jetscanes331 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Why Jets should fear Mike Wallace By KC Joyner ESPN Insider Darrelle Revis will have his hands full against Mike Wallace on Sunday. In his new "Historical Baseball Abstract," Bill James pondered if there was "any such thing as a hitter so good that it would make sense simply to walk him every time he came to the plate?" The obvious hitter who might fit this bill would be Babe Ruth, so James crunched the numbers. He ran two 1,000-game computer-simulated seasons in which a slightly improved 1921 version of Ruth was teamed up with a group of mediocre players. He then gave the computer two different sets of instructions regarding how to deal with the Bambino. In the first, the computer was ordered to walk Ruth every time he was at bat. In the second, the computer could pitch to him, except for those times when it would normally walk him. After running both scenarios through the process, the answer to the question was quite clear: Walking Ruth every time was a whole lot worse than pitching to him, both in runs scored and outs generated. James concluded that this study shows "there is no such thing as a hitter so good that he should be routinely walked." NFL offensive coordinators are of the same mindset when it comes to targeting dominant defensive backs. New York Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis saw this last season when he was targeted a league-leading 102 times, despite posting a phenomenally low 3.6 yards per attempt (YPA) total. The Steelers can take solace in that there are certain route types that work quite well against Revis. That means Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Bruce Arians will likely be looking to find ways to get the ball to vertical threat extraordinaire Mike Wallace, even if Revis is assigned to follow him around the field. Since Revis is playing exceptionally well of late (4.3 YPA since Week 9), it begs the question of how does one go about getting productivity out of a receiver when he is going to spend the day on Revis Island? It may seem like an impossible task, but a closer look at the game tapes and metrics shows that, if handled properly, life on that archipelago can be hospitable. The first key is to remember that even when the Jets focus Revis' efforts on taking the leading receiver on the opposing team out of the game, they often don't make this his sole assignment. A good example of this can be found in Sunday's AFC divisional matchup against the New England Patriots. Rex Ryan decided to send Revis after Deion Branch for most of the contest. All in all, Revis ended up opposite Branch on 52 out of the 73 plays Branch was on the field. That equates to a 71 percent coverage rate, which is a high number but is also the glass-half-empty way of viewing it. The glass-half-full perspective is that Branch was lined up opposite someone other than Revis 29 percent of the time. That number is even higher when one considers that Revis was on Branch on 33 out of 48 pass plays. That means Branch had someone else in coverage 31 percent of the time, which is a rate that offers ample opportunities for production away from Revis. A second fact to note is that in the Week 15 contest between Jets and Steelers, Revis was almost never assigned to cover Wallace: They did not square off in coverage on any of the 45 pass plays. On running plays, Wallace was on the field and lined up across from Revis only once. The reason Revis didn't face Wallace is that the Jets had decided to assign Antonio Cromartie to the Steelers speedster. This tactic was fairly effective, as Wallace gained only 32 yards on three targets (two completions) when facing Cromartie in coverage. The bad news is that, just as Revis didn't always follow Branch, Cromartie didn't always follow Wallace, and that is when New York got burned. Wallace was 5-for-5 for 70 yards on passes when he was allowed to run through a New York zone coverage. Tally the two together and it means Wallace was 7-for-8 for 102 yards, or 12.8 YPA in this matchup. That last number is a primary reason Ryan will probably approach this game differently than he did last time. Even if he does send Revis after Wallace, the Steelers can take solace in that there are certain route types that work quite well against Revis. Over the course of the season, Revis-covered receivers are 10-for-21 for 153 yards and two touchdowns on routes that cut to the inside (e.g. slant, post, skinny post, deep in, etc.). Some of that production came early in the season, but Revis still struggled late in the year against slants and skinny posts, as pass catchers were 4-for-5 for 54 yards on those routes against Revis since Week 8. If the 15-yard slant completion that was nullified by a penalty in the Week 9 game against Detroit is included, it would move that total up to 69 yards on six targets. Since Wallace is 6-for-10 for 117 yards on routes of that nature this year, it means he is adept at the one area where Revis has shown a historical propensity to give up yards. Put it all together and it likely means Wallace will post quality numbers even if his weekend travel plans include a stopover on Revis Island. Does his logic even make sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicious89x Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think it makes sense, but I recall their #3 killing us last game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetsman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I think it makes sense, but I recall their #3 killing us last game. yea Emmanuel Sanders did alot of damage in the last game , most of the time ben was hitting him or heath Miller. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetscanes331 Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 yea Emmanuel Sanders did alot of damage in the last game , most of the time ben was hitting him or heath Miller. If i'm not mistaken heath didn't play last game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetsman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 If i'm not mistaken heath didn't play last game? my bad i meant the other TE Matt Speath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irish Jet Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Cro will be on Wallace. End of story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 I read that and now I think my bacon brain is sprained. I will need CTM to graph it and explain it to me. What I got from it is every no on then Revis will not be on your #1 receiver and that's a good time to throw him the ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jack48 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 my bad i meant the other TE Matt Speath I expect more heavy hitting of receivers this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Crusher Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Cro will be on Wallace. End of story. Cro is great on speedsters. Randy Moss types. He's tall long and gangly, he struggles with short little quick dudes coming out of his breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BroadwayJoe12 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 So Revis can't cover the slant. I dunnot, but I feel like i've heard this before...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stonehands Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 The whole article is stupid. Cromartie has been matching up against the other team's deep threat and Revis handles the possession guy. Revis will be on Hines Ward for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jetscanes331 Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 It always amuses me how writers and stats guys think they realize things that professional nfl coaches do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HessStation Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 So Revis can't cover the slant. I dunnot, but I feel like i've heard this before...... LOL KC Joyner is the same idiot that bases his player evaluations on individual defensive statistics. I will never forget one of his articles on Randall Gay being a better FA aquicistion than Asante Samuel based on their "stats". There was another one that had Shaun Rogers as one of the worst DLineman in the league entering his FA year leaving Detroit based on his "stats". It's borderline commical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LWC611 Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 Cro will be on Wallace. End of story. This...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larz Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The reason Revis didn't face Wallace is that the Jets had decided to assign Antonio Cromartie to the Steelers speedster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsFanInDenver Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The Steelers have a highly talented set of WRs. No doubt about that. But two things. Are they good enough to embarass the JETS secondary. Doubt it. And the other being the lack of experience. Somebody correct me if I am wrong but this has to be the first AFC championship game for Wallace as a primary target. Maybe they step up to the pressure. Maybe they succumb. Most people forget that the Steelers are here only because the Ravens self sabotaged their chances of winning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Does his logic even make sense? yes, of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTM Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 So Revis can't cover the slant. I dunnot, but I feel like i've heard this before...... the numbers are what they are.. anecdotedly, i think revis is awesome on outs and comebacks and definitely more vunerable on inside routes. That isn't to say he's bad, just that he's not as lightsout as he is on other routes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GandWFan Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 So Revis has "problems" covering inside routes, huh? yeah, send Wallace over the middle. Eric Smith will knock him out. Next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharrow Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Another reason to have Revis on Ward is because he's a lot harder to block than Cromartie. Whoever is covering Wallace is going to have help over the top a lot of the time anyway, especially if someone other than Revis or Cro is on him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madmikeisback Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Mike Wallace is awesome. Of course they should fear him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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