take a Honda over an American car, though the Hondas built in Ohio suit me just fine. And if I'm going to speculate, I'm going to take the satellite radio company with more subscribers and better sales figures. All this leads me to XMSR, over SIRI.

P.S., Here's an excerpt about Stern's recent ratings decline, as reported, sort of, at mediaweek.com: I just had to snarkily point out the beginning of the second paragraph, where the reporter basically gave up on figuring out why Howard's ratings declined, and settled on writing that they just did "for whatever reason".

Stern's Ratings Fall in Many Major Markets

October 24, 2005

By Katy Bachman

Howard Stern

[stormshadow19]

Stern's act is beyond played out. It used to be funny, but it's not so much, anymore. But, that's just what I think.

[isired]

we have sirius at work, breuer's show on raw dog is hysterical, and the old school rap station plays a song i thought i'd never hear again almost daily.

also, once you have an account, you can listen to sirius over the internet too (music stations only, for now anyway). not sure if you can do that ion XM or not.

[BlackLabelJetsFan]

Yeah, Ive been doing some research. With both Sirius and XM you can get the unit for the car as well as listen to MOST channels over the internet for no extra cost (I think), so I guess if you have broadband and good speakers, you wouldnt need a home unit or kit.

[The Gun Of Bavaria]

I have a Sirius Xact receiver in my car. I like it because it's small and portable, I can change it in and out of my Explorer, Wrangler and squad car at work. I have one antenna that I permanently (They're easy to move regardless) on the Explorer, and a spare one that I put velcro on to put in the windshield of my Jeep and squad car when I take the unit for the day. Instead of buying a 2nd one, the spare antenna makes the unit easy to put in any car. Sirius is having a sale, $30 off a unit (Mine pictued was roughly $78 at Walmart) with a 6 month subscription.

All I know is XM or Sirius, satellite radio rocks and terrestrial radio can kiss my ass.

[bitonti]

bold prediction - once stern goes to satellite the SIRI stock will top 10 bucks. Stern without censors the show will go ballistic. O & A are pretty good but Howard is the king.

[The Gun Of Bavaria]

bold prediction - once stern goes to satellite the SIRI stock will top 10 bucks. Stern without censors the show will go ballistic. O & A are pretty good but Howard is the king.

Solid call Matt. I hate Stern, but even I'm going to listen to him from time to time uncensored. I can ONLY imagine the stunts they'll pull.

[BlackLabelJetsFan]

Probably right, though the little Ive heard about the "new" O&A, I think I enjoyed O&A better when they were censored.

How creative is it to repeatedly say the F word? That's not a slam on them - I'm still a fan, but I heard their "best of" over the weekend and it wasn't markedly different other than the swearing.

I can see the same reaction to Stern. Unless he totally goes off the deep end and starts having rampant naked midgets, hookers, and sheep in the studio. But I don't think at this stage of his life/career that that scenario is a given.

[shawn306]

Stern's act is beyond played out. It used to be funny, but it's not so much, anymore. But, that's just what I think.

I think alot of that is because.

1) There is no more competition for him to ream on.

2) FCC Continues to hammer him at all costs

3) His divorce from his wife makes him just another run of the mill Hollywood honk.

O&A when they were on WNEW were Stern ripoffs but you know what they gave you the Stern stuff that we all loved back in the 80's and early 90's. Great comics like Breuer and Steven Lynch. There own little "Wack Pack" and they took things to the edge and eventually over it. Something Stern has not done in over 10 years.

Sorry but trying to figure out how much poop High Pitch Eric can push out in 24 hours is just not that funny. Give me Sex for Sam anyday.

[dickkotite]

Solid call Matt. I hate Stern, but even I'm going to listen to him from time to time uncensored. I can ONLY imagine the stunts they'll pull.

you got off on the wrong foot with stern. dont you know that he is beloved by NYPD? he always supports the cops.

[dickkotite]

I think alot of that is because.

1) There is no more competition for him to ream on.

2) FCC Continues to hammer him at all costs

3) His divorce from his wife makes him just another run of the mill Hollywood honk.

O&A when they were on WNEW were Stern ripoffs but you know what they gave you the Stern stuff that we all loved back in the 80's and early 90's. Great comics like Breuer and Steven Lynch. There own little "Wack Pack" and they took things to the edge and eventually over it. Something Stern has not done in over 10 years.

Sorry but trying to figure out how much poop High Pitch Eric can push out in 24 hours is just not that funny. Give me Sex for Sam anyday.

i dont know what you guys expect from him. if you want a overload of entertainment go to great adventure.

even when hes "bad" he is still funny. that show is like hanging out with a bunch of good old funny friends, it never goes out of style.

the irony, imo, is that he doesnt need curses and shock to be funny. he just is.and the high pitch eric thing is funny to me. what i never liked was the E show, where comedy was replaced by sluts. i have porn, if i want to see sex i cn anytime. when i want to laugh i want to hear robin goofing on bababooey

[stormshadow19]

I think alot of that is because.

1) There is no more competition for him to ream on.

2) FCC Continues to hammer him at all costs

3) His divorce from his wife makes him just another run of the mill Hollywood honk.

O&A when they were on WNEW were Stern ripoffs but you know what they gave you the Stern stuff that we all loved back in the 80's and early 90's. Great comics like Breuer and Steven Lynch. There own little "Wack Pack" and they took things to the edge and eventually over it. Something Stern has not done in over 10 years.

Sorry but trying to figure out how much poop High Pitch Eric can push out in 24 hours is just not that funny. Give me Sex for Sam anyday.

Nah, it's not that. It's just, in my opinion, his act has gotten old. I mean, I like sophmoric humor and all, but it gets old when you've been pulling the same crap for 20 years. It just doesn't intrest me. I used to like it. I just don't anymore. The bits are played out. And he's basically a condecending prick on the air. Nope, don't need to listen to an a$$hole on the air, thanks.

[shawn306]

i dont know what you guys expect from him. if you want a overload of entertainment go to great adventure.

even when hes "bad" he is still funny. that show is like hanging out with a bunch of good old funny friends, it never goes out of style.

the irony, imo, is that he doesnt need curses and shock to be funny. he just is.and the high pitch eric thing is funny to me. what i never liked was the E show, where comedy was replaced by sluts. i have porn, if i want to see sex i cn anytime. when i want to laugh i want to hear robin goofing on bababooey

I am one of those that have listened to Stern since is early days at NBC and I don't know something happened along the way.

His wars when he was at K-Rock with guys like Mark and Brian and the Greaseman down in DC were legendary and there was nothing better than Stern when he had on guys like Dice and Kinnison.

Maybe it was the underdog mentality that he was using to become the "King of All Media" but once he got to the mountain top what else was there for him to do. He has written books, done a movie on his life, what else ?

Maybe the move to Sirius will put the fire in the belly again. Hopefully it does (at least in my eyes) cause a motivated Stern is radio magic.

[Alk]

So I got the free trial of XM Radio Online. I've come to the conclusion that I am not meant for satellite radio. I tune into the Alternative "Hits" and I expect to recognize at least 75% of the songs being played. Yeah right, I listened for a half hour before I heard a song that I liked. Therefore I think I'll be saving my money for an IPOD. I can choose the music that I want to listen to and I don't have to pay a monthly fee for a bunch of music that I don't want to hear. Count me out of the satellite radio fad.

[stormshadow19]

Another thing, on the Stern thing. I thought this, this morning. Everyone tuned into him for one reason: to see what he'd say next. And, because it was AM broadcast radio, it was a taboo. Now, he's going to satelite radio, where there isn't a govenor. And the mystique will be gone. There aren't any rules to break. Stern was a rule breaker, and that's why everyone loves him. But, when there aren't any rules to break, it's not any fun.