Jets Article on Grantland.com

[Jetsfan80]

http://www.grantland...s-anomaly-trend

Gang Green Forecast

It's time to look at the numbers and ask the question: Will the Jets be good this year?

By Bill Barnwell on July 25, 2012

You would forgive Jets fans if they tried to pretend that the 2011 season was washed away by the lockout. It was a pretty rough time. Sure, an up-and-down first 15 weeks of the season is basically de rigueur for the Rex Ryan–era Jets, but Gang Green's magical ability to raise their game at the end of the season and parlay that momentum into a playoff run was somehow transferred to the Giants during that devastating Week 16 derby.¹

The scariest part about the disappointing season for Jets fans, though, was how it came about. New York's offense played at exactly the same level in 2011 as it did in 2010, ranking 13th in the league in points scored in both seasons. The defense, though? It would be tough for them to say the same thing. After allowing the fewest points in football during Ryan's debut season in 2009 and finishing sixth in the league in 2010, the once-formidable Jets defense fell off to 20th last season. A team that allowed under 15 points per game during that 2009 campaign allowed 30 points or more on five different occasions last year, losing all five games.²

Regardless of what you think about the presence of Tim Tebow and the possibility of an improved offense, it's pretty clear that the Jets will need their defense to return to form in 2012 if they want to make a serious run in the AFC. The presence of Darrelle Revis should be enough to push any defense toward success, but Ryan stalwarts like Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard are either on the wane or off the roster. Are the Jets about to recover and return to the elite? Or does their slide down the points-allowed charts show no sign of stopping?

To put the answer to this question in the starkest possible terms, just look at the table below, which has the Jets' rank in points allowed alongside their rank in DVOA³ during the Ryan era.

Year PA Rank DVOA Rank 2009 1 1 2010 6 5 2011 20 2

Quick: Spot the outlier! Despite the dramatic rise in their points allowed — and with it, a decline in their record — the advanced statistics suggest that the Jets were actually every bit as good as they used to be. How on earth can that be true? And which of the two actually matters in predicting how the Jets will do in 2012?

To start, I went and looked back at teams similar to the Jets, teams with great DVOA ratings and surprisingly high points-allowed totals. Since Ryan's defense finished second in DVOA and 20th in points allowed, a difference of 18 spots in the respective rankings, I looked back through the 19-year history of DVOA to try to find how teams with those sorts of differences do in the following season. In looking at teams whose points-allowed rank was 15 spots or more worse than their DVOA rank, the trend was pretty clear. The difference between those two statistics disappears the following year, as the average gap between PA and DVOA fell from 15 or more down to 2.4 spots.

And, excitingly for Jets fans, the defense usually improves. The average team in this group improved their points-allowed ranking by an average of nearly nine spots. The 2007 Ravens, who were the last such team to have this sort of difference, could serve as a nice blueprint for the Jets' bounce-back. They were ranked fifth in DVOA on defense that year, but were 22nd in points allowed. A year later, they were second in DVOA … and third in points allowed.

So, why did that gap exist last year? And if it's not going to stick around, as history suggests, are the aspects of the Jets' performance that caused the gap also going to disappear? It's impossible to say for sure, but I've identified a few things that drove the high points-allowed totals from last season, and I think most of them will either disappear or be less meaningful in 2012.

The easiest one to note is the obvious difference that comes up whenever you compare a rate or per-play statistic (like DVOA) to a cumulative one (like points allowed): volume. New York's defense was great on a per-play basis last year, but it was on the field too frequently. The Jets defense faced 201 drives last year, tied with two other teams atop the NFL leaderboard. The league average was just over 183, so those 18 extra drives basically mean that the Jets defense played about an extra game and a half's worth of action. It's unlikely that the Jets will face so many drives during the upcoming season; they ranked fifth in that category in 2010 and 14th during 2009.

New York's offense and special teams could also help make their defense's job easier, although there's no guarantee that they will. The Jets defense had received excellent average field position during Ryan's first two years with the club, ranking among the top 10 in the league in both those seasons. Last year, their rank fell to 21st, and the biggest reason why was the offense's remarkable propensity to go three-and-out. Mark Sanchez & Co. produced three-and-outs on 30.3 percent of their drives, the fourth-highest rate in football.⁴

If Jets fans are hoping that Tebow is going to solve that problem, though, they might be disappointed: Tebow's Broncos were one of the three teams who went three-and-out more frequently than the Jets last year.

There's another way the offense can help out: tackling. We've been blaming the New York defense so far for every point scored against the Jets last season, but there was a shocking amount of scoring done while Revis's crew was sitting on the sideline. Opposing defenses scored seven touchdowns against the Jets on interception or fumble returns last season. That's 42 points even without the extra points! Three of those touchdowns came in one game against the Ravens. As tempting as it is to chalk that up to a disinterested group of veteran players and their poor chemistry, there's no "skill" (or lack thereof) related to allowing touchdowns on offense. It's a function of the number of turnovers you commit and total randomness. The Jets saw those seven touchdowns come in over 34 turnovers this season; a year ago, the Jets offense turned the ball over 21 times and had just one of those turnovers result in a touchdown for the opposition. The average team will give up about 2.5 defensive touchdowns per year, so if the Jets can get back to that league-average rate, it will potentially save them 32 points.

Once you get rid of the points the defense didn't actually allow and account for the number of drives they faced, it's much clearer to see why the advanced metrics like what the Jets D did last year. They only allowed 1.55 points per drive, which was the sixth-best rate in football. Throw in the tough field position and a schedule that saw them stuck playing the Patriots twice and, well, you've got a defense that begins to resemble the second-best unit in football.

Of course, there's more to it than the numbers. Changes in personnel will also play a key role in determining how the Jets do on defense this year. While the Jets weren't a particularly injury-prone team last year on that side of the ball, their injuries were concentrated up front, as they lost defensive linemen Kenrick Ellis and Mike DeVito for chunks of the season and saw stalwart linebacker Bryan Thomas miss the final 12 games of the year with a torn Achilles. Those injuries gave 2011 first-round pick Muhammad Wilkerson valuable reps on the defensive line, and encouraged the Jets to spend their first-round pick in this year's draft on UNC lineman Quinton Coples. Thomas's injury also created playing time for Bills castoff Aaron Maybin, who acquitted himself nicely in limited time with a team-high six sacks. If the Jets can get significant contributions from those young players, it will offset the aging of former stars like Scott, Thomas, and Calvin Pace.

The other notable moves on the defense this year came at safety, where both of last year's starters have left town. Brodney Pool left for the Cowboys, but the more notable departure was that of Leonhard, who is currently out of football after suffering a fractured tibia in 2010 and a torn patellar tendon last season. Leonhard was seen in some circles as the heart and soul of the Jets defense,⁵ a former special teamer who frequently played center field as the last resort behind those diabolical Ryan blitzes. He missed eight games over the past two years with those major injuries, and as it turns out, the Jets have been much better off when he's been in the lineup. They've allowed an average of 19.1 points per game with Leonhard active and a full touchdown more, 26.1 points, with Leonhard on the sidelines. That stat probably overstates Leonhard's impact, but backup Jets safety Eric Smith isn't cut out to play Leonhard's role.

That's why it's so interesting that the Jets will probably try to end up replacing Leonhard with former Redskins safety LaRon Landry. Landry, the sixth overall pick in the 2007 NFL draft, has struggled with Achilles issues for most of the past two seasons. Landry opted to avoid surgery, so it seems likely that the injury will recur at some point during the season, but he was a downright brilliant player for the Redskins in 2010. He's played some center field for the Redskins, but his athleticism and power probably makes him a better fit to play in the box as a safety in run support. That's also true, unfortunately, of Bell. And if either of them gets hurt, well, the Jets already know that Smith can't play that role. In the end, while they've denied interest in re-signing him, the Jets might have to turn to Leonhard after all.

It's never quiet and boring with the Jets, and it'll be fascinating to see how all these statistical indicators and personnel changes play out during the 2012 season. Regardless of how they meld, a friendly schedule that sees the dismal offenses of the AFC South and NFC West come to town should produce a superficially superior defense. If the Jets can improve their field position and keep opposing defenses off the scoreboard, they should have a top-five defense in both points allowed and DVOA in 2012. And if they can pull that off, they should be good enough to make it back into the playoffs this season.

[dbatesman]

Does a good job of explaining why we were 2nd in the league in DVOA but 20th in points allowed. Long story short: a lot of it was the offense's fault, it was a weird, fluky season, and the D should be awesome this year.

http://www.grantland...s-anomaly-trend

Gang Green Forecast

It's time to look at the numbers and ask the question: Will the Jets be good this year?

By Bill Barnwell on July 25, 2012

You would forgive Jets fans if they tried to pretend that the 2011 season was washed away by the lockout. It was a pretty rough time. Sure, an up-and-down first 15 weeks of the season is basically de rigueur for the Rex Ryan–era Jets, but Gang Green's magical ability to raise their game at the end of the season and parlay that momentum into a playoff run was somehow transferred to the Giants during that devastating Week 16 derby.

The scariest part about the disappointing season for Jets fans, though, was how it came about. New York's offense played at exactly the same level in 2011 as it did in 2010, ranking 13th in the league in points scored in both seasons. The defense, though? It would be tough for them to say the same thing. After allowing the fewest points in football during Ryan's debut season in 2009 and finishing sixth in the league in 2010, the once-formidable Jets defense fell off to 20th last season. A team that allowed under 15 points per game during that 2009 campaign allowed 30 points or more on five different occasions last year, losing all five games.

Regardless of what you think about the presence of Tim Tebow and the possibility of an improved offense, it's pretty clear that the Jets will need their defense to return to form in 2012 if they want to make a serious run in the AFC. The presence of Darrelle Revis should be enough to push any defense toward success, but Ryan stalwarts like Bart Scott and Jim Leonhard are either on the wane or off the roster. Are the Jets about to recover and return to the elite? Or does their slide down the points-allowed charts show no sign of stopping?

To put the answer to this question in the starkest possible terms, just look at the table below, which has the Jets' rank in points allowed alongside their rank in DVOA during the Ryan era.

										Year							PA Rank							DVOA Rank											2009							1							1											2010							6							5											2011							20							2			

[/html]



Quick: Spot the outlier! Despite the dramatic rise in their points allowed — and with it, a decline in their record — the advanced statistics suggest that the Jets were actually every bit as good as they used to be. How on earth can that be true? And which of the two actually matters in predicting how the Jets will do in 2012?


To start, I went and looked back at teams similar to the Jets, teams with great DVOA ratings and surprisingly high points-allowed totals. Since Ryan's defense finished second in DVOA and 20th in points allowed, a difference of 18 spots in the respective rankings, I looked back through the 19-year history of DVOA to try to find how teams with those sorts of differences do in the following season. In looking at teams whose points-allowed rank was 15 spots or more worse than their DVOA rank, the trend was pretty clear. The difference between those two statistics disappears the following year, as the average gap between PA and DVOA fell from 15 or more down to 2.4 spots. And, excitingly for Jets fans, the defense usually improves. The average team in this group improved their points-allowed ranking by an average of nearly nine spots. The 2007 Ravens, who were the last such team to have this sort of difference, could serve as a nice blueprint for the Jets' bounce-back. They were ranked fifth in DVOA on defense that year, but were 22nd in points allowed. A year later, they were second in DVOA … and third in points allowed.


So, why did that gap exist last year? And if it's not going to stick around, as history suggests, are the aspects of the Jets' performance that caused the gap also going to disappear? It's impossible to say for sure, but I've identified a few things that drove the high points-allowed totals from last season, and I think most of them will either disappear or be less meaningful in 2012.


The easiest one to note is the obvious difference that comes up whenever you compare a rate or per-play statistic (like DVOA) to a cumulative one (like points allowed): volume. New York's defense was great on a per-play basis last year, but it was on the field too frequently. The Jets defense faced 201 drives last year, tied with two other teams atop the NFL leaderboard. The league average was just over 183, so those 18 extra drives basically mean that the Jets defense played about an extra game and a half's worth of action. It's unlikely that the Jets will face so many drives during the upcoming season; they ranked fifth in that category in 2010 and 14th during 2009.


New York's offense and special teams could also help make their defense's job easier, although there's no guarantee that they will. The Jets defense had received excellent average field position during Ryan's first two years with the club, ranking among the top 10 in the league in both those seasons. Last year, their rank fell to 21st, and the biggest reason why was the offense's remarkable propensity to go three-and-out. Mark Sanchez & Co. produced three-and-outs on 30.3 percent of their drives, the fourth-highest rate in football. If Jets fans are hoping that Tebow is going to solve that problem, though, they might be disappointed: Tebow's Broncos were one of the three teams who went three-and-out more frequently than the Jets last year.


There's another way the offense can help out: tackling. We've been blaming the New York defense so far for every point scored against the Jets last season, but there was a shocking amount of scoring done while Revis's crew was sitting on the sideline. Opposing defenses scored seven touchdowns against the Jets on interception or fumble returns last season. That's 42 points even without the extra points! Three of those touchdowns came in one game against the Ravens. As tempting as it is to chalk that up to a disinterested group of veteran players and their poor chemistry, there's no "skill" (or lack thereof) related to allowing touchdowns on offense. It's a function of the number of turnovers you commit and total randomness. The Jets saw those seven touchdowns come in over 34 turnovers this season; a year ago, the Jets offense turned the ball over 21 times and had just one of those turnovers result in a touchdown for the opposition. The average team will give up about 2.5 defensive touchdowns per year, so if the Jets can get back to that league-average rate, it will potentially save them 32 points.


Once you get rid of the points the defense didn't actually allow and account for the number of drives they faced, it's much clearer to see why the advanced metrics like what the Jets D did last year. They only allowed 1.55 points per drive, which was the sixth-best rate in football. Throw in the tough field position and a schedule that saw them stuck playing the Patriots twice and, well, you've got a defense that begins to resemble the second-best unit in football.


Of course, there's more to it than the numbers. Changes in personnel will also play a key role in determining how the Jets do on defense this year. While the Jets weren't a particularly injury-prone team last year on that side of the ball, their injuries were concentrated up front, as they lost defensive linemen Kenrick Ellis and Mike DeVito for chunks of the season and saw stalwart linebacker Bryan Thomas miss the final 12 games of the year with a torn Achilles. Those injuries gave 2011 first-round pick Muhammad Wilkerson valuable reps on the defensive line, and encouraged the Jets to spend their first-round pick in this year's draft on UNC lineman Quinton Coples. Thomas's injury also created playing time for Bills castoff Aaron Maybin, who acquitted himself nicely in limited time with a team-high six sacks. If the Jets can get significant contributions from those young players, it will offset the aging of former stars like Scott, Thomas, and Calvin Pace.


The other notable moves on the defense this year came at safety, where both of last year's starters have left town. Brodney Pool left for the Cowboys, but the more notable departure was that of Leonhard, who is currently out of football after suffering a fractured tibia in 2010 and a torn patellar tendon last season. Leonhard was seen in some circles as the heart and soul of the Jets defense, a former special teamer who frequently played center field as the last resort behind those diabolical Ryan blitzes. He missed eight games over the past two years with those major injuries, and as it turns out, the Jets have been much better off when he's been in the lineup. They've allowed an average of 19.1 points per game with Leonhard active and a full touchdown more, 26.1 points, with Leonhard on the sidelines. That stat probably overstates Leonhard's impact, but backup Jets safety Eric Smith isn't cut out to play Leonhard's role.


That's why it's so interesting that the Jets will probably try to end up replacing Leonhard with former Redskins safety LaRon Landry. Landry, the sixth overall pick in the 2007 NFL draft, has struggled with Achilles issues for most of the past two seasons. Landry opted to avoid surgery, so it seems likely that the injury will recur at some point during the season, but he was a downright brilliant player for the Redskins in 2010. He's played some center field for the Redskins, but his athleticism and power probably makes him a better fit to play in the box as a safety in run support. That's also true, unfortunately, of Bell. And if either of them gets hurt, well, the Jets already know that Smith can't play that role. In the end, while they've denied interest in re-signing him, the Jets might have to turn to Leonhard after all.


It's never quiet and boring with the Jets, and it'll be fascinating to see how all these statistical indicators and personnel changes play out during the 2012 season. Regardless of how they meld, a friendly schedule that sees the dismal offenses of the AFC South and NFC West come to town should produce a superficially superior defense. If the Jets can improve their field position and keep opposing defenses off the scoreboard, they should have a top-five defense in both points allowed and DVOA in 2012. And if they can pull that off, they should be good enough to make it back into the playoffs this season.

[Jetsfan80]

Oops, looks like dbatesman posted this article around the same time. Mods feel free to delete.

[dbatesman]

										Year							PA Rank							DVOA Rank											2009							1							1											2010							6							5											2011							20							2			

[/html]



Someone more knowledgeable than me can explain where I ****ed this up. Chart looked fine until the moment I hit "post." Anyway, the point is:


[b]2009:  [/b]

PA Rank: 1

DVOA Rank: 1


[b]2010:[/b]

PA Rank: 6

DVOA Rank: 5


[b]2011:[/b]

PA Rank: 20

DVOA Rank: 2

[dbatesman]

Oops, looks like dbatesman posted this article around the same time. Mods feel free to delete.

I think you ninja'd me, actually. I spent like 10 minutes trying to figure out how to format that ****ing table. Time well spent!

[Jetsfan80]

I think you ninja'd me, actually. I spent like 10 minutes trying to figure out how to format that ****ing table. Time well spent!

I didn't even bother to try. F*** these people.

[Bugg]

"The Jets defense faced 201 drives last year, tied with two other teams atop the NFL leaderboard. The league average was just over 183, so those 18 extra drives basically mean that the Jets defense played about an extra game and a half's worth of action. It's unlikely that the Jets will face so many drives during the upcoming season; they ranked fifth in that category in 2010 and 14th during 2009." THIS is what 3 and outs (and to a lesser extent a punter who isn't dominant and good art corner kicking) will do to ANY defense. The jets' defense on average was facing 12.56 drives against each week, the average defense faces 11.43, and better defenses closer to 10. It adds upevery game and all year. . The more your defense is on the field the better the chance it's going to allow a score. And this is why this "ground&pound" stuff is still stupid on stilts. If you take the guesswork out of opposing defenses, if everything is tight formations, runs and short passes, we are still gonna suck on offense. And the defense is AGAIN going to wear out in games like it did against the Giants and Broncos.

[dbatesman]

Incidentally, the best thing about the article is how ruthlessly and utterly it deflates Simmons and his sh*theel whiscasting. He regularly networks with two FO guys (Barnwell on Grantland and Schatz on his execrable podcast) who easily could have told him that the defense was great but unlucky last season. Instead he's spent the offseason season crowing about how the Jets' defense was crap and Rex was an overrated fraud and we're going to go 5-11 this year and offered the clip of the Tebow TD as prima facie evidence. Good to see the Sports Guy still lives in a bro-haven fantasy world of mendacious self-aggrandizement.

[#27TheDominator]

"The Jets defense faced 201 drives last year, tied with two other teams atop the NFL leaderboard. The league average was just over 183, so those 18 extra drives basically mean that the Jets defense played about an extra game and a half's worth of action. It's unlikely that the Jets will face so many drives during the upcoming season; they ranked fifth in that category in 2010 and 14th during 2009." THIS is what 3 and outs (and to a lesser extent a punter who isn't dominant and good art corner kicking) will do to ANY defense. The jets' defense on average was facing 12.56 drives against each week, the average defense faces 11.43, and better defenses closer to 10. It adds upevery game and all year. . The more your defense is on the field the better the chance it's going to allow a score. And this is why this "ground&pound" stuff is still stupid on stilts. If you take the guesswork out of opposing defenses, if everything is tight formations, runs and short passes, we are still gonna suck on offense. And the defense is AGAIN going to wear out in games like it did against the Giants and Broncos.

Yeah? They were more "ground and pound" in 2009 and 2010 and people weren't complaining about the field position and number of drives. They tried to open up the offense a bit in 2011 and it failed. Ground and pound = less turnovers, more time of possession and playing a field position game. Turnovers and points scored against the offense were two of the main issues and the "ground and pound" comes close to eliminating them. I never saw anyone say it was going to be run and short passes. My understanding is they will run, run and run some more with oportunistic long passes mixed in. Not that west coast BS

Agree about the punter. Can Tebow punt?

[Bleedin Green]

Yeah? They were more "ground and pound" in 2009 and 2010 and people weren't complaining about the field position and number of drives. They tried to open up the offense a bit in 2011 and it failed. Ground and pound = less turnovers, more time of possession and playing a field position game. Turnovers and points scored against the offense were two of the main issues and the "ground and pound" comes close to eliminating them. I never saw anyone say it was going to be run and short passes. My understanding is they will run, run and run some more with oportunistic long passes mixed in. Not that west coast BS

Agree about the punter. Can Tebow punt?

Agreed. The entire reason Rex loves the idea of the ground and pound so much is that, if done successfully, it will limit the amount of time the D spends on the field more than anything else, even if the offense just gets a few first downs on a drive but doesn't manage to score.

[JiFtheOracle]

. Last year, their rank fell to 21st, and the biggest reason why was the offense's remarkable propensity to go three-and-out. Mark Sanchez & Co. produced three-and-outs on 30.3 percent of their drives, the fourth-highest rate in football.⁴

but the more notable departure was that of Leonhard, who is currently out of football after suffering a fractured tibia in 2010 and a torn patellar tendon last season. Leonhard was seen in some circles as the heart and soul of the Jets defense,

1st point makes me want to puke and its 90% of the reason why the D wasnt as good as it been in from a PA perspective.

2nd point makes me ask, wtf circles is he hanging out in? There's this dude, Revis, he's pretty ****ing good.

[JiFtheOracle]

Yeah? They were more "ground and pound" in 2009 and 2010 and people weren't complaining about the field position and number of drives. They tried to open up the offense a bit in 2011 and it failed. Ground and pound = less turnovers, more time of possession and playing a field position game. Turnovers and points scored against the offense were two of the main issues and the "ground and pound" comes close to eliminating them. I never saw anyone say it was going to be run and short passes. My understanding is they will run, run and run some more with oportunistic long passes mixed in. Not that west coast BS

Agree about the punter. Can Tebow punt?

Schotty system was ass backward. Power running with short to intermediate passing. Its a horrible combo. This offense will look different. I'm confident in that.

[whodeawhodat]

1st point makes me want to puke and its 90% of the reason why the D wasnt as good as it been in from a PA perspective.

2nd point makes me ask, wtf circles is he hanging out in? There's this dude, Revis, he's pretty ****ing good.

I think he meant that Leonards role was central to getting players into position and knowing where the defense was vounerable and covering that position himself or covering for other players that he knew would abandon their responsibilities in certain situations. Revis more or less knew what he was going to do, his teammates knew what he was going to do, sh*t, even their opponents knew what he was going to do. Eliminate a reciever from the play. Whether it was their #1 so that cro could blanket the #2 or revis would move to the #2 so that Cro and whoever would double the #1.

[JiFtheOracle]

I think he meant that Leonards role was central to getting players into position and knowing where the defense was vounerable and covering that position himself or covering for other players that he knew would abandon their responsibilities in certain situations. Revis more or less knew what he was going to do, his teammates knew what he was going to do, sh*t, even their opponents knew what he was going to do. Eliminate a reciever from the play. Whether it was their #1 so that cro could blanket the #2 or revis would move to the #2 so that Cro and whoever would double the #1.

Right. So "QB of the defense" would have suited better than "heart and soul". I'm confident no circles believe that he was the "heart and soul" of the Jets defense.

[bitonti]

this is the footnote #5 next to the Jim Leonard is the heart and soul of the defense comment

Which is unfair to Darrelle Revis. Darrelle Revis is the heart and soul of the Jets defense. He's also the legs, the arms, the chest, the brain, the teeth, the feet … he's the entire defense. (Insert crass joke about Antonio Cromartie here.)

[dbatesman]

this is the footnote #5 next to the Jim Leonard is the heart and soul of the defense comment

Well, I'm sold. We should pay him eleventy billion dollars over 52 years and give him full hiring and firing powers.

[bitonti]

Well, I'm sold. We should pay him eleventy billion dollars over 52 years and give him full hiring and firing powers.

of course we don't have any proof that Revis is the heart and soul of the defense.

[slats]

Seven wins, max.

[Gastineau Lives]

Yeah? They were more "ground and pound" in 2009 and 2010 and people weren't complaining about the field position and number of drives. They tried to open up the offense a bit in 2011 and it failed. Ground and pound = less turnovers, more time of possession and playing a field position game. Turnovers and points scored against the offense were two of the main issues and the "ground and pound" comes close to eliminating them. I never saw anyone say it was going to be run and short passes. My understanding is they will run, run and run some more with oportunistic long passes mixed in. Not that west coast BS

Agree about the punter. Can Tebow punt?

No, we have a punter. He does it with his arm and doesn't wait three downs to do it.

[nj meadowlands]

Cool article. Nerdy, but good.

[T0mShane]

I fundamentally reject any and all analysis that doesn't project the Jets to win a minimum of 12 games. Any writer who predicts less than 12 wins is :flips through frequently used fan phrase guidebook: a hack with an agenda and a Belichick apologist.

[THE ILK]

I fundamentally reject any and all analysis that doesn't project the Jets to win a minimum of 12 games. Any writer who predicts less than 12 wins is :flips through frequently used fan phrase guidebook: a hack with an agenda and a Belichick apologist.

Must be why Max keeps you around.

[Jetsfan80]

I fundamentally reject any and all analysis that doesn't project the Jets to win a minimum of 12 games. Any writer who predicts less than 12 wins is :flips through frequently used fan phrase guidebook: a hack with an agenda and a Belichick apologist.

I fundamentally reject any snarky assertions made by T0mShane.

[GREENBEAN]

of course we don't have any proof that Revis is the heart and soul of the defense.

POUHA is the heart and soul now. Just ask Devito

[Bugg]

Yeah? They were more "ground and pound" in 2009 and 2010 and people weren't complaining about the field position and number of drives. They tried to open up the offense a bit in 2011 and it failed. Ground and pound = less turnovers, more time of possession and playing a field position game. Turnovers and points scored against the offense were two of the main issues and the "ground and pound" comes close to eliminating them. I never saw anyone say it was going to be run and short passes. My understanding is they will run, run and run some more with oportunistic long passes mixed in. Not that west coast BS

Agree about the punter. Can Tebow punt?

This is not a knock on the defense, merely a reminder that how well or poorly your offense its affects how much your defense is on the field. And the more it's on the field the more chance there is it will get scored on. THe Jets barely made the playoffs in 2009, and still were only a wildcard in 2010. You do not get a playoff berth because of defensive or offensive rankings. If they could pass a lick, imagine what they could've down in either of those seasons.

Yes the offense may be better. And if the Jets are going to make the playoffs it had better be. And I'm sorry, even expecting Sparano o be a major improvement may not be enough to overcome the suck at the QB position.

[SenorGato]

Recommended reading for everyone. Really simply put but concise analysis. Jets are going to be major.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4fiuL0mRXA

[#27TheDominator]

This is not a knock on the defense, merely a reminder that how well or poorly your offense its affects how much your defense is on the field. And the more it's on the field the more chance there is it will get scored on. THe Jets barely made the playoffs in 2009, and still were only a wildcard in 2010. You do not get a playoff berth because of defensive or offensive rankings. If they could pass a lick, imagine what they could've down in either of those seasons.

Yes the offense may be better. And if the Jets are going to make the playoffs it had better be. And I'm sorry, even expecting Sparano o be a major improvement may not be enough to overcome the suck at the QB position.

My point wasn't that the offense will be better. You insulted the ground and pound and IMO the ground and pound can accomplish the goal of protecting the defense without the offense being better. I think most of us think of the ground and pound mentality as 3 yards and a cloud of dust, butI think the actual philosophy is just to protect the defense. Every now and then you take a shot. A Parcells' team would be that way. A ton of running with an occaisional shot deep or crazy risk - onside kick, HB option. Sometimes it backfires ("Leon Johnson!" as I shake my fist) but it gives a chance for a quick score and can keep the defense honest.

I think that they will run more and when they throw they will have athletic guys like Schillens and Hill to draw defenders deep. If you leave those guys ne-on-one it is a fairly easy throw for Sanchez and if they get over the top help it will open up Holmes underneath to catch the little check down and run the way he did against Cleveland and Detroit in 2010. That's the theory I think. I have no idea if it will work, but I think they will be more careful with the ball and do a much better job of protecting the D.

[Bleedin Green]

My point wasn't that the offense will be better. You insulted the ground and pound and IMO the ground and pound can accomplish the goal of protecting the defense without the offense being better. I think most of us think of the ground and pound mentality as 3 yards and a cloud of dust, butI think the actual philosophy is just to protect the defense. Every now and then you take a shot. A Parcells' team would be that way. A ton of running with an occaisional shot deep or crazy risk - onside kick, HB option. Sometimes it backfires ("Leon Johnson!" as I shake my fist) but it gives a chance for a quick score and can keep the defense honest.

I think that they will run more and when they throw they will have athletic guys like Schillens and Hill to draw defenders deep. If you leave those guys ne-on-one it is a fairly easy throw for Sanchez and if they get over the top help it will open up Holmes underneath to catch the little check down and run the way he did against Cleveland and Detroit in 2010. That's the theory I think. I have no idea if it will work, but I think they will be more careful with the ball and do a much better job of protecting the D.

Very well said, and I completely agree. This team already knows they can win with their defense, so the goal of the offense is to simply protect the football, control the clock and try to mix in the occasional big play to get some points and keep the opposing D honest. I think their mindset is if they can even get back to even just the 2010 offense but with more experienced and consistent QB play and continuing the improved red zone efficiency we saw last year, they would be more than thrilled with that.

[Bugg]

Very well said, and I completely agree. This team already knows they can win with their defense, so the goal of the offense is to simply protect the football, control the clock and try to mix in the occasional big play to get some points and keep the opposing D honest. I think their mindset is if they can even get back to even just the 2010 offense but with more experienced and consistent QB play and continuing the improved red zone efficiency we saw last year, they would be more than thrilled with that.

Wishful thinking.You make that sound like a given and it's not. Sorry, guys. This idea you are going to "protect the football" aor ground and pound is not going to work no matter how good your defense is. II you really look at 2009 and 2010 the Jets won a bunch of games they had no business winning-the Lions and Browns. And even last year the Cowboys game was a gift, while the offense sucking cost them both the Broncos and Giants games. I hope I am wronng, and fully expect the offense to be smarter. But that doens't necessarily mean it will translate into a playoff berth. Even look at the limitations of the run first Niners and Ravens. YOU HAVE TO BE ABLE TO THROW THE BALL EFFECTIVELY. And right now with Sanchez that is not close to a given.

[Bleedin Green]

Wishful thinking.You make that sound like a given and it's not. Sorry, guys. This idea you are going to "protect the football" aor ground and pound is not going to work no matter how good your defense is. II you really look at 2009 and 2010 the Jets won a bunch of games they had no business winning-the Lions and Browns. And even last year the Cowboys game was a gift, while the offense sucking cost them both the Broncos and Giants games. I hope I am wronng, and fully expect the offense to be smarter. But that doens't necessarily mean it will translate into a playoff berth. Even look at the limitations of the run first Niners and Ravens. YOU HAVE TO BE ABLE TO THROW THE BALL EFFECTIVELY. And right now with Sanchez that is not close to a given.

How is it wishful thinking? They've already done exactly that before. Of course that doesn't mean they'll do it again or to what degree they'll be successful, but the worst they've ever done since Rex got to town was 8-8, and that was with a complete collapse down the stretch and a disastrous locker room debacle. Now I won't argue for a second that the Jets would be a far better team with a top notch passing game, but there's a difference between saying that and saying they cannot win without one.

And as far as trying to discount the Lions, Browns and Cowboys games, it's stuff like this which is why Jets fans have such a bad rep in the sports world. For years, one thing this fan base bitched and moaned about as much as anything (and rightfully so) was how the Jets could never pull off the late game wins. How when opportunities presented themselves, they always managed to **** it up and let it slip through their fingers. Meanwhile, we constantly saw it going the other way, with Jets blowing games that they easily should have been able to put away, but screwed up enough to let their opponents back into it and lost. Since Rex has come around, this is something the Jets have finally gotten past. Now there's been numerous games that looked like they were going to lose, they did what they needed to and pulled off the win in the end, while also having other games that it seemed they were about to let slip away that they managed to hold onto in the end. Now granted that obviously isn't the case all the time, but at a much better rate than we've seen from this team in a very long time. And now that the Jets have finally become one of those teams? We have to endlessly hear how those wins don't count. Sorry, but every team in the league, even the very best ones, get wins like that, and none of them are going to apologize for them or discount them. I could easily argue that if those other teams that you mentioned had won instead, that those wins would have been even less deserved than the Jets' victories. Hell, BOTH of the team's playing in the Super Bowl last year were only even there because of those exact type of games.

[bitonti]

POUHA is the heart and soul now. Just ask Devito

pouha's the man but he's not even on the field for 3rd down.

[#27TheDominator]

Nature of the ground and pound. I actually dislike the name, but I gave up on putting it in quotes. I don't think it's wishful thinking to expect the team to do something it has already done. They added plenty to their D and before they tried to open up the O in 2011 they won with the ground and pound.

Sure they won some close games, but they also lost plenty of close games. 10-6 to the Dolphins? 9-0 to the Pack? 10-9 to the Ravens? That disgrace against the Bears? How many games have they been blown out since Rex got here? IIRC there was just the Pats and Saints in 2009 and the Pats in 2010. Last year when they tried to open up their offense they got smacked by the Pats, Giants, Raiders, Eagles and Ravens. The purpose of that O is to keep the team in the game and then make plays down the stretch. WE apply the pressure. You win some, you lose some, but you are generally in every game to the end. That wasn't the case last year and we are going back to it. If the D is more rested they will be more likely to shut teams down in the 4th rather than fold up and let them run like the Giants and Broncos did last year.

[GREENBEAN]

pouha's the man but he's not even on the field for 3rd down.

3rd down is not where the heart and soul resides. That's more brain territory. Don't you know anything about what parts of the game are associated with each body part man? FG is the knee. Goal line D is the elbow etc

[SenorGato]

Two words: Offensive. Coordination.

[THE ILK]

Two words: Offensive. Coordination.

Who is: Tom Moore?