Lupica: The De-Rexing of Rex Ryan

[jgb]

WIth a HC like Rex you have to accept the bad with the good. If you take away the "bad" (bravado at inopportune times, cockiness) you also take away the confidence and the enthusiasm that wins games. Idzik shouldn't be playing build-a-boy with Rex, he should either keep him or dump him based on what he is.

[AFJF]

It will be the pit bulls of the world fault, because, without them, Vick would not have a stain on his life. his career would have been uninterrupted and he would be in better position to help the Jets, served on a platter to Rex.

 

Of course it would not be Rex's fault. There has not been a more abused person by the simple course off events in history.

 

No, if Vick sucks, it'll be becaus of Vick based on where he is in his career.  We know what he's capable of...he'll turn it over once or twice and get in the EZ tow or three times.  More TD's than turnovers...I'll take it.

[PatsFanTX]

The problem in a nutshell is perfectly described by this 6-game stretch:

We have Geno Smith.

They have Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Matt Stafford, Phillip Rivers, Peyton Manning & Tom Brady.

.

Tom Brady should not be included with that group of QB's.

[JustInFudge]

So when the Jets eventually start Vick and Vick sucks, will that be Rex's fault or...

 

Considering that Vick has never actually been very good...

[Warfish]

Do yourself, and the rest of us, a favor and compare Geno at this stage of his career to the franchise QB's you mention.  You will be surprised by the similarities...I sure was.

Same bullsh*t fantasy talk we heard about Sanchez the first two years.

Yes, a few greats had rough first, or even second, seasons.

And a whole lot more busts also had horrible first and second (and third and fourth if they go that much rope) seasons.

I.e. It's a logical fallasy to even imply that because a Peyton Manning had a bad first year, and a Geno Smith had a similarly bad first year, that they are anything alike projection wise.

Perfect example where stats "lie". Geno Smith is nothing like any of those franchise QB's listed, no matter what their first year numbers say. And one only need watch the games to see that rather clearly.

I'd suggest you do yourself a favor, and stop living in a dreamworld where Geno Smith is going to be great if we just wait a while. It isn't going to happen.

[AFJF]

Same bullsh*t fantasy talk we heard about Sanchez the first two years.

Yes, a few greats had rough first, or even second, seasons.

And a whole lot more busts also had horrible first and second (and third and fourth if they go that much rope) seasons.

I.e. It's a logical fallasy to even imply that because a Peyton Manning had a bad first year, and a Geno Smith had a similarly bad first year, that they are anything alike projection wise.

Perfect example where stats "lie". Geno Smith is nothing like any of those franchise QB's listed, no matter what their first year numbers say. And one only need watch the games to see that rather clearly.

I'd suggest you do yourself a favor, and stop living in a dreamworld where Geno Smith is going to be great if we just wait a while. It isn't going to happen.

 

A lot of people point to the Peyton rookie year argument when the QB is terrible, but they don't break it down by each half of that season.  After the mid way point, Peyton was a different QB.  It took  him eight games before he showed vast improvement.  For Geno, after twenty games...we've seen some improvement, but not nearly as much as Peyton.

 

First 8 games 11 TD/16 INT...horrible.

Next 8 games 15 TD/14 INT...more TD's than INT...that's good.

 

First 8 games- 58% comp or better three times

Second 8 games- 58% comp or better five times

 

 

Geno:

First 8 games- 8 TD/13 INT

Next 8 games- 4 TD/8INT

 

First 8 games- 58% comp or better four times

Next 8 games- 58 % comp or better two times

[Integrity28]

Last year he had a terrible cap situation and did an excellent job cleaning it up in just one year. He also had one great draft pick in Sheldon Richardson, a guy who this board went into a collective frenzy over because it was proof positive that Rex was still making all the picks. Lol. He did very well with the Revis trade and the Ivory trade. There was a lot to like. But with the cap situation, he was graded on a curve. No one expected to field a talented team - and they didn't.

But this year, he had a ton of picks and a ton of cash, and they still didn't field a talented team.

 

Trust me, I get it.

 

I'm rooting for a sophomore slump. Rex did things I loved and did things I hated in his first 2 years, by his 3rd year I reached my conclusion on him. I still want him to "get it", but he never seems to. I figured by year 3 with Idzik, I and everyone else will have a true sense for what he brings to the table. 

 

So... we'll see.

[AFJF]

Trust me, I get it.

 

I'm rooting for a sophomore slump. Rex did things I loved and did things I hated in his first 2 years, by his 3rd year I reached my conclusion on him. I still want him to "get it", but he never seems to. I figured by year 3 with Idzik, I and everyone else will have a true sense for what he brings to the table. 

 

So... we'll see.

 

I admire your optimism, and I guess you and I are just a year off in  how much we'll tolerate from Idzik.  I gave him a pass for year one becuase he didn't have much cap room to work with.  I said he should get some slack for pretty much sitting on his hands this off-season becasue we should give his plan time to work.  However, it looks like this team is better than he thought they would be, and as the GM he should have a better idea as to what they're putting on the field.  As I said yesterday, he either didn't know  how good his own team was going to be, which is bad, or  he knew how good his team was going to be and knowingly did nothing to put them over the top, and I'm not sure which one is worse.

[Integrity28]

I admire your optimism, and I guess you and I are just a year off in  how much we'll tolerate from Idzik.  I gave him a pass for year one becuase he didn't have much cap room to work with.  I said he should get some slack for pretty much sitting on his hands this off-season becasue we should give his plan time to work.  However, it looks like this team is better than he thought they would be, and as the GM he should have a better idea as to what they're putting on the field.  As I said yesterday, he either didn't know  how good his own team was going to be, which is bad, or  he knew how good his team was going to be and knowingly did nothing to put them over the top, and I'm not sure which one is worse.

 

Fair enough.

 

I thought we'd come crashing back to reality this year, personally. I had very low expectations for this season.

[jgb]

Fair enough.

 

I thought we'd come crashing back to reality this year, personally. I had very low expectations for this season.

 

jets are 1-3 and our expectations are exceeded. screw this team lol

[jack48]

Also, it's one big blabber fest that basically says, "it's everyone's fault but Rex".

 

 

Lupica is a boob.  So he decided to jump on and write about the Jets?  

[AFJF]

Fair enough.

 

I thought we'd come crashing back to reality this year, personally. I had very low expectations for this season.

 

I went into this year saying that I can't remember the last time I looked at  Jets team that I could see wining as few as six, or as many as twelve games.  I knew they'd be able to shut down the run and run the ball well.  Once you can do those two things, you have something to work with.  I thought that if we got decent CB play we'd have a shot to win a bunch of games if we could stop turning it over 25+ times a year.  However, that seems to be something we should expect every season.  With 25+ turnovers being the norm, I guess they'll always be closer to that six win mark. 

[Integrity28]

I went into this year saying that I can't remember the last time I looked at  Jets team that I could see wining as few as six, or as many as twelve games.  I knew they'd be able to shut down the run and run the ball well.  Once you can do those two things, you have something to work with.  I thought that if we got decent CB play we'd have a shot to win a bunch of games if we could stop turning it over 25+ times a year.  However, that seems to be something we should expect every season.  With 25+ turnovers being the norm, I guess they'll always be closer to that six win mark. 

 

I expected us to stop the run. I expected us to be grossly streaky running the ball. I figured our secondary would suck no matter what, because we're playing every great QB in football and the new rules make the CB mostly obsolete. I said it a ton in the preseason, the best way to ruin another teams passing game is to hit their QB. Secondary players  have been mostly neutered. We make teams throw at us, which with this roster and these rules, is going to get us burned. 

 

We stay in games, for the reasons you mention. We lost them because we can't create turnovers and we've had 25+ turnovers by our offense for almost a decade now. Without looking it up, I want to say Chad in Mangini's first year was the last time we were on the right side of the turnover ratio.

[AFJF]

I expected us to stop the run. I expected us to be grossly streaky running the ball. I figured our secondary would suck no matter what, because we're playing every great QB in football and the new rules make the CB mostly obsolete. I said it a ton in the preseason, the best way to ruin another teams passing game is to hit their QB. Secondary players  have been mostly neutered. We make teams throw at us, which with this roster and these rules, is going to get us burned. 

 

We stay in games, for the reasons you mention. We lost them because we can't create turnovers and we've had 25+ turnovers by our offense for almost a decade now. Without looking it up, I want to say Chad in Mangini's first year was the last time we were on the right side of the turnover ratio.

 

Per ESPN...with the exception of 2010 and 2004, we've been meh, or horrible.

 

2014 -5

2013 -13

2012 -10

2011 +3

2010 +9

2009 +1

2008 0

2007 -2

2006 +1

2005 0

2004 +18

[slats]

Trust me, I get it.

 

I'm rooting for a sophomore slump. Rex did things I loved and did things I hated in his first 2 years, by his 3rd year I reached my conclusion on him. I still want him to "get it", but he never seems to. I figured by year 3 with Idzik, I and everyone else will have a true sense for what he brings to the table. 

 

So... we'll see.

Two years in, and my opinion on Idzik hasn't really changed since he was first hired - that he's much better on the money side of the business than the talent acquiring side. After Tannenbaum, I really wanted a talent guy in place as GM.

I agree, we'll see. Next year he's going to have something absurd, like $50-60M in cap space to work with, and a mandate to spend at least to the cap floor over the next two years. It should be interesting. If he intentionally held onto all that money because he sees Rex as one foot out the door, well, I'm not thrilled with that, either. That half-assing starts at the ownership level, though.

The most frustrating thing is that once again, and it's been Rex's entire tenure here, if we had merely competent QB play the record would be much better. And I know the anti-Rex crowd's answer to that is that's Rex's fault, but I'm in the camp that it's an institutional thing. Holding onto Tannenbaum too long, Schottenheimer too long, Bradway too long... And I know the response to that is Rex too long, too, but I just see Rex having success at his next stop if he lands somewhere with nothing more or less than an average QB.

[bitonti]

Has there ever been another coach in the history of the NFL, whose accountability does not just extend to W's and L's?

 

He's the second winningest coach in Jets history. And the all time playoff wins leader. 

[AFJF]

Two years in, and my opinion on Idzik hasn't really changed since he was first hired - that he's much better on the money side of the business than the talent acquiring side. After Tannenbaum, I really wanted a talent guy in place as GM.

I agree, we'll see. Next year he's going to have something absurd, like $50-60M in cap space to work with, and a mandate to spend at least to the cap floor over the next two years. It should be interesting. If he intentionally held onto all that money because he sees Rex as one foot out the door, well, I'm not thrilled with that, either. That half-assing starts at the ownership level, though.

The most frustrating thing is that once again, and it's been Rex's entire tenure here, if we had merely competent QB play the record would be much better. And I know the anti-Rex crowd's answer to that is that's Rex's fault, but I'm in the camp that it's an institutional thing. Holding onto Tannenbaum too long, Schottenheimer too long, Bradway too long... And I know the response to that is Rex too long, too, but I just see Rex having success at his next stop if he lands somewhere with nothing more or less than an average QB.

 

Been saying that for a while now...Jets will dump Rex and he'll go somewhere with a decent QB and win some rings.

[bitonti]

  I just see Rex having success at his next stop if he lands somewhere with nothing more or less than an average QB.

 

John Fox is not a better coach than Rex Ryan. He's just got a far better QB.

[Integrity28]

Two years in, and my opinion on Idzik hasn't really changed since he was first hired - that he's much better on the money side of the business than the talent acquiring side. After Tannenbaum, I really wanted a talent guy in place as GM.

I agree, we'll see. Next year he's going to have something absurd, like $50-60M in cap space to work with, and a mandate to spend at least to the cap floor over the next two years. It should be interesting. If he intentionally held onto all that money because he sees Rex as one foot out the door, well, I'm not thrilled with that, either. That half-assing starts at the ownership level, though.

The most frustrating thing is that once again, and it's been Rex's entire tenure here, if we had merely competent QB play the record would be much better. And I know the anti-Rex crowd's answer to that is that's Rex's fault, but I'm in the camp that it's an institutional thing. Holding onto Tannenbaum too long, Schottenheimer too long, Bradway too long... And I know the response to that is Rex too long, too, but I just see Rex having success at his next stop if he lands somewhere with nothing more or less than an average QB.

 

I agree with everything you are saying... that said, I do think Rex will always be a victim of his own limitations as a coach. Can he win with a legit QB? Sure, most middling coaches can. It won't a lot of the other slop that has become the standard with him.

 

Frankly, I'm not confident he'll be given another shot as HC. He's become one of the highest paid DCs in football in a heartbeat though.

[PatsFanTX]

John Fox is not a better coach than Rex Ryan. He's just got a far better QB.

That is totally ridiculous.

John Fox took 2 teams to the Super Bowl, one with friggn' Jake Delhomme as his QB.

In 6 years, Rex has never won a Division title, Conference championship or Super Bowl and is barely a .500 HC.

Other than blind homerism, what could possibly make you think Rex is a better HC than John Fox???

[JetsFanInDenver]

Idzik hit a solid double in his first draft. In this last draft it did look promising for a while when the ball was up in the air but all he did was a fly out moving the first base runner to second base. Those kind of drafts don't a franchise make.

[C Mart]

I actually agree completely with that thought process, but not when your roster has so little talent on it. This early in the process, you need hit on some of these picks. When you get to the point the Pats are at, you can afford to dump guys left and right because you have (or had) a nucleus in place that could overcome bad picks. Having very little talent and whiffing horribly on mid-round picks is not a good thing.

Maybe if Rex didn't want D players within the rounds 1-3 every year you could get more O talent. Don't think for a second Rex doesn't have a voice in the warroom.

Since '09 7 O players have been drafted within the 1st 3 rounds + (a 2nd used for Sanchez & a 3rd for BE) and 11 picks used for D (including a 2nd for Cro)

And in those 6 yrs of Drafts 6 picks within 1st 2 rounds were used on O players (including a 2nd for Sanchez). 1 was a 1st rounder (Sanchez). 1.

Of course the media never points this out.

[AFJF]

Maybe if Rex didn't want D players within the rounds 1-3 every year you could get more O talent. Don't think for a second Rex doesn't have a voice in the warroom.

Since '09 7 O players have been drafted within the 1st 3 rounds + (a 2nd used for Sanchez & a 3rd for BE) and 11 picks used for D (including a 2nd for Cro)

And in those 6 yrs of Drafts 6 picks within 1st 2 rounds were used on O players (including a 2nd for Sanchez)

Of course the media never points this out.

 

Of course Rex has a voice in the war room. What NFL HC doesn't?  At the end of the day, it's the GM who makes the pick.  It's his job and what he is there for.  If Rex likes a player, it's the GM's job to say "thanks for your input Rex, but we're going with somebody else".  If the GM is too scared to do his job, he shouldn't be the GM.

[C Mart]

Of course Rex has a voice in the war room. What NFL HC doesn't? At the end of the day, it's the GM who makes the pick. It's his job and what he is there for. If Rex likes a player, it's the GM's job to say "thanks for your input Rex, but we're going with somebody else". If the GM is too scared to do his job, he shouldn't be the GM.

And it's the HC's job to consider his whole team & it's best interests bNot 1 side of the ball.

[AFJF]

And it's the HC's job to consider his whole team & it's best interests bNot 1 side of the ball.

 

How much time does he spend on the offensive game plan with MM every week?

[Bugg]

So a "columnist" who doesn't attend Jets games(or any games really) and has never put Florham Park in his GPS has all the answers. 

 

May be not. After all, this is a guy who on the rare occasion he goes to Mets spirng training fellates the Wilpons  verbally and otherwise without ever asking a question with the word "Madoff" in it. And besides he's down there anyway. It's hard to ask questions when youir mouth is full. 

 

There is plenty of blame to go around. Ryan has done a less than wonderful job. Idzik has done a bad job. But SOMEBODY told Idzik  not to spend over $20 million in cap room for 2014. And that somebody is the main problem with the franchise. 

[AFJF]

So a "columnist" who doesn't attend Jets games(or any games really) and has never put Florham Park in his GPS has all the answers. 

 

May be not. After all, this is a guy who on the rare occasion he goes to Mets spirng training fellates the Wilpons  verbally and otherwise without ever asking a question with the word "Madoff" in it. And besides he's down there anyway. It's hard to ask questions when youir mouth is full. 

 

There is plenty of blame to go around. Ryan has done a less than wonderful job. Idzik has done a bad job. But SOMEBODY told Idzik  not to spend over $20 million in cap room for 2014. And that somebody is the main problem with the franchise. 

 

I get the frustration, but Lupica is commenting largely on Rex acknowledging that Geno's playing time is not solely his decision.  As far as who told Idzik what to spend, it's pure speculation.  The new CBA will force  him to spend it eventually, so there's no sense in refusing to do so.  No, I am not saying that they should have been wreckless and spent to the cap, that would be stupid.  However, $10 mil and a re-worked contract or two could have gotten them some players who could have helped this team win now and in the future, with $10 mil in cap space to spare.

[jgb]

So a "columnist" who doesn't attend Jets games(or any games really) and has never put Florham Park in his GPS has all the answers. 

 

May be not. After all, this is a guy who on the rare occasion he goes to Mets spirng training fellates the Wilpons  verbally and otherwise without ever asking a question with the word "Madoff" in it. And besides he's down there anyway. It's hard to ask questions when youir mouth is full. 

 

There is plenty of blame to go around. Ryan has done a less than wonderful job. Idzik has done a bad job. But SOMEBODY told Idzik  not to spend over $20 million in cap room for 2014. And that somebody is the main problem with the franchise. 

 

Not sure anyone told him. Woody didn't mind Tanny making it rain. Idzik didn't think team could make a run this year and decided to roll it over after we know what we have in Geno. Can't fault him for that plan. In NFL you have to evaulate when you are in a window and go all out. It condemns the franchise to salary cap hell for 3-5 years but worth it if you contend for a couple years during that window. Then you start the process over again.

 

The question is whether Idzik is forcing Rex to continue with the original plan despite Geno regressing and the team being in a position to actually win the AFCE. Unbelievably there is a real chance to make the playoffs this year. You never sacrifice a potential playoff year if you can help it. Let's see what we got in dogkiller, maybe he can be enough of an incremental improvement to bring us these close games. At worst, we can determine if he has enough in the tank to be a caretaker next year while the next "Franchise QB of the Future" sits and develops or whether we need to both draft a new QB and bring in another journeyman babysitter. Do not trust this team to develop a highly drafted QB by throwing him into week 1 of his rookie season.

[RutgersJetFan]

He’s a sports writer for the Daily News. I find him very insightful…

[AFJF]

Not sure anyone told him. Woody didn't mind Tanny making it rain. Idzik didn't think team could make a run this year and decided to roll it over after we know what we have in Geno. Can't fault him for that plan. In NFL you have to evaulate when you are in a window and go all out. It condemns the franchise to salary cap hell for 3-5 years but worth it if you contend for a couple years during that window. Then you start the process over again.

 

The question is whether Idzik is forcing Rex to continue with the original plan despite Geno regressing and the team being in a position to actually win the AFCE. Unbelievably there is a real chance to make the playoffs this year. You never sacrifice a potential playoff year if you can help it. Let's see what we got in dogkiller, maybe he can be enough of an incremental improvement to bring us these close games. At worst, we can determine if he has enough in the tank to be a caretaker next year while the next "Franchise QB of the Future" sits and develops or whether we need to both draft a new QB and bring in another journeyman babysitter. Do not trust this team to develop a highly drafted QB by throwing him into week 1 of their rookie season.

 

The bold is what's driving me crazy.  I can't believe how many fans are just fine with losing games by a TD with arguably the worst QB in the NFL.  I said earlier, I'll play the "what if Vick is terrible too" game when everyone also plays the "what if he's better than Geno" game.  Until he plays, we don't know, but we know what we've gotten from Geno...league leading interceptions and terrible in the red zone.

[Bugg]

Not sure anyone told him. Woody didn't mind Tanny making it rain. Idzik didn't think team could make a run this year and decided to roll it over after we know what we have in Geno. Can't fault him for that plan. In NFL you have to evaulate when you are in a window and go all out. It condemns the franchise to salary cap hell for 3-5 years but worth it if you contend for a couple years during that window. Then you start the process over again.

 

The question is whether Idzik is forcing Rex to continue with the original plan despite Geno regressing and the team being in a position to actually win the AFCE. Unbelievably there is a real chance to make the playoffs this year. You never sacrifice a potential playoff year if you can help it. Let's see what we got in dogkiller, maybe he can be enough of an incremental improvement to bring us these close games. At worst, we can determine if he has enough in the tank to be a caretaker next year while the next "Franchise QB of the Future" sits and develops or whether we need to both draft a new QB and bring in another journeyman babysitter. Do not trust this team to develop a highly drafted QB by throwing him into week 1 of his rookie season.

We have an owner that thinks drumlines and cheerleaders make up for spending up to the cap.He allowed his personal dislike of Revis to impact what should have been a business decision.  He hired Herman Edwards over John Fox and Marv Lewis, Idzik over Gamble and Ross. He has yet to fire Terry Bradway. He allowed Parcells and bellicheat to walk out the door. Under Johnson we have  never made getting a real QB a priority. 

 

I may not be a fan of Ryan nor Idzik nor Smith. But the problem with this franchise is the owner. 

[jgb]

The bold is what's driving me crazy.  I can't believe how many fans are just fine with losing games by a TD with arguably the worst QB in the NFL.  I said earlier, I'll play the "what if Vick is terrible too" game when everyone also plays the "what if he's better than Geno" game.  Until he plays, we don't know, but we know what we've gotten from Geno...league leading interceptions and terrible in the red zone.

 

If pats were 4-0 or 3-1 right now and looking like they usually do I might feel differently. But they are on the ropes. Let's at least swing for a knock out. The division is a disaster. This is the year to ask "why not us?"

[jgb]

We have an owner that thinks drumlines and cheerleaders make up for spending up to the cap.He allowed his personal dislike of Revis to impact what should have been a business decision.  He hired Herman Edwards over John Fox and Marv Lewis, Idzik over Gamble and Ross. He has yet to fire Terry Bradway. He allowed Parcells and bellicheat to walk out the door. Under Johnson we have  never made getting a real QB a priority. 

 

I may not be a fan of Ryan nor Idzik nor Smith. But the problem with this franchise is the owner. 

 

Ultimately it is on the owner. He makes the decisions or hires the people who make the decisions. His reputation and/or meddling has made it impossible/difficult to get elite football executives to want to be here.

[T0mShane]

Been saying that for a while now...Jets will dump Rex and he'll go somewhere with a decent QB and win some rings.

Same was said about Herm.

[AFJF]

Same was said about Herm.

Wha??? Who the eff said that? Herm? Sure as hell wasn't me.