Running the ball

[Larz]

morningwood digs the pass

 

he will abandon the run in every game he ever coaches for us

[bitonti]

morningwood digs the pass

 

he will abandon the run in every game he ever coaches for us

which is exactly how the people who run the NFL want it. Look at the league with the rule changes and what games they select for prime time it's all about passing and scoring. Running is done. 

[Larz]

which is exactly how the people who run the NFL want it. Look at the league with the rule changes and what games they select for prime time it's all about passing and scoring. Running is done. 

 

yup and the funny thing is last year the general complaint around here was the jets are the only NFL team that tries to win by "ground and pound"

 

I have to admit, 2nd and 10 takes some getting used to

 

but with a rookie QB, you have to call pass plays on 1st down to give him a chance

 

I don't mind it at all

[shawn306]

Any rule changes, be it the NFL, MLB, the NHL or the NBA are always going to be designed to help the offense. When was the last time a league implemented a rule that helped the defense ?

 

The lords of the NFL have set this up now where it is to your advantage to throw the football. Now does it work ? For a lot, yes. But I look at the Giants right now who have zero running game and have to right now basically rely on Eli and he went and threw what 4 picks against Denver ? They don't look like a Super Bowl contender right now but it is still early.

 

You take a look at a team right now like Seattle, who could very well be the best team in the NFC they have run the ball through their first two games more than they have thrown it.

 

Right now I think the Jets need some kind of a running game so it doesn't fall all on Geno's shoulders right now. Maybe in a yearm when the games starts to slow down for him and they get some receivers they can open it up more.

[Jetsfan80]

I'm confusing them with causation? What the hell are you talking about man?

 

I looked at win loss records, to prove the running game is not dead. You took that seven steps further and constructed an argument I didn't even make.

 

The problem is there's not really any measurable out there to tease out what is causing the data to read that way.  Are teams who run more doing so because they are ahead in games and don't have to play catchup?  Or are they running effectively early on in games, continuing to do so all game, and is that having a more significant impact on a game than their ability to throw?  I'm not sure on that.  

 

The primary 2 run-first teams who have consistent success as a direct result of their running games are the Seahawks and Texans, but you can't tell me that they don't rely on Russell Wilson and Matt Schaub just as much.  Neither are great QB's but they're both quite good, and as a result they've gotten to the playoffs but haven't quite reached that next level.  

 

The Niners are one of those successful running teams on the list, but their run to the Super Bowl came on the back of one of the most impressive postseasons we've ever seen out of a QB in Kaepernick.  And while the Ravens rely on Ray Rice, it's also true that Joe Flacco's 11 TD's, 0 INT's postseason was the driving force behind their Super Bowl title.

 

And does anyone really want to argue that New England and New Orleans' success at toting the rock isn't a direct influence of defenses having to deal with Brady and Brees?  Neither of those franchises have every really had anyone special at the RB position yet they always have success running the ball.  Wonder why.

 

I don't fully agree with Bitonti.  I think running games very much have a place in this league, and teams should play to their strengths.  But let's not pretend that these rushing numbers are absolutely the CAUSE for these teams' success.  It's certainly a factor but its not the BIGGEST one.  And the only thing that puts you over the top in this league is improving at the QB position so you can have the ability to run out the clock with your RB's late in the game.  

 

Your running game can be a QB's best friend but when it fails, the QB needs to make plays.  The primary reason I wanted to keep running with Ivory is due to the fact that it WAS working and could potentially help set up play-action.  Running for 5 yards a pop is never a bad thing.  

[Blackout]

the jets roster isnt good enough to be a pass first team

[flgreen]

the jets roster isnt good enough to be a pass first team

 

Sadly this is probably true.  

[Bugg]

From your posts I conclude: wins, losses, passing yds, rushing yds, pass attemtps, rushing attempts .....etc are useless and should never be used to support an argument you disagree with.

 

I'd prefer to rely on solid data as opposed esoteric debates about the who, where and why of the stats.

Would wager somer stats correlate very closely to winning football-

-an offense that has high yards per pass attempt and low turnovers;

-a defense that yields low yards per pass attempt, probably hasa decent disruptive pass rush and gets sacks, and gets turnovers;

-special teams that give their team decent field position and give poor field position to opponents.

Yards by itself is a bad measure because late in games winning teams will give up gobs of yards in the middle of the field for running the clock, losers will be winging it every down. If you judge by yards alone it's not a fair measure of a team.

[Sperm Edwards]

HUH?

 

Against Tampa the Jets passed the ball 39 times, and ran it 25

 

Against the Pats they passed the ball 35 times and ran it 32

 

That comes out to  56% pass. and 44% run.

 

It is amazing how many people don't know how to count.

 

MM is calling plays at a pass:run ratio of 2:1.  Literally 2 passing plays called for every 1 running play called. I like Mornhinwig, but with a raw-ish rookie QB with questionable receivers, in 2 close games, that is too high.

[Sperm Edwards]

Either people can't count or are only counting what they want to for the purpose of slanting stats to show something other than what really happened. Suggesting we're attempting to pass the ball only 56% of the time is based on a 74:57 total ratio.  But that is a bullsh*t ratio.

 

Geno's been sacked 9 times.  Those are all designed pass plays.  That makes the real ratio 83:57.

 

Geno's scrambled 9 times, on designed pass plays, that are being counted as running plays.  That makes the real ratio 92:46.

 

92 pass plays called, out of 138 plays is a 2:1 ratio.  For every 1 running play called, there have been 2 passing plays called.

[Blackout]

Sadly this is probably true.  

 

of course it is, i said it

[jbone]

Would wager somer stats correlate very closely to winning football-

-an offense that has high yards per pass attempt and low turnovers;

-a defense that yields low yards per pass attempt, probably hasa decent disruptive pass rush and gets sacks, and gets turnovers;

-special teams that give their team decent field position and give poor field position to opponents.

Yards by itself is a bad measure because late in games winning teams will give up gobs of yards in the middle of the field for running the clock, losers will be winging it every down. If you judge by yards alone it's not a fair measure of a team.

I'll wager the #1 stat which is correlated with W-L is turnover ratio. Always is.

 

You're digging into it at a micro level, which makes sense when you're trying to break down individual games and get more granular information. In aggregate I see less of an issue in the overall characteristics of the data. Teams which attempt more runs should, according to Bit and I guess you(?) have significantly different records at the end of the day. Its just not the case. Being able to run the ball is an important part of the game. 

 

I don't disagree the NFL has turned into more of a passing league. I never have. I completely disagree with Bit when he says running is dead. Good teams, especially come playoff time have to be able to run effectively, more often than not. 

[Big Blocker]

 

I don't disagree the NFL has turned into more of a passing league. I never have. I completely disagree with Bit when he says running is dead. Good teams, especially come playoff time have to be able to run effectively, more often than not. 

 

No doubt the NFL is more of a passing league than ever.  Despite Marty's propensity to pass it, the Jets are still passing less than the league average. 

 

It's not so clear anymore that it's a pure either or numbers comparison as well.  How do you count a play where the Qb first looks to see if anyone is open, and then takes off if no one is?   It goes down as a run, but in many situations it makes sense to see if the D is leaving a receiver open.

[bitonti]

Whatever the ratio is let's say it is 40/60 pass to run, that means 40% of the plays, geno has to execute. He's not doing that right now. More running doesn't necessarily cut down on ints and sacks. Geno has to improve.

[cr726]

Whatever the ratio is let's say it is 40/60 pass to run, that means 40% of the plays, geno has to execute. He's not doing that right now. More running doesn't necessarily cut down on ints and sacks. Geno has to improve.

Who has stated Geno doesn't need to improve? Isn't that a given? Majority of us are arguing that running the ball will help Geno get the time he needs and keep him out of 3rd and long situations. That's a good thing.

[kay_gee]

Who has stated Geno doesn't need to improve? Isn't that a given? Majority of us are arguing that running the ball will help Geno get the time he needs and keep him out of 3rd and long situations. That's a good thing.

when you're losing the argument, change it. that's bit's MO.

you're right, nobody who isn't arguing for the sake of arguing is saying "abandon the pass to run run run!" permanently. just run a little more until Smith is a bit less raw to keep him out of more difficult situations.

[bitonti]

when you're losing the argument, change it. that's bit's MO.

you're right, nobody who isn't arguing for the sake of arguing is saying "abandon the pass to run run run!" permanently. just run a little more until Smith is a bit less raw to keep him out of more difficult situations.

 

Losing? You guys are promoting going back to G&P cause the QB isn't ready to carry an offense. That's the Mark Sanchez experiment. We already lived through that. And now, in 2013, the rules are even more pass friendly. Running is dead. Long live running. 

[Matt39]

Losing? You guys are promoting going back to G&P cause the QB isn't ready to carry an offense. That's the Mark Sanchez experiment. We already lived through that. And now, in 2013, the rules are even more pass friendly. Running is dead. Long live running. 

 

If the QB cant stop turning the ball over the Jets dont have a choice. Ivory can play, he's good....get him the ball. He's their only playmaker on offense.

[kay_gee]

Losing? You guys are promoting going back to G&P cause the QB isn't ready to carry an offense. That's the Mark Sanchez experiment. We already lived through that. And now, in 2013, the rules are even more pass friendly. Running is dead. Long live running.

Just because Sanchez will never be ready doesn't mean Smith will never be ready. They're not the same person. I don't understand why you don't get this. The Jets aren't building their team around a G&P philosophy, people are just suggesting they run the ball to stay out of third and long while the rookie gets comfortable under center. This isn't the great regression you're making it out to be. Also, running the ball isn't "dead." It's kind of important. You blatantly ignoring this doesn't make it false.

[bitonti]

If the QB cant stop turning the ball over the Jets dont have a choice. Ivory can play, he's good....get him the ball. He's their only playmaker on offense.

 

They can get him the ball with screens and short dump offs. It doesn't have to be handoffs. 

 

Running the ball has it's place for example running out the clock with an 8 point lead (as KC did last night) but down by 3 the prescription for more running is misguided. 

 

bottom line the Jets offense has scored 17 and 10 in two games. the connection between running more and scoring more is dubious. they need to pass better not run more.

[cr726]

Losing? You guys are promoting going back to G&P cause the QB isn't ready to carry an offense. That's the Mark Sanchez experiment. We already lived through that. And now, in 2013, the rules are even more pass friendly. Running is dead. Long live running.

That is not what I am promoting at all. The rules def. benefit throwing the ball, but the Jet receivers do not. Running the ball when it is successful game to game is not ground and pound. That is taking advantage of what works for that particular game. Stop changing the argument.

[bitonti]

Just because Sanchez will never be ready doesn't mean Smith will never be ready. They're not the same person. I don't understand why you don't get this.  

 

not the same person but the same career path. A not ready QB who should be "protected" by the run game. Ya know how that ends up? Year 4 buttfumble. Protecting a QB is just delaying the inevitable. Either he's got it or he doesn't. the Aaron Rodgers sit for 3 years and learn plan is dead. Deader than running  

 

I am using hyperbole I know running is an important part of a daily breakfast. but cmon it's not gonna generate the 30 points or whatever you need to win week in and week out. 

[bitonti]

That is not what I am promoting at all. The rules def. benefit throwing the ball, but the Jet receivers do not. Running the ball when it is successful game to game is not ground and pound. That is taking advantage of what works for that particular game. Stop changing the argument.

 

everyone is underrating the WR. Kerley is back. Hill is on pace for 1000 yard season and Santonio Holmes is in a contract year. Tom Brady would happily trade WR corp with the Jets.

 

the QB is far weaker than the WR. You are changing the argument bringing in this "WR are bad" excuse. Great QBs can elevate bad WR.  or at least not turn the ball over if nothing is there. 

[cr726]

everyone is underrating the WR. Kerley is back. Hill is on pace for 1000 yard season and Santonio Holmes is in a contract year. Tom Brady would happily trade WR corp with the Jets.

 

the QB is far weaker than the WR. You are changing the argument bringing in this "WR are bad" excuse. Great QBs can elevate bad WR.  or at least not turn the ball over if nothing is there.

We were talking about running the ball against the Patriots, how did Kerley play that night? Gates had multiple drops because he played and not Kerley. The running game was getting 3.5 to 5 yards per carry against the Pats and yet you want to keep bringing up ground and pound? No one brought that up.

[bitonti]

We were talking about running the ball against the Patriots, how did Kerley play that night? Gates had multiple drops because he played and not Kerley. The running game was getting 3.5 to 5 yards per carry against the Pats and yet you want to keep bringing up ground and pound? No one brought that up.

 

maybe the reason the running game was working is because they knew the Jets were passing. WE don't really know that running more would have worked, especially if they knew it was coming. 

 

tom brady had worse WR than the jets the difference is he didn't throw any picks. Running more to "protect" Geno isn't addressing the root issue which is throwing terrible interceptions. Whether the ratio is 40/60 or the down is 2nd and 7 instead of 2nd and 10 that doesn't excuse the turnovers. Sooner or later he will be in a passing situation... 

 

Running won't stop turnovers and losses (especially when Ivory put the ball on the carpet in the first half, which is a whole nother discussion). 

[Greenseed4]

run the dang ball. 

 

Geno is not (yet) able to carry this team. 

[cr726]

maybe the reason the running game was working is because they knew the Jets were passing. WE don't really know that running more would have worked, especially if they knew it was coming. 

 

tom brady had worse WR than the jets the difference is he didn't throw any picks. Running more to "protect" Geno isn't addressing the root issue which is throwing terrible interceptions. Whether the ratio is 40/60 or the down is 2nd and 7 instead of 2nd and 10 that doesn't excuse the turnovers. Sooner or later he will be in a passing situation... 

 

Running won't stop turnovers and losses (especially when Ivory put the ball on the carpet in the first half, which is a whole nother discussion).

The only thing we do know is that the ground and pound era is dead and no one wants it back.

[peebag]

You take what the defense gives you.

[Bugg]

Any rule changes, be it the NFL, MLB, the NHL or the NBA are always going to be designed to help the offense. When was the last time a league implemented a rule that helped the defense ?

 

The lords of the NFL have set this up now where it is to your advantage to throw the football. Now does it work ? For a lot, yes. But I look at the Giants right now who have zero running game and have to right now basically rely on Eli and he went and threw what 4 picks against Denver ? They don't look like a Super Bowl contender right now but it is still early.

 

You take a look at a team right now like Seattle, who could very well be the best team in the NFC they have run the ball through their first two games more than they have thrown it.

 

Right now I think the Jets need some kind of a running game so it doesn't fall all on Geno's shoulders right now. Maybe in a yearm when the games starts to slow down for him and they get some receivers they can open it up more.

One quibble-when a QB scrambles for a gain after a pass play breaks down that is considered a rushing attempt. So the Seahawks, Skins and Niners all have QBs who's skill sets tend to make passing plays turn into successful rushes. I odn't know how you figure that in, but again mkore proof this is a pass first NFL.

[JoeKlecko]

HUH?

 

Against Tampa the Jets passed the ball 39 times, and ran it 25

 

Against the Pats they passed the ball 35 times and ran it 32

 

That comes out to  56% pass. and 44% run.

 

Thanks.  Bitonti has already quoted the percentages.  I was purely guessing.  I was shocked when he quoted the percentages and I'm still shocked.  I can't believe the Jets ran the ball that many times.  It truly seemed as if they were passing the ball 80-90% of the time.

[Bugg]

Thanks.  Bitonti has already quoted the percentages.  I was purely guessing.  I was shocked when he quoted the percentages and I'm still shocked.  I can't believe the Jets ran the ball that many times.  It truly seemed as if they were passing the ball 80-90% of the time.

Also Geno ran 3 times for 17 yards all pass attempt scrambles, so those are considered rushes instead of pass attempts.The breakdown is really 42/22.

[Sperm Edwards]

Thanks.  Bitonti has already quoted the percentages.  I was purely guessing.  I was shocked when he quoted the percentages and I'm still shocked.  I can't believe the Jets ran the ball that many times.  It truly seemed as if they were passing the ball 80-90% of the time.

 

He's wrong again.  The ratio is 2:1.  Not the nearly 50/50 it was made out to be, as he well knows.  Mornhinweg is fully calling in 2 pass plays for every 1 running play.

 

I outlined it on the previous page:

 

Either people can't count or are only counting what they want to for the purpose of slanting stats to show something other than what really happened. Suggesting we're attempting to pass the ball only 56% of the time is based on a 74:57 total ratio.  But that is a bullsh*t ratio.

 

Geno's been sacked 9 times.  Those are all designed pass plays.  That makes the real ratio 83:57.

 

Geno's scrambled 9 times, on designed pass plays, that are being counted as running plays.  That makes the real ratio 92:46.

 

92 pass plays called, out of 138 plays is a 2:1 ratio.  For every 1 running play called, there have been 2 passing plays called.

 

[bitonti]

That 2:1 ratio sounds bad but only if you compare it to the real stats. If every team counted scramble and sacks, what would the base line be for all teams? Can't compare apples to oranges

[Larz]

He's wrong again.  The ratio is 2:1.  Not the nearly 50/50 it was made out to be, as he well knows.  Mornhinweg is fully calling in 2 pass plays for every 1 running play.

 

I outlined it on the previous page:

 

in the west coast offense, aren't a lot of the plays "long hand-offs?"

[Sperm Edwards]

in the west coast offense, aren't a lot of the plays "long hand-offs?"

Depending on the QB, even short passes can be picked off by defensive linemen (and certainly the QB can fumble or get sacked. They're still pass attempts.